Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.
If you’re in the market for Super Bowl 60 TD picks with odds of +200 or longer, you’re in the right place.
The pregame narrative: Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are both odds-on TD options, but I’m looking further down the odds board. Given how stout the Seattle Seahawks have been against the run, I like the value on tight end Hunter Henry to find the end zone for the New England Patriots.
Check out my top Super Bowl 60 TD picks, featuring a prediction on Seattle wide receiver Rashid Shaheed for the game on Feb. 8, 2026.
Henry has been awfully quiet in the Patriots’ past two matchups, but I’m not holding that against him.
A pair of games doesn’t wipe out a season’s worth of production for Henry.
The veteran tight end has been New England’s primary red zone look for the bulk of the year. He tallied 13 receptions on 21 targets inside the 20-yard line during the regular season.
For context, the next closest pass-catcher in either category was Stefon Diggs (seven catches on 12 targets).
So, yes, Henry only had three catches combined in his two previous games. But a +225 price tag on New England’s clear No. 1 red zone target? Sign me up.
It’s tough to break through against Seattle’s No. 1 scoring defence, but tight ends did a fair amount of damage against them this year.
In the regular season, Seattle was one of seven teams to allow 100+ catches and 1,000+ yards to opposing TEs.
Key stat: Prior to his two-game funk, Henry had a four-game stretch in which he caught 17 passes and went 3-1 vs. this prop.
Shaheed to score (+333): Shaheed is a live wire of a player, and he’s generated a splash play in both of the Seahawks’ playoff games.
In the divisional round, Shaheed took the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown against the 49ers to kickstart the blowout.
Then, in the NFC championship, the speedy receiver connected with Sam Darnold for a 51-yard completion against the Rams. He was inches from breaking free for a touchdown, getting tripped up by the trailing defender.
Shaheed is a home run hitter on the gridiron; he’s always a threat to bust a huge play.
And as Seattle’s primary kick returner and punt returner — in addition to being a deep-threat wideout — there are a few ways for him to run into one.
The Patriots need to sort out how to slow down Cooper Kupp in short-yardage routes and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all over the place. I’ll take a flier on Shaheed taking the top off at some point.
Super Bowl 60 TD picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Jan. 29, 2026.
If you’re in the market for Super Bowl 60 TD picks with odds longer than +200, you’re in the right place.
The pregame narrative: Kenneth Walker and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are both odds-on TD options, but I’m looking further down the odds board. Given how stout the Seattle Seahawks have been against the run, I like the value on tight end Hunter Henry to find the end zone for the New England Patriots.
Check out my top Super Bowl 60 TD picks, featuring a prediction on Seattle wide receiver Rashid Shaheed for the game on Feb. 8, 2026.
Henry has been awfully quiet in the Patriots’ past two matchups, but I’m not holding that against him.
A pair of games doesn’t wipe out a season’s worth of production for Henry.
The veteran tight end has been New England’s primary red zone look for the bulk of the year. He tallied 13 receptions on 21 targets inside the 20-yard line during the regular season.
For context, the next closest pass-catcher in either category was Stefon Diggs (seven catches on 12 targets).
So, yes, Henry only had three catches combined in his two previous games. But a +225 price tag on New England’s clear No. 1 red zone target? Sign me up.
It’s tough to break through against Seattle’s No. 1 scoring defence, but tight ends did a fair amount of damage against them this year.
In the regular season, Seattle was one of seven teams to allow 100+ catches and 1,000+ yards to opposing TEs.
Key stat: Prior to his two-game funk, Henry had a four-game stretch in which he caught 17 passes and went 3-1 vs. this prop.
Shaheed to score (+340): Shaheed is a live wire of a player, and he’s generated a splash play in both of the Seahawks’ playoff games.
In the divisional round, Shaheed took the opening kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown against the 49ers to kickstart the blowout.
Then, in the NFC championship, the speedy receiver connected with Sam Darnold for a 51-yard completion against the Rams. He was inches from breaking free for a touchdown, getting tripped up by the trailing defender.
Shaheed is a home run hitter on the gridiron; he’s always a threat to bust a huge play.
And as Seattle’s primary kick returner and punt returner — in addition to being a deep-threat wideout — there are a few ways for him to run into one.
The Patriots need to sort out how to slow down Cooper Kupp in short-yardage routes and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all over the place. I’ll take a flier on Shaheed taking the top off at some point.
Super Bowl 60 TD picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Jan. 29, 2026.
The NBA is saving arguably its best matchup for last tonight, as the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The pregame narrative: Minnesota played last night in Dallas, which helps explain why the home team is a 7-point underdog against OKC. I’m locked in on some star power in this matchup, with a +400 SGP that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.
Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Jan. 29.
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-180): It’s still a bit flippant to say you can pencil in 30 points for Gilgeous-Alexander on a nightly basis … but that’s not a gross exaggeration.
The NBA’s reigning scoring champ (and MVP) is averaging 32.0 points this season, on track for a fourth straight year of 30.0+ PPG.
He has 30+ points in 32 of 46 games this season.
SGA diced up the Timberwolves in both previous matchups this season: 40 points (12-of-19 shooting) on Nov. 26, followed by 35 points (12-of-26 shooting) on Dec. 19.
The Canadian superstar has the highest scoring floor in the league. He has at least 20 points in 118 straight games, which is eight shy of Wilt Chamberlain’s record (set in 1963).
I almost prefer when SGA is facing a quality opponent like Minnesota. Although the T-wolves’ defence will push him, that means he has a greater chance of playing a full workload and putting up enough shots for this bet to cash.
Edwards 25+ points (-148): This is a very interesting price for a guy who’s averaging 29.4 PPG. It says a lot about the respect that OKC’s defence has earned.
But Edwards has faced the Thunder’s superb defence (No. 1 in net rating, points allowed, and opponent FG%) twice this year. And he cashed this bet both times.
Nov. 26: 31 points on 9-of-19 shooting (5-for-10 from 3-point range)
Dec. 19: 26 points on 9-of-20 shooting (3-for-6 from 3-point range)
Edwards is averaging 30.2 points over his past 12 games and is 9-3 vs. this milestone prop in that span. Look for him to put on a show at home with the defending champs in town.
Under 231.5 points(-195): Without this leg, the SGP’s odds are shorter than +200. It’s the negative correlation that really drives this thing home.
But given that two of the NBA’s best defences are on the court in Minneapolis tonight, I really do expect a fairly low-scoring game.
OKC’s high-level defensive accolades are listed above. As for Minnesota, the team ranks in the top five in both defensive rating and opponent FG%.
Unders are 17-7-0 when the Timberwolves are at home this season. Oh, and both head-to-head matchups between these teams finished with fewer than 220 total points.
Still, despite having played a pair of grind-it-out games already this season, Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards scored 30+ and 25+ points, respectively, both times.
It’s quite possible for the stars to get their share of looks without it turning into a track meet.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.
Jamal Murray and the shorthanded Denver Nuggets host the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night, and I’ve got a pair of player props worth targeting.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Murray torched the Nets back on Jan. 4, and he should be counted on to put up some big-time numbers again. On the other side, ex-Nugget Michael Porter Jr. is thriving as the primary scorer on a bad team.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 29, featuring a pick on Chicago Bulls point guard Coby White.
On any given night, Murray can go off as a scorer or a passer. He has 13 games this season with 30+ points, along with 11 games of 10+ assists.
When he faced the Nets earlier this month, the Kitchener, Ontario native had everything working. Despite taking a 12-point loss, Murray finished with game-high totals in points (27) and assists (16).
Murray has been a key cog in Denver’s machine for a long time, but he’s particularly crucial right now. Nikola Jokic, the three-time MVP who leads the team in points, rebounds and assists, has been out all month with a knee injury.
And Aaron Gordon, who’s third on the Nuggets in points and fourth in assists, is slated to miss tonight’s game as well.
The Nets rank 26th in defensive rating, and they’re allowing the sixth-most assists per game. Murray is accustomed to a minutes workload in the mid-30s, which comes with ample stat-stuffing opportunities.
Going all the way back to Dec. 3, Murray is 14-9 vs. this prop (60.9%) while averaging 36.0 PA. And his numbers stand out even more than that.
Key stat: In 11 games without Jokic this season, Murray has averaged 36.3 PA and is 7-4 vs. this line (63.6%).
Porter over 25.5 points (-110): Revenge game narratives can often get stretched too thin, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Porter was feeling some ill will toward his ex-employer.
After all, the Nuggets shipped him off to the lowly Nets this offseason, immediately extinguishing his chances of competing for a title.
But the move also freed up MPJ to take a boatload of shots, and he has happily obliged.
The former lottery pick, now in his seventh season, has taken more shots (18.6/game) and more 3s (9.4/game) than ever before. Naturally, that has led to a career-high scoring average (25.2 PPG).
For two weeks between the end of the conference championship round and the Super Bowl kick-off, there’s tons of time for information overload.
Super Bowl 60, featuring the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, is sure to be exciting. So it makes sense for some fans and bettors to want every morsel of data they can find.
Consider this Super Bowl 60 preview a one-stop shop for the most important betting trends, player prop insights and more ahead of the biggest Sunday on the NFL calendar.
After four-win seasons in back-to-back years, the Patriots are rather surprising participants in the Super Bowl.
Some level of improvement was expected, with Drake Maye ascending in Year 2 and the easiest schedule in the NFL (as measured by Pro Football Reference, Warren Sharp and ESPN’s Football Power Index).
But winning the AFC? That seemed awfully far-fetched in a conference with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Credit the Patriots for steamrolling the competition. They had the AFC’s best regular-season point differential (+170) and allowed only 26 points in three playoff games,
Not to be outdone, the NFC’s top-seeded Seattle Seahawks posted a +191 point differential in the regular season. And their offence exploded for 72 points in just two postseason matchups.
New England has an MVP-calibre quarterback, while Seattle has better offensive weapons. On defence, the Seahawks have more high-end talent, but both sides rank in the top 10 in points and yards.
As the odds indicate, Seattle has the edge. But there’s a lot to like on both sides.
Patriots vs. Seahawks ATS and O/U betting notes
SEAHAWKS ATS: 14-5-0 O/U: 11-8-0
Their 73.7% ATS success rate ranks No. 1 in the NFL.
Overs are 10-6 when the Seahawks are favoured.
Sam Darnold is 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) in his career when favoured by 4+ points, according to Action Network.
Seattle is on a nine-game winning streak — and a four-game ATS winning streak — entering the Super Bowl.
In two seasons under head coach Mike McDonald, the Seahawks have played 10 games against under-25 quarterbacks. Those QBs are 1-9 SU with a 7:12 TD-to-INT ratio.
Their 70.0% ATS success rate ranks No. 2 in the NFL.
Overs are 4-2 when the Patriots are underdogs.
New England is 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) this season when trailing by at least seven points at some moment in the game. Over the three previous seasons, the team had been an NFL-worst 3-29 SU (5-26-1 ATS) in that spot.
The Patriots are 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) in their past six games.
New England hasn’t trailed at halftime since Week 3 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Super Bowl 60 preview: Is Drake Maye OK?
Maye put together an MVP-calibre season, leading the NFL in passer rating (113.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and completion rate (72.0%). New England couldn’t have asked for more out of its second-year QB.
Things have been different — and by that I mean uglier — in the playoffs, though:
84.0 passer rating
6.9 yards/pass attempt
55.8% completion rate
Pressure and inexperience are factors here, but let’s be fair to 2024’s third-overall pick. He just faced three top-five total defences and lived to tell the tale.
No quarterback had ever previously won three games vs. top-five total defences in the same postseason.
And though Maye’s air attack has been largely grounded, he’s finding other ways to shine. He has 24 carries for 141 yards and a touchdown with his legs, surpassing the 60-yard mark twice.
Seahawks Super Bowl storyline: Kenneth Walker is on the rise
Walker has done some of his very best work at the most critical juncture of the season, and he’ll be an X-factor for the Seahawks’ offence in the Super Bowl.
Walker was dancing all over the field in the NFC title game, turning 23 touches into 111 yards and a touchdown. On one jump cut, he put a Rams linebacker on skates.
If a non-quarterback is going to win Super Bowl MVP for the Seahawks, it’ll likely be Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who had an epic NFC title showing, with 10 catches for 153 yards and a TD). But you can’t sleep on Walker.
With Zach Charbonnet out, Walker largely has the Seattle backfield to himself. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per touch in his past five games and deserves a bell cow’s workload.
Player (Team)
Super Bowl 60 MVP odds
Sam Darnold (Seahawks)
+120
Drake Maye (Patriots)
+220
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)
+475
Kenneth Walker (Seahawks)
+650
Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks)
+3,000
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)
+3,300
Stefon Diggs (Patriots)
+4,000
Marcus Jones (Patriots)
+5,000
Super Bowl MVP odds as of Jan. 28, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Smith-Njigba has 90+ receiving yards in 14 of 19 games this season.
Walker has five TDs over his past five games and is averaging 122.0 scrimmage yards per game in that span.
Cooper Kupp only had 4+ catches once in his final 11 regular-season games. But he has 4+ catches in both playoff games for Seattle.
Kayshon Boutte is the only New England wide receiver with 60+ receiving yards in a game this postseason. He had 66 yards in the wild-card round and 75 yards in the divisional round.
Rhamondre Stevenson failed to catch either of his targets in the AFC championship. But in seven games before that, he averaged 3.4 targets, 3.1 receptions and 36.7 yards.
Stevenson is averaging 64.7 rush yards/game in the postseason. TreVeyon Henderson, meanwhile, only has 57 total rush yards in three games.
Henderson’s three rush attempts in the AFC championship marked his fewest since Week 7.
A trio of under-24 hoopers have my attention for Wednesday’s NBA prop picks, headlined by Kon Knueppel.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Though his scoring volume is down a bit lately, Knueppel is adding value as a rebounder. I’m backing him on the glass at plus-money odds tonight and looking for Golden State’s Moses Moody to stay blazing hot from 3-point range.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 28, featuring a pick on Orlando Magic point guard Anthony Black.
Knueppel is my favourite rookie in the 2025-26 class, and I’ve backed him several times this season on scoring props.
I’m going in a different direction tonight, though, for the sake of some plus-money odds.
The small forward is averaging exactly 5.5 rebounds this year. But that number has been trending way up in recent weeks.
In January, Knueppel is averaging 6.4 RPG. And he has 10+ rebounds in three of his past six games — something he’d done just twice all season previously.
Neither of Charlotte’s centres averages north of 25 minutes, which means other players have opportunities to chip in on the glass.
Knueppel, listed at 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, is one of the guys stepping up.
NBA.com’s tracking data backs up that claim, as evidenced by the rebound chances stat. That tracks how many times someone is the closest player to the ball between “when the ball has crossed below the rim to when it is fully rebounded.”
This month, Knueppel has averaged 12.1 rebound chances. Among 47 players averaging at least 10.0 rebound chances this month, 38 are averaging at least 6.0 rebounds.
As the cherry on top, Kneuppel’s opponents tonight — the Memphis Grizzlies — are allowing the second-most rebounds to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Knueppel is 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven games, averaging 7.9 RPG in that span.
Best NBA picks
Black over 1.5 threes (-154): The price has a lot of juice, but this line is worth buying in on if you can stomach it.
Since Dec. 22, Black is 13-4 vs. this prop, averaging 2.5 makes on 6.3 attempts (40.2%).
He’s 6-1 vs. this prop in his past seven games.
The 3-point shot volume has been healthy, with Black firing 5+ attempted 3s in nine of 11 games this month.
Black will face the Miami Heat, who allow the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the NBA.
The point guard is hot on the perimeter, so I’m feeling good about this milestone as long as the shot volume remains steady (and it should).
NBA player prop predictions
Moody over 2.5 threes (-106): The Golden State Warriors are 9.5-point road favourites tonight in a dream matchup. They’re facing a Utah Jazz team that just lost by a dozen last night.
Utah is allowing the most 3s, 3-point attempts and total points per game this season. Golden State should dominate, allowing vets like Steph Curry and Draymond Green — both of whom are “probable” on the injury report — to play reduced roles.
For two weeks between the end of the conference championship round and the Super Bowl kick-off, there’s tons of time for information overload.
Super Bowl 60, featuring the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, is sure to be exciting. So it makes sense for some fans and bettors to want every morsel of data they can find.
Consider this Super Bowl 60 preview a one-stop shop for the most important betting trends, player prop insights and more ahead of the biggest Sunday on the NFL calendar.
After four-win seasons in back-to-back years, the Patriots are rather surprising participants in the Super Bowl.
Some level of improvement was expected, with Drake Maye ascending in Year 2 and the easiest schedule in the NFL (as measured by Pro Football Reference, Warren Sharp and ESPN’s Football Power Index).
But winning the AFC? That seemed awfully far-fetched in a conference with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.
Credit the Patriots for steamrolling the competition. They had the AFC’s best regular-season point differential (+170) and allowed only 26 points in three playoff games,
Not to be outdone, the NFC’s top-seeded Seattle Seahawks posted a +191 point differential in the regular season. And their offence exploded for 72 points in just two postseason matchups.
New England has an MVP-calibre quarterback, while Seattle has better offensive weapons. On defence, the Seahawks have more high-end talent, but both sides rank in the top 10 in points and yards.
As the odds indicate, Seattle has the edge. But there’s a lot to like on both sides.
Patriots vs. Seahawks ATS and O/U betting notes
SEAHAWKS ATS: 14-5-0 O/U: 11-8-0
Their 73.7% ATS success rate ranks No. 1 in the NFL.
Overs are 10-6 when the Seahawks are favoured.
Sam Darnold is 15-1 SU (11-5 ATS) in his career when favoured by 4+ points, according to Action Network.
Seattle is on a nine-game winning streak — and a four-game ATS winning streak — entering the Super Bowl.
In two seasons under head coach Mike McDonald, the Seahawks have played 10 games against under-25 quarterbacks. Those QBs are 1-9 SU with a 7:12 TD-to-INT ratio.
Their 70.0% ATS success rate ranks No. 2 in the NFL.
Overs are 4-2 when the Patriots are underdogs.
New England is 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) this season when trailing by at least seven points at some moment in the game. Over the three previous seasons, the team had been an NFL-worst 3-29 SU (5-26-1 ATS) in that spot.
The Patriots are 6-0 SU (5-1 ATS) in their past six games.
New England hasn’t trailed at halftime since Week 3 vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Super Bowl 60 preview: Is Drake Maye OK?
Maye put together an MVP-calibre season, leading the NFL in passer rating (113.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and completion rate (72.0%). New England couldn’t have asked for more out of its second-year QB.
Things have been different — and by that I mean uglier — in the playoffs, though:
84.0 passer rating
6.9 yards/pass attempt
55.8% completion rate
Pressure and inexperience are factors here, but let’s be fair to 2024’s third-overall pick. He just faced three top-five total defences and lived to tell the tale.
No quarterback had ever previously won three games vs. top-five total defences in the same postseason.
And though Maye’s air attack has been largely grounded, he’s finding other ways to shine. He has 24 carries for 141 yards and a touchdown with his legs, surpassing the 60-yard mark twice.
Seahawks Super Bowl storyline: Kenneth Walker is on the rise
Walker has done some of his very best work at the most critical juncture of the season, and he’ll be an X-factor for the Seahawks’ offence in the Super Bowl.
Walker was dancing all over the field in the NFC title game, turning 23 touches into 111 yards and a touchdown. On one jump cut, he put a Rams linebacker on skates.
If a non-quarterback is going to win Super Bowl MVP for the Seahawks, it’ll likely be Jaxon Smith-Njigba (who had an epic NFC title showing, with 10 catches for 153 yards and a TD). But you can’t sleep on Walker.
With Zach Charbonnet out, Walker largely has the Seattle backfield to himself. He’s averaging 6.4 yards per touch in his past five games and deserves a bell cow’s workload.
Player (Team)
Super Bowl 60 MVP odds
Sam Darnold (Seahawks)
+125
Drake Maye (Patriots)
+215
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)
+500
Kenneth Walker (Seahawks)
+650
Rashid Shaheed (Seahawks)
+2,500
Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)
+2,800
Stefon Diggs (Patriots)
+5,000
TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)
+7,500
Super Bowl MVP odds as of Jan. 28, 2026 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Smith-Njigba has 90+ receiving yards in 14 of 19 games this season.
Walker has five TDs over his past five games and is averaging 122.0 scrimmage yards per game in that span.
Cooper Kupp only had 4+ catches once in his final 11 regular-season games. But he has 4+ catches in both playoff games for Seattle.
Kayshon Boutte is the only New England wide receiver with 60+ receiving yards in a game this postseason. He had 66 yards in the wild-card round and 75 yards in the divisional round.
Rhamondre Stevenson failed to catch either of his targets in the AFC championship. But in seven games before that, he averaged 3.4 targets, 3.1 receptions and 36.7 yards.
Stevenson is averaging 64.7 rush yards/game in the postseason. TreVeyon Henderson, meanwhile, only has 57 total rush yards in three games.
Henderson’s three rush attempts in the AFC championship marked his fewest since Week 7.
There’s a compelling, all-Texas tussle on Wednesday night in Houston, where the Rockets host the San Antonio Spurs.
The pregame narrative: Houston and San Antonio have split their season series thus far, with both teams winning on home court. The Rockets are slight favourites tonight, and I’m backing them on the moneyline in this +335 same-game parlay.
Check out my Spurs vs. Rockets SGP predictions for Jan. 28, featuring prop bets on Victor Wembanyama and Alperen Sengun.
Parlay: Rockets ML | Wembanyama under 23.5 points | Sengun 15+ rebounds/assists (+335)
Rockets moneyline (-143): Less than three weeks ago, the Rockets had one of the worst NBA losses of the season. As 14.5-point favourites in Sacramento, with no load management absences, they lost by 13.
I’m not going to try to excuse that away, but I do want to credit Houston for what it’s accomplished more recently.
The Rockets are 5-1 in their past six games, with wins (SU and ATS) against the Spurs, Timberwolves and Pistons in that span.
Houston’s 111-106 win over San Antonio came at home, and I’m happy to back the Rockets at Toyota Center again tonight. The Rockets are 16-3 at home with a +8.6 net rating (fourth in the NBA).
The Spurs just lost by nine as 11.5-point favourites in New Orleans, and this will be a tough venue to bounce back in.
Wemby has played nine career games against the Rockets now, and the results for the superstar are rough: 17.0 PPG, 42.0 FG%, 18.4 3PT%. This under is 8-1.
In his past 10 games overall, this under is 6-4. The tough defensive matchup tonight really drives home the point that Wemby is worth fading.
Sengun 15+ rebounds/assists (-148): With a 7-foot-4 giant roving the court for the Spurs, it might seem like Sengun would struggle to hit this mark. But that hasn’t been the case.
Sengun cashed this milestone prop in both matchups vs. San Antonio this season. That includes posting 13 rebounds and nine assists against the Spurs just last week.
The Turkish centre is 23-14 vs. this milestone on the season, averaging 9.0 rebounds and 6.4 assists.
San Antonio is actually a plus matchup for this prop, given that the team allows the most assists per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.
Spurs vs. Rockets predictions made at 11:50 a.m. on Jan. 28, 2026.
A trio of under-24 hoopers have my attention for Wednesday’s NBA prop picks, headlined by Kon Knueppel.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Though his scoring volume is down a bit lately, Knueppel is adding value as a rebounder. I’m backing him on the glass at plus-money odds tonight and looking for Golden State’s Moses Moody to stay blazing hot from 3-point range.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 28, featuring a pick on Orlando Magic point guard Anthony Black.
Knueppel is my favourite rookie in the 2025-26 class, and I’ve backed him several times this season on scoring props.
I’m going in a different direction tonight, though, for the sake of some plus-money odds.
The small forward is averaging exactly 5.5 rebounds this year. But that number has been trending way up in recent weeks.
In January, Knueppel is averaging 6.4 RPG. And he has 10+ rebounds in three of his past six games — something he’d done just twice all season previously.
Neither of Charlotte’s centres averages north of 25 minutes, which means other players have opportunities to chip in on the glass.
Knueppel, listed at 6-foot-6 and 215 pounds, is one of the guys stepping up.
NBA.com’s tracking data backs up that claim, as evidenced by the rebound chances stat. That tracks how many times someone is the closest player to the ball between “when the ball has crossed below the rim to when it is fully rebounded.”
This month, Knueppel has averaged 12.1 rebound chances. Among 47 players averaging at least 10.0 rebound chances this month, 38 are averaging at least 6.0 rebounds.
As the cherry on top, Kneuppel’s opponents tonight — the Memphis Grizzlies — are allowing the second-most rebounds to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Knueppel is 5-2 vs. this prop in his past seven games, averaging 7.9 RPG in that span.
Black will face the Miami Heat, who allow the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the NBA.
The point guard is hot on the perimeter, so I’m feeling good about this milestone as long as the shot volume remains steady (and it should).
NBA player prop predictions
Moody over 2.5 threes (-124): The Golden State Warriors are 9.5-point road favourites tonight in a dream matchup. They’re facing a Utah Jazz team that just lost by a dozen last night.
Utah is allowing the most 3s, 3-point attempts and total points per game this season. Golden State should dominate, allowing vets like Steph Curry and Draymond Green — both of whom are “probable” on the injury report — to play reduced roles.
The red-hot Los Angeles Clippers look to continue rolling on Tuesday night against the Utah Jazz, who expect to have their best player back in the mix.
The pregame narrative: Lauri Markkanen has missed most of January but should be back on the court tonight. He’ll have to deal with an L.A. squad that is 12-3 in its past 15 games.
Check out my same-game parlay Clippers vs. Jazz picks, featuring prop bets on James Harden and Ace Bailey.
SGP: Jazz +14.5 | Bailey under 12.5 points | Harden 8+ assists (+335)
Jazz +14.5 points (-275): Look, it’s obviously tough to bet against the Clippers tonight. But they can still cruise to a victory while the Jazz hang in for some semi-competitive hoops.
The key tonight is Markkanen (illness), who’s listed as questionable after missing eight of Utah’s past nine games.
In Markkanen’s recent absences, the Jazz went 1-7 with a -15.9 average point differential. Woof.
But in their past 15 games with their talented Finn, the Jazz are 8-7 and have covered this number 12 times. Don’t forget that Markkanen helped Utah to a 129-108 win on opening night vs. the Clippers, too.
Bailey under 12.5 points(-107): Bailey has been getting a ton of shots up in Markkanen’s absence, but I expect that to be curtailed tonight.
During a seven-game stretch without Markkanen, the rookie averaged 15.4 points on 13.4 shot attempts. But he was pretty inconsistent, and this under went 3-4 in that span.
Before then, Bailey was averaging 9.9 PPG on 9.0 shot attempts.
Markkanen has put up 27.9 PPG this season on just south of 20.0 shots per game. He demands the ball when he’s out there, and that’s completely warranted.
Even if Markkanen isn’t at full strength tonight, I expect he’ll take a big bite out of Bailey’s opportunities.
The No. 5 pick in this past year’s draft has underwhelming shooting splits (45.0/34.0/72.2). He needs volume to produce.
Clippers prop prediction
Harden 8+ assists (-305): L.A.’s bearded floor general has averaged 8.1 assists so far and is 22-20 vs. this prop. With just those numbers in mind, this seems like an absurd amount of juice to deal with.
But the matchup is ideal, and Harden has been serving up tons of assists lately.
