Last week was another strong week for favourites, who posted a 9-5 record against the spread. Can underdogs respond in this week’s 13-game slate?
The latest: The heaviest underdogs for NFL Week 12 are the Carolina Panthers (+11), and one of our staff writers is backing them at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. There’s one pick’em on the docket, as the Seattle Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals.
Check out our NFL Week 12 ATS picks for predictions on every game.
NFL Week 12 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 12 ATS picks for all 13 games.
NFL odds as of 10:50 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
Go to full NFL betting markets
Thursday Night Football pick
Steelers vs. Browns (Thursday, Nov. 21: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Pittsburgh -3.5
Perri says: This feels like a trap game for the Steelers, who have won their last two contests by a combined three points with a +3 turnover differential. It’s going to be wet and cold in Cleveland and I don’t trust Pittsburgh’s 30th-ranked red zone offence to engineer a blowout win.
Pick: Browns +3.5
NFL Week 12 ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Cowboys vs. Commanders (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Washington -10.5
Toman says: This spread could be a touchdown more and I’d still probably take the Commanders. The Cowboys (2-8 ATS) are cooked, losing by more than 20 points in consecutive games since Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending injury. They haven’t scored more than 10 points and have given up 34 points both times. There isn’t much more to it than that.
Pick: Commanders -10.5
Lions vs. Colts (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -7.5
Closs says: Detroit continues to destroy its opposition on the ground and the Colts aren’t good at stopping the run. Indianapolis allows the fifth-most rushing yards (143.1) per game. The Lions have covered this spread in five of the past seven games and I expect them to do it again on the road against the Colts.
Pick: Lions -7.5
Chiefs vs. Panthers (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -11
Horrobin says: Kansas City is 9-1 but has only covered this number once. Seven of the Chiefs’ games have been decided by one score, and they bring a four-game ATS losing skid into Carolina this week. I’m not bullish about the Panthers, but they did post back-to-back wins before last week’s bye. The vibes are the highest they’ve been in Charlotte since Bryce Young’s draft night.
Pick: Panthers +11
Vikings vs. Bears (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Minnesota -3.5
Perri says: Chicago has lost four straight games but is still 6-4 against this number this season. The Bears came inches away from beating the Packers on a blocked field goal last week and Sam Darnold hasn’t looked sharp following the bye (3-2 record, eight TDs, six INTs). Buy low on the Bears in a bounce-back spot.
Pick: Bears +3.5
Patriots vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Miami -7.5
Closs says: With Tua Tagovailoa back at QB, the Dolphins are coming alive. They won back-to-back games and had a close three-point loss against the Bills. New England is 2-4 on the road and three of those losses came by double-digit points. I feel good about the Dolphins covering this lofty spread in Week 12.
Pick: Dolphins -7.5
Buccaneers vs. Giants (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets Line: Tampa Bay -6
Toman says: Tampa enters on a four-game skid but has played competitive football since losing star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Its last three losses have all been by six points or fewer. The good news, coming off a bye, is that Evans intends to play in Week 12 against an offensively challenged Giants team that’s undergoing a change at QB. New York is averaging an NFL-low 15.6 PPG.
Pick: Buccaneers -6
Titans vs. Texans (Sunday, Nov. 24: 1 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Houston -8
Horrobin says: Nico Collins didn’t have a huge game in his return for Houston last week, but his presence still makes me feel good about the Texans’ chances to run it up. The Titans are in shambles, going 1-9 ATS this season and losing four of their past five games by 10-plus points. Last season, Houston went 2-0 ATS against Tennessee.
Pick: Texans -8
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Broncos vs. Raiders (Sunday, Nov. 24: 4:05 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Denver -6
Horrobin says: Denver is 7-2 ATS in its past nine games, which includes a 16-point victory over Las Vegas last month. The Broncos are also 4-0 ATS as favourites this year, and Bo Nix is currently playing some respectable ball (114.5 QB rating, 9:1 TD-to-INT ratio in his past four games). Vegas is 1-5 against this number since the start of October.
Pick: Broncos -6
Cardinals vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Nov. 24: 4:25 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -0.5
Closs says: Siding with the home team is usually smart in divisional games but I don’t think that’s the case here. Seattle is 2-4 at home and owns a 1-2 divisional record. The Cardinals are 6-4 overall, 2-2 on the road and 2-0 in divisional games. Over the past two weeks, Arizona has scored 60 points while allowing only 15 and I believe it can extend its win streak to five over the Seahawks.
Pick: Cardinals +0.5
Make your NFL Week 12 predictions
49ers vs. Packers (Sunday, Nov. 24: 4:25 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -2
Perri says: San Francisco choked away another fourth-quarter lead last week but I expect a market correction against a Packers team which hasn’t impressed me. Green Bay needed a miracle to beat Chicago and is 2-6 ATS with Jordan Love under centre. The 49ers offence was prolific last season and I expect it to start heating up with Christian McCaffrey back in the fold.
Pick: 49ers -2
Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks
Eagles vs. Rams (Sunday, Nov. 24: 8:20 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -3
Perri says: Philadelphia has been bullying teams since its Week 5 bye with a 6-0 record and +80 point differential. In that span, the Birds are perfect ATS against this number and rank first in defensive EPA per play. Los Angeles has looked better since its star receivers returned but Philly seems to be a legitimate buzzsaw.
Pick: Eagles -3
Ravens vs. Chargers (Monday, Nov. 25: 8:15 p.m.)
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NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -2.5
Horrobin says: The Chargers are built to run the ball, but Justin Herbert proved last week that he can shine in a laser show, too. L.A. is on a four-game ATS win streak while scoring 25-plus points in each of those matchups. Baltimore is 1-3 ATS in its past four and has a pair of outright losses as the favourite in its past two road games.
Pick: Chargers +2.5
Staff Week 11 + season-long records: Toman: 9-5 (86-75-5) | Closs: 8-6 (82-79-5) | Psihogios: 5-9 (79-82-5) | Horrobin: 9-5 (75-86-5) | Perri: 8-6 (73-88-5)
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