Jordan Horrobin

In the final game of MLB’s four-game Thursday slate, the Atlanta Braves host Eury Perez and the Miami Marlins.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta got the better of Perez earlier this season, but the young right-hander has been on a tear over the past five weeks. The Marlins are slight road favourites against the shorthanded Braves.

Check out my Marlins vs. Braves predictions, including a prop bet on Jakob Marsee.

Marlins vs. Braves predictions

Parlay: Marlins ML | Perez over 5.5 Ks | Marsee over 0.5 hits (+320)

Marlins moneyline (-121): Prior to the season, I never would’ve believed that the Braves would be 9.0 games behind the Marlins with 50-ish games to go.

But some underperformances and an avalanche of injuries have made it so, and I have zero interest in backing Atlanta tonight.

For one thing, the Braves are missing their two most important bats: Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.

Additionally, the pitching matchup swings heavily in the Marlins’ favour.

Perez has a 1.06 ERA in his past six starts, and Miami is 4-2 in that span. In the two losses, the Marlins scored just three combined runs.

Atlanta will trot out Carlos Carrasco, who was solid in his Atlanta debut last week (6.0 innings, three runs, five Ks). But the 38-year-old Carrasco has a 6.10 ERA in 50 outings since the start of 2023, so one decent game doesn’t move me.

Miami has won six of its past eight games, while Atlanta has lost four of five.

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MLB SGP legs

Perez over 5.5 strikeouts (-130): Perez wasn’t at his best against the Braves back on June 21, allowing three runs over 4.2 innings.

But he did rack up six Ks in that abbreviated outing.

The 22-year-old fireballer really started putting it all together a couple of weeks later, and his recent dominance makes this a compelling play as a standalone or in an SGP.

• Since the start of July, Perez has a 30.0% K rate and a .132 opponent BA.

• He has 5+ Ks in all six outings in that span and is 4-2 vs. this prop.

Atlanta has the ninth-highest strikeout rate in MLB (22.8%). This is a very attainable number for Perez to hit.

Marsee over 0.5 hits (-159): It’s not every day that unsung prospects climb to the majors and rake immediately. But that’s what’s happening with Marsee right now.

The 2022 sixth-round draftee out of Central Michigan University is 7-for-16 (.438) with five extra-base hits in his first six MLB games.

Six of Marsee’s 10 balls in play have had an exit velocity of 97.1 mph or above.

His hot streak could end at any time, but the left-hitting Marsee should get something great to hit against Carrasco on Thursday.

Dating back to 2023, Carrasco has allowed a .279 BA and an .832 OPS to LHBs. And Carrasco’s .281 xBA this season ranks in the 14th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Marlins vs. Braves predictions made at 2:25 p.m. ET on 08/07/2025.

Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates open a four-game set against the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Last year, Skenes went 3-0 vs. the Reds while allowing just one run in 17.0 innings. Though Pittsburgh is 11 games behind Cincinnati in the standings, the Skenes effect has the Pirates favoured to win tonight’s home game.

Check out my Reds vs. Pirates predictions, featuring prop bets on Skenes and Elly De La Cruz.

Reds vs. Pirates predictions

Parlay: Skenes over 7.5 Ks | De La Cruz over 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs (+360)

Skenes over 7.5 Ks (-120): The Reds haven’t had the misfortune of facing Skenes yet this year, but their luck runs out tonight.

Skenes, the odds-on favourite to win the NL Cy Young award, dominated the Reds in three starts last season:

• 17.0 IP
• 10 hits
• 2 walks
• 1 run
• 25 Ks

In the most recent of those outings, which came in September, Skenes fanned nine batters over 5.0 scoreless innings … on just 73 pitches.

At 6.7 Ks per start, Skenes isn’t always rising to this strikeout total in 2025. But the Reds are a good matchup for him to exceed his average.

The Reds have the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.9%). Also, Skenes has 18 Ks vs. Cincy’s active lineup in just 42 plate appearances (42.9 K%).

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MLB SGP legs

De La Cruz over 0.5 hits (-162): Both right-hitting and left-hitting players are below the Mendoza Line against Skenes this year, who has a .187 opponent BA overall.

Still, this is a compelling leg to add to the SGP, as it vaults the price from +140 to +360.

The switch-hitting De La Cruz is better from the left side, where he has a .299/.389/.531 slash line this season. He’s 31-9 vs. this prop in his past 40 games.

Also, De La Cruz is 2-for-6 with a double and a walk vs. Skenes. Not bad, all things considered.

Under 8.5 runs (-200): The Reds/Pirates season series has been an absolute slog, with offence taking a back seat.

All six head-to-head matchups so far have gone under this number. The average total in those games was 5.3 runs.

Dating back to the start of June, nine of Skenes’ 11 starts have gone under an 8.5-run total. His presence is obviously a plus for run suppression, but there’s also not much to like about either offensive lineup.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh rank 24th and 29th, respectively, in wRC+. The Pirates are also dead last in runs per game (3.54).

Reds vs. Pirates predictions made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 08/07/2025.

With Logan Gilbert on the mound, the Seattle Mariners are gunning for a three-game sweep at home on Thursday against the Chicago White Sox.

The pregame narrative: The Mariners are in the thick of the AL playoff race, and stacking wins against bad teams like the White Sox is a must. Seattle is 4-1 vs. Chicago this season, covering a -1.5 run line in three of those games.

Check out my White Sox vs. Mariners predictions, featuring Josh Naylor and Lenyn Sosa.

White Sox vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Mariners -0.5 F5 | Naylor over 1.5 bases | Sosa over 0.5 hits (+450)

Mariners -0.5 – first five moneyline (-175): Gilbert hasn’t been at his sharpest lately, but he still gives the Mariners a distinct advantage on Thursday afternoon.

The right-hander has allowed three-plus runs in back-to-back starts for just the second time this season. That doesn’t wash away a season’s worth of quality stuff, though.

• Gilbert ranks in the 94th percentile in both xERA (2.72) and xBA (.202), per Baseball Savant.

• Among 138 pitchers with 70+ innings, Gilbert has the eighth-lowest FIP (2.75).

On the flip side, Chicago’s Shane Smith has been going through a really rough stretch.

In his past six outings, Smith has a 9.93 ERA with 43 baserunners in just 22.2 IP. The White Sox are 1-4-1 on the F5 moneyline in that span.

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MLB SGP legs

Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+132): If you’re looking for another way to fade Smith, I think backing Naylor is a good way to do it.

The Mississauga, Ontario native has put up strong numbers against right-handed pitchers for years, posting an OPS of .800 or better in every season since 2021.

This year, the left-hitting Naylor has a .293/.376/.467 slash line vs. RHPs.

Naylor’s .287 xBA ranks in the 89th percentile, and he’s flashed some power recently with home runs in back-to-back games.

In 12 games since joining the Mariners on July 25, Naylor is slugging .500.

Sosa over 0.5 hits (-182): If I’m going to back any hitter against Gilbert, I want it to be someone who bats from the left side and is in a groove.

Sosa, who’s on a nine-game hitting streak, fits the bill.

The 25-year-old infielder is 14-for-32 (.438) during the streak with more home runs (four) than strikeouts (three).

Sosa is a certified free swinger, posting a whopping 41.9% chase rate (third percentile) while walking just 3.6% of the time (second percentile). When he digs into the box, he’s up there to hit.

Erratic swing decisions aside, Sosa is a solid hitter. His .283 xBA ranks in the 83rd percentile, and he’s cashed this bet in 60 of 89 starts (67.4%).

White Sox vs. Mariners predictions made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 08/07/2025.

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Thursday’s MLB slate features just four games, and I’m tapping into two of them for some home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Agustin Ramirez has been a solid offensive contributor in his first season with the Marlins, and tonight’s righty-on-righty matchup should work in his favour. Elsewhere, Oneil Cruz’s propensity to hit the ball really hard has my attention.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 7.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Ramirez to hit a home run (+450)

With right-hander Carlos Carrasco on the mound for the Braves tonight, my initial instinct was to target a left-hitting player in the Marlins’ lineup.

But Carrasco has reverse splits, meaning his better numbers have actually come against LHBs this season. So let’s highlight a right-hitting batter who should be a solid candidate to go yard.

Ramirez, a rookie catcher, is having a solid season across the board when it comes to contact quality.

According to Baseball Savant, the 23-year-old ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Ramirez has some modest reverse splits, posting a slightly better OPS against righties (.756) than against lefties (.732). But this is really more about Carrasco.

The 38-year-old pitcher has allowed a .299/.347/.642 slash line to RHBs this year, including five homers in nine games.

Carrasco ranks in the 12th percentile in barrel rate (11.0%) and in the 14th percentile in xBA (.281).

Any right-hitting players with some pop are worth a look when Carrasco takes the mound.

Key stat: Ramirez has 17 home runs this season, and 12 of them came against right-handed pitchers.

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Best HR predictions

Cruz to hit a home run (+500): Cruz comes up empty. A lot. But when he connects, the ball can go a long, long way.

Cruz’s 31.8% strikeout rate ranks in the second percentile in MLB, and his .234 xBA ranks in the 16th percentile. Not great.

But there’s a lot of pop in his bat, too:

• 100th-percentile exit velocity (96.4 mph)
• 99th-percentile hard-hit rate (57.9%)
• 98th-percentile barrel rate (19.8%)

The outfielder’s elite power potential is what landed him in the Home Run Derby, and it’s why he’s an interesting play at 5-to-1.

Reds starter Brady Singer doesn’t allow a ton of home runs, but his 9.4% barrel rate (32nd percentile) and 90.5 mph average exit velo (19th percentile) aren’t exactly glowing.

At this price, you could do worse than back a guy who clubs 95+ mph rockets in his sleep.

MLB home run picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08/07/2025.

The San Diego Padres look to stay on a roll Wednesday night with a series victory up for grabs against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The pregame narrative: Arizona leads the season series, 5-4, entering tonight’s rubber match for a three-game set at Chase Field. But the Padres have been a far better bunch lately, and they’re the ones who loaded up at the trade deadline to make a serious postseason push.

Check out my Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions, featuring Jackson Merrill and Geraldo Perdomo.

Cardinals vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres ML | Merrill over 0.5 RBI | Perdomo over 0.5 hits (+335)

Padres moneyline (-141): San Diego is 8-2 in its past 10 games and just simply looks like the much better club right now.

Since the all-star break, the Padres rank sixth in wRC+ (117) and first in bullpen ERA (2.06).

In the same span, the D-backs are 22nd in wRC+ (93) and 21st in bullpen ERA (4.75).

Nestor Cortes will start for the Padres tonight in just his third outing of the season. He had some very encouraging minor-league rehab results that suggest he’s ready to face MLB-calibre hitters:

• 4 MiLB starts
• 9.0 K/9
• 1.00 ERA
• .154 opponent BA

On the Diamondbacks’ side, Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball. He’s been really up and down in limited work this year, but his 5.92 FIP in nine outings doesn’t paint a rosy picture overall.

Arizona is 4-10 in its past 14 games.

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MLB SGP legs

Merrill over 0.5 RBI (+112): Merrill’s in a nice little groove right now, and he’s done an exceptional job of cashing in runners on base.

Check out the second-year outfielder’s numbers over his past 15 games:

• 17 RBI
• 1+ hits in 14 of 15
• .777 OPS
• 1+ RBI in 7 straight games

Merrill has never faced DeSclafani, but the Padres have a combined 91 plate appearances vs. the right-hander. And the lineup as a whole has fared really well, posting a .287 BA and a .540 SLG against him.

From San Diego’s cleanup spot, Merrill should continue to see RBI opportunities at a solid clip.

Perdomo over 0.5 hits (-215): Perdomo is a guy worth targeting when there’s a southpaw on the mound.

I think Cortes can help lead the Padres to victory, but I don’t expect him to completely shut down Perdomo, who’s 22-for-62 (.355) in his past 17 games.

Against LHPs this season, Perdomo is batting .328 with an .816 OPS.

Perdomo ranks in the 94th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. If he’s swinging, he’s very likely putting the ball in play and giving himself a chance at a hit.

Padres vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 2:05 p.m. ET on 08/06/2025.

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Nick Kurtz and Salvador Perez are Wednesday night’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: It’s not hyperbolic to say that Kurtz is MLB’s best hitter against right-handed pitching, and he’s worth a look tonight on his HR prop. Elsewhere, Perez is seeking his third homer in the first week of August.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 6.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Kurtz to hit a home run (+350)

You won’t see him in the postseason this year, so enjoy Kurtz’s epic rookie season while it lasts.

Last year’s fourth-overall draft pick has bashed 23 home runs for the Athletics, including a four-homer game less than two weeks ago.

Kurtz wasn’t called up right away, and he spent some time on the injured list earlier this year, so he isn’t a qualified hitter. Still, his 74-game sample is large enough to know he’s having an S-tier season.

Among players with 300-plus plate appearances, only Aaron Judge ranks ahead of Kurtz in SLG, wRC+ and ISO.

That’s right … guys like Shohei Ohtani, Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber are in his rearview mirror.

Kurtz and the A’s will face Cade Cavalli tonight in DC, and I’m loving the matchup.

Cavalli, who was a consensus top-100 prospect in 2021-22, missed most of the past two seasons due to injury. This year, he posted a 6.09 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts before getting called up for his MLB season debut.

The left-hitting Kurtz has been punishing right-handed pitchers like no one else. His .351 BA and .749 SLG vs. righties this year are both the best marks in the majors.

Key stat: Kurtz has 11 HRs in his past 25 games, posting a .441/.527/.968 slash line in that span.

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Best HR predictions

Perez to hit a home run (+540): Dustin May was a trade deadline reclamation project for the Red Sox, and he’ll make his first start for Boston tonight.

Given that May has allowed eight HRs in his past five starts, I think it makes sense to target someone in the Royals’ lineup.

Perez looks like a nice pick at this price, especially after homering in two of five games so far this month.

MLB’s co-leader in home runs in 2021 still has plenty of pop, evidenced by his .544 xSLG (94th percentile, per Baseball Savant).

May’s four-pitch mix includes a sweeper and all three fastball types (four-seamer, sinker, cutter). Against RHPs this season, Perez is slugging .546 on those offerings with 14 HRs.

MLB home run picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 08/06/2025.

After a pair of stat-padding performances, the Toronto Blue Jays get one more game at Coors Field with a sweep on the line.

The pregame narrative: Toronto scored 25 runs the past two nights for a couple of dominant wins over the Colorado Rockies. Naturally, the AL East-leading Jays are heavy favourites to win on Wednesday afternoon against MLB’s worst team.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rockies for Aug. 6, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rockies

Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 hits (-106)

Guerrero didn’t really get in on the fun in Monday’s series opener, going 1-for-5 with a single and a run scored.

He made up for lost time on Tuesday, though, finishing a triple shy of the cycle. He also had a 400-foot flyout that would’ve been a home run in 16 of MLB’s 30 parks (including Rogers Centre), per Baseball Savant.

Guerrero is having a down year in terms of his power production, but he still wields one of the elite bats in the sport.

Check out his rankings in some of the most telling batted ball metrics:

• 100th-percentile xBA (.322)
• 93rd-percentile xSLG (.537)
• 90th-percentile hard-hit rate (51.4%)
• 89th-percentile K rate (13.4%)

Left-hander Kyle Freeland will pitch for the Rockies today, and his six-pitch mix includes all three fastball types (four-seamer, sinker, cutter). That’s excellent news for Vladdy.

This season, Guerrero is 20-for-57 (.351) with a .378 xBA and a .614 SLG against fastballs from LHPs.

Walks are generally a risk for Toronto’s patient first baseman, but I expect he’ll get plenty of pitches to hit. Freeland has a 5.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 89th percentile.

Key stat: In his past 17 games, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 hits nine times. He’s 26-for-68 (.382) in that span.

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Quick picks

Kirk over 0.5 RBI (+117): Kirk is 4-for-9 in this series from the No. 5 spot in the lineup. Assuming he’s in the heart of the order again today, this pick has some value.

This price wouldn’t typically excite me, but the Jays’ offence is red hot — and it clearly knows how to capitalize at Coors Field.

In the past two weeks, Toronto has seven hitters who’ve played at least nine games and posted a wRC+ of 123 or above.

Then there’s Kirk, who’s been back for six games after an injured list stint and has a .318/.400/.409 slash line (132 wRC+) since making his return.

Freeland has a .304 xBA, which ranks in the first percentile. And his 10th-percentile xERA (5.21) is right in line with his actual ERA.

Toronto should be able to tee off, and Kirk should have RBI opportunities from the middle of the lineup.

Blue Jays -2.5 (-103): Toronto has outscored Colorado, 25-5, through two games. It’s not always going to be that easy, but I do think another blowout is in play on Wednesday.

• Colorado is 6-9 in its past 15 games. All nine of its losses in that span have come by 4+ runs.

• The Jays have the second-best run line record in the majors (67-48, 58.3%). The Rockies’ run line record ranks dead last (46-67, 40.7%).

Furthermore, Colorado is 9-11 vs. this bloated run line in Freeland’s starts this year. He has a 5.40 ERA in his past seven outings.

Colorado native Kevin Gausman, who’ll start for the Jays today, has a 2.74 ERA in his past seven outings. And the Jays covered a -2.5 run line in four of those games.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 08/06/2025.