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Everton vs. Leeds United best bet Aug. 18: EPL Matchday Week 1 picks and predictions

The 2025-26 English Premier League season kicks off with Matchday 1 this weekend.

The pregame narrative: There are 20 teams in action for the weekly slate, including a club that has rejoined the Premiership. Everton welcomes recently promoted Leeds United, which is a favourite for its first game back in the EPL after two years.

Check out my EPL predictions and best bets for the season-opening soccer action, featuring a pick on the Manchester United vs. Arsenal match.

EPL predictions

Best bet: Manchester United/Arsenal both teams to score (-143)

Arsenal was third in scoring last season, finishing with 69 goals despite dealing with numerous injuries.

Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard missed a majority of the season but come into 2025-26 at full health.

Both teams also made a splash during the transfer window.

Man U signed three attackers (Bryan Mbeumo, Benjamin Sesko, Matheus Cunha), all for $50 million or more.

Arsenal, meanwhile, bought centre forward Viktor Gyokeres for $75 million.

We have yet to see what these additions can provide on offence, but I don’t think it’s crazy to expect a lot of goals from these clubs to start the new season.

Mbeumo and Cunha, the signings who already played in England, had 35 tallies and 13 assists in the Premier League last season.

Gyokeres had 39 goals and seven assists in 33 games in Liga Portugal last season, so he’s looking like a strong candidate to fill Arsenal’s gap up top.

Both sides made huge offensive moves, and I can’t help but think this is going to be a barn burner.

Key stat: This bet cashed in four of the last six matches between Manchester United and Arsenal.

EPL betting markets

Premier League picks: Matchday 1

Everton to win (+195): I love the underdog value here on Everton.

Midway through last season, the Toffees made a change, re-hiring David Moyes as manager. And that’s when things turned around.

Everton picked up points in 15 matches while losing just four from that point on.

That included eight wins and draws over clubs such as Liverpool and Arsenal, the EPL’s top two finishers.

Everton sees the potential and has spent some money this transfer window to bolster its squad. Attacker Thierno Barry joins the team from Villarreal in La Liga, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall joins the midfield from Chelsea.

These two players cost close to $60 million combined.

Leeds earned promotion to the top flight by winning the Championship. The club is expected to do well this season, but I’ll side with the experienced EPL team that finished the 2024-25 campaign in strong form.

Over the last 19 games of the 2024-25 season, Everton had the ninth-most points in the EPL (31).

EPL predictions made at 8:43 a.m. on 08/15/25.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Cincinnati Open prediction: Best bet for 2025 men’s final

The 2025 Cincinnati Open men’s final will feature an epic showdown between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

The pre-match narrative: The Italian exercised his demons in London in July, beating Alcaraz to claim his second Grand Slam of the season. But Alcaraz has had his opponent’s number more often than not and looks to add another trophy to his cabinet.

Check out my top Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction for the men’s final on Aug. 17.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction

Best bet: Alcaraz to win (+140)

These two are basically unbeatable at the moment, so it’s not surprising that they meet often in the final of events they both participate in.

Alcarez is 53-6 this season and 112-29 all-time on outdoor hardcourts.

Sinner is 31-3 in 2025 and 52-5 on this playing surface since the start of last season.

That makes it really hard to pick a side, but I do see some advantages on the side of the Spaniard.

Firstly, he’s won five of his six past matches against Sinner and is 9-5 overall in the series between rivals. Two of those five wins were on hardcourts, while the loss was at the Wimbledon final on grass.

It’s also worth noting that Alcaraz’s 79.4% win rate on the playing surface is better than Sinner’s 76.5%.

If this were a pick’em, I’d probably still be picking Alcaraz. So in my mind it makes a lot of sense to back him as a sizeable underdog.

Full tennis betting markets

The longer this game goes, the more I lean towards Alcaraz getting the victory and a lengthy match is very possible.

Six of the past eight sets played between these two have gone to tiebreakers.

So it’s interesting to see that over the past year, Alacaraz has won 80% of game-deciding sets while Sinner falls behind at 63%.

That seems to be a large reason for the world No. 2’s recent success over his Italian counterpart.

Sinner sitting at -182 to win this match is just too rich for me, and I like the value on the Alcaraz despite the Sinner’s recent dominance.

Key stat: Alcaraz has won 15 straight matches at ATP 1000 events, showing off his consistency even when he’s not at his sharpest.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz Cincinnati Open prediction made at 3:57 p.m. on 08/17/2025.

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz Cincinnati Open prediction: Best bet for 2025 men’s final

The 2025 Cincinnati Open men’s final will feature an epic showdown between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.

The pre-match narrative: The Italian exercised his demons in London in July, beating Alcaraz to claim his second Grand Slam of the season. But Alcaraz has had his opponent’s number more often than not and looks to add another trophy to his cabinet.

Check out my top Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction for the men’s final on Aug. 17.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction

Best bet: Alcaraz to win (+145)

These two are basically unbeatable at the moment, so it’s not surprising that they meet often in the final of events they both participate in.

Alcarez is 53-6 this season and 112-29 all-time on outdoor hardcourts.

Sinner is 31-3 in 2025 and 52-5 on this playing surface since the start of last season.

That makes it really hard to pick a side, but I do see some advantages on the side of the Spaniard.

Firstly, he’s won five of his six past matches against Sinner and is 9-5 overall in the series between rivals. Two of those five wins were on hardcourts, while the loss was at the Wimbledon final on grass.

It’s also worth noting that Alcaraz’s 79.4% win rate on the playing surface is better than Sinner’s 76.5%.

If this were a pick’em, I’d probably still be picking Alcaraz. So in my mind it makes a lot of sense to back him as a sizeable underdog.

Full tennis betting markets

The longer this game goes, the more I lean towards Alcaraz getting the victory and a lengthy match is very possible.

Six of the past eight sets played between these two have gone to tiebreakers.

So it’s interesting to see that over the past year, Alacaraz has won 80% of game-deciding sets while Sinner falls behind at 63%.

That seems to be a large reason for the world No. 2’s recent success over his Italian counterpart.

Sinner sitting at -182 to win this match is just too rich for me, and I like the value on the Alcaraz despite the Sinner’s recent dominance.

Key stat: Alcaraz has won 15 straight matches at ATP 1000 events, showing off his consistency even when he’s not at his sharpest.

Sinner vs. Alcaraz Cincinnati Open prediction made at 9:51 a.m. on 08/17/2025.

Padres vs. Dodgers SGP predictions: Bet on Tyler Glasnow, Andy Pages at +325

The Los Angeles Dodgers can complete an important sweep at home over the San Diego Padres on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: L.A. now leads the NL West by one game and can build on that with another win over the Padres. The Dodgers are favoured in this contest behind Tyler Glasnow, but Yu Darvish has been dialled in over his recent starts.

Check out my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, including props on Glasnow and Andy Pages.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Under 9.5 runs | Glasnow over 5.5 Ks | Pages over 0.5 hits (+325)

Under 9.5 runs (-190): I decided to tease up the total and take the under behind two streaking pitchers.

Let’s start with Darvish. He started the season slowly off the IL, recording a 9.18 ERA over his first four starts.

But take a look at his turnaround over his last three starts:

17.0 innings pitched
2.12 ERA (2.88 FIP)
18 Ks to only 2 walks allowed

He’s been looking like prime Darvish again, and that should be a scary sight for the Dodgers.

In 234 total at-bats, L.A.’s offence has 47 hits. That equates to a .201 average.

The Dodgers have a lot of lefty bats that struggle in this matchup.

The most notable being Shohei Ohtani, who’s 1-for-11 off Darvish in his career with five Ks.

I’ll write more on Glasnow in my next pick, but just know he has a similarly dominant past against the Padres.

MLB SGP legs

Glasnow over 5.5 Ks (-118): Let’s begin with Glasnow’s history against the Padres.

In 83 plate appearances, San Diego’s offence has more Ks (28) than hits (10), and it’s not close.

That equals out to a .127 average and 33.7% K rate.

The big righty has also been dealing over his past six starts:

2.34 ERA
10.8 K/9
4-2 against this line

There really isn’t too much to think about here. Glasnow has shoved against San Diego in the past and is pitching at an elite level right now.

The Padres strike out the fewest times per game in the NL, but I don’t think it matters in this matchup. Plus, bettors are getting a better line.

Pages over 0.5 hits (-190): Pages is hitless in this series and the last three games overall, but check out his seven games before that:

.371 average
.915 OPS
1+ hit in all seven games

He also hits lefties at a .295 clip this season while holding a .268 average against righties.

I don’t expect L.A. to have much success in this matchup with Darvish, but I’m optimistic about Pages’ chances of landing at least a base knock.

Padres vs. Dodgers predictions made at 1:33 p.m. ET on 08/17/2025.

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Best WNBA props Aug. 17: Bet on Alyssa Thomas, Rhyne Howard on Sunday

There are two late games on the WNBA schedule today, and I’ve got a prop pick from each.

The latest: Alyssa Thomas is in the hunt for her first-ever MVP award and can build on her amazing season against the Seattle Storm on Sunday. After that, look for Rhyne Howard to stay hot from behind the 3-point line.

Check out the best WNBA prop bets for Aug. 17.

WNBA prop bets

Best bet: Thomas over 23.5 points/rebounds (-122)

Thomas now holds the second-shortest odds to win MVP behind favourite Napheesa Collier.

And that’s because Phoenix’s forward is flirting with averaging a triple-double for the season.

16.1 points
8.6 rebounds
9.0 assists

Plus, she’s been balling over the last nine games, upping two of those averages to 18.7 points and 10.7 rebounds.

During that time, she’s shooting 55.8% from the field and is 6-3 against this wager.

If we go back to earlier in the year, Thomas was very productive against the Storm.

Key stat: In two games vs. Seattle this season, Thomas is averaging 27.0 points/rebounds.

Full WNBA betting markets

Best WNBA picks

Howard over 2.5 threes (+114): Howard is chucking up shots at such a high volume right now that this line is almost a must bet.

Over her last 15 games, Howard is attempting 10.5 threes per game and making 3.2 (30.6%).

She’s 10-5 against this line, giving this wager a solid floor.

The efficiency hasn’t been good, but it clearly doesn’t matter much when Howard is taking so many shots.

In terms of volume allowed, this is also the best matchup in the WNBA.

The Golden State Valkyries allow the most 3-point shots against per game (27.8).

Considering Howard takes more threes per game than anyone else (9.4), I expect the high volume to continue, making this a very achievable number.

WNBA prop picks made at 11:47 a.m. ET on 08/17/2025.

Cincinnati Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Swiatek vs. Rybakina, Kudermetova vs. Paolini

The 2025 Cincinnati Open women’s semifinal will be played on Sunday with three of the world’s top 10 players in the mix.

The pre-match narrative: The action will start with Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina meeting for the fourth time this season. After that, Veronika Kudermetova and Jasmine Paolini battle for the remaining spot in the final.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open tennis predictions for the women’s semifinal.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Swiatek -2.5 games (-112)

Swiatek had a rough start to the season, but she’s in top form ahead of her semifinal appearance at the Cincinnati Open.

She’s won 15 of her last 18 matches, covering this spread in every win.

Swiatek is 26-7 on hardcourts this season and 139-26 since the start of 2022.

On top of that, she’s 3-0 vs. Rybakina this year, winning the two matches contested on hardcourts in straight sets.

Rybakina is no slouch, but she hasn’t been nearly as dominant as her counterpart at this event.

She did just knock off world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets, but needed all three sets to win the other three matches.

Because of that, she’s played almost twice as much tennis to get to the final as Swiatek.

There are too many advantages to ignore for the favourite in this matchup.

Key stat: Swiatek has won every match at the Cincinnati Open in straight sets by an average of 5.7 games

Full tennis betting markets

Kudermetova vs. Paolini best bet

Paolini to win (-125): Kudermetova has been impressive at the Cincinnati Open, winning four of her five matches in straight sets.

But I can’t ignore her lack of competition en route to the final.

She has played two top-20 opponents, with the highest-ranked being Clara Tauson (No. 15). That’s also the match in which she struggled the most, needing to go the distance to win.

Paolini is on a tier above those players, ranking No. 9 in the world and recently being in the top five.

She also has the best win of the duo, eliminating Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal.

Paolini is 32-13 this season and was able to win the other three matches without much issue.

The Italian can be streaky, but everything points to her being on the rise right now, and I love the value on her in this spot.

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 9:51 a.m. on 08/17/2025.

Cincinnati Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets for Swiatek vs. Rybakina, Kudermetova vs. Paolini

The 2025 Cincinnati Open women’s semifinal will be played on Sunday with three of the world’s top 10 players in the mix.

The pre-match narrative: The action will start with Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina meeting for the fourth time this season. After that, Veronika Kudermetova and Jasmine Paolini battle for the remaining spot in the final.

Check out my top Cincinnati Open tennis predictions for the women’s semifinal.

Cincinnati Open predictions

Best bet: Swiatek -2.5 games (-108)

Swiatek had a rough start to the season, but she’s in top form ahead of her semifinal appearance at the Cincinnati Open.

She’s won 15 of her last 18 matches, covering this spread in every win.

Swiatek is 26-7 on hardcourts this season and 139-26 since the start of 2022.

On top of that, she’s 3-0 vs. Rybakina this year, winning the two matches contested on hardcourts in straight sets.

Rybakina is no slouch, but she hasn’t been nearly as dominant as her counterpart at this event.

She did just knock off world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets, but needed all three sets to win the other three matches.

Because of that, she’s played almost twice as much tennis to get to the final as Swiatek.

There are too many advantages to ignore for the favourite in this matchup.

Key stat: Swiatek has won every match at the Cincinnati Open in straight sets by an average of 5.7 games

Full tennis betting markets

Kudermetova vs. Paolini best bet

Paolini to win (-127): Kudermetova has been impressive at the Cincinnati Open, winning four of her five matches in straight sets.

But I can’t ignore her lack of competition en route to the final.

She has played two top-20 opponents, with the highest-ranked being Clara Tauson (No. 15). That’s also the match in which she struggled the most, needing to go the distance to win.

Paolini is on a tier above those players, ranking No. 9 in the world and recently being in the top five.

She also has the best win of the duo, eliminating Coco Gauff in the quarterfinal.

Paolini is 32-13 this season and was able to win the other three matches without much issue.

The Italian can be streaky, but everything points to her being on the rise right now, and I love the value on her in this spot.

Cincinnati Open predictions made at 9:51 a.m. on 08/17/2025.

La Liga picks and predictions Aug. 17: Target Alexander Sorloth for Atletico Madrid

The first weekend of La Liga action concludes with two afternoon matches on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: It starts with Athletic Bilbao, looking to build off a strong season, against Sevilla, which narrowly escaped relegation in 2024-25. After that, European powerhouse Atletico Madrid looks to get off on the right foot against Espanyol.

Check out my La Liga predictions and best bets for the season-opening soccer action, featuring Alexander Sorloth

La Liga predictions

Best bet: Alexander Sorloth to score (-108)

The 6-foot-5 striker is a clinical goalscorer in every way.

Last season, he only started 15 matches (35 appearances) but still managed to score 20 goals.

His 1.15 goals per 90 minutes ranked first and far outpaced Kylan Mbappe’s 0.96 goals per 90 (31 total goals).

Sorloth recorded the second-most shots on goal per 90 last season (2.4).

I expect him to start on Sunday, but he will probably be subbed off in the second half, especially if Madrid holds the lead.

And it’s very possible Atletico is up multiple goals by that point. The side is -167 to win and -122 to score two or more goals.

That’s because Espanyol was one of the worst defensive sides in La Liga last season.

Key stat: Amongst teams that didn’t get relegated, Espanyol was tied for the most xG conceded last season (54.6).

La Liga betting markets

La Liga picks: Week 1

Sevilla under 0.5 goals (+100): Bilbao was Spain’s best defensive team last season, being the only club to concede fewer than 30 goals.

The side held a clean sheet in eight of the final 11 matches last season, including a 1-0 win over Sevilla.

Bilbao will also have the advantage of playing at home.

Sevilla was a huge disappointment last season, finishing one point clear of relegation with 41 points and a -13 goal differential.

The side was a below-average offensive team, scoring 1.1 goals per game and should struggle to score in a tough matchup.

Sevilla didn’t bring in any notable players this transfer window and could be back in the battle to avoid relegation again this season.

La Liga predictions made at 1:21 p.m. on 08/16/25.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal SGP predictions Aug. 17: Bet on Viktor Gyokeres, Amad Diallo at +375

Manchester United vs. Arsenal predictions

Manchester United and Arsenal clash on Sunday to kick off their EPL seasons.

The pregame narrative: Arsenal saw its title hopes ruined by injuries last season, but brought in Viktor Gyorekes to fill a huge need at the striker position. Man U made big moves of its own and looks for a much better result this season after finishing 15th in 2024-25.

Check out my Manchester United vs. Arsenal predictions, including props on Gyorekes and Amad Diallo.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal predictions

Parlay: Both teams to score | Gyokeres over 1.5 shots on target | Diallo over 0.5 shots (+375)

Both teams to score (-141): I wrote about this pick in my EPL predictions for this weekend, so why not add it to this SGP?

Arsenal finished with 69 goals last season, the third most in the Premier League, despite dealing with numerous injuries.

Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Jesus missed significant time but come into the new campaign healthy.

Both sides also went big with the signings this summer.

Man U spent over $50 million a piece on attackers Bryan Mbeumo, Benjamin Sesko and Matheus Cunha.

Arsenal, meanwhile, purchased centre forward Viktor Gyokeres for $75 million.

Mbeumo and Cunha combined for 35 goals and 13 assists in the EPL last season.

I’ll touch more on Gyokeres later, but just know he was one of the most clinical attackers in Europe.

Both United and Arsenal went all in on offence during the transfer window, and I can’t help but expect goals in their opening match on Sunday.

EPL SGP legs

Gyokeres over 1.5 shots on target (+140): He’s never played in the EPL, but the Swedish attacker has dominated everywhere he has played.

Gyokeres spent the most recent 2024-25 campaign with Sporting in the Portuguese league and scored 39 goals in 33 matches.

That included 2.12 shots on target per 90 minutes.

His competition was indeed much weaker, but he also played with less talented teammates. Gyorekes is joining a top team in England and will surely benefit from the playmaking.

Arsenal was in desperate need of a true striker, and Gyokeres fits the bill. I can’t see the Gunners being shy about deploying their new expensive transfer.

If he plays a good amount of minutes, it should be more than enough for a player of his calibre to create a few shots on target.

Gyorekes ranks in the 99th percentile amongst forwards for shots per 90 (4.04) and shot-creating actions per 90 (4.91).

Diallo over 0.5 shots (-305): This final leg has some chalk attached but takes the SGP from +250 to +375, so it’s a welcome addition.

The 23-year-old is an attacking-minded midfielder, recording 2.23 shots per 90 for Manchester United in the EPL last season.

He appeared in 26 Premier League matches and had a respectable eight goals and six assists.

Diallo appeared in two friendlies over the past month and cleared this line in both.

In fact, across all competitions, he went 33-9 against this wager for the Red Devils in 2024-25.

As he matures, his role should only expand moving forward, leading to even more shot opportunities.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal predictions made at 2:18 p.m. ET on 08/16/2025.

La Liga picks and predictions Aug. 17: Target Alexander Sorloth for Atletico Madrid

The first weekend of La Liga action concludes with two afternoon matches on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: It starts with Athletic Bilbao, looking to build off a strong season, against Sevilla, which narrowly escaped relegation in 2024-25. After that, European powerhouse Atletico Madrid looks to get off on the right foot against Espanyol.

Check out my La Liga predictions and best bets for the season-opening soccer action, featuring Alexander Sorloth

La Liga predictions

Best bet: Alexander Sorloth to score (+170)

The 6-foot-5 striker is a clinical goalscorer in every way.

Last season, he only started 15 matches (35 appearances) but still managed to score 20 goals.

His 1.15 goals per 90 minutes ranked first and far outpaced Kylan Mbappe’s 0.96 goals per 90 (31 total goals).

Sorloth recorded the second-most shots on goal per 90 last season (2.4).

I expect him to start on Sunday, but he will probably be subbed off in the second half, especially if Madrid holds the lead.

And it’s very possible Atletico is up multiple goals by that point. The side is -167 to win and -122 to score two or more goals.

That’s because Espanyol was one of the worst defensive sides in La Liga last season.

Key stat: Amongst teams that didn’t get relegated, Espanyol was tied for the most xG conceded last season (54.6).

La Liga betting markets

La Liga picks: Week 1

Sevilla under 0.5 goals (-109): Bilbao was Spain’s best defensive team last season, being the only club to concede fewer than 30 goals.

The side held a clean sheet in eight of the final 11 matches last season, including a 1-0 win over Sevilla.

Bilbao will also have the advantage of playing at home.

Sevilla was a huge disappointment last season, finishing one point clear of relegation with 41 points and a -13 goal differential.

The side was a below-average offensive team, scoring 1.1 goals per game and should struggle to score in a tough matchup.

Sevilla didn’t bring in any notable players this transfer window and could be back in the battle to avoid relegation again this season.

La Liga predictions made at 1:21 p.m. on 08/16/25.