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US Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets on Sabalenka vs. Pegula, Osaka vs. Anisimova

The U.S. Open women’s semifinal matches go down Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka’s title defence continues when she plays Jessica Pegula. After that, Naomi Osaka looks to reach her first Grand Slam final since 2021, but first she’ll need to overcome a very tough opponent in Amanda Anisimova.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the women’s semifinal.

US Open picks: Women’s semifinal

Best Bet: Osaka to win (-114)

It’s been quite the career renaissance for Osaka, who’s putting together her best season since being ranked No. 1 back in 2019.

Osaka is 32-12 in 2025 (21-6 on hardcourts).

She’s been dominant recently, winning 11 of her last 12 matches with nine of those victories coming in straight sets.

When she’s at her best, she’s one of the elite players on this surface, demonstrated by her 203-95 career record on hardcourts.

That is much better than Anisimova’s 116-68 hardcourt record (18-7 this season).

It’s still worth noting how well Anisimova is playing, though. She’s lost just one set at the U.S. Open and most recently eliminated Iga Swiatek in straight sets.

But Osaka has notable wins of her own, beating No. 3-ranked Coco Gauff in straight sets before eliminating No. 13 Karolina Muchova in a similar fashion.

Before the U.S. Open, Anisimova lost back-to-back matches convincingly. Meanwhile, Osaka has had one loss since the start of August in a close match against Victoria Mboko in the National Bank Open final.

These two are evenly matched as seen by the pick’em price, but I’ll gladly back Osaka’s momentum and ability on hardcourts.

Key stat: The Japanese star has been extremely good at taking advantage of break opportunities. At the U.S. Open, she has won 81% of her total break points (25-of-31) while Anisimova has converted at a measly 40% (23-of-57).

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Full tennis betting markets

US Open best bet

Sabalenka -1.5 sets (-107): This pick feels like a no-brainer. Sabalenka is the best in the world and has an advantageous matchup.

The world No. 1 is the standard for consistency. She’s 54-10 this season, including a 30-5 record on hardcourts.

Pegula is having a great season herself, holding a 42-16 record (27-9 on this playing surface).

But when we look at their head-to-head history, it becomes apparent that Sabalenka is on a different level.

Sabalenka has won seven of the nine matches against Pegula in her career.

At the 2024 U.S. Open, Sabalenka defeated Pegula in the final in straight sets (7-5, 7-5).

Overall, these two have played three times on hardcourts since the start of 2024, and the favourite is 3-0 in those contests without dropping a set.

The reigning champ has cruised through the event so far, winning four matches in straight sets before receiving a walkover in the quarterfinal.

She is well rested and has always had the upper hand on Pegula. I expect a dominant win en route to another Grand Slam final.

Sabalenka has won 15 of the 19 total sets played between these competitors.

US Open picks made at 11:11 a.m. on 09/04/2025.

US Open quarterfinal picks and predictions Sept. 3: Best bets on Sinner vs. Musetti, Auger-Aliassime vs. de Minaur

The last two U.S. Open men’s semifinal spots are on the line Wednesday in New York City.

The pregame narrative: Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime has a chance to advance but will need to beat his third straight top-15 opponent in Alex de Minaur. In the other quarterfinal, Jannik Sinner goes against fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the quarterfinal.

US Open picks: Quarterfinal

Full tennis betting markets

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime to win (+125)

While these two have combined to lose just two sets at the U.S. Open, there’s been a sizeable difference in the level of competition.

de Minaur’s best opponent was No. 53-ranked Daniel Altmaier. Two of his other three opponents were ranked outside the ATP’s top 100.

Auger-Aliassime comfortably defeated No. 3 Alexander Zverev and, most recently, No. 15 Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

The Canadian’s service has been quality. He’s won 78% of his first serves, a slightly higher number than de Minaur, despite facing much better opponents.

Auger-Aliassime has also been better at avoiding breaks at this tournament, saving 58.3% of break points compared to the Australian’s 48.7% hold rate.

Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has won eight of 12 sets in his career vs. de Minaur and won their lone match on hard court.

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US Open best bets

Sinner/Musetti over 31 games (-120): Sinner will likely win this match, but this line is too low for me.

Both players have been at their top level, as neither has dropped more than a set in any prior match at the U.S. Open.

This under has cashed in six of their eight combined matches, but it’s been Sinner and Musetti doing the damage.

If we assume Sinner is going to win, it’s important to look at his opponent’s recent losses.

Musetti has won a set in each of his past five losses. That includes a match against Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open that lasted 31 games and was guaranteed to go over this total before the Italian retired with an injury.

And if Musetti were to pull off the upset, I think it’s safe to say Sinner would win enough games to secure the over on a modest total that could cash in three close sets.

US Open picks made at 1:32 p.m. on 09/02/2025.

US Open quarterfinal picks and predictions Sept. 3: Best bets on Sinner vs. Musetti, Auger-Aliassime vs. de Minaur

The last two U.S. Open men’s semifinal spots are on the line Wednesday in New York City.

The pregame narrative: Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime has a chance to advance but will need to beat his third straight top-15 opponent in Alex de Minaur. In the other quarterfinal, Jannik Sinner goes against fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the quarterfinal.

US Open picks: Quarterfinal

Full tennis betting markets

Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime to win (+140)

While these two have combined to lose just two sets at the U.S. Open, there’s been a sizeable difference in the level of competition.

de Minaur’s best opponent was No. 53-ranked Daniel Altmaier. Two of his other three opponents were ranked outside the ATP’s top 100.

Auger-Aliassime comfortably defeated No. 3 Alexander Zverev and, most recently, No. 15 Andrey Rublev in straight sets.

The Canadian’s service has been quality. He’s won 78% of his first serves, a slightly higher number than de Minaur, despite facing much better opponents.

Auger-Aliassime has also been better at avoiding breaks at this tournament, saving 58.3% of break points compared to the Australian’s 48.7% hold rate.

Key stat: Auger-Aliassime has won eight of 12 sets in his career vs. de Minaur and won their lone match on hard court.

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US Open best bets

Sinner/Musetti over 31.5 games (-113): Sinner will likely win this match, but this line is too low for me.

Both players have been at their top level, as neither has dropped more than a set in any prior match at the U.S. Open.

This under has cashed in six of their eight combined matches, but it’s been Sinner and Musetti doing the damage.

If we assume Sinner is going to win, it’s important to look at his opponent’s recent losses.

Musetti has won a set in each of his past five losses. That includes a match against Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open that lasted 31 games and was guaranteed to go over this total before the Italian retired with an injury.

And if Musetti were to pull off the upset, I think it’s safe to say Sinner would win enough games to secure the over on a modest total that could cash in three close sets.

US Open picks made at 1:32 p.m. on 09/02/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 2: Target Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve and Gunnar Henderson on Tuesday

A pair of AL contenders clash on Tuesday, and I have my eyes on two sluggers at plus money in that matchup.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Aaron Judge went through a cold spell recently, but he’s shaping back into form and has the right matchup to do damage. I’m also tapping into the Astros’ lineup and backing Jose Altuve against Yankees starter Max Fried.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 2, featuring a prediction on Gunnar Henderson.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+115)

The shortstop had a single and a walk in Monday’s series opener, falling short of this line.

Walks can be an issue when backing an over in the total bases market, but I’m not too concerned with Henderson’s average 9.0% walk rate.

He’s been seeing the ball well lately, too. Henderson has six hits in his last 19 plate appearances with just one strikeout.

Yu Darvish gets the start for the San Diego Padres, and he’s not been so good since coming back from his long injury recovery.

In 10 starts this season, the righty has a 5.66 ERA. That includes giving up nine earned runs over his past three outings (14.0 innings pitched).

It’s also a very limited sample size, but Henderson has a single and a double in three at-bats against Darvish in his career.

Key stat: Henderson will also enjoy the platoon advantage in this matchup. He bats .310 vs. righties with a .910 OPS.

Best MLB picks

Judge over 0.5 RBI (+140): I couldn’t pass up on this value on Judge, especially with how he’s heating up.

Over his last five games, he has seven hits, three home runs and four RBI.

In the seven games before that, he went 3-for-30 with 10 Ks, so it’s very encouraging to see the huge turnaround.

In 15 plate appearances against Framber Valdez, Judge has just three hits. But he does have four walks, equating to a .467 OBP.

That tells me he reads the starter well but hasn’t seen much to get a hold of.

Valdez is a lefty after all and Judge crushes LHPs with a 1.227 OPS this season. He ranks sixth in MLB with 97 RBI despite missing time.

Altuve over 0.5 runs (+140): This is a pick revolving mostly around Fried’s struggles against the Astros lineup.

Altuve hits third in Houston’s order, usually behind the trio of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Christian Walker.

The three have a combined .368 average in 38 career at-bats off Fried.

Altuve himself has been very successful in this matchup, with a .455 average and 1.318 OPS in 12 meetings with Fried.

The second baseman leads the Astros with 73 runs and should be in a great spot to add to that total on Tuesday.

In Fried’s first start against Houston this season, Altuve hit a home run in the first inning and scored three runs total.

MLB prop picks made at 1:23 p.m. ET on 09/03/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 2: Target Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve and Gunnar Henderson on Tuesday

A pair of AL contenders clash on Tuesday, and I have my eyes on two sluggers at plus money in that matchup.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Aaron Judge went through a cold spell recently, but he’s shaping back into form and has the right matchup to do damage. I’m also tapping into the Astros’ lineup and backing Jose Altuve against Yankees starter Max Fried.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 2, featuring a prediction on Gunnar Henderson.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 total bases (+106)

The shortstop had a single and a walk in Monday’s series opener, falling short of this line.

Walks can be an issue when backing an over in the total bases market, but I’m not too concerned with Henderson’s average 9.0% walk rate.

He’s been seeing the ball well lately, too. Henderson has six hits in his last 19 plate appearances with just one strikeout.

Yu Darvish gets the start for the San Diego Padres, and he’s not been so good since coming back from his long injury recovery.

In 10 starts this season, the righty has a 5.66 ERA. That includes giving up nine earned runs over his past three outings (14.0 innings pitched).

It’s also a very limited sample size, but Henderson has a single and a double in three at-bats against Darvish in his career.

Key stat: Henderson will also enjoy the platoon advantage in this matchup. He bats .310 vs. righties with a .910 OPS.

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Best MLB picks

Judge over 0.5 RBI (+135): I couldn’t pass up on this value on Judge, especially with how he’s heating up.

Over his last five games, he has seven hits, three home runs and four RBI.

In the seven games before that, he went 3-for-30 with 10 Ks, so it’s very encouraging to see the huge turnaround.

In 15 plate appearances against Framber Valdez, Judge has just three hits. But he does have four walks, equating to a .467 OBP.

That tells me he reads the starter well but hasn’t seen much to get a hold of.

Valdez is a lefty after all and Judge crushes LHPs with a 1.227 OPS this season. He ranks sixth in MLB with 97 RBI despite missing time.

Altuve over 0.5 runs (+150): This is a pick revolving mostly around Fried’s struggles against the Astros lineup.

Altuve hits third in Houston’s order, usually behind the trio of Carlos Correa, Jesus Sanchez and Christian Walker.

The three have a combined .368 average in 38 career at-bats off Fried.

Altuve himself has been very successful in this matchup, with a .455 average and 1.318 OPS in 12 meetings with Fried.

The second baseman leads the Astros with 73 runs and should be in a great spot to add to that total on Tuesday.

In Fried’s first start against Houston this season, Altuve hit a home run in the first inning and scored three runs total.

MLB prop picks made at 10:04 a.m. ET on 09/02/2025.

Top European soccer picks and predictions: Best bets for EPL, La Liga, Serie A this weekend

European soccer is back in full swing with the EPL, La Liga and Serie A all in action this weekend.

The pre-weekend narrative: Tottenham looks like a serious contender to make noise at the top of the Premier League table. The undefeated Hotspur host Bournemouth on Saturday. On Sunday, Inter Milan looks to build on a dominant start while taking on Udinese.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer predictions for games beginning on Aug. 30, 2025, featuring a pick on Real Madrid vs. Mallorca.

Soccer predictions

Tottenham vs. Bournemouth (Aug. 30, 10 a.m. ET)

Best bet: Tottenham to win (-138)

The Hotspur have been thriving so far under new manager Thomas Frank. Fans have boasted about the new tactics and rightfully so. Tottenham is 2-0 with two clean sheets.

One of the wins was over Manchester City, 2-0, and the side sits at a +5 goal differential It’s a very impressive start that I don’t see slowing down at home against Bournemouth.

The away side has a 1-1 record with the win coming against 0-2 Wolverhampton. Even then, Bournemouth scraped by with a one-goal win despite the Wolves going down to 10 men early in the second half.

The club’s also seen the lowest of lows. On Matchday 1, the Cherries were blown out at home, 4-0, by Man City.

This feels like a battle between teams on different tiers. Tottenham should control this match at home.

Key stat: Through two matches, the Hotspur have the highest average match rating in the EPL, per Fotmob (7.35).

Full EPL betting markets

La Liga best bet

Matchup: Real Madrid vs. Mallorca (Aug. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Read Madrid over 2.5 goals (-106): Bernabeu Stadium will be rocking this weekend with Los Blancos returning home after a 3-0 road win.

Madrid has yet to concede this season, but I want to tap into that offensive potential we saw on Matchday 2.

The side had 26 shot attempts (10 on target) against Oviedo. Kylian Mbappe led the way, scoring a brace.

Mallorca played a top-tier opponent in Barcelona already this season and got stifled 3-0. It had the benefit of playing at home for that game, which won’t be the case on Saturday.

Despite scoring four goals through two matches, Madrid has actually left production on the table, missing three big chances (tied for third most in La Liga).

Bet on La Liga soccer

Serie A prediction

Matchup: Inter Milan vs. Udinese (Aug. 31, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Inter Milan halftime/fulltime (-120): Milan looked dominant in its Serie A debut, battering Torino 5-0 last Sunday.

Just take a look at its offensive stats from the match:

Six big chances.
Nine shots on target.
Led Serie A with nine takeaways in the opposing third.

Inter may now have an elite offence to match its stonewall defence.

Udinese tied its first match at home against Verona, a team that finished six points above a relegation spot last season.

Because of that, I expect Nerazzurri to be the better side, grab an early lead, and never look back.

Bet on Serie A soccer

Soccer predictions made at 2:50 p.m. on 08/27/25.

US Open second-round picks and predictions Aug. 28: Best bets on Safiullin vs. Auger-Aliassime, Sinner vs. Popyrin

The second round at the U.S. Open continues Thursday with plenty of star power in action.

The pregame narrative: World No. 1 Jannik Sinner continues his historic season as he takes on Australian Alexei Popyrin. There’s also Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, who plays his second-round matchup against Roman Safiullin.

Check out my top US Open predictions for Aug. 28, including a pick on Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniel Altmaier.

US Open predictions: Aug. 28

Best Bet: Sinner/Popyrin under 30.5 games (-112)

When Sinner plays, it’s become about finding the best value on the Italian — and I think this is it.

He unsurprisingly dominated his first-round matchup, losing just four games over the three sets.

I would name that opponent, but it doesn’t really matter at this point as long as it’s not Carlos Alcaraz.

In matches against anyone but Alcaraz, Sinner is 31-1 this season, winning 28 of them in straight sets.

On hard courts, he has won 34 of 37 sets in 2025.

It’s hard to keep pace with Sinner, and I don’t think Popyrin has what it takes right now.

The 26-year-old is having a tough season, holding a 17-19 record (7-9 on hard courts). That’s not the level to be playing at when challenging a guy who’s 43-6 on the playing surface since the start of 2024.

Key stat: Sinner is on a 50-match winning streak on hard courts against players outside of the top 20.

Full tennis betting markets

US Open best bet: Safiullin vs. Auger-Alassime

Auger-Aliassime -4.5 games (-125): I like the value here backing the Canadian to pick up a comfortable win.

Auger-Aliassime looks to be finding his form again. He’s 4-1 in his past five, with all the wins coming in straight sets.

The loss was against Sinner, which doesn’t affect his stock.

His opponent, Safuillin, has a 13-19 record in 2025, with a 9-11 record on hard courts.

In the first round, Safuillin needed all five sets to best a rapidly declining 38-year-old Gael Monfils. Before that, he lost three of four matches, all contested on a hard court.

Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime covered this spread in his first match, beating Billy Harris, who at least had a decent 21-17 record on hard courts in 2025.

With how Safiullin has been playing, this is arguably a step down in competition, and the Canadian should continue rolling.

Best bet: Tsitsipas vs. Altmaier

Tsitsipas -2.5 sets (+187): Let’s end these picks off with a nice plus-money pick.

Altmaier is coming off a gruelling five-set match with Hamad Medjedovic, which lasted just under five hours.

The German wasn’t in the best form entering the U.S. Open, losing seven of his previous nine matches before his first-round win.

Tsitsipas lost his first set in his match against Alexandre Muller, but looked sharp in winning 19 of the last 26 games for the win.

Tsitsipas wasn’t playing the best before that, so it’s encouraging to see a rather dominant victory against a top-40 opponent.

Tsitsipas has always been a strong player on hard courts. He is 192-104 in his career and has never finished with a losing record on the surface over a full season.

Altmaier (No. 56) ranks worse than Tsitsipas’ first-round opponent, so I think it’s worth a shot on the Greek star to build on his momentum in dominant fashion.

US Open predictions made at 2:45 p.m. on 08/27/2025.

Twins vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 27: Expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to get back on track

The Toronto Blue Jays hope to grab a series win against the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto blew a 4-0 lead on Tuesday thanks to an all-around poor effort from the bullpen. Eric Lauer rejoins the rotation to make the start tonight at home, where he’s been lights out all year.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Twins for Aug. 27, featuring a prop bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Twins

Best bet: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-138)

There is some juice to pay on this line, but the Jays have a pitching advantage. And this is the best way to take advantage of it without relying on Toronto’s horrid bullpen.

Lauer has been outstanding this season, posting a 2.76 ERA in 14 starts (20 appearances).

He’s been even better at home with a 2.45 ERA and 9.8 K/9.
Earlier this season, Lauer made an appearance out of the pen vs. the Twins and gave up just one hit over 2.1 innings.

Tonight’s starter for Minnesota, Simeon Woods Richardson (4.24 ERA), had his season derailed by an illness that forced him to miss a month of action.

The right-hander makes his return against the Jays after making two minor league appearances, where he allowed four runs over 5.1 innings.

The former Blue Jays prospect made one start against Toronto last season and gave up five earned runs over 4.1 IP.

Key stat: Since the all-star break, Toronto has an MLB-best .293 team batting average. Minnesota is collectively batting .228 during that time.

Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 bases (+100): Guerrero has just one hit in 10 at-bats since returning to the lineup following a hamstring injury, but I fully expect him to get back to the monumental heater he was on before getting hurt.

Even with the last three games included, he’s slashing .344/.411/.648 since the Midsummer Classic.

In a small three-at-bat sample size, he has three singles off Woods Richardson in his career.

Guerrero is elite at taking free passes, while Woods Richardson has a 10.0% walk rate. But I’m still expecting the slugging first baseman to see plenty of quality pitches to hit in this one.

Additionally, the Twins have the ninth-worst bullpen ERA in the majors (4.24).

In Woods Richardson’s one outing against the Jays last season, Guerrero was the one who did most of the damage, posting four hits in five plate appearances, breezing past this line.

Blue Jays best bets made at 2:42 p.m. ET on 08/27/2025.

Top European soccer picks and predictions: Best bets for EPL, La Liga, Serie A this weekend

European soccer is back in full swing with the EPL, La Liga and Serie A all in action this weekend.

The pre-weekend narrative: Tottenham looks like a serious contender to make noise at the top of the Premier League table. The undefeated Hotspur host Bournemouth on Saturday. On Sunday, Inter Milan looks to build on a dominant start while taking on Udinese.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer predictions for games beginning on Aug. 30, 2025, featuring a pick on Real Madrid vs. Mallorca.

Soccer predictions

Tottenham vs. Bournemouth (Aug. 30, 10 a.m. ET)

Best bet: Tottenham to win (-134)

The Hotspur have been thriving so far under new manager Thomas Frank. Fans have boasted about the new tactics and rightfully so. Tottenham is 2-0 with two clean sheets.

One of the wins was over Manchester City, 2-0, and the side sits at a +5 goal differential It’s a very impressive start that I don’t see slowing down at home against Bournemouth.

The away side has a 1-1 record with the win coming against 0-2 Wolverhampton. Even then, Bournemouth scraped by with a one-goal win despite the Wolves going down to 10 men early in the second half.

The club’s also seen the lowest of lows. On Matchday 1, the Cherries were blown out at home, 4-0, by Man City.

This feels like a battle between teams on different tiers. Tottenham should control this match at home.

Key stat: Through two matches, the Hotspur have the highest average match rating in the EPL, per Fotmob (7.35).

Full EPL betting markets

La Liga best bet

Matchup: Real Madrid vs. Mallorca (Aug. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Read Madrid over 2.5 goals (-112): Bernabeu Stadium will be rocking this weekend with Los Blancos returning home after a 3-0 road win.

Madrid has yet to concede this season, but I want to tap into that offensive potential we saw on Matchday 2.

The side had 26 shot attempts (10 on target) against Oviedo. Kylian Mbappe led the way, scoring a brace.

Mallorca played a top-tier opponent in Barcelona already this season and got stifled 3-0. It had the benefit of playing at home for that game, which won’t be the case on Saturday.

Despite scoring four goals through two matches, Madrid has actually left production on the table, missing three big chances (tied for third most in La Liga).

Bet on La Liga soccer

Serie A prediction

Matchup: Inter Milan vs. Udinese (Aug. 31, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Inter Milan halftime/fulltime (-112): Milan looked dominant in its Serie A debut, battering Torino 5-0 last Sunday.

Just take a look at its offensive stats from the match:

Six big chances.
Nine shots on target.
Led Serie A with nine takeaways in the opposing third.

Inter may now have an elite offence to match its stonewall defence.

Udinese tied its first match at home against Verona, a team that finished six points above a relegation spot last season.

Because of that, I expect Nerazzurri to be the better side, grab an early lead, and never look back.

Bet on Serie A soccer

Soccer predictions made at 1:30 p.m. on 08/27/25.

US Open second-round picks and predictions Aug. 28: Best bets on Safiullin vs. Auger-Aliassime, Sinner vs. Popyrin

The second round at the U.S. Open continues Thursday with plenty of star power in action.

The pregame narrative: World No. 1 Jannik Sinner continues his historic season as he takes on Australian Alexei Popyrin. There’s also Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, who plays his second-round matchup against Roman Safiullin.

Check out my top US Open predictions for Aug. 28, including a pick on Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniel Altmaier.

US Open predictions: Aug. 28

Best Bet: Sinner/Popyrin under 30.5 games (-103)

When Sinner plays, it’s become about finding the best value on the Italian — and I think this is it.

He unsurprisingly dominated his first-round matchup, losing just four games over the three sets.

I would name that opponent, but it doesn’t really matter at this point as long as it’s not Carlos Alcaraz.

In matches against anyone but Alcaraz, Sinner is 31-1 this season, winning 28 of them in straight sets.

On hard courts, he has won 34 of 37 sets in 2025.

It’s hard to keep pace with Sinner, and I don’t think Popyrin has what it takes right now.

The 26-year-old is having a tough season, holding a 17-19 record (7-9 on hard courts). That’s not the level to be playing at when challenging a guy who’s 43-6 on the playing surface since the start of 2024.

Key stat: Sinner is on a 50-match winning streak on hard courts against players outside of the top 20.

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Full tennis betting markets

US Open best bet: Safiullin vs. Auger-Alassime

Auger-Aliassime -4.5 games (-122): I like the value here backing the Canadian to pick up a comfortable win.

Auger-Aliassime looks to be finding his form again. He’s 4-1 in his past five, with all the wins coming in straight sets.

The loss was against Sinner, which doesn’t affect his stock.

His opponent, Safuillin, has a 13-19 record in 2025, with a 9-11 record on hard courts.

In the first round, Safuillin needed all five sets to best a rapidly declining 38-year-old Gael Monfils. Before that, he lost three of four matches, all contested on a hard court.

Meanwhile, Auger-Aliassime covered this spread in his first match, beating Billy Harris, who at least had a decent 21-17 record on hard courts in 2025.

With how Safiullin has been playing, this is arguably a step down in competition, and the Canadian should continue rolling.

Best bet: Tsitsipas vs. Altmaier

Tsitsipas -2.5 sets (+190): Let’s end these picks off with a nice plus-money pick.

Altmaier is coming off a gruelling five-set match with Hamad Medjedovic, which lasted just under five hours.

The German wasn’t in the best form entering the U.S. Open, losing seven of his previous nine matches before his first-round win.

Tsitsipas lost his first set in his match against Alexandre Muller, but looked sharp in winning 19 of the last 26 games for the win.

Tsitsipas wasn’t playing the best before that, so it’s encouraging to see a rather dominant victory against a top-40 opponent.

Tsitsipas has always been a strong player on hard courts. He is 192-104 in his career and has never finished with a losing record on the surface over a full season.

Altmaier (No. 56) ranks worse than Tsitsipas’ first-round opponent, so I think it’s worth a shot on the Greek star to build on his momentum in dominant fashion.

US Open predictions made at 11:11 a.m. on 08/27/2025.