Jordan Horrobin

A trio of late-night, California-based MLB prop bets are on my ticket for Tuesday.

Today’s MLB props narrative: There are six games starting after 9 p.m. ET tonight, and I’ve got predictions for three of them. Logan O’Hoppe and Brent Rooker both look like logical fade candidates, while Mookie Betts is worth backing amid his September surge.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 23.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Rooker under 0.5 runs (-105)

I’ve found myself riding with Rooker a lot this season, especially inside the offence-friendly confines of Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.

But his production has dipped recently, and I think he’s worth a fade on this prop at near-even money.

• Rooker has failed to score a run in 14 of 19 games since Aug. 31.

• In that 19-game span, he’s batting .215 with a .271 on-base percentage.

Rooker has moved between the second, third and fourth spots in the Athletics’ lineup most of the year, and he’s in the No. 2 spot right now.

That theoretically improves his chances to score, but not to an extent that I’m overly concerned.

The three A’s hitters behind Rooker — Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers — have a collective .223/.281/.402 slash line over the past two weeks.

As a whole, the A’s have a 92 wRC+ in that span (18th in MLB).

Houston Astros starter Cristian Javier threw 6.0 innings of two-hit, shutout ball against the A’s last season. He has a .215 xBA through seven starts this year and can hopefully keep the A’s bats quiet again.

Key stat: Rooker is 0-for-6 with three Ks vs. Javier. Altogether, the A’s are 1-for-19 with seven strikeouts against the Houston righty.

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Best MLB picks

Betts over 1.5 total bases (-112): It’s been a weird year for Betts, who entered September with a sub-.700 OPS.

For a guy who’d never had a sub-.800 OPS season before, that’s quite an anomaly.

But Betts is looking good these days, which is a huge lift for a Los Angeles Dodgers team that’s trying to lock down the NL West.

• So far in September, Betts has posted a .312/.360/.636 slash line.

• He’s 12-7 vs. this prop and is averaging 2.6 bases per game.

Betts is 9-for-20 with a double and two home runs vs. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt. That includes a 2-for-3 showing on the final day of August, which kick-started this current hot streak.

Pfaadt ranks in the sixth percentile in xERA (5.55) and in the second percentile in xBA (.301), per Baseball Savant.

O’Hoppe under 0.5 hits (+125): When I first looked at tonight’s Royals vs. Angels matchup, I wanted to bet on Cole Ragans’ strikeouts prop … but a -115 price for over 6.5 Ks while he’s on a pitch count didn’t entice me.

Fading O’Hoppe is somewhat of an endorsement for Ragans, though. O’Hoppe strikes out a ton, and now he’s up against a pitcher with an 11.2 K/9 over the past three seasons.

Oh, and O’Hoppe is 0-for-5 with four Ks in his previous matchups against Ragans.

With that in mind, this is a great price to fade L.A.’s catcher. But even against a lesser pitcher, I think I could make the case.

In his past 27 games, O’Hoppe is batting .141 with a 32.3% K rate. He has gone hitless in 15 of 25 starts in that span.

MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/23/2025.

It’s time for the final homestand of the Toronto Blue Jays’ regular season, and the Boston Red Sox are in town to open a three-game series on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto sits two games clear of the New York Yankees in the AL East and can wrap things up in a matter of days. Tonight, Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the home team in search of a fifth straight outing with fewer than two runs allowed.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 23 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop predictions involving Jarren Duran, George Springer and Masataka Yoshida.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Duran over 1.5 total bases (+128)

Duran has bounced around Boston’s lineup a bit, but he’s back in the leadoff spot, which means he’ll get as many opportunities as possible to cash this bet.

And although Gausman is on a heater for the Blue Jays, this is a matchup that Duran can thrive in. After all, he’s done it before.

• In their past matchups, Duran is 8-for-22 (.364) vs. Gausman with five doubles and a home run.

• Duran went 2-0 vs. this prop last season when facing Gausman at Rogers Centre. He had an extra-base hit off the right-hander in both games.

Duran has 92nd-percentile sprint speed, according to Baseball Savant, and I like his chances of stretching for a double if he finds a gap.

Rogers Centre has allowed more doubles than average to left-handed batters in 12 of the past 14 seasons, as tracked by Baseball Savant’s park factors.

The other component I like for this play is that Duran fares well against Gausman’s two-pitch mix of four-seam fastballs and splitters.

Against those pitch types from right-handers this season, Duran has a .317/.412/.617 slash line in 180 at-bats.

Key stat: Over his past 19 games, Duran is 10-9 vs. this prop while slugging .507.

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Jays prop predictions

Parlay: Gausman over 5.5 Ks, Springer over 0.5 hits (+130): Despite what I think Duran could accomplish tonight, Gausman is in a good spot to mow down the Red Sox.

• In his lone start vs. Boston this season, Gausman struck out 10 over 8.0 innings.

• He has a 30.6% K rate against the Red Sox’ active lineup in 157 plate appearances (MLB average K rate is 22.1%).

• Gausman is 7-4 vs. this prop in his past 11 starts, averaging 6.6 Ks per game.

I don’t mind backing Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-148) as a standalone here. But that’s a lot of juice, so I tacked on a hit from Springer to push this into plus-money territory.

Springer is batting .354 over his past 20 games and is 16-4 vs. this prop.

Yoshida over 0.5 RBI (+200): Yoshida is not your typical cleanup hitter. But he’s in the No. 4 spot right now, and that makes me very interested in this RBI prop price.

Though he only has three extra-base hits this month, Yoshida has been solid at the dish with a .313 batting average. And he’s 4-1 vs. this prop since moving into the cleanup spot.

Yoshida is also 6-for-12 with two doubles and a homer off Gausman. If there’s traffic on the basepaths in front of him, this price will look like a bargain.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/23/2025.

Fresh off a champagne and beer shower to celebrate their playoff berth, the Toronto Blue Jays are back at home with another important series on tap.

Toronto (90-66) became the first American League club to clinch a playoff spot, and the AL East title is the next thing in its sights. The Jays, who lead their division by two games, host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre this week with a shot at securing the No. 1 seed.

Check out our Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 23-25 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview

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The Blue Jays are in as great a shape as anyone could’ve asked for entering the season.

Entering the final week, they hold a multi-game lead in the contentious AL East with a prime opportunity to lock down the division at home.

Monday was a well-timed day off for a team that might’ve had a few hangovers following Sunday’s sudsy celebration. It’s back to work on Tuesday against a Red Sox team that is awfully hungry for a party of its own.

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Boston is technically still alive for the division, but sitting five games back with six to play makes that an incredible long shot.

What’s more important for the Red Sox is securing a wild-card spot, as they are one of three teams competing for the AL’s fifth and sixth seeds.

Boston’s three best starters are lined up for this series, and both teams have rested bullpens. We could be in for some chess matches inside The Dome this week.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA)

• Both of Giolito’s outings vs. the Jays this year were quality starts, but it’s been almost three months since he saw them. Giolito’s 5.04 xERA and .273 xBA are both in the bottom-20th percentile in MLB, per Baseball Savant, so his solid results this year could be a bit fluky.

• Gausman wasn’t an all-star this year, but he would be if the first and second halves were flipped. Since the break, the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and a .170 opponent batting average in 11 outings. Somehow, Toronto is only 5-6 in those games.

Sept. 10: RHP Garrett Crochet (17-5, 2.69 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (5-4, 5.06 ERA)

• Crochet has been even better than advertised in his first season with Boston, pacing the majors in strikeouts (249) and innings (197.1) in just his second year as a starter. The Red Sox are 22-9 in his outings, winning each of the past six.

• Scherzer is coming off his worst start of the year, as he allowed seven runs while recording just two outs against the Royals. He has a 9.45 ERA over his past five starts, with 35 baserunners allowed in 20.0 innings. This would be a logical piggybacking opportunity for Jose Berrios, who was moved to the bullpen but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 16.

Sept. 11: RHP Brayan Bello (11-8, 3.34 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.57 ERA)

• Toronto hitters have seen plenty of Bello through the years, and the results have been solid on their side. The Jays’ lineup is batting .299 with a .449 SLG in 127 at-bats vs. Bello. In his lone start against Toronto this year, he allowed three runs on eight hits over 6.0 IP in a 9-0 loss.

• It’s only been six starts, but Bieber continues to be a reliable arm for Toronto. He has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in every outing, and he has a 6.8 K/BB ratio (MLB average is 2.62).

Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer still has MLB’s best wRC+ in the second half (206), and his September has been among the league’s best, too. This month, the veteran outfielder has a .333/.419/.640 slash line in 18 games. He is 10-9 vs. both his runs prop and his total bases prop.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B): Am I nitpicking by highlighting Guerrero here? Maybe a little bit. He hasn’t been bad per se, but his 14-game home run drought is worth noting. In that span, Guerrero is batting .296 but with a feeble .333 SLG. He’s still in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of key offensive metrics (including xBA, xSLG, hard-hit rate and K rate), but Toronto needs more pop from its No. 3 hitter.

Trevor Story (SS): In his past 20 games, Story has a .321/.368/.506 slash line and eight stolen bases. He was bumped up to the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order five games ago and has scored a run in every game since.

Aroldis Chapman (RP): Chapman has been MLB’s best closer this season, so it’ll take more than a couple of so-so outings to alter his reputation. But he has allowed two runs and seven baserunners over his past five outings, which is why he’s featured here. Prior to that, Chapman had gone 17 consecutive appearances without allowing a hit or a run.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

• Toronto has the 3rd-best run line record in MLB (87-69, 55.8%).

• Overs are 85-65-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

• Overs are 42-35-1 when Boston is playing on the road (4th in MLB).

• The Jays are 50-25 at home (2nd in MLB).

• Toronto is 7-3 vs. Boston this year. In their past two series against each other, the average game total was 10.7 runs.

• Jeff Hoffman is 3-for-3 in save opportunities over his past 10 games, allowing just one run in that span.

• Alejandro Kirk is 5-for-37 (.135) with zero extra-base hits in his past 13 games.

Two playoff-bound teams from the National League meet on Monday night, as the San Diego Padres open a home series against the Milwaukee Brewers.

The pregame narrative: Technically, the Padres aren’t a lock for the postseason yet. But a win tonight would change that. Milwaukee clinched the NL Central title — and a first-round bye — on Sunday. Given that the stakes are much higher for the Padres, they’re favoured over Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.

Check out my Brewers vs. Padres SGP predictions for Sept. 22, featuring a prop bets on Fernando Tatis Jr. and Christian Yelich.

Brewers vs. Padres predictions

Parlay: Padres under 3.5 runs | Tatis under 1.5 bases | Yelich over 0.5 hits (+285)

Padres under 3.5 runs (-114): This could be a hangover game for the Brewers, who were popping bottles in St. Louis yesterday.

But one man I don’t expect to be hurting is Peralta, as he looks to put a bow on his strongest season yet.

The right-hander’s 2.65 ERA and 5.4 bWAR are the best of his eight-year career. He also leads the NL in wins (17), if you’re into that sort of thing.

And from August onward, Peralta has been the most dominant version of himself on the mound:

• 8 starts
• 1.43 ERA
• 12.5 K/9

In that span, Peralta has allowed one or zero runs seven times. His opponents’ average full-game total is 2.6 runs.

Back in June, Peralta held the Padres to one hit over 6.0 scoreless innings. Their lineup is just 8-for-64 (.125) with 24 strikeouts against him.

San Diego has also gone under a 3.5-run total in eight of its past 12 games.

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More SGP picks

Tatis under 1.5 total bases (-177): Tatis hasn’t been able to crack the code against Peralta yet, albeit in a small sample. Still, I want to fade the leadoff man in this matchup.

In his past meetings with Peralta, Tatis is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts and a 60.0% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s a lot of incorrect guesses from the three-time all-star.

This is as much a way to back Peralta as it is to fade Tatis, but the under on this prop has been hitting at a decent rate lately.

In his past 20 games, Tatis has gone under 1.5 bases 12 times.

Yelich over 0.5 hits (-186): We’ll need to see the lineup first to know if Yelich is even playing, as veterans sometimes get a recovery day following a playoff-clinching celebration.

Given that Yelich was off Sunday, though, I expect him to slot back in.

The designated hitter is 15-6 vs. this prop in his past 21 starts, batting .287 in that span. Not otherworldly, but pretty darn good.

He also has a solid history against Padres starter Nick Pivetta, batting 6-for-16 with two homers and two doubles.

Yelich is batting .296 since the start of August, and his .293 xBA indicates that that’s not a fluke.

Brewers vs. Padres predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.

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