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Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Week 9 MNF best bets and odds: Expect Mahomes to exploit Tampa Bay’s defence

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: I’m expecting a lot of offence in this game so I’m taking the over as my best bet. I also like prop picks on starting quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Chiefs best bets for Monday Night Football on Nov. 4.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs best bets

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Best Bet: Over 45.5 points (-110)

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Even though both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are sidelined with injuries, the gameplan stays the same in Tampa: Let Baker sling it.

Last week, in his first game without his star receivers, Mayfield and the Buccaneers put up 432 yards of offence which led to 26 points. I do expect less without Evans and Godwin, of course, but the Bucs still look like one of the more dangerous offensive teams.

Tampa Bay records the fifth most yards (404.6) and fourth most points (29.4) per game.

Kansas City’s defence has been amazing but I see that as a reason for this lower total which I am willing to buy low on.

The Buccaneers’ defence has been terrible so I can also picture Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offence carrying a lot of the load.

Key stat: Tampa Bay allows the second most yards (405.5) and fifth most points (26.4) per game. Five straight Bucs games have gone over this mark with an average of 64.4 total points.

Quick picks

Mahomes over 248.5 passing yards (-113): Mahomes has been disappointing to an extent this season with an 8:9 TD-to-INT ratio but if there’s any team to shine against, it’s the Buccaneers.

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The Chiefs QB has topped this line in two of his last three games and gets an advantageous matchup in Week 9.

I expect Tampa Bay to keep pace so Mahomes should be willing to pass for a majority of the game.

The Bucs’ defence allows the third most passing yards (255.4) per game with three of the last four starting QBs blowing past this mark.

Spencer Rattler was the lone signal-caller to fall short but barely as he had 243 passing yards in his NFL debut for the Saints in Week 6.

Mayfield over 229.5 passing yards (-121): This is a very achievable line for Mayfield even with the injuries and the Chiefs’ elite defence.

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The former first-overall pick topped 325 passing yards in four of his last five games and is averaging 273.6 per game on the season.

Tampa Bay ranks first in third-down conversion rate (52.5%) allowing the offence to stay on the field and consistently put up big numbers.

Picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET 11/03/2024.

NHL best bets Nov. 3: Back Flames as underdogs, fade offence in Blackhawks vs. Ducks

One total and an underdog moneyline pick make up my NHL best bets for Sunday.

The pregame narrative: A pair of promising young goalies meet in Anaheim which is a huge reason why I’m backing the under. I’m also taking a shot on the Calgary Flames at plus-money over the Edmonton Oilers.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 3 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Blackhawks/Ducks under 6 goals (-106)

It is hard to put into words how good Lukas Dostal has been in goal for the Anaheim Ducks so let’s take a look at some stats.

His 1.99 GAA and .945 SV% both rank top two in the NHL and he leads the league in goals saved above expected (13.6), according to MoneyPuck.

For context, Igor Shesterkin (10.4) and Frederik Anderson (7.1) rank second and third showing truly how dominant Dostal has been.

Arvid Soderblom starts across from him for the Chicago Blackhawks and he was solid in his first two starts of the season.

He allowed three goals against the Buffalo Sabres and two goals against the Winnipeg Jets – both games finished on six total goals or less.

Neither of these teams provides much of a threat on offence and I expect shutdown goaltending when required.

Key stat: Chicago and Anaheim combine to score 4.9 goals per game.

Quick pick

Flames moneyline (+125): Connor McDavid is out for a few weeks and the results have been mixed through two games.

The Oilers’ captain got injured on his first shift against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a game that they ended up losing 6-1.

His team rebounded and beat the Nashville Predators, 5-1, on the road but this is a good spot to fade it.

Edmonton closes out a four-game road trip in Calgary before returning home and playing the New Jersey Devils tomorrow night on a quick turnaround.

I can’t see the already poor offence improving in McDavid’s absence and that leaves me worried for the upcoming weeks.

The Oilers scored the third-fewest goals per game (2.45) while allowing the 11th most (3.27). They also have the league’s worst penalty kill (62.5%).

Calgary isn’t a world-beater by any means but it’s been solid at home (4-2-0) and is riding the momentum of a 3-0 win over the Devils on Friday.

NHL picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET 11/03/2024.

NHL best bets Nov. 3: Back Flames as underdogs, fade offence in Blackhawks vs. Ducks

One total and an underdog moneyline pick make up my NHL best bets for Sunday.

The pregame narrative: A pair of promising young goalies meet in Anaheim which is a huge reason why I’m backing the under. I’m also taking a shot on the Calgary Flames at plus-money over the Edmonton Oilers.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 3 below.

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Best Bet: Blackhawks/Ducks under 6 goals (+106)

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It is hard to put into words how good Lukas Dostal has been in goal for the Anaheim Ducks so let’s take a look at some stats.

His 1.99 GAA and .945 SV% both rank top two in the NHL and he leads the league in goals saved above expected (13.6), according to MoneyPuck.

For context, Igor Shesterkin (10.4) and Frederik Anderson (7.1) rank second and third showing truly how dominant Dostal has been.

Arvid Soderblom starts across from him for the Chicago Blackhawks and he was solid in his first two starts of the season.

He allowed three goals against the Buffalo Sabres and two goals against the Winnipeg Jets – both games finished on six total goals or less.

Neither of these teams provides much of a threat on offence and I expect shutdown goaltending when required.

Key stat: Chicago and Anaheim combine to score 4.9 goals per game.

Quick pick

Flames moneyline (+128): Connor McDavid is out for a few weeks and the results have been mixed through two games.

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The Oilers’ captain got injured on his first shift against the Columbus Blue Jackets in a game that they ended up losing 6-1.

His team rebounded and beat the Nashville Predators, 5-1, on the road but this is a good spot to fade it.

Edmonton closes out a four-game road trip in Calgary before returning home and playing the New Jersey Devils tomorrow night on a quick turnaround.

I can’t see the already poor offence improving in McDavid’s absence and that leaves me worried for the upcoming weeks.

The Oilers scored the third-fewest goals per game (2.45) while allowing the 11th most (3.27). They also have the league’s worst penalty kill (62.5%).

Calgary isn’t a world-beater by any means but it’s been solid at home (4-2-0) and is riding the momentum of a 3-0 win over the Devils on Friday.

NHL picks made at 10:39 a.m. ET 11/03/2024.

Maple Leafs props vs. Wild Nov. 3: Expect Marner and Kaprizov to carry offensive load

The Toronto Maple Leafs play their second game in as many nights against the surging Minnesota Wild.

The pregame narrative: The offensive firepower is abundant on both sides so I am backing two plus-money picks on star players Mitch Marner and Kirill Kaprizov.

Check out our Maple Leafs props vs. Wild for the game on Nov. 3.

Maple Leafs props vs. Wild

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Best Bet: Marner over 2.5 shots (+125)

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The winger leads all Leafs’ forwards in average ice time with 21:29 which includes 3:44 of powerplay time.

When a player as skilled as Marner is out there for that long, he is bound to find himself in good positions to get shots off.

As good as Minnesota has been this year, it can be susceptible to giving up shots. The team ranks in the middle of the league, giving up 28.7 per contest (16th).

Marner tallied three or more shots in just one of his six first contests. However, he appears to be putting more focus on getting pucks on net.

The Leafs are on a back-to-back and will need their big names to show up if they want a shot at beating the red-hot Wild.

Key stat: Marner has cleared this line in four of his last six games, averaging 3.7 shots on goal over that span.

Quick pick

Kaprizov to score 2+ points (+125): Kirill “The Thrill” has taken the league by storm this season, scoring 21 points in the Wild’s first 10 games.

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This would be a hefty line for most players but Kaprizov has shown he can clear it with ease regularly.

The electric winger recorded multiple points in seven straight games and eight of 10 on the season.

As mentioned a couple of times already, Toronto played last night and will be fighting the fatigue with the overnight travel into Minnesota.

The Leafs have allowed four or more goals in five of their last six games and if the Wild replicate that production, Kaprizov is surely to be in the mix.

Minnesota scores the fourth most goals per game (3.9) in the NHL.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 11/03/24.

NHL best bets Nov. 1: Bet on the Wild and Blue Jackets to win on home ice

One moneyline favourite and an underdog pick make up my NHL best bets for Nov. 1.

The pregame narrative: On Friday, I’m backing the Minnesota Wild on home ice over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elsewhere, I’m taking the Columbus Blue Jackets at plus money against the red-hot Winnipeg Jets.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 1 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Wild moneyline (-112)

Minnesota came away from an early seven-game road trip with a 5-1-1 record, which is awfully impressive.

The offence, led by Kirill Kaprizov (18 points in nine games), has scored an average of 3.78 goals per game and has barely played on home ice.

Backing a team fresh off a lengthy road trip isn’t usually a smart idea. But the Wild haven’t played since Tuesday, meaning they’ve had two off-days to settle in.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is in the middle of the gruelling part of its schedule. This will be the Lightning’s 10th game in 18 days.

Additionally, the Wild have the eighth most efficient power play in the league (25.8%), which will be a handy tool to have against Tampa’s 27th-ranked penalty kill (72.2%).

Key stat: Minnesota has a +10 goal differential this season despite only playing two games at home.

Quick pick

Blue Jackets moneyline (+137): You can’t cash on underdogs if you don’t take them, and this is a great spot to back Columbus.

Winnipeg is 9-1-0 this season, which is an intimidating record, but Columbus has a few advantages tonight.

Much like the Lightning, the Jets have also been busy over the last couple of weeks. This will be their eighth game in 15 nights with five of the final six coming on the road.

If they were looking ahead to their upcoming three-game homestand, I wouldn’t blame them.

Additionally, the Blue Jackets are a much better team this season than last. They are 4-2-0 at home (5-3-1 overall) and are seventh in the league in scoring (3.89 goals/game) while also allowing the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.78).

It would be understandable to look at the records and not think twice about backing the Jets, but when I consider all the factors, it’s clear the value lies with Columbus.

NHL picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET 11/01/2024.

NHL best bets Nov. 1: Bet on the Wild and Blue Jackets to win on home ice

One moneyline favourite and an underdog pick make up my NHL best bets for Nov. 1.

The pregame narrative: On Friday, I’m backing the Minnesota Wild on home ice over the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elsewhere, I’m taking the Columbus Blue Jackets at plus money against the red-hot Winnipeg Jets.

Find my NHL best bets for Nov. 1 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Wild moneyline (-113)

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Minnesota came away from an early seven-game road trip with a 5-1-1 record, which is awfully impressive.

The offence, led by Kirill Kaprizov (18 points in nine games), has scored an average of 3.78 goals per game and has barely played on home ice.

Backing a team fresh off a lengthy road trip isn’t usually a smart idea. But the Wild haven’t played since Tuesday, meaning they’ve had two off-days to settle in.

Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is in the middle of the gruelling part of its schedule. This will be the Lightning’s 10th game in 18 days.

Additionally, the Wild have the eighth most efficient power play in the league (25.8%), which will be a handy tool to have against Tampa’s 27th-ranked penalty kill (72.2%).

Key stat: Minnesota has a +10 goal differential this season despite only playing two games at home.

Quick pick

Blue Jackets moneyline (+150): You can’t cash on underdogs if you don’t take them, and this is a great spot to back Columbus.

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Winnipeg is 9-1-0 this season, which is an intimidating record, but Columbus has a few advantages tonight.

Much like the Lightning, the Jets have also been busy over the last couple of weeks. This will be their eighth game in 15 nights with five of the final six coming on the road.

If they were looking ahead to their upcoming three-game homestand, I wouldn’t blame them.

Additionally, the Blue Jackets are a much better team this season than last. They are 4-2-0 at home (5-3-1 overall) and are seventh in the league in scoring (3.89 goals/game) while also allowing the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.78).

It would be understandable to look at the records and not think twice about backing the Jets, but when I consider all the factors, it’s clear the value lies with Columbus.

NHL picks made at 11:39 a.m. ET 11/01/2024.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Nov. 1: Bet on Jokic and Gobert to be effective in +420 ticket

The Denver Nuggets clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Denver played a lot of extra basketball this week and that’s a huge reason why I like the Timberwolves to win tonight. Add a Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert prop to make up an intriguing +420 ticket.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 1.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves moneyline + Jokic over 25.5 points + Gobert over 11.5 rebounds (+420)

Timberwolves moneyline (-175): The Nuggets have been in some gruelling contests over the past week, so I’m riding with the less fatigued side at home.

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Denver went to overtime in consecutive games and squeaked out two wins over the far inferior Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.

Nikola Jokic played 40-plus minutes in both outings. Although I believe in the big man’s elite cardio, that is a testament to how much basketball the Nuggets have played over the last five days.

In addition, I believe the T-Wolves are the better team. They share an identical 2-2 record but have had to play the Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Lakers, and Dallas Mavericks. The two losses (Lakers and Mavericks) came by a combined nine points.

Julius Randle has been a great addition to the Minnesota frontcourt, averaging 23.3 points on a 60.7% field goal percentage.

Minnesota has the better depth and is well-rested, playing its third straight game at home. No need to overthink this one.

SGP legs

Jokic over 25.5 points (-157): Even though Rudy Gobert is a four-time Defensive Player of the Year, he has difficulty guarding more skilled bigs.

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On opening night, Anthony Davis lit up Gobert for 36 points and used his guard-like footwork to take advantage of the less mobile big man.

If there’s another centre in the league who can match Davis’ footwork it’s Jokic. He’s proven that by scoring 32 or more points in three straight outings against Minnesota.

With a lack of depth on the Nuggets’ roster, Jokic has logged more minutes than usual so far, which has led to significant production.

The reigning MVP played 35-plus minutes in all four games this year and is averaging over 30 points per game.

Gobert over 11.5 rebounds (-120): With Jokic having to take on a heavy workload, opposing centres have been able to feast on the glass.

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In fact, players at that position are averaging 19.7 rebounds per game against Denver. The Nuggets have allowed 12-plus rebounds to an opposing centre in each game so far.

Some may think the overtime games are inflating these numbers but only Nic Claxton of the Nets needed the extra five minutes to clear this line and he played 26 minutes.

Jakob Poeltl of the Raptors grabbed 17 rebounds in regulation and added two more in OT.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. on 11/01/24.

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EPL Matchday 10 picks and predictions: Bet on Arsenal and Chelsea to win this weekend

Two away sides are featured in my EPL Matchday 10 picks.

The pregame narrative: Arsenal has fallen out of form lately but I expect a bounce-back performance against Newcastle United this Saturday. On Sunday, I like Chelsea to beat a struggling Manchester United side.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 10 picks.

EPL Matchday 10 picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (+100)

Arsenal’s last two EPL results were a loss to AFC Bournemouth and a draw with second-place Liverpool.

In between those games, the Gunners won 3-0 in the League Cup and 1-0 over Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League.

Arsenal is a strong offensive squad, ranking fifth in goals for (1.9) and shots created (5.6) per game.

This feels like a must-win if the Gunners want to catch up with Man City and Liverpool and I predict a strong response from the London club.

Newcastle is in even poorer form than its counterpart, going winless in its last five EPL matches (0-2-3)

The side has only scored nine goals in as many games and currently holds a -1 goal differential on the season. For context, Arsenal is +7.

Key stat: In its last meeting with Newcastle, Arsenal won 4-1 while recording eight shots on goal.

Quick pick

Chelsea to win (+160): Chelsea and Manchester United meet on Sunday and the odds are just about even but I like the momentum Chelsea brings into Matchday 10.

The London club has been the much better side this season, going 5-2-2 while currently sitting in fifth in the Premier League table.

Meanwhile, Man U sits in 14th and has scored a disastrous eight goals in nine matches. Only Crystal Palace (17th) and Southampton (20th) have scored fewer.

Chelsea has a +8 goal differential which is miles better than The Red Devils’ -3 differential. Even though this game is at Old Trafford, I have no faith in the home team.

Picks made at 3:39 p.m. on 10/31/24.

EPL Matchday 10 picks and predictions: Bet on Arsenal and Chelsea to win this weekend

Two away sides are featured in my EPL Matchday 10 picks.

The pregame narrative: Arsenal has fallen out of form lately but I expect a bounce-back performance against Newcastle United this Saturday. On Sunday, I like Chelsea to beat a struggling Manchester United side.

Check out the best EPL Matchday 10 picks.

EPL Matchday 10 picks

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Best Bet: Arsenal to win (-104)

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Arsenal’s last two EPL results were a loss to AFC Bournemouth and a draw with second-place Liverpool.

In between those games, the Gunners won 3-0 in the League Cup and 1-0 over Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League.

Arsenal is a strong offensive squad, ranking fifth in goals for (1.9) and shots created (5.6) per game.

This feels like a must-win if the Gunners want to catch up with Man City and Liverpool and I predict a strong response from the London club.

Newcastle is in even poorer form than its counterpart, going winless in its last five EPL matches (0-2-3)

The side has only scored nine goals in as many games and currently holds a -1 goal differential on the season. For context, Arsenal is +7.

Key stat: In its last meeting with Newcastle, Arsenal won 4-1 while recording eight shots on goal.

Quick pick

Chelsea to win (+175): Chelsea and Manchester United meet on Sunday and the odds are just about even but I like the momentum Chelsea brings into Matchday 10.

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The London club has been the much better side this season, going 5-2-2 while currently sitting in fifth in the Premier League table.

Meanwhile, Man U sits in 14th and has scored a disastrous eight goals in nine matches. Only Crystal Palace (17th) and Southampton (20th) have scored fewer.

Chelsea has a +8 goal differential which is miles better than The Red Devils’ -3 differential. Even though this game is at Old Trafford, I have no faith in the home team.

Picks made at 1:09 p.m. on 10/31/24.

NHL best bets Oct. 31: Bet on the Capitals, back the under in the Ducks vs. Penguins game

One under on a game total and one puck line contribute to today’s best NHL bets.

The pregame narrative: The Anaheim Ducks and Pittsburgh Penguins struggle to score so I’m backing the under in that matchup. Elsewhere, I’m taking the Washington Capitals to win comfortably over the Montreal Canadiens.

Find my NHL best bets for Oct. 31 below.

NHL best bets

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Best Bet: Ducks/Penguins under 6 goals (+110)

Anaheim scores the third-fewest goals (2.33) and records the fourth-fewest shots (26.8) per game.

Goalie Lukas Dostal has emerged as the Ducks’ No. 1 option while John Gibson recovers from surgery and he’s been nothing short of spectacular.

In seven starts, Dostal has a .943 SV% and 2.00 GAA and he leads the NHL with 10.8 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck.

And it’s not like the Penguins are an elite offence. They rank 19th in goals per game (3.0) and have been shut out twice in 11 games.

Key stat: Dostal held his last four opponents to two goals or less while stopping 27-plus shots in each contest.

Quick pick

Capitals -1.5 (+120): Washington has surprised the league as one of the best teams out of the gate and it’s no fluke.

The offence scores the seventh-most goals per game (3.88) while allowing the fewest shots against (25.1).

Montreal has been somewhat of the opposite. The Habs score just 2.9 goals per game (21st) while allowing 4.0 (28th)

All five of their regulation losses have come by at least two goals with a -18 goal differential in those games.

Cayden Primeau gets the start for Montreal and he has allowed 3-plus goals in all five of his appearances this season despite only making three starts.

The Habs’ defence and goaltending have been poor in the early portion of the season and I expect that to continue against the Capitals on the road.

NHL picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET 10/31/2024.