Spencer Closs

Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.

CFL 2025 Week 2 odds and betting lines: The Argonauts look for better result vs. Stampeders

CFL Week 2 odds

The CFL is in full swing with four games on the schedule for Week 2.

The latest: The Winnipeg Blue Bombers start their season a week late with a game against the surging BC Lions. Later on, the Toronto Argonauts look for their first win as hosts against the Calgary Stampeders.

Check out the latest CFL Week 2 odds for the start of the 2025 season, beginning Thursday, June 12

CFL Week 2 odds

Lions vs. Blue Bombers

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Alouettes vs. Redblacks

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Stampeders vs. Argonauts

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Roughriders vs. Tiger-Cats

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Full CFL betting markets

Week 2 betting notes

  • Nathan Rourke and the Lions looked good in Week 1. BC scored 31 points behind 324 yards and three touchdowns from their quarterback. They will be tested further against the Blue Bombers, who come off a Week 1 bye and have been to five straight Grey Cup championship games.
  • The Alouettes bested the Argonauts in Week 1 behind a familiarly strong defence that held Toronto to 10 points. They travel to Ottawa to take on the Redblacks, who started 0-1 this season but went 7-1-1 at home in 2024.
  • The Stampeders look to build on a 1-0 start when they face the Argonauts. Calgary won as an underdog last weekend and will have the same status on the road in Week 2. Chad Kelly is unlikely to return for Toronto, and the Stamps made a lot of improvements in the offseason, including Vernon Adams Jr. at QB.
  • To close out Week 2, the Tiger-Cats host the Roughriders. Hamilton lost to the Stampeders in Week 1 but will play at home for the first time this season. Saskatchewan is 1-0 behind a strong performance from wide receiver Samuel Emilus. He’s coming off back-to-back 1000-yard seasons and started strong, catching all eight targets for 133 yards and a score in the opening game.

CFL Week 2 odds as of 1:10 p.m. on 06/10/2025.

UFC 316 predictions, fight card and betting odds: Best bet for rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley

UFC 316 predictions

Sean O’Malley looks to reclaim his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 316.

The pre-fight narrative: After one title defence, Dvalishvili welcomes a familiar foe to the octagon in former champion, O’Malley. The latter looks to reclaim his strap after taking the last nine months off to recover from surgery.

Check out my UFC 316 predictions and the fight card for the June 8 event in New Jersey.

UFC 316 predictions

Best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-167)

O’Malley blamed his loss to Dvalishvili at UFC 306 on an injury that he has spent almost a year recovering from.

But I’m not sure that’s a valid excuse for the former bantamweight title holder.

  • Dvalishvili dominated their first bout, outlanding O’Malley 82-47 on the feet while mixing in six takedowns on 15 attempts.
  • The Georgian is nicknamed “the Machine” for a reason, as he’s one of the only fighters who can push a never-ending pace with both his striking and wrestling.
  • Since his last defeat back in 2018, Dvalishvili has put together a dozen straight wins. During that time, he outstruck all of his 12 opponents while landing 80 takedowns to his opponents’ five.
  • The bantamweight champion is only two fights into his title reign, and he already holds the UFC record for takedowns (92), two more than the legendary Georges St. Pierre.

O’Malley has a respectable takedown defence (61%), but it doesn’t matter when his counterpart shoots 15-plus times in each fight while maintaining a +1.85 significant strike differential.

There’s a lot of juice on this prop, but everything points to a repeat of their first bout, with Dvalishvili set to control the octagon for 25 minutes with little resistance.

Key stat: Dvalishvili has seen 11 of his 12 UFC wins come by decision.

Go to full UFC 316 betting markets

Quick pick

Luque to win (+210): Kevin Holland doesn’t deserve to be an almost 3-to-1 favourite here, and I believe that for a few reasons:

  • Since the start of 2022, Holland is 4-6 in the UFC.
  • His last win was a decision victory over a 36-year-old Gunnar Nelson, who was coming off over two years on the shelf.

Holland’s only other win in 2024 came against Michal Oleksiejczuk. The Polish striker knocked him down in the first round before Holland cinched in an armbar while Oleksiejczuk was chasing the ground and pound finish.

The American hasn’t had a convincing win in quite some time, and I think his opponent has the tools to pull off the upset here.

Vincente Luque looked on track for a title match before running into Belal Muhammad in the main event of a fight night in 2022.

He has won two of his last three bouts, with the sole defeat coming against Joaquin Buckley, who’s on a shortlist of title contenders at welterweight.

Luque is the better striker and has a lethal submission game to complement his 53% takedown accuracy. That’s an added advantage for the Brazilian if he chooses to use it.

In my opinion, this should be closer to a pick’em. For that reason, I’ll side with the underdog at an inflated price.

UFC 316 main card

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

FighterOddsWeight classOddsFighter
Merab Dvalishvili (C)-300Bantamweight+220Sean O’Malley (1)
Julianna Pena (C)+500Bantamweight (W)-900Kayla Harrison (2)
Kelvin Gastellum+290Middleweight-400Joe Pyfer
Mario Bautista (10)+150Bantamweight-200Patchy Mix
Vicente Luque+210Lightweight-286Kevin Holland

UFC picks made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 06/05/25.

UFC 316 predictions, fight card and betting odds: Best bet for rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley

UFC 316 predictions

Sean O’Malley looks to reclaim his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili in the main event of UFC 316.

The pre-fight narrative: After one title defence, Dvalishvili welcomes a familiar foe to the octagon in former champion, O’Malley. The latter looks to reclaim his strap after taking the last nine months off to recover from surgery.

Check out my UFC 316 predictions and the fight card for the June 8 event in New Jersey.

UFC 316 predictions

Best bet: Dvalishvili to win by decision (-150)

O’Malley blamed his loss to Dvalishvili at UFC 306 on an injury that he has spent almost a year recovering from.

But I’m not sure that’s a valid excuse for the former bantamweight title holder.

  • Dvalishvili dominated their first bout, outlanding O’Malley 82-47 on the feet while mixing in six takedowns on 15 attempts.
  • The Georgian is nicknamed “the Machine” for a reason, as he’s one of the only fighters who can push a never-ending pace with both his striking and wrestling.
  • Since his last defeat back in 2018, Dvalishvili has put together a dozen straight wins. During that time, he outstruck all of his 12 opponents while landing 80 takedowns to his opponents’ five.
  • The bantamweight champion is only two fights into his title reign, and he already holds the UFC record for takedowns (92), two more than the legendary Georges St. Pierre.

O’Malley has a respectable takedown defence (61%), but it doesn’t matter when his counterpart shoots 15-plus times in each fight while maintaining a +1.85 significant strike differential.

There’s a lot of juice on this prop, but everything points to a repeat of their first bout, with Dvalishvili set to control the octagon for 25 minutes with little resistance.

Key stat: Dvalishvili has seen 11 of his 12 UFC wins come by decision.

Go to full UFC 316 betting markets

Quick pick

Luque to win (+225): Kevin Holland doesn’t deserve to be an almost 3-to-1 favourite here, and I believe that for a few reasons:

  • Since the start of 2022, Holland is 4-6 in the UFC.
  • His last win was a decision victory over a 36-year-old Gunnar Nelson, who was coming off over two years on the shelf.

Holland’s only other win in 2024 came against Michal Oleksiejczuk. The Polish striker knocked him down in the first round before Holland cinched in an armbar while Oleksiejczuk was chasing the ground and pound finish.

The American hasn’t had a convincing win in quite some time, and I think his opponent has the tools to pull off the upset here.

Vincente Luque looked on track for a title match before running into Belal Muhammad in the main event of a fight night in 2022.

He has won two of his last three bouts, with the sole defeat coming against Joaquin Buckley, who’s on a shortlist of title contenders at welterweight.

Luque is the better striker and has a lethal submission game to complement his 53% takedown accuracy. That’s an added advantage for the Brazilian if he chooses to use it.

In my opinion, this should be closer to a pick’em. For that reason, I’ll side with the underdog at an inflated price.

UFC 316 main card

Click link to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

FighterOddsWeight classOddsFighter
Merab Dvalishvili (C)-295Bantamweight+225Sean O’Malley (1)
Julianna Pena (C)+525Bantamweight (W)-770Kayla Harrison (2)
Kelvin Gastellum+310Middleweight-420Joe Pyfer
Mario Bautista (10)+155Bantamweight-195Patchy Mix
Vicente Luque+210Lightweight-275Kevin Holland

UFC picks made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 06/05/25.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals prop picks Game 1: Target big men Isaiah Hartenstein, Myles Turner

Pacers vs. Thunder picks

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder begin their best-of-seven NBA Finals series on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder rolled through the West, leaning on MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a special defence. Indiana, on the other hand, is built on depth scoring but will need to overcome its status as a heavy underdog in the Finals.

I’m targeting Myles Turner and Isaiah Hartenstein in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 5.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Turner under 13.5 points (-106)

Indiana’s starting centre has consistently fallen short of this mark despite shooting a very high 52.5% from the field (40.3% from 3) in the postseason.

That was evident in his final three games vs. the New York Knicks:

  • Game 4: 13 points (made 5-of-8 FGs)
  • Game 5: 5 points (made 2-of-3 FGs)
  • Game 6: 11 points (made 4-of-6 FGs)

He’s not a priority in the Pacers’ offence and has received less playing time as the playoffs progress. He was on the court for a combined 45 minutes between Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference final.

On top of that, the Thunder are a level above the rest on defence. They have the best defensive rating in the playoffs (104.7).

For context, the Boston Celtics rank second in defensive rating (108.1). OKC’s defence is head and shoulders above the competition.

That should make it difficult for anyone on the Pacers to have an efficient night, and I’ll choose to fade Turner based on his lack of volume.

Key stat: Turner went 0-2 against this line vs. the Thunder in the regular season while shooting a combined 6-for-19 from the field (31.6%).

Game 1 prop prediction

Hartenstein 8+ rebounds (+105): The Western Conference is full of big rebounding teams that make it hard for centres to be effective.

Hartenstein witnessed that in the WCF against the Minnesota Timberwolves when he had to deal with 7-foot defensive stopper Rudy Gobert.

He went 1-4 against this line in that series, but I believe now is the time to jump back in at a discounted price.

  • Hartenstein was more effective in the first two series, going 7-4 against this line.
  • Out of the playoff teams, the Pacers allowed the second-most rebounds to centres during the regular season (15.26), per Fantasy Pros.

Knicks’ starting centre, Karl-Anthony Towns, feasted down low in the ECF, recording 12.2 rebounds per game.

I expect a similarly dominant effort from Hartenstein on a smaller scale. He averages 16.0 rebound chances in the postseason.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 1:33 p.m. ET 06/05/2025.

French Open men’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Musetti vs. Alcaraz, Sinner vs. Djokovic

French Open predictions

The French Open men’s semifinal is filled with star power as the title at Roland Garros is up for grabs.

Today’s French Open narrative: Jannik Sinner has yet to lose a set at this event with his sights on another Grand Slam title. Novak Djokovic stands in his way and has been just as impressive at this year’s French Open.

Check out my French Open predictions for the June 6 semifinal matches, featuring a pick on Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz.

French Open predictions

Best bet: Sinner/Djokovic over 36.5 games (-118)

Sinner is on an incredible run. He’s won all 15 sets at the French Open without needing a single tiebreaker.

It’s quite the feat, but I have to take a deeper dive.

  • Sinner’s highest-ranked opponent to this point was Andrey Rublev (No. 15).
  • Djokovic (No. 6) is on a different level. He won two of the past four French Opens and still looks like he’s in his prime.
  • The Serbian is 9-2 on clay this year and has only dropped one set himself at Roland Garros.
  • That came against Alexander Zverev (No. 3), who was last year’s runner-up at this event.

After dropping the first set in that quarterfinal match, Djokovic went on to dominate Zverev. He won the next three while only dropping nine games in the process.

These two players are arguably the most calculated in the world at their craft, and I expect Friday to be a high-level chess match that extends into the later sets.

Key stat: Sinner and Djokovic’s last meeting at a Grand Slam (2024 Australian Open) went over this total. The match finished with 37 games despite only needing four sets.

Go to full French Open betting markets.

Best men’s quarterfinal tennis pick

Musetti/Alcaraz under 33.5 games (-112): Musetti has developed into a fantastic clay-court player, but this is a matchup where he continues to fall short.

His 19-3 record on the surface in 2025 rivals the best in the game, but he meets his match on Friday.

  • Alacaraz is arguably the best player on clay in the world, demonstrated by his 161-36 career record (20-1 in 2025).
  • The Spaniard has owned his Italian counterpart on clay, beating him twice on the surface already this year.

Alcaraz won four of the five sets in those meetings.

Their three-set match at this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters went well below this total (3-6, 6-1, 6-0) thanks to Alcaraz’s dominance and ability to break Musetti.

There is the possibility for five sets at the French Open, as it is a Grand Slam major, but it shouldn’t matter.

Alcaraz has won five matches in a row vs. Musetti and eight of nine sets in those contests.

Backing this pick over Alcaraz -2.5 sets (+112) gives extra insurance to cover a shorter four-set contest.

French Open predictions made at 10:25 a.m. on 06/05/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals prop picks Game 1: Target big men Isaiah Hartenstein, Myles Turner

Pacers vs. Thunder picks

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder begin their best-of-seven NBA Finals series on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder rolled through the West, leaning on MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a special defence. Indiana, on the other hand, is built on depth scoring but will need to overcome its status as a heavy underdog in the Finals.

I’m targeting Myles Turner and Isaiah Hartenstein in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 5.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Turner under 13.5 points (-113)

Indiana’s starting centre has consistently fallen short of this mark despite shooting a very high 52.5% from the field (40.3% from 3) in the postseason.

That was evident in his final three games vs. the New York Knicks:

  • Game 4: 13 points (made 5-of-8 FGs)
  • Game 5: 5 points (made 2-of-3 FGs)
  • Game 6: 11 points (made 4-of-6 FGs)

He’s not a priority in the Pacers’ offence and has received less playing time as the playoffs progress. He was on the court for a combined 45 minutes between Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference final.

On top of that, the Thunder are a level above the rest on defence. They have the best defensive rating in the playoffs (104.7).

For context, the Boston Celtics rank second in defensive rating (108.1). OKC’s defence is head and shoulders above the competition.

That should make it difficult for anyone on the Pacers to have an efficient night, and I’ll choose to fade Turner based on his lack of volume.

Key stat: Turner went 0-2 against this line vs. the Thunder in the regular season while shooting a combined 6-for-19 from the field (31.6%).

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Game 1 prop prediction

Hartenstein 8+ rebounds (+112): The Western Conference is full of big rebounding teams that make it hard for centres to be effective.

Hartenstein witnessed that in the WCF against the Minnesota Timberwolves when he had to deal with 7-foot defensive stopper Rudy Gobert.

He went 1-4 against this line in that series, but I believe now is the time to jump back in at a discounted price.

  • Hartenstein was more effective in the first two series, going 7-4 against this line.
  • Out of the playoff teams, the Pacers allowed the second-most rebounds to centres during the regular season (15.26), per Fantasy Pros.

Knicks’ starting centre, Karl-Anthony Towns, feasted down low in the ECF, recording 12.2 rebounds per game.

I expect a similarly dominant effort from Hartenstein on a smaller scale. He averages 16.0 rebound chances in the postseason.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 12:47 p.m. ET 06/05/2025.

French Open men’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Musetti vs. Alcaraz, Sinner vs. Djokovic

French Open predictions

The French Open men’s semifinal is filled with star power as the title at Roland Garros is up for grabs.

Today’s French Open narrative: Jannik Sinner has yet to lose a set at this event with his sights on another Grand Slam title. Novak Djokovic stands in his way and has been just as impressive at this year’s French Open.

Check out my French Open predictions for the June 6 semifinal matches, featuring a pick on Lorenzo Musetti vs. Carlos Alcaraz.

French Open predictions

Best bet: Sinner/Djokovic over 36.5 games (-108)

Sinner is on an incredible run. He’s won all 15 sets at the French Open without needing a single tiebreaker.

It’s quite the feat, but I have to take a deeper dive.

  • Sinner’s highest-ranked opponent to this point was Andrey Rublev (No. 15).
  • Djokovic (No. 6) is on a different level. He won two of the past four French Opens and still looks like he’s in his prime.
  • The Serbian is 9-2 on clay this year and has only dropped one set himself at Roland Garros.
  • That came against Alexander Zverev (No. 3), who was last year’s runner-up at this event.

After dropping the first set in that quarterfinal match, Djokovic went on to dominate Zverev. He won the next three while only dropping nine games in the process.

These two players are arguably the most calculated in the world at their craft, and I expect Friday to be a high-level chess match that extends into the later sets.

Key stat: Sinner and Djokovic’s last meeting at a Grand Slam (2024 Australian Open) went over this total. The match finished with 37 games despite only needing four sets.

Go to full French Open betting markets.

Best men’s quarterfinal tennis pick

Musetti/Alcaraz under 34.5 games (-113): Musetti has developed into a fantastic clay-court player, but this is a matchup where he continues to fall short.

His 19-3 record on the surface in 2025 rivals the best in the game, but he meets his match on Friday.

  • Alacaraz is arguably the best player on clay in the world, demonstrated by his 161-36 career record (20-1 in 2025).
  • The Spaniard has owned his Italian counterpart on clay, beating him twice on the surface already this year.

Alcaraz won four of the five sets in those meetings.

Their three-set match at this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters went well below this total (3-6, 6-1, 6-0) thanks to Alcaraz’s dominance and ability to break Musetti.

There is the possibility for five sets at the French Open, as it is a Grand Slam major, but it shouldn’t matter.

Alcaraz has won five matches in a row vs. Musetti and eight of nine sets in those contests.

Backing this pick over Alcaraz -2.5 sets (+112) gives extra insurance to cover a shorter four-set contest.

French Open predictions made at 10:25 a.m. on 06/05/2025.

French Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Sabalenka vs. Swiatek, Boisson vs. Gauff

French Open predictions

The French Open reaches the semifinal stage, and the world’s best women’s players are going head to head.

Today’s French Open narrative: Aryna Sabalenka once again finds herself in the late stages of another Grand Slam major. She will face a familiar foe in Iga Swiatek, who’s proven very difficult to beat at Roland Garros in her career.

Check out my French Open predictions for the June 5 semifinal matches, featuring a pick on Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff.

French Open predictions

Best bet: Swiatek to win (+105)

In this epic semifinal clash between two of the best, I’ll back Swiatek as the underdog.

  • She is the best women’s player on clay, as demonstrated by her 148-21 record on the surface.
  • Sabalenka is good on clay (16-2 in 2025), but her 93-41 career record falls well short of her counterpart.
  • Swiatek has been extremely successful at Roland Garros, winning four of the past five French Opens (2020, 2022-24).

Both women have cruised to this point in the competition. They have combined to lose one set, so I have to back the better clay better with the better head-to-head history.

Key stat: Swiatek has owned Sabalenka on clay, winning five of their six career meetings on the surface. Additionally, she won 11 of the 14 possible sets in those matches.

Go to full French Open betting markets.

Best women’s quarterfinal tennis pick

Boisson/Gauff under 19.5 games (-112): Boisson, fueled by the crowd’s energy in her home country, pulled off a colossal upset over the No. 6-ranked Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinal.

The French player entered the competition as the 361st-ranked women’s player. She’s on a Cinderella run, but I think it comes to an end on Thursday.

Gauff is simply at another level right now.

  • She continues to improve on her 77-29 record on clay.
  • She’s won 10 of her 11 sets at the 2025 French Open.

The one set she lost came against Madison Keys in the quarterfinal. She’s the No. 8-ranked player and won the Australian Open earlier this year.

Boisson is a promising young player who does her best work on clay (104-40 record), but Gauff is cut from a different cloth and should be able to win the match comfortably.

Gauff is -155 to win in straight sets, so I’d rather back her by taking the under in a match at better value since I expect her to dominate.

French Open predictions made at 4:04 p.m. on 06/04/2025.

French Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Sabalenka vs. Swiatek, Boisson vs. Gauff

French Open predictions

The French Open reaches the semifinal stage, and the world’s best women’s players are going head to head.

Today’s French Open narrative: Aryna Sabalenka once again finds herself in the late stages of another Grand Slam major. She will face a familiar foe in Iga Swiatek, who’s proven very difficult to beat at Roland Garros in her career.

Check out my French Open predictions for the June 5 semifinal matches, featuring a pick on Lois Boisson vs. Coco Gauff.

French Open predictions

Best bet: Swiatek to win (+116)

In this epic semifinal clash between two of the best, I’ll back Swiatek as the underdog.

  • She is the best women’s player on clay, as demonstrated by her 148-21 record on the surface.
  • Sabalenka is good on clay (16-2 in 2025), but her 93-41 career record falls well short of her counterpart.
  • Swiatek has been extremely successful at Roland Garros, winning four of the past five French Opens (2020, 2022-24).

Both women have cruised to this point in the competition. They have combined to lose one set, so I have to back the better clay better with the better head-to-head history.

Key stat: Swiatek has owned Sabalenka on clay, winning five of their six career meetings on the surface. Additionally, she won 11 of the 14 possible sets in those matches.

Go to full French Open betting markets.

Best women’s quarterfinal tennis pick

Boisson/Gauff under 20.5 games (-118): Boisson, fueled by the crowd’s energy in her home country, pulled off a colossal upset over the No. 6-ranked Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinal.

The French player entered the competition as the 361st-ranked women’s player. She’s on a Cinderella run, but I think it comes to an end on Thursday.

Gauff is simply at another level right now.

  • She continues to improve on her 77-29 record on clay.
  • She’s won 10 of her 11 sets at the 2025 French Open.

The one set she lost came against Madison Keys in the quarterfinal. She’s the No. 8-ranked player and won the Australian Open earlier this year.

Boisson is a promising young player who does her best work on clay (104-40 record), but Gauff is cut from a different cloth and should be able to win the match comfortably.

Gauff is -155 to win in straight sets, so I’d rather back her by taking the under in a match at better value since I expect her to dominate.

French Open predictions made at 3:08 p.m. on 06/04/2025.

Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Game 1 SGP predictions: Target Holmgren, fade Haliburton at +400

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

The Indiana Pacers hit the road as sizeable underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder earned the right to be huge favourites to win the title. They finished with an all-time regular season record (68-14) and have been the best team in the playoffs. The Pacers have been resilient in this position, though, with one more major upset to pull off.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 1 on June 5, featuring Chet Holmgren and Tyrese Haliburton.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Thunder -7.5 | Holmgren over 16.5 points | Haliburton under 17.5 points (+400)

Thunder -7.5 (-159): Let’s start by looking at some stats and where OKC ranks in the postseason:

  • Second-best net rating (11.8)
  • Best defensive rating (104.7)
  • Lowest turnover percentage (11.6)

That makes it incredibly hard to beat the Thunder over 48 minutes.

This team has two All-NBA defensive team members and a newly minted MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the NBA in scoring while being extremely efficient.

Indiana’s been very good on the road in the playoffs (6-2), but the team’s been down big a few times before coming back to win.

That may fly in the Eastern Conference, but there’s no room for error against the Thunder, who are used to playing with and maintaining big leads.

NBA SGP legs

Holmgren over 16.5 points (-130): The Pacers have a hard time containing skilled bigs, as we saw with Karl-Anthony Towns of the New York Knicks.

Holmgren isn’t KAT, but this isn’t a KAT line, and there are a few reasons to like OKC’s rising big man in this matchup:

  • The 23-year-old has upped his production in the playoffs, averaging 16.4 points.
  • He had his best series in the WCF vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, scoring 18.0 PPG on 56.7% from the field.
  • Indiana allowed the seventh-most points per game to power forwards during the regular season (23.88), per Fantasy Pros.

He went 3-2 on this wager against the Timberwolves, and I expect even more success in the Finals.

This game could end up in blowout territory, so I wanted to find a pick I thought could cash in limited minutes, and this fits the bill.

Haliburton under 17.5 points (-110): Haliburton’s averaging 18.8 points in the postseason, but OKC’s defence is a different beast.

  • The Thunder’s defensive rating (104.7) is almost four points higher than the next closest team and is almost nine points higher than the Knicks’ (113.2).
  • Plus, Haliburton is 4-4 against this line on the road and has 22 total points in his last two away games.

The guard has been relying on heavy 3-point volume (7.1 attempts per game).

He won’t have as much space against OKC’s smothering defence and plethora of defensive wings.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 2:03 p.m. ET 06/04/2025.