Staff

The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots play for the Lombardi Trophy this Sunday in Super Bowl 60.

Super Bowl 60 narrative: Good teams win, and great teams cover. So it’s no surprise that the teams playing in this year’s Super Bowl have been elite against the spread. Seattle is a league-best 14-5-0 with New England right behind at 13-6-1. The Seahawks are laying 4.5 points as of Thursday afternoon.

Embed: #122861

Check out our staff’s Super Bowl ATS predictions for the game on Feb. 8, 2026.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NFL

Super Bowl ATS predictions

NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman offer up their Super Bowl ATS predictions for Sunday’s game.

NFL odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026.

Seahawks vs. Patriots against the spread prediction

Seahawks vs. Patriots (Sunday, Feb. 8: 6:30 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -4.5
Perri says: Seattle is a cut above New England, in my opinion.

The Seahawks played in the league’s hardest division and led the NFL in point differential (+191). They also went 12-4-0 ATS as a favourite this year, winning those games by an average of 13.9 points.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Kenneth Walker III are better than any skill player on New England’s roster, and that duo helped Seattle put up 72 points in two playoff games.

The great equalizer is always the quarterback, and Drake Maye undoubtedly had a better regular season than Sam Darnold. But it’s been a different story in the playoffs.

• Maye: 55.8% comp. rate, 5 total TDs, 5 TOs, 5.0 sacks/game, 84.0 quarterback rating
• Darnold: 69.8% comp. rate, 4 total TDs, 0 TOs, 2.5 sacks/game, 122.4 quarterback rating

Simply put, the MVP finalist hasn’t been any good.

Seattle’s defence ranked No. 1 in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play this year. I expect Mike Macdonald to dial it up and rattle Maye from the get-go.

Super Bowl LX ATS pick

Horrobin says: I want to parrot a lot of what Avery said, but I’ll try to do some of my own homework here instead of copying his.

It’s easy to build a case for either team, given that they’re both conference winners. But I’m less confident in New England’s case holding up.

The Patriots had the easiest schedule in the NFL, at least according to three very reputable resources (Pro Football Reference, ESPN’s Football Power Index and Warren Sharp).

New England hasn’t been tested much. Playing Jarrett Stidham in the AFC championship game helps, but it’s more than that. The Pats haven’t even trailed at halftime since Week 3.

-> Full Seahawks vs. Patriots betting markets. Bet now!

Look, the Patriots can only play who’s in front of them. And they largely dominated. But the Seahawks were more dominant while playing in a tougher division. And Seattle enters on a nine-game win streak (four-game ATS win streak).

Seattle’s league-best +191 point differential, as mentioned by Avery, was three touchdowns better than New England’s AFC-best mark.

Sam Darnold is 11-5 ATS in his career when favoured by 4+ points, according to Action Network, and he has the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defence backing him up.

This will be a test unlike any the Patriots have seen, and I think the Seahawks are built to win this by a touchdown or more.

Super Bowl against the spread pick

Toman says: Seattle is a different beast and has earned the right to be viewed as the best team in the NFL. But here’s why I like the Patriots at this number:

• The Pats have allowed 10 points or fewer in four of their past five games. While they haven’t played the most daunting offences over that stretch, that does include three playoff games.

• Over those three playoff matches, they’ve allowed 26 points.

• They’ve covered this number in all but two games this season.

Favourable conditions assisted the defence in their last two victories. Poor weather and the absence of key players (Bo Nix, Nico Collins) limited the offensive upside of both the Broncos and Texans.

But the Pats managed to do enough against great defences to come away victorious. They’ll have to do it again against another top-tier unit, but New England has demonstrated it can clamp down, too.

I’m also not discounting how the weather affected Drake Maye. The MVP contender will have the opportunity to run the offence in much better conditions after some subpar playoff performances.

Maye has remained mobile for the most part and will be able to incorporate the pass more this Sunday. He only had 21 attempts in New England’s snowy conference championship win over Denver, while also rushing 10 times for 65 yards. 

While maybe not at the same level as the Rams and Matthew Stafford (374 yards, three TDs), Maye should be able to hurt the Seahawks through the air. Pair that with a strong defence, and I believe the Pats keep this close.

Staff picks: Perri (SEA) | Horrobin (SEA) | Toman (NE)

-> Bet on the Super Bowl: Props, SGPs & more

Embed: #122861

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

The Super Bowl is approaching, and it’s not too early for bettors to put down some action.

Super Bowl 60 narrative: The Seattle Seahawks are 4.5-point favourites over the New England Patriots as of Thursday morning. Both teams led their respective conferences in ATS percentage and point differential, setting up what should be a tight game at Levi’s Stadium.

Check out our Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl 60 best bets on Feb. 8, 2026, featuring a prop pick on Seattle running back George Holani.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Super Bowl 60 best bets

Super Bowl 60 best bets were written by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Jordan Horrobin.

Seahawks -4.5 (-110): Betting against the Patriots in the Super Bowl just feels sketchy.

Images of Tom Brady marching down the field are seared into my brain. So, too, is Malcolm Butler’s championship-winning interception against Seattle years ago.

But if you take a step back and imagine these teams in different uniforms, backing the favourite is a no-brainer.

• Seattle has the best ATS record (14-6-0) in the NFL. It is 12-4-0 ATS as a favourite, winning those games by an average of 13.9 points.

• The Seahawks led the league in point differential (+191) and have scored 72 points in two playoff matchups.

• Seattle had the fourth-hardest strength of schedule, and New England had the easiest strength of schedule, per Team Rankings.

People will say the SoS metric has been beaten to death. I think it highlights how impressive Seattle’s season was, more than anything else. The Seahawks routinely demolished the best of the best.

-> At NorthStar Bets: Full betting markets for the Super Bowl

And I’m not overly-impressed by New England’s playoff run.

The Patriots’ defence has been lights out, but look at who they faced: Justin Herbert without an offensive line, an inconsistent C.J. Stroud, and Jarrett Stidham, a career backup who hadn’t attempted a pass since 2023.

Drake Maye outlasted that trio but looked shaky at best.

• 55.8 completion percentage
• 5.0 sacks per game
• 84.0 quarterback rating

That quarterback rating would have ranked 37th in the regular season, right behind Geno Smith. Seattle’s elite defence should keep giving him trouble.

So if you’re worried about betting against New England, don’t be. These Pats aren’t those Pats.

I expect the Seahawks to avenge their Super Bowl XLIX loss in style.

-Perri

Embed: #123006

Seahawks vs. Patriots NFL prop predictions

Holani over 9.5 receiving yards (-121): Holani appeared out of nowhere in the Seahawks’ time of need, springing from injured reserve to replace the injured Zach Charbonnet for the NFC championship game.

After seven weeks on the shelf, it was anyone’s guess what Holani’s workload would be against the Rams. But the results seem telling.

The second-year, undrafted tailback received seven of Seattle’s 30 RB opportunities (three carries, four targets). He caught three passes for 27 yards, adding four yards as a runner.

-> Bet on Super Bowl 60 player props now!

Kenneth Walker will see the lion’s share of Seattle’s backfield work, but he can’t do it all himself. His 23 touches in the NFC title game were the high-water mark of his season, as was his 63% snap share.

There will be some scraps for Holani, and they should primarily come in passing situations. Walker is known as a subpar pass-blocker, which helps explain why Holani was on the field for a lot of third downs — leading to a 34% snap share.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Holani garner four or so targets again, and if he does, this should be a breeze.

–Horrobin

Super Bowl defensive prop pick

DeMarcus Lawrence to record a sack (+132): New England’s pass protection was iffy all season and has gotten exposed in the playoffs.

• The Patriots allowed pressure on 21.5% of passing plays during the regular season, per Pro Football Reference. That ranked 16th in the NFL.

• As a result, Maye took the ninth-most sacks in the NFL (47).

And remember, that was against the easiest strength of schedule.

-> Check out the latest betting lines for Super Bowl LX

Maye has been running for his life this postseason, taking 15 sacks in three games against a trio of elite defences (Chargers, Texans, Broncos).

Defensively-minded Mike Macdonald will have two weeks to scheme pressure against Maye using that game tape, and should deliver.

Lawrence, the veteran EDGE, has a sack in each playoff game and ranked 15th in pass rush win rate this year (14%), per ESPN.

While Lawrence is my top pick to record a sack, I like the value on Leonard Williams (+133) and Byron Murphy II (+175) as well.

-Perri

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

The Super Bowl will be here before you know it, and now it’s time to sort out which teams will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy.

NFL conference championship narrative: Bo Nix’s injury puts the Denver Broncos in rarified air as the largest home underdogs in a conference championship game since the 1970 merger. Later on, the Los Angeles Rams look to get to the Super Bowl the hard way with their third road matchup in as many weeks.

Check out our NFL best bets for the 2026 AFC and NFC conference championship playoff games, featuring prop predictions on RJ Harvey, Sam Darnold and Colby Parkinson.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

NFL best bets

NFL best bets were written by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman.

Seahawks -2.5 (-105): The Seahawks and Rams split their season series, 1-1, with both teams winning at home in games decided by less than a field goal.

For Act III, I like Seattle to cover while continuing its dominant late-season stretch.

• A 21-19 loss in L.A. — in which Sam Darnold threw four interceptions — is Seattle’s only defeat since Week 6.

• Seattle has covered a -2.5 spread in 13 of 17 games this season. Also, the Seahawks are 11-4-0 ATS as favourites, per Team Rankings.

-> At NorthStar Bets: Full betting markets for the NFL playoffs

It’s also worth noting that the Rams and Seahawks have had vastly different experiences in the playoffs.

L.A. scraped by in a pair of road games in the eastern and central time zones, beating the Panthers and Bears by a field goal apiece (0-2 ATS).

Seattle, meanwhile, rested during the wild-card round and then torched the 49ers, 41-6, at home last Saturday.

With an extra day of rest, no travel, and the NFL’s best point differential, give me the Seahawks by three at home.

-Horrobin

Embed: #122907

NFL playoff prop predictions

Parkinson over 21.5 receiving yards (-112): Puka Nacua will dominate targets, but several Rams can benefit from quarterback Matthew Stafford’s passing volume. 

Stafford has attempted 42 passes in back-to-back playoff games and hit the 40-mark in four of his last five contests. That includes Week 16 vs. the Seahawks when he attempted a season-high 49 passes.

-> Bet on NFL playoff props now!

• Parkinson is getting targeted plenty and has come up big for the Rams, scoring nine times since Week 10.

• One of his scores came in the wild-card win over the Carolina Panthers when he caught the game-winning touchdown.

• The surging tight end was limited to a sub-50% snap share in each game through Week 8. But he’s turned into a reliable option in Los Angeles’ passing attack over the back half of the season.

Parkinson was held under this number in both meetings vs. the Seahawks (Week 11, Week 16). But Seattle isn’t a bad matchup for tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most yards in the regular season, per Pro Football Reference.

The 27-year-old is coming off a season-high-tying seven-target outing and has blown past this number repeatedly, reaching the 30-yard mark eight times in his last 11 games.

San Francisco tight end Jake Tonges (filling in for George Kittle) amassed five receptions and 59 yards on six targets in the Niners’ blowout loss to the Seahawks in the divisional round.

–Toman

NFL player prop pick: Fade Darnold vs. Rams

Darnold to throw an interception (-141): Darnold wasn’t asked to do much in last week’s blowout win, completing 12-of-17 passes for a touchdown.

I’m curious to see how the QB stacks up against a much healthier and scarier Rams defence, which has given him fits.

• Darnold threw six interceptions against L.A. this year (four in Week 11, two in Week 16).

• Last year, as a member of the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs, Darnold completely melted down against the Rams. He threw an interception while taking nine sacks in a blowout loss.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for full NFL playoff markets

It sure looks like Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula knows how to make Darnold uncomfortable.

This wager carries a hefty -141 price tag, but I’m fine playing it as a standalone.

L.A.’s defence is running hot. It picked off Caleb Williams three times last week and Bryce Young once in the wild-card round. Darnold has thrown a pick in nine of 18 games this year.

-Perri

NFL best bets: Anytime touchdown prediction

Harvey to score (+160): Everyone in Sunday’s AFC championship game has plus-money odds to score. It could be an ugly one.

I’ll take my chances with Harvey, who’s the clear-cut No. 1 option for the Broncos near the goal line.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on the AFC & NFC conference championships!

From Weeks 13-18, Harvey had 10 carries inside the 10-yard line. His teammate, Jaleel McLaughlin, had zero.

Harvey sees decent work as a receiver, too, with 15 catches over his past four games. But I’m more fixated on his red zone rushing volume.

It’s fair to expect the Broncos to struggle on offence with Jarrett Stidham at the helm. But if their defence can give them a short field or two, Harvey should be the top candidate to punch it in.

The rookie tailback has six TDs in his past seven games.

-Horrobin

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

The NFL divisional round is often heralded as the most exciting slate of the year. This weekend features four tight matchups split between Saturday and Sunday.

NFL divisional round narrative: The Seattle Seahawks (-7) are the largest favourites on the board against their NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers. Every other game features a spread of four points or fewer, including a pick’em between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and Bo Nix’s Denver Broncos.

Embed: #122861

Check out our staff’s NFL ATS predictions for the divisional round.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NFL

NFL ATS predictions

NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman offer up their NFL ATS predictions for every playoff game on wild-card weekend.

NFL odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026.

Sunday’s against the spread playoff picks

Texans vs. Patriots (Sunday, Jan. 18: 3:00 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: New England -3
Horrobin says: I think I’d prefer the under rather than an ATS play after seeing how both of these defences performed during wild-card weekend. But I do like the Pats to cover a field goal at home.

New England, which dominated in a 16-3 win over the Chargers last Sunday, has been at home all month.

The Texans, meanwhile, played on Monday in Pittsburgh before hitting the road again.

Embed: #122861

Houston’s defence is ferocious, and it put up a couple of defensive scores in the wild-card round, so that’s a concern. But MVP candidate Drake Maye, who led the NFL in completion percentage, is responsible enough to trust.

New England is 8-3-1 ATS as a home favourite, and the team is 12-2-1 vs. this spread since Week 4.

I still don’t trust C.J. Stroud in road outdoor games, where he’s 7-8 with an 83.9 passer rating (average NFL passer rating this year was 91.4).

Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (NE) | Toman (HOU)

Rams vs. Bears (Sunday, Jan. 18: 6:30 p.m. ET)

NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -4
Perri says: Chicago is coming off a potentially franchise-altering win, erasing an 18-point deficit to eliminate the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. I think the Bears got their postseason jitters out of the way and can strike while the iron is hot.

Caleb Williams and Co. are 7-2 at home this year with a +68 point differential. The Bears covered a +4 spread in both losses, too.

Embed: #122861

Los Angeles’ defence hasn’t impressed me recently, giving up 29.75 PPG over the final four weeks of the regular season before allowing the Carolina Panthers to score 31 points in the wild-card round.

In the cold, I expect the L.A.-based Rams to struggle.

Staff picks: Perri (CHI) | Horrobin (CHI) | Toman (CHI)

NFL regular season + playoff ATS records:

• Toman: 134-130-8 (2-2-0)
• Perri: 133-131-8, (0-4-0)
• Horrobin: 123-141-8, (2-2-0)

Embed: #122861

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!