Jordan Horrobin

In one of the final games on Monday’s MLB slate, the Cleveland Guardians are in the desert to face the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The pregame narrative: Two starts removed from a no-hitter bid that fell two outs short, Gavin Williams looks to continue building on a strong run for Cleveland. Both the Guardians and Diamondbacks were on the wrong end of three-game sweeps over the weekend.

Check out my Guardians vs. Diamondbacks predictions, including props on Jose Ramirez and Geraldo Perdomo.

Guardians vs. Diamondbacks predictions

Parlay: Ramirez over 1.5 bases | Perdomo under 1.5 bases | Guardians +0.5 F5 run line (+300)

Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (-113): Ramirez has nearly identical OPS outputs against righties and lefties, but the switch-hitting third baseman typically flashes more power from the left side.

• vs. RHPs (as LHB): .525 SLG, 5.8 HRs per 100 plate appearances.

• vs. LHPs (as RHB): .493 SLG, 2.6 HRs per 100 plate appearances.

Ramirez has also put in some great work since the all-star break, with a 143 wRC+ in 28 games. He’s 15-13 vs. this prop in that span.

Also, the five-time Silver Slugger is 5-for-9 with a double and a home run against Arizona’s Zac Gallen.

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Perdomo under 1.5 total bases (-235): Perdomo is a tough guy to fade these days, as he has a 170 wRC+ since the all-star break (10th in MLB).

But a lot of Perdomo’s offensive value comes from his plate discipline rather than his pop.

• Perdomo ranks in the 94th percentile or better in K%, BB%, chase rate and whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

• He ranks in the 42nd percentile in xSLG (.417), and is modestly over-performing based on his actual SLG (.437).

• Perdomo has gone under 1.5 bases in 13 of his past 22 games.

Perdomo’s elite plate discipline blends well with the wildness of Williams, who has by far the highest walk rate of any qualified starter (4.71 BB/9).

It wouldn’t be surprising for Perdomo to reach safely without putting the ball in play, thus failing to collect any bases along the way.

Guardians +0.5 – first five innings (-139): Once this game gets to the bullpens, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen. But I think Williams gives the Guardians a good chance to win or tie the first five innings.

In 13 starts since the beginning of June, Williams has a 2.75 ERA. The Guardians are only 5-8 in those games, but the right-hander is 3-1 in his decisions.

That’s why I’m taking the bullpen out of the equation by backing Cleveland on an F5 line rather than a full-game line.

Gallen, who’s limping through a career-worst year, has a 5.13 ERA in 13 starts since the beginning of June. He ranks in the 17th percentile in xERA (4.87) and the 25th percentile in xBA (.266).

Guardians vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 3:33 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.

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Logan Gilbert, one of the best strikeout arms in the majors this season, is on the mound Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert should continue rolling against a lineup he has baffled in the past, while Steven Kwan has been scoring at a clip that can’t be ignored. Elsewhere, Gavin Lux is a good bet to go hitless against a wild pitcher.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 18.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lux under 0.5 hits (+140)

This might seem like a questionable pick for a guy who’s batting .300 in his past 20 games, but I think taking a flier on this fade makes sense.

Victor Mederos gets the ball for a second consecutive turn in the Angels’ rotation, and his sky-high walk rate means Lux has a good chance of reaching via walk.

• Lux has an 11.0% walk rate this season, which ranks in the 77th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

• Mederos has issued seven walks in 8.0 innings at the MLB level this season. Across all pro levels, he has 44 walks in 111.0 innings, which equates to a 3.57 BB/9.

• For context, Mederos’ 3.57 BB/9 would be the 10th-highest BB/9 in the majors among qualified arms.

Lux is a severe splits guy who has a much higher 2025 batting average against right-handed pitchers (.295) than against lefties (.184). So once Mederos is lifted from the game, Lux will be an obvious pinch-hit candidate if the Angels turn to a lefty in the bullpen.

Over his past 20 games, Lux has only played a full game five times.

Lux has a .280 BA on the season, but his .254 xBA (42nd percentile) suggests it hasn’t been properly earned.

Key stat: Lux is hitless in 38 of 98 starts (38.8%). That’s a similar implied probability to this prop (41.7%).

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Best MLB picks

Kwan over 0.5 runs (+104): Kwan really hasn’t been very productive lately, but he’s been exceptionally timely as a run scorer.

Over his past 28 games, Kwan has a .256/.321/.376 slash line. But he has 24 runs in that span, going 19-9 vs. this prop.

I’m sure there’s a hearty portion of luck at play here, but the end results make this plus-money price tag enticing to me.

Though it wasn’t confirmed at the time of this writing, Zac Gallen (9-12, 5.31 ERA) is the Diamondbacks’ projected starter. If that happens, it’ll be great news for this play.

Kwan is 4-for-9 with a double, a triple and a walk vs. Gallen.

Gilbert over 6.5 Ks (-114): Limited interleague play means Gilbert doesn’t see the Phillies very often. But when he does, he tends to dominate.

In 80 plate appearances against the Phillies’ active lineup, Gilbert’s numbers look like this:

• .205 opponent BA
• .321 opponent SLG
• 32.5 K%
• 2.5 BB%

Gilbert has always been solid as a strikeout producer, but he’s in an elite tier this season. His 12.45 K/9 is the highest among 127 pitchers with 80-plus innings.

The right-hander has averaged 7.3 Ks per start this season, and he’s catching the Phillies at a good time.

Over the past month, Philadelphia has had the sixth-highest K rate (23.1%).

MLB prop picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.

Samuel Basallo is looking for his first MLB home run, and I think tonight could be the night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: The Baltimore Orioles’ top prospect nearly homered in his first big-league game on Sunday, and his long shot odds make him a player to watch on Monday in Boston. Later on, Manny Machado is due for some damage after weeks of hard contact with nothing to show for it.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 18.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Basallo to hit a home run (+800)

Interested in a long shot play on a blue-chip talent?

Look no further than Basallo, a consensus top-20 MLB prospect.

The 21-year-old debuted on Sunday and was robbed of a home run on a 350-foot flyout. He finished 1-for-4 with a single that left his bat at 101.1 mph, per Baseball Savant.

Basallo’s 60-grade power is something the Orioles are excited for, and it shouldn’t be long before he parks his first home run. He had 23 HRs in 76 games with Triple-A Norfolk before getting promoted.

The left-hitting rookie has a platoon advantage vs. Boston righty Dustin May, too. Basallo slugged .626 against RHPs in Triple-A this season.

May has allowed eight HRs in his past seven starts. And left-hitting players have a .459 SLG against him this year (notably higher than the .384 SLG he allows to right-hitting players).

Unless you’ve been grinding minor league tape — and I haven’t been — there’s not much of a track record to work off of with Basallo.

This is more about buying the hype of a big-time prospect who has raked at lower levels.

Key stat: May ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

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Best HR predictions

Machado to hit a home run (+320): After homering seven times last month, Machado is homerless in August. But he’s still hitting the ball really hard.

• Machado’s 52.8% hard-hit rate ranks in the 96th percentile, and he’s up to a 55% hard-hit rate this month.

• Somehow, he is just 1-for-7 (with a single) on fly balls that have travelled at least 340 feet.

Machado will face Giants starter Robbie Ray, who he homered against back in June.

In terms of career-long numbers, Machado is just 5-for-19 (.263) vs. Ray … but three of those hits left the yard.

From a power perspective, Machado’s slump isn’t as rough as it seems. He’s quite capable of breaking out against Ray.

MLB home run picks made at 11 a.m. ET on 08/18/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays will get their first look at Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes on Monday night in their series opener at PNC Park.

The pregame narrative: Skenes, the odds-on favourite to win the NL Cy Young award, has never faced Toronto — and this should be a great battle for both sides. The Blue Jays have the best team OPS in the second half (.877).

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 18, featuring Skenes and Bo Bichette.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates

Best bet: Under 3.5 runs – first five innings (-141)

For as hot as the Blue Jays’ bats have been since the all-star break, I think the starting pitchers can win out in the early going of this game.

Skenes’ resume speaks for itself, as the reigning NL Rookie of the Year paces the majors in ERA (2.13).

He also has an NL-low 2.52 FIP, with two or fewer runs allowed in 20 of his 25 starts.

Then there’s Kevin Gausman, 11 years older than Skenes, who’s having a solid year and currently trending up.

Gausman has a 2.54 ERA over his past nine starts. This under is only 3-6 in that span, but that’s because of how strong the Blue Jays’ offence has been.

I can see Skenes keeping the Blue Jays in check as they try to get a handle on his elite stuff. Ty France, formerly with the Mariners, is the only active Toronto player who’s faced Skenes already.

There shouldn’t be much to worry about offensively for the Pirates. Gausman is rolling, and Pittsburgh has one of the weakest lineups in the majors.

The Pirates are dead last in MLB in slugging percentage (.346) and F5 runs per game (1.98), per Team Rankings.

Key stat: The under on this 3.5-run F5 total is 17-8 in Skenes’ 25 starts this year.

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Quick picks

Blue Jays moneyline (-108): I’m glad that the vast majority of baseball fans no longer put much weight in the pitcher win stat. It simply wouldn’t be fair to Skenes.

Despite the fireballer’s league-best 2.13 ERA, Pittsburgh is just 12-13 in his starts.

Gausman, by comparison, has a 3.79 ERA. Toronto is 14-10 in his outings.

Starting pitchers still have a lot of say over how a game plays out, but bullpens and batting orders matter a lot, too. The Jays’ bullpen ERA has been better (4.07 vs. 4.24), and the offensive lineups just aren’t comparable.

Pittsburgh is 1-7 with a -36 run differential in its past eight games.

Parlay: Skenes under 6.5 Ks, Bichette 1+ hits (+112): After staring down Skenes’ strikeout prop markets for quite some time, I decided this is how I want to fade him against an exceptionally responsible Toronto lineup.

Among all MLB teams, the Jays have the lowest K rate (17.4%) and whiff rate (21.0%), per Baseball Savant.

They also have the highest chase contact rate (63.7%) and the second-highest in-zone contact rate (85.0%).

This is a team that puts the bat on the ball better than anyone. Skenes is averaging 6.6 Ks per start this year, and Toronto should put him below his typical output.

Instead of fading Skenes at -155 on this prop, though, I’m throwing Bichette into the mix for a plus-money price.

Bichette has a hit in 33 of his past 38 games and is batting .354 in that span. He also leads the majors with 153 hits.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 08/18/2025.

Wednesday’s MLB home run picks have a bit more long-shot potential than usual, as both predictions sit outside the 5-to-1 range.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Randy Arozarena and Jose Altuve have hit a bunch of home runs recently, and there are reasons to back both hitters tonight. Arozarena has a platoon advantage, while Altuve is facing a pitcher who coughs up more than his fair share of homers.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 13.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Arozarena to hit a home run (+510)

Let’s get the main concern out of the way from the jump: Arozarena is facing a pitcher on Wednesday who has only allowed two home runs in 62.1 innings.

Yes, Baltimore left-hander Trevor Rogers has done well to keep the ball in the yard, and his 1.44 ERA is awfully intimidating in the context of this wager. But there are still plenty of things to like about Arozarena’s opportunity tonight.

• Arozarena excels against lefties, posting an OPS north of .800 vs. LHPs in every year of his career. This season, he’s slugging .524 against southpaws.

• Since June 30, he has a .270/.338/.617 slash line with 15 homers in 37 games.

Also, despite his overall success, Rogers has been on the wrong end of a lot of hard contact. He’s allowing a 49.1% hard-hit rate, which ranks in MLB’s fourth percentile (per Baseball Savant).

Rogers tends to get a lot of ground balls, so the hard contact doesn’t hurt nearly as much. But if Arozarena can get something in the air, he just might be able to muscle it over the wall.

Arozarena has a career-high fly ball rate this year (28.3%). For context, the league-average fly ball rate is 24.0%.

Key stat: Arozarena ranks in the 84th percentile in average exit velocity (91.7 mph) and the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate (52.1%).

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Best HR predictions

Altuve to hit a home run (+600): Altuve is only 1-for-8 in his career against Red Sox starter Walker Buehler, which is the only flaw I can see with taking a long shot swing on this prop.

I’m not going to be deterred by a sample size of eight at-bats spaced out over several seasons, though. What these guys are up to right now matters a lot more to me.

Buehler has allowed a ton of home runs this year. His 1.71 HR/9 is sixth-highest among 95 pitchers with 100-plus innings of work.

As for Altuve, he’s been teeing off lately and has four HRs in his past 12 games. He’s well past his prime as a power hitter, but a mini tear like this is worth paying attention to.

And it’s not like Altuve is completely done as a power bat. He’s one of 40 players in the majors this year with more than 20 homers.

MLB home run picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 08/13/2025.