Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame college football Week 3 SGP predictions: Look for Love, Reed to shine in ground game

Coming out of a bye week, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have another ranked-on-ranked matchup against the Texas A&M Aggies.

The pregame narrative: After losing on the road against Miami (now No. 5 in the country), No. 8 Notre Dame hosts No. 16 Texas A&M. Last year, the Irish beat the Aggies, 23-13, on the road. Notre Dame is a 6-point favourite in the rematch.

Check out my Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame same-game parlay predictions for Sept. 13, featuring prop bets on Eli Raridon, Jeremiyah Love and Marcel Reed.

Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame predictions

Parlay: Raridon 40+ rec. yards | Love anytime TD | Reed 30+ rush yards (+360)

Raridon 40+ receiving yards (-159): The Irish have a long history of sending tight ends to the NFL.

There are six active TEs in the league right now that were drafted in the top three rounds out of Notre Dame. Raridon could be next.

The 6-foot-7 senior balled out in his first game as ND’s starter, garnering 97 yards on a team-high nine targets. That included an off-schedule deep ball from freshman quarterback CJ Carr for 65 yards.

6️⃣5️⃣ YARDS TO ELI RARIDON #GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/FvPswLjVKu
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) September 1, 2025

Raridon’s target share, as well as a play like this one, suggests he could be a safety valve for the young QB. And with that in mind, a 40-yard total shouldn’t be too much to ask.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

Aggies vs. Fighting Irish SGP picks

Love anytime TD (-215): Love had a slow start in Week 1 against No. 5 Miami, finishing with just 33 rush yards on 10 carries.

That’s far from the norm for one of the top running backs in the upcoming draft class, though. Love absolutely tore it up last year:

1,125 rush yards
6.9 yards/carry
19 TDs
1+ TDs in 14 of 16 games

In Notre Dame’s 2024 season opener, Love rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries vs. Texas A&M.

The Aggies had a middle-of-the-pack run defence last year, allowing 4.1 yards per carry (79th out of 134 NCAA Division I schools). This season, they coughed up 203 rushing yards on 6.2 yards/carry in their opener against the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA).

Reed 30+ rush yards (-177): I really don’t like that sacks count against quarterback rushing yards at the college level. But alas, this is still a milestone Reed should hit.

Reed rushed 116 times for 543 yards and seven TDs last season in 11 games (eight starts).

He tallied 30+ rush yards in nine of 11 games and averaged 10.5 attempts/game.

In 2025, Reed has 105 rush yards through two games and is 2-0 vs. this prop.

Notre Dame only sacked Miami quarterback Carson Beck once in its season opener. As long as the Irish don’t make a habit of getting home, Reed should cruise past this total.

Texas A&M vs. Notre Dame predictions made at 1:52 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025

MLB home run picks Sept. 12: Eugenio Suarez, Vinnie Pasquantino both have promising matchups

Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez’s Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a park built for lefty power bats.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 12.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+320)

Suarez has been my most common HR pick this season, I think. He just seems to always have a better price than the other sluggers in his orbit.

The third baseman is one of just five players this year with 45-plus homers. And though he’s been pretty cold at the plate lately, the power is still there.

Over his past 20 games, Suarez is just 14-for-73 (.192) … but half of those 14 hits were home runs.

On the season, Suarez has a sixth-percentile xBA (.218), according to Baseball Savant. But he also has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.0%).

Suarez has an all-or-nothing offensive profile, which is fine for a bet like this. I’m just looking for him to connect once.

Tonight’s matchup against Kikuchi is a good one for Suarez, given the pitch mix Kikuchi tends to deploy against right-handed batters.

RHBs are slugging .459 vs. Kikuchi this year, coming to a .336 SLG for LHBs. Kikuchi also has a much higher opponent OPS on the road (.849) than at home (.704).

Kikuchi throws four-seam fastballs and sliders roughly 70% of the time to RHBs. Those happen to be Suarez’s favourite pitches to mash.

Suarez is slugging .594 vs. four-seamers and sliders this year, and 27 of his 45 homers have come off those pitches.

Key stat: Suarez is 5-for-12 with three HRs in his career vs. Kikuchi.

Best HR predictions

Pasquantino to hit a home run (+333): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia has been the most homer-friendly venue for LHBs over the past three seasons (29% more HRs than average).

Enter, Pasquantino.

The 245-pound first baseman has been a slugging machine lately, teeing off for eight homers and a .616 SLG over his past 23 games.

Pasquantino has the platoon advantage tonight against Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s allowing an .877 OPS vs. LHBs this season.

For his part, Pasquantino has a .506 SLG vs. righties.

Buehler ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff rate. Pasquantino should have a chance to run into one.

MLB home run picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 12: Bet on Clement with a platoon advantage, fade offence overall

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles close the book on their season series with a three-game set that starts Friday at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a lost season for Baltimore, but the O’s are playing well right now (8-1 in their past nine) and have played the Jays tough this season (6-4 vs. Toronto). Trevor Rogers, who’s easily been the best individual story of Baltimore’s season, will start against Chris Bassitt.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for Sept. 12, including a prop bet on Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs – first five innings (-150)

Bassitt has been lights out at home this year, and Rogers has been lights out everywhere.

Put ’em together, and we’re looking at a pitching matchup that should be able to suppress offence.

Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA and a .688 opponent OPS at home this season. On the road, he’s 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA and an .802 opponent OPS.

In Baltimore on July 28, Bassitt coughed up six earned runs over just 2.1 innings. But earlier in the year, he held the Orioles to one run over 6.0 IP at Rogers Centre.

You wouldn’t know how abysmal the Orioles’ season has been by looking at Rogers’ numbers. He’s been an exceptional surprise — it just hasn’t been enough for the team as a whole.

Rogers’ 5.2 bWAR more than eclipses his five-year career total entering ’25 (4.1 bWAR). He has a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts.

The 6-foot-5 southpaw should be able to hold up his end of the bargain in keeping scoring to a minimum. In 13 consecutive starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs while working into the sixth or later.

Rogers has very minimal experience vs. the Blue Jays, but the small sample is an encouraging one.

Toronto’s active lineup is just 6-for-26 (.231) with zero extra-base hits against him.

Key stat: This F5 under is 10-6 in Bassitt’s home starts this season.

Jays prop pick

Clement over 1.5 bases (+140): It’s mid-September, and Clement is still worth a look when a price like this pops up against a left-handed pitcher.

I know I was just highlighting how great Rogers is doing, but Clement is having a surprisingly strong season of his own — at least when facing a lefty.

Clement has a .331/.360/.558 slash line vs. LHPs this season.

His 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 15th in MLB among 151 qualified hitters.

Clement is 1-for-3 against Rogers, so at least he’s seen the guy before. And in his past 13 games overall, Clement is 7-6 vs. this prop with an .834 OPS.

Blue Jays best bets made at 12:07 p.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 12: Eugenio Suarez, Vinnie Pasquantino both have promising matchups

Eugenio Suarez is flirting with a 50-homer season, and I expect him to get closer on Friday night in Seattle.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez’s Mariners host Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels, and this has been an effective matchup for the all-star infielder before. Earlier on, look for Vinnie Pasquantino to stay hot in a park built for lefty power bats.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 12.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+360)

Suarez has been my most common HR pick this season, I think. He just seems to always have a better price than the other sluggers in his orbit.

The third baseman is one of just five players this year with 45-plus homers. And though he’s been pretty cold at the plate lately, the power is still there.

Over his past 20 games, Suarez is just 14-for-73 (.192) … but half of those 14 hits were home runs.

On the season, Suarez has a sixth-percentile xBA (.218), according to Baseball Savant. But he also has an 89th-percentile barrel rate (14.0%).

Suarez has an all-or-nothing offensive profile, which is fine for a bet like this. I’m just looking for him to connect once.

Tonight’s matchup against Kikuchi is a good one for Suarez, given the pitch mix Kikuchi tends to deploy against right-handed batters.

RHBs are slugging .459 vs. Kikuchi this year, coming to a .336 SLG for LHBs. Kikuchi also has a much higher opponent OPS on the road (.849) than at home (.704).

Kikuchi throws four-seam fastballs and sliders roughly 70% of the time to RHBs. Those happen to be Suarez’s favourite pitches to mash.

Suarez is slugging .594 vs. four-seamers and sliders this year, and 27 of his 45 homers have come off those pitches.

Key stat: Suarez is 5-for-12 with three HRs in his career vs. Kikuchi.

Embed: #117866

Best HR predictions

Pasquantino to hit a home run (+380): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors, Citizen Bank Park in Philadelphia has been the most homer-friendly venue for LHBs over the past three seasons (29% more HRs than average).

Enter, Pasquantino.

The 245-pound first baseman has been a slugging machine lately, teeing off for eight homers and a .616 SLG over his past 23 games.

Pasquantino has the platoon advantage tonight against Phillies right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s allowing an .877 OPS vs. LHBs this season.

For his part, Pasquantino has a .506 SLG vs. righties.

Buehler ranks in the bottom-10th percentile in xERA, xBA and whiff rate. Pasquantino should have a chance to run into one.

MLB home run picks made at 10:57 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

Orioles vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 12: Bet on Clement with a platoon advantage, fade offence overall

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles close the book on their season series with a three-game set that starts Friday at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a lost season for Baltimore, but the O’s are playing well right now (8-1 in their past nine) and have played the Jays tough this season (6-4 vs. Toronto). Trevor Rogers, who’s easily been the best individual story of Baltimore’s season, will start against Chris Bassitt.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Orioles for Sept. 12, including a prop bet on Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Orioles

Best bet: Under 4.5 runs – first five innings (-143)

Bassitt has been lights out at home this year, and Rogers has been lights out everywhere.

Put ’em together, and we’re looking at a pitching matchup that should be able to suppress offence.

Bassitt is 8-0 with a 2.76 ERA and a .688 opponent OPS at home this season. On the road, he’s 3-8 with a 5.42 ERA and an .802 opponent OPS.

In Baltimore on July 28, Bassitt coughed up six earned runs over just 2.1 innings. But earlier in the year, he held the Orioles to one run over 6.0 IP at Rogers Centre.

You wouldn’t know how abysmal the Orioles’ season has been by looking at Rogers’ numbers. He’s been an exceptional surprise — it just hasn’t been enough for the team as a whole.

Rogers’ 5.2 bWAR more than eclipses his five-year career total entering ’25 (4.1 bWAR). He has a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts.

The 6-foot-5 southpaw should be able to hold up his end of the bargain in keeping scoring to a minimum. In 13 consecutive starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs while working into the sixth or later.

Rogers has very minimal experience vs. the Blue Jays, but the small sample is an encouraging one.

Toronto’s active lineup is just 6-for-26 (.231) with zero extra-base hits against him.

Key stat: This F5 under is 10-6 in Bassitt’s home starts this season.

Embed: #117863

Jays prop pick

Clement over 1.5 bases (+138): It’s mid-September, and Clement is still worth a look when a price like this pops up against a left-handed pitcher.

I know I was just highlighting how great Rogers is doing, but Clement is having a surprisingly strong season of his own — at least when facing a lefty.

Clement has a .331/.360/.558 slash line vs. LHPs this season.

His 150 wRC+ vs. LHPs ranks 15th in MLB among 151 qualified hitters.

Clement is 1-for-3 against Rogers, so at least he’s seen the guy before. And in his past 13 games overall, Clement is 7-6 vs. this prop with an .834 OPS.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:47 a.m. ET on 09/12/2025.

College football Week 3 parlay predictions: Count on Notre Dame to score in bunches, Pavia’s Vanderbilt to cover

For Week 3 of the college football season, let’s dig into a +350 parlay of NCAAF predictions.

The pregame narrative: After an early bye, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are back at it in another ranked-on-ranked showdown against the Texas A&M Aggies. The Irish have a stellar running game that should lead to plenty of offensive success.

Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 3, featuring a pick on the Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers game.

College football predictions: Week 3 parlay

Parlay: Notre Dame over 27.5 points | LSU -3.5 | Vanderbilt +7.5 (+350)

Notre Dame over 27.5 points (-130): No. 8 Notre Dame didn’t quite get to this number in a 23-13 win over Texas A&M last year, but I’m a big fan of the matchup stylistically for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame loves to run the ball, and there are signs that that could work well against No. 16 Texas A&M.

TAMU allowed 203 rushing yards on 6.4 yards/carry in Week 1 vs. the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA).

Through two games, the Aggies rank 111th out of 134 NCAA Division I schools in EPA per rush, according to Game On Paper.

The Irish have arguably the most enviable backfield in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The tandem rushed for 135 yards on 6.1 YPC against the Aggies last year.

Notre Dame averaged 36.1 PPG in 2024, which ranked 10th in D-I.

Full NCAAF betting markets

NCAAF parlay picks

LSU -4.5 (-182): Florida lost at home last week as an 18-point favourite and now has to go to Death Valley for a night game. Good luck with that.

The Gators beat the Tigers at home last year, but LSU did everything it could to lose that game. LSU doubled up Florida in time of possession, but also fumbled three times and missed a field goal.

Florida quarterback DJ Lagway was only 13-for-26 passing with one touchdown, and if No. 3 LSU can hold him down again, I really like the team’s chances to win.

The Tigers have won five straight games by seven or more points dating back to last year, including a road win over then-No. 4 Clemson in Week 1.

Vanderbilt +6 (-154): If you aren’t a Diego Pavia believer by now, I don’t know what to tell you.

Pavia led the Vanderbilt Commodores to their first bowl win in over a decade last year, collecting some impressive upset wins along the way. They beat then-No. 1 Alabama, along with Kentucky, Auburn and Virginia Tech.

Since the start of last season, Vanderbilt is 6-5 SU as an underdog and 9-2 ATS.

The Commodores have covered a +7.5 line in 11 of their past 14 games.

To cash this bet, Pavia will need to be better against the South Carolina Gamecocks than he was in last year’s matchup (231 total yards, one TD). But I think he can get it done.

Especially because No. 11 South Carolina hasn’t been anything special so far this year.

The Gamecocks beat Virginia Tech, 24-11, in their opener … but the Commodores beat that same Va. Tech squad last week, 44-20.

College football predictions made at 3:10 p.m. on 09/11/2025.

College football Week 3 parlay predictions: Count on Notre Dame to score in bunches, Pavia’s Vanderbilt to cover

After cashing a +318 parlay last week, let’s run it back with some Week 3 college football predictions.

The pregame narrative: After an early bye, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are back at it in another ranked-on-ranked showdown against the Texas A&M Aggies. The Irish have a stellar running game that should lead to plenty of offensive success.

Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 3, featuring a pick on the Florida Gators vs. LSU Tigers game.

College football predictions: Week 3 parlay

Parlay: Notre Dame over 27.5 points | LSU -3.5 | Vanderbilt +7.5 (+333)

Notre Dame over 27.5 points (-125): No. 8 Notre Dame didn’t quite get to this number in a 23-13 win over Texas A&M last year, but I’m a big fan of the matchup stylistically for the Fighting Irish.

Notre Dame loves to run the ball, and there are signs that that could work well against No. 16 Texas A&M.

TAMU allowed 203 rushing yards on 6.4 yards/carry in Week 1 vs. the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA).

Through two games, the Aggies rank 111th out of 134 NCAA Division I schools in EPA per rush, according to Game On Paper.

The Irish have arguably the most enviable backfield in the country with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. The tandem rushed for 135 yards on 6.1 YPC against the Aggies last year.

Notre Dame averaged 36.1 PPG in 2024, which ranked 10th in D-I.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

NCAAF parlay picks

LSU -3.5 (-195): Florida lost at home last week as an 18-point favourite and now has to go to Death Valley for a night game. Good luck with that.

The Gators beat the Tigers at home last year, but LSU did everything it could to lose that game. LSU doubled up Florida in time of possession, but also fumbled three times and missed a field goal.

Florida quarterback DJ Lagway was only 13-for-26 passing with one touchdown, and if No. 3 LSU can hold him down again, I really like the team’s chances to win.

The Tigers have won five straight games by seven or more points dating back to last year, including a road win over then-No. 4 Clemson in Week 1.

Vanderbilt +7.5 (-190): If you aren’t a Diego Pavia believer by now, I don’t know what to tell you.

Pavia led the Vanderbilt Commodores to their first bowl win in over a decade last year, collecting some impressive upset wins along the way. They beat then-No. 1 Alabama, along with Kentucky, Auburn and Virginia Tech.

Since the start of last season, Vanderbilt is 6-5 SU as an underdog and 9-2 ATS.

The Commodores have covered a +7.5 line in 12 of their past 14 games.

To cash this bet, Pavia will need to be better against the South Carolina Gamecocks than he was in last year’s matchup (231 total yards, one TD). But I think he can get it done.

Especially because No. 11 South Carolina hasn’t been anything special so far this year.

The Gamecocks beat Virginia Tech, 24-11, in their opener … but the Commodores beat that same Va. Tech squad last week, 44-20.

College football predictions made at 2:10 p.m. on 09/11/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays SGP predictions Sept. 11: Fade Guerrero, Pena in rubber match at Rogers Centre

A crucial series between the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros is up for grabs on Thursday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Houston split a pair of low-scoring games to begin this series, and now the battle of division leaders goes to a rubber match. Both Kevin Gausman and Cristian Javier have fared well against these respective lineups, which means runs could be at a premium again.

Check out my Astros vs. Blue Jays for Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jeremy Pena.

Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Guerrero under 1.5 baess | Pena under 1.5 bases | Gausman over 4.5 Ks (+300)

Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129): Before yesterday’s 0-for-4 showing, Guerrero had compiled six consecutive multi-hit games. So if you’re questioning this pick, I get it.

But all MLB hitters have peaks and valleys — even elite ones like Guerrero. Prior to his mini-tear, Vladdy had gone 3-for-30 over a nine-game stretch.

All told, he’s gone under his bases prop in nine of his past 15 starts. And I expect more of the same with Javier on the bump.

Guerrero is 0-for-6 with two walks and two strikeouts vs. Javier.

Javier walks a lot of batters, and walks don’t contribute to total bases counts. The right-hander has a 3.57 BB/9 since 2022, which is the 18th-highest among 150 pitchers in that span.

Guerrero has an 89th-percentile walk rate (12.5%), per Baseball Savant, and it’s more likely that the Astros will want to pitch around him with Bo Bichette out of the lineup.

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MLB SGP legs

Pena under 1.5 total bases (-190): Pena has underwhelmed at the plate recently, and combining that with his brutal numbers vs. Gausman, I think this is a worthwhile fade to add to the SGP.

Since Aug. 16, Pena has a .232/.303/.364 slash line, with more strikeouts (24) than hits (23). He’s gone under 1.5 bases in 14 of 23 starts in that span.

Pena is 1-for-11 with six Ks against Gausman.

The shortstop has solid contact quality, evidenced by his 82nd-percentile xBA (.280), but there’s a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. Gausman has clearly taken advantage of that.

Pena has a ninth-percentile chase rate and a 28th-percentile whiff rate.

Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts (-205): Pena is far from the only Houston hitter that Gausman has carved up.

The Astros’ lineup is collectively 18-for-107 (.168) with 50 strikeouts against Toronto’s veteran right-hander.

Gausman has garnered a 42% K rate and a 37.4% whiff rate against this lineup. Those are both miles ahead of the league-average rates (22.0 K%, 25.1 whiff%).

Gausman struck out six when he faced the Astros in April. He’s also 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine outings, averaging 6.4 Ks in that span.

Blue Jays picks as of 8:36 a.m. on 09/11/2025.

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College football Week 3 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on South Florida vs. Miami, Ohio vs. Ohio State

A pair of top-five NCAA Division I programs are featured in this week’s four-pack of college football picks.

The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes host a plucky Ohio Bobcats squad that should push the defending champs a bit. Meanwhile, the No. 17 South Florida Bulls put their impressive start on the line against the No. 5 Miami (FL) Hurricanes.

Check out the best college football Week 3 picks, featuring an over/under pick for the Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. California Golden Bears matchup.

College football picks Week 3

Best bet: South Florida/Miami under 56.5 points (-110)

South Florida has two top-25 upset wins in as many weeks. If the Bulls are going to have a shot at a third one, I think they’ll need to muck things up.

The Bulls were in a rock fight last week in The Swamp, trailing 9-6 at halftime in a battle of field goals before eventually upsetting then-No. 13 Florida, 18-16.

In the week before, South Florida bottled up the Ashton Jeanty-less Boise State Broncos in a 34-7 win.

USF has forced six fumbles and corralled four turnovers through two weeks.

Miami has looked strong with Carson Beck under centre so far, but both of the Hurricanes’ games went under this total.

Both defences rank in the top 50 in the country in EPA per play, according to Game On Paper.

The Hurricanes hung 50 points on the Bulls last year, but that was with Cam Ward under centre.

A lot has changed since then, and USF’s performance against D.J. Lagway and Florida has me bullish — sorry — on the visitors.

Key stat: Unders are 6-1-1 when South Florida is an underdog since the start of last season, per Team Rankings.

Full NCAAF betting markets

No. 1 Buckeyes face in-state Bobcats

Ohio +31.5 (-112): I know Ohio State is the defending national champion — and I might be slightly biased as an Ohio University graduate — but this is a lot of points to give the Bobcats after an encouraging start.

Ohio fell just short of a comeback against Rutgers in Week 1, losing 34-31 as a 15.5-point underdog.

This past Saturday, the Bobcats beat the West Virginia Mountaineers, 17-10, as 3.5-point dogs.

Fifth-year senior quarterback Parker Navarro gives the Bobcats poise and experience under centre. After rushing for 1,046 yards and 18 touchdowns last year, he has accounted for 666 passing/rushing yards and four total TDs through two games.

Remember, he’s putting up those numbers against Power Four programs — not FCS doormats.

Speaking of which, Ohio State did post a 70-0 win last week over Grambling State (FCS). But this week’s pay game should be much, much punchier.

Ohio is 6-2 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

More college football best bets

UAB -11.5 (-110): I faded the UAB Blazers last week, and it didn’t work out. Though they were blanked in the second half, the Blazers were tied with Navy at halftime and comfortably covered a hefty underdog spread.

Now, UAB is rightfully favoured against the truly atrocious Akron Zips.

Akron is still looking for its first points of the season. The team has been outscored 78-0 through two games.

The Zips are 5-11 ATS in non-conference play over the past four seasons. Last year, they lost all three of their D-I non-conference games by 32+ points.

The Blazers at least know how to drum up some offence. Quarterback Jalen Kitna — son of ex-NFL QB Jon Kitna — has thrown for 551 yards and four TDs on 10.0 yards/attempt through two games.

Akron ranks dead last in D-I in net EPA per play.

Full NCAAF betting markets

Minnesota/California over 43 points (-110): It’s time to learn the name Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

The Hawaiian-born QB, who originally committed to Oregon, was the No. 7 quarterback in 247 Sports’ class of 2025. He’s been solid through two games, throwing for 493 yards and three TDs while adding a score on the ground.

Cal scored 34 and 35 points, respectively, in its first two games. I think Sagapolutele can help the Golden Bears contribute to this low total.

Then there’s Minnesota, a team that put up 59 points in the first half last week before calling off the dogs. Sure, that was against Northwestern State (FCS), but it’s an exciting stat line for P.J. Fleck’s crew.

Minnesota’s offence ranks 27th in success rate and 29th in EPA/play.

College football picks made at 2 p.m. on 09/09/2025.

Commanders vs. Packers Week 2 Thursday Night Football picks: Take Green Bay to cover, Doubs to make his mark

A pair of NFC contenders kick off Week 2 on Thursday Night Football, as the Green Bay Packers host the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Green Bay earned a statement win over the Detroit Lions in Week 1, while the Washington Commanders made quick work of the New York Giants. In this short-week showdown at Lambeau Field, the Packers are 3.5-point favourites.

Check out my Commanders vs. Packers picks for the TNF matchup on Sept. 11, featuring prop bets on Romeo Doubs and Deebo Samuel.

Commanders vs. Packers picks

Best bet: Doubs over 41.5 receiving yards (-118)

On a short week, the healthiest Packers receiver seems to be Doubs.

Green Bay didn’t practice on Monday, but a trio of wideouts popped up on the injury report estimate: Matthew Golden (ankle, limited), Dontayvion Wicks (calf, limited) and Jayden Reed (foot, did not participate).

It’s nice to see that Doubs, who battled concussion issues a season ago, came out of Week 1 with a clean bill of health.

In an offence believed to have a lot of WR2/3 options, Doubs has the best chance early in the season to achieve WR1 status.

He had a 71% snap share in Week 1, per Football Guys. No other receiver was above 48%.

Last week, Doubs had 92 of the 196 air yards (46.9%) obtained by Green Bay’s WR corps.

Golden, Wicks and/or Reed could all come off the injury report before Thursday, but it’s worth noting that Doubs seems to have a leg up on the rest of the WR room in terms of health.

And though the Packers had a quiet day in the passing game against the Lions, Doubs led the way with a pair of catches for 68 yards on four targets.

Until Golden’s ascent as his rookie year progresses, I expect a healthy Doubs to be the lead dog of this group. With that in mind, 40 yards doesn’t seem like much of an ask.

Key stat: Doubs averaged 46.2 yards/game in 13 regular-season games last year.

Thursday Night Football ATS pick

Packers -3.5 (-106): I hate the hook here, but I love what I saw out of the Packers in Week 1 against a Detroit Lions team that went 15-2 last year.

Green Bay built up a 27-6 lead before allowing a garbage-time touchdown in the final minute. Either way, it was a comfortable win as a -1.5 favourite over the NFC’s reigning No. 1 seed.

The Packers held the Lions to a feeble 3.8 yards per play — 29th in the NFL — in Micah Parsons’ debut.

Parsons only played 30 of a possible 67 snaps and should continue to ramp up following a soap-operatic offseason (he averaged 81.6% of snaps for the Cowboys last year).

In fairness, the Commanders handled business in Week 1 as well, but that was against the lowly New York Giants. A primetime date at Lambeau will be a much tougher task.

Since the start of last season, the Packers rank fifth in defensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com.

In the same span, Green Bay ranks eighth in offensive EPA per rush, and Washington is 29th in defensive EPA per rush.

Back Deebo after Washington debut

Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-118): Not to be over-reactionary off one game, but Samuel was highly involved in his Commanders’ debut, and I’d like to buy in.

The ex-49er had a team-high 10 targets, turning that into seven catches for 77 yards. He added one rush for 19 yards, too.

Green Bay did a great job preventing explosive plays in Week 1, and if that holds true on Thursday, Samuel should be the beneficiary of some underneath looks.

According to Fantasy Pros, Samuel averaged 5.4 yards before catch per reception. He should be a viable safety valve for Jayden Daniels if Parsons and Co. are close to getting home.

Commanders vs. Packers picks made at 3:03 p.m. ET 09/09/2025.