Jordan Horrobin

Brent Rooker has already homered off reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal a few times. Can he do it again on Monday night?

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is one of two MLB home run picks on Monday night, and his history with Skubal is a big part of that. For a true long shot play, look at Riley Adams‘ opportunity inside Yankee Stadium.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 25.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Adams to hit a home run (+600)

Blue Jays fans might remember Adams, who was drafted early by Toronto in 2017 and was later traded one-for-one in exchange for reliever Brad Hand.

Adams, now 29, is merely a platoon catcher that the Jays shouldn’t regret moving on from. But I’m liking his long shot HR potential on Monday night.

Here are a few reasons why:

• Adams is excelling right now. Over his past 29 games (26 starts), Adams has a .489 SLG. Keep in mind that in 31 games before that he only had a .430 OPS.

• New York’s Cam Schlittler has reverse splits. The right-handed Schlittler has been worse against right-hitting opponents, allowing a .483 SLG and four HRs in just 60 at-bats.

• Yankee Stadium is a superb HR park. Over the past three seasons, right-hitting players have hit 19% more homers at Yankee Stadium than on average elsewhere, per Baseball Savant.

Adams, like Schlittler, also has reverse splits. Neither one is great … but Adams’ OPS vs. righties (.654) is a notch better than his OPS vs. lefties (.612).

One other thing is that a notable breeze is expected to blow out at Yankee Stadium on Monday night (7.4 mph to 10.1 mph during game time, per Swish Analytics).

I’d never use weather conditions as a primary driver for this sort of wager, but it doesn’t hurt in this case.

Key stat: It’s a limited sample, but Adams has some encouraging batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and barrel rate (13.5%) are both well above the league average (89.4 mph, 8.5% barrel rate).

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Best HR predictions

Rooker to hit a home run (+475): Skubal is in good shape to defend his AL Cy Young status, which makes him a difficult pitcher to bet against in the home run prop market.

But Rooker has had Skubal’s number a few times, and in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, I like this price enough to take a swing.

Rooker is 8-for-17 (.471) off Skubal with three home runs. That’s just not a stat line you’ll see often against the Tigers’ ace.

Back in June, when these teams met in Detroit, Rooker took Skubal deep to left with a 110-mph blast that travelled 415 feet, per Baseball Savant.

Rooker is slugging .573 off left-handers this year, and he has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.1%) overall.

Even with the league’s best lefty on the mound, the A’s designated hitter is worth a look.

MLB home run picks made at 10:53 a.m. ET on 08/25/2025.

It’s the final week of August, and the Toronto Blue Jays are back home to begin a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins.

The pregame narrative: Toronto took two of three games off Minnesota back in June, back when both teams were a handful of games over .500. Things have shifted drastically since then, as the Jays now hold the cards in the AL East and the Twins are well out of a playoff spot.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Twins for Aug. 25, featuring prop bets on Byron Buxton and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Twins

Best bet: Buxton under 1.5 total bases (-130)

For as long as Buxton and Scherzer have been in the majors, you’d think they would’ve faced each other by now.

Not so, but Monday’s matchup between two resurgent vets should be a good one.

I’m giving the edge to Scherzer, who has done well to earn a spot in Toronto’s crowded rotation. The 18th-year righty has a 3.14 ERA and a .206 opponent BA in his past seven starts.

Buxton, an all-star in Year 11 with the Twins, is tough to fade. But for as good as he’s been this year, his numbers are notably worse vs. RHPs and on the road.

• Home: .908 OPS
• Road: .815 OPS

• Against LHPs: .976 OPS
• Against RHPs: .831 OPS

We’re also catching Buxton during a dip in productivity.

From July 22 onward, Buxton has a .167/.222/.273 slash line in 17 games. He’s 13-4 to the under on this prop in that span.

Buxton has twice as many strikeouts (22) as hits (11) in those 17 games, too. He’s far from locked in right now.

Key stat: Scherzer has held right-hitting players to a .238/.291/.396 slash line this season.

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Jays prop bet

Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+104): Guerrero has decent numbers vs. Ryan (3-for-8, one walk), but that’s not really what this is about.

These days, I’m inclined to at least glance at Guerrero’s bases prop any time the over sits in the plus-money range.

• Guerrero has a 207 wRC+ since the all-star break, which is the second-highest in MLB.

• Over his past 26 starts, Vladdy is 17-9 vs. this prop with an 1.128 OPS.

Ryan has some excellent stuff, but he’s susceptible to giving up hard contact in the air. His 11.0% barrel rate ranks in the 11th percentile, per Baseball Savant, while his 37.0% ground ball rate ranks in the 24th percentile.

Guerrero dealt with a hamstring injury recently but was back at the plate as a pinch-hitter on Sunday. He should be good to go Monday night.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 08/25/2025.

Two switch-hitters are in the spotlight for Saturday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Francisco Lindor is having a wonderful month, and I like him to keep that up in a really enticing matchup. Ian Happ also draws an enticing matchup, which will hopefully help him break free of a mini power outage.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 23.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Lindor to hit a home run (+480)

Lindor is a switch-hitter who has been markedly better from the left side this season:

• LHB (vs. righties): 403 plate appearances, 19 HRs, .853 OPS

• RHB (vs. lefties): 171 plate appearances, 6 HRs, .667 OPS

Tonight, the all-star shortstop will be on his preferred side against Braves right-hander Cal Quantrill, who coughed up two homers against the Mets back in March.

Lindor didn’t have either of those, but I do like his chances to take advantage of a pitcher who’s really struggling to limit loud contact.

Check out some of Quantrill’s notable metrics, as tracked by Baseball Savant (percentile rankings in parentheses):

• .290 xBA (7th)
• 11.6% barrel rate (7th)
• 5.52 ERA (8th)
• 44.5% hard-hit rate (20th)

Lindor is having a superb month, batting .372 with a .654 SLG in 19 games. His 53% hard-hit rate in August is well above MLB’s 2025 season average (40.9%).

Quantrill has allowed four homers over his past three starts. Hopefully, Lindor will add to that.

Key stat: Lindor has eight extra-base hits, including four HRs, in his past eight games.

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Best HR predictions

Happ to hit a home run (+410): Happ, like Lindor, is a switch-hitter who fares better from the left side.

That’s where 13 of his 16 home runs have come, after all. And his OPS as a left-hitting player (.739) is nearly 100 points north of his OPS from the right side (.641).

Unlike Lindor, Happ hasn’t been crushing the ball lately. But tonight’s matchup looks like a very promising one for him.

Victor Mederos gets the start for the Angels, and he’s had a rough go of things in a limited sample this year. In 13.0 innings over four outings, he has a 5.54 ERA and a .551 opponent SLG.

Roughly half the time, Mederos is grooving mid-90s sinkers to opposing hitters — and they collectively have a .609 SLG off that pitch type.

Happ is the Cubs’ best sinkerballer hitter when a righty is on the mound, which is a key reason why I’m backing him.

This season, Happ is 12-for-27 (.444) with four homers off sinkers from RHPs.

MLB home run picks made at 1:53 p.m. ET on 08/23/2025.

Andrew Abbott is having a sneakily stellar year, and he headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Abbott is flirting with an ERA title for the Cincinnati Reds, and he’s not shying away from healthy innings totals in most of his starts. In other matchups, I expect Dylan Crews to continue his modest resurgence and for Jeffrey Springs to cash in against the free-swinging Seattle Mariners.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Aug. 23.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Crews over 0.5 hits (-143)

Crews hasn’t come anywhere near living up to the hype that made him the No. 2 draft pick in 2023, but he’s still only 23 years old. And things have been better lately.

In his past 13 games, Crews is 12-for-41 (.293) with a .969 OPS. He’s 9-4 vs. this prop in that span.

Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies in what has been a brutal year for the front-of-rotation arm.

Nola — an LSU product just like Crews, albeit nearly a decade apart — has a 6.92 ERA and a .308 opponent BA in 10 starts.

Last week, Nola got shelled by this Nationals squad (2.1 IP, seven hits, six runs), and Crews was in on the fun. Crews hit a two-run double off Nola and scored in the next at-bat, chasing Nola from the game.

It’s confounding to see these struggles from Nola, whose career 3.80 ERA is more than three full runs below this year’s mark. His career 8.0 H/9 is more than three full hits below this year’s mark (11.4), too.

Some positive regression would make sense, but probably not as much as you’d think. According to Baseball Savant, Nola ranks in the 12th percentile in xERA (5.17) and the seventh percentile in xBA (.289).

In righty-on-righty matchups, Nola’s primary pitch is his sinker. Crews is 11-for-37 (.297) against sinkers from RHPs this year.

Key stat: Crews is 4-for-7 with a double and a triple vs. Nola.

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Best MLB picks

Abbott over 17.5 outs (-139): After deploying seven relievers last night, the Reds could really use some length from Abbott on Saturday.

It’s not a truly dire situation given that Cincy was off Thursday, but still. The Reds have a massive series against the Dodgers that begins Monday, and it’d be best not to tax the bullpen again before then.

Abbott has been an effective innings eater this year, and I think he’s worth the fairly steep price on this market.

• The left-hander has pitched into the sixth or deeper in seven straight outings. He’s 6-1 vs. this prop in that span, averaging 19.9 outs per game.

• Abbott’s 2.28 ERA is second-lowest in the NL among qualified pitchers — behind only Paul Skenes (2.16).

• He has thrown 95+ pitches in 12 of 22 starts. The Reds don’t mind giving the 26-year-old a long leash.

Springs over 5.5 Ks (+112): After highlighting a pair of juiced-up props, let’s finish with something in plus-money territory.

Tonight marks Springs’ fourth outing of the season against the Mariners, and the first three went quite well:

• 17.0 innings
• 10 hits
• 3 runs
• 20 Ks
• 2-1 vs. this prop

Springs doesn’t have overwhelming stuff by any means, but this is a Grade-A matchup.

Seattle has the second-highest K rate vs. left-handed pitchers (26.1%), as well as the second-highest overall K rate since the all-star break (26.2%).

The best putaway pitch in Springs’ arsenal is his changeup. Seattle has the fifth-highest K rate and the eighth-highest whiff rate against changeups from LHPs.

MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 08/23/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a series win over the Miami Marlins on Saturday afternoon in South Florida.

The pregame narrative: Toronto still has MLB’s best offence in the second half, and it should be on full display in today’s game. Daulton Varsho has a platoon advantage that I’m particularly keen on tapping into.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Marlins for Aug. 23, featuring Varsho and Jakob Marsee.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Marlins

Best bet: Over 8 runs (-120)

Thanks in large part to the mastery of Shane Bieber, last night’s series opener fell below this line in Toronto’s 5-2 win.

But based on today’s pitching matchup, among other factors, I expect a more offence-inclined result.

Toronto’s Jose Berrios is coming off his worst outing of the year against the Rangers: 4.1 innings, 10 hits, six earned runs.

In nine starts dating back to the beginning of July, Berrios has a 5.68 ERA, with 66 baserunners allowed in 44.1 IP. At this projected run total, overs are 7-1-1 in that span.

Miami’s Janson Junk really hasn’t been any better lately.

Junk has gone six consecutive starts allowing at least three earned runs, posting a 6.19 ERA in that span. Overs are 4-1-1 vs. an 8-run total in those games.

And keep in mind that Toronto is the No. 1 overs team in MLB this year. Overs are 70-53-6 (56.9%) in Jays games, per Team Rankings.

This month, this over is 12-5-4 in Miami’s games.

Toronto has a 137 wRC+ in the second half, which is the best in the league. The club should be able to drive plenty of offence, and Berrios has been shaky enough to give some runs back.

Key stat: This over is 10-1-2 in Berrios’ past 13 starts (since June 9).

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Jays prop bets

Marsee over 0.5 runs (+132): I expect some scoring today, and Marsee should contribute to that for the home squad.

The rookie outfielder broke into the big leagues at the start of August and has largely been deployed as a middle-of-the-order bat for the Marlins. But he started the past three games in the No. 2 spot, which is worth noting.

From the second spot in the lineup, Marsee should have an excellent chance to score — especially if he continues to rake the way he has.

Marsee has a .353/.430/.706 slash line through 21 games. And his .345 xBA, as measured by Baseball Savant, suggests to me that this isn’t a total fluke.

With a 12.7% walk rate so far — well above the league average of 8.4% — he’s also capable of reaching base the patient way.

Varsho over 1.5 total bases (+123): Varsho is slugging .696 against right-handed pitchers this year, with a remarkable 14 homers in 126 plate appearances.

At a price like this, I’m thrilled to buy in.

Left-hitting batters are 46-for-157 (.293) with a .459 SLG vs. Junk this season. He also ranks in the 17th percentile or worse in strikeout rate, whiff rate, xBA and hard-hit rate.

Varsho strikes out a ton, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern against Junk.

In his past 15 games, Varsho has six homers and a .326/.415/.783 slash line.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 08/23/2025.