Spencer Closs

A rising star receiver highlights my best NFL Week 3 prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Rome Odunze is breaking out as a sophomore and has a good chance to go off against the Dallas Cowboys. Elsewhere, I believe Tony Pollard will rumble against the Indianapolis Colts.

Check out my top Week 3 NFL prop bets, featuring a fade on Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins.

NFL prop bets: Week 3

Best bet: Odunze over 4.5 receptions (-124)

The second-year wideout is making his claim as the top wide receiver for the Chicago Bears.

He’s on pace to smash his career highs after struggling to meet expectations in his rookie campaign.

Odunze has certainly built chemistry with Caleb Williams, and Ben Johnson is keen to use his young receiver as much as possible.

• The 23-year-old Odunze has been targeted 20 times by Williams in two games. It’s led to 13 receptions, 165 yards and three touchdowns.

• Odunze leads Chicago’s pass catchers in offensive snaps. He’s played 131 snaps (97%) and run 82 routes.

The top-10 pick from the 2024 draft hasn’t been targeted fewer than nine times in a game. That creates a really solid floor for his production.

The matchup is important, too, and this is a good one for WRs. The Cowboys have the third-worst defensive EPA per dropback, per RBSDM.com.

Key stat: In 2024, Odunze averaged 3.2 receptions per game. He’s upped that number to 6.5 through two weeks, going 2-0 against this line.

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Best NFL picks

Pollard over 84.5 rushing/receiving yards (-114): Pollard started slow in Week 1, but I expect more of what we saw last Sunday.

• Week 1: 18 rushes, 60 yards (3.3 yards per carry)
• Week 2: 20 rushes, 92 yards (4.6 YPC)

Thanks to a 29-yard reception in the first game, the running back is 2-0 on this wager.

There really isn’t much competition in the Tennessee Titans’ backfield, so Pollard is taking on a bell cow role, He played 89% of snaps in both games.

Pollard only has the one reception, but that’s bound to change. He had 41 receptions in 16 games last year.

The Colts’ defence isn’t very good at stopping the run, either. They allow the fourth most YPC in the NFL (5.3).

Judkins under 43.5 rushing yards (-112): I have high hopes for Judkins in his tenure as the RB1 for the Browns.

That said, this fade is all about the matchup.

With Micah Parsons roaming around for the Green Bay Packers, the defence looks generational.

• In Week 1, the dynamic duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery ran for 44 yards on a total of 20 carries.

• In Week 2, Austin Ekeler and Jacory Croskey-Merritt combined for 34 yards on 12 rushes.

It’s worth noting that the Detroit Lions put up 52 points on the Bears after being held to 13 against the Packers.

The Browns (+7.5) are expected to be playing from behind, which would limit the number of attempts Judkins gets.

NFL prop bets made at 8:37 a.m. ET on 09/19/2025.

A pair of All-Pro wide receivers is the focus of my Week 3 touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: Ja’Marr Chase lost his starting quarterback last Sunday, but it doesn’t seem like it’ll have a negative effect on his production. After that, Keenan Allen has value to score in his third straight game for the Los Angeles Chargers.

Check out my top Week 3 NFL TD picks.

NFL TD picks: Week 3

Best bet: Chase anytime TD (+132)

The NFL’s best receiver demands targets no matter who’s throwing him the ball.

Check out his splits with Joe Burrow and Jake Browning in Week 2:

• With Burrow: four receptions (26.4% target share)
• With Browning: 10 receptions (34.4% target share)

Browning isn’t the arm talent Burrow is, and that leads to a lot of short and medium throws, which is the area Chase excels in.

Chase is also a dangerous threat in the red zone. He’s been targeting three times inside 15 yards this season and caught all three passes.

He has just one TD so far, but with that volume, he should easily get that number up closer to the 17 TD passes he caught in 2024.

Only three other players have been targeted three or more times inside 15 yards this season.

That gives me hope for Chase even without Burrow, and this line reflects an injured QB. But Browning is arguably better for the star wideout’s production.

Key stat: Chase led the NFL with 33 red zone targets last season and was one of two players to have 25 or more targets inside 20 yards.

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Best NFL touchdown bets

Allen anytime TD (+230): Allen, unsurprisingly, has fit like a glove rejoining the Chargers’ offence.

Through two games, Allen has 12 receptions for 129 yards and two touchdowns.

More importantly, he’s been targeted by Justin Herbert twice in the red zone and has caught both passes for scores.

What is surprising is that Allen leads the Chargers in targets this season (17) over Ladd McConkey (14), who was thought to be the clear-cut No. 1 option in L.A.

I still think McConkey will finish the season with the better stats, but Allen will play a significant role in this offence, especially near the end zone.

And because of that, I believe there is good value on Allen at +230 when teammates like McConkey (+160) and Quentin Johnston (+225) have shorter odds to score.

The Denver Broncos have a good defence, but just gave up 29 points to Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts on the road.

NFL TD picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET on 09/18/2025.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans meet in the first of two Monday Night Football games.

The pregame narrative: C.J. Stroud and the Texans make their home debut while looking for their first win of the season. On the other side, Tampa Bay aims to improve to 2-0 in the early goings.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions for Week 2 below, featuring Stroud and Mike Evans.

Buccaneers vs. Texans SGP predictions

SGP: Texans ML | Stroud 225+ passing yards | Evans 60+ receiving yards (+300)

Texans ML (-148): Since Stroud arrived in Houston, the Texans have fared much better at home when he starts.

• Home: 11-5
• Away: 8-9

That unsurprisingly has a lot to do with the quarterback’s performance, but more on that later.

Houston dealt with a load of injuries last season, but looks healthy this season, and this is the week I predict we see the offence at full force.

This season, it’s the Bucs with the lengthier injury report as 11 players missed practice at some point this week.

Mix in the travel, and there are some real advantages on the side of the Texans on Monday.

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Monday Night Football SGP picks

Stroud 225+ passing yards (-127): Continuing with the narrative, Stroud has far better career stats at home.

• Home: 27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 281.4 yards per game, 99.0 passer rating.
• Away: 16 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 207.1 yards per game, 86.9 passer rating.

This is his third NFL season, so it’s been long enough that this is a noteworthy trend.

Tampa Bay allowed Michael Penix Jr. to throw for 298 yards last week, and he doesn’t have the arm talent Stroud does.

This should be a performance to remind everyone how dangerous Houston can be.

Stroud went 6-2 against this line at home last season.

Evans 60+ receiving yards (-157): I still think the Bucs can do some damage in this game, and Evans is my top target.

The wide receiver has been a model of consistency. He has 105-plus targets and 1,000-plus yards in each of his 11 NFL seasons.

He fell short of this line in Week 1 with 51 yards, but his underlying stats were encouraging. Evans led Tampa Bay with eight targets and five receptions.

Baker Mayfield only completed 17 passes, though. Last year, he completed 17 or fewer passes just once, so more yards should be expected for the Buccaneers’ receivers.

Buccaneers vs. Texans predictions made at 2:24 p.m. on 09/14/2025.