Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

MLB home run picks Aug. 4: Andrew Vaughn is a worthwhile long shot

MLB home run picks

Andrew Vaughn has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’s a worthwhile long shot to go deep on Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Milwaukee gave Vaughn a fresh start about a month ago, and it’s really paying off for both sides. He has an 1.130 OPS through 19 games with his new club.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 4, featuring a prediction on Nick Castellanos.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Vaughn to hit a home run (+525)

How about this summer resurgence by Vaughn?

The 2019 No. 3 overall pick wore out his welcome with the White Sox earlier this season, getting demoted to the minors and eventually traded to the Brewers.

After a few strong weeks with Triple-A Nashville, Vaughn was called up by the Brewers … and he’s more than earned his big-league reinstatement.

Through 19 games with Milwaukee, Vaughn has been blazing hot:

  • 6 HRs
  • .373 BA
  • .701 SLG
  • 58% hard-hit rate

Given that Vaughn had a .314 SLG in 48 games with the White Sox before the trade, he’s likely coming back to earth at some point. Then again, his batted-ball metrics have been very encouraging all season.

The stoic first baseman ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xSLG (.499), average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (13.9%).

He’ll face Braves starter Erick Fedde, who routinely gives up a lot of hard contact. So far this season, Fedde ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate (44.1%), xBA (.294) and average exit velocity (90.8 mph)

Key stat: Fedde has allowed nine HRs in his past six starts.

Best HR predictions

Castellanos to hit a home run (+333): For as bad as things have been for Baltimore starter Cade Povich, it should actually be worse.

In 13 outings, Povich has a 5.15 ERA and a .287 opponent BA. But those are both better marks than his xERA (6.33) and xBA (.294), as measured by Baseball Savant.

The left-hander has the daunting task of facing a loaded Phillies lineup, and I’m looking to buy in.

Kyle Schwarber (+175) is the obvious choice, but that’s too square for me to write about. I think Castellanos is an intriguing candidate based on his numbers at home and against southpaws.

  • At Home: 222 PAs, .288/.329/.490 slash line, 10 HRs
  • vs. LHPs: 132 PAs, .289/.341/.463 slash line, four HRs

Castellanos has gone deep in back-to-back home series. Here’s hoping he makes it three in a row tonight.

MLB home run picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 08/04/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 4: Bet on Arraez, Contreras in plus-money picks

MLB prop bets

I’m backing a trio of multi-time all-stars in Monday’s MLB prop bets, and two of the predictions come in at plus money.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Luis Arraez is back to batting-title-calibre form, and tonight’s pitching matchup makes him a perfect candidate to collect multiple hits. Elsewhere, Max Fried should stymie a Texas Rangers lineup that has been terrible against southpaws this season.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday, Aug. 4, featuring William Contreras.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+110)

It looks like the old Arraez is back. And that’s a very good thing.

Arraez, who was an all-star and a batting title winner in each of the past three seasons, is having a down year by his lofty standards.

But the soft-hitting, high-contact infielder has turned a corner recently and is now riding a hot streak.

Over his past 16 games, Arraez is 26-for-65 (.400) with nine multi-hit performances.

Amazingly, he only has four walks and one strikeout in that span. This is a guy who, more than anyone else in baseball, is determined to get his bat on the ball.

During this 16-game stretch, Arraez has a .355 xBA, per Baseball Savant, despite a feeble 15% hard-hit rate. He’s adept at hitting into soft spots in the defence — rather than bashing the ball all over the place — and he’s been doing it for years.

Tonight’s matchup should be a perfect one for Arraez. He’ll face Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball in 2025.

Among 357 qualified pitchers, Pfaadt ranks 354th in xBA (.309) and 353rd in xERA (6.29).

In Pfaadt’s three-year career, left-hitting players have a .284 BA against him. And Arraez has been among the most successful.

Key stat: Arraez is 10-for-19 (.526) with two doubles against Pfaadt.

Best MLB picks

Contreras over 0.5 runs (+105): This pick has some value to me based largely on the fact that Erick Fedde is on the mound for the Braves.

Fedde has been an absolute tire fire in the past month and a half. In his past eight starts, he has a 9.37 ERA, with 64 baserunners allowed in 32.2 innings.

Contreras has cashed this bet in six straight games, reaching base in 15 of 30 plate appearances in that span. He typically bats second or third for the Brewers.

Oh, and the standout catcher has excellent numbers vs. Fedde: 9-for-16 (.563) with two home runs, a double and two walks.

Fried over 5.5 Ks (-150): If you can stomach this heavily-juiced price, I think it’s worth a look on Monday night.

The left-hander is facing a Rangers squad that hasn’t been at its best since the all-star break:

  • 23rd in K rate (24.9%)
  • 26th in wRC+ (87)
  • 27th in BA (.226)

Texas has also struggled against left-handed pitching all year, posting the fifth-highest K rate (25.2%) and the third-lowest wRC+ (76).

Fried, who fanned nine batters last time out, is 12-10 vs. this prop this season.

He also has 13 Ks in just 43 plate appearances against the Rangers’ active lineup (30.2 K%).

MLB prop picks made at 1:54 p.m. ET on 08/04/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 4: Andrew Vaughn is a worthwhile long shot

MLB home run picks

Andrew Vaughn has been a revelation for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’s a worthwhile long shot to go deep on Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Milwaukee gave Vaughn a fresh start about a month ago, and it’s really paying off for both sides. He has an 1.130 OPS through 19 games with his new club.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 4, featuring a prediction on Nick Castellanos.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Vaughn to hit a home run (+650)

How about this summer resurgence by Vaughn?

The 2019 No. 3 overall pick wore out his welcome with the White Sox earlier this season, getting demoted to the minors and eventually traded to the Brewers.

After a few strong weeks with Triple-A Nashville, Vaughn was called up by the Brewers … and he’s more than earned his big-league reinstatement.

Through 19 games with Milwaukee, Vaughn has been blazing hot:

  • 6 HRs
  • .373 BA
  • .701 SLG
  • 58% hard-hit rate

Given that Vaughn had a .314 SLG in 48 games with the White Sox before the trade, he’s likely coming back to earth at some point. Then again, his batted-ball metrics have been very encouraging all season.

The stoic first baseman ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xSLG (.499), average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and barrel rate (13.9%).

He’ll face Braves starter Erick Fedde, who routinely gives up a lot of hard contact. So far this season, Fedde ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in hard-hit rate (44.1%), xBA (.294) and average exit velocity (90.8 mph)

Key stat: Fedde has allowed nine HRs in his past six starts.

Embed: #116610

Best HR predictions

Castellanos to hit a home run (+390): For as bad as things have been for Baltimore starter Cade Povich, it should actually be worse.

In 13 outings, Povich has a 5.15 ERA and a .287 opponent BA. But those are both better marks than his xERA (6.33) and xBA (.294), as measured by Baseball Savant.

The left-hander has the daunting task of facing a loaded Phillies lineup, and I’m looking to buy in.

Kyle Schwarber (+175) is the obvious choice, but that’s too square for me to write about. I think Castellanos is an intriguing candidate based on his numbers at home and against southpaws.

  • At Home: 222 PAs, .288/.329/.490 slash line, 10 HRs
  • vs. LHPs: 132 PAs, .289/.341/.463 slash line, four HRs

Castellanos has gone deep in back-to-back home series. Here’s hoping he makes it three in a row tonight.

MLB home run picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET on 08/04/2025.

Blue Jays prop picks vs. Rockies Aug. 4: Lauer has value on Ks prop, Kirk should make noise at the plate

Blue Jays picks

After back-to-back series losses, the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays look to right the ship with a three-game set against the Colorado Rockies.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a road favourite on Monday night in a game with explosive scoring potential. Eric Lauer gets the ball for the Jays, searching to keep bats quiet in baseball’s most offence-friendly environment.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Rockies for Aug. 4, featuring Lauer and Alejandro Kirk.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rockies

Best Bet: Lauer over 4.5 Ks (+100)

From a strikeout standpoint, Lauer is a pretty unassuming guy.

His fastball averages about 92 mph, and he doesn’t have anything particularly devastating to pair it with.

Also, his career seemed to be on life support when he signed with the Jays this winter, after posting a 5.26 ERA in Houston’s minor-league system in 2024 (along with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts in Korea that year).

Branded as a bulk reliever out of the gate, Lauer eventually got his shot in the rotation and found a way to stick.

Since joining the rotation for good on June 11, Lauer is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA (2.90 FIP) in nine starts. He has 51 strikeouts over 48.0 innings in that span.

His 9.6 K/9 in that span is better than the season-long rates for Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios.

Who could’ve predicted that?

Lauer is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight starts, and he’s got an excellent opportunity to keep that train rolling.

The left-hander largely thrives on a three-pitch mix of four-seamers, cutters and curveballs when right-hitting players are in the box (and he should see eight or nine in Colorado’s lineup tonight).

Against that pitch mix from LHPs, Colorado has the league’s fourth-highest whiff rate (26.3%) and fifth-lowest batting average (.223).

Key stat: The Rockies have the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitchers (25.4%).

Quick picks

Kirk over 1.5 total bases (-130): Tonight’s game has a whopping 11.5-run projected total, which makes it difficult to find playable prices on overs in the offensive market.

But I like where Kirk sits, as a hitter who cashed this bet in six of 11 starts last month before a short stint on the injured list.

Kirk ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xBA (.301), hard-hit rate (52.8%) and strikeout rate (9.7%), per Baseball Savant.

He’ll face Colorado right-hander Tanner Gordon, who has allowed a .373/.410/.651 slash line to right-hitting players through 13 career starts. That looks like a typo … but it’s not.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:49 a.m. ET on 08/04/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 4: Bet on Arraez, Contreras and Fried in plus-money picks

MLB prop bets

I’m backing a trio of multi-time all-stars in Monday’s MLB prop bets, and all three predictions come in at plus money.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Luis Arraez is back to batting-title-calibre form, and tonight’s pitching matchup makes him a perfect candidate to collect multiple hits. Elsewhere, Max Fried should stymie a Texas Rangers lineup that has been terrible against southpaws this season.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday, Aug. 4, featuring William Contreras.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+133)

It looks like the old Arraez is back. And that’s a very good thing.

Arraez, who was an all-star and a batting title winner in each of the past three seasons, is having a down year by his lofty standards.

But the soft-hitting, high-contact infielder has turned a corner recently and is now riding a hot streak.

Over his past 16 games, Arraez is 26-for-65 (.400) with nine multi-hit performances.

Amazingly, he only has four walks and one strikeout in that span. This is a guy who, more than anyone else in baseball, is determined to get his bat on the ball.

During this 16-game stretch, Arraez has a .355 xBA, per Baseball Savant, despite a feeble 15% hard-hit rate. He’s adept at hitting into soft spots in the defence — rather than bashing the ball all over the place — and he’s been doing it for years.

Tonight’s matchup should be a perfect one for Arraez. He’ll face Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt, who has been one of the very worst pitchers in baseball in 2025.

Among 357 qualified pitchers, Pfaadt ranks 354th in xBA (.309) and 353rd in xERA (6.29).

In Pfaadt’s three-year career, left-hitting players have a .284 BA against him. And Arraez has been among the most successful.

Key stat: Arraez is 10-for-19 (.526) with two doubles against Pfaadt.

Embed: #116604

Best MLB picks

Contreras over 0.5 runs (+148): This pick screams value to me based largely on the fact that Erick Fedde is on the mound for the Braves.

Fedde has been an absolute tire fire in the past month and a half. In his past eight starts, he has a 9.37 ERA, with 64 baserunners allowed in 32.2 innings.

Contreras has cashed this bet in six straight games, reaching base in 15 of 30 plate appearances in that span. He typically bats second or third for the Brewers.

Oh, and the standout catcher has excellent numbers vs. Fedde: 9-for-16 (.563) with two home runs, a double and two walks.

Fried over 6.5 Ks (+128): If you can stomach the heavily-juiced over 5.5 strikeouts for Fried (-162), that pick has my blessing. But I think we can aim a bit higher on Monday night.

The left-hander is facing a Rangers squad that hasn’t been at its best since the all-star break:

  • 23rd in K rate (24.9%)
  • 26th in wRC+ (87)
  • 27th in BA (.226)

Texas has also struggled against left-handed pitching all year, posting the fifth-highest K rate (25.2%) and the third-lowest wRC+ (76).

Fried, who fanned nine batters last time out, is 7-6 vs. this prop since mid-May.

He also has 13 Ks in just 43 plate appearances against the Rangers’ active lineup (30.2 K%).

MLB prop picks made at 11:34 a.m. ET on 08/04/2025.

Blue Jays prop picks vs. Rockies Aug. 4: Lauer has value on Ks prop, Kirk should make noise at the plate

Blue Jays picks

After back-to-back series losses, the AL East-leading Toronto Blue Jays look to right the ship with a three-game set against the Colorado Rockies.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a road favourite on Monday night in a game with explosive scoring potential. Eric Lauer gets the ball for the Jays, searching to keep bats quiet in baseball’s most offence-friendly environment.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Rockies for Aug. 4, featuring Lauer and Alejandro Kirk.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rockies

Best Bet: Lauer over 4.5 Ks (+105)

From a strikeout standpoint, Lauer is a pretty unassuming guy.

His fastball averages about 92 mph, and he doesn’t have anything particularly devastating to pair it with.

Also, his career seemed to be on life support when he signed with the Jays this winter, after posting a 5.26 ERA in Houston’s minor-league system in 2024 (along with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts in Korea that year).

Branded as a bulk reliever out of the gate, Lauer eventually got his shot in the rotation and found a way to stick.

Since joining the rotation for good on June 11, Lauer is 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA (2.90 FIP) in nine starts. He has 51 strikeouts over 48.0 innings in that span.

His 9.6 K/9 in that span is better than the season-long rates for Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios.

Who could’ve predicted that?

Lauer is 6-2 vs. this prop in his past eight starts, and he’s got an excellent opportunity to keep that train rolling.

The left-hander largely thrives on a three-pitch mix of four-seamers, cutters and curveballs when right-hitting players are in the box (and he should see eight or nine in Colorado’s lineup tonight).

Against that pitch mix from LHPs, Colorado has the league’s fourth-highest whiff rate (26.3%) and fifth-lowest batting average (.223).

Key stat: The Rockies have the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitchers (25.4%).

Embed: #116600

Quick picks

Kirk over 1.5 total bases (-120): Tonight’s game has a whopping 12-run projected total, which makes it difficult to find playable prices on overs in the offensive market.

But I like where Kirk sits, as a hitter who cashed this bet in six of 11 starts last month before a short stint on the injured list.

Kirk ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xBA (.301), hard-hit rate (52.8%) and strikeout rate (9.7%), per Baseball Savant.

He’ll face Colorado right-hander Tanner Gordon, who has allowed a .373/.410/.651 slash line to right-hitting players through 13 career starts. That looks like a typo … but it’s not.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:19 a.m. ET on 08/04/2025.

Tigers vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Bet on Sanchez, Dingler in plus-money picks

Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets

Two of MLB’s top clubs this season, the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies, meet for a Sunday Night Baseball matchup at Citizens Bank Park.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia is the obvious favourite tonight with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. The Phillies are 15-6 in Sanchez’s starts this year, and he’s been an absolute workhorse for them throughout the summer.

Check out my Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets, featuring prop bets on Sanchez, J.T. Realmuto and Dillon Dingler.

Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets

Best Bet: Sanchez over 18.5 outs (+115)

The Phillies used four relievers yesterday, but their bullpen isn’t all that taxed. That’s not what this pick is about, anyway.

Sanchez has established an impressive habit of working deep into games, and I trust that he’ll have the opportunity to do so again in prime time.

Check out what the left-hander has accomplished in his past two months of work:

  • 10 starts
  • 1.90 ERA
  • 19+ outs in 8 of 10
  • 21.3 outs/start

Over the past two months, Sanchez has pitched into the seventh or later in all 10 of his starts. He’s 8-2 vs. this prop in that span, with an average of 21.3 outs.

Sanchez has a long enough leash to crest the 100-pitch mark, but he’s capable of being ultra-efficient, too. He cashed this bet three times in July on fewer than 90 pitches.

The Tigers have been among the toughest lineups on lefties this year, posting a 113 wRC+ (third in MLB), but they’ve slumped recently.

Since the all-star break, Detroit has a 90 wRC+ as a team, which ranks 26th in baseball.

Sanchez is a sinker-baller, and the Tigers rank 26th in xSLG against sinkers from left-handers (26th in MLB), per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Sanchez went 5-0 vs. this outs prop in July. He allowed exactly one run in four of those five starts.

Best MLB picks

Realmuto over 0.5 RBI (+135): Charlie Morton makes his Tigers debut tonight, which is convenient timing for a Phillies lineup that has seen plenty of him.

Morton, an 18-year vet who pitched in the NL East from 2021-24, has a whopping 212 career plate appearances vs. the Phillies’ active lineup.

Realmuto, one of six Phillies with 20+ PAs against Morton, is 11-for-38 (.289) in this matchup. That’s solid, but I’m more encouraged by the catcher’s recent results.

Over his past 16 games, Realmuto has a .343/.353/.522 slash line. He’s 8-8 vs. this prop.

From the cleanup spot in a loaded Phillies lineup, I expect Realmuto to get a quality chance or two to drive somebody home.

Dingler over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+115): For as talented as Sanchez is, Dingler’s numbers vs. LHPs are worth paying attention to.

He’s batting .315 with a .534 SLG against southpaws this season.

In his past 12 games, Dingler has a .357 BA and is 8-4 vs. this prop.

Sanchez’s pitch mix consists of sinkers, changeups and sliders. Against those pitch types from lefties, Dingler has a .368/.368/.605 slash line this year.

Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets made at 2:28 p.m. ET on 08/03/2025.

Tigers vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Bet on Sanchez, Dingler in plus-money picks

Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets

Two of MLB’s top clubs this season, the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies, meet for a Sunday Night Baseball matchup at Citizens Bank Park.

The pregame narrative: Philadelphia is the obvious favourite tonight with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. The Phillies are 15-6 in Sanchez’s starts this year, and he’s been an absolute workhorse for them throughout the summer.

Check out my Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets, featuring prop bets on Sanchez, J.T. Realmuto and Dillon Dingler.

Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets

Best Bet: Sanchez over 18.5 outs (+125)

The Phillies used four relievers yesterday, but their bullpen isn’t all that taxed. That’s not what this pick is about, anyway.

Sanchez has established an impressive habit of working deep into games, and I trust that he’ll have the opportunity to do so again in prime time.

Check out what the left-hander has accomplished in his past two months of work:

  • 10 starts
  • 1.90 ERA
  • 19+ outs in 8 of 10
  • 21.3 outs/start

Over the past two months, Sanchez has pitched into the seventh or later in all 10 of his starts. He’s 8-2 vs. this prop in that span, with an average of 21.3 outs.

Sanchez has a long enough leash to crest the 100-pitch mark, but he’s capable of being ultra-efficient, too. He cashed this bet three times in July on fewer than 90 pitches.

The Tigers have been among the toughest lineups on lefties this year, posting a 113 wRC+ (third in MLB), but they’ve slumped recently.

Since the all-star break, Detroit has a 90 wRC+ as a team, which ranks 26th in baseball.

Sanchez is a sinker-baller, and the Tigers rank 26th in xSLG against sinkers from left-handers (26th in MLB), per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Sanchez went 5-0 vs. this outs prop in July. He allowed exactly one run in four of those five starts.

Embed: #116589

Best MLB picks

Realmuto over 0.5 RBI (+163): Charlie Morton makes his Tigers debut tonight, which is convenient timing for a Phillies lineup that has seen plenty of him.

Morton, an 18-year vet who pitched in the NL East from 2021-24, has a whopping 212 career plate appearances vs. the Phillies’ active lineup.

Realmuto, one of six Phillies with 20+ PAs against Morton, is 11-for-38 (.289) in this matchup. That’s solid, but I’m more encouraged by the catcher’s recent results.

Over his past 16 games, Realmuto has a .343/.353/.522 slash line. He’s 8-8 vs. this prop.

From the cleanup spot in a loaded Phillies lineup, I expect Realmuto to get a quality chance or two to drive somebody home.

Dingler over 1.5 total bases (+188): I initially thought about dealing with a lot of extra juice and backing Dingler to simply get a hit (-165).

But you know what? We’re going to up our risk profile a little bit.

For as talented as Sanchez is, Dingler’s numbers vs. LHPs are worth paying attention to. He’s batting .315 with a .534 SLG against southpaws this season.

In his past 10 games, Dingler has a .361 BA and is 6-4 vs. this prop.

Sanchez’s pitch mix consists of sinkers, changeups and sliders. Against those pitch types from lefties, Dingler has a .368/.368/.605 slash line this year.

Tigers vs. Phillies prop bets made at 1:48 p.m. ET on 08/03/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 3: Shea Langeliers, Brendan Donovan have plus matchups on Sunday

MLB prop bets

Ready for some Sunday afternoon baseball? I’ve got MLB prop bets for a trio of games in the 4 p.m. ET window.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Despite some subpar results recently, Brendan Donovan is a value play on his runs prop in San Diego. Elsewhere, Jacob deGrom has a very playable strikeout line, and Shea Langeliers looks to stay red hot in a plus matchup.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday, Aug. 3.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Donovan over 0.5 runs (+120)

Donovan hasn’t been great lately, but I can’t ignore this price for a leadoff hitter against a shaky starting pitcher.

San Diego’s Dylan Cease has a 5.81 ERA over his past six starts, with 45 baserunners allowed in 31.0 innings over that stretch.

Looking back even further, he has allowed at least three runs in 10 of his past 13 outings.

Donovan has a 92 wRC+ since the start of July, so again, it’s not great on his side of things. But he still has a fairly promising offensive profile overall.

  • The infielder has a .353 on-base percentage this season, which ranks 43rd among 158 qualified hitters.
  • According to Baseball Savant, Donovan has a .294 xBA (93rd percentile). He also rarely strikes out, posting a 13.1% K rate (91st percentile)

Against Cease, Donovan is 3-for-6 with a walk. Their most recent matchup was last August, when Donovan reached base twice and scored in three plate appearances vs. the right-hander.

From the top of the Cardinals’ lineup, Donovan should have the best chance to score against a struggling Cease.

It helps that there are plenty of bats behind Donovan who can drive him home.

Key stat: St. Louis’ lineup is collectively 16-for-42 (.381) with a .571 SLG vs. Cease.

Best MLB picks

deGrom over 6.5 Ks (-163): deGrom is having an awesome year despite the fact that his strikeout numbers are lower than we’re used to.

In 2025, deGrom’s K/9 is 9.5. That’s still strong, but it pales in comparison to his 10.8 K/9 for his career.

Still, I like this line for the fireballer righty who ranks in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate, xERA, strikeout rate and walk rate.

deGrom is 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven starts, averaging 7.1 Ks per outing in that span.

Also, the Mariners have the sixth-highest strikeout rate since the all-star break (25.6%). And deGrom has garnered a 27.6 K% vs. Seattle’s active lineup in 76 plate appearances.

Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (-106): Starting catchers often get Sundays off, so there’s a risk that Langeliers doesn’t play today.

But I really hope he does — even just as a designated hitter, if needed — because he’s got a really juicy matchup.

  • Over his past 15 games, Langeliers has a .407/.438/.864 slash line. He’s 10-5 vs. this prop in that span.
  • Against left-handed pitchers this season, Langeliers is batting .407 with a 1.051 OPS in 59 plate appearances.

Arizona southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has been coughing up hard contact to hitters on both sides of the plate, so a platoon advantage might not matter here.

Opponents have a .307/.362/.525 slash line off Rodriguez this season in 18 games.

That’s an .886 OPS, which is better than what guys like Bryce Harper, Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have compiled this year.

MLB prop picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 08/03/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 3: Shea Langeliers, Brendan Donovan have plus matchups on Sunday

MLB prop bets

Ready for some Sunday afternoon baseball? I’ve got MLB prop bets for a trio of games in the 4 p.m. ET window.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Despite some subpar results recently, Brendan Donovan is a value play on his runs prop in San Diego. Elsewhere, Jacob deGrom has a very playable strikeout line, and Shea Langeliers looks to stay red hot in a plus matchup.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday, Aug. 3.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Donovan over 0.5 runs (+130)

Donovan hasn’t been great lately, but I can’t ignore this price for a leadoff hitter against a shaky starting pitcher.

San Diego’s Dylan Cease has a 5.81 ERA over his past six starts, with 45 baserunners allowed in 31.0 innings over that stretch.

Looking back even further, he has allowed at least three runs in 10 of his past 13 outings.

Donovan has a 92 wRC+ since the start of July, so again, it’s not great on his side of things. But he still has a fairly promising offensive profile overall.

  • The infielder has a .353 on-base percentage this season, which ranks 43rd among 158 qualified hitters.
  • According to Baseball Savant, Donovan has a .294 xBA (93rd percentile). He also rarely strikes out, posting a 13.1% K rate (91st percentile)

Against Cease, Donovan is 3-for-6 with a walk. Their most recent matchup was last August, when Donovan reached base twice and scored in three plate appearances vs. the right-hander.

From the top of the Cardinals’ lineup, Donovan should have the best chance to score against a struggling Cease.

It helps that there are plenty of bats behind Donovan who can drive him home.

Key stat: St. Louis’ lineup is collectively 16-for-42 (.381) with a .571 SLG vs. Cease.

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Best MLB picks

deGrom over 6.5 Ks (-143): deGrom is having an awesome year despite the fact that his strikeout numbers are lower than we’re used to.

In 2025, deGrom’s K/9 is 9.5. That’s still strong, but it pales in comparison to his 10.8 K/9 for his career.

Still, I like this line for the fireballer righty who ranks in the 80th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate, xERA, strikeout rate and walk rate.

deGrom is 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven starts, averaging 7.1 Ks per outing in that span.

Also, the Mariners have the sixth-highest strikeout rate since the all-star break (25.6%). And deGrom has garnered a 27.6 K% vs. Seattle’s active lineup in 76 plate appearances.

Langeliers over 1.5 total bases (-110): Starting catchers often get Sundays off, so there’s a risk that Langeliers doesn’t play today.

But I really hope he does — even just as a designated hitter, if needed — because he’s got a really juicy matchup.

  • Over his past 15 games, Langeliers has a .407/.438/.864 slash line. He’s 10-5 vs. this prop in that span.
  • Against left-handed pitchers this season, Langeliers is batting .407 with a 1.051 OPS in 59 plate appearances.

Arizona southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has been coughing up hard contact to hitters on both sides of the plate, so a platoon advantage might not matter here.

Opponents have a .307/.362/.525 slash line off Rodriguez this season in 18 games.

That’s an .886 OPS, which is better than what guys like Bryce Harper, Kyle Tucker and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have compiled this year.

MLB prop picks made at 11:04 a.m. ET on 08/03/2025.