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Warriors vs. Rockets SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on Steph Curry and Alperen Sengun

The Golden State Warriors look to wrap up their series with the Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is up 3-1 and should have Jimmy Butler in the lineup, which makes a big difference for its chances to succeed. I’ll back the Warriors on an alternate spread with two prop picks on Alperen Sengun and Steph Curry in this +310 SGP.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on April 30.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

Parlay: Warriors +7.5 | Sengun 10+ rebounds | Curry over 5.5 assists (+310)

Warriors +7.5 (-205): The Warriors had a scary moment in Game 2 when Butler left after just seven minutes of action. They went on to lose that game in Houston by 15.

Butler returned for Game 4, however, scoring 27 points and leading Golden State to a 109-106 win. This series is notably different when he’s involved.

The Warriors went 23-7 with Butler in the lineup during the regular season.

They are 3-0 in this series when Butler plays the full game.

Butler is on the injury report, listed as probable, so I’m not worried about his availability.

I don’t hate Golden State’s chances of leaving Houston with the series win, but this spread gives us a huge cushion on the away side in case the Rockets squeak one out.

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NBA SGP legs

Sengun 10+ rebounds (-215): The Rockets’ big man has been a consistent force on the boards in this series.

He cleared this total in three of four games, finishing with nine in the outlier.

It isn’t very surprising considering the Warriors run Draymond Green a lot at centre. An elite defender, no doubt, but at 6-foot-6, he gives up five inches to Sengun.

Containing opposing bigs has been a problem all season long for Golden State. It gave up the third-most rebounds to centres per game (16.32) during the regular season, per Fantasy Pros.

Sengun should see a lot of run in this must-win game, which means more opportunities for rebounds.

He’s averaging 11.5 boards so far in the playoffs.

Curry over 5.5 assists (-110): Curry has had mixed results against this line in this series.

He’s 2-2 on this wager, finishing with nine assists twice and three assists in the other two games.

What I am interested in, though, is his 11.3 potential assists per game. That stat tracks every pass Curry makes that leads directly to a shot for a teammate.

He’s also playing north of 39 minutes a night, so he should easily get over 10 potential assists again.

In that case, it’s on the other Warriors, and I have increased confidence in them with Butler in the mix.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 9:35 a.m. ET 04/30/2025.

Madrid Open round of 16 predictions: Best bets on De Minaur vs. Musetti, Dimitrov vs. Diallo

The round of 16 begins at the Madrid Open on Wednesday, and I have a pick on the only Canadian left in action.

The pregame narrative: Surprisingly, that is Gabriel Diallo, as the 23-year-old has outlasted all fellow Canadians. However, I’m backing his opponent, Grigor Dimitrov, to win this matchup comfortably. After that, bet on Lorenzo Musetti as the underdog in his match.

Check out my top Madrid Open predictions for April 30.

Madrid Open predictions

Best Bet: Dimitrov -1.5 sets (+123)

I’m a big fan of Diallo, but there are many reasons to fade him here.

Dimitrov, the No. 16-ranked player, is 5-1 on clay this year.

He has played two matches at the Madrid Open, equalling just over three and a half hours of playing time.

Diallo has taken part in five matches, which totals out to just under seven hours on the court.

The Canadian may be a decade younger than his competitor, but I find it hard to think Dimitrov won’t have the stamina advantage on Wednesday.

He’s just flat out the better player, too. Dimitrov had a 46-18 record in 2024 and is 14-7 in 2025.

Diallo, on the other hand, is ranked No. 78 in the world and carries a 16-12 record this year (6-4 on clay).

Key stat: Dimitrov is 11-3 since the start of March with the losses coming against De Minaur (No. 7), Novak Djokovic (No. 5) and Carlos Alcaraz (No. 3).

Visit full Madrid Open betting markets.

Quick pick

Musetti to win (+110): Musetti is finding his groove at 23 years of age and developing into one of ATP’s top players.

The Italian is the highest he’s ever been ranked (No. 11) thanks to a 14-5 start this season. That includes an 8-1 record on clay.

It’s been his best playing surface throughout his career, as his 126-67 record stands out compared to his 107-99 record on all other surfaces combined.

In comparison, De Minaur has his worst winning percentage on clay (57.6%). Additionally, he lost to Musetti on the surface earlier this month (1-6, 6-4, 7-6).

Overall, Musetti is 2-1 in his career vs. the Australian.

Madrid Open predictions made at 4:48 p.m. on 04/29/2025.

Madrid Open round of 16 predictions: Best bets on De Minaur vs. Musetti, Dimitrov vs. Diallo

The round of 16 begins at the Madrid Open on Wednesday, and I have a pick on the only Canadian left in action.

The pregame narrative: Surprisingly, that is Gabriel Diallo, as the 23-year-old has outlasted all fellow Canadians. However, I’m backing his opponent, Grigor Dimitrov, to win this matchup comfortably. After that, bet on Lorenzo Musetti as the underdog in his match.

Check out my top Madrid Open predictions for April 30.

Madrid Open predictions

Visit full Madrid Open betting markets.

Best Bet: Dimitrov -1.5 sets (+115)

I’m a big fan of Diallo, but there are many reasons to fade him here.

Dimitrov, the No. 16-ranked player, is 5-1 on clay this year.

He has played two matches at the Madrid Open, equalling just over three and a half hours of playing time.

Diallo has taken part in five matches, which totals out to just under seven hours on the court.

The Canadian may be a decade younger than his competitor, but I find it hard to think Dimitrov won’t have the stamina advantage on Wednesday.

He’s just flat out the better player, too. Dimitrov had a 46-18 record in 2024 and is 14-7 in 2025.

Diallo, on the other hand, is ranked No. 78 in the world and carries a 16-12 record this year (6-4 on clay).

Key stat: Dimitrov is 11-3 since the start of March with the losses coming against De Minaur (No. 7), Novak Djokovic (No. 5) and Carlos Alcaraz (No. 3).

Quick pick

Musetti to win (+110): Musetti is finding his groove at 23 years of age and developing into one of ATP’s top players.

The Italian is the highest he’s ever been ranked (No. 11) thanks to a 14-5 start this season. That includes an 8-1 record on clay.

It’s been his best playing surface throughout his career, as his 126-67 record stands out compared to his 107-99 record on all other surfaces combined.

In comparison, De Minaur has his worst winning percentage on clay (57.6%). Additionally, he lost to Musetti on the surface earlier this month (1-6, 6-4, 7-6).

Overall, Musetti is 2-1 in his career vs. the Australian.

Madrid Open predictions made at 2:31 p.m. on 04/29/2025.

NHL playoff anytime goalscorer picks April 30: Bet on Kyle Connor, Alex Ovechkin to score

I’ve got a goalscorer pick from all three NHL playoff games on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals are up 3-1 and heading back home with a chance to send the Montreal Canadiens packing. Take Ovi to score while backing Kyle Connor and Jake Guentzel later on in the evening.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 30.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Ovechkin to score (+105)

An early goal from Ovechkin would send the Capital One Arena into a frenzy. Plus, it would cash this bet without worry.

The game is long, however, and Washington’s captain is still one of the best goal scorers in the NHL at the age of 39.

Ovechkin missed 17 games recovering from an injury but still scored 44 goals which equalled the second most per game in the league (0.68).

That average is Ovechkin’s highest since his 48-goal campaign in 2019-20.

He carried that momentum into the postseason, scoring two goals in the opening game of this series. Overall, he’s 2-2 against this wager.

Montreal’s conceded three or more goals in every game so far, so I like Ovechkin’s chances of getting on the board against a weaker defence.

Key stat: The Habs allowed the 11th most goals (3.18) and 10th most shots (29.1) per game this season.

NHL prop predictions

Guentzel to score (+155): Guentzel leads his team and ranks 11th in the NHL with 2.3 expected goals in these playoffs.

He’s been hugely effective in this series, tallying five points (two goals) through four games. He has the trust of coach Jon Cooper in big moments, playing over 24 minutes in Game 4.

The stakes only get higher as the Tampa Bay Lightning need a win on Wednesday to stay alive in this series.

I’ll take some nice value on a proven career playoff performer coming off a 41-goal season.

Guentzel has 40 goals in 73 playoff games.

Connor to score (+125): The Winnipeg Jets looked in control of their series with the St. Louis Blues, but the underdogs have stormed back to tie things at two apiece.

Winnipeg’s top scorer held his end of the bargain, though. Connor is 3-1 against this line and has both game-winning goals in the pair of wins.

Connor had 41 goals and a career-best 97 points this season.

The Jets have scored seven times at home and only three times on the road in this series, so expect an uptick in offence for Winnipeg.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

NHL playoff anytime goalscorer picks April 30: Bet on Kyle Connor, Alex Ovechkin to score

I’ve got a goalscorer pick from all three NHL playoff games on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals are up 3-1 and heading back home with a chance to send the Montreal Canadiens packing. Take Ovi to score while backing Kyle Connor and Jake Guentzel later on in the evening.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for April 30.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Ovechkin to score (+105)

An early goal from Ovechkin would send the Capital One Arena into a frenzy. Plus, it would cash this bet without worry.

The game is long, however, and Washington’s captain is still one of the best goal scorers in the NHL at the age of 39.

Ovechkin missed 17 games recovering from an injury but still scored 44 goals which equalled the second most per game in the league (0.68).

That average is Ovechkin’s highest since his 48-goal campaign in 2019-20.

He carried that momentum into the postseason, scoring two goals in the opening game of this series. Overall, he’s 2-2 against this wager.

Montreal’s conceded three or more goals in every game so far, so I like Ovechkin’s chances of getting on the board against a weaker defence.

Key stat: The Habs allowed the 11th most goals (3.18) and 10th most shots (29.1) per game this season.

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NHL prop predictions

Guentzel to score (+190): Guentzel leads his team and ranks 11th in the NHL with 2.3 expected goals in these playoffs.

He’s been hugely effective in this series, tallying five points (two goals) through four games. He has the trust of coach Jon Cooper in big moments, playing over 24 minutes in Game 4.

The stakes only get higher as the Tampa Bay Lightning need a win on Wednesday to stay alive in this series.

I’ll take some nice value on a proven career playoff performer coming off a 41-goal season.

Guentzel has 40 goals in 73 playoff games.

Connor to score (+125): The Winnipeg Jets looked in control of their series with the St. Louis Blues, but the underdogs have stormed back to tie things at two apiece.

Winnipeg’s top scorer held his end of the bargain, though. Connor is 3-1 against this line and has both game-winning goals in the pair of wins.

Connor had 41 goals and a career-best 97 points this season.

The Jets have scored seven times at home and only three times on the road in this series, so expect an uptick in offence for Winnipeg.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions SGP Game 5: Target Matthew Knies to stay productive

The Toronto Maple Leafs have another chance to close things out against the Ottawa Senators.

The pregame narrative: Ottawa kept its season alive with a Game 4 overtime win. The series shifts back to Toronto and I’m taking the Leafs to win. This +350 SGP includes picks on Matthew Knies and Tim Stutzle, too.

Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on April 29.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions

Parlay: Maple Leafs ML | Knies to score 1+ points | Stutzle to score 1+ points (+350)

Maple Leafs moneyline (-176): I’m sure many Leafs fans are starting to get flashbacks as the nerves creep in before Game 5.

But I’m not so worried. This Toronto team is different, and that started at home this season.

The Leafs were 27-13-1 when playing at Scotiabank Arena.

Coming into the postseason, Toronto won the final nine games at home. It then used home-ice advantage to take a 2-0 series lead.

Three straight games in this series have gone to overtime, but I expect a performance similar to Game 1, where the Leafs won 6-2.

Ottawa is a lacklustre 18-21-4 on the road this year, including the playoffs.

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NHL SGP legs

Knies to score 1+ points (-165): The first-line winger has goals in three of the four games in this series.

He’s yet to record an assist, but playing with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on the top line will continue to provide Knies with opportunities to find his way onto the score sheet.

Knies is also a part of the always dangerous five-forward player-play unit that also includes John Tavares and William Nylander.

The Leafs went 5-for-13 (38.5%) with the man advantage through the first four games.

Toronto should be buzzing at home, led by the top line and power play. Both of which include Knies, who has a reasonable price on his point prop.

Stutzle to score 1+ points (-148): Stutzle was Ottawa’s driving force this year, scoring 79 points in 82 games.

He’s been rather quiet in this series, but still has a point in two of the first four games. If I include the regular season, Stutzle is 5-2 against the line vs. the Leafs.

Game 4 was also a must-win for the Senators, and their top centre was on the ice a ton. He played north of 23 minutes and scored a goal. He should carry a similar workload in another do-or-die Game 5.

If the Sens go down early, they will push relentlessly to even things up. If they take an early lead, I like the chances of Stutzle being involved in the play.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 9:33 a.m. ET 04/29/2025.

Jets vs. Blues Game 3 prop picks: Cole Perfetti primed for another big performance

The Winnipeg Jets take a 2-0 series lead on the road to visit the St. Louis Blues.

The pregame narrative: Cole Perfetti is currently breaking out as one of the Jets’ top forwards. I’m backing the newly minted right winger to grab an assist. Jordan Kyrou’s shots prop has my attention, too.

Check out my Jets vs. Blues prop picks for Game 3 of this first-round matchup in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Blues vs. Jets prop picks

Best Bet: Perfetti to score 1+ assists (+180)

The 23-year-old recorded his first career playoff point on Monday, getting the assist on Kyle Connor’s game-winning goal in the third period.

Perfetti had a career year, scoring 50 points while lacing up for the full 82 games.

However, I want to split his season into two to showcase how good he’s been since late January:

First 49 games: 25 points
Last 33 games: 25 points

As the year carried on, Perfetti found his groove, solidifying a solid floor as a point producer.

In response, Scott Arniel promoted the young gun up to the second line to play alongside Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov.

He also finds himself on the top power-play unit with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Both of whom finished in the top 17 in the NHL for points.

That puts him in a prime spot to record an assist.

Key stat: Perfetti has 10 points in 12 career games vs. the Blues.

Quick picks

Kyrou over 2.5 shots (-130): I went with this pick for Game 2, and Kyrou finished one shot shy of this mark.

But that won’t discourage me from jumping back on the wagon based on some solid underlying stats.

Kyrou led the Blues with 239 shots this season (2.9 per game).

He reached this total in nine of his past 11 games, including the playoffs.

He was slightly more productive at home, too. His shots per game inflated to 3.1 when playing in St. Louis.

The Jets averaged the fewest goals against this season (2.32) but the 10th fewest shots (27.2).

Thankfully, Kyrou doesn’t have to beat Connor Hellebuyck to cash this wager. Instead, he only has to pepper a few shots on target in a must-win Game 3.

Blues vs. Jets prop picks made at 4:52 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Madrid Open round of 64 predictions: Best bets on Canadians Felix Auger-Aliassime and Bianca Andreescu

The Round of 64 at the Madrid Open begins on Friday, and I have picks for both Canadians in action.

The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is the first to play in the morning and I’m fading him based on a tough opponent as well as recent results. Later on, I’ll take a shot on Bianca Andreescu to keep her match competitive.

Check out my top Madrid Open predictions for April 25.

Madrid Open predictions

Best Bet: Cerundolo +1.5 sets (+110)

This is a partial fade against Auger-Aliassime, who can still win this match while cashing this wager.

Cerundolo is a specialist on clay courts. Of his 509 career contests, 382 have been played on clay, where he holds a strong 267-115 record (70.0% win rate).

In 2025, he’s accumulated a 12-5 record on the playing surface while Auger-Aliassime is 0-2 to this point.

The Canadian began his career as a beast on clay courts but has fallen off over the years. Since the start of 2020, he is 34-29 on the surface.

Additionally, Cerundolo is playing the best tennis of his career. The 26-year-old is 20-9 in all matches in 2025 and is coming off a semifinal appearance at Munich, a tournament also played on clay.

He ended up losing to No. 13-ranked Ben Shelton, but he did manage to cover this spread.

I don’t trust Auger-Aliassime right now, either. After a brilliant start to the year, the Canadian has lost four of his past five matches.

Key stat: Cerundolo has cashed this wager eight straight times on clay. That includes a recent three-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz, the No. 3-ranked player on tour.

Visit full Madrid Open betting markets.

Andreescu Madrid Open tennis pick

Andreescu +1.5 sets (+110): I don’t want to overreact and say Andreescu is back, but I feel good about the Canadian being able to win her fair share of games.

Technically, she could lose this match and still cover this modest line.

Andreescu missed a lengthy period of time recovering from multiple injuries. She lost her first match upon returning, but I’m willing to overlook her first go on clay since last July.

She looked much better in her second match, beating McCartney Kessler in straight sets (6-2, 6-4).

The competition gets much harder for the round of 64 as Andreescu takes on No. 11-ranked Elena Rybakina.

Rybakina is 17-7 in 2025 but has yet to play on a clay court. She has an 87-36 career record on the surface but could need time to accumulate in this match.

This is Rybakina’s worst run in a while, too. The 25-year-old’s 70.8% winning percentage this season is almost 10 points lower than her 79.6% win rate in 2024.

Madrid Open predictions made at 2:31 p.m. on 04/24/2025.

Premier League predictions Matchday 34: Back Mo Salah to break goalless drought

I’ve got one pick from each day of Premier League action this weekend.

The pregame narrative: Mo Salah and Liverpool have the EPL all but locked up, and I expect the Egyptian to find the back of the net against Tottenham on Sunday. Before that, take the under when Everton visits Chelsea.

Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 34.

Premier League predictions

Best Bet: Salah to score (-124)

It’s been the lowest point of Salah’s historical season, but that provides bettors with some value on this prop.

The forward went scoreless in Liverpool’s last four Premier League contests, but take a look at his advanced analytics this season:

1st in expected goals (23.8)
1st in expected goals on target (27.2)
1st in big chances (23)

Salah paces the EPL with 27 goals and scored in seven of the eight matches before this dry spell.

He’s 22-11 against this wager overall, which equals a 66.6% hit rate. That is higher than the 55.36% implied probability on this line.

Tottenham isn’t the same side as years past. The London club sits 16th on the table and allows the seventh most goals per game (1.5).

This is a good chance for the Reds to claim the EPL title, while Salah has the right matchup to contribute on offence

Key stat: In his one meeting with the Spurs in December, Salah had two goals on five shots in a 6-3 win for Liverpool.

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Go to full Premier League betting markets.

Quick pick

Chelsea/Everton under 2.5 goals (-104): Under David Moyes, Everton has been one of England’s best defensive sides.

It allows the fourth-fewest goals per match (1.2) and has gone under this total in nine of 14 games since Moyes was hired in January.

That includes seven straight EPL matches finishing below this total.

Chelsea is tied for fourth with Everton in terms of fewest goals against per game (1.2). The club has seen four of its last six EPL matches finish under this total.

In their first meeting in December, these sides drew 0-0 in a stalemate of a match.

I expect a similar result under Everton’s new tutelage.

Premier League predictions made at 3:33 p.m. on 04/24/2025.

Madrid Open round of 64 predictions: Best bets on Canadians Felix Auger-Aliassime and Bianca Andreescu

The Round of 64 at the Madrid Open begins on Friday, and I have picks for both Canadians in action.

The pregame narrative: Felix Auger-Aliassime is the first to play in the morning and I’m fading him based on a tough opponent as well as recent results. Later on, I’ll take a shot on Bianca Andreescu to keep her match competitive.

Check out my top Madrid Open predictions for April 25.

Madrid Open predictions

Best Bet: Cerundolo +1.5 sets (-124)