Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.
It’s Labour Day, and the Toronto Blue Jays are in action for a rare Monday matinee against the Cincinnati Reds.
The pregame narrative: Hunter Greene’s high-octane stuff will be on display at Great American Ball Park this afternoon for a Reds team that is just 2-8 in its past 10. Toronto turns to Chris Bassitt at the outset of a six-game road trip.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 1, featuring Greene and Bo Bichette.
It’s been tough to take the over on strikeouts props for pitchers facing the Jays this year, but this line feels like an overcorrection.
Yes, Toronto has MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (17.5%) and has only averaged 6.6 total Ks per game since the all-star break. Those are pretty compelling reasons to fade whoever’s on the mound against them.
Greene (5-4, 2.81 ERA) isn’t just anybody, though.
The 25-year-old fireballer was my preseason pick to win NL Cy Young, and if not for a groin injury that took a huge bite out of his season, he could be right in the mix.
Greene sits 99 mph with his fastball, and he offsets that with a wipeout slider.
His slider has a 47.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the 12th-highest rate among any MLB pitch in a sample with more than 500 qualifiers.
For as strikeout-conscious as the Blue Jays have been, Greene’s slider should tap into a weakness.
Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, Toronto has the 10th-lowest batting average (.227) and the 12th-highest whiff rate (34.4%) in the majors.
Greene has an 11.0 K/9 this season, which is better than guys like Paul Skenes, Hunter Brown and Spencer Strider. He clears this line routinely, and I think he can overcome this matchup.
Key stat: Greene is averaging 6.7 Ks per start and is 10-4 vs. this strikeout line.
Jays prop picks
Over 8 runs (-106): Though I expect some strikeouts from Greene, that doesn’t mean I think Toronto will be totally silent on offence.
The Jays still have the league’s best second-half offence, averaging 5.7 runs per game with a 133 wRC+ and an .837 OPS.
For context, the league-average OPS this year is .720.
Toronto has been the most overs-friendly team this season, per Team Rankings, with a 77-54-6 record (58.8%). The lineup has a ton to do with that, but it’s not the only reason I expect ample scoring today.
Bassitt has been markedly worse on the road this season, with a 6.10 ERA in 13 games (compared to a 2.76 ERA in 15 home games).
Also, Toronto’s bullpen has a 5.51 ERA since the all-star break, which is second-worst in MLB.
Bichette over 1.5 total bases (+110): Bichette was absolutely dialled in August, and I’m hoping he carries that forward into the final month.
In August, Bichette posted a .367/.425/.523 slash line in 27 games.
He averaged 2.1 bases per game and went 15-12 vs. this line.
Greene’s stuff is electric, but he can get burned, too. He allows a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranks in the 24th percentile, which is a tough partner for his fifth-percentile ground ball rate (30.6%).
Bichette has barrelled up some pitches from Greene in the past, going 3-for-6 with a triple and two HRs.
Blue Jays best bets made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/01/2025.
It’s Labour Day, and the Toronto Blue Jays are in action for a rare Monday matinee against the Cincinnati Reds.
The pregame narrative: Hunter Greene‘s high-octane stuff will be on display at Great American Ball Park this afternoon for a Reds team that is just 2-8 in its past 10. Toronto turns to Chris Bassitt at the outset of a six-game road trip.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 1, featuring Greene and Bo Bichette.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds
Best bet:Greene over 5.5 Ks (-125)
It’s been tough to take the over on strikeouts props for pitchers facing the Jays this year, but this line feels like an overcorrection.
Yes, Toronto has MLB’s lowest strikeout rate (17.5%) and has only averaged 6.6 total Ks per game since the all-star break. Those are pretty compelling reasons to fade whoever’s on the mound against them.
Greene (5-4, 2.81 ERA) isn’t just anybody, though.
The 25-year-old fireballer was my preseason pick to win NL Cy Young, and if not for a groin injury that took a huge bite out of his season, he could be right in the mix.
Greene sits 99 mph with his fastball, and he offsets that with a wipeout slider.
His slider has a 47.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the 12th-highest rate among any MLB pitch in a sample with more than 500 qualifiers.
For as strikeout-conscious as the Blue Jays have been, Greene’s slider should tap into a weakness.
Against sliders from right-handed pitchers, Toronto has the 10th-lowest batting average (.227) and the 12th-highest whiff rate (34.4%) in the majors.
Greene has an 11.0 K/9 this season, which is better than guys like Paul Skenes, Hunter Brown and Spencer Strider. He clears this line routinely, and I think he can overcome this matchup.
Key stat: Greene is averaging 6.7 Ks per start and is 10-4 vs. this strikeout line.
Over 8.5 runs (-103): Though I expect some strikeouts from Greene, that doesn’t mean I think Toronto will be totally silent on offence.
The Jays still have the league’s best second-half offence, averaging 5.7 runs per game with a 133 wRC+ and an .837 OPS.
For context, the league-average OPS this year is .720.
Toronto has been the most overs-friendly team this season, per Team Rankings, with a 77-54-6 record (58.8%). The lineup has a ton to do with that, but it’s not the only reason I expect ample scoring today.
Bassitt has been markedly worse on the road this season, with a 6.10 ERA in 13 games (compared to a 2.76 ERA in 15 home games).
Also, Toronto’s bullpen has a 5.51 ERA since the all-star break, which is second-worst in MLB.
Bichette over 1.5 total bases (+125): Bichette was absolutely dialled in August, and I’m hoping he carries that forward into the final month.
In August, Bichette posted a .367/.425/.523 slash line in 27 games.
He averaged 2.1 bases per game and went 15-12 vs. this line.
Greene’s stuff is electric, but he can get burned, too. He allows a 90.3 mph average exit velocity, which ranks in the 24th percentile, which is a tough partner for his fifth-percentile ground ball rate (30.6%).
Bichette has barrelled up some pitches from Greene in the past, going 3-for-6 with a triple and two HRs.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:25 a.m. ET on 09/01/2025.
The summer is winding down, which means it’s time for the NFL to ramp back up.
If you’ve been in hibernation mode on the football front, fear not. This is a one-stop shop to get you caught up before the tidal wave of NFL action arrives.
Check out our NFL preview and betting primer for the 2025 season, which highlights key offseason moves, notable injuries, the top rookies, last year’s betting trends and more.
NFL preview: Notable offseason moves
From a sheer brand-name perspective, the team with the splashiest offseason was the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Wide receiver George Pickens is out after three seasons of under-delivering on ample promise. In comes Aaron Rodgers for presumably one last ride, along with DK Metcalf to fill Pickens’ WR1 role.
As a team collectively, the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings might’ve had the most successful summers. Philly retained its most notable free agent in linebacker Zack Baun, while rewarding Saquon Barkley and two offensive linemen with extensions.
The Vikings, meanwhile, brought in two d-line studs (Javon Hargrave, Jonathan Allen), gave new contracts to three key pieces in the secondary and added running back Jordan Mason. They’ve got high hopes as the J.J. McCarthy era begins in earnest.
A late addition to the party: The Green Bay Packers, who traded for star defensive end Micah Parsons a week before the season kicks off and then made him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
Parsons signed a four-year, $188 million contract extension with Green Bay. Of that, $136 million is fully guaranteed.
The 26-year-old is a two-time All-Pro and has been selected to the Pro Bowl all four seasons of his career.
All in all, here were the biggest names that changed teams:
Fresh storylines emerge every season, but there are already plenty for bettors to sink their teeth into in Weeks 1-3. Here’s a handful of key games to look out for:
Week 1: Ravens vs. Bills (Sunday, Sept. 7 at 8:20 p.m. ET)
The first Sunday Night Football showdown of the season is overloaded with star power.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, last year’s top two MVP contenders (and two top contenders again this year), square off in a rematch of a 2024 divisional round matchup.
The Ravens’ failed two-point conversion in the closing seconds allowed Allen’s Bills to eke out a 27-25 win in that one.
Week 1: Steelers vs. Jets (Sunday, Sept. 7 at 1 p.m. ET)
What does Aaron Rodgers have left? After a divorce from the Jets (and a quiet offseason marriage in his personal life), it’s time to find out.
The 41-year-old could be in the swan song of his Hall of Fame career, and it begins with Pittsburgh as a road favourite against the team that dumped him.
It’s a bit of a wife swap situation, actually, given that ex-Steelers quarterback Justin Fields is now under centre for the Jets. Revenge game scenarios abound.
Week 2: Eagles vs. Chiefs (Sunday, Sept. 14 at 4:25 p.m. ET)
A Super Bowl rematch kind of speaks for itself, doesn’t it?
The Chiefs were one win shy of an unprecedented three-peat, but the Eagles won Super Bowl LIX in blowout fashion to ensure that wouldn’t happen.
Most of the stars are still around, including Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley, and this could be a preview for another championship battle down the road.
Week 3: Lions vs. Ravens (Monday, Sept. 22 at 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Lions had a franchise-best 15 wins last season but flopped in their first playoff game. Despite losing both coordinators, Detroit is still a team with crystallized championship aspirations.
So, too, are the Ravens, who know something about stellar regular seasons followed by playoff disappointments.
Detroit and Baltimore ranked first and third, respectively, in scoring offence last year.
Preseason injuries
Injuries are an unfortunate part of the NFL.
As of Aug. 26, here are some key names to keep an eye on entering the season:
RB Joe Mixon (foot/ankle), Texans: Mixon will begin the season on the reserve/non-football injury list, which means he’ll miss at least the first four weeks of the season. Nick Chubb will likely take the bulk of Houston’s backfield touches in his absence, with Dameon Pierce and rookie Woody Marks in the mix as well.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (knee), 49ers: San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters on Aug. 25 that Week 6 is a possible target for Aiyuk to return. With Deebo Samuel now out of the picture in SF, Aiyuk — a 1,300-yard receiver in 2023 — is a crucial weapon in the 49ers’ passing game.
WR Chris Godwin (ankle), Buccaneers: Godwin is unlikely to play until October, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, but Tampa Bay still plans to carry him on the 53-man roster entering Week 1. As a member of the active roster, Godwin will be eligible to practice in September even if he’s unable to suit up for games.
RB Tyjae Spears (ankle), Titans: Tennessee placed Spears on injured reserve, which will keep him sidelined until at least Week 5. Spears, who suffered a high ankle sprain in a preseason game, was expected to compete for a timeshare role with teammate Tony Pollard.
To keep up with the latest injury designations and estimated return dates, check out our NFL injury report, powered by RotoWire.
NFL preview: Top rookies for 2025
RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders: It’s difficult for a collegiate player who’s not in a Power Four conference to win the Heisman Trophy, but Jeanty gave it his best go.
After an FBS-best 2,601 yards in 14 games, the Boise State product looks to give Las Vegas another elite weapon to pair with Brock Bowers.
Photo by Jeff Lewis/AP.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers: Year 1 for Xavier Legette didn’t blow anybody away, so the Panthers went back into the first round of the NFL draft to try again for a star wideout.
Enter the 6-foot-5 McMillan, who figures to create tons of size mismatches on Sundays. In his junior year with Arizona, McMillan paced the Big 12 in receiving yards (1,319 in 12 games).
WR Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers: Egbuka is Ohio State’s all-time leading receiver, and that’s saying something when you consider all the NFL-calibre players who came through Columbus.
Tampa Bay was a bit of a surprise landing spot, but with second-year wideout Jalen McMillan dealing with a neck injury — and Godwin likely out until October — Egbuka can make an instant splash.
QB Cam Ward, Titans: The 2025 draft class wasn’t considered QB-rich, but Ward was clearly the cream of the crop.
The Heisman finalist chucked 39 passing TDs in 13 games for Miami (FL), and now there’s hope that he can turn Tennessee in the right direction. For a team with +415 odds to make the playoffs, though, it likely won’t all come together right away.
Every favourite is the incumbent division winner except the 49ers, who went 6-11 to finish last in the NFC West in 2024. According to Warren Sharp, the 49ers have the NFL’s easiest strength of schedule this year.
The Chiefs have won the AFC West nine years in a row, which is two shy of the Patriots’ NFL record for consecutive division titles (11, 2009-19).
Five teams finished with 13+ wins last season, but only the Bills (13-4 in ’24) are expected to run that back. Buffalo has the fifth-easiest schedule, per Warren Sharp.
The Giants went 3-14 last year to finish in a three-way tie for the NFL’s worst record. This season, 10 of New York’s 17 games come against teams that reached the 2024 playoffs.
MVP favourites: Lamar Jackson (+550) | Joe Burrow (+600) | Josh Allen (+600) | Patrick Mahomes (+700) | Jayden Daniels (+900)
Jackson and Mahomes are both multi-time MVP winners. Allen, meanwhile, is the reigning MVP after a tight race last season. Buffalo’s QB had 27 first-place votes to Jackson’s 22.
There’s a significant odds drop-off after the top five, as Jalen Hurts is next on the board at 20-to-1.
Unsurprisingly, the reigning champion Eagles are alone atop the Super Bowl odds leaderboard. Their dominant 2024 season included a +68 point differential across four playoff games. Philly lost some players from its No. 1 total defence, including sack leader Josh Sweat, but the team as a whole retained the vast majority of its stars. A title repeat is well within reach.
KC, the three-time reigning AFC champion, has an air of inevitability to it. In Mahomes’ seven seasons as a starter, the team has three Super Bowls and seven conference championship appearances.
Right in the mix are the Bills and Ravens, whose MVP-calibre quarterbacks will always give them a chance. Baltimore also has the ageless wonder Derrick Henry, who rushed for 1,921 and 16 TDs last season.
Last among the top five is the Lions, a team that last won a championship in the pre-Super Bowl era. Injuries were a devastating factor for Detroit last year, and with every offensive weapon back in the fold, a healthier squad could go the distance.
With less than two months away from the start of the 2025 NFL season, it’s never too early to check in on the Week 1 schedule and odds.
The latest: The defending-champion Philadelphia Eagles begin the season at home on Thursday, Sept. 4, against their division rival Dallas Cowboys. The crown jewel of Week 1 is on Sunday Night Football, though, as the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year’s divisional round.
Check out the latest NFL Week 1 schedule and betting lines below.
NFL Week 1 schedule notes
Dallas got flattened by Philadelphia in both meetings last year, losing by a combined score of 75-13. This matchup will be the first meaningful appearance for George Pickens and Javonte Williams as Cowboys, while the Eagles have nearly all the star power from last year’s Super Bowl team (including Saquon Barkley, of course).
After 29 consecutive years without a division title, the Lions are favoured to win their third in a row this season. The main challengers in that pursuit should be the Packers, who hope rookie wideout Matthew Golden can help balance out an offence that was run-heavy for most of last year. Detroit lost both of its coordinators to head coaching positions in the offseason.
Speaking of a former Lions coordinator, Ben Johnson will make his head coaching debut for Chicago on Monday Night Football against Minnesota. It’ll also be the NFL debut for Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season due to a knee injury.
The last time the Ravens stepped foot in Western New York, Mark Andrews let a game-tying 2-point conversion slip through his fingertips in the closing minutes of a playoff game. Since 2022, Buffalo is an NFL-best 25-4 at home.
Year 2 of the Jayden Daniels show begins at home against the New York Giants, who boast a loaded pass rusher group that added Abdul Carter at the top of the 2025 draft. Overs went 13-7 in Commanders games last year, while unders were 11-6 in Giants games.
Are you ready for the first proper college football Saturday of the year? We’ve got Week 1 parlay picks to cover some of the action.
The pregame narrative: The marquee matchup of this +423 ticket features a top-10 matchup between Clemson and LSU. Out west, the Cal Golden Bears and Oregon State Beavers have the makings of a high-scoring showdown.
Check out my +423 college football parlay predictions, featuring a pick on the Albany Great Danes vs. Iowa Hawkeyes game.
College football predictions: Week 1 parlay
Parlay: Iowa -38 | Clemson ML | Cal/Oregon State over 48.5 points (+423)
Iowa -38 (-110): On Aug. 6, a video of Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski completing a fairly simple 15-yard out route garnered more than 800,000 views on Twitter.
That’s how starved the Iowa fanbase is for competent quarterback play.
Gronowski transferred in from South Dakota State (FCS), where he led the Jackrabbits to the national semifinal last year. He threw for over 10,000 yards in his career at SDSU, and there’s hope he can be the Hawkeyes’ first 3,000-yard passer since 2011.
Iowa’s defence has finished in the top 20 in adjusted EPA per play in every season since 2018, according to Game On Paper. Mix some decent quarterback play in there, and you’re laughing.
Gronowski’s Jackrabbits beat Albany (FCS) two years ago, 59-0. He had three passing TDs and 315 yards of total offence.
Clemson moneyline (-190): I already backed Clemson -3.5 (-117) in a different picks piece, and this feels like the right venue to double down.
The No. 4-ranked Tigers are 29-4 at home in the past five seasons under Dabo Swinney’s tutelage. Death Valley is not where any opponent wants to be on a Saturday night.
That’s true for the No. 9 LSU Tigers, who share the same team and stadium nickname, funnily enough. But Clemson’s home-field advantage should matter this weekend.
LSU made some splashes in the transfer portal, but Clemson’s continuity should be a greater strength — especially early in the season. The host Tigers brought back 16 starters from last year’s College Football Playoff squad.
With head coach Brian Kelly at the helm, LSU is 0-3 in season openers. The Tigers were favoured in all three of those games.
Cal/Oregon State over 48.5 points (-127): I’m excited about the quarterback play in this matchup, and I think both sides can put up a bunch of points.
Oregon State will turn to transfer Maalik Murphy, who threw for 26 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards in 12 games last year. He was rated as a four-star transfer according to 247 Sports.
On the Cal side, freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele beat out former Ohio State quarterback Devin Brown for the starting job.
Sagapolutele, 247 Sports’ No. 7 quarterback in the 2025 freshman class, originally committed to Oregon. The four-star southpaw is Cal’s highest-rated QB recruit since Jared Goff — and the first true freshman QB to start the Golden Bears’ season opener since Goff.
Oregon State had a disastrous defence last year, ranking 115th of 134 schools in defensive EPA per play. Hopefully, the Beavers give Sagapolutele a soft landing in his debut.
Overs are 5-0 in the past five years when these teams met up.
College football predictions made at 12:10 p.m. on 08/26/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays can secure a series win — and a season series win — in Tuesday night’s home matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: After a 10-4 victory last night, Toronto is now 3-1 vs. Minnesota on the season. The Twins have lost 12 of their past 16 games to fall well out of wild-card contention, while Toronto is holding tight to a five-game lead in the AL East.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Twins for Aug. 26, featuring a prop bet on Alejandro Kirk.
Last night’s win for Toronto was comfortable from wire to wire, as the team scored four in the first inning and retained a multi-run lead the rest of the way.
I think the Jays should be able to win by margin again tonight. They’re simply the better team, and starter Chris Bassitt has done his best work inside Rogers Centre.
Since the all-star break, Toronto has an MLB-best .288/.355/.487 slash line and a 134 wRC+. In the same span, Minnesota is collectively batting .227 with the 23rd-ranked wRC+ (93).
In the Twins’ past 16 games, Minnesota is just 5-11 vs. a +1.5 run line. The team has a -39 run differential in that span.
Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.73 ERA and a .690 opponent OPS in 14 home starts this year. In contrast, he is 3-7 with a 6.10 ERA and an .839 opponent OPS in 13 road outings.
These teams have been moving in opposite directions for a while. The current gap between them is enough to make this plus-money run line price enticing.
Bailey Ober, who starts for the Twins tonight, allowed five earned runs to the Jays in June as part of a 6-4 victory for Toronto.
Oh, and the Jays have the third-best run line record in MLB (76-56), per Team Rankings. The Twins’ run line record is 61-70.
Key stat: Toronto is 10-4 vs. a -1.5 run line in Bassitt’s 14 home starts this year.
Jays prop bet
Kirk over 1.5 bases (+115): Kirk had a great night in the series opener, going 1-for-2 with a home run and a pair of walks.
In his past 16 starts, the catcher is now 8-8 vs. this prop with a .500 SLG.
Ober has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (5.1%, 93rd percentile according to Baseball Savant), so Kirk will likely have to put the ball in play to reach base. That’s a good thing for this prop.
Kirk has excellent bat-to-ball skills, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile xBA (.292) and his 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (51.4%). And he’s batting .302 vs. right-handed pitchers this year.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 08/26/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays can secure a series win — and a season series win — in Tuesday night’s home matchup against the Minnesota Twins.
The pregame narrative: After a 10-4 victory last night, Toronto is now 3-1 vs. Minnesota on the season. The Twins have lost 12 of their past 16 games to fall well out of wild-card contention, while Toronto is holding tight to a five-game lead in the AL East.
Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Twins for Aug. 26, featuring a prop bet on Alejandro Kirk.
Blue Jays best bets vs. Twins
Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
Last night’s win for Toronto was comfortable from wire to wire, as the team scored four in the first inning and retained a multi-run lead the rest of the way.
I think the Jays should be able to win by margin again tonight. They’re simply the better team, and starter Chris Bassitt has done his best work inside Rogers Centre.
Since the all-star break, Toronto has an MLB-best .288/.355/.487 slash line and a 134 wRC+. In the same span, Minnesota is collectively batting .227 with the 23rd-ranked wRC+ (93).
In the Twins’ past 16 games, Minnesota is just 5-11 vs. a +1.5 run line. The team has a -39 run differential in that span.
Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.73 ERA and a .690 opponent OPS in 14 home starts this year. In contrast, he is 3-7 with a 6.10 ERA and an .839 opponent OPS in 13 road outings.
These teams have been moving in opposite directions for a while. The current gap between them is enough to make this plus-money run line price enticing.
Bailey Ober, who starts for the Twins tonight, allowed five earned runs to the Jays in June as part of a 6-4 victory for Toronto.
Oh, and the Jays have the third-best run line record in MLB (76-56), per Team Rankings. The Twins’ run line record is 61-70.
Key stat: Toronto is 10-4 vs. a -1.5 run line in Bassitt’s 14 home starts this year.
Kirk over 1.5 bases (+120): Kirk had a great night in the series opener, going 1-for-2 with a home run and a pair of walks.
In his past 16 starts, the catcher is now 8-8 vs. this prop with a .500 SLG.
Ober has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (5.1%, 93rd percentile according to Baseball Savant), so Kirk will likely have to put the ball in play to reach base. That’s a good thing for this prop.
Kirk has excellent bat-to-ball skills, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile xBA (.292) and his 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (51.4%). And he’s batting .302 vs. right-handed pitchers this year.
Blue Jays best bets made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 08/26/2025.
Last Saturday’s Week 0 action was an appetizer, but the main course of the college football season arrives with Week 1.
The pregame narrative: From Thursday through Monday, 91 games are on tap. That includes a pair of top-10 ranked matchups, one of which (No. 9 LSU vs. No. 4 Clemson) is featured in this week’s predictions.
Check out the best college football Week 1 picks, featuring a prediction on No. 8 Alabama vs. Florida State.
College football picks Week 1
Best bet: Florida State +14 (-134)
Florida State left a really bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths last year. A 2-10 record for a team with College Football Playoff hopes will do that to you.
After hitting the reset button in a major way, I don’t think the Seminoles will get laughed out of their own building in the season opener.
Florida State overhauled its roster with a ton of transfers, netting the sixth-best transfer portal ranking in the country, per 247 Sports.
For as bad as things were in Tallahassee last year — and they were bad — the Seminoles only last by more than two scores in two of six home games.
Thomas Castellanos, whose Boston College Eagles were one of several teams to upset Florida State last year, is now FSU’s starting quarterback. He stirred the pot in June by suggested Alabama wouldn’t be able to stop him.
NEW: Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos tells @PeteNakos_ he's dreamed of playing against Alabama🍢
I don’t buy that, but I do think Castellanos’ experience and swagger can help the Seminoles keep this game respectable. Along with the fact that Alabama is breaking in a new starting quarterback (Ty Simpson) and will be without starting tailback Jam Miller.
Simpson has been at Bama since 2022 and has a five-star pedigree. But he’s only attempted 50 collegiate passes, and his inability to climb the depth chart ladder feels telling.
The Crimson Tide should walk out of this one with a win. But can they do it by a convincing number against a remade Florida State team? I don’t think so.
Key stat: Alabama went 2-4 ATS in road or neutral venues last year, losing four of those games outright as favourites.
Clemson -3.5 (-110): Clemson and LSU both play in a venue nicknamed Death Valley, and they’re both the Tigers … and they both have quarterbacks hoping to hear their name called in Round 1 of next year’s NFL draft.
Despite all similarities, Clemson should have the edge as the home squad in the season opener.
Over the past five seasons, Clemson is 29-4 at home.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik, a third-year starter, is PFF’s top-rated QB in NCAA Division I this season.
Clemson brought back 16 starters from last year’s CFP squad, including three defensive players who are currently being mocked as top-15 draft picks by ESPN.
LSU has its own stud QB in Garrett Nussmeier (rated No. 5 at PFF), but the visiting Tigers can’t compete with Clemson’s returning talent.
Under head coach Brian Kelly, LSU is 0-3 in season openers — losing all three games outright as favourites.
Thursday night prediction: Ohio vs. Rutgers
Ohio +15.5 (-110): This is a bit of a homer pick, given that the author of this article happens to be an Ohio University graduate. Nonetheless, there’s some legitimate rationale behind the play, too.
The Ohio Bobcats finally climbed the Mid-American Conference mountaintop last year, claiming their first conference championship since 1968.
Stylistically, their run-heavy approach on offence should play against Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights ranked 130th among 134 FBS schools last year in defensive EPA per rush, according to Game on Paper. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry and 26 rushing TDs over 13 games.
Ohio brought back quarterback Parker Navarro, a 1,000-yard rusher who had a MAC-high 18 TDs on the ground last year. At tailback, the Bobcats reunited with Sieh Bangura, who had 1,889 yards in 2022-23 before spending last season with Minnesota.
Rutgers did cover this spread once last season against a fellow FBS school, Akron. But Ohio also trounced Akron last year, 30-10, and should grind out enough yards on offence to stay relatively close.
College football picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 08/25/2024.
Last Saturday’s Week 0 action was an appetizer, but the main course of the college football season arrives with Week 1.
The pregame narrative: From Thursday through Monday, 91 games are on tap. That includes a pair of top-10 ranked matchups, one of which (No. 9 LSU vs. No. 4 Clemson) is featured in this week’s predictions.
Check out the best college football Week 1 picks, featuring a prediction on No. 8 Alabama vs. Florida State.
College football picks Week 1
Best bet: Florida State +14 (-108)
Florida State left a really bad taste in a lot of people’s mouths last year. A 2-10 record for a team with College Football Playoff hopes will do that to you.
After hitting the reset button in a major way, I don’t think the Seminoles will get laughed out of their own building in the season opener.
Florida State overhauled its roster with a ton of transfers, netting the sixth-best transfer portal ranking in the country, per 247 Sports.
For as bad as things were in Tallahassee last year — and they were bad — the Seminoles only last by more than two scores in two of six home games.
Thomas Castellanos, whose Boston College Eagles were one of several teams to upset Florida State last year, is now FSU’s starting quarterback. He stirred the pot in June by suggested Alabama wouldn’t be able to stop him.
NEW: Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos tells @PeteNakos_ he's dreamed of playing against Alabama🍢
I don’t buy that, but I do think Castellanos’ experience and swagger can help the Seminoles keep this game respectable. Along with the fact that Alabama is breaking in a new starting quarterback (Ty Simpson) and will be without starting tailback Jam Miller.
Simpson has been at Bama since 2022 and has a five-star pedigree. But he’s only attempted 50 collegiate passes, and his inability to climb the depth chart ladder feels telling.
The Crimson Tide should walk out of this one with a win. But can they do it by a convincing number against a remade Florida State team? I don’t think so.
Key stat: Alabama went 2-4 ATS in road or neutral venues last year, losing four of those games outright as favourites.
Clemson -3.5 (-117): Clemson and LSU both play in a venue nicknamed Death Valley, and they’re both the Tigers … and they both have quarterbacks hoping to hear their name called in Round 1 of next year’s NFL draft.
Despite all similarities, Clemson should have the edge as the home squad in the season opener.
Over the past five seasons, Clemson is 29-4 at home.
Quarterback Cade Klubnik, a third-year starter, is PFF’s top-rated QB in NCAA Division I this season.
Clemson brought back 16 starters from last year’s CFP squad, including three defensive players who are currently being mocked as top-15 draft picks by ESPN.
LSU has its own stud QB in Garrett Nussmeier (rated No. 5 at PFF), but the visiting Tigers can’t compete with Clemson’s returning talent.
Under head coach Brian Kelly, LSU is 0-3 in season openers — losing all three games outright as favourites.
South Dakota +15.5 (-109): The Iowa State Cyclones opener their season in Dublin, Ireland just last week, making this a prime candidate for a hangover game.
There’s a joke to be made about overindulging on Guinness, but the hangover I’m referencing is on the field. Iowa State claimed a massive Big 12 victory last Saturday, clawing its way to a three-point win over Kansas State.
Having a game under their belt may help the Cyclones, but the fatigue of across-the-pond travel is a detriment. And although the South Dakota Coyotes play one level below (in FCS), I can see them keeping up in Ames.
The Coyotes return a 1,200-yard tailback (Charles Pierre Jr.) and a senior quarterback who averaged 9.5 yards per attempt (Aidan Bouman).
Last year, South Dakota covered this number in a 27-13 loss at Wisconsin en route to an 11-3 season.
Thursday night prediction: Ohio vs. Rutgers
Ohio +14.5 (-110): This is a bit of a homer pick, given that the author of this article happens to be an Ohio University graduate. Nonetheless, there’s some legitimate rationale behind the play, too.
The Ohio Bobcats finally climbed the Mid-American Conference mountaintop last year, claiming their first conference championship since 1968.
Stylistically, their run-heavy approach on offence should play against Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights ranked 130th among 134 FBS schools last year in defensive EPA per rush, according to Game on Paper. They allowed 5.2 yards per carry and 26 rushing TDs over 13 games.
Ohio brought back quarterback Parker Navarro, a 1,000-yard rusher who had a MAC-high 18 TDs on the ground last year. At tailback, the Bobcats reunited with Sieh Bangura, who had 1,889 yards in 2022-23 before spending last season with Minnesota.
Rutgers did cover this spread once last season against a fellow FBS school, Akron. But Ohio also trounced Akron last year, 30-10, and should grind out enough yards on offence to stay relatively close.
College football picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 08/25/2024.
Brent Rooker has already homered off reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal a few times. Can he do it again on Monday night?
Today’s MLB HR narrative: Rooker is one of two MLB home run picks on Monday night, and his history with Skubal is a big part of that. For a true long shot play, look at Riley Adams’ opportunity inside Yankee Stadium.
Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Aug. 25.
Blue Jays fans might remember Adams, who was drafted early by Toronto in 2017 and was later traded one-for-one in exchange for reliever Brad Hand.
Adams, now 29, is merely a platoon catcher that the Jays shouldn’t regret moving on from. But I’m liking his long shot HR potential on Monday night.
Here are a few reasons why:
Adams is excelling right now. Over his past 29 games (26 starts), Adams has a .489 SLG. Keep in mind that in 31 games before that he only had a .430 OPS.
New York’s Cam Schlittler has reverse splits. The right-handed Schlittler has been worse against right-hitting opponents, allowing a .483 SLG and four HRs in just 60 at-bats.
Yankee Stadium is a superb HR park. Over the past three seasons, right-hitting players have hit 19% more homers at Yankee Stadium than on average elsewhere, per Baseball Savant.
Adams, like Schlittler, also has reverse splits. Neither one is great … but Adams’ OPS vs. righties (.654) is a notch better than his OPS vs. lefties (.612).
One other thing is that a notable breeze is expected to blow out at Yankee Stadium on Monday night (7.4 mph to 10.1 mph during game time, per Swish Analytics).
I’d never use weather conditions as a primary driver for this sort of wager, but it doesn’t hurt in this case.
Key stat: It’s a limited sample, but Adams has some encouraging batted ball metrics. His average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and barrel rate (13.5%) are both well above the league average (89.4 mph, 8.5% barrel rate).
Best HR predictions
Rooker to hit a home run (+375): Skubal is in good shape to defend his AL Cy Young status, which makes him a difficult pitcher to bet against in the home run prop market.
But Rooker has had Skubal’s number a few times, and in the hitter-friendly confines of Sutter Health Park, I like this price enough to take a swing.
Rooker is 8-for-17 (.471) off Skubal with three home runs. That’s just not a stat line you’ll see often against the Tigers’ ace.
Back in June, when these teams met in Detroit, Rooker took Skubal deep to left with a 110-mph blast that travelled 415 feet, per Baseball Savant.
Rooker is slugging .573 off left-handers this year, and he has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.1%) overall.
Even with the league’s best lefty on the mound, the A’s designated hitter is worth a look.
MLB home run picks made at 11:23 a.m. ET on 08/25/2025.
