After a 10-5 ATS showing for NFL favourites last week, how will underdogs respond in Week 10?
The latest: Our staff is backing the favourite in nine of 14 games, including the Detroit Lions on the road against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Check out our NFL Week 10 ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL Week 10 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 10 ATS picks for all 14 games.
NFL odds as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Thursday Night Football pick
Bengals vs. Ravens (Thursday, Nov. 7: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -6
Horrobin says: The Ravens covered the spread in Cincinnati earlier this year, and I like their chances to do it again on home turf on Thursday. Baltimore is 5-1-1 ATS since Week 3 and has won each of its past three home games by a touchdown or more. The Ravens are also on a three-game ATS win streak against the Bengals.
Pick: Ravens -6
NFL Week 10 ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Giants vs. Panthers (Sunday, Nov. 10: 9:30 a.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: New York -6.5
Horrobin says: I don’t believe either team deserves to be favoured for this matchup in Munich, Germany, so I’ll gladly bank a bunch of points with Carolina. The Panthers beat the Saints as 7-point underdogs last week, which will hopefully instill some confidence in reinstated QB Bryce Young. The Giants have lost four straight games SU and ATS.
Pick: Panthers +6.5
Falcons vs. Saints (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -3.5
Toman says: The Saints have dropped seven in a row and are down their top receiver (Chris Olave). One of those losses came to these Falcons (26-24 in Week 4), and Atlanta has been running hot ever since. The Falcons are 4-1 straight up, covering this number in all of those victories while averaging 28.6 points per game. New Orleans (3-6 ATS) is severely outclassed in this divisional matchup.
Pick: Falcons -3.5
Bills vs. Colts (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -3.5
Toman says: I’ll take the points with the Colts. Indianapolis is an AFC-best 7-2 ATS, covering this spread in all four home games. Three of its five losses have come by three points or fewer. Joe Flacco had a poor Week 9 but Indy is sticking with him and he’s a more viable option than Anthony Richardson. Jonathan Taylor goes from facing a stingy to suspect run defence. Expect him to make a mark.
Pick: Colts +3.5
Broncos vs. Chiefs (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -8
Closs says: The Broncos struggled against the Ravens last week and lost 41-10 in a blowout. Kansas City provides many of the same problems with an elite QB and strong defence that allows the fourth-fewest points against (18.4). Tampa Bay was able to keep pace with the Chiefs, taking them to overtime, but I don’t see Denver’s offence matching the Bucs’ performance.
Pick: Chiefs -8
Vikings vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Minnesota -6.5
Perri says: The Jaguars have looked frisky lately but are still 2-7 on the season and 3-12 going back to Week 13 of last year. Only five of those losses have been by seven-plus points but I think Brian Flores will dial up enough pressure to rattle Trevor Lawrence. Minnesota leads the league in blitz rate (39.9%) and pressure rate (30.8%).
Pick: Vikings -6.5
Bears vs. Patriots (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Chicago -6
Horrobin says: Even after a hideous performance in Arizona last week, I have to go back to the Bears now that they’re at home. Chicago is 4-0 ATS at Soldier Field this year and has covered the spread in each of those matchups. New England has averaged just 13.0 points per game on the road, falling below 20 points in each of those games.
Pick: Bears -6
Commanders vs. Steelers (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Washington -2.5
Perri says: Russell Wilson is cooking, leading the Steelers to consecutive wins with over 400 yards of offence in both games. Jayden Daniels has been electric but Mike Tomlin knows how to shut down rookie QBs. He’s 25-6 against them all-time and has won seven straight games following the bye.
Pick: Steelers +2.5
49ers vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Nov. 10: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -5.5
Horrobin says: The Buccaneers, who’ve already beaten the Lions and Commanders this season, were an overtime coin flip away from possibly upsetting the Chiefs, too. Christian McCaffrey will likely make his season debut for the 49ers, but I’m skeptical that he’ll see a full workload. San Francisco already has four outright losses this year as a favourite, and Tampa should at least keep it close.
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Titans vs. Chargers (Sunday, Nov. 10: 4:05 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -7.5
Closs says: The Chargers have been strong against the lesser talented teams due to their league-best scoring defence (12.6 points against per game). L.A. has covered this spread in back-to-back weeks as Justin Herbert has found his stride. He’s thrown for 561 yards and four TDs in those wins without any interceptions. Tennessee had big losses to the Lions and Bills in recent weeks and I predict the red-hot Chargers to have similar success.
Pick: Chargers -7.5
Make your NFL Week 10 predictions
Eagles vs. Cowboys (Sunday, Nov. 10: 4:25 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -7
Perri says: Can Cooper Rush pull off a miracle cover against a divisional rival? I’m going to say no. The Eagles have won four straight since their Week 5 bye, ranking top five in both offensive and defensive EPA per play in that span. Dallas has been horrible on both sides of the ball and I expect it to get embarrassed once again at home.
Pick: Eagles -7
Jets vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Nov. 10: 4:25 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: New York -1
Horrobin says: Jets fans got an olive branch last week in the form of a home victory over the Texans, but the team hasn’t built up enough goodwill for me to back them this week. New York is still just 3-6 ATS this year, while the Cardinals are 6-3 — covering in four of their past five. Arizona has scored 28-plus points in back-to-back weeks, and New York hasn’t hit that mark all season.
Pick: Cardinals +1
Sunday and Monday night NFL ATS picks
Texans vs. Lions (Sunday, Nov. 10: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -3.5
Perri says: Detroit has been rolling teams all season and I don’t see that stopping on Sunday Night Football. The Lions are averaging 36.0 PPG during their six-game winning streak and the Texans’ offence has looked mediocre at best this season. Nico Collins might be back but he didn’t practice on Wednesday. Even if he suits up I don’t think Houston can keep pace
Pick: Lions -3.5
Dolphins vs. Rams (Monday, Nov. 11: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -1
Closs says: Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are back for the Rams and the results have been encouraging. L.A. won three straight games coming into Week 10, including a 10-point win over the 6-2 Vikings. Additionally, the Rams are 8-2 in their last 10 games with both Kupp and Nacua active. Miami lost both games since getting Tua Tagovailoa back from injury, and I expect the Rams to stay hot and hand the Phins another loss.
Pick: Rams -1
Staff Week 9 + season-long records: Toman: 8-7 (72-61-5) | Closs: 9-6 (69-64-5) | Psihogios: 6-9 (66-67-5) | Perri: 11-4 (61-72-5) | Horrobin: 7-8 (59-74-5)
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