Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

MLB home run picks Aug. 21: Jesus Sanchez looks to snap skid in hitter-friendly Camden Yards

Thursday’s home run picks are priced at +600 and +700 apiece. So if you want some longer odds plays, you’re in the right place.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Jesus Sanchez is struggling mightily at the plate right now, but tonight’s opportunity in Baltimore is a compelling one for left-hitting power bats like him. Earlier on, Christian Yelich has an intriguing price despite a platoon disadvantage.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 21.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Sanchez to hit a home run (+600)

Let’s get the glaring concern out of the way first: Sanchez is in an 0-for-31 tailspin right now.

The left-hitting outfielder is essentially unplayable against left-handed pitchers, but he wields a fair amount of power against right-handers.

Sanchez is slugging .430 vs. RHPs this year, and nine of his 10 homers have come against righties.

Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but we are talking about a 6-to-1 dart throw here. And there’s more to like.

Sanchez will play at Baltimore’s Camden Yards tonight. According to Baseball Savant, that’s the second-most homer-friendly park for lefty hitters in MLB (40% more home runs than average).

On the mound for Baltimore is right-hander Brandon Young, who’s been a long ball victim many times over at his home park.

Young has allowed a .676 SLG in six home starts this year. In just 26.2 innings, he’s coughed up nine HRs at Camden Yards.

Key stat: Sanchez’s .430 SLG vs. righties isn’t remarkable, but his .497 xSLG vs. righties is rather encouraging.

Best HR predictions

Yelich to hit a home run (+700): Yelich is in a lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight against a strong pitcher, but I still think this price stands out in a good way.

Yes, Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga (8-5, 3.06 ERA) is a tough matchup in a general sense. But he’s not impervious to giving up bombs.

Since the start of July, Imanaga has allowed 11 HRs in nine starts. His 1.86 HR/9 rate in that span is the 12th-highest among 74 qualified pitchers.

Yelich is 3-for-8 with a home run vs. Imanaga. Also, the Milwaukee outfielder has seven HRs and a 178 wRC+ in his past 21 games.

MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 08/21/2025.

Dodgers vs. Rockies SGP predictions Aug. 21: Clayton Kershaw should guide L.A. to a series split

Somehow, some way, the league-worst Colorado Rockies have a shot at taking three of four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers this week at Coors Field.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani will miss just his third game of the season for L.A. on Thursday afternoon, but the reigning champion Dodgers are still hefty favourites. That has a lot to do with the presence of Clayton Kershaw, who’s been on a roll this month.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions for Aug. 21, featuring SGP legs on Kershaw and Brenton Doyle.

Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions

Parlay: Dodgers -0.5 F5 | Kershaw over 3.5 Ks | Doyle over 0.5 hits (+335)

Dodgers -0.5 – first five innings (-150): Kershaw is well past his prime, but he isn’t limping to the finish line of his storied career.

The 37-year-old has a 3.01 ERA and a 3.88 FIP over 15 starts, and he’s been at his best in August:

18.0 innings
2 runs
.215 opponent BA
3-0 record

Kershaw has also dominated the Rockies in recent years, allowing just two runs over 17.0 innings vs. Colorado dating back to 2023 (and two of those three starts came at Coors Field, including a win there in June).

Instead of backing the Dodgers to win the game at -245, this F5 price is where I think the value lies.

Especially when you consider the edge Kershaw gives L.A. compared to Colorado starter Chase Dollander. The 23-year-old has a 6.43 ERA in 17 outings, and the Rockies are 5-12 in those games.

On a -0.5 F5 run line, the Dodgers are 7-3-1 in Kershaw’s past 11 starts.

MLB SGP legs

Kershaw over 3.5 strikeouts (-107): Let’s keep the Kershaw discourse rolling, shall we?

For as strong as his 2025 numbers have been, he’s no longer a high-strikeout guy. But this is an attainable number based on the matchup.

Kershaw struck out five Rockies hitters over 6.0 innings back on June 26 (in Colorado).

The Rockies have the second-highest K rate this season (25.3%).

Kershaw’s best putaway pitchers are his signature curveball and his splitter. According to Baseball Savant, the Rockies have the second-highest whiff rate against those offerings from LHPs this year.

Doyle over 0.5 hits (-278): In a game with a 12-run projected total, somebody on the Rockies should be able to drum up some offence. And one worthwhile candidate is Doyle.

The outfielder is 18-for-51 (.353) with a 173 wRC+ in his past 15 games.

He has 1+ hits in 12 of 14 starts in that span.

Doyle homered off Kershaw in June and is 2-for-6 in this matchup overall. Also, he’s batting .327 against LHPs on the season.

Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 08/21/2025.

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CFL 2025 Week 12 odds and betting lines: Stampeders look to gain ground on West-leading Roughriders

The CFL saves its best matchup for last in Week 12, as the Saskatchewan Roughriders visit the Calgary Stampeders.

The latest: Saskatchewan and Calgary are the top teams at this point in the season, and this Saturday night matchup is essentially a pick’em with the second-place Stampeders coming off a bye. On Thursday, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hope to have a key weapon back against the Montreal Alouettes.

Check out the latest CFL Week 12 odds for the football action beginning on Thursday, Aug. 21.

CFL Week 12 odds

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Montreal Alouettes
Spread: Winnipeg -5.5
Date: Aug. 21 at 5:30 p.m. MT

Edmonton Elks vs. Ottawa Redblacks
Spread: Edmonton -2.5
Date: Aug. 22 at 5:30 p.m. MT

BC Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts
Spread: BC -3
Date: Aug. 23 at 1 p.m. MT

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders
Spread: PK
Date: Aug. 23 at 5 p.m. MT

Full CFL betting markets

Week 12 betting notes

A three-game losing streak has bumped the Als out of the top spot in the East Division. Now they’ll face a Bombers squad that hasn’t won on the road since Week 3 (0-3 since). Winnipeg’s standout receiver, Dalton Schoen, was a full practice participant Monday and could suit up for the first time since Week 5.

For the third time this season, Ottawa quarterback Dru Brown is dealing with an injury. Brown suffered a lower-body injury in Week 11 and attempted (unsuccessfully) to limp off the field. He’s “not likely” to play this week against Edmonton, head coach Bob Dyce told reporters, and Dustin Crum was seen taking first-team reps at practice Monday.

The Elks scored a season-high 39 points in their win over the Redblacks in early July, and they’re coming off back-to-back wins … but they still have the worst point differential in the CFL (-50).

Toronto’s Week 8 win over the Blue Bombers is looking more and more like a fluke. The Argos are 1-5 in their past six games, including an eight-point loss vs. lowly Edmonton last week. BC is on a three-game road ATS winning streak and has averaged 33.8 PPG in its past five games.

Saskatchewan (8-1) is atop the CFL standings, but its lone blemish came against Calgary (6-3). The Stamps have been shaky recently, going 1-2 in their past three games with a one-point victory in that span, but they had a bye week to prepare for this one. Calgary’s Vernon Adams Jr. leads the CFL in yards per attempt (10.4), while Saskatchewan’s Trevor Harris is No. 1 in passer rating (121.6).

CFL 2025 Week 12 odds and betting lines: Stampeders look to gain ground on West-leading Roughriders

The CFL saves its best matchup for last in Week 12, as the Saskatchewan Roughriders visit the Calgary Stampeders.

The latest: Saskatchewan and Calgary are the top teams at this point in the season, and this Saturday night matchup is essentially a pick’em with the second-place Stampeders coming off a bye. On Thursday, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hope to have a key weapon back against the Montreal Alouettes.

Check out the latest CFL Week 12 odds for the football action beginning on Thursday, Aug. 21.

CFL Week 12 odds

Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Montreal Alouettes

Edmonton Elks vs. Ottawa Redblacks

BC Lions vs. Toronto Argonauts

Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Calgary Stampeders

Full CFL betting markets

Week 12 betting notes

A three-game losing streak has bumped the Als out of the top spot in the East Division. Now they’ll face a Bombers squad that hasn’t won on the road since Week 3 (0-3 since). Winnipeg’s standout receiver, Dalton Schoen, was a full practice participant Monday and could suit up for the first time since Week 5.

For the third time this season, Ottawa quarterback Dru Brown is dealing with an injury. Brown suffered a lower-body injury in Week 11 and attempted (unsuccessfully) to limp off the field. He’s “not likely” to play this week against Edmonton, head coach Bob Dyce told reporters, and Dustin Crum was seen taking first-team reps at practice Monday.

The Elks scored a season-high 39 points in their win over the Redblacks in early July, and they’re coming off back-to-back wins … but they still have the worst point differential in the CFL (-50).

Toronto’s Week 8 win over the Blue Bombers is looking more and more like a fluke. The Argos are 1-5 in their past six games, including an eight-point loss vs. lowly Edmonton last week. BC is on a three-game road ATS winning streak and has averaged 33.8 PPG in its past five games.

Saskatchewan (8-1) is atop the CFL standings, but its lone blemish came against Calgary (6-3). The Stamps have been shaky recently, going 1-2 in their past three games with a one-point victory in that span, but they had a bye week to prepare for this one. Calgary’s Vernon Adams Jr. leads the CFL in yards per attempt (10.4), while Saskatchewan’s Trevor Harris is No. 1 in passer rating (121.6).

MLB home run picks Aug. 19: Gunnar Henderson, Freddie Freeman are worth backing Tuesday night

Tuesday’s MLB home run picks feature two big names — Gunnar Henderson and Freddie Freeman — against two woeful pitchers.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Henderson and Freeman are both swinging hot bats, but these predictions have almost as much to do with the pitchers they’re facing. Walker Buehler and Austin Gomber have been coughing up a ton of home runs in 2025.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 19.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Henderson to hit a home run (+475)

Henderson homered in last night’s series opener against Boston, building on a really nice run that started in late July.

From July 26 onward, the star third baseman is batting .304 with a .957 OPS. He only has four home runs in that span, but the contact quality has been excellent.

Case in point, Henderson has a .333 xBA during that stretch, per Baseball Savant. So his actual production should be even better.

Tonight’s matchup vs. Buehler should be a good one for Henderson, and that’s definitely a factor with this pick:

Left-hitting players are batting .317 with an .860 OPS against the right-handed Buehler this season.

Buehler has a 1.78 HR/9, which is the fifth-highest rate among 100 pitchers with 100+ innings of work.

For as rough as things have been at times for Buehler, it could actually be worse. His xERA (5.69) and xSLG (.482) both outpace his actual numbers (5.43 ERA, .462 SLG).

Henderson flirted with 40 homers last year, finishing with 37 en route to a fourth-place AL MVP finish.

He’s nowhere near that HR total this year, clubbing just 15 so far, but I’m buying in on his recent form and the Buehler matchup.

Key stat: Henderson ranks in the 91st percentile or better in bat speed, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xBA.

Best HR predictions

Freeman to hit a home run (+240): These odds aren’t particularly exciting, but I felt compelled to highlight someone on the Dodgers’ side against Gomber.

It’s not Gomber’s fault that he pitches for the Rockies, but it is his problem. He has allowed 17 extra-base hits (seven HRs) and a staggering 1.010 OPS in just five outings at Coors Field this season.

Gomber has allowed multiple HRs in all three starts this month.

Freeman is 6-for-16 with two HRs vs. Gomber, including a bomb to centre field in Denver last summer.

Lately, Freeman has powered up against the league as a whole, which is part of the reason he’s my target for L.A.

The first baseman has a .348/.416/.636 slash line and five homers in his past 18 games.

MLB home run picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET on 08/19/2025.

Reds vs. Angels SGP predictions: Bet on Hunter Greene to guide Cincinnati

Sitting just outside the current MLB playoff picture, the Cincinnati Reds vie for a series win on Tuesday night against the Los Angeles Angels.

The pregame narrative: The Reds have won seven games in a row against the Angels dating back to 2023, including a 4-1 victory last night. Hunter Greene (5-3, 2.47 ERA) gets the start on Tuesday for the visiting Reds in his second outing back from the injured list.

Check out my Reds vs. Angels predictions, featuring a fade of Mike Trout in this +255 SGP.

Reds vs. Angels predictions

Parlay: Reds -0.5 F5 run line | Greene over 6.5 Ks | Trout under 1.5 bases (+255)

Reds -0.5 – first five innings (-106): I have more to say about Greene later on, but he’s also a huge reason why I like this pick.

When healthy, Greene is among the most imposing, dominating pitchers in the sport.

Among 99 pitchers with 200+ innings over the past two years, Greene ranks fifth in ERA (2.67), seventh in WHIP (0.991) and 12th in K/9 (10.33).

This year, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of 12 outings.

On the flip side of this matchup is Kyle Hendricks, who has a 5.45 ERA in seven starts since July 1. He has allowed three or more runs in 15 of 23 outings.

Also, the Reds have fared well against Hendricks in the past. Their active lineup is 25-for-74 (.338) with an .887 OPS against him.

MLB SGP legs

Greene over 6.5 Ks (-215): No matter what way you slice it, the Angels are the best possible matchup for Greene to rack up strikeouts.

The Halos have MLB’s highest K rate overall (26.0%), in the second half (26.6%) and against righties (25.8%).

Tonight will be Greene’s first start against the Angels, and I don’t think this lineup will enjoy the ride.

Greene sits at 99.3 mph on his fastball, per Baseball Savant, and ranks in the 85th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate, K% and BB%.

Backing Greene over 7.5 Ks pushes this parlay to +340, and I thought about it.

But since it’s only his second start back from a two-month injury absence, I’d rather play it safer in case he’s on a shorter leash.

Greene is 7-5 vs. this number this season with a 10.8 K/9.

Trout under 1.5 total bases (-186): Trout is one of the most prominent three-true-outcome hitters, but only two of those outcomes are happening on a regular basis right now.

In his past 17 games, Trout has one home run, 16 walks and 28 strikeouts. That’s a 63.5% three-true-outcome rate, which is nearly double MLB’s average (33.4%).

With so many walks and strikeouts lately, Trout is consistently failing to give himself a chance to collect bases. After all, he’s hardly ever putting the ball in play.

I expect more issues in that regard with the high-strikeout arm of Greene on the mound. Trout has gone 10 consecutive games without an extra-base hit.

Reds vs. Angels predictions made at 1:13 p.m. ET on 08/19/2025.

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MLB home run picks Aug. 19: Gunnar Henderson, Freddie Freeman are worth backing Tuesday night

Tuesday’s MLB home run picks feature two big names — Gunnar Henderson and Freddie Freeman — against two woeful pitchers.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Henderson and Freeman are both swinging hot bats, but these predictions have almost as much to do with the pitchers they’re facing. Walker Buehler and Austin Gomber have been coughing up a ton of home runs in 2025.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 19.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Henderson to hit a home run (+475)

Henderson homered in last night’s series opener against Boston, building on a really nice run that started in late July.

From July 26 onward, the star third baseman is batting .304 with a .957 OPS. He only has four home runs in that span, but the contact quality has been excellent.

Case in point, Henderson has a .333 xBA during that stretch, per Baseball Savant. So his actual production should be even better.

Tonight’s matchup vs. Buehler should be a good one for Henderson, and that’s definitely a factor with this pick:

Left-hitting players are batting .317 with an .860 OPS against the right-handed Buehler this season.

Buehler has a 1.78 HR/9, which is the fifth-highest rate among 100 pitchers with 100+ innings of work.

For as rough as things have been at times for Buehler, it could actually be worse. His xERA (5.69) and xSLG (.482) both outpace his actual numbers (5.43 ERA, .462 SLG).

Henderson flirted with 40 homers last year, finishing with 37 en route to a fourth-place AL MVP finish.

He’s nowhere near that HR total this year, clubbing just 15 so far, but I’m buying in on his recent form and the Buehler matchup.

Key stat: Henderson ranks in the 91st percentile or better in bat speed, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xBA.

Best HR predictions

Freeman to hit a home run (+290): These odds aren’t particularly exciting, but I felt compelled to highlight someone on the Dodgers’ side against Gomber.

It’s not Gomber’s fault that he pitches for the Rockies, but it is his problem. He has allowed 17 extra-base hits (seven HRs) and a staggering 1.010 OPS in just five outings at Coors Field this season.

Gomber has allowed multiple HRs in all three starts this month.

Freeman is 6-for-16 with two HRs vs. Gomber, including a bomb to centre field in Denver last summer.

Lately, Freeman has powered up against the league as a whole, which is part of the reason he’s my target for L.A.

The first baseman has a .348/.416/.636 slash line and five homers in his past 18 games.

MLB home run picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 08/19/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates best bets Aug. 19: Bet on Varsho to mash, Toronto to lead at F5 mark

Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night as they look to even their series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The pregame narrative: Scherzer has looked great in August and gives Toronto a good chance to take an early lead. In the prop market, Daulton Varsho and former Blue Jay Spencer Horwitz are worth backing on plus-money plays.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 19.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates

Best bet: Horwitz over 0.5 runs (+125)

Scherzer has been solid but not dominant for the Blue Jays. None of his 10 starts have been scoreless, and with that in mind, Horwitz has as good a chance as any Pittsburgh player to score on Tuesday.

The ex-Jay has been the Pirates’ leadoff man for the better part of two months, and he’s put together some strong numbers lately.

Check out what Horwitz has accomplished in his past 25 games:

.326 BA
.388 OBP
.506 SLG
14 runs

There’s a notable platoon advantage for the left-hitting Horwitz, too, as he’s posted a career .803 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and a .516 OPS vs. lefties.

Scherzer, meanwhile, has allowed a higher OPS to left-hitting players (.753) than right-hitting players (.703) this season.

There’s nothing flashy about this pick, because Horwitz is far from a flashy hitter, but the price is compelling for a top-of-lineup guy with a platoon advantage who’s excelling right now.

Key stat: Horwitz has scored in 10 of his past 21 starts.

Quick picks

Blue Jays -0.5 – first five innings (-118): Toronto was level with the Paul Skenes-led Pirates through five innings yesterday. Tonight, I expect the Jays to pull ahead by the halfway mark.

Scherzer is off to a great start this month, with three quality outings:

vs. Royals (Aug. 2): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K
at Dodgers (Aug. 8): 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 5 K
vs. Cubs (Aug. 14): 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 K

Another performance like that would put Toronto in a great position to cash this bet. Especially considering the Pirates are scoring the fewest F5 runs per game (1.98), per Team Rankings.

Keller has been in much worse shape than Scherzer recently, coughing up 19 runs over his past five outings (7.54 ERA).

Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+125): Varsho has a lot of all-or-nothing in his offensive profile, but he mashes righty pitching pretty routinely.

The stocky outfielder is slugging .692 with 21 extra-base hits (13 home runs) in 35 games vs. RHPs this season.

He also has a .295/.404/.682 slash line this month after missing all of June and July with a hamstring injury.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is dealing with some hamstring tightness of his own, which should bump Varsho up from the heart of the order into the No. 3 or 4 spot tonight. That doesn’t matter much, but it could lead to an extra opportunity at the plate.

Keller has allowed a notably higher OPS to left-hitting players (.752) compared to right-hitting players (.650).

Blue Jays best bets made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 08/19/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates best bets Aug. 19: Bet on Varsho to mash, Toronto to lead at F5 mark

Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night as they look to even their series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The pregame narrative: Scherzer has looked great in August and gives Toronto a good chance to take an early lead. In the prop market, Daulton Varsho and former Blue Jay Spencer Horwitz are worth backing on plus-money plays.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Pirates for Aug. 19.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Pirates

Best bet: Horwitz over 0.5 runs (+125)

Scherzer has been solid but not dominant for the Blue Jays. None of his 10 starts have been scoreless, and with that in mind, Horwitz has as good a chance as any Pittsburgh player to score on Tuesday.

The ex-Jay has been the Pirates’ leadoff man for the better part of two months, and he’s put together some strong numbers lately.

Check out what Horwitz has accomplished in his past 25 games:

.326 BA
.388 OBP
.506 SLG
14 runs

There’s a notable platoon advantage for the left-hitting Horwitz, too, as he’s posted a career .803 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers and a .516 OPS vs. lefties.

Scherzer, meanwhile, has allowed a higher OPS to left-hitting players (.753) than right-hitting players (.703) this season.

There’s nothing flashy about this pick, because Horwitz is far from a flashy hitter, but the price is compelling for a top-of-lineup guy with a platoon advantage who’s excelling right now.

Key stat: Horwitz has scored in 10 of his past 21 starts.

Quick picks

Blue Jays -0.5 – first five innings (-107): Toronto was level with the Paul Skenes-led Pirates through five innings yesterday. Tonight, I expect the Jays to pull ahead by the halfway mark.

Scherzer is off to a great start this month, with three quality outings:

vs. Royals (Aug. 2): 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K
at Dodgers (Aug. 8): 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 5 K
vs. Cubs (Aug. 14): 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 K

Another performance like that would put Toronto in a great position to cash this bet. Especially considering the Pirates are scoring the fewest F5 runs per game (1.98), per Team Rankings.

Keller has been in much worse shape than Scherzer recently, coughing up 19 runs over his past five outings (7.54 ERA).

Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+120): Varsho has a lot of all-or-nothing in his offensive profile, but he mashes righty pitching pretty routinely.

The stocky outfielder is slugging .692 with 21 extra-base hits (13 home runs) in 35 games vs. RHPs this season.

He also has a .295/.404/.682 slash line this month after missing all of June and July with a hamstring injury.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is dealing with some hamstring tightness of his own, which should bump Varsho up from the heart of the order into the No. 3 or 4 spot tonight. That doesn’t matter much, but it could lead to an extra opportunity at the plate.

Keller has allowed a notably higher OPS to left-hitting players (.752) compared to right-hitting players (.650).

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 08/19/2025.

MLB prop bets Aug. 18: Bet on Kwan to score, Gilbert to rack up strikeouts

Logan Gilbert, one of the best strikeout arms in the majors this season, is on the mound Monday night against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Gilbert should continue rolling against a lineup he has baffled in the past, while Steven Kwan has been scoring at a clip that can’t be ignored. Elsewhere, Gavin Lux is a good bet to go hitless against a wild pitcher.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Aug. 18.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Lux under 0.5 hits (+125)

This might seem like a questionable pick for a guy who’s batting .300 in his past 20 games, but I think taking a flier on this fade makes sense.

Victor Mederos gets the ball for a second consecutive turn in the Angels’ rotation, and his sky-high walk rate means Lux has a good chance of reaching via walk.

Lux has an 11.0% walk rate this season, which ranks in the 77th percentile, per Baseball Savant.

Mederos has issued seven walks in 8.0 innings at the MLB level this season. Across all pro levels, he has 44 walks in 111.0 innings, which equates to a 3.57 BB/9.

For context, Mederos’ 3.57 BB/9 would be the 10th-highest BB/9 in the majors among qualified arms.

Lux is a severe splits guy who has a much higher 2025 batting average against right-handed pitchers (.295) than against lefties (.184). So once Mederos is lifted from the game, Lux will be an obvious pinch-hit candidate if the Angels turn to a lefty in the bullpen.

Over his past 20 games, Lux has only played a full game five times.

Lux has a .280 BA on the season, but his .254 xBA (42nd percentile) suggests it hasn’t been properly earned.

Key stat: Lux is hitless in 38 of 98 starts (38.8%). That’s a similar implied probability to this prop (41.7%).

Best MLB picks

Kwan over 0.5 runs (-108): Kwan really hasn’t been very productive lately, but he’s been exceptionally timely as a run scorer.

Over his past 28 games, Kwan has a .256/.321/.376 slash line. But he has 24 runs in that span, going 19-9 vs. this prop.

I’m sure there’s a hearty portion of luck at play here, but the end results make this plus-money price tag enticing to me.

Though it wasn’t confirmed at the time of this writing, Zac Gallen (9-12, 5.31 ERA) is the Diamondbacks’ projected starter. If that happens, it’ll be great news for this play.

Kwan is 4-for-9 with a double, a triple and a walk vs. Gallen.

Gilbert over 6.5 Ks (-106): Limited interleague play means Gilbert doesn’t see the Phillies very often. But when he does, he tends to dominate.

In 80 plate appearances against the Phillies’ active lineup, Gilbert’s numbers look like this:

.205 opponent BA
.321 opponent SLG
32.5 K%
2.5 BB%

Gilbert has always been solid as a strikeout producer, but he’s in an elite tier this season. His 12.45 K/9 is the highest among 127 pitchers with 80-plus innings.

The right-hander has averaged 7.3 Ks per start this season, and he’s catching the Phillies at a good time.

Over the past month, Philadelphia has had the sixth-highest K rate (23.1%).

MLB prop picks made at 4 p.m. ET on 08/18/2025.