Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 9: Back Toronto as a run line favourite in series opener

A battle between American League division leaders begins on Tuesday, as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Houston is just 3-6 in its past nine games and now faces a Toronto team that has dominated at home (45-24). Luis Garcia will make his second start of the year for the Astros, while the Blue Jays are turning to a rested Shane Bieber.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 9, including props on George Springer and Jeremy Pena.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+137)

The Astros swept the Blue Jays when they last met in April. But that might as well have been light-years ago.

Take a look at how these teams have performed since the all-star break, and you’ll see a much different story:

Team	Record	Run Differential	wRC+	ERA
Blue Jays	27-20	+48	134	4.34
Astros	22-26	-37	92	4.42

The offensive discrepancy is what really stands out. Toronto has had the strongest lineup in the second half, while Houston isn’t even swinging it at a league-average rate.

Toronto has had two off-days in the past week, which allowed the club to line up its rotation how it wanted. Bieber is expected to start Tuesday on an extra day of rest, which has been a great thing for him in his career.

Four days’ rest (69 starts): 3.39 ERA, .667 opponent OPS

Five days’ rest (48 starts): 2.64 ERA, .612 opponent OPS

Bieber had one messy inning last time out, but his first three starts with Toronto have been very strong overall. He has a 2.74 FIP and a 21:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays are 2-1 vs. a -1.5 run line in those starts, too.

Each of the Astros’ past six losses has come by multiple runs. I like Bieber and the Blue Jays to add to that string.

Key stat: Toronto has the second-best run line record in MLB (82-61, 57.3%), per Team Rankings.

Jays prop picks

Pena over 0.5 runs (+115): Although I like Toronto’s chances to secure a win by margin, this plus-money price on Houston’s leadoff man was too good to ignore.

Pena is enjoying a breakout season, with 20 steals and an .833 OPS, which led to his first all-star appearance.

He hasn’t faced Bieber yet, but the Astros’ lineup collectively has some strong numbers against the right-hander: 14-for-46 (.304) with an .882 OPS.

Pena’s speed is an asset here, as is his relatively low strikeout rate (17.5%, 72nd percentile). I don’t expect the Astros to drum up a ton of offence, but Pena is in the best position to score.

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+105): How can you not buy in on Springer’s second-half surge?

The veteran has a .377/.472/.689 slash line in 31 games since the all-star break. He is 19-12 vs. this prop in that span.

Springer ranks in the 94th percentile or better in barrel rate, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant. His 160 wRC+ this season is behind only the league’s two MVP frontrunners, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

It’s incredible work for the 35-year-old, and it means a price like this is totally playable.

Especially when you consider that Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and a double vs. Garcia.

Blue Jays best bets made at 2:49 p.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

College football Week 3 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on South Florida vs. Miami, Ohio vs. Ohio State

A pair of top-five NCAA Division I programs are featured in this week’s four-pack of college football picks.

The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes host a plucky Ohio Bobcats squad that should push the defending champs a bit. Meanwhile, the No. 17 South Florida Bulls put their impressive start on the line against the No. 5 Miami (FL) Hurricanes.

Check out the best college football Week 3 picks, featuring an over/under pick for the Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. California Golden Bears matchup.

College football picks Week 3

Best bet: South Florida/Miami under 56 points (-108)

South Florida has two top-25 upset wins in as many weeks. If the Bulls are going to have a shot at a third one, I think they’ll need to muck things up.

The Bulls were in a rock fight last week in The Swamp, trailing 9-6 at halftime in a battle of field goals before eventually upsetting then-No. 13 Florida, 18-16.

In the week before, South Florida bottled up the Ashton Jeanty-less Boise State Broncos in a 34-7 win.

USF has forced six fumbles and corralled four turnovers through two weeks.

Miami has looked strong with Carson Beck under centre so far, but both of the Hurricanes’ games went under this total.

Both defences rank in the top 50 in the country in EPA per play, according to Game On Paper.

The Hurricanes hung 50 points on the Bulls last year, but that was with Cam Ward under centre.

A lot has changed since then, and USF’s performance against D.J. Lagway and Florida has me bullish — sorry — on the visitors.

Key stat: Unders are 6-1-1 when South Florida is an underdog since the start of last season, per Team Rankings.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

No. 1 Buckeyes face in-state Bobcats

Ohio +31.5 (-110): I know Ohio State is the defending national champion — and I might be slightly biased as an Ohio University graduate — but this is a lot of points to give the Bobcats after an encouraging start.

Ohio fell just short of a comeback against Rutgers in Week 1, losing 34-31 as a 15.5-point underdog.

This past Saturday, the Bobcats beat the West Virginia Mountaineers, 17-10, as 3.5-point dogs.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Parker Navarro gives the Bobcats poise and experience under centre. After rushing for 1,046 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, he has accounted for 666 passing/rushing yards and four total TDs through two games.

Remember, he’s putting up those numbers against Power Four programs — not FCS doormats.

Speaking of which, Ohio State did post a 70-0 win last week over Grambling State (FCS). But this week’s pay game should be much, much punchier.

Ohio is 6-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

More college football best bets

UAB -11.5 (-110): I faded the UAB Blazers last week, and it didn’t work out. Though they were blanked in the second half, the Blazers were tied with Navy at halftime and comfortably covered a hefty underdog spread.

Now, UAB is rightfully favoured against the truly atrocious Akron Zips.

Akron is still looking for its first points of the season. The team has been outscored 78-0 through two games.

The Zips are 5-11 ATS in non-conference play over the past four seasons. Last year, they lost all three of their D-I non-conference games by 32+ points.

The Blazers at least know how to drum up some offence. Quarterback Jalen Kitna — son of ex-NFL QB Jon Kitna — has thrown for 551 yards and four TDs on 10.0 yards/attempt through two games.

Akron ranks dead last in D-I in net EPA per play.

Full NCAAF betting markets

Minnesota/California over 43.5 points (-108): It’s time to learn the name Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

The Hawaiian-born QB, who originally committed to Oregon, was the No. 7 quarterback in 247 Sports’ class of 2025. He’s been solid through two games, throwing for 493 yards and three TDs while adding a score on the ground.

Cal scored 34 and 35 points, respectively, in its first two games. I think Sagapolutele can help the Golden Bears contribute to this low total.

Then there’s Minnesota, a team that put up 59 points in the first half last week before calling off the dogs. Sure, that was against Northwestern State (FCS), but it’s an exciting stat line for P.J. Fleck’s crew.

Minnesota’s offence ranks 27th in success rate and 29th in EPA/play.

College football picks made at 2 p.m. on 09/09/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 9: Back Toronto as a run line favourite in series opener

A battle between American League division leaders begins on Tuesday, as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Houston is just 3-6 in its past nine games and now faces a Toronto team that has dominated at home (45-24). Luis Garcia will make his second start of the year for the Astros, while the Blue Jays are turning to a rested Shane Bieber.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 9, including props on George Springer and Jeremy Pena.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)

The Astros swept the Blue Jays when they last met in April. But that might as well have been light-years ago.

Take a look at how these teams have performed since the all-star break, and you’ll see a much different story:

Team	Record	Run Differential	wRC+	ERA
Blue Jays	27-20	+48	134	4.34
Astros	22-26	-37	92	4.42

The offensive discrepancy is what really stands out. Toronto has had the strongest lineup in the second half, while Houston isn’t even swinging it at a league-average rate.

Toronto has had two off-days in the past week, which allowed the club to line up its rotation how it wanted. Bieber is expected to start Tuesday on an extra day of rest, which has been a great thing for him in his career.

Four days’ rest (69 starts): 3.39 ERA, .667 opponent OPS

Five days’ rest (48 starts): 2.64 ERA, .612 opponent OPS

Bieber had one messy inning last time out, but his first three starts with Toronto have been very strong overall. He has a 2.74 FIP and a 21:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays are 2-1 vs. a -1.5 run line in those starts, too.

Each of the Astros’ past six losses has come by multiple runs. I like Bieber and the Blue Jays to add to that string.

Key stat: Toronto has the second-best run line record in MLB (82-61, 57.3%), per Team Rankings.

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Jays prop picks

Pena over 0.5 runs (+114): Although I like Toronto’s chances to secure a win by margin, this plus-money price on Houston’s leadoff man was too good to ignore.

Pena is enjoying a breakout season, with 20 steals and an .833 OPS, which led to his first all-star appearance.

He hasn’t faced Bieber yet, but the Astros’ lineup collectively has some strong numbers against the right-hander: 14-for-46 (.304) with an .882 OPS.

Pena’s speed is an asset here, as is his relatively low strikeout rate (17.5%, 72nd percentile). I don’t expect the Astros to drum up a ton of offence, but Pena is in the best position to score.

Springer over 1.5 total bases (-106): How can you not buy in on Springer’s second-half surge?

The veteran has a .377/.472/.689 slash line in 31 games since the all-star break. He is 19-12 vs. this prop in that span.

Springer ranks in the 94th percentile or better in barrel rate, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant. His 160 wRC+ this season is behind only the league’s two MVP frontrunners, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

It’s incredible work for the 35-year-old, and it means a price like this is totally playable.

Especially when you consider that Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and a double vs. Garcia.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:49 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

Commanders vs. Packers Week 2 Thursday Night Football picks: Take Green Bay to cover, Doubs to make his mark

A pair of NFC contenders kick off Week 2 on Thursday Night Football, as the Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay earned a statement win over the Detroit Lions in Week 1, while the Washington Commanders made quick work of the New York Giants. In this short-week showdown at Lambeau Field, the Packers are 3.5-point favourites.

Check out my Commanders vs. Packers picks for the TNF matchup on Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on Romeo Doubs and Deebo Samuel.

Commanders vs. Packers picks

Best bet: Doubs 40+ receiving yards (-121)

On a short week, the healthiest Packers receiver seems to be Doubs.

Green Bay didn’t practice on Monday, but a trio of wideouts popped up on the injury report estimate: Matthew Golden (ankle, limited), Dontayvion Wicks (calf, limited) and Jayden Reed (foot, did not participate).

It’s nice to see that Doubs, who battled concussion issues a season ago, came out of Week 1 with a clean bill of health.

In an offence believed to have a lot of WR2/3 options, Doubs has the best chance early in the season to achieve WR1 status.

He had a 71% snap share in Week 1, per Football Guys. No other receiver was above 48%.

Last week, Doubs had 92 of the 196 air yards (46.9%) obtained by Green Bay’s WR corps.

Golden, Wicks and/or Reed could all come off the injury report before Thursday, but it’s worth noting that Doubs seems to have a leg up on the rest of the WR room in terms of health.

And though the Packers had a quiet day in the passing game against the Lions, Doubs led the way with a pair of catches for 68 yards on four targets.

Until Golden’s ascent as his rookie year progresses, I expect a healthy Doubs to be the lead dog of this group. With that in mind, 40 yards doesn’t seem like much of an ask.

Key stat: Doubs went 8-5 vs. this yardage milestone in the regular season last year.

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Thursday Night Football ATS pick

Packers -3.5 (-109): I hate the hook here, but I love what I saw out of the Packers in Week 1 against a Detroit Lions team that went 15-2 last year.

Green Bay built up a 27-6 lead before allowing a garbage-time touchdown in the final minute. Either way, it was a comfortable win as a -1.5 favourite over the NFC’s reigning No. 1 seed.

The Packers held the Lions to a feeble 3.8 yards per play — 29th in the NFL — in Micah Parsons’ debut.

Parsons only played 30 of a possible 67 snaps and should continue to ramp up following a soap-operatic offseason (he averaged 81.6% of snaps for the Cowboys last year).

In fairness, the Commanders handled business in Week 1 as well, but that was against the lowly New York Giants. A primetime date at Lambeau will be a much tougher task.

Since the start of last season, the Packers rank fifth in defensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com.

In the same span, Green Bay ranks eighth in offensive EPA per rush, and Washington is 29th in defensive EPA per rush.

Back Deebo after Washington debut

Samuel over 4.5 receptions (+114): Not to be over-reactionary off one game, but Samuel was highly involved in his Commanders’ debut, and I’d like to buy in.

The ex-49er had a team-high 10 targets, turning that into seven catches for 77 yards. He added one rush for 19 yards, too.

Green Bay did a great job preventing explosive plays in Week 1, and if that holds true on Thursday, Samuel should be the beneficiary of some underneath looks.

According to Fantasy Pros, Samuel averaged 5.4 yards before catch per reception. He should be a viable safety valve for Jayden Daniels if Parsons and Co. are close to getting home.

Commanders vs. Packers picks made at 11:43 a.m. ET 09/09/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Sept. 9-11: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

A series with major playoff seeding implications begins in Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Blue Jays host the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre.

Toronto (82-61) still stands atop the American League, but Houston (78-66) can gain ground in this three-game set. The Astros, who hold the No. 3 seed and are currently on track to miss out on a bye, swept the Jays at home in April.

Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 9-11 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview

A lot has changed since these teams last met up on the field.

Back in late April, Toronto went 0-3 in Houston as part of an extended slide. In a five-week span, the Jays went 14-20 and fell to 8.0 games back in the AL East (as of May 27).

Now, Toronto is the frontrunner in its division and in the league as a whole.

Embed: #117726

Houston has been playing sub-.500 ball since the start of August, but a wild-card bye is still in play — especially if this series goes well for the visiting Astros. Houston only needs to win once in Toronto this week to have the head-to-head tiebreaker, too, which could matter later on.

Hitting hasn’t been a problem for the Jays. They’re slugging .491 in the second half, which easily paces the majors.

It’s the bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA since the all-star break (5.38), that has caused problems down the stretch. Fatigue cannot be an excuse at this point, though, given that Toronto was off Thursday and Monday.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA)

After a 28-month hiatus as he rehabbed and recovered from Tommy John surgery, Garcia returned to the mound for the Astros last Monday. He struck out six and posted a quality start in a winning effort. Garcia has a healthy 25.6% K rate vs. the Blue Jays’ active lineup, with 21 Ks in 82 plate appearances.

One nightmarish inning ruined Bieber’s stat line last time out, but his stuff has been very sharp overall through three starts with Toronto. Through 17.1 innings, Bieber has 21 strikeouts and just two walks, as well as a 56.1% ground-ball rate (league average is 42.3%).

Sept. 10: RHP Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA)

Alexander has allowed six homers in his past four starts. He ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Berrios has solid numbers in a large sample against the Astros’ active lineup, holding them to a .229 BA and a .376 SLG in 109 at-bats. Toronto is 19-9 in his starts this year, even though his 108 ERA+ is only scraping above league average.

Sept. 11: RHP Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA)

Thursday marks Javier’s second road start of the season, and the first one was a mess (2.0 IP, three hits, four walks, five runs). In his career, Javier has a 2.81 ERA at home and a 4.56 ERA on the road.

Gausman was on the wrong end of a 7-0 loss to the Astros in April, but he has largely dominated Houston over the years. In 107 at-bats against the active lineup, Gausman has held the club to a .168 BA and a .290 SLG while posting a 42.0% K rate.

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Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat, but he’s back where he belongs in Toronto’s leadoff spot. Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Springer has a .346/.446/.731 slash line in 20 games. He’s 15-5 vs. his run prop in that span while averaging 2.9 total bases per game.

Addison Barger (OF): With three right-handed pitchers on the docket for Houston this week, the left-hitting Barger should see plenty of opportunities to bust out of his four-week slump. Since Aug. 12, Barger is 12-for-73 (.164) with just three extra-base hits and 18 strikeouts.

Yordan Alvarez (DH/OF): A hand injury kept Alvarez out for the better part of four months, but he’s come back in a major way for Houston. In 12 games since returning, Alvarez has three HRs and a 1.229 OPS. He has multiple hits in four of his past six.

Jose Altuve (2B): Altuve is batting .162 with a sub-.300 SLG in his past 25 games. And he’s hitless in 14 of those. Interestingly, the veteran infielder is pretty much the only Astro with encouraging numbers against Gausman (5-for-14, one HR, two doubles).

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (84-60, 58.3%).

The Astros have the 6th-worst run line record overall (67-77, 46.5%) … but their run line record on the road is much better (38-31, 55.1%).

Overs are 80-57-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

In the Jays’ past nine home games, overs are 8-1.

Unders went 3-0 in the Astros/Blue Jays series in April. The teams combined to score just 17 total runs (5.7 runs/game).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 2+ hits in five straight games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 total bases in 11 of his past 15 games.

Astros vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Sept. 9-11: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

A series with major playoff seeding implications begins in Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Blue Jays host the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre.

Toronto (82-61) still stands atop the American League, but Houston (78-66) can gain ground in this three-game set. The Astros, who hold the No. 3 seed and are currently on track to miss out on a bye, swept the Jays at home in April.

Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 9-11 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview

A lot has changed since these teams last met up on the field.

Back in late April, Toronto went 0-3 in Houston as part of an extended slide. In a five-week span, the Jays went 14-20 and fell to 8.0 games back in the AL East (as of May 27).

Now, Toronto is the frontrunner in its division and in the league as a whole.

Houston has been playing sub-.500 ball since the start of August, but a wild-card bye is still in play — especially if this series goes well for the visiting Astros. Houston only needs to win once in Toronto this week to have the head-to-head tiebreaker, too, which could matter later on.

Hitting hasn’t been a problem for the Jays. They’re slugging .491 in the second half, which easily paces the majors.

It’s the bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA since the all-star break (5.38), that has caused problems down the stretch. Fatigue cannot be an excuse at this point, though, given that Toronto was off Thursday and Monday.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA)

After a 28-month hiatus as he rehabbed and recovered from Tommy John surgery, Garcia returned to the mound for the Astros last Monday. He struck out six and posted a quality start in a winning effort. Garcia has a healthy 25.6% K rate vs. the Blue Jays’ active lineup, with 21 Ks in 82 plate appearances.

One nightmarish inning ruined Bieber’s stat line last time out, but his stuff has been very sharp overall through three starts with Toronto. Through 17.1 innings, Bieber has 21 strikeouts and just two walks, as well as a 56.1% ground-ball rate (league average is 42.3%).

Sept. 10: RHP Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA)

Alexander has allowed six homers in his past four starts. He ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Berrios has solid numbers in a large sample against the Astros’ active lineup, holding them to a .229 BA and a .376 SLG in 109 at-bats. Toronto is 19-9 in his starts this year, even though his 108 ERA+ is only scraping above league average.

Sept. 11: RHP Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA)

Thursday marks Javier’s second road start of the season, and the first one was a mess (2.0 IP, three hits, four walks, five runs). In his career, Javier has a 2.81 ERA at home and a 4.56 ERA on the road.

Gausman was on the wrong end of a 7-0 loss to the Astros in April, but he has largely dominated Houston over the years. In 107 at-bats against the active lineup, Gausman has held the club to a .168 BA and a .290 SLG while posting a 42.0% K rate.

Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat, but he’s back where he belongs in Toronto’s leadoff spot. Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Springer has a .346/.446/.731 slash line in 20 games. He’s 15-5 vs. his run prop in that span while averaging 2.9 total bases per game.

Addison Barger (OF): With three right-handed pitchers on the docket for Houston this week, the left-hitting Barger should see plenty of opportunities to bust out of his four-week slump. Since Aug. 12, Barger is 12-for-73 (.164) with just three extra-base hits and 18 strikeouts.

Yordan Alvarez (DH/OF): A hand injury kept Alvarez out for the better part of four months, but he’s come back in a major way for Houston. In 12 games since returning, Alvarez has three HRs and a 1.229 OPS. He has multiple hits in four of his past six.

Jose Altuve (2B): Altuve is batting .162 with a sub-.300 SLG in his past 25 games. And he’s hitless in 14 of those. Interestingly, the veteran infielder is pretty much the only Astro with encouraging numbers against Gausman (5-for-14, one HR, two doubles).

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (84-60, 58.3%).

The Astros have the 6th-worst run line record overall (67-77, 46.5%) … but their run line record on the road is much better (38-31, 55.1%).

Overs are 80-57-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

In the Jays’ past nine home games, overs are 8-1.

Unders went 3-0 in the Astros/Blue Jays series in April. The teams combined to score just 17 total runs (5.7 runs/game).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 2+ hits in five straight games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 total bases in 11 of his past 15 games.

MLB home run picks Sept. 8: Eugenio Suarez, Juan Soto look to stay hot

Eugenio Suarez and Juan Soto are both swinging hot bats right now, and they’re the MLB home run targets I’m most excited about on Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB’s top 20 in slugging percentage over the past two weeks.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 8.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+300)

I’m loving this price for a guy who’s been among the very best home run hitters this season.

Suarez’s 45 homers are the fourth-most in MLB this season, ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.

The third baseman homered in back-to-back games over the weekend to close out the Mariners’ road trip. He also homered in back-to-back games at the end of their most recent homestand (Aug. 26-27).

The main issue when Suarez digs in at the plate is his propensity to swing and miss.

But when he’s facing a soft-tossing, low-strikeout guy — as is the case tonight — that concern largely goes away.

Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. He ranks in the third percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

Suarez knows a thing or two about Mikolas, as the pair has a decent volume of head-to-head matchups on their ledger. Seattle’s slugger is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Mikolas with four HRs and a double.

Mikolas’ home/road splits are another noteworthy factor. He loves to work inside St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, but things get quite dicey elsewhere:

Home (14 starts): 7 HRs allowed, .360 opponent SLG

Road (13 starts): 17 HRs allowed, .623 opponent SLG

Key stat: Over his past 20 games, Suarez has eight HRs and a .964 OPS.

Best HR predictions

Soto to hit a home run (+320): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park is the most homer-friendly venue for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.

In that span, LHBs are hitting 29% more homers in Philly than the league average.

That’s a nice place to start when backing the left-hitting Soto, but it’s far from the only reason I’m buying in on Monday.

Soto has a .537 SLG and three HRs in 41 at-bats vs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

In his past 30 games, Soto has 13 HRs and a .308/.468/.701 slash line. He also has more hits (33) and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29) in that span.

Nola has posted a 9.96 ERA with nine HRs allowed in his past six starts.

Soto draws walks as well as anyone in the majors, but he’s also tearing the cover off the ball when hittable pitches come his way.

He ranks in either the 98th or 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.

MLB home run picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 8: Eugenio Suarez, Juan Soto look to stay hot

Eugenio Suarez and Juan Soto are both swinging hot bats right now, and they’re the MLB home run targets I’m most excited about on Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB’s top 20 in slugging percentage over the past two weeks.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 8.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+390)

I’m loving this price for a guy who’s been among the very best home run hitters this season.

Suarez’s 45 homers are the fourth-most in MLB this season, ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.

The third baseman homered in back-to-back games over the weekend to close out the Mariners’ road trip. He also homered in back-to-back games at the end of their most recent homestand (Aug. 26-27).

The main issue when Suarez digs in at the plate is his propensity to swing and miss.

But when he’s facing a soft-tossing, low-strikeout guy — as is the case tonight — that concern largely goes away.

Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. He ranks in the third percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

Suarez knows a thing or two about Mikolas, as the pair has a decent volume of head-to-head matchups on their ledger. Seattle’s slugger is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Mikolas with four HRs and a double.

Mikolas’ home/road splits are another noteworthy factor. He loves to work inside St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, but things get quite dicey elsewhere:

Home (14 starts): 7 HRs allowed, .360 opponent SLG

Road (13 starts): 17 HRs allowed, .623 opponent SLG

Key stat: Over his past 20 games, Suarez has eight HRs and a .964 OPS.

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Best HR predictions

Soto to hit a home run (+360): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park is the most homer-friendly venue for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.

In that span, LHBs are hitting 29% more homers in Philly than the league average.

That’s a nice place to start when backing the left-hitting Soto, but it’s far from the only reason I’m buying in on Monday.

Soto has a .537 SLG and three HRs in 41 at-bats vs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

In his past 30 games, Soto has 13 HRs and a .308/.468/.701 slash line. He also has more hits (33) and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29) in that span.

Nola has posted a 9.96 ERA with nine HRs allowed in his past six starts.

Soto draws walks as well as anyone in the majors, but he’s also tearing the cover off the ball when hittable pitches come his way.

He ranks in either the 98th or 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.

MLB home run picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

Michigan vs. Oklahoma college football Week 2 SGP predictions: Bet on Haynes, Mateer in +410 parlay

In the lone ranked-versus-ranked matchup of the week, the No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners host the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: This game features two of the most notable offseason transfers in Justice Haynes (Michigan) and John Mateer (Oklahoma). Both players look to build off stellar debuts with their new programs.

Check out my Michigan vs. Oklahoma same-game parlay predictions for Sept. 6, featuring Justice Haynes.

Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions

Parlay: Haynes anytime TD | Mateer 200+ pass yards | Under 50.5 points (+410)

Haynes anything TD (-113): Haynes was the top-rated running back transfer this offseason, according to 247 Sports, and he wasted no time showing Michigan what he can do.

In his debut for the Wolverines, Haynes stormed for 159 yards and three touchdowns on 16 carries.

He scored inside the five-yard line twice but also flashed his home run speed with a 56-yard TD to open the scoring

Oklahoma has a stout defence — more on that in a moment — but its primary strength last year was in the passing game. The Sooners’ defence ranked No. 1 in EPA per pass in 2024, according to Game On Paper, but only No. 91 in EPA per rush.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

Wolverines vs. Sooners SGP picks

Mateer 200+ passing yards (-385): I have a lot of respect for Michigan’s defence year after year, so I teased this yardage line way down. But at this milestone, Mateer should absolutely hit the over.

The Washington State transfer threw for 261.6 yards/game and 29 touchdowns last year in his first opportunity as a starter.

He also lit it up in his Oklahoma debut, completing 30 of 37 passes for 392 yards and three scores against Illinois State (FCS).

Given the quality of the opponent, that might not seem super impressive. But it’s notable given that the Sooners struggled to get the run game going (103 yards on 32 carries).

Mateer has cashed this yardage milestone in eight of 12 games since the start of last season.

Under 50.5 points (-250): I touted an alt under for this game in a +318 college football parlay already, and it makes for a great final leg on this ticket.

Both Michigan and Oklahoma had top-40 defences last year in terms of EPA per play. The Sooners have some studs returning, including sack leader R Mason Thomas.

Michigan has a fair amount of turnover on defence, which is what happens when you’re consistently sending players to the NFL. But the unit has finished in the top 20 in defensive EPA in eight of the past 10 years, so I expect a proper reload.

If either offence is liable to crumble, it could be the visiting Wolverines. Facing a blue blood program in a road environment is a tough ask for true freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to overcome.

Michigan vs. Oklahoma predictions made at 3:55 p.m. ET on 09/04/2025

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 4: Fade Judge, look for Skenes to shine vs. Dodgers

There’s no shortage of star power in Thursday’s MLB prop bets, with Aaron Judge and Paul Skenes gracing the marquee.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Judge is a worthy fade candidate tonight against the Houston Astros, while Skenes looks to build on an impressive track record against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 4, including a prediction on Yandy Diaz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Judge under 1.5 total bases (-118)

Judge is having an otherworldly season, and it wouldn’t be wise to make a habit of fading him too often.

But he hasn’t been that great since the all-star break, and tonight’s matchup is one I’m comfortable fading him in.

In the second half, Judge is batting .229 with a 129 wRC+ (47th in MLB).

Most of his recent offensive value has come from walks rather than a power display. Judge has more walks (28) than hits (27) since July 18.

Houston right-hander Cristian Javier is known to walk batters in bunches. He has nine walks through 16.0 innings this season, and his 3.79 BB/9 since 2021 is 18th-highest among 200 qualifiers.

Walks are good for this bet because they don’t count as bases. Judge has a 99th-percentile walk rate (16.8%), per Baseball Savant, which makes him a good fit with the wild Javier.

There’s also Judge’s head-to-head history against Javier, which is strikingly in the pitcher’s favour.

Judge is 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts and two walks vs. Javier.

Key stat: Since the all-star break, Judge has gone under 1.5 bases in 22 of 33 games.

Best MLB picks

Skenes over 6.5 Ks (-130): The Los Angeles Dodgers drew the short straw of facing Skenes in both series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s had no problem mowing down the defending champs.

On April 25 in L.A., Skenes struck out nine Dodgers over 6.1 innings.

Last year, Skenes had 16 Ks over 11.0 IP vs. the Dodgers, cashing this prop in both outings.

Those results are very encouraging, and they play into Skenes’ overall status as a big-time strikeout force.

He’s averaging 6.7 Ks per start this year and is 15-13 vs. this number.

Diaz over 0.5 runs (-108): Diaz has been feasting lately, and his near-even-money price to score on a struggling pitcher has my attention.

Over his past 25 games, Diaz has a .351/.400/.557 slash line. He has reached base multiple times in 16 of those games.

Diaz is 7-3 vs. this prop in his past 10 games.

Cleveland’s Logan Allen has a 5.28 ERA since the all-star break, allowing 63 baserunners in 44.1 IP.

Diaz has an .893 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season, so he’s wielding a nice platoon advantage, too.

MLB prop picks made at 1:25 p.m. ET on 09/04/2025.