Spencer Closs

The top two ranked players on the ATP Tour are in action early Tuesday morning.

The pre-match narrative: Carlos Alcaraz looks to add another trophy to his cabinet in what has been an incredible season. He’ll need to beat top-five player Taylor Fritz to earn the win in Tokyo. In Beijing, Jannik Sinner and Alex de Minaur compete in an electric semifinal.

Check out my top tennis predictions for the Sept. 30 matches at the China Open and Japan Open.

Tennis predictions: Japan Open, Sept. 30

Best bet: Fritz +1.5 sets (+120)

The American is seasoned on hard courts. He played 40 matches on the surface this year, amassing a 30-10 record.

He most recently played Alcaraz at the Laver Cup on Sept. 20 and won the match triumphantly in straight sets. He also took on the Spaniard at Wimbledon and lost, but still managed to win a set.

Fritz is 8-2 in his last 10 and beat his counterpart less than 10 days ago on a similar playing surface. He deserves consideration as a big underdog here.

Alcaraz has played one top-15 player at this event (Casper Ruud in the semifinal) and needed all three sets to pick up the victory.

The world No. 1 converted just two of his nine break points in that match.

Key stat: Fritz has the better service hold percentage at the Tokyo Open (89%).

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China Open best bet: Sinner vs. de Minaur

Over 19.5 games (-124): There are some real advantages on the side of Sinner, but this line is too low.

• Firstly, the Italian is 10-0 against de Minaur in his career, winning nine of 10 matches in straight sets.

• Sinner’s 21-2 on hard courts this season and nine of those matches played between these two were contested on some variation of a hard court surface.

With all that being said, de Minaur cannot be discredited. He’s No. 8 in the world right now and holds a solid 26-8 record on hard courts.

The Australian has been just as dominant at the China Open and has played an hour less of tennis at this event, which implies a stamina advantage.

This is his preferred playing surface. He should be able to hold enough service points to push this match over this very modest total.

It’s hardly a fade against Sinner, who can still win this match comfortably in two sets. He simply can’t blow his opponent out.

Tennis predictions made at 11:03 a.m. on 09/29/2025.

Several top players take part in the round of 16 on the men’s side of the China Open.

The pre-match narrative: Daniil Medvedev has been free-falling down the rankings as he looks to start a bounce back against a familiar foe in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Before that, Jannik Sinner aims to advance past Terence Atmane in Beijing.

Check out my top men’s China Open predictions for the round of 16, plus a pick for the round of 32 women’s match between Leylah Fernandez and Coco Gauff.

China Open predictions: Round of 16

Best bet: Fokina to win (+102)

Fokina was 0-4 against Medvedev in his career before finally defeating his counterpart last time out.

• The match was last August, and Fokina won in three sets.

• This season, Fokina is the much better player on hard courts, holding a 21-12 record.

• Medvedev has struggled on the playing surface. His 14-11 hardcourt record is part of the reason he’s fallen to No. 18 in the ATP rankings.

Medvedev has always been a reliable player, but this season has been a roller coaster. He’s only made it past the quarterfinal in three of 19 events.

And this has arguably been his worst stretch. He’s 3-5 in his last eight matches without playing any top 30 opponents.

Fokina took some time off after the U.S. Open to recover from an injury, and now looks fresh. He dominated his last match, winning 12 of 16 games against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.

Key stat: Medvedev’s 58.3% win rate on hard courts in 2025 is his worst mark since 2017.

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China Open best bet: Sinner vs. Atmane

Under 19.5 games (-129): Sinner has been historically dominant this season against opponents not named Carlos Alcaraz.

The Italian is on a 56-match winning streak against players outside of the top 20 on hard courts.

In his 19 wins on the playing surface this season, he’s only lost four sets. That gives him an incredibly high floor against lower-ranked opponents.

Atmane is the No. 68-ranked player, and that’s his highest ranking ever.

He was on the best run of his career at the Cincinnati Open in August before running into Sinner in the semifinal.

The Frenchman was able to keep the first set close, losing on a tiebreaker. As Sinner figured out his opponent, he started dominating. He won the second set 6-2.

With that experience against Atmane under his belt, I expect a more conclusive win this time around.

China Open round of 32 pick: Gauff vs. Fernandez

Over 20.5 games (-110): This is my preferred way to back the Canadian to keep this match close.

Fernandez is playing well right now, winning four of her last six matches. Plus, she’s been competitive enough in the two losses to push the total games over this mark.

One of the defeats was against world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. She lost in straight sets, but Sabalenka squeaked out a tiebreaker to close out the match.

Fernandez has her best winning percentage on hard courts, holding a 62.1% win rate.

Gauff is elite, no doubt, but she’s often involved in long matches because of her ability to hold serve.

She wins 68.5% of her service points, which is a tier below other elite players. For example, Sabalenka holds at a 77.7% rate.

Even Fernandez has a better hold rate this season (71.6%). That should help her stay in this match.

China Open predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on 09/26/2025.

The Japan Open has reached the round of 16 and the world’s No. 1-ranked men’s player is in action.

The pre-match narrative: Carlos Alcaraz has taken hold of the top spot in the rankings after an amazing season. He gets a chance to improve his success in Tokyo, but needs to get past Zizou Bergs in their first-ever match.

Check out my top Japan Open predictions for the round of 16, featuring a pick on Brandon Nakashima vs. Marton Fucsovics.

Japan Open predictions: Round of 16

Best bet: Alcaraz/Bergs under 18.5 games (-117)

This is my way of backing Alacaraz while avoiding his -590 price tag to win in straight sets.

The Spaniard unsurprisingly blew through Sebastian Baez in 18 games in his first match in Tokyo.

He’s now 121-29 in his career, and 24-4 in 2025, on hard courts.

Now Alcaraz faces a similar level of competition in Bergs, who needed two tiebreakers to squeak past Alejandro Tabilo in the first round.

Tabilo’s 16-14 record on hardcourts is unimpressive, and he’s coming in losing three of his last five matches.

There’s nothing there to make me think this match will be competitive.

Key stat: Alcaraz has an incredible 89% win rate in his service games this season on outdoor hard courts.

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Japan Open best bet: Nakashima vs. Fucsovics

Fucsovics ML (+104): Fucsovics has the momentum coming into this match.

He’s 40-19 overall this year with an outstanding 18-4 record on hard courts. He needed to qualify for this event, but cruised through both matches, winning every set.

Fucsovics then defeated No. 29-ranked Frances Tiafoe in the round of 32. He hasn’t faced the best competition, but that win over the Frenchman proves he has what it takes to beat quality players.

Nakahsima falls a tier below Tiafoe, ranking 33rd on tour.

• He’s 30-24 this season with a decent 18-12 record on this playing surface.

• He needed all three sets to get past No. 78 Jordan Thompson in the last round.

The American has done enough to stay afloat, but he’s fallen short in big matches.

Additionally, Fucsovics is 1-0 vs. Nakashima in his career. That match was contested on an outdoor hard court, and the Hungarian won in straight sets (6-2, 6-4).

Tennis predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on 09/26/2025.