Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

College football Week 0 parlay picks: Bet on Western Kentucky to win, Donelson to run wild for Fresno State

College football picks

On Saturday, a fresh college football season begins with a five-pack of Week 0 matchups.

The pregame narrative: Kansas State and Iowa State kick things off at noon ET in Ireland, but there’s plenty of action to follow. I’m targeting rising sophomore running back Bryson Donelson (Fresno State) in what could be a breakout game against the Kansas Jayhawks.

My +335 college football parlay picks feature a prediction on the Sam Houston State Bearkats vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers game.

College football picks: Week 0

Parlay: Donelson over 66.5 rush yards | Western Kentucky ML | Hawaii over 26.5 points (+335)

Donelson over 66.5 rushing yards (-110): Donelson deserves more work in the Fresno State Bulldogs’ backfield this year.

Last season as a true freshman, Donelson rushed for 6.0 yards per carry (462 yards on 77 rushes). He split time with Elijah Gilliam, who averaged 3.9 YPC (466 yards on 121 carries).

Both tailbacks have returned, but Donelson has shown enough that he should be the feature back. And against a suspect Kansas run defence, that’s all you can ask for.

Kansas’ defence ranked 124th in EPA per play last season, according to Game On Paper.

Also, though Fresno State has been a pass-heavy team in the past, I could see a different approach coming this year.

  • Starting quarterback E.J. Warner, who transferred in from Rice, led the American Conference in interceptions each of the past three seasons.
  • Fresno State’s new offensive coordinator, Josh Davis, schemed an offence at the University of South Dakota (FCS) last year that yielded two 1,000-yard rushers.

Full NCAAF betting markets

NCAAF parlay picks

Western Kentucky moneyline (-435): This has by far the shortest odds of the three legs, and rightfully so.

The Hilltoppers won on the road against the Bearkats last year, 31-14. Now, they’ll vie for a third win in as many seasons since Sam Houston State joined Conference USA.

SHSU is completely starting over on defence. Literally. Not a single starter is back, and even counting the players transferring in, there are only four Bearkat defenders on the roster who had 110+ FBS snaps last season.

WKU has a lot of retooling to do on offence. But at least its new QB (Maverick McIvor) and offensive coordinator (Rick Bowie) are both coming from the same FCS school, Abilene Christian.

The Hilltoppers went 5-1 at home last year (4-2 ATS) and should get off to a good start as 10-point favourites.

Hawaii over 26.5 points (-112): Andrew Luck is back with Stanford Cardinal as the general manager, and he brought in longtime NFL coach — and Super Bowl champion — Frank Reich to coach.

But a couple of notable names on the sidelines can’t put lipstick on the pig that is Stanford football.

The on-field name that matters most in this game is Micah Alejado, the sophomore quarterback for the Hawaii Warriors.

  • Alejado, born in Honolulu, threw for 125 touchdowns and just four interceptions during his high school career at heralded Bishop Gorman in Las Vegas.
  • In 2022, he was named national junior of the year by MaxPreps.
  • During his lone start for the Warriors as a true freshman last year, Alejado completed 37 of 57 passes for 469 yards, five TDs and zero INTs. Electric stuff, even if it was against the hapless New Mexico Lobos.

Stanford allowed 33.7 PPG last season, and nine of its 12 opponents cleared this total. I’m buying into the Alejado experience at home in Week 0.

College football picks made at 1:19 p.m. on 08/22/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Marlins best bet Aug. 22: Ride with George Springer in series opener

Blue Jays best bets

Shane Bieber makes his season debut on Friday night for the Toronto Blue Jays in their series opener against the Miami Marlins.

The pregame narrative: Bieber, who the Jays acquired at the trade deadline, hasn’t pitched since April 2024 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. But he’s turned in some very encouraging rehab outings this month, and his Jays are favoured to win in South Florida.

Check out my Blue Jays best bet vs. the Marlins for Aug. 22, featuring George Springer.

Blue Jays best bet vs. Marlins

Best bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-125)

Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat for Toronto, but his stellar results necessitated a lineup promotion.

By July, Springer was up in the No. 2 spot. And in August, he’s back to leadoff — where he’s thrived for most of his career.

And obviously, that’s prime real estate when we’re talking about a run prop. Especially for one of the highest-scoring clubs in MLB (4.88 runs/game, seventh).

Springer has earned the leadoff reinstatement by posting a .905 OPS this season. In 16 games since the all-star break, he has a blistering .397/.486/.667 slash line.

Oh, and he’s scored a run in 14 straight games.

Ryan Gusto (7-5, 4.89 ERA) will reportedly come up from the minors to start for the Marlins. His Baseball Savant page is littered with below-average metrics, including a 45.3% hard-hit rate (16th percentile) and a .250 xBA (47th percentile).

Roughly two-thirds of what Gusto throws to right-hitting players are four-seamers and sinkers. Springer pulverizes those pitches.

Against four-seamers and sinkers from RHPs this season, Springer has a .348/.443/.600 slash line in 159 plate appearances.

Key stat: Springer ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and chase rate.

Blue Jays best bet made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 08/22/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Marlins best bets Aug. 22: Ride with Springer, look for Bieber to excel in season debut

Blue Jays best bets

Shane Bieber makes his season debut on Friday night for the Toronto Blue Jays in their series opener against the Miami Marlins.

The pregame narrative: Bieber, who the Jays acquired at the trade deadline, hasn’t pitched since April 2024 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. But he’s turned in some very encouraging rehab outings this month, and his Jays are favoured to win in South Florida.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Marlins for Aug. 22, featuring Bieber and George Springer.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Marlins

Best bet: Bieber over 16.5 outs (-115)

It’s been nearly a year and a half since Bieber last pitched in an MLB game, so it’s not easy to get a feel for what Friday will bring.

One thing I do know is that he’s absolutely built up enough to blow by this line.

Here’s how Bieber’s three rehab starts with Triple-A Buffalo went:

  • Aug. 3: 5.0 IP (15 outs) on 62 pitches
  • Aug. 9: 5.2 IP (17 outs) on 78 pitches
  • Aug. 15: 7.0 IP (21 outs) on 90 pitches

Notice the upward trajectory? Stamina shouldn’t be an issue here.

So it’ll likely come down to effectiveness, and against a subpar Marlins lineup, I’ll take my chances.

Miami ranks 20th in wRC+ (96) this season and 18th in runs per game (4.32).

The Marlins also have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate and the eighth-lowest walk rate, so Bieber should be able to stack quick outs.

Coming off an off-day, there’s certainly a risk that Toronto turns to its rested bullpen early. But it won’t be because Bieber is ill-conditioned to work into the sixth — and I don’t think Miami has the firepower to chase him, either.

Key stat: From 2022-24, Bieber averaged 18.9 outs per game. He was 44-10 vs. this outs prop in that span.

Jays prop bet

Springer over 0.5 runs (-130): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat for Toronto, but his stellar results necessitated a lineup promotion.

By July, Springer was up in the No. 2 spot. And in August, he’s back to leadoff — where he’s thrived for most of his career.

And obviously, that’s prime real estate when we’re talking about a run prop.

Springer has earned the leadoff reinstatement by posting a .905 OPS this season. In 16 games since the all-star break, he has a blistering .397/.486/.667 slash line.

Oh, and he’s scored a run in 14 straight games.

Ryan Gusto (7-5, 4.89 ERA) will reportedly come up from the minors to start for the Marlins. His Baseball Savant page is littered with below-average metrics, including a 45.3% hard-hit rate (16th percentile) and a .250 xBA (47th percentile).

Blue Jays best bets made at 12 p.m. ET on 08/22/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 22: Target Brandon Lowe and Wyatt Langford on Friday night

MLB home run picks

Friday night’s MLB home run picks are Brandon Lowe and Wyatt Langford.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Lowe is scorching hot at the plate right now and playing in a very homer-friendly park. As for Langford, the opposing starter on the mound is a key reason why he’s a strong candidate to go yard.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 22.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Lowe to hit a home run (+320)

Lowe has always possessed a solid power bat, but his potential is dimmed by all the swing-and-miss in his game.

The all-star second baseman has thumped 24 homers in 104 games, marking his third consecutive season above the 20-homer plateau. Then again, he’s in line for a third consecutive season with a strikeout rate north of 25.0%.

Sometimes, whiffs are a worthwhile tradeoff at the expense of swinging for the fences. And against a pitcher like Miles Mikolas, who Lowe will see tonight, I’m not concerned about strikeouts.

Mikolas averages 92.7 mph on his fastball, per Baseball Savant, which is well below the 95.0-mph average for right-handed pitchers. He also ranks in the bottom 11th percentile (or worse) in chase rate, whiff rate and K rate.

If Lowe can stay on Mikolas’ four-seam fastball, I love his chances of parking one over the wall at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay.

  • Left-hitting players are 26-for-74 (.351) with a .770 SLG and eight HRs off Mikolas’ four-seamer.
  • Lowe is 24-for-69 (.348) with a .725 SLG and eight HRs against four-seamers from RHPs this season.

Tampa’s temporary home park has been the fourth-friendliest home run venue this season, allowing 21% more long balls than average (based on Baseball Savant’s park factors data).

It’s a perfect setting for Lowe to tee off.

Key stat: Lowe has five homers and a .596 SLG in his past 13 games.

Best HR predictions

Langford to hit a home run (+300): This pick has a lot to do with Cleveland’s starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, who has been giving out HRs like free candy since the all-star break.

Cecconi has a 2.06 HR/9 in the second half, which is the sixth-highest rate among 76 qualified pitchers. It equates to eight homers in 35.0 innings.

Langford, the fourth-overall pick in the 2023 draft, bashed 47 homers in just 134 career games at the collegiate level. We haven’t seen that power fully translate yet, but there are signs.

For example, his 13.3% barrel rate this year ranks in the 85th percentile, while his 91.2 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 77th percentile.

Langford has homered in two of his past four games, and he’s slugging .500 since July 27. He’s a worthwhile pick to keep up the home run barrage against Cecconi.

MLB home run picks made at 11:03 a.m. ET on 08/22/2025.

MLB home run picks Aug. 22: Target Brandon Lowe and Wyatt Langford on Friday night

MLB home run picks

Friday night’s MLB home run picks are Brandon Lowe and Wyatt Langford.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Lowe is scorching hot at the plate right now and playing in a very homer-friendly park. As for Langford, the opposing starter on the mound is a key reason why he’s a strong candidate to go yard.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 22.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Lowe to hit a home run (+380)

Lowe has always possessed a solid power bat, but his potential is dimmed by all the swing-and-miss in his game.

The all-star second baseman has thumped 24 homers in 104 games, marking his third consecutive season above the 20-homer plateau. Then again, he’s in line for a third consecutive season with a strikeout rate north of 25.0%.

Sometimes, whiffs are a worthwhile tradeoff at the expense of swinging for the fences. And against a pitcher like Miles Mikolas, who Lowe will see tonight, I’m not concerned about strikeouts.

Mikolas averages 92.7 mph on his fastball, per Baseball Savant, which is well below the 95.0-mph average for right-handed pitchers. He also ranks in the bottom 11th percentile (or worse) in chase rate, whiff rate and K rate.

If Lowe can stay on Mikolas’ four-seam fastball, I love his chances of parking one over the wall at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay.

  • Left-hitting players are 26-for-74 (.351) with a .770 SLG and eight HRs off Mikolas’ four-seamer.
  • Lowe is 24-for-69 (.348) with a .725 SLG and eight HRs against four-seamers from RHPs this season.

Tampa’s temporary home park has been the fourth-friendliest home run venue this season, allowing 21% more long balls than average (based on Baseball Savant’s park factors data).

It’s a perfect setting for Lowe to tee off.

Key stat: Lowe has five homers and a .596 SLG in his past 13 games.

Best HR predictions

Langford to hit a home run (+370): This pick has a lot to do with Cleveland’s starting pitcher, Slade Cecconi, who has been giving out HRs like free candy since the all-star break.

Cecconi has a 2.06 HR/9 in the second half, which is the sixth-highest rate among 76 qualified pitchers. It equates to eight homers in 35.0 innings.

Langford, the fourth-overall pick in the 2023 draft, bashed 47 homers in just 134 career games at the collegiate level. We haven’t seen that power fully translate yet, but there are signs.

For example, his 13.3% barrel rate this year ranks in the 85th percentile, while his 91.2 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 77th percentile.

Langford has homered in two of his past four games, and he’s slugging .500 since July 27. He’s a worthwhile pick to keep up the home run barrage against Cecconi.

MLB home run picks made at 10:03 a.m. ET on 08/22/2025.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State Week 0 college football predictions: Look for Avery Johnson, Chase Sowell to shine in Ireland

Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions

College football makes a triumphant return on Saturday in Dublin, Ireland, where the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats square off in a key Big 12 matchup.

The pregame narrative: No. 17 Kansas State is the conference favourite, and it’ll have a tough test out of the gate against No. 22 Iowa State. The Wildcats are 3-point favourites at this season opener overseas.

Check out my Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions — featuring Chase Sowell and Avery Johnson — for the Week 0 matchup on Saturday, Aug. 23.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions

Best Bet: Sowell over 56.5 receiving yards (-118)

On an international stage, I expect Sowell to have a coming-out party.

Coming over from the East Carolina Pirates, Sowell will make his debut for a Cyclones team that desperately needs to replenish its stores in the receiving room.

Iowa State had a pair of 1,100-yard receivers last year, Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel, and both players have since moved on to the NFL. Behind Higgins and Noel, no one in Ames had more than 300 receiving yards.

With that in mind, Sowell’s opportunity from the jump should be massive. He has the size, pedigree and big-play potential to be the alpha of this offence.

  • Listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds on ESPN, Sowell is built like a legitimate X receiver.
  • 247 Sports ranked him as the No. 7 transfer WR (and the No. 30 transfer overall) this offseason.
  • With East Carolina last year, Sowell averaged 19.9 yards per reception in nine games.

Kansas State’s secondary should have some growing pains earlier in the season, too, which would help Sowell find some daylight. The Wildcats graduated two defensive backs to the NFL and are set to feature four new starters in the season opener.

The Wildcats’ four new projected starters in the secondary saw a combined 200 snaps at the FBS level last year.

Remember, Iowa State no longer has its top wideouts, but its starting quarterback — Rocco Becht — is still under centre. I think Sowell will quickly become his top target.

Key stat: Sowell averaged 75.3 yards per game last season with East Carolina, going 6-3 vs. this prop.

Full college football betting markets

Cyclones vs. Wildcats picks

Johnson over 45.5 rushing yards (-118): Johnson is a dual-threat quarterback who was particularly active in the run game against Iowa State when these teams met last season.

On Nov. 30, 2024, Johnson rushed 13 times for 64 yards. That includes being sacked once (in college football, unlike the NFL, sacks count against QB rushing yards).

K-State’s top tailback in 2024, DJ Giddens, now plays for the Indianapolis Colts. Johnson was right behind Giddens in team rushing yards with 605.

Iowa State’s defence was mediocre against the run last year, ranking 73rd in expected points added (EPA) per rush, according to Game On Paper. That might explain why Johnson was so successful.

Johnson rushed with confidence down the stretch last season, going 4-2 vs. this prop in his final six matchups while averaging 10.3 carries per game.

Over 50.5 points (-112): Both rosters have a lot of turnover, which is commonplace in NCAA Division I football.

But they both retained their talented QBs, and that gives me faith that offence can win out in Ireland.

Becht ranked No. 3 in passing yards in the Big 12 last year (3,505), pairing that with a 25:9 TD-to-INT ratio.

Johnson, meanwhile, led Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards (605) and was third in rushing TDs (seven) — one behind Becht, actually.

K-State and ISU combined for 50 points in last year’s matchup, so inching just north of that mark is all I’m asking for.

In 2024, overs were 2-0 when the Cyclones were underdogs, and overs were 6-5-1 when the Wildcats were favoured.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions made at 3:10 p.m. ET 08/21/2025.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State Week 0 college football predictions: Look for Avery Johnson, Chase Sowell to shine in Ireland

Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions

College football makes a triumphant return on Saturday in Dublin, Ireland, where the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats square off in a key Big 12 matchup.

The pregame narrative: No. 17 Kansas State is the conference favourite, and it’ll have a tough test out of the gate against No. 22 Iowa State. The Wildcats are 3-point favourites at this season opener overseas.

Check out my Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions — featuring Chase Sowell and Avery Johnson — for the Week 0 matchup on Saturday, Aug. 23.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions

Best Bet: Sowell over 57.5 receiving yards (-120)

On an international stage, I expect Sowell to have a coming-out party.

Coming over from the East Carolina Pirates, Sowell will make his debut for a Cyclones team that desperately needs to replenish its stores in the receiving room.

Iowa State had a pair of 1,100-yard receivers last year, Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel, and both players have since moved on to the NFL. Behind Higgins and Noel, no one in Ames had more than 300 receiving yards.

With that in mind, Sowell’s opportunity from the jump should be massive. He has the size, pedigree and big-play potential to be the alpha of this offence.

  • Listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds on ESPN, Sowell is built like a legitimate X receiver.
  • 247 Sports ranked him as the No. 7 transfer WR (and the No. 30 transfer overall) this offseason.
  • With East Carolina last year, Sowell averaged 19.9 yards per reception in nine games.

Kansas State’s secondary should have some growing pains earlier in the season, too, which would help Sowell find some daylight. The Wildcats graduated two defensive backs to the NFL and are set to feature four new starters in the season opener.

The Wildcats’ four new projected starters in the secondary saw a combined 200 snaps at the FBS level last year.

Remember, Iowa State no longer has its top wideouts, but its starting quarterback — Rocco Becht — is still under centre. I think Sowell will quickly become his top target.

Key stat: Sowell averaged 75.3 yards per game last season with East Carolina, going 6-3 vs. this prop.

Full college football betting markets

Cyclones vs. Wildcats picks

Johnson over 50.5 rushing yards (-120): Johnson is a dual-threat quarterback who was particularly active in the run game against Iowa State when these teams met last season.

On Nov. 30, 2024, Johnson rushed 13 times for 64 yards. That includes being sacked once (in college football, unlike the NFL, sacks count against QB rushing yards).

K-State’s top tailback in 2024, DJ Giddens, now plays for the Indianapolis Colts. Johnson was right behind Giddens in team rushing yards with 605.

Iowa State’s defence was mediocre against the run last year, ranking 73rd in expected points added (EPA) per rush, according to Game On Paper. That might explain why Johnson was so successful.

Johnson rushed with confidence down the stretch last season, going 4-2 vs. this prop in his final six matchups while averaging 10.3 carries per game.

Over 50.5 points (-112): Both rosters have a lot of turnover, which is commonplace in NCAA Division I football.

But they both retained their talented QBs, and that gives me faith that offence can win out in Ireland.

Becht ranked No. 3 in passing yards in the Big 12 last year (3,505), pairing that with a 25:9 TD-to-INT ratio.

Johnson, meanwhile, led Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards (605) and was third in rushing TDs (seven) — one behind Becht, actually.

K-State and ISU combined for 50 points in last year’s matchup, so inching just north of that mark is all I’m asking for.

In 2024, overs were 2-0 when the Cyclones were underdogs, and overs were 6-5-1 when the Wildcats were favoured.

Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions made at 3:10 p.m. ET 08/21/2025.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks Aug. 21: Bet on Luis Gil, Roman Anthony in series opener

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets

Two bitter AL East rivals clash on Thursday night in the Bronx as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are chasing the Toronto Blue Jays in the division standings, and this four-game set presents an opportunity to gain some hard-earned ground. Luis Gil will start for the Yankees after a few bumpy outings to begin his injury-shortened campaign.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 21, featuring Gil and Roman Anthony.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks

Best bet: Gil over 15.5 outs (+105)

Gil hasn’t been great so far in his brief 2025 experience, but this price is worth a play on such a modest line.

The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year has allowed 23 baserunners in just 14.0 innings, which is certainly not a trend I want to see continuing tonight in the Bronx.

Walks have been an issue for Gil in the past, and they continue to be an issue now. His 5.1 BB/9 this year is higher than last year … and he had an AL-high 77 walks in 2024.

Thanks to a career 10.3 K/9 rate, though, Gil is often able to wriggle out of the fires he starts.

Also, the Red Sox aren’t likely to take full advantage of his wildness. Boston ranks 17th in MLB in walk rate.

Boston’s offence isn’t in its sharpest form right now, either, with just a .235/.326/.371 slash line (92 wRC+) in the past two weeks.

And Gil has great numbers against this lineup, albeit in a small sample:

  • 4-for-28 (.143)
  • 0 extra-base hits
  • 9 Ks (30 K%)
  • 2 walks

The Yankees’ bullpen isn’t particularly taxed, but all three of its high-leverage arms were put to use last night. And the team won’t have another off-day until September.

So if Gil can keep the walk count relatively low, working into the sixth is perfectly doable.

Key stat: After being eased in during his season debut, Gil has cashed this bet in back-to-back starts.

Quick pick

Anthony over 0.5 runs (-108): I don’t expect Gil to be perfect tonight, and Anthony is the type of hitter who should profile well against him.

The rookie outfielder has a sky-high walk rate of 14.6%, which would be among the highest in the league if he was a qualified hitter. For context, the average walk rate in MLB is 8.4%.

Anthony has a .423 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, with nearly as many walks (28) as strikeouts (34). So he clearly sees the ball well from that side.

And as a leadoff man, Anthony is typically in the best position to score among anyone in Boston’s lineup. He has 18 runs in his past 18 games and has cashed this bet in 26 of 52 starts.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks made at 2:20 p.m. ET on 08/21/2025.

MLB home run best bet Aug. 21: Jesus Sanchez looks to snap skid in hitter-friendly Camden Yards

MLB home run picks

Thursday’s home run best bet is priced at +500. So if you want a play with pretty long odds, you’re in the right place.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Jesus Sanchez is struggling mightily at the plate right now, but tonight’s opportunity in Baltimore is a compelling one for left-hitting power bats like him.

Check out the best MLB home run best bet and analysis for Aug. 21.

MLB home run best bet

Best bet: Sanchez to hit a home run (+500)

Let’s get the glaring concern out of the way first: Sanchez is in an 0-for-31 tailspin right now.

The left-hitting outfielder is essentially unplayable against left-handed pitchers, but he wields a fair amount of power against right-handers.

Sanchez is slugging .430 vs. RHPs this year, and nine of his 10 homers have come against righties.

Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but we are talking about a 6-to-1 dart throw here. And there’s more to like.

Sanchez will play at Baltimore’s Camden Yards tonight. According to Baseball Savant, that’s the second-most homer-friendly park for lefty hitters in MLB (40% more home runs than average).

On the mound for Baltimore is right-hander Brandon Young, who’s been a long ball victim many times over at his home park.

Young has allowed a .676 SLG in six home starts this year. In just 26.2 innings, he’s coughed up nine HRs at Camden Yards.

Key stat: Sanchez’s .430 SLG vs. righties isn’t remarkable, but his .497 xSLG vs. righties is rather encouraging.

MLB home run best bet made at 2:13 p.m. ET on 08/21/2025.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks Aug. 21: Bet on Luis Gil, Roman Anthony in plus-money plays

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop bets

Two bitter AL East rivals clash on Thursday night in the Bronx as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are chasing the Toronto Blue Jays in the division standings, and this four-game set presents an opportunity to gain some hard-earned ground. Luis Gil will start for the Yankees after a few bumpy outings to begin his injury-shortened campaign.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 21, featuring Gil and Roman Anthony.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks

Best bet: Gil over 15.5 outs (+108)

Gil hasn’t been great so far in his brief 2025 experience, but this price is worth a play on such a modest line.

The 2024 AL Rookie of the Year has allowed 23 baserunners in just 14.0 innings, which is certainly not a trend I want to see continuing tonight in the Bronx.

Walks have been an issue for Gil in the past, and they continue to be an issue now. His 5.1 BB/9 this year is higher than last year … and he had an AL-high 77 walks in 2024.

Thanks to a career 10.3 K/9 rate, though, Gil is often able to wriggle out of the fires he starts.

Also, the Red Sox aren’t likely to take full advantage of his wildness. Boston ranks 17th in MLB in walk rate.

Boston’s offence isn’t in its sharpest form right now, either, with just a .235/.326/.371 slash line (92 wRC+) in the past two weeks.

And Gil has great numbers against this lineup, albeit in a small sample:

  • 4-for-28 (.143)
  • 0 extra-base hits
  • 9 Ks (30 K%)
  • 2 walks

The Yankees’ bullpen isn’t particularly taxed, but all three of its high-leverage arms were put to use last night. And the team won’t have another off-day until September.

So if Gil can keep the walk count relatively low, working into the sixth is perfectly doable.

Key stat: After being eased in during his season debut, Gil has cashed this bet in back-to-back starts.

Quick pick

Anthony over 0.5 runs (+108): I don’t expect Gil to be perfect tonight, and Anthony is the type of hitter who should profile well against him.

The rookie outfielder has a sky-high walk rate of 14.6%, which would be among the highest in the league if he was a qualified hitter. For context, the average walk rate in MLB is 8.4%.

Anthony has a .423 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, with nearly as many walks (28) as strikeouts (34). So he clearly sees the ball well from that side.

And as a leadoff man, Anthony is typically in the best position to score among anyone in Boston’s lineup. He has 18 runs in his past 18 games and has cashed this bet in 26 of 52 starts.

Red Sox vs. Yankees prop picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 08/21/2025.