Our staff has two ATS picks, one moneyline prediction and a player prop on MVP favourite Matthew Stafford.
The Week 15 narrative: The Bills visit the Patriots in a pivotal AFC East matchup. If New England wins, it will lock up the top spot in the division with a few weeks to go. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs are 4.5-point favourites over the Los Angeles Chargers.
Check out our NFL Week 15 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction from the Indianapolis Colts vs. Seattle Seahawks game.
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NFL Week 15 best bets
These NFL Week 15 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin and Spencer Closs.
Chargers +4.5: I’m done letting the Chiefs live off their reputation. This year’s squad is nothing like the ones that have reached the AFC championship game (or further) in seven straight seasons.
From 2018-24, the Chiefs went 95-23 (.805) straight up as favourites, per Team Rankings. This year, they’re just 5-6 (.455).
KC is on a five-game ATS losing streak, and it has four outright losses as a favourite in that span. For weeks, the Chiefs have played in what felt like must-win games, and it was easy to drum up a narrative that Patrick Mahomes and Co. would get it done.
But they haven’t, and now they’re close to being done.
The Chargers are travelling on a short week, so I get why they’re seeing some points on the road. But I’ll happily bank this number with a team that is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in its past six.
On a neutral field in Week 1, the Chargers beat the Chiefs, 27-21, as 3-point dogs.
-Horrobin
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Colts vs. Seahawks ATS prediction
Seahawks -13.5 (-110): The Indianapolis Colts’ season took a swift and decisive nosedive last week, as quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending injury amid the team’s third consecutive loss.
If you don’t know who the Colts’ starting QB candidates are for Sunday, allow me to enlighten you:
- Riley Leonard: A sixth-round rookie who averaged 5.0 yards per attempt and threw an interception in relief of Jones last week. Leonard is dealing with a knee injury and may not even be healthy enough to play.
- Brett Rypien: The 29-year-old was just signed off the Colts’ practice squad as insurance on Leonard. Rypien hasn’t attempted an NFL pass since Week 9 of 2023, when he went 13-for-28 for 130 yards and an interception with the Rams (L.A. lost, 20-3, to Green Bay).
- Philip Rivers: Rivers, 44, should be getting ready to fit into a gold jacket in Canton, Ohio … not a Colts jersey in Seattle. But the 17-year vet was signed to Indy’s practice squad this week and has an outside chance to appear in a game for the first time since 2020.
No matter which of these players gets in the game, Seattle should have a field day on defence.
Seattle ranks No. 2 in scoring defence and is allowing just 18.2 points/game at home.
Also, the Seahawks lead the NFL in point differential (+161) and ATS record (10-3-0).
-Horrobin
Bills vs. Patriots pick
Patriots ML (-103): The Bills are in shambles as the season rolls into its final weeks.
Their 9-4 record seems good at first glance, but they’ve struggled on the road (3-3) and have six wins against teams that are currently under .500.
Plus, the Patriots have been the Bills’ kryptonite over recent seasons. Buffalo has lost three of its past five games against New England (0-5 ATS), including a 24-21 loss at home earlier this year.
The Patriots are legit contenders now and should be treated as such. They have the NFL’s best record at 11-2 and have won 10 straight games.
Josh Allen and the Bills are 1-2 in their past three away games and haven’t shown enough on either side of the ball to make me think they can end the Pats’ streak.
–Closs
NFL Week 15 best bets: Player props
Stafford over 265.5 passing yards (-114): The Detroit Lions’ secondary is extremely vulnerable right now, and I expect Stafford to take advantage.
Safety (Brian Branch) and cornerback (Terrion Arnold) are arguably the Lions’ best defenders in the secondary, and both are done for the season. Then there’s safety Kerby Joseph, who hasn’t played since Week 6 and is questionable.
Detroit’s cornerbacks allow an 85.4 passer rating, per RotoWire, which ranks in the 23rd percentile. And with Branch out, the safety group is going to have a much more difficult time providing support.
-> Bet on Stafford vs. the Lions!
This yardage total is higher than Stafford’s season average (258.0 yards/game), but he’s still hit the over in seven of 13 starts.
The NFL MVP favourite has arguably the most envied WR tandem in the NFL, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. He should be able to orchestrate plenty of chunk plays against Detroit’s skeleton defensive crew.
Stafford has faced his old team twice since January 2024, and he threw for a combined 684 yards in those matchups — easily cashing this bet both times.
-Horrobin
NFL Week 15 best bets made at 3:40 p.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2025.
