The fourth round continues at the French Open on Monday.
Today’s French Open narrative: The field is growing thin at Roland Garros as we’ve reached the round of 16. Jannik Sinner remains dominant as the world’s top player and continues his journey against a fellow top-20 player.
Check out my French Open predictions for June 2, including Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev.
French Open predictions
Best Bet: Sinner/Rublev under 30.5 games (-118)
This is my way of finding value for Sinner. He is -182 to win in straight sets, so this was the best option.
A three-set contest could still go over this mark, but that would require the sets to be close, and I believe Sinner can continue his dominance.
First of all, he’s incredible, losing just one match this season. That came against Carlos Alcaraz on clay, which doesn’t raise any concern.
Alcaraz is the No. 2-ranked player on tour behind Sinner but is arguably better than the Italian on clay, shown by his 160-36 career record on the surface.
In his eight other victories since the start of May, he’s lost only one set.
His opponent on Monday, Andrey Rublev, won their most recent outing at the French Open, but that dates back to 2022, when Sinner was 20 years old.
The now 23-year-old was solid on clay back then, but he’s taken the next step to match the rest of his game.
Rublev, on the other hand, is 17-12 to start the year with a mediocre 8-5 record on this playing surface.
Key stat: Sinner started his career with a 66-33 record on clay. Since the start of 2023, he’s 27-6 against tougher competition.
Go to full French Open betting markets.
Quick picks
Djokovic -2.5 sets (-120): There are a few arguments to back taking Djokovic to win in straight sets on Monday.
- The 38-year-old has yet to lose a set at Roland-Garros, while needing only one tiebreaker.
- Despite his age, he continues to play at a world-class level. That is demonstrated by his 35-8 record on clay since the start of 2023.
- Djokovic is 5-0 in his career vs. Cameron Norrie. On clay, the Serbian has won 4-of-5 sets vs. the Englishman, with the one loss coming in a tiebreaker set.
It’s really as simple as finding a way to back Djokovic in a matchup that should give him little resistance.
Zverev/Griekspoor over 35.5 games (-118): Let’s close things out with an early-bird pick. This match is scheduled first for Monday and has the makings to be competitive.
Zverev is a beast, boasting a 205-85 record on clay (17-6 in 2025). It’s his best surface, and I do expect him to win this match.
But his opponent, Tallon Griekspoor, is also on his best playing surface, with a 12-6 record this season.
That includes a loss in a three-set match to Zverev back in April in which the Dutchman was able to push his German counterpart to the limit (6-7, 7-6, 6-4).
Even that non-Grand Slam matchup got within half a game of this line with two fewer potential sets.
These two have a history at this event, too. Their 2024 third-round matchup was a spectacle for fans, and I expect a similar showing from both competitors.
That match, which was won by Zverev (3-6, 6-4, 6-2, 4-6, 7-6), went well over Monday’s line with 50 total games.
French Open predictions made at 4:03 p.m. on 06/01/2025.
