Jordan Horrobin

Sporting a five-game division lead and a six-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rays rocked Kevin Gausman back in May (5.2 innings, 10 hits, six runs), but he’s on fire for Toronto right now. Gausman and the Jays are favoured as they look to grab a series win in South Florida.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 17, including prop picks on Gausman and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+125)

Gausman is in the zone right now, coming off three deep and effective starts for the Blue Jays.

In his past three outings, the veteran right-hander has allowed just 10 hits and two runs over 24.0 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout against a talented Astros team last time out.

Coming off back-to-back starts of 100+ pitches, I might typically be wary of backing Gausman at this outs total.

But he had an extra day of rest thanks to Trey Yesavage’s spot start, so that shouldn’t be a concern.

Also, Toronto’s bullpen could use a bit of a breather, with four of its eight arms likely unavailable tonight.

• Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Brendon Little all pitched in Games 1 and 2 of this series.

• Converted starter Eric Lauer threw 22 pitches over 1.1 innings last night. He has never pitched on back-to-back days in his MLB career.

• Neither Braydon Fisher nor Louis Varland pitched yesterday, but they’ve worked three of the previous five days.

Gausman is averaging 18.4 outs per start this season, and he’s cashing this bet more often than not right now. He has pitched into the seventh inning or later in eight of his past 10 starts.

I’m riding with the right-hander to keep shoving.

Key stat: Gausman is averaging 20.4 outs over his past 10 starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in that span.

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Jays prop picks

Clement over 1.5 total bases (+138): Clement is still one of MLB’s best hitters against left-handed pitching in 2025, and I’m still a fan of getting him at a price like this.

Check out his MLB ranks vs. LHPs this season:

• 9th in SLG (.557)
• 11th in BA (.329)
• 14th in wRC+ (149)

Over his past 11 games, Clement is 7-4 vs. this prop while posting a .325/.372/.475 slash line.

Like the rest of Toronto’s lineup, Clement will face Tampa Bay southpaw Ian Seymour for the first time. Seymour’s three-pitch mix consists of four-seamers, cutters and changeups.

Clement is slugging .557 vs. that pitch mix when facing LHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

The NL MVP frontrunner and an NL Cy Young short-lister square off tonight when the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies.

The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani and Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound tonight in a potential playoff preview. The Phillies have already clinched the NL East, while the Dodgers are 2.0 games ahead in their division.

Check out my Phillies vs. Dodgers SGP predictions for Sept. 16, with prop bets on Ohtani, Sanchez and Harrison Bader.

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Phillies +1.5 | Sanchez over 4.5 Ks | Ohtani under 1.5 bases | Bader over 0.5 hits (+375)

Phillies +1.5 (-190): The Dodgers are the World Series favourites, but I don’t care. When Sanchez is on the mound, this amount of cushion tends to be an excellent play.

• Philadelphia is 24-5 vs. a +1.5 run line with Sanchez this season. The Phillies are 21-8 SU in his outings.

• Sanchez is third in the majors in FIP (2.56) and fourth in ERA (2.57).

Philly is five games ahead of L.A. in the standings, and the Phillies are 3-1 vs. the Dodgers this season. Their four matchups were decided by a total of five runs, and yesterday’s game required extras.

This season series has been exceptionally even, which makes this cushion feel comfortable on the Phillies’ side.

As does the fact that Philadelphia has an MLB-best 140 wRC+ over the past 30 days (Los Angeles has a 112 wRC+ in the same span).

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Fade Ohtani at the plate

Ohtani under 1.5 bases (-155): Ohtani is on his way to a fourth MVP trophy in five seasons, and it’s largely thanks to his hitting abilities.

He’s also on his way to leading the majors in total bases for a second consecutive year. Right now, he’s averaging 2.34 bases per game.

Still, I feel comfortable fading him for a few reasons.

• Recent form: Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 15 of his past 22 games.

• Sanchez’s home run suppression: Sanchez has the lowest HR/9 in the majors (0.49).

• Ohtani’s two-way duties: In Ohtani’s past 10 starts as a pitcher, the under on his bases prop is 6-4.

Ohtani is 3-for-14 (.231) vs. Sanchez with zero extra-base hits and four strikeouts.

More SGP picks

Sanchez over 4.5 strikeouts (-210): Sanchez started against the Dodgers back in early April, and he tallied nine Ks over 5.2 innings.

His 9.5 K/9 this year is a solid rate — and a career high — and it means he’s well positioned to clear this modest total each time out.

• Sanchez is averaging 6.6 Ks per start.

• He has 5+ Ks in 24 of 29 games.

• He’s 13-1 vs. this prop since June 26, averaging 7.1 Ks per game in that span.

Sanchez ranks in the 75th percentile or better in strikeout rate, chase rate and whiff rate.

It’s been 20 starts since he last failed to pitch into the sixth inning, so expect him to have ample opportunities to get to this number.

Bader over 0.5 hits (-162): Bader, a trade deadline acquisition by the Phillies, has really proven his worth for his new club. Especially this month.

In September, the speedy outfielder is 23-for-58 (.397) with only three walks. He strikes out a fair amount, but the free-swinging tendencies are better than if he were drawing a bunch of free passes.

Ohtani won’t be a fun guy for Bader to face, but at least the platoon advantage is on his side.

Right-handed batters, like Bader, have a .306 BA vs. Ohtani this year. Lefties, meanwhile, are batting just .167.

Phillies vs. Dodgers predictions made at 11:19 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

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The Toronto Blue Jays carry a five-game win streak into Tuesday night’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Toronto outlasted Tampa, 2-1, for an 11-inning win last night. Tonight’s game is a pick’em, with Jose Berrios getting the ball for the Jays amid some extended struggles.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 16, including prop picks on Yandy Diaz and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Rays tie no bet — first five innings (-113)

The landscape of the Blue Jays’ pitching staff has shifted in the past month, with Shane Bieber stepping up and now Trey Yesavage dazzling in his MLB debut (Sept. 15).

Where does that leave Berrios regarding the impending playoff rotation? Likely on the outside looking in.

It’s not like Berrios has earned a more favourable fate. His past 10 starts have been far from desirable:

• 5.10 ERA
• 5.45 FIP
• .294 opponent BA
• 46% hard-hit rate

The reason for caution with this pick is that Toronto is 6-4 on the F5 moneyline during Berrios’ rough stretch. So it’s quite possible his offence bails him out … again.

But Ryan Pepiot can prevent that from happening. He’s on a tear right now, tossing 5.0 shutout innings in three consecutive starts — with just two hits allowed in that span.

Last time out against Toronto, Pepiot threw 7.0 IP of three-hit, shutout ball.

In limited action against the Jays’ active lineup, Pepiot has held the club to a .279 SLG. And his Rays are 2-0-0 on the F5 moneyline vs. Toronto in his outings this year.

Key stat: Berrios has allowed eight earned runs over 11.1 IP vs. Tampa this season. The Blue Jays are 0-2-0 on the F5 moneyline in those games.

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Jays prop picks

Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110): Diaz is on a killer run over his past 20 games that makes this prop well worth a buy.

• Since Aug. 21, Diaz has a .395/.459/.623 slash line for the Rays, with 14 runs, 10 extra-base hits and an equal total of walks and strikeouts (nine apiece).

• He is 11-9 vs. his run prop in that span.

Given that I’m low on Berrios, it makes sense to target someone in Tampa’s lineup. And Diaz, from the No. 2 spot in the order, should have a great chance to score.

Diaz is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run, two doubles and a walk against Berrios.

Varsho under 0.5 hits (-103): Varsho has a .912 OPS since the start of August. But he’s also hitless in 16 of 31 starts in that span.

It may be difficult to believe that both of those numbers are accurate, but that’s the all-or-nothing nature of Varsho’s offensive profile.

When he connects, the ball goes a mile; it’s just that he often doesn’t connect.

So, which side of the coin will we see from Varsho tonight? I prefer to fade him against Pepiot, who — as a reminder — has only allowed two hits in his past 15.0 innings.

Also, left-handed batters have a .188 BA in their career vs. Pepiot.

Blue Jays best bets made at 9:17 a.m. ET on 09/16/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect, Trey Yesavage, gets the start for his MLB debut on Monday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The pregame narrative: Rotation depth hasn’t been an issue for the Blue Jays, but they’ve opted to give their veteran group a breather by calling up the 22-year-old Yesavage. Toronto is just 1-5 vs. Tampa Bay this year, but the teams haven’t squared off since May.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 15, including a prop pick on George Springer.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Springer over 0.5 runs (-118)

This might not seem like an exciting price to pay, but Springer has been well worth it in the past two months.

Since the all-star break (37 games), Springer has been on an absurd heater:

• .370 BA
• .462 OBP
• .685 SLG
• 46 runs
• 1+ runs in 28 of 37

It’s been a spectacular second half for the Blue Jays’ biggest bats, as three of them (including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette) rank inside MLB’s top five in wRC+.

Springer leads the way with a 215 wRC+.

The veteran leadoff man is a great pick to score regardless of who’s on the mound right now, which is handy because the Rays’ starter hasn’t been announced at the time of this writing.

Right-hander Joe Boyle could be the guy, though, after he was scratched from his start for Triple-A Durham on Sunday.

Boyle has made five starts for the Rays since the all-star break, coughing up 22 runs and 39 baserunners in that span (9.68 ERA). So if he’s on the bump, that should boost Springer’s chances.

I also like Springer over 1.5 total bases (+105), especially if he’s facing Boyle.

The righty averages 98.6 mph on his fastball, and Springer is one of Toronto’s best when it comes to handling the heat (.556 SLG on pitches with a 97+ mph velocity, per Baseball Savant).

Key stat: Springer has scored 15 runs in his past 11 games.

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Jays ML pick

Blue Jays moneyline (-130): You never know exactly what to expect from a pitcher making his MLB debut, but this pick isn’t solely about Yesavage.

Toronto has been the far superior team offensively this season. Check out the difference in production over the past 30 days:

• Blue Jays: 5.85 runs/game, .811 OPS, 124 wRC+

• Rays: 4.38 runs/game, .729 OPS, 100 wRC+

Behind Yesavage, the Blue Jays have six relievers who’ve only worked either once or not at all in the past three days. So there should be plenty of pitching support, and I expect run support, too.

But let’s not forget that Yesavage was locked in during the final stretch of his minor-league tenure.

Over his final five outings with Triple-A Buffalo, Yesavage posted a 2.87 ERA and a 13.2 K/9.

Blue Jays best bets made at 10:47 a.m. ET on 09/15/2025.