Spencer Closs

The 2025 Cincinnati Open men’s semifinal goes down today with ATP’s top three-ranked players all in action.

The pre-match narrative: First, it will be Jannik Sinner welcoming Terence Atmane to his first-ever ATP semifinal. Later on, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev meet for an epic showdown for the remaining spot in the final.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open tennis predictions for the men’s semifinal.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Zverev/Alcaraz under 23.5 games (-117)

These two have played each other 11 times since the start of 2021, so there’s plenty of data to study.

They are pretty evenly split, with Zverev winning six matches to Alcaraz’s five.

But the most notable thing to me was how quick most of the matches were.

Four of those 11 matches were at Grand Slam majors, so I’m not including those three-set matches. But, in the other seven, six were settled in straight sets with all of them going under today’s total.

It seems like this is one of those matchups where whoever’s the better player on that day dominates.

And I’m expecting that again with how these two have been rolling at the Cincinnati Open.

Key stat: Six of the eight matches played by either Zverev or Alcaraz have gone under this total.

Full tennis betting markets

Sinner vs. Atmane best bet

Sinner -2.5 games in Set 1 (-104): The goal here is to find value on Sinner and I think this is the best way to go.

• The Italian is 3-1 against this wager at the Cincinnati Open.

• Sinner has only faced six break points while having 44 opportunities to break his opponent.

• Most notably, he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinal and dominated the first set, winning 6-0.

The world No. 1 is an incredible server and his court IQ is unmatched. It’s not a stretch to say he looks unbeatable right now.

Sinner is undefeated on hardcourts this season (11-0) and 51-5 since the start of 2024.

In those 11 wins, he covered this first set spread eight times. Much of the competition he faced was better than Atmane, who ranks 136th in the world.

I do have to give the Frenchman his flowers, though. He’s won seven matches at this event — five of them in straight sets.

That includes knocking off Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune in back-to-back matches.

But that also means Atmane has played almost 11 hours of tennis at this event compared to Sinner, who has played just under six.

I fully expect Sinner to assert his dominance early, which should result in a quick first set.

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 10:11 a.m. on 08/16/2025.

The 2025 Cincinnati Open quarterfinal concludes on Friday with a few stars looking to secure their spots in the semifinal.

The pre-match narrative: Two top 10 players meet when Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton face off for the final spot on the men’s side. On the women’s side, Coco Gauff looks to bounce back from her recent losses against Jasmine Paolini.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open tennis predictions, featuring a pick on Andrey Rublev vs. No. 2-ranked Carlos Alcaraz.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Shelton/Zverev over 25.5 games (-107)

Shelton is white hot right now.

• He’s won nine straight matches. That includes securing his first title of the season, winning the National Bank Open in Toronto.

• Shelton has followed that up by winning all three matches at the Cincinnati Open in straight sets.

• The 22-year-old is 21-6 on hardcourts, shaping into an elite player on the surface.

Zverev has been rolling, too, winning two matches in straight sets before Karen Khachanov had to retire from their round of 16 matchup with an injury.

The world No. 3 is also a fantastic hardcourt player. His 220-102 record rivals the best in the sport.

That makes it hard to pick a side, especially between two players who are serving the ball extremely well.

But that does make the over intriguing, even on a higher total.

Key stat: At the Cincinnati Open, both Shelton and Zverev share an indentical 96% service hold rate, with each player being broken just once.

Full tennis betting markets

Paolini vs. Gauff best bet

Gauff -3.5 games (-117): When these two meet, the playing surface seems to be a notable factor.

• Paolini is 2-0 on clay while Gauff is 2-0 on hardcourts.

• It adds up as Paolini’s 57.7% win rate on hardcourts is significantly worse than her 64.9% win rate on clay.

Gauff is elite regardless of the court type. Her 147-64 record on hardcourts (69.7%) reflects that.

The American has had two convincing straight-set wins at the Cincinnati Open and got one extra match of rest because of a walkover.

Paolini has won all six of her sets at this event but needed three tiebreakers along the way.

Because of that, Gauff has played two fewer hours to reach the quarters, so I feel good backing the more rested, higher-ranked player with a surface advantage.

Rublev vs. Alcaraz best bet

Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-139): Alcaraz is on an incredible run in 2025.

• The Spaniard is 51-6 this season.

• He’s 27-1 in his last 28 matches, with the one loss coming against Jannik Sinner. But he also beat Sinner twice in that span.

Rublev is having a down year at 29-18, and his 13-8 hardcourt record isn’t all that impressive either.

Alexei Popyrin was the only top-20-ranked opponent he faced at this event, and he needed all three sets in the win.

The last time Rublev played someone in the top 10, he lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets.

These two have never played on outdoor hardcourts, but they have played indoors, and Alcaraz won both of those matches without dropping a set.

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 10:11 a.m. on 08/15/2025.