Spencer Closs

Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.

Steelers vs. Bengals TNF Week 7 SGP predictions: Back DK Metcalf, Joe Flacco at +410

Steelers vs. Bengals predictions

An all-AFC North matchup takes centre stage on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh is the only team with a winning record in the division, sitting firmly at the top at 4-1. In saying that, I believe Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals are live underdogs in this game and will look to back them on an alternate spread.

Check out my Steelers vs. Bengals same-game parlay predictions for Week 7, featuring Flacco and DK Metcalf.

Steelers vs. Bengals SGP predictions

SGP: Bengals +7.5 | Metcalf over 57.5 receiving yards | Flacco 250+ passing yards (+410)

Bengals +7.5 (-177): I believe the Bengals can build off last week’s performance. Yes, they lost by nine, but they were 13.5-point underdogs in that game.

That was also on the road, whereas Thursday’s contest will be played in Cincinnati.

  • The offence has been much better at home, scoring 55 points across two games.
  • Flacco fits this offence better than the alternative, Jake Browning. More on Flacco later, but just know that Browning had a pitiful 6:8 TD-to-INT ratio in his time as the starter.

Flacco, the 18-year vet, is better at getting the ball to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, which is what’s important in this offence.

Neither squad has a particularly good defence, so I have faith the Bengals can score enough to keep the game within a touchdown, if not win straight up.

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Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Metcalf over 57.5 receiving yards (-112): Metcalf has been Aaron Rodgers’ favourite target through six weeks, and there’s an argument to be made that he could be even more productive.

  • He has been targeted 31 times by Rodgers this season but only has 19 receptions.
  • Metcalf is 3-2 against this wager and is coming off back-to-back performances of 90+ yards.

In Week 6, he was targeted a season-high nine times, but that only led to four catches.

The good news is that Metcalf doesn’t need many looks to get past this number. He’s a deep threat in this offence, demonstrated by his career-high 11.5 yards per target.

That all goes before mentioning Cincinnati’s woeful defence. The unit allows the second-most passing yards per game in the NFL (258.5).

This is a great matchup for the Steelers’ offence and Metcalf is the clear-cut WR1 for Rodgers.

Flacco 250+ passing yards (+112): The Steelers haven’t shown an ability to slow down the passing game, either.

  • Pittsburgh concedes the sixth-most passing yards (245.0/game).
  • Three of five starting quarterbacks to face Pittsburgh have thrown for 250+ yards.

The two QBs who fell short (Dillon Gabriel, Justin Fields) are worse arm talents than Flacco.

Fields threw for 218 yards, and Gabriel attempted 52 passes (29 completions) for 221 yards.

Flacco was servicable in his first game with Cincy, throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns (no interceptions).

That was against the Green Bay Packers, who’ve allowed far fewer passing yards (207.2/game) than the Steelers.

The game plan should be clear. Cincy’s weak offensive line hinders the running game, and Pittsburgh struggles to defend the pass.

Steelers vs. Bengals predictions made at 9:23 a.m. on 10/15/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 3 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Toronto to bounce back behind Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays vs, Mariners predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays are in a hole as the ALCS switches homes ahead of Game 3.

The pregame narrative: The Seattle Mariners have brought it to the Blue Jays, outscoring them 13-4 through two games. Toronto is in desperate need of a win behind Shane Bieber while the Mariners counter with George Kirby in hopes of a 3-0 series lead.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 3, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays moneyline | Guerrero to record a hit | Raleigh to record a hit (+380)

Blue Jays moneyline (+112): This is likely the last chance for Toronto to stay in this series, which I’m sure it’s well aware of.

The Blue Jays are top-heavy when it comes to starting pitchers, so who knows what someone like Max Scherzer can do in Game 4.

But what is known is that Bieber is a great pitcher, and he gives Toronto a solid chance to win.

Kirby certainly had the better season of the two starters, but this head-to-head matchup is actually working in Bieber’s favour.

  • Kirby vs. Toronto’s lineup: .281 average (.298 xBA), 16.2% K rate.
  • Bieber vs. Seattle’s lineup: .229 average (.215 xBA), 37.9% K rate.

Both pitchers have 60+ plate appearances to go off of, so this is noteworthy data.

And it shows Bieber’s brilliance against the Mariners in the past. He’s been in enough big games in his career to believe he has what it takes to outduel Kirby on the road.

These are the games that the Jays front office acquired Bieber for, and I have a strong feeling the former Cy Young winner won’t disappoint.

Toronto won five of the seven games Bieber started in the regular season. Additionally, the Jays swept their three-game series in Seattle this year with a run differential of +14.

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MLB SGP legs

Guerrero to record a hit (-245): Guerrero is experiencing a roller coaster in the playoffs.

  • He lit up the Yankees in the ALDS, going 9-for-17 with three homers and no Ks.
  • In the ALCS, he’s 0-for-7 in two games vs. the Mariners with just one walk.

It’s a night-and-day difference, but that isn’t going to deter me from backing Vladdy to show out when his team needs him most.

In three games in Seattle during the regular season, Guerrero went 2-1 against this wager. In the game where he went hitless, he recorded two walks in five at-bats.

The slugging first baseman is 2-for-9 in his career off Kirby, but his .325 xBA indicates some bad ball luck in those meetings.

Including the regular season and the playoffs, Guerrero had a single stretch of three consecutive games without a hit.

Raleigh to record a hit (-165): This price doesn’t make much sense to me, so I’ll gladly include this pick in the SGP.

The switch-hitting catcher is a wagon right now and is worth a look regardless of the pitching matchup.

He’s 2-for-8 against Bieber all-time, but has struck just once, which is promising.

But I can’t stress enough how little that matters to me right now. Monday was the first game this postseason in which Raleigh went without a hit. He still walked twice and scored two runs.

Overall, he’s 6-1 against this line in the playoffs with a whopping .357 average.

If he can’t get a knock off Bieber, there’s always the opportunity to get after the Jays’ shaky bullpen.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 1:35 p.m. on 10/14/2025.

Best NHL anytime goal picks Oct. 14: Back Evgeni Malkin, Jason Robertson to light the lamp

NHL anytime goal picks

The pregame narrative: Jason Robertson has an eye for the goal, and that’s been apparent in the early goings of the new season. Later on, take the value on Evgeni Malkin during his hot streak to begin the campaign.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for Oct. 14.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best bet: Robertson to score (+140)

The value is too good here to pass on.

Robertson has scored in both games so far, and his advanced analytics show that it’s no fluke.

  • The winger leads the NHL with 4.43 xG per 60 minutes, according to MoneyPuck.
  • He ranks second in shots on goal per 60 (20.26), and his -0.8 goals above expected show how his production could be even greater.

Robertson has two 40-goal seasons under his belt at age 26, with his best years still to come.

Everything is pointing to a career year, and that’s saying a lot since he averages over a point per game in the NHL.

In his third game, he gets a go at the Minnesota Wild, who have allowed three or more goals in back-to-back contests.

That includes getting lit up for seven at home by the Columbus Blue Jackets. In that game, another proficient goal scorer, Kirill Marchenko, buried a hat-trick.

Key stat: The Wild allow 30.7 shots per game and kill penalties at a below-average 75% rate.

NHL predictions

Malkin to score a goal (+275): This is definitely a long shot pick, considering the price, but Malkin is worthy of a look with how he’s producing.

  • The 39-year-old has five assists in three games, but he’s still looking for his first goal.
  • All five helpers were the primary assists. It doesn’t help this wager directly, but it helps paint a picture of how much offence Malkin is creating.
  • He plays over three minutes a night on the power play, which increases his chances of finding the back of the net.

And that goes before mentioning the matchup. The Pittsburgh Penguins play the Anaheim Ducks, who will struggle to defend this season.

  • On opening night, they allowed three goals vs. the Seattle Kraken.
  • In their second game, they conceded six in a 7-6 shootout win over the San Jose Sharks.

To make it even worse, the Sharks only needed 23 shots to score that many times.

This is a good spot for the Penguins to have an offensive explosion, and Malkin holds the best value of the bunch.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 11:11 a.m. ET on 10/14/2025.

Best NHL anytime goal picks Oct. 14: Back Evgeni Malkin, Jason Robertson to light the lamp

NHL anytime goal picks

Thursday’s eight-game NHL slate provides plenty of choices for anytime goal scorers.

The pregame narrative: Jason Robertson has an eye for the goal, and that’s been apparent in the early goings of the new season. Later on, take the value on Evgeni Malkin during his hot streak to begin the campaign.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for Oct. 14.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best bet: Robertson to score (+160)

The value is too good here to pass on.

Robertson has scored in both games so far, and his advanced analytics show that it’s no fluke.

  • The winger leads the NHL with 4.43 xG per 60 minutes, according to MoneyPuck.
  • He ranks second in shots on goal per 60 (20.26), and his -0.8 goals above expected show how his production could be even greater.

Robertson has two 40-goal seasons under his belt at age 26, with his best years still to come.

Everything is pointing to a career year, and that’s saying a lot since he averages over a point per game in the NHL.

In his third game, he gets a go at the Minnesota Wild, who have allowed three or more goals in back-to-back contests.

That includes getting lit up for seven at home by the Columbus Blue Jackets. In that game, another proficient goal scorer, Kirill Marchenko, buried a hat-trick.

Key stat: The Wild allow 30.7 shots per game and kill penalties at a below-average 75% rate.

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NHL predictions

Malkin to score a goal (+275): This is definitely a long shot pick, considering the price, but Malkin is worthy of a look with how he’s producing.

  • The 39-year-old has five assists in three games, but he’s still looking for his first goal.
  • All five helpers were the primary assists. It doesn’t help this wager directly, but it helps paint a picture of how much offence Malkin is creating.
  • He plays over three minutes a night on the power play, which increases his chances of finding the back of the net.

And that goes before mentioning the matchup. The Pittsburgh Penguins play the Anaheim Ducks, who will struggle to defend this season.

  • On opening night, they allowed three goals vs. the Seattle Kraken.
  • In their second game, they conceded six in a 7-6 shootout win over the San Jose Sharks.

To make it even worse, the Sharks only needed 23 shots to score that many times.

This is a good spot for the Penguins to have an offensive explosion, and Malkin holds the best value of the bunch.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 11:11 a.m. ET on 10/14/2025.

Steelers vs. Bengals Week 7 Thursday Night Football picks: Take the over, bet on Ja’Marr Chase to shine

Steelers vs. Bengals picks

Two teams on opposite trajectories meet in Week 7’s edition of Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1, sitting firm atop the AFC North standings. They are the only team in the division above .500 and look to build on their great start against the downtrodden Cincinnati Bengals, who are seeking to snap a losing streak.

Check out my Steelers vs. Bengals picks for Oct. 16, featuring a prop bet on Ja’Marr Chase and an over/under pick.

Steelers vs. Bengals picks

Best Bet: Over 43 points (-107)

The Bengals have it rough without Joe Burrow, but it’s clear Joe Flacco works better in this offence than Jake Browning did.

  • Flacco completed 29 passes for 219 yards in his debut, recording two touchdowns and no interceptions.
  • In Browning’s time as the starter, he threw six TD passes and turned the ball over eight times.
  • Browning also managed a measly 189.3 passing yards per game.

The Green Bay Packers have a very tough defence, so it feels like that was the floor for a Flacco-led offence.

This week’s opponent, the Steelers, ranks in the bottom half for rushing yards allowed, while conceding the sixth most passing yards per game (245.0).

Chase leads a top-tier offensive skill group with the likes of Tee Higgins and Chase Brown in the mix as well.

On the other side, Aaron Rodgers has been cooking with his new team. He has a 105.4 passer rating with 10 TD passes.

The Steelers average 23.8 points on offence and should take advantage of a poor Bengals defence.

Key stat: Cincy gives up the second most yards (403.8) and the third most points (30.5) per game while allowing the opposition to convert 45.9% of third downs.

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Thursday Night Football prop pick

Chase over 6.5 receptions (-122): The reason Flacco had some success in this offence was simple – he threw the ball to Chase … a lot.

The wideout was targeted 12 times by Flacco against the Packers, leading to 10 receptions for 94 yards and a score.

Even with poor QB play, Chase still averages 7.0 receptions a game on 9.5 targets.

His 57 targets lead the Bengals, and Higgins is the only other player with over 20 targets (37).

It’s obvious the offence runs through Chase, and most teams can’t do anything to stop him. He just needed a competent QB to throw him the ball.

As mentioned before, the Steelers allow the sixth-most receiving yards per game. This is an easier matchup than last week, meaning Chase should see double-digit targets again, giving this pick a high floor.

Steelers vs. Bengals picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 10/14/2025.

NFL Week 7 schedule, odds and betting lines: Matchups and storylines

NFL Week 7 schedule

There are a number of electric matchups scheduled for Week 7 of the NFL season.

The latest: The Carolina Panthers are making waves and have a .500 record heading into a new week. On Monday, fans could be in store for a shootout between the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams can score points in bunches, so, unsurprisingly, the game has a whopping 53.5 set point total.

Check out the latest NFL Week 7 schedule below.

NFL Week 7 schedule notes

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  • The Rams and Jaguars will partake in the next installment of the NFL international series in London. Jacksonville lost in Week 6 to the Seahawks but is still an impressive 4-2 on the season. L.A. is 4-2 as well, but can’t be satisfied after scoring just 17 points against the Ravens without Lamar Jackson.
  • What’s going on in Philadelphia? The Eagles started 4-0 before losing back-to-back games. Most recently, Jaxson Dart and the Giants smashed Philly, 34-17, as a sizeable underdog. The offence is stale, ranking in the bottom half, scoring 23.7 points per game. The Eagles will face a Minnesota Vikings squad fresh off their bye week.
  • The Panthers have won two straight and now get the 0-6 Jets. Carolina has scored 57 points over the past two weeks, and Bryce Young is already up to 11 passing touchdowns. It may not seem like a lot, but it shows improvement since the former No. 1 pick had just 26 TD passes total in his first two NFL seasons.
  • Watch out for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and his squad have won three of the past four, and he’ll get his best WR back this week. Rashee Rice served his six-game suspension and will be eligible to return. The wideout had 288 yards and two scores in four games last year before his season-ending injury. They host the Raiders in an AFC West matchup.
  • Fans have another Monday Night Football doubleheader to look forward to in Week 7. The action will start with the 5-1 Buccaneers visiting the Lions in a game where a lot of points are expected. After that, the Seahawks are 2.5-point favourites over the Houston Texans coming off their bye.

NFL Week 7 matchups: Thursday night and Sunday morning

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate

New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans

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New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

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Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns

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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Sunday’s 4 p.m. slate

New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

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Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals

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Sunday & Monday Night Football matchups

Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

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Houston Texans vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Bills vs. Falcons MNF Week 6 SGP predictions: Back Drake London, James Cook in +340 wager

Bills vs. Falcons predictions

The Monday Night Football doubleheader opens with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Atlanta Falcons.

The pregame narrative: The Bills are coming off their first loss of the year, while Atlanta is fresh off its bye week. Buffalo is expected to bounce back as a 4-point favourite, but I believe the Falcons can keep this game close or even win straight up.

Check out my Bills vs. Falcons same-game parlay predictions for Week 6, featuring Drake London and James Cook.

Bills vs. Falcons SGP predictions

SGP: Falcons +7.5 | London 6+ receptions | Cook anytime TD (+340)

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Falcons +7.5 (-205): Atlanta’s 30-0 loss against the Carolina Panthers in Week 3 stands out like a sore thumb.

Other than that, the squad has looked competitive in every game to begin the season.

  • In Week 1, the Falcons lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 23-20. Tampa looks like a contender at 4-1.
  • In Week 2, Atlanta bounced back to trounce the Minnesota Vikings, 22-6.
  • Before the bye, the Falcons scored a season-high 34 points in a seven-point win over the Washington Commanders.

That makes them 3-1 against this spread, so I’m willing to chalk up that Panthers loss as an outlier.

Buffalo has been as good as advertised at a base level, holding a 4-1 record. However, the Bills haven’t been super dominant against a pretty weak schedule.

In hindsight, scoring 41 points against Baltimore isn’t as impressive as it originally looked. The Bills also have wins over the 0-6 New York Jets, the 1-4 Miami Dolphins and the 1-4 New Orleans Saints.

The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their past three games, so backing the Falcons to cover a touchdown seems like a logical choice.

Monday Night Football SGP picks

London 6+ receptions (-157): London is the alpha receiver on this offence, and he should continue to see a lot of looks from Michael Penix Jr.

Here are a few reasons why:

  • His 28.46% target share ranks 12th in the NFL.
  • London has been targeted 10+ times in two different games this season.
  • He’s coming off an eight-catch performance against the Commanders.

The WR2 in this offence, Darnell Mooney, is once again out of the lineup this week, which should add more work to London’s plate.

In Week 5, Buffalo allowed Stefon Diggs to have a breakout game with his new team. The Patriots’ receiver hauled in 10 of his 12 targets for 146 yards.

Cook anytime TD (-150): The Bills running back is going under the radar, but he’s having another incredible season.

  • Cook led the NFL with 16 rushing touchdowns last season. That’s super impressive considering Josh Allen’s involvement in the run game.
  • Cook’s success has carried over into the new year. He’s scored five TDs in five games and is 4-1 against this line.

I’m expecting the Falcons to keep this one close, but I’d be a fool to think Buffalo isn’t going to have its fair share of scoring opportunities.

And that’s where Cook shines. He has 20 red zone carries, leading to four of his scores. Only Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor have more red zone carries.

Atlanta allows the fewest passing yards per game, so it would make sense for Sean McDermott to try his hand with the run game early.

Bills vs. Falcons predictions made at 11:40 a.m. on 10/12/2025.

Lions vs. Chiefs Week 6 SNF TD picks: Bet on Detroit’s St. Brown, LaPorta to find end zone

Lions vs. Chiefs TD picks

The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs meet in an electric matchup to headline a Sunday full of football.

The pregame narrative: The Lions’ offence has been humming, and that has plenty to do with Amon-Ra St. Brown leading all NFL wide receivers in touchdowns. I expect him to take another one to the house in Week 6. I’m also eyeing the value on Sam LaPorta after his big performance last weekend.

Check out our top Lions vs. Chiefs SNF TD picks.

Lions vs. Chiefs TD picks: Week 6

Best Bet: St. Brown to score a TD (+125)

The wide receiver’s success isn’t a matter of luck — it’s by design. The Lions want to target their WR1 as much as possible near the end zone.

  • St. Brown has eight receptions inside the red zone on 10 targets. No other NFL receiver has more than five red zone receptions entering Week 6.
  • His target share in the red zone is a whopping 71.4%, which also leads the league.

St. Brown had scored in three straight games before going without a TD in Week 5 despite having 100 yards receiving.

You would think Dan Campbell would rely on his two-headed monster out of the backfield near the goal line, but he often draws up plays specifically to get the ball into St. Brown’s hands.

And it’s worked wonders so far. Detroit leads the NFL in scoring with 34.8 points per game. If the Lions can score anywhere close to 30, St. Brown is practically guaranteed to see action in the red zone.

At plus-money, this feels like a no-brainer.

Key stat: St. Brown has cashed this wager in 14 of 22 games since the start of last season.

 Sunday Night Football TD picks

LaPorta to score a TD (+275): Detroit’s offence is booming, which gives good value to most players in the anytime TD markets.

LaPorta is fresh off his best game of the young season.

  • 6 targets
  • 5 receptions
  • 92 yards
  • 1 TD

It was his first score of the season, but he has carved out a role as one of Jared Goff’s top options.

  • St. Brown leads the team in receptions, and Jahmyr Gibbs ranks second in that department with 22.
  • LaPorta is just behind with 21, while no other Lions player has more than 11.

Besides Goff, no offensive skill position player has logged more snaps than the tight end this season.

LaPorta has started this year slowly in terms of scoring, but he had 17 TDs over the previous two seasons (33 games).

The Chiefs have a very good defence, but I would be foolish not to side with the Lions’ offence right now, and LaPorta has great value to score at this price.

Lions vs. Chiefs TD picks made at 11:07 a.m. ET on 10/12/2025.

Lions vs. Chiefs Week 6 SNF TD picks: Bet on Detroit’s St. Brown, LaPorta to find end zone

Lions vs. Chiefs TD picks

The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs meet in an electric matchup to headline a Sunday full of football.

The pregame narrative: The Lions’ offence has been humming, and that has plenty to do with Amon-Ra St. Brown leading all NFL wide receivers in touchdowns. I expect him to take another one to the house in Week 6. I’m also eyeing the value on Sam LaPorta after his big performance last weekend.

Check out our top Lions vs. Chiefs SNF TD picks.

Lions vs. Chiefs TD picks: Week 6

Best Bet: St. Brown to score a TD (+106)

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The wide receiver’s success isn’t a matter of luck — it’s by design. The Lions want to target their WR1 as much as possible near the end zone.

  • St. Brown has eight receptions inside the red zone on 10 targets. No other NFL receiver has more than five red zone receptions entering Week 6.
  • His target share in the red zone is a whopping 71.4%, which also leads the league.

St. Brown had scored in three straight games before going without a TD in Week 5 despite having 100 yards receiving.

You would think Dan Campbell would rely on his two-headed monster out of the backfield near the goal line, but he often draws up plays specifically to get the ball into St. Brown’s hands.

And it’s worked wonders so far. Detroit leads the NFL in scoring with 34.8 points per game. If the Lions can score anywhere close to 30, St. Brown is practically guaranteed to see action in the red zone.

At plus-money, this feels like a no-brainer.

Key stat: St. Brown has cashed this wager in 14 of 22 games since the start of last season.

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 Sunday Night Football TD picks

LaPorta to score a TD (+225): Detroit’s offence is booming, which gives good value to most players in the anytime TD markets.

LaPorta is fresh off his best game of the young season.

  • 6 targets
  • 5 receptions
  • 92 yards
  • 1 TD

It was his first score of the season, but he has carved out a role as one of Jared Goff’s top options.

  • St. Brown leads the team in receptions, and Jahmyr Gibbs ranks second in that department with 22.
  • LaPorta is just behind with 21, while no other Lions player has more than 11.

Besides Goff, no offensive skill position player has logged more snaps than the tight end this season.

LaPorta has started this year slowly in terms of scoring, but he had 17 TDs over the previous two seasons (33 games).

The Chiefs have a very good defence, but I would be foolish not to side with the Lions’ offence right now, and LaPorta has great value to score at this price.

Lions vs. Chiefs TD picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET on 10/12/2025.

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Bears vs. Commanders Week 6 Monday Night Football picks: Bet on DJ Moore, Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Bears vs. Commanders picks

The Chicago Bears are fresh off a bye week and return to action against the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Washington is facing some injury concerns ahead of this Week 6 contest, but is still the 4.5-point favourite to improve to 4-2 on the year. The Bears are 2-2 and could use a win to stay in the race in the loaded NFC North.

Check out my Bears vs. Commanders picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Oct. 13, featuring prop predictions on DJ Moore and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Bears vs. Commanders picks

Best Bet: Moore over 3.5 receptions (-143)

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With Rome Odunze emerging as the WR1 in this offence, opposing defences are going to start game planning to stop the sophomore.

That should open up more looks for Moore, who’s still very good.

  • After grabbing three receptions in Week 1, Moore has caught 4+ passes in the three games since.
  • He averages seven targets a game, which is plenty of volume to cash this wager.

Caleb Williams is taking a big step in his second season, which allows room for multiple receivers to cook.

The quarterback is averaging 32.5 pass attempts per game, so there are plenty of targets up for grabs.

So truthfully, it doesn’t matter how good Odunze plays — there’s always room for Moore to clear this modest line.

Key stat: Moore is 17-4 against this wager in Williams’ 21 career starts.

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Monday Night Football prop pick

Croskey-Merritt over 66.5 rushing yards (-113): Croskey-Merritt exploded in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers.

He ran for 111 yards on 14 carries, adding two touchdowns. It was the first time the rookie surpassed this number since his 82-yard performance in Week 1.

The running back has yet to play more than 50% of the snaps on offence. He’s also been given fewer than 10 carries in three of five weeks. But Croskey-Merritt certainly has earned a bigger share of this backfield.

L.A. has been getting exposed in the running game, so it opened up a perfect opportunity for Croskey-Merritt to take over the game.

And I expect that to be the case once again against the Bears.

Chicago has allowed a running back to clear this mark in all four games. The defence allows the second-most rushing yards per game (164.5) and most recently got lit up by Ashton Jeanty for 138 yards on 21 carries.

I don’t expect Croskey-Merritt to get as many touches as his fellow rookie did, but he’s the best between-the-tackles runner on the Commanders.

There’s also the chance that Dan Quinn unleashes the explosive back after his breakout performance last weekend.

Bears vs. Commanders picks made at 3:01 p.m. ET 10/11/2025.