Last week was a tough one for our staff in the ATS market, but three of five writers are still above .500 on the year.
The latest: In Week 11, the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs are road underdogs against the Buffalo Bills (-2) in what will likely be the game of the week. Elsewhere, Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) look to build on last week’s win as they host the Seattle Seahawks.
Check out our NFL Week 11 ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL Week 11 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 11 ATS picks for all 14 games.
NFL odds as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Thursday Night Football pick
Commanders vs. Eagles (Thursday, Nov. 14: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -3.5
Perri says: Washington has been a great story but Philadelphia is hitting its stride and looks scary. The Eagles are a perfect 5-0 since their Week 5 bye, winning each game by at least four points. During that run, they rank first in defensive EPA per play, are averaging 29.4 PPG and have a +82 point differential.
Pick: Eagles -3.5
NFL Week 11 ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Ravens vs. Steelers (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1:00 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -3
Perri says: Mike Tomlin as a divisional home underdog? Sign me up. Pittsburgh is 7-1 in its last eight games against the Ravens and while Lamar Jackson only played in three of those games, he lost each of them. The Steelers also had a revolving door of awful QBs in that span and now have Russell Wilson, who has the offence averaging 30.3 points during his perfect 3-0 run.
Pick: Steelers +3
Colts vs. Jets (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: New York -4
Toman says: I have no interest in touching the Jets as a favourite. They’re coming off their most lopsided loss of the season and have dropped six of their last seven. New York is 3-7 ATS while the Colts are 7-3 ATS and have been competitive most games. Anthony Richardson is back at QB which might be bad for winning games, but he has RB Jonathan Taylor as a game-changing safety net.
Pick: Colts +4
Browns vs. Saints (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: New Orleans -0.5
Closs says: I don’t think anyone has this game circled on their calendar but there are a few reasons to like the Browns. Over the past two weeks, they’ve played the Chargers and Ravens, splitting those games 1-1. The Saints provide a much less intimidating matchup as their defence allows the fourth most yards per game (399.5). That includes allowing the sixth-most rushing yards (141.0). Nick Chubb is healthy and I expect him to have a huge game against the Saints.
Pick: Browns +0.5
Vikings vs. Titans (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Minnesota -6
Closs says: The Titans have just one win in the past four weeks and it came against the Patriots. They lost the other games to the Bills, Lions and Chargers and all three covered this six-point spread. Tennessee allows the fewest yards per game (288.3) but allows the fourth most points (26.7). That shows how bad the offence has been at staying on the field. The Vikings are 7-2 this season and have won by six or more five times.
Pick: Vikings -6
Rams vs. Patriots (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -5
Horrobin says: I just don’t like this spot for the Rams. They’re on a short week, travelling across the country to face a New England squad that’s riding a three-game ATS win streak. Even with a full arsenal of weapons last week, Los Angeles only scored 15 points against Miami’s so-so defence. The Rams have pushed or failed to cover this number in seven of nine games.
Pick: Patriots +5
Raiders vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Miami -7
Perri says: Miami got off the mat with a big win over the Rams and now has an outside shot at a playoff spot. Laying a beating on the Raiders at home would go a long way in making that a reality. Las Vegas averages the fourth-fest yards and eighth-fewest points per game. It also gives up the third-most points per game. This should be a rout.
Pick: Dolphins -7
Jaguars vs. Lions (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -14
Closs says: This is a ridiculously high spread but Detroit is one team that has proven it can cover this. The Lions lead the NFL in point differential (+113) and have covered this spread in two of their last five wins. Both those wins were against teams under .500 (Dallas, Tennessee) and thats right where the Jags sit, too. Jacksonville is 2-8 this season and is without Trevor Lawrence for the foreseeable future.
Pick: Lions -14
Packers vs. Bears (Sunday, Nov. 17: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -5.5
Horrobin says: Green Bay is on a three-game ATS losing skid, but this should be a perfect spot for a comfortable win. The Packers, who are coming off a bye, face a Bears team that hasn’t found the end zone in back-to-back games. Green Bay has covered this number in 10 straight games against Chicago, including twice with Jordan Love at the helm last season.
Pick: Packers -5.5
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Falcons vs. Broncos (Sunday, Nov. 17: 4:05 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Denver -2.5
Closs says: Atlanta has been struggling lately and I expect that to continue with Kirk Cousins now on the injury report. The QB has been limited at practice with multiple injuries to his throwing arm (elbow, shoulder). Denver’s offence is strong, allowing the sixth-fewest yards (315.9) and fourth-fewest points 17.7) per game. That will be trouble for a less than 100% Cousins. Bo Nix has a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio over the past three weeks and I believe he can do enough to outpace the Falcons.
Pick: Broncos -2.5
Seahawks vs. 49ers (Sunday, Nov. 17: 4:05 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -6.5
Perri says: The 49ers are 23-4 in the regular season when Christian McCaffrey plays, covering this spread 20 times. That includes three games against Seattle which San Francisco won by an average of 12.6 points (in addition to a 41-23 playoff win in 2022). The Seahawks have lost five of their last six and I expect the downward spiral to continue.
Pick: 49ers -6.5
Make your NFL Week 11 predictions
Chiefs vs. Bills (Sunday, Nov. 17: 4:25 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -2
Horrobin says: Don’t bet against Mahomes as an underdog (or probably ever), right? Well, I’m doing it. Kansas City has skated by far too often this year en route to a 9-0 record with just a +58 point differential. Buffalo, which has an AFC-best +97 point differential, has beaten the Chiefs by a field goal or more in three straight seasons.
Pick: Bills -2
Sunday and Monday night NFL ATS picks
Bengals vs. Chargers (Sunday, Nov. 10: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -1.5
Horrobin says: Everyone knows that L.A. doesn’t have much of a home-field advantage, and I think Cincinnati can emerge from SoFi Stadium with a moneyline win. The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the road this year with a +25 point differential in those games. None of the Chargers’ six wins have come against an above-.500 team.
Pick: Bengals +1.5
Texans vs. Cowboys (Monday, Nov. 18: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Houston -7.5
Toman says: There’s very little to like about the Cowboys, one of this season’s most disappointing teams. But the Texans have their own issues — and injuries — and simply don’t win big. They are 1-9 ATS against this number a season after going 3-14 vs. a -7.5 spread. Houston is coming off a demoralizing loss in which it got outscored 19-0 in the second half at home.
Pick: Cowboys +7.5
Staff Week 10 + season-long records: Toman: 5-9 (77-70-5) | Closs: 5-9 (74-73-5) | Psihogios: 8-6 (74-73-5) | Horrobin: 7-7 (66-81-5) | Perri: 4-10 (65-82-5)
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