Jordan Horrobin

After dropping last night’s series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays look to get even with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell gets the ball for L.A. in what will be just his second start in the past four months. Snell and the Dodgers are favoured against Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Dodgers for Aug. 9, including prop bets on Freddie Freeman and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Dodgers

Best bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+112)

It’s easy to take Freeman’s production for granted, given how long he’s been an upper-tier hitter in MLB.

But what he’s doing in his age-35 season is really impressive — and he’s only gotten better as the year has gone on.

• Freeman’s average recently crept back up above .300. He’s on track to post at least a .300 BA and a 130 OPS+ for the eighth time in the past 10 years.

• Since the all-star break, Freeman has a .348/.420/.536 slash line with 37 total bases in 19 games.

Freeman’s batted ball metrics aren’t eye-popping, but they’re comfortably above average. He ranks in the 65th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Two of his favourite pitches to hit are cutters and sinkers from right-handed pitchers, and he’ll likely see plenty of those tonight.

Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt throws cutters/sinkers nearly 60% of the time to left-hitting batters.

In 66 plate appearances against those pitch types from RHPs, Freeman has a 1.150 OPS this season.

He’s also 3-for-9 with a home run vs. Bassitt.

Key stat: Freeman has gone over 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 21 games.

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Jays vs. Dodgers picks

Clement over 0.5 runs (+133): He’s cooled off a bit, but Clement has still been among the best hitters when facing southpaws this season. That makes this an interesting play for me.

Clement has a 150 wRC+ against LHPs, which ranks 19th among 159 qualified hitters. That’s ahead of guys like Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado and even Bo Bichette.

In his past 16 games, Clement has an .857 OPS and 15 runs. He bounces around the lineup a bit, but Toronto’s lineup has been so good that he can score from anywhere.

Clement batted in the No. 2 spot in the past two games, and there was a lefty on the mound both times. The same is true tonight, so hopefully he’s back in that favourable spot.

Blue Jays best bets made at 2 p.m. ET on 08/09/2025.

Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr. are my targets in Saturday’s star-powered version of MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Witt will dig into the box against the most homer-friendly pitcher in the league tonight, and I expect him to take advantage. As for Harper, his second-half surge is worth investing in.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 9.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Witt to hit a home run (+325)

The best pitcher to target on the home run prop market today is Bailey Ober. And I don’t think it’s particularly close.

• Among 105 pitchers with 90+ innings pitched, Ober has the highest HR/9 rate (2.13).

• He has allowed at least one homer in seven consecutive starts, serving up 17 HRs overall in that span.

The likeliest player to go deep at Target Field tonight is Witt, and I think this price point is worth jumping at.

The shortstop homered in last night’s series opener, improving his slash line to .275/.373/.569 over the past 13 games.

Also, Witt has fantastic numbers against Ober:

• 12-for-25 (.480)
• 5 extra-base hits (1 HR)
• .765 xSLG

Ober throws a four-seam fastball that averages just 90.4 mph, per Baseball Savant. Given that Witt is slugging .533 against four-seamers from righties, he should be salivating at the thought of that pitch.

Furthermore, Ober’s three secondary pitches to right-hitting players have been whacked all over the yard. His changeup, slider and sweeper have a combined .577 SLG from opposing RHBs.

Key stat: Witt ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.

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Best HR predictions

Harper to hit a home run (+325): Jacob deGrom gets the ball for the Texas Rangers, which initially gave me pause about backing anyone on the Phillies’ side.

But, for as effective as deGrom has been this season (10-4, 2.80 ERA), he’s quite capable of making a mistake that exits the park

deGrom has allowed 10 homers in his past six games. And he’s below the 50th percentile (i.e., below average) in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity this season.

With that in mind, I like Harper as a home run option for Philadelphia. He’s been awesome since the all-star break and has already homered off deGrom twice in his career.

Since the break, Harper is slugging .649 with seven HRs in 19 games.

MLB home run picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 08/09/2025.

Two of my three MLB prop bets for Saturday come from the Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres matchup.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Michael King returns to the majors after nearly three months on the shelf, and he’ll likely have a reduced pitch count tonight. King’s over/under strikeouts prop is reduced, too, and the over should be playable against the free-swinging Red Sox.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 9, featuring predictions on Roman Anthony and Gleyber Torres.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Torres over 1.5 total bases (+114)

Torres and Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi have both spent a lot of time in the American League, and as a result, their paths have crossed several times.

Over the years, Torres has amassed a nice resume against Kikuchi: 12-for-30 (.400) with two homers, two doubles and just three strikeouts.

Detroit’s all-star middle infielder does his best work against left-handed pitching, so it’s no surprise he’s fared well vs. Kikuchi.

Among 159 qualified hitters, here’s where Torres ranks in some offensive categories vs. LHPs:

• 4th in K rate (6.9%)
• 12th in OBP (.397)
• 13th in wRC+ (156)
• 20th in SLG (.526)

Kikuchi is liable to issue some walks, and Torres is often content to accept a free pass, which poses a risk for this pick. But Torres hasn’t been patient lately, collecting just two walks over his past 16 games (3.0% walk rate).

What I’m buying here is pretty simple: A talented hitter with a platoon advantage who knows how to excel in this particular matchup.

Torres ranks in the 95th percentile in xBA (.297), per Baseball Savant, and his xSLG (.520) is miles ahead of his actual SLG (.421). When he puts the ball in play, good things tend to happen.

Key stat: Torres has homered in four of his past 10 games.

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Best MLB picks

Anthony over 0.5 runs (+132): The left-hitting Anthony tends to bat leadoff when the Red Sox are facing a right-handed pitcher, and with that in mind, this pick screams value.

• Anthony has a .422 OBP vs. righties in 135 plate appearances, which equates to a 145 wRC+.

• The rookie’s walk rate vs. RHPs (15.6%) is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (18.5%).

• He has scored seven runs in his past nine games (5-4 vs. this prop in that span).

Padres righty Michael King has a 2.59 ERA through 10 starts this year, but he hasn’t pitched in the majors since mid-May. There’s no guarantee that he’ll spring back into elite form.

And either way, this is more about Anthony’s opportunity amid a glistening rookie campaign. His .440 OBP in the second half is the seventh-highest in MLB.

King over 5.5 Ks (-109): Though I like Anthony to score, King should still be able to rack up strikeouts against Boston.

• The Red Sox have the fifth-highest K rate against righties (23.0%).

• Against Boston’s active lineup, King has 14 Ks in 44 plate appearances (31.8 K%).

Given that King hasn’t made an MLB start since May — with just one rehab outing in between — he’ll very likely be on a pitch count.

He threw 61 pitches in a Triple-A start on Aug. 3, striking out five batters in just 3.1 innings. Hopefully, his pitch count will be up around 80 tonight.

King cashed this bet in six of his final seven MLB starts before getting hurt. And he averaged 6.9 Ks per game in that span.

Circumstances are a bit different now, but I think this trimmed-down line is playable for the talented righty.

MLB prop picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 08/09/2025.

Two teams with high playoff hopes meet in the Bronx on Friday, as the New York Yankees host the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: New York snapped a five-game losing skid on Wednesday and is now in a pick’em against Houston. Tonight marks the first of six matchups between the Yankees and Astros over the next month — with a potential series lining up in October.

Check out my Astros vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 8, featuring Aaron Judge and Jesus Sanchez.

Astros vs. Yankees prop picks

Best bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+106)

If I can get Judge over 1.5 bases at plus-money odds, I’m going to have a difficult time turning that down.

Judge has a multitude of MLB-best numbers, including:

• .339 BA
• .702 SLG
• 213 OPS+
• 269 total bases

His .711 xSLG, as measured by Baseball Savant, is somehow even higher than his league-high SLG.

Judge is also averaging 2.56 bases per game and is 59-46 vs. this prop. What’s not to like?

Health is the main risk factor, as the outfielder/designated hitter is only two games removed from an injured list stint caused by an elbow issue.

He’s fit enough to swing, though. That makes him a value play at this price.

Astros starter Hunter Brown has a sub-2.50 ERA on the season, but he’s been more hittable lately. In his past six starts, the righty has allowed 31 hits and a 4.64 ERA in 33.0 innings.

Brown throws sinkers and four-seamers roughly 70% of the time to right-hitting opponents. Judge has a .438/.500/.846 slash line on those pitches from RHPs in 130 at-bats.

Key stat: Judge is 2-for-3 with a home run vs. Brown.

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Quick pick

Sanchez over 0.5 runs (+120): It’s only been four starts, but New York’s Cam Schlittler hasn’t put together a particularly strong outing yet.

The rookie right-hander has allowed multiple runs in all four starts, posting a 4.58 ERA (5.01 xERA) overall. In 19.2 innings, he’s had 33 baserunners.

With that in mind, I want a piece of the Astros’ lineup tonight in the run prop market. Sanchez, who will likely bat in the No. 2 spot, has an enticing price to score.

The ex-Miami Marlin has doubled in four straight games and crossed the plate in each of his past three.

Sanchez isn’t elite in many bat-to-ball metrics, but he’s prominently above average in a lot of critical ones.

He ranks in the 67th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and average exit velocity.

Astros vs. Yankees prop picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 08/08/2025.

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The AL-leading Toronto Blue Jays begin a massive series against the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: It’s a battle of the old guard in L.A., where two future Hall of Famers — Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw — will duke it out on the mound. Max Muncy and Bo Bichette are both in excellent form right now, and both should make their mark in SoCal.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Dodgers for Aug. 8, including a prop bet on Mookie Betts.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Dodgers

Best bet: Betts under 0.5 runs (-136)

Is Betts having a down year, or has his decline begun?

The seven-time Silver Slugger and 2018 AL MVP has a .670 OPS this year, which is easily the worst of his 12-year career. To put that in perspective, he’s never finished a season with a sub-.800 OPS.

According to Baseball Savant, Betts’ batted ball metrics do a reasonable job of matching the eye test.

• 41st-percentile xBA (.254)
• 32nd-percentile xSLG (.396)
• 15th-percentile hard-hit rate (32.8%)

The Dodgers score the second-most runs in MLB (5.16/game) and Betts typically bats in the No. 2 spot. So you’d think he was cashing his runs prop routinely.

Think again.

Betts is just 46-57 vs. this prop as a starter, which means the under has cashed 55.34% of the time.

He’s also in quite an extended slump right now, posting a .189/.255/.244 slash line since July 6. In that span, Betts failed to score a run in 15 of 22 starts.

There’s definitely more juice on this prop than I’d prefer, and it still feels weird to fade Betts from such a favourable spot in an elite lineup.

But it’s been a largely profitable play this year, and I expect that to continue tonight.

Key stat: Betts is 1-for-7 with a strikeout vs. Scherzer.

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Jays vs. Dodgers picks

Bichette over 1.5 total bases (-109): Last season is looking more and more like a massive outlier for Bichette.

The shortstop posted a 70 OPS+ over 81 games in an injury-plagued season. He’s had an OPS+ north of 120 in each of his other six MLB campaigns.

He’s also among the very hottest hitters in baseball right now, batting .400 with a 1.070 OPS over the past month.

Bichette is 13-5 vs. this prop in 18 games since July 20, and he has five multi-hit performances in six games so far in August.

The cherry on top is that Bichette is 2-for-3 with two home runs vs. Kershaw. I expect the two-time all-star to stay dangerous tonight.

Muncy over 1.5 total bases (+160): Muncy with a platoon advantage and a price like this? Sign me up.

• The left-hitting infielder has a .292/.424/.542 slash line against RHPs this season.

• His .553 xSLG ranks in the 96th percentile, and he also has a 95th-percentile hard-hit rate (53.3%).

• Left-hitting batters have a .524 SLG vs. Scherzer.

Muncy has posted a 1.127 OPS in his past 25 games, cashing this bet 12 times in that span.

He missed most of July due to injury but had a monster performance on Tuesday in just his second game back (4-for-5, two home runs).

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 08/08/2025.

Corbin Carroll is off to a strong start in August, and he’s the headliner for my Friday night MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Carroll won’t have a platoon advantage tonight, but he does have some strong results against the pitcher he’s facing. In St. Louis, Seiya Suzuki has a compelling matchup against a sinkerballer.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 8.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Carroll to hit a home run (+410)

Don’t let Carroll’s 5-foot-10, 165-pound frame fool you. He can wallop a baseball with the best of ’em.

Carroll is on his way to leading the National League in triples for a third straight season. But he’s also got 23 home runs, which are two shy of his career-best mark.

His expected slugging percentage is .546, which ranks in MLB’s 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

And given that his actual SLG is also .546, that’s completely legit.

Carroll also ranks in the 86th percentile or better in barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That kind of consistent pop never hurts.

Tonight, Carroll will be in a lefty-on-lefty matchup that I’d typically prefer to avoid. But he has some very encouraging numbers vs. Colorado southpaw Austin Gomber: 6-for-13 (.462) with two home runs and a double.

Gomber has coughed up at least one HR in six straight outings, and he has a 6.18 ERA in nine starts overall this year.

Also, Gomber owns a 13.6% barrel rate, which ranks in the second percentile. That metric, along with his 21st-percentile xBA (.272), demonstrates the type of high-quality contact he’s allowing.

Key stat: Carroll has two home runs and a .970 OPS so far this month.

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Best HR predictions

Suzuki to hit a home run (+420): It’s always preferable to back Suzuki when there’s a lefty on the mound, but he’s a pretty dangerous hitter against righties, too.

Tonight, Suzuki will face Cardinals starter Michael McGreevy, a sinker-first pitcher whose .298 xBA ranks in the fourth percentile, per Baseball Savant.

On June 24 in St. Louis, Suzuki went 2-for-3 with a home run off McGreevy. He drilled a sinker 404 feet to left-centre field.

Ideally, we’ll see something like that again. Suzuki is 18-for-58 (.310) with five homers and a .638 SLG against sinkers from RHPs.

The outfielder is slugging .498 vs. RHPs overall this year and is tied for seventh in MLB in home runs (27).

MLB home run picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08/08/2025.