Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Cubs vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 13: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should help guide Toronto to series win

The Toronto Blue Jays put their home-field dominance back to the test on Wednesday night against the Chicago Cubs.

The pregame narrative: After a 5-1 victory at Rogers Centre last night, the Jays moved to 39-19 (.672) at home this season. For context, Toronto only won 39 home games all of last year. As for the Cubs, losing on Wednesday would mark their third series loss in a row.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 13, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Seiya Suzuki.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs

Best bet: Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+110)

Suzuki had a pair of warning-track flyouts in Tuesday’s opener, which encapsulates his struggles this month.

The designated hitter is merely 7-for-30 (.233) with two extra-base hits in August. But the results don’t match his output.

According to Baseball Savant, Suzuki has posted a .311 xBA this month, as well as a 52% hard-hit rate. He has more barrels (eight) than hits (seven).

Barrels, for context, represent only the highest quality of contact based on launch angle and exit velocity. Most of them go for extra bases.

Hence why I’m not giving up on Suzuki. There’s more than meets the eye with his batted-ball profile.

I also don’t mind this matchup for him tonight against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman. Suzuki is 2-for-3 in his career off the veteran right-hander.

Gausman’s main putaway pitch to right-hitting batters is his splitter, and Suzuki has managed that offering well in 2025 (albeit in a limited sample). Suzuki is 4-for-9 with two home runs against splitters from RHPs.

Also, Suzuki is slugging .494 vs. four-seam fastballs from righties, and that’s the other pitch he’ll see most often from Gausman.

Key stat: Suzuki has a 19.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile. He also owns a 92nd-percentile xSLG (.536).

Jays vs. Cubs picks

Blue Jays moneyline (-138): Cubs starter Cade Horton is the only qualified starting pitcher who hasn’t allowed a run in the past month. So why am I fading his side tonight?

For one thing, I’m not sold on Horton sustaining this dominance against the red-hot Blue Jays.

Over the past two weeks, Toronto’s offence has a .325/.382/.567 slash line, leading the majors in each of those categories. The Jays also have an AL-low 16.6% strikeout rate in that span. They’re locked in.

During Horton’s scoreless streak, his .135 opponent batting average is far better than his xBA (.225). This could easily be a back-to-Earth start for him.

And the Cubs have struggled at the plate, posting a .665 OPS over the past two weeks (25th in MLB).

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+100): Vladdy has been tattooing the ball consistently, and this price is absolutely worth jumping on.

Coming off a 3-for-4 night, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 bases in five of his past six games — and in 13 of his past 20.

Since the all-star break, he’s 37-for-97 (.381), averaging 2.79 bases per game.

And considering Baseball Savant credits Guerrero with a .361 xBA in that span, this barrage of hits looks pretty legit.

Blue Jays best bets made at 10:03 a.m. ET on 08/13/2025.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays best bets Aug. 13: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should help guide Toronto to series win

The Toronto Blue Jays put their home-field dominance back to the test on Wednesday night against the Chicago Cubs.

The pregame narrative: After a 5-1 victory at Rogers Centre last night, the Jays moved to 39-19 (.672) at home this season. For context, Toronto only won 39 home games all of last year. As for the Cubs, losing on Wednesday would mark their third series loss in a row.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Cubs for Aug. 13, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Seiya Suzuki.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Cubs

Best bet: Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+120)

Suzuki had a pair of warning-track flyouts in Tuesday’s opener, which encapsulates his struggles this month.

The designated hitter is merely 7-for-30 (.233) with two extra-base hits in August. But the results don’t match his output.

According to Baseball Savant, Suzuki has posted a .311 xBA this month, as well as a 52% hard-hit rate. He has more barrels (eight) than hits (seven).

Barrels, for context, represent only the highest quality of contact based on launch angle and exit velocity. Most of them go for extra bases.

Hence why I’m not giving up on Suzuki. There’s more than meets the eye with his batted-ball profile.

I also don’t mind this matchup for him tonight against Toronto starter Kevin Gausman. Suzuki is 2-for-3 in his career off the veteran right-hander.

Gausman’s main putaway pitch to right-hitting batters is his splitter, and Suzuki has managed that offering well in 2025 (albeit in a limited sample). Suzuki is 4-for-9 with two home runs against splitters from RHPs.

Also, Suzuki is slugging .494 vs. four-seam fastballs from righties, and that’s the other pitch he’ll see most often from Gausman.

Key stat: Suzuki has a 19.1% barrel rate, which ranks in the 98th percentile. He also owns a 92nd-percentile xSLG (.536).

Embed: #117137

Jays vs. Cubs picks

Blue Jays moneyline (-137): Cubs starter Cade Horton is the only qualified starting pitcher who hasn’t allowed a run in the past month. So why am I fading his side tonight?

For one thing, I’m not sold on Horton sustaining this dominance against the red-hot Blue Jays.

Over the past two weeks, Toronto’s offence has a .325/.382/.567 slash line, leading the majors in each of those categories. The Jays also have an AL-low 16.6% strikeout rate in that span. They’re locked in.

During Horton’s scoreless streak, his .135 opponent batting average is far better than his xBA (.225). This could easily be a back-to-Earth start for him.

And the Cubs have struggled at the plate, posting a .665 OPS over the past two weeks (25th in MLB).

Guerrero over 1.5 hits (+180): I rarely look at this market for Guerrero because he has such a high walk rate.

But Vladdy has been tattooing the ball so consistently that I still think it’s worth taking a flier at this price.

Coming off a 3-for-4 night, Guerrero has gone over 1.5 hits in 12 of his past 22 games.

Since the all-star break, he’s 37-for-97 (.381), which equates to an average of 1.54 hits per game.

And considering Baseball Savant credits Guerrero with a .361 xBA in that span, this barrage of hits looks pretty legit.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:33 a.m. ET on 08/13/2025.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Aug. 12-14: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

Back from an NL West road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays are home for a three-game series vs. the Chicago Cubs that begins Tuesday night.

Toronto (69-50) has been treading water a bit lately, but the club still owns the best record in the American League. Chicago (67-50) should present a tough test despite also slipping a bit in recent games.

Check out our Cubs vs. Blue Jays preview for the Aug. 12-14 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays preview

The Jays backed into a one-run win over the Dodgers on Sunday to avoid a sweep. And in doing so, they retained their four-game lead in the AL East.

After a franchise-best 55 wins before the all-star break, Toronto has had some ups and downs in the second half.

Offensively, the Jays are cruising with a league-best 150 wRC+. But on the pitching side, their 4.77 ERA ranks 25th.

The result is a 14-11 record that hasn’t allowed the team to pull away in the divisional standings.

The Cubs have fallen off the pace a bit in the NL Central, but this is still a title-hopeful team whose World Series odds (+1,200) aren’t much different from Toronto (+1,500).

Chicago went 2-1 in its head-to-head series vs. Toronto in 2023 and ’24.

Starting pitcher matchups

Aug. 12: RHP Ben Brown (5-7, 6.04 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (8-4, 3.89 ERA)

Brown is essentially a two-pitch pitcher (fastball, knuckle curve) who gives up a ton of hard contact. His 92.1 mph average exit velocity is the seventh-highest in the majors, and he’s in the bottom-15th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Though Toronto is 6-1 in Berrios’ past seven starts, he’s not doing much to help his own cause. The righty has a 5.71 ERA in that seven-outing span. Also, the Cubs’ active lineup is 26-for-78 (.333) against him with a .500 SLG.

Aug. 13: RHP Cade Horton (6-3, 3.18 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (8-8, 3.85 ERA)

Three years after being the No. 7 overall draft pick, Horton is finding success as a rookie. He’s prone to allowing plenty of hard contact (seventh-percentile barrel rate), but he wields a devastating changeup that has garnered far more strikeouts (14) than hits (four).

Like Berrios, Gausman has some rough numbers vs. the Cubs’ lineup (.302 BA, .512 SLG in 98 plate appearances). But unlike Berrios, the recent numbers from Gausman are quite encouraging: 2.54 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in his past eight starts.

Aug. 14: LHP Matthew Boyd (11-5, 2.45 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (2-2, 4.21 ERA)

Formerly a Jays farmhand, Boyd has fashioned a decent career for himself that included a maiden voyage to the All-Star Game this season. The 34-year-old lefty has held his opponents scoreless in five of his past eight starts and owns a 2.17 FIP in that span.

Scherzer looks strong right now, completing at least 6.0 innings in four of his past five starts. He also touched 96 mph on the radar gun last time out. Though he hasn’t worked a scoreless outing yet, Scherzer has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of nine starts.

Who’s hot and who’s not

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): Vladdy is in freight-train mode right now, just like he was after the all-star break last season. This year, he currently ranks third in second-half wRC+ (212) with as many walks as strikeouts. Amazingly, his actual SLG (.488) is still well behind his xSLG (.547), per Baseball Savant.

Alejandro Kirk (C): Given how well Toronto’s offence has performed as a whole in recent weeks, it’s tough to find someone who’s struggling. But Kirk, who missed a week on the injured list, is the most logical candidate. He’s 4-for-22 (.182) with zero extra-base hits in six games since returning.

Matt Shaw (3B): Look out, Shaw is bringing the laser show up north. The rookie has homered in three of his past four games, adding to what has been a superb second half. Shaw has a .328/.349/.770 slash line in 20 post-all-star games, though his 84.4 mph average exit velocity on the season (first percentile) clashes with this power surge.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (DH): PCA was given Ohtani a run for his money in the NL MVP race, but that’s a thing of the past now. The speedy outfielder is still a menace with his glove, but he’s gone ice cold offensively: 3-for-33 (.091) with 13 Ks and zero walks this month.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (69-50, 58.0%).

The Cubs have the 10th-worst run line record (55-62, 47.0%).

Overs are 30-25-4 when the Cubs are on the road (6th in MLB).

Overs are 66-48-5 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

In the Jays’ past 14 games, overs are 10-3-1.

Guerrero is 12-7 vs. his total bases prop since July 22. He’s averaging 3.0 bases per game in that span.

Michael Busch has been one of the Cubs’ best hitters this year, with a .500 SLG on the season. But in his past 19 games, he only has a .250 SLG to go with 23 Ks and nine hits.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Aug. 12-14: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

Back from an NL West road trip, the Toronto Blue Jays are home for a three-game series vs. the Chicago Cubs that begins Tuesday night.

Toronto (69-50) has been treading water a bit lately, but the club still owns the best record in the American League. Chicago (67-50) should present a tough test despite also slipping a bit in recent games.

Check out our Cubs vs. Blue Jays preview for the Aug. 12-14 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays preview

The Jays backed into a one-run win over the Dodgers on Sunday to avoid a sweep. And in doing so, they retained their four-game lead in the AL East.

After a franchise-best 55 wins before the all-star break, Toronto has had some ups and downs in the second half.

Offensively, the Jays are cruising with a league-best 150 wRC+. But on the pitching side, their 4.77 ERA ranks 25th.

The result is a 14-11 record that hasn’t allowed the team to pull away in the divisional standings.

Embed: #115735

The Cubs have fallen off the pace a bit in the NL Central, but this is still a title-hopeful team whose World Series odds (+1,600) aren’t much different from Toronto (+1,300).

Chicago went 2-1 in its head-to-head series vs. Toronto in 2023 and ’24.

Starting pitcher matchups

Aug. 12: RHP Ben Brown (5-7, 6.04 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (8-4, 3.89 ERA)

Brown is essentially a two-pitch pitcher (fastball, knuckle curve) who gives up a ton of hard contact. His 92.1 mph average exit velocity is the seventh-highest in the majors, and he’s in the bottom-15th percentile in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Though Toronto is 6-1 in Berrios’ past seven starts, he’s not doing much to help his own cause. The righty has a 5.71 ERA in that seven-outing span. Also, the Cubs’ active lineup is 26-for-78 (.333) against him with a .500 SLG.

Aug. 13: RHP Cade Horton (6-3, 3.18 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (8-8, 3.85 ERA)

Three years after being the No. 7 overall draft pick, Horton is finding success as a rookie. He’s prone to allowing plenty of hard contact (seventh-percentile barrel rate), but he wields a devastating changeup that has garnered far more strikeouts (14) than hits (four).

Like Berrios, Gausman has some rough numbers vs. the Cubs’ lineup (.302 BA, .512 SLG in 98 plate appearances). But unlike Berrios, the recent numbers from Gausman are quite encouraging: 2.54 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in his past eight starts.

Aug. 14: LHP Matthew Boyd (11-5, 2.45 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (2-2, 4.21 ERA)

Formerly a Jays farmhand, Boyd has fashioned a decent career for himself that included a maiden voyage to the All-Star Game this season. The 34-year-old lefty has held his opponents scoreless in five of his past eight starts and owns a 2.17 FIP in that span.

Scherzer looks strong right now, completing at least 6.0 innings in four of his past five starts. He also touched 96 mph on the radar gun last time out. Though he hasn’t worked a scoreless outing yet, Scherzer has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of nine starts.

Who’s hot and who’s not

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): Vladdy is in freight-train mode right now, just like he was after the all-star break last season. This year, he currently ranks third in second-half wRC+ (212) with as many walks as strikeouts. Amazingly, his actual SLG (.488) is still well behind his xSLG (.547), per Baseball Savant.

Alejandro Kirk (C): Given how well Toronto’s offence has performed as a whole in recent weeks, it’s tough to find someone who’s struggling. But Kirk, who missed a week on the injured list, is the most logical candidate. He’s 4-for-22 (.182) with zero extra-base hits in six games since returning.

Matt Shaw (3B): Look out, Shaw is bringing the laser show up north. The rookie has homered in three of his past four games, adding to what has been a superb second half. Shaw has a .328/.349/.770 slash line in 20 post-all-star games, though his 84.4 mph average exit velocity on the season (first percentile) clashes with this power surge.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (DH): PCA was given Ohtani a run for his money in the NL MVP race, but that’s a thing of the past now. The speedy outfielder is still a menace with his glove, but he’s gone ice cold offensively: 3-for-33 (.091) with 13 Ks and zero walks this month.

Cubs vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (69-50, 58.0%).

The Cubs have the 10th-worst run line record (55-62, 47.0%).

Overs are 30-25-4 when the Cubs are on the road (6th in MLB).

Overs are 66-48-5 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

In the Jays’ past 14 games, overs are 10-3-1.

Guerrero is 12-7 vs. his total bases prop since July 22. He’s averaging 3.0 bases per game in that span.

Michael Busch has been one of the Cubs’ best hitters this year, with a .500 SLG on the season. But in his past 19 games, he only has a .250 SLG to go with 23 Ks and nine hits.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 11: Ride with Crochet, Arraez and Cavalli on Monday night

Garrett Crochet leads the Boston Red Sox into an important series against the Houston Astros, and the southpaw is my featured MLB prop target on Monday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Crochet has been among the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year, and he’s striking opponents out in bunches right now. Out west, look for Luis Arraez to stay hot against a struggling ace in the Bay Area.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 11, featuring a prediction on Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Crochet over 7.5 Ks (-105)

It’s a two-horse race for the American League Cy Young award, and Crochet is firmly in the running.

The AL leader in ERA (2.24) is also second in both total strikeouts (183) and K/9 (11.1). The first year of his tenure with the Red Sox couldn’t be going any better.

Tonight, Crochet faces an Astros team that isn’t known to strike out much. But he’s got the goods to keep this team guessing.

Last year, as a member of the White Sox, Crochet went 2-0 vs. this prop in a pair of starts against the Astros. He had 17 Ks in just 10.0 innings during those games.

He has 13 Ks over just 40 plate appearances vs. the Astros’ active lineup (32.5 K%).

Crochet is averaging 8.0 Ks per start through 23 outings this year.

The left-hander ranks in the 85th percentile in chase rate and the 79th percentile in whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

Crochet also paces the majors in innings (148.1), which is a notable contrast from the innings cap the White Sox had him on last season. In fact, Crochet had fewer innings over 32 starts last year (146.0 IP) than he has now.

Boston’s trust in him to work deep into games serves to increase his opportunities to rack up strikeouts.

Key stat: Crochet is 9-3 vs. this prop in his past 12 starts.

Best MLB picks

Cavalli over 3.5 Ks (-175): There’s a chance this line moves to 4.5 strikeouts at plus money, and I’d definitely still want in. But for now, I’ll highlight the super-juiced standard line that Cavalli is seeing.

Cavalli wields two fastball types that average north of 97 mph, and he has one solid putaway pitch for hitters on either side of the plate (knuckle curve for righties, changeup for lefties).

In his 2025 season debut last week, Cavalli had six strikeouts on 88 pitches over 4.1 innings. He generated a 36.5% whiff rate, which far exceeds the MLB average (25.0%).

Injuries have plagued the 26-year-old, who has only made two big-league starts in his career. But there’s a reason he was a first-round pick in 2020, as well as a consensus top-100 prospect in 2022-23.

Cavalli has an 11.0 K/9 in 64 career minor league starts, and I think there’s value taking a plus-money flier on him Monday (if possible).

Arraez over 1.5 hits (+137): This is one of my favourite props when Arraez is facing a pitcher who rarely issues free passes.

Because that means the free-swinging, high-contact hitter will have ample chances to keep the ball in play and cash this bet.

San Francisco’s Logan Webb fits that profile with his 5.5% walk rate (11th-lowest among 56 qualified pitchers). Webb has also given up a ton of hits lately, allowing 51 over his past 40.0 innings.

Webb is viewed as an ace, but his .262 xBA this season (29th percentile) isn’t daunting.

Especially when you consider that Arraez is batting 9-for-17 (.529) in this matchup.

Arraez, who has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, is 12-10 vs. this prop in his past 22 games. Tonight, he’ll try for a fourth straight multi-hit performance.

MLB prop picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 08/11/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 11: Rooker, Goodman eye compelling pitcher matchups

Brent Rooker went deep against Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot last month, and I’m hoping the Athletics’ slugger can do it again.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is slugging .600 with three home runs over his past 11 games, and he tends to do his best work at home. Pepiot, meanwhile, has allowed at least one HR in six of his past seven games.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 11, featuring Hunter Goodman.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Goodman to hit a home run (+320)

There are so few bright spots this season for the Rockies, but Goodman is one of them.

The second-year catcher leads the team in home runs (22) and fWAR (2.4). He’s not doing anything special defensively, but his bat packs a punch.

Goodman has too much swing-and-miss in his game, but not every pitcher is going to take advantage of that.

Tonight, for instance, St. Louis trots out Miles Mikolas, who has some truly brutal metrics, per Baseball Savant:

3rd-percentile whiff rate
4th-percentile barrel rate
9th-percentile K%
15th-percentile xBA

The only thing Mikolas does at an elite clip is limit walks. His 5.1% walk rate ranks in the 94th percentile, which tells me Goodman should get something to hit.

Mikolas has been getting shelled lately, posting a 6.07 ERA in his past six starts — with 12 homers allowed in that span.

It’d be nice if this game were being played in Colorado’s thin mountain air rather than in St. Louis, but I still believe Goodman has a chance to tee off.

Key stat: Since June 1, Goodman has 15 HRs in 43 starts while slugging .626.

Best HR predictions

Rooker to hit a home run (+265): Rooker is a frequent guest in these home run picks articles, and for good reason. He swings a powerful bat in a very hitter-friendly park.

Rooker has 24 HRs (18th in MLB), as well as a 90th-percentile xSLG (.523).

The Athletics’ home field, Sutter Health Park, is the No. 2 scoring environment in the league (19% more runs than average).

Surely, Rooker’s name is circled on the scouting report for Pepiot. But I don’t think it’ll matter.

Pepiot has coughed up 10 HRs over his past seven starts. On the season, his 1.59 HR/9 is the fourth-highest mark among 57 qualified pitchers.

Rooker is 3-for-8 against Pepiot, including a solo home run on July 2.

MLB home run picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET on 08/11/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 11: Rooker, Goodman eye compelling pitcher matchups

Brent Rooker went deep against Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot last month, and I’m hoping the Athletics’ slugger can do it again.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is slugging .600 with three home runs over his past 11 games, and he tends to do his best work at home. Pepiot, meanwhile, has allowed at least one HR in six of his past seven games.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 11, featuring Hunter Goodman.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Goodman to hit a home run (+380)

There are so few bright spots this season for the Rockies, but Goodman is one of them.

The second-year catcher leads the team in home runs (22) and fWAR (2.4). He’s not doing anything special defensively, but his bat packs a punch.

Goodman has too much swing-and-miss in his game, but not every pitcher is going to take advantage of that.

Tonight, for instance, St. Louis trots out Miles Mikolas, who has some truly brutal metrics, per Baseball Savant:

3rd-percentile whiff rate
4th-percentile barrel rate
9th-percentile K%
15th-percentile xBA

The only thing Mikolas does at an elite clip is limit walks. His 5.1% walk rate ranks in the 94th percentile, which tells me Goodman should get something to hit.

Mikolas has been getting shelled lately, posting a 6.07 ERA in his past six starts — with 12 homers allowed in that span.

It’d be nice if this game were being played in Colorado’s thin mountain air rather than in St. Louis, but I still believe Goodman has a chance to tee off.

Key stat: Since June 1, Goodman has 15 HRs in 43 starts while slugging .626.

Embed: #117130

Best HR predictions

Rooker to hit a home run (+310): Rooker is a frequent guest in these home run picks articles, and for good reason. He swings a powerful bat in a very hitter-friendly park.

Rooker has 24 HRs (18th in MLB), as well as a 90th-percentile xSLG (.523).

The Athletics’ home field, Sutter Health Park, is the No. 2 scoring environment in the league (19% more runs than average).

Surely, Rooker’s name is circled on the scouting report for Pepiot. But I don’t think it’ll matter.

Pepiot has coughed up 10 HRs over his past seven starts. On the season, his 1.59 HR/9 is the fourth-highest mark among 57 qualified pitchers.

Rooker is 3-for-8 against Pepiot, including a solo home run on July 2.

MLB home run picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 08/11/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 11: Ride with Crochet, Arraez and Cavalli in plus-money plays

Garrett Crochet leads the Boston Red Sox into an important series against the Houston Astros, and the southpaw is my featured MLB prop target on Monday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Crochet has been among the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year, and he’s striking opponents out in bunches right now. Out west, look for Luis Arraez to stay hot against a struggling ace in the Bay Area.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 11, featuring a prediction on Nationals right-hander Cade Cavalli.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Crochet over 7.5 Ks (+102)

It’s a two-horse race for the American League Cy Young award, and Crochet is firmly in the running.

The AL leader in ERA (2.24) is also second in both total strikeouts (183) and K/9 (11.1). The first year of his tenure with the Red Sox couldn’t be going any better.

Tonight, Crochet faces an Astros team that isn’t known to strike out much. But he’s got the goods to keep this team guessing.

Last year, as a member of the White Sox, Crochet went 2-0 vs. this prop in a pair of starts against the Astros. He had 17 Ks in just 10.0 innings during those games.

He has 13 Ks over just 40 plate appearances vs. the Astros’ active lineup (32.5 K%).

Crochet is averaging 8.0 Ks per start through 23 outings this year.

The left-hander ranks in the 85th percentile in chase rate and the 79th percentile in whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

Crochet also paces the majors in innings (148.1), which is a notable contrast from the innings cap the White Sox had him on last season. In fact, Crochet had fewer innings over 32 starts last year (146.0 IP) than he has now.

Boston’s trust in him to work deep into games serves to increase his opportunities to rack up strikeouts.

Key stat: Crochet is 9-3 vs. this prop in his past 12 starts.

Embed: #117129

Best MLB picks

Cavalli over 4.5 Ks (+138): The Royals have one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB, but this line looks very playable for a guy whose stuff is this nasty.

Cavalli wields two fastball types that average north of 97 mph, and he has one solid putaway pitch for hitters on either side of the plate (knuckle curve for righties, changeup for lefties).

In his 2025 season debut last week, Cavalli had six strikeouts on 88 pitches over 4.1 innings. He generated a 36.5% whiff rate, which far exceeds the MLB average (25.0%).

Injuries have plagued the 26-year-old, who has only made two big-league starts in his career. But there’s a reason he was a first-round pick in 2020, as well as a consensus top-100 prospect in 2022-23.

Cavalli has an 11.0 K/9 in 64 career minor league starts, and I think there’s value taking a plus-money flier on him Monday.

Arraez over 1.5 hits (+163): This is one of my favourite props when Arraez is facing a pitcher who rarely issues free passes.

Because that means the free-swinging, high-contact hitter will have ample chances to keep the ball in play and cash this bet.

San Francisco’s Logan Webb fits that profile with his 5.5% walk rate (11th-lowest among 56 qualified pitchers). Webb has also given up a ton of hits lately, allowing 51 over his past 40.0 innings.

Webb is viewed as an ace, but his .262 xBA this season (29th percentile) isn’t daunting.

Especially when you consider that Arraez is batting 9-for-17 (.529) in this matchup.

Arraez, who has the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, is 12-10 vs. this prop in his past 22 games. Tonight, he’ll try for a fourth straight multi-hit performance.

MLB prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 08/11/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 9: Bryce Harper, Bobby Witt Jr. are worth backing to go deep

Bryce Harper and Bobby Witt Jr. are my targets in Saturday’s star-powered version of MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Witt will dig into the box against the most homer-friendly pitcher in the league tonight, and I expect him to take advantage. As for Harper, his second-half surge is worth investing in.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 9.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Witt to hit a home run (+225)

The best pitcher to target on the home run prop market today is Bailey Ober. And I don’t think it’s particularly close.

Among 105 pitchers with 90+ innings pitched, Ober has the highest HR/9 rate (2.13).

He has allowed at least one homer in seven consecutive starts, serving up 17 HRs overall in that span.

The likeliest player to go deep at Target Field tonight is Witt, and I think this price point is worth jumping at.

The shortstop homered in last night’s series opener, improving his slash line to .275/.373/.569 over the past 13 games.

Also, Witt has fantastic numbers against Ober:

12-for-25 (.480)
5 extra-base hits (1 HR)
.765 xSLG

Ober throws a four-seam fastball that averages just 90.4 mph, per Baseball Savant. Given that Witt is slugging .533 against four-seamers from righties, he should be salivating at the thought of that pitch.

Furthermore, Ober’s three secondary pitches to right-hitting players have been whacked all over the yard. His changeup, slider and sweeper have a combined .577 SLG from opposing RHBs.

Key stat: Witt ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity.

Best HR predictions

Harper to hit a home run (+285): Jacob deGrom gets the ball for the Texas Rangers, which initially gave me pause about backing anyone on the Phillies’ side.

But, for as effective as deGrom has been this season (10-4, 2.80 ERA), he’s quite capable of making a mistake that exits the park

deGrom has allowed 10 homers in his past six games. And he’s below the 50th percentile (i.e., below average) in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity this season.

With that in mind, I like Harper as a home run option for Philadelphia. He’s been awesome since the all-star break and has already homered off deGrom twice in his career.

Since the break, Harper is slugging .649 with seven HRs in 19 games.

MLB home run picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 08/09/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers best bets Aug. 9: Freddie Freeman looks to continue second-half surge

After dropping last night’s series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays look to get even with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell gets the ball for L.A. in what will be just his second start in the past four months. Snell and the Dodgers are favoured against Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Dodgers for Aug. 9, including prop bets on Freddie Freeman and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Dodgers

Best bet: Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+100)

It’s easy to take Freeman’s production for granted, given how long he’s been an upper-tier hitter in MLB.

But what he’s doing in his age-35 season is really impressive — and he’s only gotten better as the year has gone on.

Freeman’s average recently crept back up above .300. He’s on track to post at least a .300 BA and a 130 OPS+ for the eighth time in the past 10 years.

Since the all-star break, Freeman has a .348/.420/.536 slash line with 37 total bases in 19 games.

Freeman’s batted ball metrics aren’t eye-popping, but they’re comfortably above average. He ranks in the 65th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Two of his favourite pitches to hit are cutters and sinkers from right-handed pitchers, and he’ll likely see plenty of those tonight.

Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt throws cutters/sinkers nearly 60% of the time to left-hitting batters.

In 66 plate appearances against those pitch types from RHPs, Freeman has a 1.150 OPS this season.

He’s also 3-for-9 with a home run vs. Bassitt.

Key stat: Freeman has gone over 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 21 games.

Jays vs. Dodgers picks

Clement over 0.5 runs (+130): He’s cooled off a bit, but Clement has still been among the best hitters when facing southpaws this season. That makes this an interesting play for me.

Clement has a 150 wRC+ against LHPs, which ranks 19th among 159 qualified hitters. That’s ahead of guys like Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado and even Bo Bichette.

In his past 16 games, Clement has an .857 OPS and 15 runs. He bounces around the lineup a bit, but Toronto’s lineup has been so good that he can score from anywhere.

Clement batted in the No. 2 spot in the past two games, and there was a lefty on the mound both times. The same is true tonight, so hopefully he’s back in that favourable spot.

Blue Jays best bets made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 08/09/2025.