Spencer Closs

Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.

Tennis predictions for China, Japan Opens Sept. 26: Best bets for Alcaraz vs. Bergs, Sonego vs. Zverev

Tennis predictions

A couple of top players are taking part in two different ATP events on Friday.

The pre-match narrative: World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will be in action and I expect him to have a dominant showing over Zizou Bergs. Another top-five player gets going in Beijing when Alexander Zverev plays Lorenzo Sonego.

Check out my top tennis predictions for the Sept. 26 matches at the China Open and Japan Open.

Tennis predictions: Japan Open, Sept. 26

Best bet: Alcaraz/Bergs under 18.5 games (-117)

This is my way of backing Alacaraz while avoiding his -590 price tag to win in straight sets.

The Spaniard unsurprisingly blew through Sebastian Baez in 18 games in his first match in Tokyo.

He’s now 121-29 in his career, and 24-4 in 2025, on hard courts.

Now he faces a similar level of competition in Bergs, who needed two tiebreakers to squeak past Alejandro Tabilo in the first round.

His 16-14 record on hardcourts is unimpressive, and he’s coming in losing three of his last five matches.

There’s nothing there to make me think this match will be competitive.

Key stat: Alcaraz has an incredible 89% win rate in his service games this season on outdoor hard courts.

Full tennis betting markets

China Open best bet: Sonego vs. Zverev

Under 22.5 games (-125): After playing just two matches in September, Zverev should be well rested ahead of this event.

He gets Sonego in the first round, which is a great matchup to get started.

  • Sonego is 11-12 this season on hard courts and has been below .500 on the surface for six straight seasons.
  • Zverev dominates hard courts, holding a 21-7 record in 2025.
  • Additionally, he’s up big in the head-to-head matchup. He’s beaten Sonego all five times they’ve played while winning 10 of 12 sets.

There’s a lot to like here on the side of Zverev. He should cruise in this match.

Tennis predictions made at 3:51 p.m. on 09/25/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 25: Target Lindor, Lorenzen, Rodriguez on Thursday

MLB prop bets

Two star hitters and one starting pitcher contribute to my MLB prop bets for Thursday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Francisco Lindor is on a bit of a tear right now. He’s batting leadoff for the New York Mets tonight, and they have a good shot to pile up some runs. Elsewhere, look for Julio Rodriguez to have a strong performance against the Colorado Rockies.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 25, featuring a pick on Michael Lorenzen.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lindor to score (-112)

I’m bullish on a few hitters in New York’s lineup. That gives Lindor value to score a run as the leadoff man.

  • Juan Soto is raking right now. He hits second behind Lindor and has a .363 average and 1.250 OPS over his last 24 games.
  • Pete Alonso is an RBI machine. He ranks third in MLB with 123 RBI and has at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games.
  • Lindor benefits the most from Soto and Alonso’s production. Before going hitless yesterday, Lindor was on an 11-game hit streak. He scored 15 times and went 9-2 against this wager.

Shota Imanaga starts for the Chicago Cubs, and he’s been showing cracks recently. He’s allowed three or more earned runs in five straight starts (4.66 ERA).

Also, Imanaga has given up 10 home runs over those starts. The heart of the Mets’ order should see a lot of hittable pitches.

Key stat: Lindor has the fourth-most runs scored in MLB (113).

Best MLB picks

Rodriguez 1+ RBI (+110): With Colorado in town, I wanted to get behind one of Seattle’s bats, and Rodriguez makes a lot of sense.

  • He’s really picked it up in the second half. Since the all-star break, Rodriguez has 18 home runs and 45 RBI. Both of those totals rank inside the top 10.
  • On Wednesday he hit a home run, which is one way to cash this wager without any help.

There should be a lot of action on the bases with Bradley Blalock pitching. The righty has a dreadful 9.16 ERA this year and has allowed five or more runs in five straight starts.

Rodriguez should see opportunities to drive in runs hitting third in the order, and I expect him to take full advantage.

Lorenzen over 15.5 outs (-120): I want to focus on the Los Angeles Angels’ history with Lorenzen.

In total, the current offence is 19-for-75 (.253) with a 25.9% K rate.

Nothing mindblowing, but enough to catch my attention based on this modest line.

When Lorenzen pitched against the Angels earlier in September, he worked 6.0 innings, allowing four hits and two runs.

Overall, he’s started 25 games this season and cleared this line 15 times.

In his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays, Lorenzen went 7.2 innings, giving up three hits and one run.

I believe he can build off that momentum against the Angels, who are significantly worse offensively than the Blue Jays.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 25: Target Lindor, Lorenzen, Rodriguez on Thursday

MLB prop bets

Two star hitters and one starting pitcher contribute to my MLB prop bets for Thursday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Francisco Lindor is on a bit of a tear right now. He’s batting leadoff for the New York Mets tonight, and they have a good shot to pile up some runs. Elsewhere, look for Julio Rodriguez to have a strong performance against the Colorado Rockies.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 25, featuring a pick on Michael Lorenzen.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lindor to score (+108)

I’m bullish on a few hitters in New York’s lineup. That gives Lindor value to score a run as the leadoff man.

  • Juan Soto is raking right now. He hits second behind Lindor and has a .363 average and 1.250 OPS over his last 24 games.
  • Pete Alonso is an RBI machine. He ranks third in MLB with 123 RBI and has at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games.
  • Lindor benefits the most from Soto and Alonso’s production. Before going hitless yesterday, Lindor was on an 11-game hit streak. He scored 15 times and went 9-2 against this wager.

Shota Imanaga starts for the Chicago Cubs, and he’s been showing cracks recently. He’s allowed three or more earned runs in five straight starts (4.66 ERA).

Also, Imanaga has given up 10 home runs over those starts. The heart of the Mets’ order should see a lot of hittable pitches.

Key stat: Lindor has the fourth-most runs scored in MLB (113).

Embed: #118363

Best MLB picks

Rodriguez 1+ RBI (+128): With Colorado in town, I wanted to get behind one of Seattle’s bats, and Rodriguez makes a lot of sense.

  • He’s really picked it up in the second half. Since the all-star break, Rodriguez has 18 home runs and 45 RBI. Both of those totals rank inside the top 10.
  • On Wednesday he hit a home run, which is one way to cash this wager without any help.

There should be a lot of action on the bases with Bradley Blalock pitching. The righty has a dreadful 9.16 ERA this year and has allowed five or more runs in five straight starts.

Rodriguez should see opportunities to drive in runs hitting third in the order, and I expect him to take full advantage.

Lorenzen over 15.5 outs (-120): I want to focus on the Los Angeles Angels’ history with Lorenzen.

In total, the current offence is 19-for-75 (.253) with a 25.9% K rate.

Nothing mindblowing, but enough to catch my attention based on this modest line.

When Lorenzen pitched against the Angels earlier in September, he worked 6.0 innings, allowing four hits and two runs.

Overall, he’s started 25 games this season and cleared this line 15 times.

In his last start against the Toronto Blue Jays, Lorenzen went 7.2 innings, giving up three hits and one run.

I believe he can build off that momentum against the Angels, who are significantly worse offensively than the Blue Jays.

MLB prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

CFL Week 17 predictions, picks and betting odds: Back Saskatchewan ATS, bet the over in Hamilton vs. Winnipeg

CFL Week 17 predictions

The CFL season is now in crunch time as it rolls into Week 17.

This week’s CFL narrative: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Winnipeg Blue Bombers kick off Saturday’s action with an exciting matchup. After that, the Saskatchewan Roughriders look to regain some momentum when they take on the Edmonton Elks.

Check out the latest CFL Week 17 predictions for the games beginning Friday, Sept. 26.

CFL Week 17 predictions

Best bet: Tiger-cats/Blue Bombers over 51.5 points (-110)

Hamilton’s offence is one of the best in the CFL, and certainly the most consistent, scoring 25+ points in 11 of 14 games this season.

When these two met in Week 15, the Tiger-Cats beat the Blue Bombers, 32-21, in a game that just barely sneaked over this total.

But there’s reason to believe there will be more scoring this time around.

  • Hamilton is one of two teams averaging 30+ points per game.
  • Winnipeg allows the fifth-most points (26.4/game) and scores the fifth-most points (25.9/game).
  • The Tiger-Cats have a slightly worse defence, giving this game high offensive potential.

And this line is too modest for this game. Bo Levi Mitchell leads the league with 28 touchdown passes, while Chris Streveler has carved out a role as a dangerous dual-threat quarterback for Winnipeg.

Key stat: Tiger-Cats games have averaged 56.8 total points this season.

Full CFL betting markets

CFL Week 17 picks

Roughriders -4 (-110): The Riders were trending downward, but I think a bye week will do the team wonders ahead of this weekend.

  • Saskatchewan is 2-2 in its last four, losing by multiple TDs to both the Calgary Stampeders and Montreal Alouettes.
  • The Roughriders still hold the best record in the CFL (10-3).
  • They have the second-best defence in the league, but the team allowed 32 points to Calgary and 48 points to Montreal.

That uncharacteristic play makes me believe fatigue was starting to set in. A week off should help with a reset.

And this is a good spot to get right. The Elks are 1-3 in their last four and haven’t had a bye week since mid-July.

Their defence is unreliable, allowing 28+ points in all four of those contests.

While one team is refreshed coming off a bye, the other is at a gruelling part of its schedule with a less talented roster to begin with.

Edmonton’s bye comes next week, so this is a natural letdown spot, but even without that, Saskatchewan is the better football team.

CFL betting odds and matchups: Sept. 26

Stampeders (+180) vs. Alouettes (-223)
Friday, Sept. 26, 6 p.m. CT

  • Calgary is the underdog in this game after losing by 29 to BC a week ago. The Stamps are still in second place in the West but have lost back-to-back games. Montreal is on an opposite trajectory, winning two consecutive on the road behind solid play from backup QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson.

Argonauts (+333) vs. Lions (-450)
Friday, Sept. 26, 9 p.m. CT

  • The Lions are one of the more exciting teams in the CFL with Nathan Rourke at the helm. BC has scored 30 or more points in seven straight games. The downside is that the Lions allow 29.1 points per game, which is the most in the league. The Argonauts are a similarly chaotic team, which explains the monstrous 57.5-point projected total for this game.

CFL Week 17 predictions as of 12:32 p.m. on 09/25/2025.

CFL Week 17 predictions, picks and betting odds: Back Saskatchewan ATS, bet the over in Hamilton vs. Winnipeg

CFL Week 17 predictions

The CFL season is now in crunch time as it rolls into Week 17.

This week’s CFL narrative: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Winnipeg Blue Bombers kick off Saturday’s action with an exciting matchup. After that, the Saskatchewan Roughriders look to regain some momentum when they take on the Edmonton Elks.

Check out the latest CFL Week 17 predictions for the games beginning Friday, Sept. 26.

CFL Week 17 predictions

Best bet: Tiger-cats/Blue Bombers over 52.5 points (-110)

Hamilton’s offence is one of the best in the CFL, and certainly the most consistent, scoring 25+ points in 11 of 14 games this season.

When these two met in Week 15, the Tiger-Cats beat the Blue Bombers, 32-21, in a game that just barely sneaked over this total.

But there’s reason to believe there will be more scoring this time around.

  • Hamilton is one of two teams averaging 30+ points per game.
  • Winnipeg allows the fifth-most points (26.4/game) and scores the fifth-most points (25.9/game).
  • The Tiger-Cats have a slightly worse defence, giving this game high offensive potential.

And this line is too modest for this game. Bo Levi Mitchell leads the league with 28 touchdown passes, while Chris Streveler has carved out a role as a dangerous dual-threat quarterback for Winnipeg.

Key stat: Tiger-Cats games have averaged 56.8 total points this season.

Embed: #118354

Full CFL betting markets

CFL Week 17 picks

Roughriders -4 (-110): The Riders were trending downward, but I think a bye week will do the team wonders ahead of this weekend.

  • Saskatchewan is 2-2 in its last four, losing by multiple TDs to both the Calgary Stampeders and Montreal Alouettes.
  • The Roughriders still hold the best record in the CFL (10-3).
  • They have the second-best defence in the league, but the team allowed 32 points to Calgary and 48 points to Montreal.

That uncharacteristic play makes me believe fatigue was starting to set in. A week off should help with a reset.

And this is a good spot to get right. The Elks are 1-3 in their last four and haven’t had a bye week since mid-July.

Their defence is unreliable, allowing 28+ points in all four of those contests.

While one team is refreshed coming off a bye, the other is at a gruelling part of its schedule with a less talented roster to begin with.

Edmonton’s bye comes next week, so this is a natural letdown spot, but even without that, Saskatchewan is the better football team.

CFL betting odds and matchups: Sept. 26

Stampeders (+165) vs. Alouettes (-205)
Friday, Sept. 26, 7 p.m. ET

  • Calgary is the underdog in this game after losing by 29 to BC a week ago. The Stamps are still in second place in the West but have lost back-to-back games. Montreal is on an opposite trajectory, winning two consecutive on the road behind solid play from backup QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson.

Argonauts (+340) vs. Lions (-455)
Friday, Sept. 26, 10 p.m. ET

  • The Lions are one of the more exciting teams in the CFL with Nathan Rourke at the helm. BC has scored 30 or more points in seven straight games. The downside is that the Lions allow 29.1 points per game, which is the most in the league. The Argonauts are a similarly chaotic team, which explains the monstrous 57.5-point projected total for this game.

CFL Week 17 predictions as of 11:16 a.m. on 09/25/2025.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals TNF Week 4 SGP predictions: Target Smith-Njigba, Benson in +390 wager

Seahawks vs. Cardinals predictions

The new NFL week begins with an NFC West matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals.

The pregame narrative: Every team in the division is above .500, so a win here will be crucial for either side. Despite being on the road, I like Seattle’s chances of emerging from Thursday Night Football with a 3-1 record.

Check out my Seahawks vs. Cardinals same-game parlay predictions for Week 4 below, featuring Trey Benson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals SGP predictions

SGP: Seahawks ML | Benson over 21.5 receiving yards | Smith-Njigba 70+ receiving yards (+390)

Seahawks ML (-115): I looked for every reason to back the home side in this divisional showdown and still came away thinking Seattle wins.

Both teams are 2-1, but the Cardinals have played some pretty bad opponents and don’t have the best underlying stats.

  • Arizona has wins over the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints, but recorded fewer total yards on offence in both games.
  • The Cardinals then had the chance to beat the San Francisco 49ers without Brock Purdy and managed to score 15 points.

Seattle lost to the 49ers with Purdy and then scored 75 points combined over the next two weeks against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Saints.

For context, Arizona has scored 63 points in three games.

Both defences have been above average, but it’s the Seahawks’ offence that looks more reliable. Plus, they dominate this head-to-head matchup regardless of location.

Seattle has won seven straight games vs. Arizona, dating back to 2022.

Embed: #118347

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Benson over 21.5 receiving yards (-112): With James Connor out, Benson should hold an immediate bell cow role in this offence.

He was splitting all the work with Connor before his Week 3 injury, with every carry but one going to the duo.

Emari Demercado will get run, no doubt, but Benson should be out there for 80% or more of the snaps.

He’s a strong pass catcher, generating eight catches on 11 targets through three weeks. So it only makes sense to target him as a receiver in this matchup.

  • Seattle allows the most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (78.0).
  • That’s on the second-most receptions per game (7.3), so the flats are clearly being exposed.

Kyler Murray loves throwing short, and Benson is the clear No. 1 option in the backfield moving forward.

Murray has the fifth-lowest completed air yards per completion this season (2.7).

Smith-Njigba 70+ receiving yards (-190): A complete cleanout at the wide receiver position this offseason opened the door for Smith-Njigba to be a true WR1 in Seattle.

And he hasn’t disappointed. Take a look at his stats so far:

  • 22 receptions (29 targets)
  • 323 receiving yards (107.7/game)
  • 3-0 against this wager

JSN ranks second in the league for receiving yards, and this is far from a tough matchup.

The Cardinals allow the most receptions (16.0) and sixth-most receiving yards per game (164.7) to wide receivers.

Only one other Seattle player has been targeted more than 10 times (Cooper Kupp, 15), so there’s a clear intention to target Smith-Njigba as much as possible.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals predictions made at 2:34 p.m. on 09/24/2025.

Top European soccer picks and predictions: Best bets for Tottenham vs. Wolverhampton, Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid

Soccer predictions

This weekend is full of action from Europe’s top soccer leagues.

The pre-weekend narrative: Tottenham has the chance to stay in the top two of the EPL standings when it hosts Wolverhampton on Saturday. In La Liga, giants clash as Real Madrid visits Atletico Madrid for a marquee matchup.

Check out this weekend’s best European soccer predictions for games beginning on Sept. 27, 2025, featuring a pick on AC Milan vs. Napoli.

Soccer predictions

Tottenham vs. Wolverhampton (Sept. 27, 3 p.m. ET)

Best bet: Tottenham halftime/fulltime (+120)

Tottenham looks like a true contender this season. Now, the side hosts the worst team in the EPL.

  • The Spurs sit in third on the Premier League table with a 3-1-1 record.
  • They have a +7 goal differential with the third-best average match rating (7.04), per Fotmob.com.
  • Wolverhampton is at the other end of the spectrum, with the worst average rating (6.36) and goal differential (-9).

It is the only team without a point in the Premier League standings, and things aren’t looking up on the road against Tottenham.

Unlike last year, it’s been Tottenham’s defence that stands out so far. The Spurs have allowed three goals in five matches.

The offence also ranks in the top four, scoring 2.0 goals per match. That’s a good foundation for a strong home performance.

Key stat: Wolverhampton’s opponents are 4-1 on this wager in the EPL this season.

Full EPL betting markets

La Liga best bet

Matchup: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid (Sept. 21, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Real Madrid to win (+140): Even though Madrid is on the road, there’s strong value here.

Los Blancos have stormed out of the gates, picking up six straight wins with a +11 goal differential.

Atletico’s defence has been solid, but it’s struggled to score goals. The side has a measly six after six matches.

That’s not going to fly against Real Madrid, which has conceded a league-low three goals.

Xabi Alonso’s team is 3-0-0 on the road with nine goals scored.

I feel good backing Madrid going into Metropolitano Stadium and securing three points to stay perfect on the year.

Bet on La Liga soccer

Serie A prediction

Matchup: AC Milan vs. Napoli (Sept. 28, 2:45 p.m. ET)

AC Milan to win (+145): I faded Milan last week, and it was a mistake. It had no problem beating Udinese on the road.

The 3-0 thrashing was Udinese’s first loss in Serie A this season, and I expect Milan to take another zero this weekend.

  • Milan started the season with a loss but has picked up three straight Serie A wins since. The side has seven goals during that time and has held clean sheets in every match.
  • Massimiliano Allegri’s group then beat Serie A side Lecce, 3-0, in Coppa Italia on Sept. 23.

It’s really hard to bet against a team riding that high.

Napoli is 4-0-0, but is showing cracks.

It lost 2-0 to Manchester City in the Champions League and barely scraped by second last place Pisa, 3-2, at home. Both those matches were within the past six days.

Milan carries the momentum right now and carries the crucial advantage of playing at home.

Bet on Serie A soccer

Soccer predictions made at 1:45 p.m. on 09/24/25.

MLB home run picks Sept. 24: Back Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson to go deep

MLB home run picks

Top slugger Juan Soto highlights Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Soto isn’t having the season most expected, but he’s still been elite, especially recently, and can hit for power. Before that, I’m making a bold prediction on Gunnar Henderson breaking his home run drought.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 24.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Soto to hit a home run (+400)

There is a significant amount of value in backing Soto here for several reasons.

  • Despite batting a below-standard .267 this season, Soto still ranks seventh in MLB with 42 home runs.
  • Plus, he’s seen an uptick in production lately, hitting 10 home runs in his last 23 games.
  • That equates to an incredible 1.248 OPS during that time (.782 SLG).

All of that goes before mentioning the tough skid Chicago Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has been on.

He owns a 5.77 ERA over his past eight starts, allowing seven home runs in the process.

Soto is 1-for-7 in his career off Boyd, but the good news is that one hit left the park for a home run.

Key stat: The New York Mets slugger has a 99th-percentile xSLG (.629), per Baseball Savant.

Best HR predictions

Henderson to hit a home run (+400): Let’s get the ugly out of the way first.

Henderson hasn’t hit a home run in 26 straight games. But there’s solid reason to believe he snaps the skid tonight.

  • The slugging shortstop has seen Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz in a limited fashion, but he’s been successful. He has two hits in three at-bats with a home run.
  • Baz is prone to getting hit hard. His 1.44 HR/9 is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers.

Henderson has a .351 average over the past 10 games. He hasn’t been hitting for power, but has a good shot to flip the script on Wednesday.

MLB home run picks made at 2:28 p.m. ET on 09/24/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 24: Back Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson to go deep

MLB home run picks

Top slugger Juan Soto highlights Wednesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Soto isn’t having the season most expected, but he’s still been elite, especially recently, and can hit for power. Before that, I’m making a bold prediction on Gunnar Henderson breaking his home run drought.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 24.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Soto to hit a home run (+460)

There is a significant amount of value in backing Soto here for several reasons.

  • Despite batting a below-standard .267 this season, Soto still ranks seventh in MLB with 42 home runs.
  • Plus, he’s seen an uptick in production lately, hitting 10 home runs in his last 23 games.
  • That equates to an incredible 1.248 OPS during that time (.782 SLG).

All of that goes before mentioning the tough skid Chicago Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has been on.

He owns a 5.77 ERA over his past eight starts, allowing seven home runs in the process.

Soto is 1-for-7 in his career off Boyd, but the good news is that one hit left the park for a home run.

Key stat: The New York Mets slugger has a 99th-percentile xSLG (.629), per Baseball Savant.

Embed: #118338

Best HR predictions

Henderson to hit a home run (+450): Let’s get the ugly out of the way first.

Henderson hasn’t hit a home run in 26 straight games. But there’s solid reason to believe he snaps the skid tonight.

  • The slugging shortstop has seen Tampa Bay Rays starter Shane Baz in a limited fashion, but he’s been successful. He has two hits in three at-bats with a home run.
  • Baz is prone to getting hit hard. His 1.44 HR/9 is the fourth-highest among qualified pitchers.

Henderson has a .351 average over the past 10 games. He hasn’t been hitting for power, but has a good shot to flip the script on Wednesday.

MLB home run picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 24: Bet on a big performance from Jarren Duran

Blue Jays picks

The Boston Red Sox can earn a big series win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is in desperate need of a victory, only sitting one game clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East. The Jays will look for a big performance behind Max Scherzer, who counters Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 24 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Crochet and Jarren Duran.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (+100)

There’s been some serious concern lately with Scherzer on the mound.

He’s been shelled constantly, allowing 21 earned runs over his last five starts.

  • That was over 20.0 innings, and his last start was disastrous (seven ER, 0.2 IP).
  • Four of those five games went over this total with an average of 12.6 runs scored.

Even if the Jays’ offensive slump continues, I don’t trust Scherzer or the bullpen to keep this game within control.

Corchet also isn’t pitching his best right now. Over his last four starts, he holds a 4.68 ERA (4.99 FIP).

There’s potential for an unexpectedly high-scoring game here, so I’ll buy in on the low total.

Key stat: Seven of Crochet’s last nine starts have gone over 7.5 runs.

Jays prop predictions

Duran over 1.5 total bases (+105): With Scherzer on the mound, I want to take advantage of a hitter on the Red Sox side, and Duran caught my eye.

At plus-money, he provides value in this matchup.

  • He’s just 1-for-3 off Scherzer, but the one hit was a home run.
  • Duran went hitless on Tuesday but had at least a knock in eight of the nine games before.

I believe he has one of the highest offensive floors on the Red Sox on any night, thanks to his raw power and elite speed.

And this is a strong spot for production with Scherzer starting. Duran is hitting leadoff for Boston and should be in line for five or more at-bats.

Crochet under 6.5 Ks (-138): Even if Crochet has a strong outing, this is a tough number to get past against the Jays.

  • Toronto strikes out the second-fewest times per game (6.75).
  • Crochet has finished under this total in both his starts against the Blue Jays this season.

That’s in 12.2 innings pitched over two very solid performances.

This isn’t a fade on Crochet by any means and is solely to do with the matchup at hand.

Toronto has held 19 straight starting pitchers under this number.

Blue Jays picks made at 11:16 a.m. ET on 09/24/2025.