Jordan Horrobin

For the second time in as many weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers face an AFC West foe in prime time.

The pregame narrative: Justin Herbert looked great in L.A.’s season-opening win, and he should be able to keep that momentum rolling into a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. On the home team’s side, I’m looking to fade Ashton Jeanty as a receiver.

Check out my Chargers vs. Raiders picks for Monday Night Football Week 2 on Sept. 15.

Chargers vs. Raiders picks

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Best Bet: Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs (-118)

The Chargers were a notably run-heavy team last year. They ranked 10th in the NFL in run play percentage (44.91%).

L.A. sure didn’t look like a run-heavy team in Week 1, though, as Herbert aired it out for 318 yards and three touchdowns on 34 attempts.

In the run game, rookie Omarion Hampton led the way with 15 of the team’s 25 carries.

Maybe Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh doesn’t want to put too much on the plate of his rookie running back in the early stages of the season. And either way, one game certainly doesn’t make a trend.

But I liked the volume (and production) put forth by Herbert in the season opener. Hopefully, there’s more of that to come.

Las Vegas was tougher last year against the run than against the pass, which is another reason to like Herbert’s opportunity.

According to RBSDM.com, the Raiders’ defence ranked 18th in dropback success rate and seventh in rushing success rate.

Also, when Herbert played in Las Vegas last season, he threw for 346 yards and two TDs.

Key stat: Herbert has averaged exactly 2.0 passing TDs in nine career starts against the Raiders.

More Monday Night Football picks

Chargers -3 (-138): Both the Chargers and Raiders covered and won as underdogs in Week 1. But L.A.’s win was more impressive in my book.

The Chargers beat the reigning AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs on a neutral field in Brazil. The Raiders, meanwhile, beat a New England Patriots team that won just four games last season.

Herbert has solid career numbers vs. the Raiders, with a 101.4 passer rating, 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions in nine games.

With Herbert under centre, the Chargers have covered a -3 spread in five of nine games vs. the Raiders (and pushed once).

The Chargers covered as favourites in both matchups against the Raiders last year, winning by a combined score of 66-30.

Jeanty under 17.5 receiving yards (-118): Brock Bowers missed practice on Thursday and Friday, which puts him at serious risk of missing Monday’s game. That could mean more opportunities in the passing game for Jeanty, but I’m not interested at this number.

• In Week 1, Jeanty caught both of his targets for just two total receiving yards.

• Elsewhere, the Chargers held New England’s running backs to a combined 13 receiving yards (four catches, six targets).

Jeanty led NCAA Division I in carries (374) and rushing yards (2,601) last year. But he wasn’t particularly involved as a receiver.

In 14 games for Boise State, Jeanty had just 23 catches for 138 yards (9.9 YPG). He went under this prop total in 11 of 14 matchups.

Chargers vs. Raiders picks made at 4:11 p.m. ET 09/13/2025.

In the first half of a Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Houston to face the Texans.

The pregame narrative: Houston’s offence looked miserable in Los Angeles last week, but C.J. Stroud is a different beast inside his home stadium. Still, the Texans are questionable favourites against the four-time reigning NFC South champions.

Check out my Buccaneers vs. Texans picks for Monday Night Football Week 2 on Sept. 15, featuring prop bets on Stroud and Emeka Egbuka.

Buccaneers vs. Texans picks

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Best Bet: Egbuka over 52.5 receiving yards (-118)

Egbuka’s NFL debut went off without a hitch.

Thrust into a starting role due to injuries in the Bucs’ receiving room (Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan), Egbuka excelled in Week 1. He finished with four catches on six targets for 67 yards and two touchdowns.

It’s quite possible the 2025 first-round draftee would’ve earned a starting job even if Tampa’s full WR room was healthy. Either way, he wasted no time showing that he belongs.

Egbuka led Tampa receivers in snap percentage (93.1%), according to FootballGuys.com and participated in every route.

It sure looks like Egbuka is locked in as a top-two receiver for Tampa Bay, which makes this a very attainable yardage total.

The Texans ranked sixth in total defence last year and could make things tough on the Bucs at times. But given that Egbuka is the primary slot receiver, he could be the beneficiary of some additional underneath looks.

Key stat: Last week, the Texans allowed 50+ receiving yards to the Rams’ two primary receivers (Puka Nacua, Davante Adams).

More Monday Night Football picks

Buccaneers +3 (-130): The Bucs should be live dogs in prime time, which makes me really like them with a few points.

• Tampa is 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

• In the same span, Houston is 4-5-2 ATS as a favourite.

Stroud had the game of his NFL life against Tampa Bay when these teams last met in 2023. He threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns … and the Bucs still covered a +2.5 spread in a 39-37 win for the Texans.

Houston only scored nine points in a season-opening loss to the Rams last week. I need to see more before I can lay points with this team against an expectant playoff squad.

Stroud over 234.5 passing yards (-118): Speaking of Stroud, I’ve become a big fan of backing him at home and fading him on the road.

And his early-career numbers back that up:

• Home (16 starts): 281.4 yards/game, 65.0% completion rate, 99.0 passer rating

• Road (17 starts): 207.1 yards/game, 62.3% completion rate, 86.9 passer rating

Including the postseason, Stroud has gone over 228.5 passing yards in 13 of 18 starts. And again, he dominated the Bucs a couple of seasons ago at home.

From the friendly confines of NRG Stadium, I expect a bounce-back effort from Stroud.

Buccaneers vs. Texans picks made at 3:31 p.m. ET 09/13/2025.

The Minnesota Vikings are back in prime time as they host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football in Week 2.

The pregame narrative: Justin Jefferson played a key role in Minnesota’s comeback win last Monday, and he should be heavily involved for the Vikes in their home opener. These teams played in a shootout last year, with Minnesota earning a 42-21 win.

Check out my Falcons vs. Vikings picks for the Week 2 Sunday Night Football matchup on Sept. 14.

Falcons vs. Vikings picks

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Best bet: Jefferson over 74.5 receiving yards (-118)

Jefferson’s first game with new quarterback J.J. McCarthy got off to a slow start. Like, really slow.

In the first half of the Vikings’ season opener, Jefferson had just two targets and four receiving yards.

For a guy who averaged 10.0 targets and 100.4 yards per game over the previous three seasons, that’s just not going to cut it.

But the veteran wideout stayed patient and positive with the inexperienced McCarthy, and eventually they clicked. In the second half, Jefferson caught three of five targets for 40 yards and a touchdown.

This video, clipped from the Vikings’ YouTube page, shows the level of communication McCarthy and his WR1 had throughout the game:

Jefferson’s uptick in target volume and production in the second half is something I expect to carry forward. He’s too dangerous to be kept quiet for long.

• Also, on a rate basis, there was nothing concerning about Jefferson’s involvement. He had a 35.0% target share, which exceeded his sky-high share last season (29.9%, third in the NFL, per Hashtag Football).

• With Sam Darnold under centre last year, Jefferson torched the Falcons for 132 yards and two TDs.

I’m not suggesting he’ll repeat those results, but a 70-yard milestone is easily within reach for arguably the best receiver in the NFL.

Key stat: Jefferson is averaging 95.8 yards/game in his career, which is an NFL record. His lowest single-season average entering this year was 87.5 yards/game.

Sunday Night Football over/under pick

Over 44.5 points (-110): After some frustrations and miscues earlier on, Minnesota scored 21 fourth-quarter points in its opener to complete a comeback win on the road — and cash the over.

I’m a Kevin O’Connell believer, and I expect he’ll have the McCarthy-led offence ready from the jump in Week 2.

In addition to an all-world receiver in Jefferson, the Vikings have an enviable backfield tandem (Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason) that combined for 142 scrimmage yards and a TD in Week 1.

On Atlanta’s side, neither Drake London nor Darnell Mooney carries injury designations into this matchup. Mooney missed Atlanta’s opener, so it’ll be nice for the team’s top two receivers to be in the mix.

When these teams met last December, they combined for 63 points and 929 yards.

Both quarterbacks are different, mind you, but I don’t know that either one is a downgrade — at least not to the extent that I expect a 19-point cutback in total points.

Over Minnesota’s final six home games last season, the average total was 49.3 points.

Falcons vs. Vikings picks made at 4:10 p.m. ET 09/12/2025.