Spencer Closs

Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.

NFL Week 1 TD picks and predictions: Take Bigsby, Daniels and Chubb to find the end zone

NFL TD picks

NFL Week 1 is here and what better way to celebrate than to take a look at a trio of TD scorers for Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: During the early slate, Tank Bigsby benefits by playing one of 2024’s worst defensive teams. Later on, Nick Chubb looks to find the endzone in his first game with the Houston Texans.

Check out my top Week 1 NFL TD picks, featuring a prediction on Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.

NFL TD picks: Week 1

Best bet: Chubb anytime TD (+137)

Chubb had to rejoin the Cleveland Browns midway through last season, and his stats tell us he lost some explosiveness.

  • He averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns in eight games.

But after two different leg injuries, I have a good feeling he should be better after a full offseason and training camp to prepare.

This isn’t just any running back, as Chubb was arguably the best in the league for years before his injury. Before 2024, he averaged over 5.0 YPC in every season.

If he regained even some of that explosiveness, he could quickly outplay the $2.5 million contract he signed with Houston.

I don’t expect Chubb to be a bellcow in Joe Mixon’s absence, but the Texans should be giddy to use him inside the red zone.

Even in his down season, Chubb scored on three of his five carries inside five yards for the Browns.

Houston’s offence is a major upgrade, and I’m sure DeMeco Ryans will turn to Chubb if given the chance near the goal line.

Key stat: Chubb scored 56 TDs in 85 games during his seven seasons with Cleveland.

Best NFL picks

Bigsby anytime TD (+115): I love the value here on who I expect to be the Jacksonville Jaguars’ short-yardage back.

Bigbsy improved tremendously in his sophomore season.

  • 2023-24: 2.6 YPC, two TDs
  • 2024-25: 4.6 YPC, seven TDs

Part of that is due to his improvement in the red zone. As he rookie, he turned just 6.6% of his red zone touches into scores. As a sophomore, he upped that to 26.3%.

In Week 1, the Jaguars play the Carolina Panthers, and they were pitiful at stopping the run last season.

They allowed the most YPC (5.2) and tied for the second most rushing TDs allowed (24).

Last season, Bigsby recorded 3.74 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked third in the NFL among running backs with at least 60 carries.

NFL touchdown scorer prediction

Daniels anytime TD (+130): We saw the effects of a mobile QB when Jalen Hurts scored two rushing TDs on Thursday Night Football.

And Daniels is one of the few others who can move like Hurts. The Commanders’ QB ran for 891 yards last season and added six scores.

With the departure of Brian Robinson Jr., I can’t help but think Washington will draw up even more plays for Daniels in the red zone.

Austin Ekeler is set to begin the season as the starting running back, and he’s far from a power runner. In 77 attempts last season, the veteran back had just four TDs and three fumbles.

For reference, Derrick Henry had the same number of fumbles on 235 carries.

That isn’t something any coach can rely on when trying to run inside the tackles.

The New York Giants had a below-average run defence last season, allowing 4.5 YPC as a unit.

NFL TD picks made at 4:01 p.m. ET on 09/05/2025.

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova US Open women’s final odds and best bet: Back the underdog to be competitve against world No. 1

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova odds

Aryna Sabalenka looks to repeat as U.S. Open champion against No. 9-ranked Amanda Anisimova.

The pre-match narrative: Sabalenka won last season but faces a new foe in her title defence. Anisimova should give her a challenge as the two meet for the 10th time in their careers. Despite being lower-ranked, Anisimova has been successful in this matchup in the past.

Check out our Sabalenka vs. Anisimova odds and my best bet for the Sept. 6 tennis match.

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova odds

Full U.S. Open betting markets

Best US Open women’s tennis pick

Best Bet: Anisimova over 11.5 games won (-125)

I thought about backing Anisimova to win at +185, but opted to go a little safer and take something that can cash even in a loss.

The head-to-head history falls on the side of the American, who is 6-3 in her career against Sabalenka.

Anisimova most recently beat the world No. 1 at Wimbledon earlier in the summer.

That match was contested on grass, but it’s good to know that she holds the advantage on outdoor hardcourts too, winning two of three matches on the surface.

Anisimova has been rolling at the U.S. Open, beating No. 2-ranked Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinal before knocking off a red-hot Naomi Osaka to reach the final.

Sabalenka is the best in the world for a reason, and she’s only dropped one set at this event.

But it was against her only top-25-ranked opponent at Flushing Meadows, No. 4 Jessica Pegula, in Thursday’s semifinal. Pegula won 13 games in the loss.

So, I’ll back Anisimova to be competitive against an opponent she’s had the upper hand on throughout her career.

Key stat: The American has converted 44.1% of her breakpoint opportunities in 2025, which should help her steal games from Sabalenka.

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova best bet made at 3:57 p.m. on 09/05/2025.

Lions vs. Packers Week 1 SGP predictions: Back Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs at +310

Lions vs. Packers predictions

Two division rivals start the season with an electric Week 1 matchup.

The pregame narrative: The Detroit Lions won the NFC North for a second straight time in 2024, recording a franchise record 15 wins in the process. Despite that, it’s the Green Bay Packers that are favoured to win this Week 1 clash.

Check out my Lions vs. Packers +310 same-game parlay predictions for Week 1, featuring prop bets on Josh Jacobs and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Lions vs. Packers SGP predictions

SGP: Over 41.5 points | Jacobs anytime TD | Gibbs over 92.5 rushing/receiving yards (+310)

Over 41.5 points (-220): I don’t think it should take much to sell the over on a teased-down total between two high-powered offences.

  • If we go back to last season, Detroit led the NFL in scoring (33.1 PPG). For reference, the Buffalo Bills ranked second, scoring 30.6.
  • The Lions will have a new offensive coordinator in John Morton, but he should be familiar with the offence after helping build it as a senior offensive assistant in 2022.
  • Green Bay had the eighth-best offence (26.1 PPG) and added wide receiver Matthew Golden in the first round.

There is just too much firepower in this game for me to even consider taking an under.

In four games against each other since the start of the 2023 season, this over is 3-1 with an average of 52.0 points per game.

Embed: #117589

Friday night SGP picks

Jacobs anytime TD (-167): Jacobs overcame a slow start to become one of the NFL’s premium TD scorers last season.

  • First seven games: Two TDs.
  • Final 10 games: 14 TDs, 9-1 on this wager.

In Week 14, he had a three-touchdown performance against the Lions on 18 rushing attempts.

Green Bay loves to turn to Jacobs near the end zone. I can’t see that changing in his second year with the Packers.

Jacobs led the NFL in rush attempts (40) and TDs (14) inside the opponent’s 10-yard line last season.

Gibbs over 92.5 rushing/receiving yards (-113): This may seem like an outrageous line, but it actually falls shy of Gibbs’ 2024 averages.

  • The 23-year-old went off as a sophomore, recording 1,929 yards from scrimmage.
  • In 17 games, that’s an average of 113.5 per game, over 20 more than what is needed for this leg to cash on Sunday.

He added 68 carries in his second pro season and should be expected to take on an even larger role in year three.

Gibbs finished last year on an even higher note, running for 100+ yards in each of his final three games of the regular season.

In those contests, the dynamic tailback averaged 162.3 rushing/receiving yards.

Lions vs. Packers predictions made at 2:57 p.m. on 09/05/2025.

NFL Week 1 TD picks and predictions: Take Bigsby, Daniels and Chubb to find the end zone

NFL TD picks

NFL Week 1 is here and what better way to celebrate than to take a look at a trio of TD scorers for Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: During the early slate, Tank Bigsby benefits by playing one of 2024’s worst defensive teams. Later on, Nick Chubb looks to find the endzone in his first game with the Houston Texans.

Check out my top Week 1 NFL TD picks, featuring a prediction on Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.

NFL TD picks: Week 1

Best bet: Chubb anytime TD (+155)

Chubb had to rejoin the Cleveland Browns midway through last season, and his stats tell us he lost some explosiveness.

  • He averaged 3.3 yards per carry and scored four touchdowns in eight games.

But after two different leg injuries, I have a good feeling he should be better after a full offseason and training camp to prepare.

This isn’t just any running back, as Chubb was arguably the best in the league for years before his injury. Before 2024, he averaged over 5.0 YPC in every season.

If he regained even some of that explosiveness, he could quickly outplay the $2.5 million contract he signed with Houston.

I don’t expect Chubb to be a bellcow in Joe Mixon’s absence, but the Texans should be giddy to use him inside the red zone.

Even in his down season, Chubb scored on three of his five carries inside five yards for the Browns.

Houston’s offence is a major upgrade, and I’m sure DeMeco Ryans will turn to Chubb if given the chance near the goal line.

Key stat: Chubb scored 56 TDs in 85 games during his seven seasons with Cleveland.

Best NFL picks

Bigsby anytime TD (+143): I love the value here on who I expect to be the Jacksonville Jaguars’ short-yardage back.

Bigbsy improved tremendously in his sophomore season.

  • 2023-24: 2.6 YPC, two TDs
  • 2024-25: 4.6 YPC, seven TDs

Part of that is due to his improvement in the red zone. As he rookie, he turned just 6.6% of his red zone touches into scores. As a sophomore, he upped that to 26.3%.

In Week 1, the Jaguars play the Carolina Panthers, and they were pitiful at stopping the run last season.

They allowed the most YPC (5.2) and tied for the second most rushing TDs allowed (24).

Last season, Bigsby recorded 3.74 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked third in the NFL among running backs with at least 60 carries.

NFL touchdown scorer prediction

Daniels anytime TD (+143): We saw the effects of a mobile QB when Jalen Hurts scored two rushing TDs on Thursday Night Football.

And Daniels is one of the few others who can move like Hurts. The Commanders’ QB ran for 891 yards last season and added six scores.

With the departure of Brian Robinson Jr., I can’t help but think Washington will draw up even more plays for Daniels in the red zone.

Austin Ekeler is set to begin the season as the starting running back, and he’s far from a power runner. In 77 attempts last season, the veteran back had just four TDs and three fumbles.

For reference, Derrick Henry had the same number of fumbles on 235 carries.

That isn’t something any coach can rely on when trying to run inside the tackles.

The New York Giants had a below-average run defence last season, allowing 4.5 YPC as a unit.

NFL TD picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 09/05/2025.

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova US Open women’s final odds and best bet: Back the underdog to be competitve against world No. 1

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova odds

Aryna Sabalenka looks to repeat as U.S. Open champion against No. 9-ranked Amanda Anisimova.

The pre-match narrative: Sabalenka won last season but faces a new foe in her title defence. Anisimova should give her a challenge as the two meet for the 10th time in their careers. Despite being lower-ranked, Anisimova has been successful in this matchup in the past.

Check out our Sabalenka vs. Anisimova odds and my best bet for the Sept. 6 tennis match.

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova odds

Embed: #117581

Full U.S. Open betting markets

Best US Open women’s tennis pick

Best Bet: Anisimova over 11.5 games won (-113)

I thought about backing Anisimova to win at +185, but opted to go a little safer and take something that can cash even in a loss.

The head-to-head history falls on the side of the American, who is 6-3 in her career against Sabalenka.

Anisimova most recently beat the world No. 1 at Wimbledon earlier in the summer.

That match was contested on grass, but it’s good to know that she holds the advantage on outdoor hardcourts too, winning two of three matches on the surface.

Anisimova has been rolling at the U.S. Open, beating No. 2-ranked Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinal before knocking off a red-hot Naomi Osaka to reach the final.

Sabalenka is the best in the world for a reason, and she’s only dropped one set at this event.

But it was against her only top-25-ranked opponent at Flushing Meadows, No. 4 Jessica Pegula, in Thursday’s semifinal. Pegula won 13 games in the loss.

So, I’ll back Anisimova to be competitive against an opponent she’s had the upper hand on throughout her career.

Key stat: The American has converted 44.1% of her breakpoint opportunities in 2025, which should help her steal games from Sabalenka.

Sabalenka vs. Anisimova best bet made at 2:30 p.m. on 09/05/2025.

FIFA World Cup European qualifier predictions Sept. 7: Soccer picks for Turkey vs. Spain, Netherlands vs. Lithuania

World Cup qualifier predictions

The FIFA World Cup qualifiers continue this weekend with European nations owning the spotlight.

The pregame narrative: Reigning European champion Spain looks to claim the top spot in Group B when it faces Turkey on Sunday. Earlier in the day, the Netherlands should get its offence going against Lithuania.

Check out my FIFA World Cup qualifier predictions for the European soccer matches on Sept. 7, 2025.

World Cup qualifier predictions

Turkey/Spain over 2.5 goals (-134): This is arguably the most exciting match of the weekend, with both Spain and Turkey hoping for a strong showing at the World Cup next summer.

Turkey started its journey in Group B with a 3-2 win over Georgia on Thursday. Scoring in bunches isn’t off-brand for the nation, as it scored two or more goals in four of its past five matches.

The Turkish side also conceded in four of those contests, and the over on this total is 4-1 during that time.

A high pace should be welcomed by an attacking group like Spain. La Roja beat Bulgaria 3-0 in its opening match.

When Spain won the Euros last summer, the side led the competition with 13.0 xG. That was over three more than Germany, which scored the second most with 9.8, per Fotmob.

Key stat: Eight straight Spain matches have gone over this total. In those games, an average of 4.9 goals were scored.

European soccer betting markets

European soccer picks

Netherlands team total over 2.5 (-136): The Netherlands is another team that I expect to showcase its offensive prowess this weekend.

The Dutch have the benefit of playing Lithuania this weekend, which has been one of the worst soccer nations in Europe recently.

  • The club has gone 12 matches straight without a win. That includes losing twice to Cyprus and twice to Kosovo.
  • Lithuania tied Malta 1-1 on Thursday, and the Netherlands beat Malta 8-0 on June 10.
  • The Netherlands has scored at least two goals in five of its past seven games. That includes drawing Spain 3-3 in the Nations League quarterfinal back in March.

Now, the side will need three on Saturday to cash this wager, but I don’t think that’s a lot to ask against a club of Lithuania’s quality.

Lithuania has played just once against a top-25-ranked nation (No. 21 Denmark) in 2025 and lost that contest, 5-0. The Dutch rank 14 spots higher at No. 7.

World Cup qualifier predictions made at 9:16 a.m. on 09/05/2025.

Best WNBA props Sept. 5: Back Nneka Ogwumike in Seattle’s playoff push

WNBA prop bets

Two playoff spots are up for grabs in the WNBA, with three teams in the hunt playing on Friday.

The latest: Dearica Hamby and the Los Angeles Sparks will likely need to win out as they play the East-leading Atlanta Dream. Later on, the Seattle Storm look to clinch their spot in the postseason with a win over the New York Liberty.

Check out the best WNBA prop bets for Sept. 5, featuring picks on Hamby, Nneka Ogwumike and Natasha Cloud.

WNBA prop bets

Best bet: Hamby over 17.5 points (-107)

In the Sparks’ pursuit of a playoff spot, Hamby has been playing lights out.

  • She’s averaging 20.3 points over her last 10 games on 59.9% shooting from the field.
  • Hamby is 8-2 against this line during that time and scored 20+ seven times.

She’s uber efficient, rarely shooting under 50% for a game, which gives us a very high floor to work with.

It also helps that Los Angeles plays at a fast pace and scores the second-most points per game in the WNBA (85.8).

Key stat: In two games vs. Atlanta this season, Hamby is averaging 24.5 points on 62.5% shooting.

Full WNBA betting markets

Best WNBA picks

Ogwumike over 17.5 points (-125): Here’s another forward who’s incredibly efficient.

  • For the season, Ogwumike is averaging 18.3 points on 51.8% from the field (37.6% from 3).
  • She’s been shooting even better over the last eight games (51.6% from the field, 47.7% from 3 and 94.1% from the free-throw line).

In those eight games, she went 5-3 against this line but played less than 30 minutes each time she went under.

She should be playing a full workload tonight with the Storm having a chance to clinch one of the two remaining playoff spots.

Plus, Ogwumike has owned the Liberty this season, averaging 20.5 points on 63.3% shooting across two contests.

Cloud over 9.5 points (-113): On the other side, Cloud has been asked to take on a bigger role while Sabrina Ionescu recovers from a toe injury.

Not that she needs it to clear this modest total. Cloud is 18-6 against this wager over her past 24 games,

But it’s clear she’s being depended on more than usual right now.

Last time out against the Golden State Valkyries, Cloud attempted 13 shots (seven 3-pointers) and scored 19 points despite the Liberty finishing the game with just 58 total points.

That was New York’s second game without Ionescu. She is considered day-to-day, but I can’t see the Liberty taking any risks with their star since they’ve already guaranteed playoff basketball.

WNBA prop picks made at 9:06 a.m. ET on 09/05/2025.

Romania vs. Canada men’s soccer odds and best bet: Back Les Rouges to get a result in first international friendly

Soccer Betting Canada

Romania and Canada play an international soccer friendly on Friday in preparation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The pregame narrative: Canada will play six matches between now and the end of the year. Les Rouges will match up with Romania first as the European nation preps for its World Cup qualifier coming up on Tuesday.

Check out our Romania vs. Canada odds and my best bet for the men’s soccer match on Sept. 5.

Romania vs. Canada odds

Romania vs. Canada betting markets

Romania vs. Canada marketsBetting odds
Romania to win+130
Draw+225
Canada to win+185
Romania draw no bet-143
Canada draw no bet+105
Over 2.5 goals-118
Under 2.5 goals-112

Romania vs. Canada odds as of 4:54 p.m. ET on 09/04/2025.

Best bet

Canada draw no bet (+115): Canada being a sizeable underdog doesn’t sit right with me.

The loss to Guatemala at the Gold Cup was a sore spot, but we have to take a look at the recent Canadian performances as a whole, and the side has been impressive.

  • Since beating the United States 2-1 on Sept. 7, Canada has won or tied 11 of 12 matches.
  • The one loss came against Mexico, the 13th-ranked nation.
  • In a friendly in the spring, 28th-ranked Canada defeated Ukraine (No. 26) by a score of 4-2. For reference, Romania ranks quite a bit lower at No. 48.

Even in that loss to Guatemala in penalties, this bet was voided since the result after 90 minutes was a draw.

If we look at Romania’s past results, there’s nothing to be inspired by.

In 2025, the Romanians have played four matches and are 2-2. The two wins came against nations ranked outside the top 120 (Cyprus, San Marino), and the two losses were against teams inside the top 100 (Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina).

On the other side, the Canadians have been much better against higher-ranked competitors.

Key stat: Over their past eight matches against top-100 nations, Canada is 6-2-1, meaning this wager has lost just once in those contests.

Romania vs. Canada predictions made at 4:54 p.m. on 09/04/2025.

Romania vs. Canada men’s soccer odds and best bet: Back Les Rouges to get a result in first international friendly

Soccer Betting Canada

Romania and Canada play an international soccer friendly on Friday in preparation for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The pregame narrative: Canada will play six matches between now and the end of the year. Les Rouges will match up with Romania first as the European nation preps for its World Cup qualifier coming up on Tuesday.

Check out our Romania vs. Canada odds and my best bet for the men’s soccer match on Sept. 5.

Romania vs. Canada odds

Romania vs. Canada betting markets

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

Romania vs. Canada marketsBetting odds
Romania to win+135
Draw+255
Canada to win+215
Romania draw no bet-157
Canada draw no bet+115
Over 2.5 goals+100
Under 2.5 goals-122

Romania vs. Canada odds as of 12:22 p.m. ET on 09/04/2025.

Best bet

Canada draw no bet (+115): Canada being a sizeable underdog doesn’t sit right with me.

The loss to Guatemala at the Gold Cup was a sore spot, but we have to take a look at the recent Canadian performances as a whole, and the side has been impressive.

  • Since beating the United States 2-1 on Sept. 7, Canada has won or tied 11 of 12 matches.
  • The one loss came against Mexico, the 13th-ranked nation.
  • In a friendly in the spring, 28th-ranked Canada defeated Ukraine (No. 26) by a score of 4-2. For reference, Romania ranks quite a bit lower at No. 48.

Even in that loss to Guatemala in penalties, this bet was voided since the result after 90 minutes was a draw.

If we look at Romania’s past results, there’s nothing to be inspired by.

In 2025, the Romanians have played four matches and are 2-2. The two wins came against nations ranked outside the top 120 (Cyprus, San Marino), and the two losses were against teams inside the top 100 (Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina).

On the other side, the Canadians have been much better against higher-ranked competitors.

Key stat: Over their past eight matches against top-100 nations, Canada is 6-2-1, meaning this wager has lost just once in those contests.

Romania vs. Canada predictions made at 12:23 p.m. on 09/04/2025.

US Open women’s semifinal picks and predictions: Best bets on Sabalenka vs. Pegula, Osaka vs. Anisimova

US Open picks

The U.S. Open women’s semifinal matches go down Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka’s title defence continues when she plays Jessica Pegula. After that, Naomi Osaka looks to reach her first Grand Slam final since 2021, but first she’ll need to overcome a very tough opponent in Amanda Anisimova.

Check out my top 2025 U.S. Open picks for the women’s semifinal.

US Open picks: Women’s semifinal

Best Bet: Osaka to win (-125)

It’s been quite the career renaissance for Osaka, who’s putting together her best season since being ranked No. 1 back in 2019.

  • Osaka is 32-12 in 2025 (21-6 on hardcourts).
  • She’s been dominant recently, winning 11 of her last 12 matches with nine of those victories coming in straight sets.
  • When she’s at her best, she’s one of the elite players on this surface, demonstrated by her 203-95 career record on hardcourts.

That is much better than Anisimova’s 116-68 hardcourt record (18-7 this season).

It’s still worth noting how well Anisimova is playing, though. She’s lost just one set at the U.S. Open and most recently eliminated Iga Swiatek in straight sets.

But Osaka has notable wins of her own, beating No. 3-ranked Coco Gauff in straight sets before eliminating No. 13 Karolina Muchova in a similar fashion.

Before the U.S. Open, Anisimova lost back-to-back matches convincingly. Meanwhile, Osaka has had one loss since the start of August in a close match against Victoria Mboko in the National Bank Open final.

These two are evenly matched as seen by the pick’em price, but I’ll gladly back Osaka’s momentum and ability on hardcourts.

Key stat: The Japanese star has been extremely good at taking advantage of break opportunities. At the U.S. Open, she has won 81% of her total break points (25-of-31) while Anisimova has converted at a measly 40% (23-of-57).

Full tennis betting markets

US Open best bet

Sabalenka -1.5 sets (-120): This pick feels like a no-brainer. Sabalenka is the best in the world and has an advantageous matchup.

The world No. 1 is the standard for consistency. She’s 54-10 this season, including a 30-5 record on hardcourts.

Pegula is having a great season herself, holding a 42-16 record (27-9 on this playing surface).

But when we look at their head-to-head history, it becomes apparent that Sabalenka is on a different level.

  • Sabalenka has won seven of the nine matches against Pegula in her career.
  • At the 2024 U.S. Open, Sabalenka defeated Pegula in the final in straight sets (7-5, 7-5).
  • Overall, these two have played three times on hardcourts since the start of 2024, and the favourite is 3-0 in those contests without dropping a set.

The reigning champ has cruised through the event so far, winning four matches in straight sets before receiving a walkover in the quarterfinal.

She is well rested and has always had the upper hand on Pegula. I expect a dominant win en route to another Grand Slam final.

Sabalenka has won 15 of the 19 total sets played between these competitors.

US Open picks made at 11:11 a.m. on 09/04/2025.