Contributing Writer

Mets vs. Padres SGP predictions July 29: Target Xander Bogaerts at +325

The San Diego Padres are looking for a fourth straight win when they host the New York Mets for the second of a three-game series.

The pregame narrative: San Diego squeaked out a 7-6 win in last night’s contest and sends Ryan Bergert to the mound. The Mets counter with Sean Manaea, who’s making his third start of the year with an impressive 2.19 ERA.

Check out my Mets vs. Giants predictions, featuring Xander Bogaerts and Brett Baty.

Mets vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres +1.5 | Bogaerts over 0.5 hits | Baty over 0.5 hits (+325)

Padres +1.5 (-167): The Padres may have the less experienced pitcher starting today, but I still believe they hold the advantage.

Bergert has been solid as a rookie, sporting a 2.84 ERA through 10 appearances (six starts).

More importantly, he gets run support from his offence. In those six starts, San Diego is 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against this run line.

On the other side, Manaea has been solid over 12.1 innings to start his season, but this is a tough matchup for the veteran lefty.

In 120 at-bats, the Padres’ offence has a .316 average with a 19.5% K-rate against him. That’s enough of a sample size for me to expect a letdown spot in Manaea’s third start of the season.

MLB SGP legs

Bogaerts over 0.5 (-215): Bogaerts is one of the sluggers who often gets on Manaea.

He has seven hits in 15 at-bats vs. the lefty with two doubles and a home run (.800 SLG).

That’s unsurprising considering he mashes left-handed pitching:

Vs. RHP in 2025: .251 average
Vs. LHP in 2025: .311 average

Additionally, the infielder has 12 hits in his last 40 plate appearances, batting .317 over the last nine games.

Bogaerts is red-hot right now and should do damage against the Mets on Tuesday.

Baty over 0.5 hits (-127): The third baseman is hitless in his last two games, but that doesn’t discourage me much.

If you include those contests, he still has at least a knock in eight of his past 10 games. He’s hitting .273 during that time.

As solid as Bergert has been, his 4.62 xERA is much worse than his actual ERA (2.84).

He has below-average K rate (23.1%), meaning there should be lots of contact from the Mets’ hitters.

And that includes Baty, who’s swinging a hot bat right now.

Mets vs. Padres predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 07/29/2025.

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National Bank Open round of 64 picks and predictions July 29: Best bets for Denis Shapovalov, Bianca Andreescu and Casper Ruud

Multiple Canadians look to advance past the round of 64 at the National Bank Open on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The biggest name of them all is Denis Shapovalov, and he comes into this event off the back of a victory in Los Cabos. Earlier on, Bianca Andreescu aims to turn her season around in front of her home crowd against Mirra Andreeva.

Check out my top National Bank Open predictions for July 29, including picks on Roman Safiullin vs. Casper Ruud.

National Bank Open predictions: July 29

Best Bet: Shapovalov -2.5 games (-120)

It’s hard-court season once again, and Shapovalov has always thrived on the playing surface.

With both indoor and outdoor hardcourts included, the Canadian has a 226-144 career record. On all other surfaces, he is 102-77.

In 2025, he is 11-6 on outdoor hardcourts and just won a title in Mexico, where he dominated. In fact, Shapovalov won every set in all four matches and covered this spread in each.

His opponent, Learner Tien, is a 19-year-old future star, but I think the red-hot Canadian will be too much to handle at this point.

Tien is 14-7 on the playing surface, but he falls short in the big matches. At the Citi Open, the American ran into a streaking Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and lost badly (6-2, 6-2).

The Spaniard went on to reach the final in that event, much like Shapovalov at the Mifel Tennis Open in Los Cabos.

Key stat: At the Mifel Open, Shapovalov had an average win margin of 7.5 games.

Full tennis betting markets

National Bank Open best bet: Safiullin vs. Ruud

Ruud -1.5 sets (+120): There is too much value here to pass up on the side of Ruud.

The Norwegian missed almost two months of action following the French Open due to a knee injury, so it’s hard to gauge how good his form is ahead of the National Bank Open.

But he’s far and away the better player in the matchup.

Ruud is the No. 11-ranked player on the ATP tour with a 24-9 record this season.

Safiullin is No. 82 and is 11-16 in 2025.

While Ruud has some question marks coming in, there’s no denying that Safiullin is in poor form, having lost eight of his last 10 matches.

The Russian is 7-8 on outdoor hardcourts this year, and he barely scraped by Ugo Blanchet (No. 231) in the round of 128.

Meanwhile, Ruud is 6-3 on the surface. He was able to shake off some of the rust in Gstaad, winning one match in straight sets before losing in three sets in the second round.

Best bet: Andreescu vs. Andreeva

Andreescu +5.5 games (-120): When healthy, Andreescu is a world-class tennis player, but staying healthy has been a challenge for the Canadian.

Since the concerns started in 2020, Andreescu has played fewer than 30 games in three different seasons.

She’s played 17 matches so far in 2025, and the hope is that she’s past her lingering injury concerns coming into the National Bank Open.

The good news is Andreescu looked good in the round of 128, beating Barbora Krejcikova (No. 80) in straight sets.

Andreeva is on a different level, however. She is the world No. 5 player with an incredible 20-5 record on outdoor hardcourts this season.

But this bet doesn’t require Andreescu to win. She just needs to be somewhat competitive.

This is the Canadian’s best playing surface. Andreescu has a 125-50 record on outdoor hardcourts in her career.

National Bank Open predictions made at 12:03 p.m. on 07/29/2025.

National Bank Open round of 64 picks and predictions July 29: Best bets for Denis Shapovalov, Bianca Andreescu and Casper Ruud

Multiple Canadians look to advance past the round of 64 at the National Bank Open on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: The biggest name of them all is Denis Shapovalov, and he comes into this event off the back of a victory in Los Cabos. Earlier on, Bianca Andreescu aims to turn her season around in front of her home crowd against Mirra Andreeva.

Check out my top National Bank Open predictions for July 29, including picks on Roman Safiullin vs. Casper Ruud.

National Bank Open predictions: July 29

Best Bet: Shapovalov -2.5 games (-134)

It’s hard-court season once again, and Shapovalov has always thrived on the playing surface.

With both indoor and outdoor hardcourts included, the Canadian has a 226-144 career record. On all other surfaces, he is 102-77.

In 2025, he is 11-6 on outdoor hardcourts and just won a title in Mexico, where he dominated. In fact, Shapovalov won every set in all four matches and covered this spread in each.

His opponent, Learner Tien, is a 19-year-old future star, but I think the red-hot Canadian will be too much to handle at this point.

Tien is 14-7 on the playing surface, but he falls short in the big matches. At the Citi Open, the American ran into a streaking Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and lost badly (6-2, 6-2).

The Spaniard went on to reach the final in that event, much like Shapovalov at the Mifel Tennis Open in Los Cabos.

Key stat: At the Mifel Open, Shapovalov had an average win margin of 7.5 games.

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Full tennis betting markets

National Bank Open best bet: Safiullin vs. Ruud

Ruud -1.5 sets (+125): There is too much value here to pass up on the side of Ruud.

The Norwegian missed almost two months of action following the French Open due to a knee injury, so it’s hard to gauge how good his form is ahead of the National Bank Open.

But he’s far and away the better player in the matchup.

Ruud is the No. 11-ranked player on the ATP tour with a 24-9 record this season.

Safiullin is No. 82 and is 11-16 in 2025.

While Ruud has some question marks coming in, there’s no denying that Safiullin is in poor form, having lost eight of his last 10 matches.

The Russian is 7-8 on outdoor hardcourts this year, and he barely scraped by Ugo Blanchet (No. 231) in the round of 128.

Meanwhile, Ruud is 6-3 on the surface. He was able to shake off some of the rust in Gstaad, winning one match in straight sets before losing in three sets in the second round.

Best bet: Andreescu vs. Andreeva

Andreescu to win over 7.5 games (-130): When healthy, Andreescu is a world-class tennis player, but staying healthy has been a challenge for the Canadian.

Since the concerns started in 2020, Andreescu has played fewer than 30 games in three different seasons.

She’s played 17 matches so far in 2025, and the hope is that she’s past her lingering injury concerns coming into the National Bank Open.

The good news is Andreescu looked good in the round of 128, beating Barbora Krejcikova (No. 80) in straight sets.

Andreeva is on a different level, however. She is the world No. 5 player with an incredible 20-5 record on outdoor hardcourts this season.

But this bet doesn’t require Andreescu to win. She just needs to be somewhat competitive.

This is the Canadian’s best playing surface. Andreescu has a 125-50 record on outdoor hardcourts in her career.

National Bank Open predictions made at 10:20 a.m. on 07/29/2025.

Mariners vs. Angels SGP predictions July 26: Back Rodriguez and Trout at +370

The Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels play on Saturday for the upper hand in a four-game series.

The latest: The sides have looked evenly matched, splitting the first two games. Tonight, George Kirby starts for Seattle, going head-to-head with Tyler Anderson for Los Angeles.

Check out my Mariners vs. Angels predictions, featuring Julio Rodriguez and Mike Trout.

Mariners vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Rodriguez over 1.5 bases | Kirby over 17.5 outs | Trout over 0.5 hits (+370)

Rodrigeuz over 1.5 total bases (+100): Rodriguez is swinging a hot bat in L.A., mashing three home runs through the first two games of this series.

And now, he gets another Grade-A matchup in Anderson.

Rodriguez is 6-for-14 off the lefty, with only two Ks and no walks. The lack of strikeouts and free passes shows the outfielder’s ability to get on Anderson’s stuff.

The left-handed starter is coming off three consecutive poor performances. He’s given up 11 runs over his past 16 innings pitched while giving up three blasts.

Since the all-star break, Rodriguez is batting .303 with 19 total bases over eight games.

Embed: #116316

MLB SGP legs

Kirby over 17.5 outs (-177): Even when Kirby has a mediocre performance, he’s still regularly clearing this line.

The big righty has pitched 6.0 or more innings in four of his last five starts. That includes his last start when he allowed four earned runs.

But overall, he’s actually been very effective over those appearances. He has a 3.07 ERA and 2.38 FIP over those five starts.

On top of that, the Angels have the third-worst team batting average (.234), while striking out the second most times per game (9.66).

Los Angeles’ offence has a .232 team average in 95 at-bats vs. Kirby all time.

Trout over 0.5 hits (-250): Trout isn’t having a spectacular season, but he’s very consistent at getting hits.

His .236 average ranks well below his career average of .296, but I can happily ignore that when he has a hit in 21 of his past 25 games.

Trout is 4-for-9 (.444) off Kirby in his career with a home run.

His xBA of .267 is over 30 points higher than his actual average and implies that Trout has left some production on the table.

Knowing that, I predict a big second half for the veteran slugger, which continues tonight.

Mariners vs. Angels predictions made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 07/26/2025.

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Citi Open men’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Moutet vs. De Minaur, Davidovich Fokina vs. Shelton

Two top-15 players have a shot to meet in the final at the Citi Open.

The latest: Alex De Minaur is still in search of his first title for 2025 and has a meeting with Corentin Moutet in the semifinal. Ben Shelton has been dominant at this event and looks to notch his spot in the final in a match against a game Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Check out my top Citi Open men’s predictions for July 26, featuring a pick on both matches.

Citi predictions: Men’s semis

Best bet: De Minaur/Moutet under 20.5 games (-120)

This is my way of backing De Minaur to win convincingly with some playable value. He is -156 to win in straight sets, which is a fine pick if you can bear those odds, but it’s a bit too steep for me.

The Australian is a very experienced player on this surface. He has a 186-91 record on outdoor hardcourts in his career.

That’s much better than Moutet’s 63-51 record.

The Frenchman is more of a clay specialist, and that 55.3% win rate on outdoor hardcourts is his second worst on any surface.

Two out of three wins for De Minaur have been in straight sets, and both stayed under this total.

He fought off a very tough Jiri Lehecka (No. 25) in the outlier but takes a step back in competition against Moutet (No. 56) in the semis.

De Minaur has a 34-11 record on outdoor hardcourts since the start of 2024. In comparison, Moutet has a 14-11 record.

Key stat: In their one career matchup, De Minaur won in straight sets (6-1, 6-3) on an indoor hardcourt.

Full Citi Open betting markets

Shelton vs. Davidovich Fokina best bet

Over 22.5 games (-112): This matchup should be close for a few reasons.

Both players come into the semis in top form. Shelton hasn’t lost a set, while Davidovich Fokina has won eight of nine sets.

The Spaniard most recently beat Taylor Fritz, the No. 4-ranked player who won 15 of 17 games before that match

Shelton eliminated two top-40 players (Gabriel Diallo, Frances Tiafoe), while only needing one tiebreaker to win every set.

The nice part about the modest over for this match is that it can be hit in two close sets.

And since Davidovich Fokina just proved he’s able to beat elite talent, I have to believe he can be competitive once again against the No. 8 player.

Citi Open predictions made at 1:34 p.m. on 07/26/2025.

Citi Open men’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Moutet vs. De Minaur, Davidovich Fokina vs. Shelton

Two top-15 players have a shot to meet in the final at the Citi Open.

The latest: Alex De Minaur is still in search of his first title for 2025 and has a meeting with Corentin Moutet in the semifinal. Ben Shelton has been dominant at this event and looks to notch his spot in the final in a match against a game Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

Check out my top Citi Open men’s predictions for July 26, featuring a pick on both matches.

Citi predictions: Men’s semis

Best bet: De Minaur/Moutet under 20.5 games (-106)

This is my way of backing De Minaur to win convincingly with some playable value. He is -156 to win in straight sets, which is a fine pick if you can bear those odds, but it’s a bit too steep for me.

The Australian is a very experienced player on this surface. He has a 186-91 record on outdoor hardcourts in his career.

That’s much better than Moutet’s 63-51 record.

The Frenchman is more of a clay specialist, and that 55.3% win rate on outdoor hardcourts is his second worst on any surface.

Two out of three wins for De Minaur have been in straight sets, and both stayed under this total.

He fought off a very tough Jiri Lehecka (No. 25) in the outlier but takes a step back in competition against Moutet (No. 56) in the semis.

De Minaur has a 34-11 record on outdoor hardcourts since the start of 2024. In comparison, Moutet has a 14-11 record.

Key stat: In their one career matchup, De Minaur won in straight sets (6-1, 6-3) on an indoor hardcourt.

Full Citi Open betting markets

Shelton vs. Davidovich Fokina best bet

Over 22.5 games (-118): This matchup should be close for a few reasons.

Both players come into the semis in top form. Shelton hasn’t lost a set, while Davidovich Fokina has won eight of nine sets.

The Spaniard most recently beat Taylor Fritz, the No. 4-ranked player who won 15 of 17 games before that match

Shelton eliminated two top-40 players (Gabriel Diallo, Frances Tiafoe), while only needing one tiebreaker to win every set.

The nice part about the modest over for this match is that it can be hit in two close sets.

And since Davidovich Fokina just proved he’s able to beat elite talent, I have to believe he can be competitive once again against the No. 8 player.

Citi Open predictions made at 1:34 p.m. on 07/26/2025.

Citi Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Fernandez vs. Rybakina, Kalinskaya vs. Raducanu

One Canadian is rolling into the semifinal of the Citi Open.

The latest: Leylah Fernandez has found her form, but the competition will only get tougher with Elena Rybakina on tap. Later on, Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Raducanu go head-to-head for the other spot in the final.

Check out my top Citi Open women’s predictions for July 26, featuring a pick on both matches.

Citi predictions: Women’s semis

Best bet: Rybakina -1.5 sets (-141)

A lot is working against the Canadian in this matchup.

Rybakina is having a fantastic year, holding a 33-13 record (19-7 on hard court surfaces).

While Fernandez has been strong too, she’s needed almost six hours to reach the semis while Rybakina needed just under three hours.

The Canadian needed to play one extra match, and Rybakina has been flawless, winning every set to this point.

Some fatigue set in for Fernandez last match when she battled through cramps in the second set of her win against Taylor Townsend.

Townsend is the 97th-ranked player on the WTA tour, however, and Rybakina ranks 12th. Having those same issues won’t fly against a top-14 player.

This is a step up in competition, and the favourite has a lot more working in her favour.

Key stat: Rybakina is difficult to break. She has a great serve and is a world-class ball striker. She’s held 80% of her service games this season.

Full Citi Open betting markets

Kalinskaya vs. Raducanu best bet

Over 21.5 games (-112): These two have been consistently strong on outdoor hardcourts in their careers:

Kalinskaya: 161-85
Raducanu: 88-40

A lot of that comes from their shared ability to hold serve. At the Citi Open, Kalinskaya has held 85% of her serves while Raducanu falls just behind at 84%.

Neither player has lost a set at this event so far, making it difficult to pick a side.

That’s why I’ll opt for an over that can hit in two lengthy sets. If this game goes to a third set, the match should easily go over 21.5 games.

Both Kalinskaya and Raducanu have their best winning percentages on hard court surfaces. This has all the makings of a competitive matchup.

Citi Open predictions made at 12:11 p.m. on 07/26/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers SGP predictions July 26: Target Vladimir Guerrero Jr. during hot streak

The Toronto Blue Jays own MLB’s best record and look for a series win against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto took the first two games of this series, continuing its rampage on offence with 17 runs so far. The matchup doesn’t get any tougher than today’s, though, with Tarik Skubal on the mound for Detroit.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions, featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kevin Gausman.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions

Parlay: Guerrero over 0.5 hits | Gausman over 5.5 Ks | Skubal under 7.5 Ks (+340)

Guerrero over 0.5 hits (-167): I know Skubal will be throwing to Guerrero for at least a handful of innings, but this value is too good to pass up.

Guerrero is raking right now, grabbing a hit in 10 of his last 20 plate appearances, dating back to the series with the New York Yankees.

He has at least a hit in seven of eight games since the all-star break.

Plus, he’s elite at getting to left-handed pitching. He has a .337/.435/.534 slash line against lefties this season.

And he’s seen Skubal well in a limited sample size. In four plate appearances against the Tigers’ ace, Guerrero has two hits and a walk.

Finally, Detroit has the sixth-worst bullpen ERA in the AL (4.08), so Guerrero will still have a good shot to get to a reliever if Skubal shoves.

MLB SGP legs

Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-120): Gausman is starting to heat up, and it’s coming at the right time.

In his last start vs. the Yankees, he pitched 7.0 innings, allowing just one run while striking out eight.

Over his past five appearances, he has a 2.35 ERA with 28 Ks in 30.2 IP.

The Tigers also don’t hit Gausman very well. The lineup has a .229 average in 96 at-bats with a 28.7% K rate.

If the Blue Jays veteran righty can work into the later innings, there will be plenty of opportunity for this leg to cash.

The Tigers strike out the fifth most in the majors.

Skubal under 7.5 Ks (-195): My colleague, Avery Perri, wrote about Skubal under 6.5 Ks in his Blue Jays vs. Tigers prop picks. I’ll tease it up to add it into this SGP.

There’s no denying that Skubal is a strikeout machine, with an MLB-leading 11.6 K/9.

But the Blue Jays are arguably the best offence in baseball and are especially hot coming into this game. Since the break, Toronto is scoring 6.4 runs per game.

On top of that, the Jays strike out the fewest times per game in the majors while owning the best OBP (.333).

They won’t kill you with power, but with constant rallies, limiting the ceiling of opposing pitchers.

In Toronto’s last 25 games, 24 opposing starters have fallen short of this mark.

Blue Jays vs. Tigers predictions made at 10:15 a.m. ET on 07/26/2025.

UFC Fight Night predictions and odds July 26: Best bet for Whittaker vs. De Ridder

One of the middleweight greats puts his UFC ranking on the line this Saturday against a hungry up-and-comer.

The pre-fight narrative: Robert Whittaker makes his 24th walk to the octagon in this promotion, and he’s the slight favourite over Reinier De Ridder. The Dutch fighter is 3-0 in his UFC career and could be on the shortlist for a title shot with a win over the former middleweight king.

Check out my UFC Fight Night predictions for the July 26 event in Abu Dhabi.

UFC Fight Night predictions

Best bet: De Ridder to win (+120)

De Ridder was already one of the best middleweights in the world coming into the UFC last year.

Before joining the company, De Ridder was dominant in ONE Championship, becoming the third-ever two-division champion in ONE, winning the middleweight and light heavyweight belts simultaneously.

His overall record of 20-2 is very impressive, with both losses coming against 14-1 heavyweight Anatoly Malykhin.

It’s understandable why De Ridder was outmatched two weight classes above his natural middleweight division.

His UFC career sees him back at 185 pounds, and he’s been dominant. He’s won three straight fights by finish, notably choking out Kevin Holland and most recently halting the momentum of Bo Nikal with a brutal barrage of strikes.

But his advantage over Whittaker isn’t on the feet. De Ridder is an amazing grappler, averaging 4.74 takedowns per 15 minutes.

If we go back to Whittaker’s most recent loss, he was outclassed on the mat by Khamzat Chimaev.

Although I don’t expect De Ridder to finish Whittaker in the first round, I believe the underdog can use his chain wrestling to win points and pull away on the scorecards.

This is a great shot for the veteran fighter to move up into the top of the rankings.

It’s not like De Ridder has poor stand-up skills, either.

Key stat: He has a better striking accuracy (60%) than Whittaker (43%) and absorbs more than one fewer sig. strike per minute.

Fight card and odds

Fighter	Odds	Weight class	Odds	Fighter
Robert Whittaker (5)	-154	Middleweight	+120	Reinier De Ridder (13)
Petr Yan (3)	-400	Bantamweight	+285	Marcus McGhee (12)
Sharabutdin Magomedov	-650	Middleweight	+400	Marc-Andre Barriault
Nikita Krylov (10)	-223	Light heavyweight	+162	Bogdan Guskov
Said Nurmagomedov	+115	Bantamweight	-150	Bryce Mitchell

UFC Fight Night odds as of 1:45 p.m. on 07/24/2025.

See all UFC Fight Night betting lines

UFC best bet

Guskov to win (+162): I love the value on Guskov in this matchup.

If you haven’t seen him fight, he’s always looking for a finish, which is a great asset to work with.

Guskov is 3-1 in the UFC (17-3 overall).

He’s currently on a three-fight win streak with all three victories coming inside the distance.

Two of those wins came by KO and the other by submission, showing off Guskov’s versatility as a fighter.

All 17 of his professional wins have come by finish. He’s going out there to win convincingly, which at least saves us from an underwhelming performance.

Krylov is a staple in the light heavyweight division, but he’s coming off a brutal KO loss to Dominick Reyes in the first round.

That bout was in April, so I have my concerns about Krylov’s recovery after just a few months off.

And Guskov isn’t the fighter to test your chin against. The 32-year-old has a knockdown in two of his last three bouts. He’s also outlanded his last two opponents by more than double their strikes.

UFC Fight Night predictions and odds July 26: Best bet for Whittaker vs. De Ridder

One of the middleweight greats puts his UFC ranking on the line this Saturday against a hungry up-and-comer.

The pre-fight narrative: Robert Whittaker makes his 24th walk to the octagon in this promotion, and he’s the slight favourite over Reinier De Ridder. The Dutch fighter is 3-0 in his UFC career and could be on the shortlist for a title shot with a win over the former middleweight king.

Check out my UFC Fight Night predictions for the July 26 event in Abu Dhabi.

UFC Fight Night predictions

Best bet: De Ridder to win (+123)