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NFL Week 6 staff best bets: Back Steelers at home, Justin Fields in London

NFL best bets

Our staff’s Week 6 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and a prop bet.

The Week 6 narrative: Rest advantages are huge in the NFL, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have a massive one over the Cleveland Browns. Elsewhere, Justin Fields is a solid candidate to run wild against the Denver Broncos in this week’s London game.

Check out our NFL Week 6 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend.

NFL Week 6 best bets

These NFL Week 6 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Jordan Horrobin.

ATS picks

Steelers -5.5 (-110): The NFL schedule makers really hosed Cleveland here.

The Steelers are 3-1 and coming off a bye, while the Browns are returning from London, playing their third consecutive game in a wildly different time zone.

Cleveland (1-4) isn’t a good team to begin with, particularly given its horrible offensive numbers:

  • 32nd in points per game (14.6)
  • 30th in EPA per play (-0.164)
  • 27th in yards per game (288.2)
  • 26th in pressure rate allowed (25.6%)

The Browns have failed to score 20 points in 10 consecutive games. I can’t imagine a rookie quarterback snapping that streak against a well-rested Steelers defence on the road.

-Perri

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Falcons +4.5 (-108): The Falcons have the NFL’s ugliest defeat this season, losing 30-0 in Carolina a few weeks ago.

But they covered this number in their other three games, including a last-second loss to Tampa Bay and a 16-point win as underdogs in Minnesota.

Coming off a bye, Atlanta has a distinct rest advantage — and a home-field advantage — over a Buffalo squad that hasn’t left the tri-state area all season. The Bills are on a three-game ATS losing streak.

-Horrobin

Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge: ENTER NOW!

Seattle puts stellar road record to the test

Seahawks moneyline (-106): Seattle has a long journey to Jacksonville, but with an extra day of rest, I don’t see that being much of an issue.

The Seahawks have a pair of one-score losses against quality divisional opponents (49ers, Buccaneers) and have been one of the strongest overall teams so far. Their +41 point differential is the fourth-best in the NFL.

Oh, and Seattle is 9-1 on the road since the start of last season.

The Jaguars somehow beat the Chiefs despite losing the turnover battle and being outgained by 157 yards. I view this as a letdown spot for the AFC South’s surprise upstart.

-Horrobin

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NFL Week 6 best bets: Player props

Fields over 36.5 rushing yards (-117): On paper, this seems like the perfect matchup for Fields to run wild.

New York doesn’t have any stud receiving weapons outside of Garrett Wilson, and he should be completely locked down by the league’s best corner, and reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Patrick Surtain II.

Denver also boasts an elite pass rush, ranking ninth in win rate, according to ESPN.com.

Fields will be forced to use his legs to extend plays if no one is open and he’s under constant pressure, and we’ve already seen him do that plenty.

He is 3-1 against this line so far while averaging 51 yards per game.

Let me leave you with one disclaimer: Denver has allowed 15 total rushing yards to opposing QBs this season. But that doesn’t faze me. Fields is an elite running QB who can make anyone miss.

-Perri

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NFL Week 6 best bets made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 10/09/2025.

10 Hot New Casino Games to play in October

October New Releases

Looking for the latest hot, new casino game releases at NorthStar Bets? 

This past month’s lineup is packed with thrilling options that promise big entertainment. Whether you’re a fan of high-volatility action or prefer a more strategic gaming experience, there’s something for every type of player.

Here’s a quick guide with links to the latest titles. So get ready to spin, bet, and entertain yourself with the best new games at NorthStar Bets!

-> Play October’s New Releases: CLICK HERE

Hot New Casino Game Releases

1. Amazing Link – Apollo’s Fortune
Volatility: Medium-High
Number of Reels: 5 | Paylines: 20
Description: Harness the power of the sun god! Trigger the legendary Amazing Link feature to capture epic jackpots — up to 5,000x — multiple tiers of free spins, and ultimately, Apollo’s golden fortune.

2. Fire Stampede 2
Volatility: High
Number of Reels: 6 | Paylines: 1,875
Description: Like its predecessor, Fire Stampede 2 presents another scorching adventure that taps into the fiery chaos of the North American prairie. This high-energy sequel keeps the explosive Connect & Collect mechanics while cranking up the heat with upgraded free spins and bigger win potential.

-> Play October’s New Releases: CLICK HERE

3. Area Link – Wolf
Volatility: High
Number of Reels: 5 | Paylines: 20
Description: Read to answer the call of the wild? Collect glowing orbs to trigger the Area Link feature, where majestic wolves guide you to multiplied wins and jackpots.

New Casino Game Releases: October

4. Elevating Riches Ocean
Volatility: High
Number of Reels: 5 | Paylines: 243+
Description: Dive into a realm of deep-sea treasures! Watch the reels elevate with every win, unlocking more ways to secure Poseidon’s riches.

5. Heist Guys
Volatility: Medium
Number of Reels: 6 | Paylines: Cluster Pays
Description: Join the crew and pull off the ultimate score. Spin for winning clusters to trigger avalanches and break into the vault for massive multiplier rewards.

-> Play October’s New Releases: CLICK HERE

6. Bison Moon Power Combo
Volatility: Medium-High
Number of Reels: 5 | Paylines: 25-40
Description: Roam the moonlit plains where majestic bison lead to fortune. Combine powerful features with the Power Combo mechanic for a shot at multiple bonus rounds.

7. Cash Strike Hotstepper 2
Volatility: High
Number of Reels: 3 | Paylines: 5
Description: Amp up the action with a maximum win of 10,000x your bet in this electrified sequel. The fan-favorite Cash Collect feature is back with a twist, now enhanced by Super Strike and Hotstepper mechanics that create more chances to ignite instant prizes. 

8. 10X Cash
Volatility: High
Number of Reels: 3 | Paylines: N/A
Description: Simple, classic, and packed with potential. Spin for the cash symbols and hit the 4th reel to multiply your winnings by up to 10x!

9. Bill & Coin 2
Volatility: Medium-High
Number of Reels: 6 | Paylines: 4,096
Description: The charismatic duo is back for more Egyptian riches! Choose your bonus path and cascade your way to treasure in this feature-packed sequel.

10. Rise of Atlantis Legacy
Volatility: High
Number of Reels: 6 | Paylines: Scatter Pays
Description: Unleash the power of rising multipliers that build with every cascade for legendary, god-like payouts. There’s a legacy of a sunken city to explore … for those willing to take the plunge!

-> Play October’s New Releases: CLICK HERE

NFL Beat the Spread Challenge staff picks leaderboard

NFL Beat the Spread

NorthStar Bets’ NFL Beat the Spread Challenge has officially entered its second week!

If you haven’t joined our free-to-play contest yet, it’s not too late to sign up.

How does it work? Make picks against the spread on every NFL game of the season. What’s in it for you? A chance at weekly prizes and a shot at $5,000!

Need help deciding who to back for the loaded Week 4 slate, which features a Monday Night Football doubleheader? Check out our staff NFL against the spread predictions.

See who’s running hot and cold and come back here every Thursday for our staff’s latest picks.

Picks are made by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Steven Psihogios, and Chris Toman.

WriterWeek 3Season record
Toman7-924-24
Perri4-1220-28
Horrobin6-1020-28
Closs7-920-28
Psihogios6-1019-29

Enter NorthStar Bets’ Beat the Spread Challenge now!

NFL Beat the Spread staff predictions

Looking for more NFL betting resources? See the links below.

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NFL Week 4 Beat the Spread staff predictions: ATS picks on every football game

NFL ATS picks

NFL Week 4 is here, and our staff has against-the-spread predictions for all 16 games.

The Week 4 narrative: With the injuries starting to take effect, there are some big spreads on the board. The Buffalo Bills are 15.5-point favourites over the New Orleans Saints, while the Denver Broncos close out the week as -7.5 favourites against the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals.

Check out our staff’s Week 4 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.

NFL ATS picks: Week 4

NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 4 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.

NFL odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025.

Thursday Night Football pick

Seahawks vs. Cardinals (Thursday, Sept. 25: 8:15 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Seahawks -1.5
Closs says: Arizona may be 2-1, but the results have been disappointing. The Cardinals have wins over the Panthers and Saints, but recorded fewer total yards than their opponent in both games. Seattle is also 2-1 but was more dominant in the wins. The Seahawks have scored more points (75) in the last two weeks (both wins) than Arizona has in three games (63). I’ll back the more reliable team in this early-season divisional matchup.

Staff picks: Perri (SEA) | Horrobin (SEA) | Closs (SEA) | Toman (SEA) | Psihogios (ARI)

Sunday morning NFL Dublin pick

Vikings vs. Steelers (Sunday, Sept. 28: 9:30 a.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -2.5
Toman says: The Vikings ran the ball well in a Week 3 blowout win over the Bengals and could be in for another big effort on the ground vs. the Steelers, who have struggled against the run. Backup QB Carson Wentz has the top playmaker in this game (Justin Jefferson) and is getting fellow wideout Jordan Addison back from suspension. The Steelers have enjoyed a soft schedule on their way to a 2-1 mark. It’s the Vikings for me in Dublin.

Staff picks: Perri (MIN) | Horrobin (MIN) | Closs (PIT) | Toman (MIN) | Psihogios (PIT)

NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate

Panthers vs. Patriots (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Patriots -5.5
Closs says: Carolina behind Bryce Young has been streaky and now’s the time to buy in after a 30-0 blowout of the Falcons. Last season, the Panthers started the season 0-5 against this spread, but once Young found some rhythm, they closed the year covering this spread in six of nine games. The Patriots are rolling at 2-1, but haven’t shown me enough to warrant this spread.

Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (CAR) | Closs (CAR) | Toman (CAR) | Psihogios (NE)

Browns vs. Lions (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Lions -10
Closs says: Detroit struggled in Week 1 against Green Bay, but I think it’s proven the offence is still legit. The Lions scored 52 points against the Bears and then upset the Ravens, scoring 38. The Browns did beat the Packers, but have yet to score more than 17 points in a game. That makes it an easy choice to back Detroit even at a high spread.

Staff picks: Perri (CLE) | Horrobin (DET) | Closs (DET) | Toman (DET) | Psihogios (DET)

Chargers vs. Giants (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Chargers -6.5
Perri says: Jaxson Dart makes his NFL debut against one of the best defences in the NFL. Hats off to the Giants for giving the kid a soft landing spot. Los Angeles not only has an elite defence, but is getting superb QB play out of Justin Herbert, who ranks first in passing with a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio. 

Staff picks: Perri (LAC) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (LAC) | Psihogios (NYG)

Saints vs. Bills (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Bills -15.5
Perri says: Buffalo has made a habit of killing bad teams at home. They’re at home, and the Saints are an awful team. And while this is a huge number, Josh Allen and Co. have the rest and travel advantage after playing on TNF in Week 3. New Orleans has lost seven straight games dating back to last season with a -101 point differential. 

Staff picks: Perri (BUF) | Horrobin (BUF) | Closs (BUF) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)

Bet on NFL Week 3

Eagles vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -3.5
Perri says: I’ll ride with the home underdogs in a battle of undefeated teams. Tampa Bay is 9-2 in its last 11 games dating back to its Week 11 bye last season, averaging a stellar 28.6 PPG in that span. Tampa Bay has allowed under 100 rushing yards in 11 straight games, and it ranks first in defensive EPA per rush. I think Saquon Barkley will struggle in this one.

Staff picks: Perri (TB) | Horrobin (TB) | Closs (PHI) | Toman (TB) | Psihogios (PHI)

Titans vs. Texans (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Texans -7
Perri says: Cam Ward is still searching for his first win, as the Titans are 0-3 with a league-worst -43 point differential. That’s ugly, but Houston has been just as bad. C.J. Stroud is struggling behind a brutal offensive line, and the winless Texans are averaging a league-worst 12.7 PPG. You can’t justify laying a touchdown with them in any matchup.

Staff picks: Perri (TEN) | Horrobin (HOU) | Closs (HOU) | Toman (TEN) | Psihogios (HOU)

Commanders vs. Falcons (Sunday, Sept. 28: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Commanders -1
Horrobin says: After a 30-0 loss to Carolina last week, I can’t possibly back the Falcons in what is essentially a pick’em. The Commanders could have Jayden Daniels back (unknown at the time of this writing), but even if they don’t, they can lean on a rushing attack that amassed 201 yards and three TDs last week. Atlanta’s defence ranks 25th in rushing success rate.

Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin (WSH) | Closs (ATL) | Toman (ATL) | Psihogios (ATL)

NFL 4 p.m. slate

Colts vs. Rams (Sunday, Sept. 28: 4:05 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Rams -3.5
Horrobin says: I’m scarred by the Rams’ collapse last week, when they choked away a 19-point lead and failed to cover against the Eagles. But L.A. did have the defending champs on the ropes — on the road, no less — and that’s more impressive than anything the Colts have accomplished. Matthew Stafford threw for 319 yards in a six-point win over Indianapolis two years ago, and he’s looked great for the Rams so far this season.

Staff picks: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (LAR) | Closs (LAR) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (LAR)

Place your bets on the 4 p.m. NFL slate

Jaguars vs. 49ers (Sunday, Sept. 28: 4:05 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: 49ers -3
Toman says: San Francisco lost Nick Bosa, QB Brock Purdy is questionable after missing two weeks and Christian McCaffrey hasn’t run well. Yet the 49ers enter Week 4 undefeated. Every game they’ve played has been close and they’ve needed late scores to win two of them. That tightrope act generally doesn’t stay successful for too long. Thanks to a cupcake schedule that their defence took advantage of, the Jags should probably be 3-0 themselves. I believe they can win outright, so I’ll take the 3 points here.

Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin (SF) | Closs (JAX) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (SF)

Ravens vs. Chiefs (Sunday, Sept. 28: 4:25 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Ravens -3
Perri says: I can’t imagine the Ravens dropping to 1-3 with this roster. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have the squad averaging a blistering 37.0 PPG, but poor defence and untimely turnovers have resulted in a pair of crushing losses. Kansas City just beat the Giants on the road, but I’m not impressed by its offence. Also, Mahomes is 0-2 ATS as a home underdog.

Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin (BAL) | Closs (BAL) | Toman (KC) | Psihogios (BAL)

Bears vs. Raiders (Sunday, Sept. 28: 4:25 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Raiders -1
Closs says: The Bears have proven to be the better offence through three weeks. Caleb Williams has a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio while Geno Smith has struggled at times. He’s thrown four INTs, and three of his four TD passes came in a 41-24 loss to the Commanders without Jayden Daniels. Ben Johnson and the Bears are coming off their best game so far (31-14 win vs. Dallas), and I expect the momentum to carry forward.

Staff picks: Perri (CHI) | Horrobin (CHI) | Closs (CHI) | Toman (CHI) | Psihogios (LV)

Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks

Packers vs. Cowboys (Sunday, Sept. 28: 8:20 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Packers -6.5
Horrobin says: After hanging in against the Eagles, the Cowboys have allowed 68 combined points to the Giants and Bears. Woof. Green Bay covered this number in wins over the Lions and Commanders, and this should be a get-right game after an embarrassing loss in Cleveland last week. The Packers’ defence, led by Micah Parsons, is No. 2 in the league in overall success rate.

Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (GB) | Closs (DAL) | Toman (GB) | Psihogios (DAL)

Bet on Sunday Night Football

Jets vs. Dolphins (Monday, Sept. 29: 7:15 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Dolphins -3
Horrobin says: Both teams are winless, but New York has come a lot closer to getting into the win column. Two of the Jets’ losses have covered this spread. The Dolphins are dead last in defensive EPA per play, and their point differential (-41) is 17 points worse than New York’s.

Staff picks: Perri (MIA) | Horrobin (NYJ) | Closs (NYJ) | Toman (NYJ) | Psihogios (NYJ)

Bengals vs. Broncos (Monday, Sept. 29: 8:15 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Broncos -7.5
Horrobin says: Jake Browning looked totally overmatched on the road in Minnesota last week, taking three sacks and throwing two interceptions in a 48-10 loss. Now he’s back on the road against a Denver defence that has the highest pressure rate in the NFL (39.2%). The Broncos covered this spread in their lone home game of 2025.

Staff picks: Perri (CIN) | Horrobin (DEN) | Closs (DEN) | Toman (DEN) | Psihogios (DEN)

NFL ATS picks: Week 3 + season records: Toman: 7-9 (24-24) | Perri: 4-12 (20-28) | Horrobin: 6-10 (20-28) | Psihogios: 6-10 (19-29) | Closs: 7-9 (20-28)

NFL Week 4 staff best bets: Bet on Rams to end Colts’ perfect season, Caleb Williams to stay hot

NFL Week 4 best bets

Our staff’s Week 4 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and two prop bets.

The Week 4 narrative: The Los Angeles Rams blew a 19-point lead last week and have the chance to bounce back at home. They’re one of two teams featured in this week’s best bets. On the prop market, look to fade Saquon Barkley against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out our NFL Week 4 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction on quarterback Caleb Williams.

NFL Week 4 best bets

These NFL Week 4 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Spencer Closs.

ATS picks

Rams -3.5 (-107): I can’t discredit the Colts much. They are 3-0 with a +47 point differential, but one knock against them is the quality of their opponents.

  • In Week 1, they beat the Dolphins by 25 points. In Week 3, they bashed the Titans by 21.
  • Indianapolis struggled against the Broncos, scratching out a 29-28 victory thanks to a second chance on a buzzer-beating field goal.

It’s safe to say Denver has been the Colts’ toughest competitor, and I’d argue that the Broncos are a tier below the Rams.

L.A. should probably be 3-0, too, but it blew a big lead to the defending champion Eagles last week.

Puka Nacua is shaping into an elite receiver, and the Rams thrive with their star in the lineup. They are 8-2 in their past 10 regular-season games with Nacua active, and they were Philly’s only real test in the 2024 playoffs.

I can’t help but feel the Colts are a bit overrated, so I’ll buy in on the Rams at home.

Best moneyline bet

Bears ML (-103): I know they’re on the road, but the Bears look like the better team. The Raiders have scored more than 20 points just once, and it came in last week’s 41-24 loss to the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

For Chicago, Caleb Williams is cooking as a sophomore:

  • 7 TD passes
  • 1 INT
  • 107.6 passer rating

Last week, he threw for four TDs with no turnovers. Chicago did play an awful Dallas defence, but it’s certainly something to build on.

Geno Smith has been decent, but his 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio is not very good. Plus, two of his TD passes came in garbage time last week when Las Vegas was already out of it.

The Raiders should struggle to keep pace with the Bears.

NFL Week 4 best bets: Player props

Barkley under 83.5 rushing yards (-110): Fading the reigning Offensive Player of the Year is risky business, but this is the time to do it.

  • The Buccaneers have held 11 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards.
  • In that span, the Bucs have limited their opponents to a measly 3.3 yards per carry.
  • Tampa’s defence ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate, per RBSDM.com.

Vita Vea is the ultimate run stopper, and Barkley has struggled to get things going on the ground this year anyway.

He is averaging 64.6 rushing yards per game at 3.3 YPC and is 1-2 against this line.

Williams over 235.5 passing yards (-114): Williams is coming off a career performance, completing 19-of-28 passes for 298 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over the Cowboys.

There’s no excuse for Williams to take a step back against the Raiders on Sunday.

Vegas’ defence ranks 27th in EPA per pass and has let two of three opposing QBs clear this total. The outlier was Washington Commanders backup Marcus Mariota, but he still put up 207 yards on 15-of-21 passing.

Rome Odunze looks like a stud, and DJ Moore still has WR1 upside. That duo should terrorize Pete Carroll’s secondary.

NFL Week 4 best bets made at 1:09 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

NFL Week 3 betting guide: Player prop recommendations, parlay picks and more for the 16-game slate

NFL betting guide

There’s no shortage of storylines as we enter Week 3 of the NFL season.

Week 3 at a glance: Can the Kansas City Chiefs get off the mat? A primetime matchup with the New York Giants screams “get-right” for the reigning AFC champions. The headliner is an epic Monday nighter between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens, featuring a massive 52.5 game total.

Check out our Week 3 NFL betting guide, featuring staff picks and predictions for the loaded 16-game slate.

NFL betting guide

Key storylines:

  • The AFC seems ripe for the taking. Kansas City is 0-2 for the first time with Patrick Mahomes, and it seems unlikely that the playoffs will run through Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo has a cushy schedule and should be itching to capitalize on a down year from its rival.
  • Joe Burrow is out for at least three months after undergoing toe surgery. That puts quite a damper on Cincinnati’s 2-0 start. Without their QB1, the Bengals’ Super Bowl odds have plummeted to 70-to-1.
  • Backups, backups, backups. JJ McCarrthy and Justin Fields are also out, with Jayden Daniels and Brock Purdy doubtful to play, too.
  • A playoff rematch between the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles headlines the 1 p.m. slate. Philly eked by L.A. in a blizzard last January, and Matthew Stafford’s group will certainly be looking for revenge.
  • Is it time to push the panic button in Chicago? Caleb Williams has now lost 12 of his past 13 starts, with the only win coming against the Malik Willis-led Green Bay Packers in Week 18 last year. Sunday’s matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is a pick’em.
  • Detroit and Baltimore rebounded from their Week 1 losses in style with a pair of inter-divisional beatdowns. The Lions scored 53 against the Bears, while the Ravens dropped 41 against the Cleveland Browns. Bettors should expect fireworks on Monday Night Football.

NFL betting hub

NFL Week 3 betting notes

  • New York got a vintage Russell Wilson performance last week, but can he run it back? The veteran signal caller is 1-5 against KC since leaving the Seattle Seahawks, throwing for just 176.6 yards per game.
  • Kansas City is 22-6 straight up following a loss in the Mahomes era. The Chiefs are also 18-1 SU against NFC teams below .500 with him under centre.
  • Just how bad can things get without Burrow? Zac Taylor is 8-22 SU without the QB since joining Cincy in 2019. The Bengals have also averaged fewer than 20 points in the 14 games Burrow has missed with an injury.
  • The Packers are 17-6 against the spread in September since Matt LaFleur took over as head coach. Green Bay has covered both games this season by an average of 9.5 points.
  • J.K. Dobbins has logged roughly 50% of snaps for Denver, but he’s been the only RB on the roster to receive a carry inside the red zone. Dobbins has turned seven RZ attempts into two TDs.
  • NFL closing favourites of four-plus points are 12-0 SU this season. That means plenty of survivor pools have yet to see any serious blood.

Biggest spreads: Dolphins vs. Bills (-11.5), Packers (-8) vs. Browns, Saints vs. Seahawks (-7.5)

Highest totals: Lions vs. Ravens (52.5), Cowboys vs. Bears (50), Dolphins vs. Bills (50)

NFL betting guide: Week 3 predictions

Dolphins vs. Bills picks: Buffalo’s team total sits at an absurd 30.5 points. Avery Perri isn’t fazed by that and is taking the over. Read about why, plus get a two-leg parlay featuring Josh Allen and De’Von Achane.

Dolphins vs. Bills SGP picks: The Bills are 9-1 in their last 10 games against the Dolphins, covering a touchdown spread frequently. Jordan Horrobin is teasing Buffalo down to -6.5 in this +280 SGP, which also features props on Tua Tagovailoa and Dalton Kincaid.

Week 3 upset picks: The Detroit Lions as a +210 underdog? Yes please. The Lions are 7-10 SU as a dog since 2022, and flexed their offensive muscles with a 52-point effort last week.

Week 3 best bets: A pair of ATS wagers, one moneyline pick, and two player props are featured in our Week best bets.

ATS picks: Get ATS predictions for the entire slate, headlined by Lions vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Week 3 TD picks: Ja’Marr Chase is missing his QB1, but Spencer Closs doesn’t think that’ll matter. Read why Chase should find pay dirt, plus get another +230 play.

NFL Week 3 prop picks: Rome Odunze is breaking out as a top receiver in the NFL. See why Closs is backing the WR along with two other player props.

Broncos vs. Chargers SGP picks: This +425 parlay includes a moneyline pick and two player props. Find out how Closs is betting on Broncos quarterback Bo Nix.

Chiefs vs. Giants SNF picks: Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are 0-2 to start the season, but Closs believes the QB is in for a huge night. Get that, plus one more pick for Sunday Night Football.

Chiefs vs. Giants SNF SGP picks: Are you a fan of offence? Closs shares his +390 SGP for Sunday night that features two overs for Travis Kelce and Wan’Dale Robinson.

Chiefs vs. Giants SNF TD picks: Isiah Pacheco hasn’t produced much at all for the Chiefs yet, but as long as the opportunities continue to come, he’ll be at least an interesting play on the anytime touchdown market.

Lions vs. Ravens MNF picks: Are the Ravens getting too much respect? Steven Psihogios thinks so. He’s backing the Lions ATS and has two other wagers (including a Rashod Bateman prop) for Monday.

We’ll release more NFL predictions throughout the week. Here’s what you can expect for Week 3.

Sept. 21

Lions vs. Ravens MNF SGP picks

NFL Week 3 matchups

Thursday Night Football (Sept. 18)

  • Dolphins vs. Bills (8:15 p.m. ET)

Bet on Week 3 NFL action

Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET slate

  • Falcons vs. Panthers | Bengals vs. Vikings | Packers vs. Browns
  • Colts vs. Titans | Raiders vs. Commanders | Rams vs. Eagles
  • Texans vs. Jaguars | Jets vs. Buccaneers | Steelers vs. Patriots

Sunday, Sept. 21: 4 p.m. ET slate

  • Broncos vs. Chargers | Saints vs. Seahawks
  • Cardinals vs. 49ers | Cowboys vs. Bears

Sunday Night Football

  • Chiefs vs. Giants (8:20 p.m. ET)

Monday Night Football (Sept. 22)

  • Lions vs. Ravens (8:15 p.m. ET)

NFL Week 3 staff best bets: Bet on Packers to destroy Browns, Bijan Robinson to rumble

NFL Week 3 best bets

Our staff’s Week 3 best bet recommendations feature a pair of ATS picks, one moneyline wager and two prop bets.

The Week 3 narrative: The Green Bay Packers have looked unstoppable so far, and travel to Cleveland for a date with the downtrodden Browns. They’re one of two teams we’re backing as touchdown-plus favourites. On the prop market, Bijan Robinson should run over the Carolina Panthers.

Check out our NFL Week 3 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring predictions on quarterbacks Cam Ward and Caleb Williams.

NFL Week 3 best bets

These NFL Week 3 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin, Avery Perri and Chris Toman.

ATS picks

Buccaneers -7 (-113): The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t covered this number yet, but they’re is 2-0 ATS with a pair of hard-fought road victories. The journey to a fifth consecutive division title is off to a great start.

As for the New York Jets, last week’s 30-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills was a bitter reality check.

New York will play on the road for the first time, and they’ll have to do so without quarterback Justin Fields, who suffered a concussion last Sunday.

Fields’ backup, Tyrod Taylor, last made a road start for the Giants (at Buffalo) in 2023. His team scored nine points in a loss.

Last season, the Jets went 1-5 ATS as underdogs, per Team Rankings.

-Horrobin

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Packers -7.5 (-112): Green Bay has begun this season in as impressive a fashion as possible. Opening with the Lions and Commanders — two teams that went 27-7 in the regular season last year — the Packers earned a pair of multi-score wins at home.

Hitting the road poses a new challenge, but a feeble Browns team awaits.

Cleveland has lost nine of its past 10 games dating back to last year, going 2-8 vs. a +7.5 spread.

The Packers are 8-5 ATS as favourites since the start of the 2024 season.

-Horrobin

Best moneyline bet

Steelers moneyline (-118): Aaron Rodgers looked rough in Week 2, as the Steelers were downed by two scores at home by the Seattle Seahawks.

Pittsburgh had an unlucky self-tipped goal-line interception and a fluky defensive touchdown after failing to recover a kickoff in its own end zone.

Clean up those mistakes, and it’s a much different ballgame.

New England isn’t a good football team, going 2-7 at home since the start of last season. The Patriots rank 25th so far in pass block win rate, so I expect T.J. Watt and Co. to make Drake Maye’s life miserable.

-Perri

NFL Week 3 best bets: Player props

Bijan Robinson over 83.5 rushing yards (-112): Robinson exploded on Sunday Night Football last week, turning 22 carries into 143 yards against the Minnesota Vikings.

I expect another huge performance in Carolina.

The Panthers’ defence ranked last in rushing yards per game (179.8), EPA per rush, and rush success rate last season, per RBSDM.com.

And through two games so far, it has allowed 282 rushing yards (seventh-most). Travis Etienne Jr. smashed this number in Week 1 with 143 yards on 16 carries.

Robinson averaged 132.5 rushing yards against Carolina last year, going 2-0 against this line.

-Perri

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Quarterback player prop picks

Cam Ward over 202.5 passing yards (-113): Ward hasn’t eclipsed this number yet, but should have enough time in the pocket to find receivers on Sunday.

The Indianapolis Colts rank last in pass rush win rate so far (19%) and sacked Bo Nix zero times in last week’s thriller.

Ward has averaged 30.5 passing attempts per game, which is a healthy volume. He’s only converting those at a 50.8% clip, and I have to believe some positive regression is coming.

Tyler Lockett and Calvin Ridley are a solid 1-2 receiving duo, and Indy’s top corner, Charvarius Ward, might not be at 100% returning from a concussion.

-Perri

Caleb Williams over 27.5 rushing yards (-113): Williams’ Chicago Bears get the Dallas Cowboys, who allowed the most touchdowns and rushing yards per game to quarterbacks last season (per StatMuse).

Williams showed off his legs in Week 1, running for 58 yards on an average of 9.7 yards per carry, and he scored his first career rushing TD. 

His Week 2 production dipped but was still solid. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and managed 27 yards in a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions. 

Detroit played comfortably ahead, so a better game script would have probably led to even greater Week 2 numbers. That’s what I expect Sunday vs. the Cowboys, a game that’s hovered in pick’em territory.

  • Russell Wilson reeled off 7.3 yards per carry against the Cowboys last week, but only rushed three times. In Week 1, Jalen Hurts shredded Dallas: 14 carries, 62 yards, two touchdowns. 
  • Williams, meanwhile, rushed for 27+ yards in six of his final eight games as a rookie. 

He has both floor and upside, rushing for 40-plus yards five times in his 19-game career, and averaging 30-plus yards/game.

On top of that, RB1 D’Andre Swift has been limited in practice this week with a quadriceps issue.

-Toman

NFL Week 3 best bets made at 11:06 a.m. ET on 09/18/2025.

NFL Week 3 Beat the Spread staff predictions: ATS picks on the 16-game slate

NFL ATS picks

Another week, another loaded 16-game NFL slate for bettors to tackle. Our staff has against-the-spread predictions for every game.

The Week 3 narrative: There are some big-time matchups on deck. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams in a playoff rematch, while the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers battle for an early-season AFC West lead. A Monday-nighter between the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens caps it all off, and four of our five writers like the Lions to cover as road dogs.

Check out our staff’s Week 3 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.

NFL ATS picks: Week 3

NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman, and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 3 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.

NFL odds as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 18, 2025.

Thursday Night Football pick

Dolphins vs. Bills (Thursday, Sept. 18: 8:15 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Bills -12
Horrobin says: This should be a laugher, as the spread indicates. Miami has an AFC-worst point differential (-31) after losing as a home favourite last week. Since the 2022 season began, the Bills are 26-4 at home with a 12.5-point average victory margin. Buffalo also went 3-1 ATS vs. Miami over the previous two years.

Staff picks: Perri (BUF) | Horrobin (BUF) | Closs (MIA) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)

NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate

Falcons vs. Panthers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Falcons -5.5
Perri says: Carolina looks bad … again. Bryce Young has completed just 58.9% of passes, and the squad is averaging a meagre 3.7 yards per carry (eighth-lowest in the NFL). The Falcons should lean heavily on Bijan Robinson in this matchup, as the RB averaged 132.5 rushing yards against the Panthers last year. Carolina has a -8.3 margin of victory at home since the start of the 2023 season.

Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin (CAR) | Closs (ATL) | Toman (ATL) | Psihogios (ATL)

Bengals vs. Vikings (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -3
Perri says: No Joe Burrow, no dice. Cincinnati barely managed to beat the Jaguars with Jake Browning (241 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INT) thanks to some questionable refereeing down the stretch. Jacksonville’s defence is sieve-like, and Minnesota’s unit should present a much tougher challenge. I also trust Kevin O’Connell to draw up a solid game plan for Carson Wentz.

Staff picks: Perri (MIN) | Horrobin (CIN) | Closs (MIN) | Toman (CIN) | Psihogios (CIN)

Packers vs. Browns (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Packers -8
Horrobin says: Green Bay dusted two playoff-calibre foes, the Lions and Commanders, in Weeks 1 and 2. I have all the confidence in the world that the Packers can make light work of the Browns. Cleveland is 2-8 vs. a +7.5 spread in its past 10 games and ranks 30th in offensive EPA per play so far this year. Green Bay is 8-5 ATS as favourites since the start of the ’24 campaign.

Staff picks: Perri (GB) | Horrobin (GB) | Closs (GB) | Toman (GB) | Psihogios (GB)

Texans vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Jaguars -2
Toman says: The Jaguars have had the easier schedule, but they’ve also been the better team. And they’ve generated offence, something the Texans have struggled to do in back-to-back weeks. The warning signs were there for quarterback C.J. Stroud last season, and he’s done little to quiet skeptics early on with a not-so-great receiving group. Nick Chubb isn’t running the ball well, and Jacksonville has done well against the run. It’s hard for me to get behind the Texans until further notice.

Staff picks: Perri (HOU) | Horrobin (HOU) | Closs (HOU) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (HOU)

Bet on NFL Week 3

Colts vs. Titans (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Colts -4
Perri says: Cam Ward will win his first NFL game on Sunday. Book it. The Colts’ defence hasn’t been great so far, ranking last in pass rush win rate and 27th in EPA per rush. Ward should have time to throw, and Tony Pollard, who is fourth in the NFL in rushing, should be decent on the ground. I’m still not sold on Daniel Jones after two solid starts. He was a mess in New York and will regress sooner than later.

Staff picks: Perri (TEN) | Horrobin (IND) | Closs (TEN) | Toman (IND) | Psihogios (TEN)

Raiders vs. Commanders (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Commanders -3.5
Closs says: Let’s focus on Washington’s Week 1 battering of the Giants. The Commanders held Russell Wilson and New York to six points in a 21-6 win. In Week 2, the Giants scored 37 points in a thriller vs. Dallas. It’s clear Washington’s defence is very good and the Raiders haven’t shown much through two games. Vegas has combined to score 29 points and was held to nine points last Monday against the Chargers. I’ll side with the better team at home.

Staff picks: Perri (LV) | Horrobin (LV) | Closs (WSH) | Toman (LV) | Psihogios (WSH)

Rams vs. Eagles (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -3.5
Horrobin says: Before Philadelphia stormed to a Super Bowl victory, the team was nearly stopped by Los Angeles in a snowy divisional round game. The Rams went 5-6 SU as underdogs last year and have won their first two games of 2025 by a combined 19 points. Philly’s first two wins of the season came by just seven total points.

Staff picks: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (LAR) | Closs (LAR) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (PHI)

Jets vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Buccaneers -6.5
Horrobin says: Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS so far, gutting out a pair of solid road wins. The Jets’ offence got rolling in Week 1 before taking a step back last week, and now Justin Fields (concussion) will sit out. New York went 1-5 ATS as an underdog last year, and that trend should continue with Tyrod Taylor under centre.

Staff picks: Perri (TB) | Horrobin (TB) | Closs (TB) | Toman (TB) | Psihogios (NYJ)

Steelers vs. Patriots (Sunday, Sept. 21: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Steelers -1.5
Perri says: Pittsburgh lost by two scores to the Seahawks last week after making a series of costly mental errors. The Steelers’ defence has been horrible, but I’m hoping some key returnees (Joey Porter Jr., Derrick Harmon) get them sorted. New England is 3-5-1 ATS at home since the start of last season, losing those games by an average of 7.2 points.

Staff picks: Perri (PIT) | Horrobin (PIT) | Closs (NE) | Toman (NE) | Psihogios (NE)

NFL 4 p.m. slate

Broncos vs. Chargers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:05 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Chargers -2.5
Closs says: The Chargers have been impressive through two weeks. They beat the Chiefs to open the season and then shut down the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Justin Herbert has thrown for 506 yards, five TDs with no INTs. His 127.8 passer rating ranks second in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson and far outpaces Bo Nix’s 82.0 passer rating. At this point, the Chargers have the better offence and defence, plus they play at home this weekend. There’s too much working in favour of L.A. to overlook.

Staff picks: Perri (DEN) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (LAC) | Psihogios (LAC)

Place your bets on the 4 p.m. NFL slate

Saints vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:05 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Seahawks -7.5
Closs says: I have little to no faith in the Saints with Spencer Rattler under centre. Even his best game (207 yards, three TDs, no INTs) wasn’t enough for the Saints to beat an injury-riddled 49ers squad in Week 2. Seattle’s defence has yet to give up more than 17 points in a game, and I can’t see that changing vs. the lowly Saints. New Orleans is 0-2, losing each game by 5 or more points, and has yet to play on the road.

Staff picks: Perri (SEA) | Horrobin (SEA) | Closs (SEA) | Toman (NO) | Psihogios (NO)

Cardinals vs. 49ers (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:25 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: 49ers -2.5
Perri says: At the time of writing, Brock Purdy is questionable to start on Sunday. But even if he’s out, I think the Niners should win and cover. The defence is healthy and buzzing under Robert Salah, giving up 17 PPG and ranking fourth in EPA per play. If Mac Jones stays on script, he can lead the offence to another strong outing.

Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin (SF) | Closs (SF) | Toman (ARI) | Psihogios (ARI)

Cowboys vs. Bears (Sunday, Sept. 21: 4:25 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Cowboys -0.5
Toman says: This has shootout written all over it, and I’m backing the home side in what already feels like a must-win game. The Bears got blasted by Detroit in Week 2 and risk an 0-3 start that would essentially sink them. But the Cowboys are vulnerable defensively and let the Giants hang 21 fourth-quarter points on them in Week 2, needing overtime to escape with a win. Russell Wilson threw for 450 yards — that doesn’t inspire confidence. Caleb Williams should have a field day. 

Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (DAL) | Closs (CHI) | Toman (CHI) | Psihogios (DAL)

Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks

Chiefs vs. Giants (Sunday, Sept. 21: 8:20 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Chiefs -6
Closs says: It doesn’t feel great betting against the Chiefs, but there’s no reason to get behind a number this high. New York’s offence looked a lot better in Week 2, scoring 37 points behind 450 yards and three TD passes from Wilson. The Chiefs are 0-2 and have yet to score more than 21 points in a game. Even last season, when Kansas City went 15-2, the side went 8-9 ATS. The Chiefs should win this game, but I expect the Giants to keep it within a touchdown.

Staff picks: Perri (KC) | Horrobin (NYG) | Closs (NYG) | Toman (KC) | Psihogios (NYG)

Bet on Sunday Night Football

Lions vs. Ravens (Monday, Sept. 22: 8:15 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Ravens -5.0
Horrobin says: It’s a rarity to be able to bank points with Detroit, a team that was only an underdog twice last year. The Lions flopped in Week 1 (at Green Bay), but they got right with a blowout win last Sunday (vs. Chicago). Detroit is 7-10 SU as an underdog since 2022, and this squad is still far too dangerous to be getting this many points.

Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin (DET) | Closs (DET) | Toman (DET) | Psihogios (DET)

NFL ATS picks: Week 2 + season records: Toman: 7-9 (17-15) | Perri: 7-9 (16-16) | Horrobin: 6-10 (14-18) | Psihogios: 5-11 (13-19) | Closs: 7-9 (13-19)

NFL Week 2 betting guide: Player prop recommendations, parlay picks and more for the 16-game slate

NFL betting guide

One down… 17 more to go! The NFL season heads into its second week with a handful of Grade-A matchups for bettors to target.

Week 2 at a glance: A Super Bowl rematch between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium headlines the slate. Elsewhere, Aaron Rodgers makes his Pittsburgh Steelers home debut, and the Minnesota Vikings are back in primetime for the second straight week.

Check out our Week 2 NFL betting guide, featuring staff picks and predictions for the loaded 16-game slate.

NFL betting guide

Key storylines:

  • Kansas City’s three-peat hopes were squashed by Philadelphia last season in a blowout of epic proportions. The Chiefs lost their season-opener and now have a gut-check moment at home against the defending champs. Philly is a 1.5-point road favourite as of Thursday morning.

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  • The Green Bay Packers put the NFL on notice, blowing out the Detroit Lions in Week 1. The Micah Parsons-led defence held Detroit to 246 yards and zero touchdowns outside of garbage time.
  • Rodgers still has it, huh? The four-time MVP dazzled in his Steelers debut, throwing for 244 yards and four touchdowns in a win. Now, he’ll be tasked with dissecting a strong Seattle Seahawks defence at Acrisure Stadium.
  • Justin Fields went blow-for-blow with Rodgers in his New York Jets debut, scoring three total touchdowns with a 119.1 passer rating. Now he’ll have a chance to pull off an upset against the Buffalo Bills, who allowed 40 points in Week 1.
  • Speaking of the Bills, they authored an epic 16-point comeback behind Josh Allen at Highmark Stadium last week to leave the Baltimore Ravens stunned. The result? Buffalo is atop the Super Bowl odds board and Allen is favoured to win MVP.
  • There will be no quarterback change for the New York Giants… yet. Russell Wilson looked immobile and inaccurate in a 21-6 loss to the Washington Commanders, but head coach Brian Daboll is sticking with him in Week 2. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is waiting in the wings, though.

NFL betting hub

NFL Week 2 betting notes

  • Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals barely won their opener and failed to cover. Cincinnati is now 2-9 straight up and 3-8 against the spread in Weeks 1 and 2 with Burrow under centre. The Bengals are a slight favourite over the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0).
  • Are shortened preseasons to blame for a lack of offence? Unders went 12-4 in Week 1 with an average of just 41.3 points per game. Ten games this week have a total set at or above 44 points.
  • Since 2005, teams that lost in Week 1 and are underdogs in Week 2 have gone a stellar 101-75-4 (57%), according to Bet Labs.
  • Kansas City falls into that category. The Chiefs are 22-5 SU following a loss and 12-2-1 ATS as an underdog with Patrick Mahomes.
  • Jared Goff and the Lions have won and covered in 10 straight games following a loss dating back to November 2022. They’re favoured at home against the Bears this week.

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  • Dak Prescott has won 13 straight games against the Giants, and has a career 10-5 ATS record against his divisional foes.
  • Who will step up for KC with Xavier Worthy (shoulder) injured and Rashee Rice suspended? Marquise “Hollywood” Brown caught 10 of a league-high 16 targets in Week 1. He should have a healthy workload against the Eagles.

Biggest spreads: Browns vs. Ravens (-11.5), Panthers vs. Cardinals (-6.5), Bills (-6.5) vs. Jets

Highest totals: Jaguars vs. Bengals (49), Commanders vs. Packers (48.5), Bears vs. Lions (47)

NFL betting guide: Week 2 predictions

NFL Week 2 prop picks: The Seahawks’ backfield could be a true timeshare situation, but Zach Charbonnet was the better half in Week 1. Find out what Perri expects of him this Sunday, along with predictions on Marvin Harrison Jr. and Travis Hunter.

NFL Week 2 ATS picks: Get ATS predictions for the entire slate, headlined by Eagles vs. Chiefs in a Super Bowl rematch on Sunday afternoon.

NFL Week 2 upset picks: No team looked worse than the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, yet they’re favoured this coming Sunday. Perri is fading them and also has his eyes set on a +175 underdog.

NFL Week 2 best bets: Any Justin Fields truthers out there? One of his prop markets is featured in our staff picks, along with an ATS bet on the Bengals. All in, there are three ATS plays, two player props and a moneyline prediction.

NFL Week 2 TD picks: Tee Higgins was a red zone monster last year, and he faces one of the worst secondaries in football. Read more about his matchup, and find two other players with value north of 2-to-1 to score.

Bills vs. Jets SGP picks: If you’re a fan of strong receiver play, this parlay from Closs is for you. His +375 ticket features prop bets on Keon Coleman and Garrett Wilson.

Eagles vs. Chiefs SGP picks: Perri is keen on backing Mahomes as an underdog and is teasing the Chiefs up a few points for safety. His +300 SGP also features wide receivers Hollywood Brown and DeVonta Smith.

Falcons vs. Vikings picks: It took a while, but Justin Jefferson and J.J. McCarthy eventually clicked in their first game today. Jefferson is Horrobin’s primary target for his Sunday Night Football best bet, along with a prediction on the game total.

Buccaneers vs. Texans picks: C.J. Stroud has been much better at home than on the road in his young career, and that trend will be put to the test again in prime time. After a 14-9 road loss to the Rams last week, Stroud’s Texans are favoured over the four-time reigning NFC South champion Buccaneers.

Falcons vs. Vikings SGP picks: Bijan Robinson had 100 yards receiving in Week 1, but Closs is backing him on the ground on Sunday Night Football. His +310 SGP features the star running back and quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

Chargers vs. Raiders picks: Herbert and the Chargers upset the Chiefs in Brazil and now can go 2-0 in divisional games to start the season. See why Horrobin expects Herbert and L.A. to have another big showing on Monday.

Falcons vs. Vikings TD picks: Psihogios is backing a pair of top receivers on Sunday Night Football. Find out why he’s backing Justin Jefferson and Drake London.

Buccaneers vs. Texans SGP picks: This +300 SGP features a pick on quarterback C.J. Stroud. See why Closs believes the QB will lead Houston to their first win at home.

Chargers vs. Raiders SGP picks: Geno Smith threw 362 yards in his debut with Las Vegas, and Psihogios likes the veteran to have another big performance. Check out his +360 SGP for Monday Night Football.

NFL Week 2 matchups

Thursday Night Football (Sept. 11)

  • Commanders vs. Packers (8:15 p.m. ET)

Bet on Week 2 NFL action

Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET slate

  • Seahawks vs. Steelers | Rams vs. Titans | Bills vs. Jets | Bears vs. Lions | Patriots vs. Dolphins
  • Giants vs. Cowboys | Browns vs. Ravens | 49ers vs. Saints | Jaguars vs. Bengals

Sunday, Sept. 14: 4 p.m. ET slate

  • Panthers vs. Cardinals | Broncos vs. Colts | Eagles vs. Chiefs

Sunday Night Football

  • Falcons vs. Vikings (8:20 p.m. ET)

Monday Night Football doubleheader (Sept. 15)

  • Buccaneers vs. Texans (8:15 p.m. ET)
  • Chargers vs. Raiders (10:00 p.m. ET)

NFL Week 2 Beat the Spread staff predictions: ATS picks on the 16-game slate

NFL ATS picks

Another full slate of NFL action is on tap in Week 2, and our staff has against-the-spread predictions for every game.

The Week 2 narrative: Aside from the Baltimore Ravens’ hefty spread at home against the Cleveland Browns, every game this week is projected to finish within a touchdown. That includes the Super Bowl rematch in Kansas City, a matchup that sparked some disagreement among our writers.

Check out our staff’s Week 2 NFL ATS picks for predictions on every game.

NFL ATS picks: Week 2

NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman, and Steven Psihogios offer up their Week 2 NFL ATS picks for all 16 games.

NFL odds as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025.

Thursday Night Football pick

Commanders vs. Packers (Thursday, Sept. 11: 8:20 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Packers -3
Horrobin says: Green Bay bullied the NFC’s reigning No. 1 seed, the Detroit Lions, in last week’s opener. Micah Parsons is still ramping up and should be more of a factor in Week 2. In the trenches on the flip side, look for the Packers to impose their will in the ground game. Since the start of 2024, Green Bay ranks eighth in offensive EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com, while Washington is 29th in defensive EPA per rush.

Staff picks: Perri (WSH) | Horrobin (GB) | Closs (GB) | Toman (WSH) | Psihogios (WSH)

NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate

Bills vs. Jets (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Bills -6.5
Perri says: Buffalo really had no business winning in Week 1, but Josh Allen did what Josh Allen does, and the rest is history. I can’t look past Buffalo’s horrendous rush defence, which was gashed by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. New York has a similar attack and is 2-1 against Buffalo in the last three matchups at MetLife Stadium (3-0 ATS).

Staff picks: Perri (NYJ) | Horrobin (NYJ) | Closs (BUF) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)

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Bears vs. Lions (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Lions -6
Horrobin says: Caleb Williams looked less and less comfortable as Chicago’s season opener wore on, and ultimately, he couldn’t help his team maintain a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. Going to Detroit, where the Lions will be hungry to erase last week’s dud in Green Bay, I expect the home team to be at least a touchdown better than the Bears. Detroit has the NFL’s best ATS record since the start of the 2023 season (26-13-0).

Staff picks: Perri (DET) | Horrobin (DET) | Closs (CHI) | Toman (CHI) | Psihogios (DET)

Browns vs. Ravens (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Ravens -11.5
Closs says: The Browns had the chance to upset the Bengals in Week 1, but the offence failed to muster more than 16 points against what is expected to be a weak Cincinnati defence. That won’t fly against the Baltimore. The Ravens lost a heartbreaker to the Bills but scored 40 points behind 169 rushing yards from Derrick Henry. Baltimore played Cleveland in Week 18 last season and won by 25. I expect much of the same this time around.

Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin (BAL) | Closs (BAL) | Toman (BAL) | Psihogios (CLE)

Jaguars vs. Bengals (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Bengals -3.5
Perri says: Joe Burrow has never won a Week 2 game, but I expect that bizarre trend to end on Sunday. The Bengals were top-10 in total offence, scoring offence, and offensive EPA per play last year. The Jags, meanwhile, ranked last in defensive EPA per pass and beat zero playoff teams. Cincinnati is the better team and should roll at home. 

Staff picks: Perri (CIN) | Horrobin (JAX) | Closs (CIN) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (JAX)

Bet on NFL Week 2

Rams vs. Titans (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Rams -5.5
Toman says: Tennessee only managed 12 points in Week 1, but covered. The Rams only scored 14 points in Week 1, but covered. Los Angeles took down the Texans, 14-9, improving to 11-4 ATS over its last 15 games. Titans QB Cam Ward had a difficult task in his first NFL game against the Broncos’ elite defence, and his home debut should present similar challenges.

Staff picks: Perri (TEN) | Horrobin (TEN) | Closs (TEN) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (TEN)

Patriots vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Dolphins -1
Toman says: These teams combined for 21 points in Week 1. The Dolphins turned in probably the worst performance of the week, with a nonexistent passing game behind Tua Tagovailoa. Looking for positives? De’Von Achane ran the ball well in limited opportunities, and Miami returns home to face a Patriots team that got carved up through the air last Sunday. Give me the home side.

Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (MIA) | Closs (MIA) | Toman (MIA) | Psihogios (NE)

Giants vs. Cowboys (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Cowboys -5.5
Closs says: Russell Wilson completed 45.9% of his passes (17/37) for 168 yards en route to six points for the Giants in Week 1. The Cowboys almost stole a win over Philadelphia last Thursday and get a worse opponent in Week 2 at home, where Dak Prescott is 43-18 in his career. I think Dallas easily covers a touchdown.

Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (DAL) | Closs (DAL) | Toman (DAL) | Psihogios (DAL)

49ers vs. Saints (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: 49ers -3
Perri says: San Francisco is already dealing with some substantial injuries, with Brock Purdy doubtful and George Kittle out. That means we’re likely getting a Mac Jones vs. Spencer Rattler showdown. Yikes. In this case, I’ll back the home underdog to keep things close. New Orleans’ rush defence was excellent in Week 1, and I’m hoping it can bottle up Christian McCaffrey.

Staff picks: Perri (NO) | Horrobin (NO) | Closs (NO) | Toman (NO) | Psihogios (NO)

Seahawks vs. Steelers (Sunday, Sept. 14: 1 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Steelers -3
Perri says: Aaron Rodgers was slinging it in his Steelers debut, throwing for 244 yards and four TDs. His 136.7 passer rating was the best from a Pittsburgh QB since 2017. At home, I expect him to keep the ball moving against Seattle. I can’t say the same for Sam Darnold, whose offence generated just 230 total yards against San Fran last week.

Staff picks: Perri (PIT) | Horrobin (PIT) | Closs (PIT) | Toman (SEA) | Psihogios (PIT)

NFL 4 p.m. slate

Panthers vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Sept. 14: 4:05 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Cardinals -6.5
Horrobin says: Even with a garbage-time score, Bryce Young’s stat line in Week 1 (18 of 35, 154 yards, one TD and two INTs) was hideous. He’ll be on the road again this week, and I have no faith in a better result. Arizona, which covered this number in its season-opening win, is 11-6 ATS at home since the start of last year.

Staff picks: Perri (ARI) | Horrobin (ARI) | Closs (ARI) | Toman (ARI) | Psihogios (CAR)

Place your bets on the 4 p.m. NFL slate

Broncos vs. Colts (Sunday, Sept. 14: 4:05 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Broncos -1.5
Horrobin says: Bo Nix threw three interceptions in last year’s Week 15 matchup against the Colts … and the Broncos still won by 18 points. I’m not letting one strong showing from Daniel Jones steer me away from a Broncos squad that excelled on both sides of the ball last year. Since the start of the 2024 season, Denver is 9-0 SU as a favourite and has covered this number each time.

Staff picks: Perri (DEN) | Horrobin (DEN) | Closs (DEN) | Toman (DEN) | Psihogios (DEN)

Eagles vs. Chiefs (Sunday, Sept. 14: 4:25 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Eagles -1.5
Horrobin says: Philadelphia dominated KC in the Super Bowl six months ago (40-22 final), and I don’t think the reigning champs could roll again in the rematch. Neither team was at its best in Week 1, but at least Philly scratched out a win while Kansas City lost as a 3-point favourite. The Eagles have an extra day of rest, and Xavier Worthy is at serious risk of missing this game.

Staff picks: Perri (KC) | Horrobin (PHI) | Closs (PHI) | Toman (KC) | Psihogios (PHI)

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Sunday and Monday Night NFL ATS picks

Falcons vs. Vikings (Sunday, Sept. 14: 8:20 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -3.5
Perri says: J.J. McCarthy came through when it mattered on Monday, but it was really Chicago that threw the game away. I like Atlanta’s roster and trust Micahel Penix Jr. to keep things close on the road. The Vikings are missing some offensive firepower, so I think a field goal plus a hook is fairly safe.

Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin (MIN) | Closs (ATL) | Toman (ATL) | Psihogios (ATL)

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Buccaneers vs. Texans (Monday, Sept. 15: 7 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Texans -2.5
Toman says: C.J. Stroud closed out last season on a rough note and he picked up where he left off in Week 1. It was an ugly start for Stroud and the Texans, who continue to be levelled by injuries. I can’t get behind this team as a favourite against anyone good. The Bucs pulled off an impressive win on the road in Week 1 and I like them to do it again on Monday night.

Staff picks: Perri (TB) | Horrobin (TB) | Closs (HOU) | Toman (TB) | Psihogios (HOU)

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Chargers vs Raiders (Monday, Sept. 15: 10 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Chargers -3.5
Closs says: I’m high on Los Angeles after its win against the Chiefs in Brazil. Justin Herbert looked elite, passing for 318 yards and three TDs. Plus, the defence held Kansas City to 21 points. The Raiders beat the Patriots by a touchdown in Week 1 but looked average at best. They should be comfortably outmatched at almost every position in Week 2.

Staff picks: Perri (LAC) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (LAC) | Psihogios (LV)

NFL ATS picks, Week 1: Toman: 10-6 | Perri: 9-7 | Horrobin: 8-8 | Psihogios: 8-8 | Closs: 6-10