Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Mariners vs. Astros Sunday Night Baseball picks: Naylor, Gilbert should lift Seattle in prime time

The stage is set for a Sunday Night Baseball matchup with major playoff implications.

The pregame narrative: Thanks to a pair of road wins to open this series, the Seattle Mariners have moved two games ahead of the Houston Astros in the AL West. Seattle is favoured to complete the sweep on Sunday night with Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Check out my Mariners vs. Astros picks, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Jesus Sanchez.

Mariners vs. Astros picks

Best Bet: Sanchez under 0.5 hits (+108)

I’ll gladly fade Sanchez at plus money in a matchup that isn’t doing him many favours.

The left-hitting Sanchez is better against right-handed pitching, understandably, but he’s facing a righty with reverse splits.

Gilbert has been tough on everybody this year, but left-handed batters have it worse:

LHBs vs. Gilbert: .195 BA, .581 OPS
RHBs vs. Gilbert: .234 BA, .712 OPS

Among 101 pitchers with 120-plus innings of work, Gilbert ranks first in K/9 (12.3), fifth in xERA (2.91) and 15th in opponent BA (.212).

I don’t see this going well for Sanchez, who is hitless in nine of his past 12 starts. In that span, he’s batting 3-for-36 (.083).

If Gilbert keeps Sanchez hitless and the Mariners go to a lefty in the bullpen, there’s a decent chance the outfielder will be subbed out.

So he may not have a full game’s worth of opportunities, which only makes me more bullish on this prop.

Key stat: Gilbert has a .207 xBA (90th percentile), according to Baseball Savant.

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Best MLB pick

Naylor over 1.5 total bases (+120): Naylor has been exactly what the Mariners were looking for as they readied for a playoff push, and he’s swinging a particularly hot bat right now.

The Mississauga, Ontario native has a .373/.411/.647 slash line since Sept. 6.

He is 9-4 vs. his bases prop in that span, averaging 2.5 bases per start.

The left-hitting slugger does his best work against righties, so I’m hoping for big things against Houston right-hander Jason Alexander. Naylor has an .831 OPS vs. RHPs this season.

Look for Naylor to continue to slug from the heart of Seattle’s order.

Mariners vs. Astros picks made at 12:54 p.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and predictions Sept. 21: Fade offence in series finale

The Toronto Blue Jays need a win today to avoid a three-game sweep in their final road series of the regular season.

The pregame narrative: After a pair of losses to the Kansas City Royals, the Jays are no longer in a very comfortable spot atop the American League standings. But with a two-game lead in the AL East and a three-game cushion for a bye, Toronto is still in pole position.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 21 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring a prop prediction on Mike Yastrzemski.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best bet: Under 9 runs (-138)

The Blue Jays have thrown their top pitching prospect, Trey Yesavage, right into the fire known as an MLB playoff race. He excelled in his first start, and I’m hoping for more of the same on Sunday.

After working a 3.22 ERA across four minor league levels this season, Yesavage took a five-inning no-decision in a 2-1 win last Monday over the Tampa Bay Rays.

If he continues his strong form today, great. But if not, the Blue Jays should have ample support behind him, with a bullpen that includes a pair of rested high-leverage relievers and a recently demoted Jose Berrios.

Toronto has the highest overs rate in MLB (84-65-6, 56.4%), per Team Rankings, but there are other factors to consider here:

Most of Toronto’s high-scoring games come at Rogers Centre. On the road, the Blue Jays hit the over 52.6% of the time (10th in MLB).

Kansas City has MLB’s highest unders rate at home (62.0%), as well as the fourth-highest unders rate overall (56.2%).

The Blue Jays’ offence has a 72 wRC+ in the past two weeks, which ranks 25th in MLB. In this series, the Jays have just two runs on seven hits in 18 innings.

Michael Wacha starts for the Royals after a truly miserable outing on Sept. 16 against the blazing hot Seattle Mariners (2.2 IP, nine hits, seven runs). Before that, he’d been lights out for a while.

In a 10-start stretch from July 11 through Sept. 5, Wacha had a 2.79 ERA and a .224 opponent batting average. The average total in those games was 7.9 runs.

Key stat: In Wacha’s past 15 starts, this under is 10-5.

Jays prop prediction

Yastrzemski under 0.5 hits (+105): Simply put, Yastrzemski is a struggling hitter who doesn’t profile well against Yesavage’s pitch mix.

The Royals outfielder is 7-for-56 (.125) in his past 18 games. He has gone hitless in 10 of 16 starts during that span.

Yesavage’s two secondary pitches are splitters and sliders. Against RHPs throwing those pitches, Yastrzemski is 3-for-17 (.176).

Yastrzemski is a platoon player as it is, with aggressive righty/lefty splits (.247 BA vs. righties, .138 BA vs. lefties).

He’ll likely be lifted from the game if the Blue Jays bring in a lefty reliever, which means he should have less than a full game’s worth of opportunities.

Blue Jays picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 21: Bet overs on Ranger Suarez, Andrew Abbott

I’m targeting a pair of southpaws as part of Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ranger Suarez’s strikeouts prop is set at 4.5, which seems modest relative to his output this season. Suarez should fare well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, while I expect Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to give his team some length vs. the Chicago Cubs.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 21, featuring a prediction on Brandon Nimmo.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Abbott over 15.5 outs (-125)

Abbott’s promising career has gotten better with each passing season, and I’m hoping he can put a bow on an impressive Year 3.

The 26-year-old has a sub-3.00 ERA through 27 starts, which includes three solid-or-better outings against the Cubs (today’s opponent):

May 24: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K
May 30: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K
Aug. 6: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Abbott is 3-0 vs. this prop bet when facing the Cubs in 2025, averaging 19.3 outs in those starts.

He isn’t always called upon to work deep, but it’s not like the Reds are treating him with kid gloves. He has thrown 95+ pitches in 16 of his 27 starts.

I was initially looking at Abbott’s strikeout prop, which sits at even money to the over on 4.5 Ks. He has cashed that bet in seven consecutive starts but is just 1-2 on that line vs. Chicago.

The Cubs are a low-strikeout team, with the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB. Their ability to put the ball in play could help Abbott keep his pitch count in check.

Cincinnati still has plenty to play for, too, which I think works in Abbott’s favour.

The Reds are one game out of a wild-card spot. If Abbott is rolling, I wouldn’t expect him to get a quick hook — especially since the team’s setup man and closer both pitched in the first two games of this series.

Key stat: Abbott has held the Cubs’ active lineup to a .209 batting average and a sub-.400 SLG in 91 at-bats.

Best MLB picks

Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+120): Nimmo is a cleanup man hitting in front of three scorching hitters.

Over the past week, the trio of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso all have an OPS of .993 or above and a wRC+ of 163 or above.

If those guys can continue to find ways on base, I like Nimmo’s opportunity to bring someone home.

Nimmo is 7-for-20 (.350) with a pair of home runs vs. Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

Irvin has been getting shelled recently, coughing up 44 runs over 42.0 innings in his past nine starts.

In three starts vs. the Mets this year, Irvin has allowed 25 baserunners and 11 runs in 18.1 IP.

Nimmo is 3-0 vs. this prop in Irvin’s three starts against the Mets. He’s also 5-4 vs. this prop in his past nine games overall.

Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-120): Suarez was chased early in his lone start against the Diamondbacks, but he still managed to strike out six batters over 3.2 innings.

Ideally, he can stick around for longer in today’s outing, and if so, I really like his chances to cash this bet.

He’s averaging 6.0 Ks per start this year (145 strikeouts in 24 starts).

Suarez has 5+ Ks in 18 of 24 outings.

In three starts vs. the Diamondbacks since 2023, Suarez is 3-0 vs. this prop.

Suarez has collected 10+ Ks in three of his past six starts, so his ceiling as a strikeout generator is quite high. This really isn’t a significant total for him to clear.

MLB prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 21: Bet overs on Ranger Suarez, Andrew Abbott

I’m targeting a pair of southpaws as part of Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Ranger Suarez‘s strikeouts prop is set at 4.5, which seems modest relative to his output this season. Suarez should fare well against the Arizona Diamondbacks, while I expect Reds lefty Andrew Abbott to give his team some length vs. the Chicago Cubs.

Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 21, featuring a prediction on Brandon Nimmo.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Abbott over 16.5 outs (-105)

Abbott’s promising career has gotten better with each passing season, and I’m hoping he can put a bow on an impressive Year 3.

The 26-year-old has a sub-3.00 ERA through 27 starts, which includes three solid-or-better outings against the Cubs (today’s opponent):

May 24: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K
May 30: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K
Aug. 6: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Abbott is 3-0 vs. this prop bet when facing the Cubs in 2025, averaging 19.3 outs in those starts.

He isn’t always called upon to work deep, but it’s not like the Reds are treating him with kid gloves. He has thrown 95+ pitches in 16 of his 27 starts.

I was initially looking at Abbott’s strikeout prop, which sits at plus money to the over on 4.5 Ks. He has cashed that bet in seven consecutive starts but is just 1-2 on that line vs. Chicago.

The Cubs are a low-strikeout team, with the sixth-lowest K rate in MLB. Their ability to put the ball in play could help Abbott keep his pitch count in check.

Cincinnati still has plenty to play for, too, which I think works in Abbott’s favour.

The Reds are one game out of a wild-card spot. If Abbott is rolling, I wouldn’t expect him to get a quick hook — especially since the team’s setup man and closer both pitched in the first two games of this series.

Key stat: Abbott has held the Cubs’ active lineup to a .209 batting average and a sub-.400 SLG in 91 at-bats.

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Best MLB picks

Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+138): Nimmo is a cleanup man hitting in front of three scorching hitters.

Over the past week, the trio of Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso all have an OPS of .993 or above and a wRC+ of 163 or above.

If those guys can continue to find ways on base, I like Nimmo’s opportunity to bring someone home.

Nimmo is 7-for-20 (.350) with a pair of home runs vs. Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

Irvin has been getting shelled recently, coughing up 44 runs over 42.0 innings in his past nine starts.

In three starts vs. the Mets this year, Irvin has allowed 25 baserunners and 11 runs in 18.1 IP.

Nimmo is 3-0 vs. this prop in Irvin’s three starts against the Mets. He’s also 5-4 vs. this prop in his past nine games overall.

Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-112): Suarez was chased early in his lone start against the Diamondbacks, but he still managed to strike out six batters over 3.2 innings.

Ideally, he can stick around for longer in today’s outing, and if so, I really like his chances to cash this bet.

He’s averaging 6.0 Ks per start this year (145 strikeouts in 24 starts).

Suarez has 5+ Ks in 18 of 24 outings.

In three starts vs. the Diamondbacks since 2023, Suarez is 3-0 vs. this prop.

Suarez has collected 10+ Ks in three of his past six starts, so his ceiling as a strikeout generator is quite high. This really isn’t a significant total for him to clear.

MLB prop picks made at 10:45 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Royals picks and predictions Sept. 21: Fade offence, bet the over on Yesavage’s strikeouts prop

The Toronto Blue Jays need a win today to avoid a three-game sweep in their final road series of the regular season.

The pregame narrative: After a pair of losses to the Kansas City Royals, the Jays are no longer in a very comfortable spot atop the American League standings. But with a two-game lead in the AL East and a three-game cushion for a bye, Toronto is still in pole position.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Royals for the Sept. 21 game at Kauffman Stadium, featuring prop predictions on Trey Yesavage and Mike Yastrzemski.

Blue Jays picks vs. Royals

Best bet: Under 9 runs (-110)

The Blue Jays have thrown their top pitching prospect, Trey Yesavage, right into the fire known as an MLB playoff race. He excelled in his first start, and I’m hoping for more of the same on Sunday.

After working a 3.22 ERA across four minor league levels this season, Yesavage took a five-inning no-decision in a 2-1 win last Monday over the Tampa Bay Rays.

If he continues his strong form today, great. But if not, the Blue Jays should have ample support behind him, with a bullpen that includes a pair of rested high-leverage relievers and a recently demoted Jose Berrios.

Toronto has the highest overs rate in MLB (84-65-6, 56.4%), per Team Rankings, but there are other factors to consider here:

Most of Toronto’s high-scoring games come at Rogers Centre. On the road, the Blue Jays hit the over 52.6% of the time (10th in MLB).

Kansas City has MLB’s highest unders rate at home (62.0%), as well as the fourth-highest unders rate overall (56.2%).

The Blue Jays’ offence has a 72 wRC+ in the past two weeks, which ranks 25th in MLB. In this series, the Jays have just two runs on seven hits in 18 innings.

Michael Wacha starts for the Royals after a truly miserable outing on Sept. 16 against the blazing hot Seattle Mariners (2.2 IP, nine hits, seven runs). Before that, he’d been lights out for a while.

In a 10-start stretch from July 11 through Sept. 5, Wacha had a 2.79 ERA and a .224 opponent batting average. The average total in those games was 7.9 runs.

Key stat: In Wacha’s past 15 starts, this under is 10-5.

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Jays prop predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-120): The only team with a strikeout rate lower than the Blue Jays since the all-star break is … the Royals. That makes the over on this strikeouts prop a more difficult side to argue for.

But Yesavage was so devastatingly good in his debut outing, and I believe the unfamiliarity between him and KC should work in the young right-hander’s favour.

Over 5.0 IP last Monday vs. the Rays, Yesavage compiled nine strikeouts — a franchise record for an MLB debut.

Yesavage had 19 whiffs against Tampa, and according to MLB.com’s research department, that tied for the fifth-most in an MLB debut since 2008 (i.e., the start of the pitch tracking era).

Toronto has an off-day on Monday, and Berrios is available in the bullpen now to provide length if needed. So the Jays won’t need to push Yesavage deep into this game.

But he shouldn’t need a huge workload to contend for this prop. After all, he cashed this in the third inning last time out.

Yastrzemski under 0.5 hits (-108): Simply put, Yastrzemski is a struggling hitter who doesn’t profile well against Yesavage’s pitch mix.

The Royals outfielder is 7-for-56 (.125) in his past 18 games. He has gone hitless in 10 of 16 starts during that span.

Yesavage’s two secondary pitches are splitters and sliders. Against RHPs throwing those pitches, Yastrzemski is 3-for-17 (.176).

Yastrzemski is a platoon player as it is, with aggressive righty/lefty splits (.247 BA vs. righties, .138 BA vs. lefties).

He’ll likely be lifted from the game if the Blue Jays bring in a lefty reliever, which means he should have less than a full game’s worth of opportunities.

Blue Jays picks made at 8:40 a.m. ET on 09/21/2025.

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College football Week 4 parlay predictions: Look for Carson Beck to shine, No. 9 Illinois to cover

Big Ten conference play gets rolling with a key matchup this week between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Indiana Hoosiers.

The pregame narrative: No. 19 Indiana hasn’t proven anything yet, but it’s a home favourite vs. No. 9 Illinois. The Fighting Illini are off to a commanding start and have been a stellar ATS team since the beginning of last year.

Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 4, featuring a prop bet on Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck.

College football predictions: Week 4 parlay

Parlay: Beck over 1.5 pass TDs | Illinois +8.5 | South Alabama -12.5 (+260)

Beck over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-225): Life is good for Beck down in Miami, where the highly-touted transfer has his Hurricanes off to a 3-0 start.

Beck has thrown for 812 yards and seven touchdowns through three games. He leads the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per attempt (9.9), completion percentage (79.3%) and passer rating (185.7).

The former Georgia QB is 3-0 against this prop and draws a defence this week that he should be able to air it out against.

Beck faces the Florida Gators, who rank third in defensive EPA per rush and 69th in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.

Expect Beck to cash this milestone for a fourth straight game.

Full NCAAF betting markets

NCAAF parlay picks

Illinois +8 (-175): Indiana haters criticized the team’s toothless non-conference schedule last season, and the Hoosiers followed it up with another trio of cupcakes this season.

The Hoosiers were favoured by more than a touchdown in all three games, covering the spread in two of them. Now, IU faces a much tougher task with No. 9 Illinois in town.

How often can you back a top-10 team at a price/spread like this? Illinois is looking to prove last year’s 10-win campaign wasn’t a fluke, and this is a great opportunity to do that.

Luke Altmyer is back under centre and is off to a crisp start. He threw for 296 yards and three TDs in a 45-19 win at Duke two weeks ago (will Illinois as a -2.5 favourite).

Since the start of last year, Illinois is 12-3-1 ATS (second-best mark in NCAA Division I).

South Alabama -12.5 (-167): The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have gained praise this season for providing free concessions at home games. But on the field, there aren’t a lot of nice things to say.

Coastal is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, with its lone win coming against Charleston Southern (FCS). The Chanticleers have scored just 20 total points so far.

The South Alabama Jaguars, meanwhile, put up respectable efforts the past two weeks to cover hefty spreads against stiff competition:

Sept. 6: 33-31 loss vs. Tulane (13-point underdog)

Sept. 13: 31-15 loss at Auburn (25.5-point underdog)

South Alabama quarterback Bishop Davenport paces Conference USA in completion percentage (73.4%) and passer rating (175.7).

The Jags have proven they can move the ball, ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play and 64th in success rate so far.

As for the Chanticleers, their offence is 131st in both EPA per play and success rate. I just don’t think the visitors will keep up on Saturday night.

College football predictions made at 2:10 p.m. on 09/11/2025.

College football Week 4 parlay predictions: Look for Carson Beck to shine, No. 9 Illinois to cover

Big Ten conference play gets rolling with a key matchup this week between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the Indiana Hoosiers.

The pregame narrative: No. 19 Indiana hasn’t proven anything yet, but it’s a home favourite vs. No. 9 Illinois. The Fighting Illini are off to a commanding start and have been a stellar ATS team since the beginning of last year.

Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 4, featuring a prop bet on Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck.

College football predictions: Week 4 parlay

Parlay: Beck 250+ pass yards | Illinois +8.5 | South Alabama -12.5 (+308)

Beck 250+ passing yards (-190): Life is good for Beck down in Miami, where the highly-touted transfer has his Hurricanes off to a 3-0 start.

Beck has thrown for 812 yards and seven touchdowns through three games. He leads the Atlantic Coast Conference in yards per attempt (9.9), completion percentage (79.3%) and passer rating (185.7).

The former Georgia QB was relatively quiet in Week 1 vs. Notre Dame, throwing for 205 yards on 20-of-30 passing.

The Fighting Irish defence is typically tough against the pass, though, and the unit ranked No. 1 in EPA per pass last season (per Game On Paper).

Beck faces the Florida Gators, who rank third in defensive EPA per rush and 69th in EPA per pass.

Expect Beck to cash this milestone for a third straight game.

Full NCAAF betting markets

NCAAF parlay picks

Illinois +8.5 (-182): Indiana haters criticized the team’s toothless non-conference schedule last season, and the Hoosiers followed it up with another trio of cupcakes this season.

The Hoosiers were favoured by more than a touchdown in all three games, covering the spread in two of them. Now, IU faces a much tougher task with No. 9 Illinois in town.

How often can you back a top-10 team at a price/spread like this? Illinois is looking to prove last year’s 10-win campaign wasn’t a fluke, and this is a great opportunity to do that.

Luke Altmyer is back under centre and is off to a crisp start. He threw for 296 yards and three TDs in a 45-19 win at Duke two weeks ago (will Illinois as a -2.5 favourite).

Since the start of last year, Illinois is 12-3-1 ATS (second-best mark in NCAA Division I).

South Alabama -12.5 (-137): The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have gained praise this season for providing free concessions at home games. But on the field, there aren’t a lot of nice things to say.

Coastal is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, with its lone win coming against Charleston Southern (FCS). The Chanticleers have scored just 20 total points so far.

The South Alabama Jaguars, meanwhile, put up respectable efforts the past two weeks to cover some sizeable spreads against stiff competition:

Sept. 6: 33-31 loss vs. Tulane (13-point underdog)

Sept. 13: 31-15 loss at Auburn (25.5-point underdog)

South Alabama quarterback Bishop Davenport has been excellently efficient, pacing Conference USA in completion percentage (73.4%) and passer rating (175.7).

The Jags have proven they can move the ball, ranking 24th in offensive EPA per play and 64th in success rate so far.

As for the Chanticleers, their offence is 131st in both EPA per play and success rate. I just don’t think the visitors will keep up on Saturday night.

College football predictions made at 2:10 p.m. on 09/11/2025.

Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Week 3 SGP predictions: Bet on Kincaid to produce, Buffalo to roll at home

NFL Week 3 begins with an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo earned a comfortable win in Week 2 and is a heavy home favourite over a downtrodden Miami team. The Dolphins haven’t won in Western New York since 2016.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 3 below, featuring Dalton Kincaid and Tua Tagovailoa.

Dolphins vs. Bills SGP predictions

SGP: Bills -6.5 | Kincaid over 30.5 rec. yards | Tagovailoa 1+ INTs (+333)

Bills -6.5 (-264): Buffalo and Miami have gotten off to utterly opposite starts.

The Bills are 2-0 with a +21 point differential. That includes a remarkable comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1 after trailing by 15 in the fourth quarter.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 0-2 with an AFC-worst -31 point differential. After digging a 30-0 hole against the Colts in Week 1, Miami lost as home favourites vs. the Patriots last week.

In their recent head-to-head history, the Bills have absolutely dominated the Dolphins. Buffalo is 9-1 SU against Miami since January 2021, and the Bills have covered a -6.5 spread in three of four meetings over the two previous seasons.

Since the start of the 2022 season, the Bills are 26-4 at home with a 12.5-point average victory margin.

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards (-118): Buffalo spreads the ball around, which can make it difficult to target anyone individually for a high-ceiling output. In Week 1 alone, nine Bills caught at least one pass.

Fortunately, we don’t need a massive game from Kincaid to cash this leg of the SGP. And his floor seems plenty high enough.

Kincaid has eight catches for 85 yards and a TD through two games. He’s 2-0 vs. this prop.

In his career vs. Miami, Kincaid has averaged 44.0 receiving yards over four games. He had at least four catches in each of those matchups.

Dawson Knox has a slight lead over Kincaid in total snaps, but not all snaps yield the same opportunity. Kincaid is clearly the No. 1 TE option in the receiving game.

According to RotoWire, Kincaid has participated in 63% of the Bills’ routes, while Knox’s route participation is just 45%.

Tagovailoa to throw an interception (-163): Buffalo hasn’t nabbed an interception yet, but I say that changes this week.

Tagovailoa already has three interceptions through two games. He was miserable in Miami’s first road game of the year (at Indianapolis):

14-for-23 passing
114 yards
5.0 yards/attempt
2 INTs

In 30 career road games, Tagovailoa has 28 interceptions. He’ll likely have to throw a lot in a game where his squad is a 12.5-point underdog.

Since the start of 2023, Tagovailoa has six INTs in four starts vs. Buffalo.

Dolphins vs. Billd predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 09/17/2025.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays Sept. 17: Bet on Kevin Gausman, Ernie Clement in plus-money props

Sporting a five-game division lead and a six-game win streak, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Rays rocked Kevin Gausman back in May (5.2 innings, 10 hits, six runs), but he’s on fire for Toronto right now. Gausman and the Jays are favoured as they look to grab a series win in South Florida.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Rays for Sept. 17, including prop picks on Gausman and Ernie Clement.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Rays

Best bet: Gausman over 18.5 outs (+145)

Gausman is in the zone right now, coming off three deep and effective starts for the Blue Jays.

In his past three outings, the veteran right-hander has allowed just 10 hits and two runs over 24.0 innings. That includes a two-hit shutout against a talented Astros team last time out.

Coming off back-to-back starts of 100+ pitches, I might typically be wary of backing Gausman at this outs total.

But he had an extra day of rest thanks to Trey Yesavage’s spot start, so that shouldn’t be a concern.

Also, Toronto’s bullpen could use a bit of a breather, with four of its eight arms likely unavailable tonight.

Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez and Brendon Little all pitched in Games 1 and 2 of this series.

Converted starter Eric Lauer threw 22 pitches over 1.1 innings last night. He has never pitched on back-to-back days in his MLB career.

Neither Braydon Fisher nor Louis Varland pitched yesterday, but they’ve worked three of the previous five days.

Gausman is averaging 18.4 outs per start this season, and he’s cashing this bet more often than not right now. He has pitched into the seventh inning or later in eight of his past 10 starts.

I’m riding with the right-hander to keep shoving.

Key stat: Gausman is averaging 20.4 outs over his past 10 starts, posting a 2.25 ERA in that span.

Jays prop picks

Clement over 1.5 total bases (+130): Clement is still one of MLB’s best hitters against left-handed pitching in 2025, and I’m still a fan of getting him at a price like this.

Check out his MLB ranks vs. LHPs this season:

9th in SLG (.557)
11th in BA (.329)
14th in wRC+ (149)

Over his past 11 games, Clement is 7-4 vs. this prop while posting a .325/.372/.475 slash line.

Like the rest of Toronto’s lineup, Clement will face Tampa Bay southpaw Ian Seymour for the first time. Seymour’s three-pitch mix consists of four-seamers, cutters and changeups.

Clement is slugging .557 vs. that pitch mix when facing LHPs this season, per Baseball Savant.

Blue Jays best bets made at 11:37 a.m. ET on 09/17/2025.

Dolphins vs. Bills TNF Week 3 SGP predictions: Bet on Kincaid to produce, Buffalo to roll at home

NFL Week 3 begins with an AFC East battle between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

The pregame narrative: Buffalo earned a comfortable win in Week 2 and is a heavy home favourite over a downtrodden Miami team. The Dolphins haven’t won in Western New York since 2016.

Check out my Dolphins vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 3 below, featuring Dalton Kincaid and Tua Tagovailoa.

Dolphins vs. Bills SGP predictions

SGP: Bills -6.5 | Kincaid over 30.5 rec. yards | Tagovailoa 1+ INTs (+280)

Bills -6.5 (-250): Buffalo and Miami have gotten off to utterly opposite starts.

The Bills are 2-0 with a +21 point differential. That includes a remarkable comeback win over the Ravens in Week 1 after trailing by 15 in the fourth quarter.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 0-2 with an AFC-worst -31 point differential. After digging a 30-0 hole against the Colts in Week 1, Miami lost as home favourites vs. the Patriots last week.

In their recent head-to-head history, the Bills have absolutely dominated the Dolphins. Buffalo is 9-1 SU against Miami since January 2021, and the Bills have covered a -6.5 spread in three of four meetings over the two previous seasons.

Since the start of the 2022 season, the Bills are 26-4 at home with a 12.5-point average victory margin.

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Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Kincaid over 30.5 receiving yards (-108): Buffalo spreads the ball around, which can make it difficult to target anyone individually for a high-ceiling output. In Week 1 alone, nine Bills caught at least one pass.

Fortunately, we don’t need a massive game from Kincaid to cash this leg of the SGP. And his floor seems plenty high enough.

Kincaid has eight catches for 85 yards and a TD through two games. He’s 2-0 vs. this prop.

In his career vs. Miami, Kincaid has averaged 44.0 receiving yards over four games. He had at least four catches in each of those matchups.

Dawson Knox has a slight lead over Kincaid in total snaps, but not all snaps yield the same opportunity. Kincaid is clearly the No. 1 TE option in the receiving game.

According to RotoWire, Kincaid has participated in 63% of the Bills’ routes, while Knox’s route participation is just 45%.

Tagovailoa to throw an interception (-162): Buffalo hasn’t nabbed an interception yet, but I say that changes this week.

Tagovailoa already has three interceptions through two games. He was miserable in Miami’s first road game of the year (at Indianapolis):

14-for-23 passing
114 yards
5.0 yards/attempt
2 INTs

In 30 career road games, Tagovailoa has 28 interceptions. He’ll likely have to throw a lot in a game where his squad is a 12.5-point underdog.

Since the start of 2023, Tagovailoa has six INTs in four starts vs. Buffalo.

Dolphins vs. Billd predictions made at 11:15 a.m. on 09/17/2025.