Contributing Writer

Wimbledon quarterfinal parlay picks July 8: Best bet for Alcaraz vs. Norrie, Fritz vs. Khachanov

The quarterfinal at the All England Club starts on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz continues his dominance on grass courts, but needs to beat a game underdog in Cameron Norrie to advance to the semifinal. First, Taylor Fritz and Karen Khachanov meet. Both are red-hot, but only one can advance.

Check out my top Wimbledon parlay picks for July 8, featuring a pick on Amanda Anisimova vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Wimbledon parlay picks

Parlay: Alcaraz/Norrie over 33 games | Fritz -1.5 sets | Anisimova to win (+340)

Alcaraz/Norrie over 33 games (-118): Alcaraz continues to bend without breaking.

But because he’s a heavy favourite (-1,667), a little bend is all that’s needed for the over on this modest game total to cash.

Alcaraz is 9-0 on grass and 29-1 since the start of 2023, but he hasn’t won as comfortably as he’s used to at Wimbledon.

Three of his four matches have needed four sets, going over this total.

During his 22-match win streak, 10 of the 13 wins at Grand Slam majors needed extra sets.

Norrie has been great at Wimbledon, capped off by a five-set thriller to stop Nicolas Jarry’s run.

Jarry won three straight times as an underdog heading into that match and was playing at a very high level.

Norrie has held 89.5% of his service games at Wimbledon and should be a relatively tough out in the quarters.

The last two of the three matches between Alcaraz and Norrie have needed extra sets.

Visit full Wimbledon betting markets

Tennis parlay picks

Fritz -1.5 sets (-150): Fritz has been one of the best players on grass this year.

In preparation for the major, the American won two titles on grass and now has a 12-1 record on the surface in 2025.

Since the start of 2024, Fritz has a 22-3 record on grass.

He faced resistance early on, needing extra sets in three straight matches at this tournament, indicating fatigue setting in.

Then he was gifted with Jordan Thompson in the round of 16, who was battling an injury and retired after just over 40 minutes

That extra rest may be what Fritz needed to be a true contender at Wimbledon.

His opponent, Khachanov, has been good on grass too, putting together an 8-2 record this season. He hasn’t faced much competition at the All England Club, however.

The best opponent he faced was Nuno Borges (No. 37) in the third round, and he’s coming off a win over Kamil Majchrzak (No. 109) in the round of 16.

If Fritz was coming off a lengthy match, I’d expect this match to be close. But with a makeshift bye, I have to back the red-hot American to continue winning on grass.

Back Anisimova to advance

Anisimova to win (-250): Pavlyuchenkova’s 7-1 grass record looks good for the 34-year-old who has a 36-33 overall record on the surface.

But that record should be taken with a grain of salt.

Pavlyuchenkova ranks No. 50 in the world and has only played two of her matches on grass against opponents ranked higher than her (Maya Joint, Ashlyn Krueger).

She went 1-1 in those matchups.

Anisimova is ranked at least 20 spots higher than any of those opponents at No. 12. She is 10-2 on grass (23-11) in her career and is continuously getting better at 23 years old.

That’s her best winning percentage on any of the surfaces. I believe she’s a true contender for the title, so I expect her to roll through Pavlyuchenkova on the way to the semifinal.

Anisimova has won 20-of-43 (46.5%) of her break points at Wimbledon.

Wimbledon parlay picks made at 12:03 p.m. on 07/07/2025

Wimbledon quarterfinal parlay picks July 8: Best bet for Alcaraz vs. Norrie, Fritz vs. Khachanov

The quarterfinal at the All England Club starts on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz continues his dominance on grass courts, but needs to beat a game underdog in Cameron Norrie to advance to the semifinal. First, Taylor Fritz and Karen Khachanov meet. Both are red-hot, but only one can advance.

Check out my top Wimbledon parlay picks for July 8, featuring a pick on Amanda Anisimova vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Wimbledon parlay picks

Parlay: Alcaraz/Norrie over 33.5 games | Fritz -1.5 sets | Anisimova to win (+375)

Alcaraz/Norrie over 33.5 games (-106): Alcaraz continues to bend without breaking.

But because he’s a heavy favourite (-1,667), a little bend is all that’s needed for the over on this modest game total to cash.

Alcaraz is 9-0 on grass and 29-1 since the start of 2023, but he hasn’t won as comfortably as he’s used to at Wimbledon.

Three of his four matches have needed four sets, going over this total.

During his 22-match win streak, 10 of the 13 wins at Grand Slam majors needed extra sets.

Norrie has been great at Wimbledon, capped off by a five-set thriller to stop Nicolas Jarry’s run.

Jarry won three straight times as an underdog heading into that match and was playing at a very high level.

Norrie has held 89.5% of his service games at Wimbledon and should be a relatively tough out in the quarters.

The last two of the three matches between Alcaraz and Norrie have needed extra sets.

Visit full Wimbledon betting markets

Tennis parlay picks

Fritz -1.5 sets (-134): Fritz has been one of the best players on grass this year.

In preparation for the major, the American won two titles on grass and now has a 12-1 record on the surface in 2025.

Since the start of 2024, Fritz has a 22-3 record on grass.

He faced resistance early on, needing extra sets in three straight matches at this tournament, indicating fatigue setting in.

Then he was gifted with Jordan Thompson in the round of 16, who was battling an injury and retired after just over 40 minutes

That extra rest may be what Fritz needed to be a true contender at Wimbledon.

His opponent, Khachanov, has been good on grass too, putting together an 8-2 record this season. He hasn’t faced much competition at the All England Club, however.

The best opponent he faced was Nuno Borges (No. 37) in the third round, and he’s coming off a win over Kamil Majchrzak (No. 109) in the round of 16.

If Fritz was coming off a lengthy match, I’d expect this match to be close. But with a makeshift bye, I have to back the red-hot American to continue winning on grass.

Back Anisimova to advance

Anisimova to win (-250): Pavlyuchenkova’s 7-1 grass record looks good for the 34-year-old who has a 36-33 overall record on the surface.

But that record should be taken with a grain of salt.

Pavlyuchenkova ranks No. 50 in the world and has only played two of her matches on grass against opponents ranked higher than her (Maya Joint, Ashlyn Krueger).

She went 1-1 in those matchups.

Anisimova is ranked at least 20 spots higher than any of those opponents at No. 12. She is 10-2 on grass (23-11) in her career and is continuously getting better at 23 years old.

That’s her best winning percentage on any of the surfaces. I believe she’s a true contender for the title, so I expect her to roll through Pavlyuchenkova on the way to the semifinal.

Anisimova has won 20-of-43 (46.5%) of her break points at Wimbledon.

Wimbledon parlay picks made at 12:03 p.m. on 07/07/2025

Phillies vs. Giants prop picks July 7: Back Trea Turner, fade Willy Adames

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants start a three-game series on the West Coast.

The pregame narrative: Both teams enter this contest looking to extend their winning streaks to three games. Cristopher Sanchez (2.68 ERA) starts for the Phillies opposite Landen Roupp (3.48 ERA) for the Giants.

Check out my Phillies vs. Giants picks for July 7, featuring Trea Turner and Willy Adames.

Phillies vs. Giants picks

Best Bet: Turner over 0.5 runs (+104)

The shortstop has put together a tidy six-game hit streak. He’s batting .346 over that stretch and hits out of the leadoff spot for the Phillies.

That means power bats like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm are behind Turner in the order on most nights.

Leading off with a hot bat is a great place to be when looking for scoring opportunities.

Roupp’s 3.48 ERA may seem decent, but his advanced stats paint a different picture:

37th percentile xERA (4.15)
34th percentile xBA (.257)
24th percentile pitching run value (-4)

He’s been the beneficiary of some good ball luck as demonstrated by his 1.48 WHIP. Either that or he has an incredible clutch gene.

Roupp gives up a ton of base runners, and I expect Turner to take advantage by reaching base multiple times. Then it’s on the power bats to drive their leadoff man home.

Key stat: Turner has scored in three of the past four games.

Quick pick

Adames under 0.5 hits (+118): I faded Adames yesterday, and it blew up in my face. The slugging shortstop hit a home run, quieting me quickly, at least until today.

And that’s because, as hot as Adames is, I can’t look past his ugly splits this season.

Vs. RHP: .253 average (.408 SLG)
Vs. LHP: .149 average (.264 SLG)

Jacob Lopez of the Athletics is a serviceable southpaw, but he’s not elite like Phillies starter Sanchez.

He is holding left-handed batters to a .178 average (.192 SLG) in 83 plate appearances this season.

Adames has a hit in seven straight games, but this is a great spot to fade the infielder at a good price.

Sanchez has worked six or more innings in six straight starts (all quality starts), so he should see a lot of Adames on Sunday and has the tools to contain him in a lefty-on-lefty matchup.

Phillies vs. Giants picks made at 10:19 a.m. ET on 07/07/2025.

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FIFA Club World Cup semifinal prediction July 8: Best bet for Fluminese vs. Chelsea

Fluminense continues its Cinderella run at the FIFA Club World Cup with a semifinal match against Chelsea.

The latest: The side from Brazil has taken down Inter Milan and Al Hilal in the knockout stage and will need another win as an underdog against Chelsea to reach the FIFA CWC final. The English side has rolled through the tournament and deserves to be the favourite.

Check out the best FIFA Club World Cup prediction for the semifinal match on July 8.

FIFA Club World Cup prediction

Fluminense vs. Chelsea markets	Betting odds
Fluminense to win	+450
Draw	+275
Chelsea to win	-143
Over 2.5 goals	+105
Under 2.5 goals	-134

Best bet: Over 2.5 goals (+105)

Chelsea has been an offensive juggernaut at this tournament, scoring in every game and burying at least two goals in four of five fixtures.

There is an argument to be made for backing Chelsea to score over 1.5 goals at -120. The squad has, however, allowed a goal in three of five matches, leaving the door open for Fluminense as an underdog.

I mean, the side has been here before. Fluminense eliminated Inter Milan, 2-0, in the round of 16, before picking up another 2-1 upset against Al Hilal in the quarterfinal.

The inclusion of Fluminense in this wager is welcomed, given how the offence has been firing.

Full FIFA Club World Cup betting markets

Fluminense has scored two or more goals in two of its past three matches.

Both of these teams are going at full throttle right now. So when I saw the over at plus money, I jumped all over it.

It seems like the European teams are playing up to the faster pace set by the teams from the Americas.

Eight of the 12 knockout-stage matches have gone over this total.

Key stat: Chelsea and Fluminense have a combined record of 6-4 on the over against this total at the FIFA Club World Cup.

FIFA Club World Cup prediction made at 3:55 p.m. on 07/04/2025.

FIFA Club World Cup semifinal prediction July 8: Best bet for Fluminese vs. Chelsea

Fluminense continues its Cinderella run at the FIFA Club World Cup with a semifinal match against Chelsea.

The latest: The side from Brazil has taken down Inter Milan and Al Hilal in the knockout stage and will need another win as an underdog against Chelsea to reach the FIFA CWC final. The English side has rolled through the tournament and deserves to be the favourite.

Check out the best FIFA Club World Cup prediction for the semifinal match on July 8.

FIFA Club World Cup prediction

Fluminense vs. Chelsea markets	Betting odds
Fluminense to win	+450
Draw	+285
Chelsea to win	-139
Over 2.5 goals	+107
Under 2.5 goals	-125

Best bet: Over 2.5 goals (+107)

Chelsea has been an offensive juggernaut at this tournament, scoring in every game and burying at least two goals in four of five fixtures.

There is an argument to be made for backing Chelsea to score over 1.5 goals at -120. The squad has, however, allowed a goal in three of five matches, leaving the door open for Fluminense as an underdog.

I mean, the side has been here before. Fluminense eliminated Inter Milan, 2-0, in the round of 16, before picking up another 2-1 upset against Al Hilal in the quarterfinal.

The inclusion of Fluminense in this wager is welcomed, given how the offence has been firing.

Full FIFA Club World Cup betting markets

Fluminense has scored two or more goals in two of its past three matches.

Both of these teams are going at full throttle right now. So when I saw the over at plus money, I jumped all over it.

It seems like the European teams are playing up to the faster pace set by the teams from the Americas.

Eight of the 12 knockout-stage matches have gone over this total.

Key stat: Chelsea and Fluminense have a combined record of 6-4 on the over against this total at the FIFA Club World Cup.

FIFA Club World Cup prediction made at 3:00 p.m. on 07/04/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 6: Back Paul Skenes, fade Willy Adames

One pitcher and one hitter contribute to my MLB prop bets on Sunday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Paul Skenes hasn’t been racking up his usual strikeout numbers, but a matchup against the Seattle Mariners will provide the Pittsburgh Pirates ace with an opportunity for a strong outing.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 6, featuring picks on Skenes and Willy Adames.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Adames under 0.5 runs (-120)

The Giants’ shortstop has been on a tear over the past six games:

10-for-25 (.435 batting average)
.652 SLG
15 total bases

He has at least a hit in all six games. But this is all for show as Adames faces lefty Jacob Lopez, and his stats against left-handed pitching have been awful.

Vs. RHP: .255 BA (.412 SLG)
Vs. LHP: .140 BA (.221 SLG)

His slugging percentage against lefties is worse than his average against righties. That’s how drastically different the splits are.

Despite his recent success, this would be a matchup to fade him in. Plus, bettors are getting a good price because of his hot bat.

Lopez has a solid 3.88 ERA in 46.1 innings pitched this season.

Key stat: Adames has scored just 10 runs against lefties in 97 plate appearances.

Best MLB picks

Skenes over 7.5 Ks (+105): Skenes hasn’t had his best stuff lately, but a matchup with the Mariners is good news for the flamethrower arm.

They strike out the sixth most in the majors (8.75 Ks per game).

Skenes has failed to reach this total in two straight but played teams (Cardinals, Brewers) which rank in the bottom 12 for K-rate.

Seattle’s offence has a 32.0% K-rate against Skenes in 25 career plate appearances.

The Pirates’ star pitcher has a 9.32 K/9, so an extended outing against a struggling lineup could be all he needs to have a lights-out performance.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.

MLB home run picks July 6: Take a shot on sluggers Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani

Two star sluggers headline Sunday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rafael Devers has put together a decent hit streak and he has a good matchup against the Athletics tonight. Earlier on, Shohei Ohtani looks to add another home run against the Houston Astros.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 6.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Devers to hit a home run (+295)

According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out at over 8.0 mph to centre field at the Athletics’ makeshift home of Sutter Health Park.

The temperature is also supposed to be around 90 degrees at first pitch, meaning the ball should fly tonight. That’s reflected in the hefty 10.5 run total.

That brings me to the Giants’ newest slugger. Devers is on a five-game hit streak with three doubles in that span. He doesn’t have any blasts, but he’s seeing the ball well right now and hitting with power.

Overall, take a look at some of his advanced power analytics and where they rank:

55.8 hard-hit rate (97th percentile)
94.0 mph avg exit velocity (97th percentile)
15.4% barrel rate (92nd percentile)

Devers will face left-handed pitcher Jacob Lopez, but he’s a rare lefty who hits better against the same side, so it is one more thing working to his advantage on Sunday.

Key stat: Devers bats .289 and has a .488 SLG against LHP.

Best HR predictions

Ohtani to hit a home run (+145): Dodger Stadium is right around average in terms of home runs allowed to left-handed hitters.

But on Sunday, the wind will pick up and blow out to right field at around 7.5 mph. That will turn an average ballpark into a very friendly hitter’s park for Ohtani.

And he gets an A-plus matchup against Astros starter Ryan Gusto.

The big righty has struggled at times and owns a 4.90 ERA through 18 appearances (11 starts).

His 90.4% average exit velocity and 15th percentile chase rate (24.5%) won’t be doing him any favours either against a free-swinging power hitter like Ohtani.

Ohtani ranks third in the MLB with 30 home runs this season and owns a 1.002 OPS.

MLB home run picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.

Best MLB prop bets July 6: Back Paul Skenes, fade Willy Adames

One pitcher and one hitter contribute to my MLB prop bets on Sunday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Paul Skenes hasn’t been racking up his usual strikeout numbers, but a matchup against the Seattle Mariners will provide the Pittsburgh Pirates ace with an opportunity for a strong outing.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for July 6, featuring picks on Skenes and Willy Adames.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Adames under 0.5 runs (-110)

The Giants’ shortstop has been on a tear over the past six games:

10-for-25 (.435 batting average)
.652 SLG
15 total bases

He has at least a hit in all six games. But this is all for show as Adames faces lefty Jacob Lopez, and his stats against left-handed pitching have been awful.

Vs. RHP: .255 BA (.412 SLG)
Vs. LHP: .140 BA (.221 SLG)

His slugging percentage against lefties is worse than his average against righties. That’s how drastically different the splits are.

Despite his recent success, this would be a matchup to fade him in. Plus, bettors are getting a good price because of his hot bat.

Lopez has a solid 3.88 ERA in 46.1 innings pitched this season.

Key stat: Adames has scored just 10 runs against lefties in 97 plate appearances.

Best MLB picks

Skenes over 7.5 Ks (+114): Skenes hasn’t had his best stuff lately, but a matchup with the Mariners is good news for the flamethrower arm.

They strike out the sixth most in the majors (8.75 Ks per game).

Skenes has failed to reach this total in two straight but played teams (Cardinals, Brewers) which rank in the bottom 12 for K-rate.

Seattle’s offence has a 32.0% K-rate against Skenes in 25 career plate appearances.

The Pirates’ star pitcher has a 9.32 K/9, so an extended outing against a struggling lineup could be all he needs to have a lights-out performance.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.

MLB home run picks July 6: Take a shot on sluggers Rafael Devers and Shohei Ohtani

Two star sluggers headline Sunday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rafael Devers has put together a decent hit streak and he has a good matchup against the Athletics tonight. Earlier on, Shohei Ohtani looks to add another home run against the Houston Astros.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for July 6.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Devers to hit a home run (+285)

According to Swish Analytics, the wind will be blowing out at over 8.0 mph to centre field at the Athletics’ makeshift home of Sutter Health Park.

The temperature is also supposed to be around 90 degrees at first pitch, meaning the ball should fly tonight. That’s reflected in the hefty 10.5 run total.

That brings me to the Giants’ newest slugger. Devers is on a five-game hit streak with three doubles in that span. He doesn’t have any blasts, but he’s seeing the ball well right now and hitting with power.

Overall, take a look at some of his advanced power analytics and where they rank:

55.8 hard-hit rate (97th percentile)
94.0 mph avg exit velocity (97th percentile)
15.4% barrel rate (92nd percentile)

Devers will face left-handed pitcher Jacob Lopez, but he’s a rare lefty who hits better against the same side, so it is one more thing working to his advantage on Sunday.

Key stat: Devers bats .289 and has a .488 SLG against LHP.

Best HR predictions

Ohtani to hit a home run (+175): Dodger Stadium is right around average in terms of home runs allowed to left-handed hitters.

But on Sunday, the wind will pick up and blow out to right field at around 7.5 mph. That will turn an average ballpark into a very friendly hitter’s park for Ohtani.

And he gets an A-plus matchup against Astros starter Ryan Gusto.

The big righty has struggled at times and owns a 4.90 ERA through 18 appearances (11 starts).

His 90.4% average exit velocity and 15th percentile chase rate (24.5%) won’t be doing him any favours either against a free-swinging power hitter like Ohtani.

Ohtani ranks third in the MLB with 30 home runs this season and owns a 1.002 OPS.

MLB home run picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.

Angels vs. Blue Jays prop picks July 6: Bet on Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

The AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays look for their second straight sweep at home.

The pregame narrative: The Los Angeles Angels have kept things close, pushing each of the first two games to extra innings before losing. Kevin Gausman will start for Toronto on Sunday opposite Tyler Anderson for L.A.

Check out my Angels vs. Blue Jays picks for July 6, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Mike Trout.

Angels vs. Blue Jays picks

Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-106)

The five-time all-star isn’t producing as many runs as expected, but he’s still one of the best hitters in baseball. That’s what’s important for this pick.

Over the past 17 games, Guerrero is batting .302 with a .556 SLG and 35 total bases.

It usually comes down to the matchup and he’s got a juicy one tonight. He is 7-for-13 off Anderson in his career with a .692 SLG.

Guerrero takes a lot of walks (90th-percentile walk rate), which is the one red flag with this type of wager.

But the slugging first baseman also ranks in the 90th percentile or higher for xBA (.312), xSLG (.533) and average exit velocity (92.9).

There is some juice to pay on this line, but bettors are backing an elite hitter against a pitcher he sees very well.

Key stat: Guerrero will also have the platoon advantage. He slashes .329/.424/.521 vs. left-handed pitching this season.

Quick pick

Trout over 1.5 total bases (+105): A star slugger on the other side has a good matchup, too.

Trout is 8-for-20 off Gausman with three home runs. That equals out to a .400 average and .850 SLG.

The Jays’ righty has been trending downward recently. He has a 5.18 ERA over his past six starts. His season-long ERA (4.18) would be the highest of any of his seasons with Toronto.

I want to back Trout in a market completely in his control due to a lack of trust in other Angels hitters. The offence as a whole ranks near the bottom of the league in most statistical categories.

The veteran outfielder has at least a hit in eight of the past 10 games and has a history that suggests he’ll get to Gausman today.

Blue Jays picks were made at 10:03 a.m. ET on 07/06/2025.