Jordan Horrobin

Rafael Devers has a chance to hit a home run in a third straight game on Tuesday night, and I’m backing him in my MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Devers hit a titanic, 411-foot blast into Denver’s mountain air last night, clocking a 114.5-mph exit velocity in the process. He’s now one homer shy of a fourth 30-HR season in his career.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 2, featuring Ozzie Albies.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Devers to hit a home run (+350)

Devers isn’t at his best in lefty-on-lefty matchups, but this is still a playable price based on other factors.

• The opposing starter gets shelled routinely. Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (3-13, 5.28 ERA) has a 2.36 HR/9 since the second half, which is the second-worst among 67 qualifiers. He also ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xBA, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

• Devers is rolling. In 23 games since Aug. 8, Devers has nine HRs and a .667 SLG. He has also homered in back-to-back games entering Tuesday.

• Coors Field is a haven for offence. Colorado’s home park allows 25% more runs than average, which is the greatest discrepancy in MLB.

The platoon disadvantage for Devers is suboptimal, but he is 1-for-3 with a home run already against Freeland. So at least we know it can be done.

Freeland has coughed up multiple homers in back-to-back starts, along with 10 total HRs in his past seven outings.

Opposing hitters are slugging .531 against Freeland in 11 games at Coors Field this season.

Key stat: Devers has a 15.8% barrel rate (94th percentile) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity (98th percentile).

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Best HR predictions

Albies to hit a home run (+480): Albies is a second baseman with a .354 SLG on the season. You’re not going to find a player like that in my home run prop crosshairs very often.

But Albies is swinging a hot bat lately, posting a .313/.345/.530 slash line over his past 20 games. He also has three HRs in the past week.

• Albies is a switch-hitter who fares better from the right side (career .533 SLG), which is where he’ll be tonight against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga.

• Imanaga’s 3.08 ERA over 20 starts might seem intimidating, but he’s been hurt by the long ball many times before. In 11 starts since July, Imanaga has allowed 14 homers.

• To put it another way, Imanaga’s 1.87 HR/9 since July is the fifth-highest among 70 qualified pitchers.

MLB home run picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 09/02/2025.

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After a dramatic conclusion to yesterday’s series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays and Cincinnati Reds are back at it on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto grabbed a lead in the ninth on Monday and coughed it up immediately in a walk-off loss. The Jays have now lost four of their past six games, and the bullpen has played a significant role in that slide.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Reds for Sept. 2, featuring Jose Berrios and Davis Schneider.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Reds

Best bet: Berrios over 16.5 outs (-110)

These are dark times for the Toronto bullpen. The longer John Schneider can delay turning to that group right now, the better.

Since the all-star break, the Jays’ relief corps is one of seven units with a negative fWAR value. Here’s where they rank in the second half on a league-wide scale:

• 30th in left-on-base rate (64.4%)
• 29th in ERA (5.61)
• 28th in walk rate (11.1%)
• 27th in opponent BA (.256)

Toronto’s bullpen has worked the second-fewest innings of any MLB relief group since the break, but the unit could use a breather right now.

Five of the eight relievers (excluding Eric Lauer, who was just bumped into a long-relief role) have worked twice in the past three days.

All of this is to say, some length from Berrios tonight would be warmly welcomed. And this line isn’t asking a ton from him.

Berrios is averaging 17.0 outs this season and is 16-11 vs. this line. He has also held the Reds’ current lineup to a .169 BA and a .203 SLG in 66 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant.

Cincinnati found some offence at the last second on Monday, but the club’s bats have largely been quiet for a while.

Since the all-star break, the Reds have a collective .248/.318/.376 slash line and rank 27th in wRC+ (89).

I don’t expect Berrios to get chased by this lineup, which should allow him to work deep enough to cash this prop.

Key stat: Berrios has pitched into the sixth inning or later in 21 of 27 starts this season.

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Jays prop pick

Schneider over 0.5 runs (+108): The depth of Toronto’s lineup has pushed Schneider well down in the pecking order. But he still wields a solid bat when given the chance.

• After getting optioned to Triple-A Buffalo in April, Schneider successfully hit the reset button and returned to Toronto on June 1.

• Since the start of June, he has 10 home runs and a .910 OPS in 153 plate appearances.

• In August alone, he had a 1.051 OPS in 19 games. He scored nine runs in 11 starts during that span.

Schneider doesn’t have drastic platoon splits, but the team likes to showcase him when a left-hander is on the mound.

He’ll likely bat in the No. 2 spot tonight against Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo. That’s where left-hitting Addison Barger slots in when a righty is pitching.

Behind Schneider will be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (151 wRC+ vs. LHPs) and Bo Bichette (220 wRC+ in the past two weeks). That’s a spectacular place to be.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 09/02/2025.

In the last MLB matchup on Labour Day, the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Texas Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Arizona took two of three in Texas a few weeks ago, but the Rangers have been the hotter squad lately. Texas is 8-1 in its past nine games, with seven multi-run wins in that span.

See why I like plenty of offence in my Rangers vs. Diamondbacks SGP predictions for Sept. 1, along with prop bets on Corbin Carroll and Josh Jung.

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions

Parlay: Carroll over 0.5 RBI | Jung over 0.5 hits | Over 7.5 runs (+280)

Carroll over 0.5 RBI (+132): Lefty-on-lefty matchups don’t scare Carroll. Especially not with the way he’s swinging the bat right now.

• Carroll posted a .292/.374/.611 slash line in August, collecting 18 extra-base hits in 29 games.

• The outfielder had 21 RBI in those 29 games, going 16-13 vs. this prop.

• On the season, Carroll is slugging .490 vs. left-handed pitchers.

At 5-foot-10 and with blistering speed, Carroll looks more like a leadoff man than an RBI producer. But he has tons of pop and was justifiably moved to Arizona’s No. 3 spot two and a half weeks ago.

Carroll is 3-for-8 in his career against Rangers southpaw Patrick Corbin.

More importantly, the two hitters in front of him — Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte — are a combined 10-for-21 vs. Corbin.

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MLB SGP legs

Jung over 0.5 hits (-278): Eight games don’t amount to much over a long MLB season, but Jung has put together a staggeringly good eight-game stretch entering Monday:

• 17-for-34 (.500)
• 1.308 OPS
• 6 extra-base hits
• 8 RBI

The third baseman is 2-for-4 against Arizona’s Ryne Nelson, including a double when they last met Aug. 11.

Nelson (7-3, 3.53 ERA) is having a solid year, but he gives up plenty of loud contact.

The right-hander ranks in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity (91.5 mph) and in the 41st percentile in expected batting average (.254).

Jung has cashed this bet in 23 of 29 starts since the all-star break.

Over 7.5 runs (-215): This over has cashed in eight of Nelson’s 10 starts since July. That includes a 7-6 win for the Rangers last month.

On the other side, we’re starting to see the version of Corbin bettors are accustomed to — meaning, a guy who gives up a lot of hits and runs.

He tossed eight shutout innings against the woeful Angels last time out, but Corbin has still been mostly bad in recent weeks. Prior to that start, he’d allowed 20 runs in 18.1 innings over five outings.

Since the start of the 2022 season, Corbin has the highest opponent batting average (.293) and the third-highest ERA (5.40) among 146 qualified pitchers.

Arizona is fifth in MLB in scoring (4.93 runs/game), but Texas can do damage, too.

The Rangers have scored 50 runs during a five-game winning streak.

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 09/01/2025.

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Most of MLB’s Labour Day action is coming in the afternoon, but a pair of my prop bets target the evening slate.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Brandon Lowe is a good pick to mash when there’s a right-hander on the mound, and I’m buying in on his platoon advantage Monday night. Elsewhere, Kyle Bradish looks to build off an excellent season debut in which he racked up a bunch of strikeouts.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 1, featuring a prediction on Carlos Correa.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bradish over 4.5 Ks (-103)

It’s been a nightmarish season for the Orioles, but a nice end-of-season run from Bradish would at least get the offseason started right.

Bradish made his season debut on Aug. 26 after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery. It was his first start since June 14, 2024.

The right-hander tossed 6.0 strong innings, allowing two runs on four hits over 81 pitchers.

Oh, and the headliner? He had 10 strikeouts.

For a guy making his first MLB start in 14-plus months, a 10 K outing really stands out. He only needs half of that production on Monday night to cash this prop bet.

Bradish is facing the San Diego Padres, who are admittedly a tough team to strike out. They have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (18.7%).

This just isn’t a hefty line for the average starting pitcher, and after Bradish’s explosive season debut, I think it should be well within reach.

Against the Red Sox last week, Bradish had a superb 43.2% whiff rate (16 whiffs on 37 swings).

Key stat: Bradish, who was the fourth-place AL Cy Young finisher in his most recent full season (2023), has a career 9.3 K/9 rate.

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Best MLB picks

Lowe over 1.5 total bases (+112): There’s a notable platoon advantage that I’m happy to tap into with this pick, as the left-hitting Lowe faces Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo.

• Lowe vs. RHPs (2025): .290/.349/.557 slash line

• Castillo vs. LHBs (2025): .289/.363/.491 slash line

Lowe has hit 24 of his 28 homers off righties, while Castillo’s opponent SLG jumps 131 points when a left-hitting player digs into the box.

These guys matched up three weeks ago, and Lowe greeted Castillo with a solo home run in the top of the first inning. All told, Lowe is 3-for-8 with two extra-base hits vs. Castillo.

August was a brutal month for Castillo, as he allowed 18 runs on 33 hits (6.66 ERA) over five starts.

Correa over 0.5 RBI (+155): Correa has recorded an RBI in four of nine games as the Astros’ cleanup man, and he’ll be back in that spot this afternoon against the Los Angeles Angels.

After a white-hot start in his return to Houston at the start of August, Correa cooled a bit over the back half. Still, there’s a lot to like here.

• Correa is 13-for-25 (.520) with a triple and two doubles vs. Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi.

• Houston has a ton of experience — and success — against Kikuchi. The lineup as a whole is batting .288 with a .562 SLG in 146 at-bats. More traffic on the basepaths would mean more RBI opportunities for Correa.

• Kikuchi is coming off his worst start of the year (six earned runs over 4.0 innings). He has a 5.40 ERA over his past 10 starts.

MLB prop picks made at 11:22 a.m. ET on 09/01/2025.