Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 26: Fade Guerrero vs. Houser, bet the under on total runs

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays embark on their final regular-season series, with the Tampa Bay Rays in town for a three-game set.

The pregame narrative: Toronto controls its own destiny in the AL East, but only a tiebreaker separates the Jays from the New York Yankees for a first-round bye. Shane Bieber starts on Friday after being pushed back a day.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 26, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Brandon Lowe and Adrian Houser.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129)

I’m going with unders only in today’s predictions, starting with a slugger in a power outage.

Guerrero was blazing hot to begin September, with 17 hits in his first seven games. Only five of those went for extra bases, though, so he was clearing his bases prop on volume more than anything.

Since then, his bat has really cooled off. Check out his production over the past 15 games:

  • 12-for-56 (.214)
  • .232 SLG
  • 1 extra-base hit

Guerrero doesn’t have an extra-base hit since Sept. 7. And it’s been three full weeks since he hit a home run.

Now he faces Tampa Bay’s Houser, a pitch-to-contact guy who excels at coaxing soft contact and ground balls. Houser has an 82nd-percentile barrel rate and an 80th-percentile ground ball rate, per Baseball Savant.

Guerrero isn’t much of a strikeout candidate against Houser, but if he fails to get any lift-off on the ball, this under will be very much in play.

Key stat: Guerrero is 1-for-11 with a walk, a strikeout and zero extra-base hits vs. Houser.

Embed: #118379

Jays prop predictions

Parlay: Lowe under 1.5 bases, Houser under 3.5 Ks (+138): Both of these props are priced in the -170 to -190 range, which is shorter than I tend to recommend as a standalone. So why not put them together?

  • Lowe has gone under 1.5 total bases in 11 of his past 17 games. He’s batting .217 with a .639 OPS in that span.
  • Lowe has gone 1-for-10 with six strikeouts and a walk vs. Bieber. Also, Bieber has been extremely tough on left-handed batters so far this season, holding them to a .127/.167/.190 slash line.

As for Houser, he’s coming off back-to-back starts in which he tallied just two strikeouts apiece (over 12.0 innings).

A 3.5-strikeout line is very low, but I faded Boston starter Brayan Bello at that number yesterday and cashed.

Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors (17.7%), after all. And the Jays’ active lineup has a 9.8% K rate against Houser in 82 plate appearances.

Under 8 runs (-107): Toronto’s offence sprang to life a little bit on Thursday in a 6-1 win, but the bats have been awfully quiet in recent games.

  • Over the past three weeks, the Jays have collectively batted .226 with a 77 wRC+ (24th in MLB).
  • This under is 12-5-2 in that span.

Both starters have sub-3.60 ERAs and sub-4.00 FIPs, so there’s competence on both sides.

In their head-to-head matchups this season, Toronto and Tampa Bay have gone under this total in six of 10 games. The average total in their past seven matchups is 6.0 runs.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/26/2025.

Best NFL Week 4 prop bets: Look for Mahomes to thrive vs. Ravens, ride with Dart in first NFL start

NFL prop bets

Jaxson Dart will make his first NFL start on Sunday afternoon with an opportunity to flash the athleticism that helped make him a first-round NFL draftee.

The pregame narrative: Dart’s rushing yards prop is one of three markets I’m tapping into for Week 4 action. I also expect Patrick Mahomes to clear a passing yards total that he has consistently crested in his career against the Baltimore Ravens.

Check out my top Week 4 NFL prop bets, featuring New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson.

NFL prop bets: Week 4

Best bet: Mahomes over 238.5 passing yards (-118)

Knowing the talent Mahomes possesses, he’s often one of the most frustrating NFL players to watch.

We rarely see the three-time Super Bowl MVP truly unleashed these days. Is that a result of conservative play-calling? Personnel shortcomings? Something else?

I’m not here to fully dissect the issue, but I will say that Mahomes is on track to get one of his best weapons back on Sunday. So that should help.

Xavier Worthy logged a full practice to start the week, which is a great indication that he’ll return.

The speedy second-year wideout, who had five or more catches in each of his final eight games last season, was injured just three snaps into the Chiefs’ season opener.

After throwing for 258 yards in Week 1, Mahomes finished below this yardage prop in both games without Worthy.

KC still isn’t at full strength without Rashee Rice, but getting Worthy back is a step in the right direction.

Baltimore’s defence ranks 21st in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. Last year, Mahomes completed 20 of 28 passes against the Ravens for 291 yards.

Key stat: Mahomes is the NFL record holder in passing yards per game (287.1). Even in his career-worst season last year, Mahomes averaged 242.5 yards and went 12-7 vs. this prop.

Best NFL picks

Johnson over 4.5 receptions (-134): Against opposing tight ends, Buffalo has allowed NFL lows in receiving yards (32) and receptions (five).

Johnson, meanwhile, has at least five catches and 45 yards in all three of New Orleans’ games.

One of these sides will have to break its trend. Why am I riding with Johnson?

  • Johnson has been central to the Saints’ offensive plans. He ranks first among NFL tight ends in routes run (103) and second in targets (29). He’s also in the 97th percentile of all pass-catchers in team target share (24.1%), per RotoWire.
  • The game script should be on Johnson’s side. Buffalo is a 15.5-point favourite on Sunday, which means the Saints should need to air it out in an attempt to keep up. If the Bills play prevent defence, underneath looks to Johnson can help this bet cash.

Entering 2025, Johnson had never previously averaged north of 3.0 receptions per game. This might not last forever, but he’s balling out and deserves a high volume of looks.

Dart over 34.5 rushing yards (-118): We’re flying a bit blind on this one, given that Dart has never started at the NFL level.

But the 2025 first-rounder had a couple of designed runs in the past two weeks, which suggests to me that the Giants are comfortable letting him use his legs.

Maybe this number seems a bit high for an NFL rookie with no proven track record, but Dart’s final collegiate season paints a different picture.

  • The Ole Miss graduate averaged 37.9 rushing yards last year, even with sack yards counting against his total.
  • He cashed this bet in 8 of his final 11 games while averaging 10.2 attempts.

Dart doesn’t have blistering speed like Lamar Jackson, but he moves well and should rely on his mobility when he starts to feel pressure on Sunday.

NFL prop bets made at 4:07 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

Best NFL Week 4 prop bets: Look for Mahomes to thrive vs. Ravens, ride with Dart in first NFL start

NFL prop bets

Jaxson Dart will make his first NFL start on Sunday afternoon with an opportunity to flash the athleticism that helped make him a first-round NFL draftee.

The pregame narrative: Dart’s rushing yards prop is one of three markets I’m tapping into for Week 4 action. I also expect Patrick Mahomes to clear a passing yards total that he has consistently crested in his career against the Baltimore Ravens.

Check out my top Week 4 NFL prop bets, featuring New Orleans Saints tight end Juwan Johnson.

NFL prop bets: Week 4

Best bet: Mahomes over 236.5 passing yards (-114)

Knowing the talent Mahomes possesses, he’s often one of the most frustrating NFL players to watch.

We rarely see the three-time Super Bowl MVP truly unleashed these days. Is that a result of conservative play-calling? Personnel shortcomings? Something else?

I’m not here to fully dissect the issue, but I will say that Mahomes is on track to get one of his best weapons back on Sunday. So that should help.

Xavier Worthy logged a full practice to start the week, which is a great indication that he’ll return.

The speedy second-year wideout, who had five or more catches in each of his final eight games last season, was injured just three snaps into the Chiefs’ season opener.

After throwing for 258 yards in Week 1, Mahomes finished below this yardage prop in both games without Worthy.

KC still isn’t at full strength without Rashee Rice, but getting Worthy back is a step in the right direction.

Baltimore’s defence ranks 21st in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. Last year, Mahomes completed 20 of 28 passes against the Ravens for 291 yards.

Key stat: Mahomes is the NFL record holder in passing yards per game (287.1). Even in his career-worst season last year, Mahomes averaged 242.5 yards and went 12-7 vs. this prop.

Embed: #118370

Best NFL picks

Johnson over 4.5 receptions (-125): Against opposing tight ends, Buffalo has allowed NFL lows in receiving yards (32) and receptions (five).

Johnson, meanwhile, has at least five catches and 45 yards in all three of New Orleans’ games.

One of these sides will have to break its trend. Why am I riding with Johnson?

  • Johnson has been central to the Saints’ offensive plans. He ranks first among NFL tight ends in routes run (103) and second in targets (29). He’s also in the 97th percentile of all pass-catchers in team target share (24.1%), per RotoWire.
  • The game script should be on Johnson’s side. Buffalo is a 15.5-point favourite on Sunday, which means the Saints should need to air it out in an attempt to keep up. If the Bills play prevent defence, underneath looks to Johnson can help this bet cash.

Entering 2025, Johnson had never previously averaged north of 3.0 receptions per game. This might not last forever, but he’s balling out and deserves a high volume of looks.

Dart over 34.5 rushing yards (-112): We’re flying a bit blind on this one, given that Dart has never started at the NFL level.

But the 2025 first-rounder had a couple of designed runs in the past two weeks, which suggests to me that the Giants are comfortable letting him use his legs.

Maybe this number seems a bit high for an NFL rookie with no proven track record, but Dart’s final collegiate season paints a different picture.

  • The Ole Miss graduate averaged 37.9 rushing yards last year, even with sack yards counting against his total.
  • He cashed this bet in 8 of his final 11 games while averaging 10.2 attempts.

Dart doesn’t have blistering speed like Lamar Jackson, but he moves well and should rely on his mobility when he starts to feel pressure on Sunday.

NFL prop bets made at 4:07 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

NFL Week 4 staff best bets: Bet on Rams to end Colts’ perfect season, Caleb Williams to stay hot

NFL Week 4 best bets

Our staff’s Week 4 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and two prop bets.

The Week 4 narrative: The Los Angeles Rams blew a 19-point lead last week and have the chance to bounce back at home. They’re one of two teams featured in this week’s best bets. On the prop market, look to fade Saquon Barkley against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Check out our NFL Week 4 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction on quarterback Caleb Williams.

NFL Week 4 best bets

These NFL Week 4 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Spencer Closs.

ATS picks

Rams -3.5 (-110): I can’t discredit the Colts much. They are 3-0 with a +47 point differential, but one knock against them is the quality of their opponents.

  • In Week 1, they beat the Dolphins by 25 points. In Week 3, they bashed the Titans by 21.
  • Indianapolis struggled against the Broncos, scratching out a 29-28 victory thanks to a second chance on a buzzer-beating field goal.

It’s safe to say Denver has been the Colts’ toughest competitor, and I’d argue that the Broncos are a tier below the Rams.

L.A. should probably be 3-0, too, but it blew a big lead to the defending champion Eagles last week.

Puka Nacua is shaping into an elite receiver, and the Rams thrive with their star in the lineup. They are 8-2 in their past 10 regular-season games with Nacua active, and they were Philly’s only real test in the 2024 playoffs.

I can’t help but feel the Colts are a bit overrated, so I’ll buy in on the Rams at home.

Best moneyline bet

Bears ML (-106): I know they’re on the road, but the Bears look like the better team. The Raiders have scored more than 20 points just once, and it came in last week’s 41-24 loss to the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

For Chicago, Caleb Williams is cooking as a sophomore:

  • 7 TD passes
  • 1 INT
  • 107.6 passer rating

Last week, he threw for four TDs with no turnovers. Chicago did play an awful Dallas defence, but it’s certainly something to build on.

Geno Smith has been decent, but his 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio is not very good. Plus, two of his TD passes came in garbage time last week when Las Vegas was already out of it.

The Raiders should struggle to keep pace with the Bears.

NFL Week 4 best bets: Player props

Barkley under 77.5 rushing yards (-110): Fading the reigning Offensive Player of the Year is risky business, but this is the time to do it.

  • The Buccaneers have held 11 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards.
  • In that span, the Bucs have limited their opponents to a measly 3.3 yards per carry.
  • Tampa’s defence ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate, per RBSDM.com.

Vita Vea is the ultimate run stopper, and Barkley has struggled to get things going on the ground this year anyway.

He is averaging 64.6 rushing yards per game at 3.3 YPC and is 1-2 against this line.

Williams over 236.5 passing yards (-118): Williams is coming off a career performance, completing 19-of-28 passes for 298 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over the Cowboys.

There’s no excuse for Williams to take a step back against the Raiders on Sunday.

Vegas’ defence ranks 27th in EPA per pass and has let two of three opposing QBs clear this total. The outlier was Washington Commanders backup Marcus Mariota, but he still put up 207 yards on 15-of-21 passing.

Rome Odunze looks like a stud, and DJ Moore still has WR1 upside. That duo should terrorize Pete Carroll’s secondary.

NFL Week 4 best bets made at 2:19 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

College football Week 5 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on USC vs. Illinois, BYU vs. Colorado

College football picks Week 5

I’m backing two favourites and picking one over for this week’s college football best bets.

The pregame narrative: The unbeaten USC Trojans hit the road this week to put their stellar offensive start to the test. Elsewhere, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs can add some legitimacy to their strong start in a road matchup against the UTEP Miners.

Check out the best college football picks for Week 5, featuring an over/under pick for the BYU Cougars vs. Colorado Buffaloes matchup.

College football picks Week 5

Best bet: USC -6.5 (-110)

It’s a tough ask for No. 21 USC to fly to the Midwest for a noon ET kickoff.

That’s really my only concern with this pick. And to me, that’s not enough of a reason to steer clear.

This will be the fourth consecutive week where the Trojans are alternating between the West Coast and the Midwest. That’s just the reality now for many Big Ten programs.

So far, USC has handled itself just fine.

All four of the Trojans’ games have turned into wins by 14+ points. They’d be 3-1 ATS if not for a 75-yard touchdown in garbage time last week by Michigan State.

Saturday’s road date against No. 23 Illinois will easily be USC’s toughest test yet, but it’s not like all four of its games came against doormats.

USC dominated Michigan State and Purdue, both of whom rank in the top 75 in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. Notably, Illinois is 75th on the nose in that metric.

The only real test for the Illini was last week against the now-No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers … and that was a bludgeoning.

Indiana outgained Illinois 579-161 and won by 53 points. In that game, the Illini lost six defensive backs due to injury or ejection. And they were already missing all-conference safety Xavier Scott.

Look for USC to run up a big score off the arm of quarterback Jayden Maiava, who leads the nation in yards per attempt (12.7) and per completion (18.0).

Key stat: USC ranks No. 1 in NCAA Division I in offensive success rate and EPA per play. Illinois is outside the top 35 in both categories.

Full NCAAF betting markets

More NCAAF best bets

BYU/Colorado over 48.5 points (-134): No. 25 BYU has a quarterback with a pristine TD-to-INT ratio and a tailback who’s averaging 8.6 yards per carry. That’ll play.

The Cougars moved on from Jake Retzlaff this offseason but haven’t skipped a beat. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS, averaging north of 40.0 points per game.

BYU’s defence has only allowed 16 points so far. But with a cupcake slate featuring East Carolina, Stanford and Portland State (FCS), that isn’t much to boast about.

I expect the Colorado Buffaloes to put up some points after a terrific showing from QB Kaidon Salter last week. The Liberty transfer was benched in Week 3 but responded well last Saturday, throwing for 304 yards and three TDs on 28 attempts.

Colorado has scored 20+ points in all four of its games. The average total in those matchups was 49.5 points.

Full NCAAF betting markets

Louisiana Tech -3.5 (-110): One way to put yourself on the map as a lesser-known program is to hang tough against a top-tier team. Louisiana Tech did that last earlier this month with a 23-7 loss at No. 4 LSU.

The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS, with three wins of 10+ points as favourites.

UTEP, in fairness, also has a quality loss, as the saying goes (27-10 at No. 10 Texas). But the Miners followed that up by losing at home last week as -5.5 favourites.

Louisiana Tech has covered or pushed this spread in each of the past three seasons vs. UTEP.

I like where the Bulldogs and their dual-threat quarterback, Blake Baker, are at right now.

College football picks made at 4:30 p.m. on 09/23/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 25: Fade Bello, buy in on to Guerrero bounce back

Blue Jays picks

The scuffling Toronto Blue Jays look to get back in the win column in Thursday night’s series finale against the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: Toronto dropped the first two games of this series, and its two-game AL East lead vanished in the process. The Jays will start Louis Varland in a bullpen game in hopes of snapping a 1-6 skid.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 25 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop bets on Brayan Bello, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Masataka Yoshida.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Bello under 3.5 Ks (-106)

My colleague Spencer Closs faded Garrett Crochet’s strikeouts prop yesterday and cashed, so let’s go back to that well with Bello on the mound.

Crochet’s line (6.5) was nearly double what Bello is projected for, but they are different types of pitchers. Crochet leads the AL with an 11.2 K/9, while Bello’s K/9 sits at a paltry 6.7.

  • Bello has been particularly light on strikeouts this month, accruing just 13 Ks over four starts. He’s 2-2 vs. this prop, but both overs landed on exactly four Ks.
  • Toronto has seen plenty of Bello, which should be a boon for the lineup. The Jays have a 20.0 K% against him in 145 plate appearances. For context, the average K rate this year is 22.1%.
  • Bello has a 13th-percentile whiff rate and a 17th-percentile strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

Toronto will be a tough matchup for Bello in the strikeout department, and not just because they know the right-hander well.

The Jays have the lowest K rate in the majors (17.7%), the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) and the highest contact rate on out-of-zone pitches.

After Crochet went 8.0 innings last night, the Red Sox have a rested bullpen. They could opt for a quick hook on Bello, which would only serve to lessen his strikeout opportunities.

Key stat: Bello had just one strikeout in his lone start vs. the Blue Jays this season (6.0 IP, eight hits, three runs).

Jays prop predictions

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+110): Guerrero is 0-for-6 in this series, but his track record against Bello has me interested in buying a turnaround.

  • Guerrero is 11-for-27 (.407) with two home runs and four doubles vs. Bello.
  • Vladdy is 7-3 against this prop in Bello’s 10 career starts when facing Toronto.

After batting 21-for-41 (.512) in his first 10 games this month, Guerrero is 7-for-41 (.171) in his past 11. It’s time for the pendulum to swing back the other way.

Guerrero still boasts a 100th-percentile xBA (.320) and a 93rd-percentile xSLG (.530).

Yoshida over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+105): I was a day early backing Yoshida to notch an RBI in Tuesday’s series opener. He had an RBI double and a solo homer last night.

That continued a torrid stretch for the cleanup hitter, who still has value on both of these prop markets Thursday.

Yoshida is batting .406 over his past eight games, notching six multi-hit performances. He’s 7-1 vs. this prop in that span.

With a sub-.400 SLG on the season, I don’t expect this hot streak to last for long. But while it’s here, I think these are playable prices to back the designated hitter.

Blue Jays picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

College football Week 5 parlay predictions: Bet on Penn State’s Kaytron Allen, take South Carolina ML

College football predictions

The biggest college football matchup in a loaded Saturday slate features No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State, and I’ve got a prop bet from that game in my +338 Week 5 parlay.

The pregame narrative: Kaytron Allen’s senior season with the Penn State Nittany Lions is off to a great start, and I’m expecting that to continue. Elsewhere, the South Carolina Gamecocks should be counted on to beat the Kentucky Wildcats for a fourth straight year.

Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 5, featuring an ATS pick on the Virginia Tech Hokies vs. NC State Wolfpack game.

College football predictions: Week 5 parlay

Parlay: Allen over 68.5 rushing yards | NC State -6.5 | South Carolina ML (+338)

Allen over 68.5 rushing yards (-117): For four years, Allen and Nicholas Singleton have formed a two-headed monster in Penn State’s backfield.

It can be frustrating to bet on a tailback with split duties. But there’s a long track record of Allen thriving in this role.

  • Allen has rushed for 5.3 yards/carry in his four-year career.
  • He’s 26-19 vs. this yardage prop line.
  • From his sophomore year onward, Allen has averaged 71.3 rush yards/game.

Oregon’s defence hasn’t really been tested yet, but it tends to thrive more against the pass than against the run.

Last year, according to Game On Paper, the Ducks’ defence ranked 18th in EPA per dropback and 109th in EPA per rush. So far this year, they’re 14th vs. the pass and 54th vs. the run.

Allen has churned for 8.0 yards per attempt in 2025. There should be plenty of opportunities for both him and Singleton, as usual.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

NCAAF parlay picks

NC State -6.5 (-165): Virginia Tech dusted Wofford (FCS) last week, but that doesn’t make up for the the Hokies’ brutal start against NCAA Division I opponents.

  • The Hokies have already lost twice by 19+ points as home favourites.
  • Overall, they’re 0-4 ATS with a -56 point differential against FBS schools.

Now they’re up against a Wolfpack team that has covered this number in three of four games on the season. That includes both matchups at home.

NC State has topped the 30-point mark in three of four games without a cupcake non-FBS program in the mix.

Behind ACC leading rusher Daylan Smothers, look for the Wolfpack to pick up a convincing win at home.

South Carolina ML (-215): I faded South Carolina last week due to the uncertainty of whether LaNorris Sellers (concussion) would play. The Gamecocks lost as sizeable road underdogs at Missouri, but Sellers was superb.

The redshirt sophomore quarterback threw for 302 yards and two TDs against a quality Mizzou defence. He’s averaging 10.0 yards per attempt this season (ninth in D-I).

Sellers was believed by many to be a Heisman frontrunner entering the season. With the Gamecocks sitting at 2-2, he has some work to do, but the playmaking ceiling is high.

South Carolina is 3-0 vs. Kentucky over the previous three seasons, including a 31-6 road win (led by Sellers) last season.

College football predictions made at 1:10 p.m. on 09/25/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and predictions Sept. 25: Fade Bello, buy in on to Guerrero bounce back

Blue Jays picks

The scuffling Toronto Blue Jays look to get back in the win column in Thursday night’s series finale against the Boston Red Sox.

The pregame narrative: Toronto dropped the first two games of this series, and its two-game AL East lead vanished in the process. The Jays will start Louis Varland in a bullpen game in hopes of snapping a 1-6 skid.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for the Sept. 25 game at Rogers Centre, featuring prop bets on Brayan Bello, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Masataka Yoshida.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Bello under 3.5 Ks (-115)

My colleague Spencer Closs faded Garrett Crochet’s strikeouts prop yesterday and cashed, so let’s go back to that well with Bello on the mound.

Crochet’s line (6.5) was nearly double what Bello is projected for, but they are different types of pitchers. Crochet leads the AL with an 11.2 K/9, while Bello’s K/9 sits at a paltry 6.7.

  • Bello has been particularly light on strikeouts this month, accruing just 13 Ks over four starts. He’s 2-2 vs. this prop, but both overs landed on exactly four Ks.
  • Toronto has seen plenty of Bello, which should be a boon for the lineup. The Jays have a 20.0 K% against him in 145 plate appearances. For context, the average K rate this year is 22.1%.
  • Bello has a 13th-percentile whiff rate and a 17th-percentile strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

Toronto will be a tough matchup for Bello in the strikeout department, and not just because they know the right-hander well.

The Jays have the lowest K rate in the majors (17.7%), the lowest whiff rate (21.5%) and the highest contact rate on out-of-zone pitches.

After Crochet went 8.0 innings last night, the Red Sox have a rested bullpen. They could opt for a quick hook on Bello, which would only serve to lessen his strikeout opportunities.

Key stat: Bello had just one strikeout in his lone start vs. the Blue Jays this season (6.0 IP, eight hits, three runs).

Embed: #118355

Jays prop predictions

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+108): Guerrero is 0-for-6 in this series, but his track record against Bello has me interested in buying a turnaround.

  • Guerrero is 11-for-27 (.407) with two home runs and four doubles vs. Bello.
  • Vladdy is 7-3 against this prop in Bello’s 10 career starts when facing Toronto.

After batting 21-for-41 (.512) in his first 10 games this month, Guerrero is 7-for-41 (.171) in his past 11. It’s time for the pendulum to swing back the other way.

Guerrero still boasts a 100th-percentile xBA (.320) and a 93rd-percentile xSLG (.530).

Yoshida over 1.5 bases (+128), over 0.5 RBI (+170): I was a day early backing Yoshida to notch an RBI in Tuesday’s series opener. He had an RBI double and a solo homer last night.

That continued a torrid stretch for the cleanup hitter, who still has value on both of these prop markets Thursday.

Yoshida is batting .406 over his past eight games, notching six multi-hit performances. He’s 7-1 vs. his bases prop and 6-2 vs. this RBI prop in that span.

With a sub-.400 SLG on the season, I don’t expect this hot streak to last for long. But while it’s here, I think these are playable prices to back the designated hitter.

Blue Jays picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 09/25/2025.

College football Week 5 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on USC vs. Illinois, BYU vs. Colorado

College football picks Week 5

I’m backing two favourites and picking one over for this week’s college football best bets.

The pregame narrative: The unbeaten USC Trojans hit the road this week to put their stellar offensive start to the test. Elsewhere, the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs can add some legitimacy to their strong start in a road matchup against the UTEP Miners.

Check out the best college football Week 5 picks, featuring an over/under pick for the BYU Cougars vs. Colorado Buffaloes matchup.

College football picks Week 5

Best bet: USC -6.5 (-115)

It’s a tough ask for No. 21 USC to fly to the Midwest for a noon ET kickoff.

That’s really my only concern with this pick. And to me, that’s not enough of a reason to steer clear.

This will be the fourth consecutive week where the Trojans are alternating between the West Coast and the Midwest. That’s just the reality now for many Big Ten programs.

So far, USC has handled itself just fine.

All four of the Trojans’ games have turned into wins by 14+ points. They’d be 3-1 ATS if not for a 75-yard touchdown in garbage time last week by Michigan State.

Saturday’s road date against No. 23 Illinois will easily be USC’s toughest test yet, but it’s not like all four of its games came against doormats.

USC dominated Michigan State and Purdue, both of whom rank in the top 75 in adjusted EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. Notably, Illinois is 75th on the nose in that metric.

The only real test for the Illini was last week against the now-No. 11 Indiana Hoosiers … and that was a bludgeoning.

Indiana outgained Illinois 579-161 and won by 53 points. In that game, the Illini lost six defensive backs due to injury or ejection. And they were already missing all-conference safety Xavier Scott.

Look for USC to run up a big score off the arm of quarterback Jayden Maiava, who leads the nation in yards per attempt (12.7) and per completion (18.0).

Key stat: USC ranks No. 1 in NCAA Division I in offensive success rate and EPA per play. Illinois is outside the top 35 in both categories.

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More college football best bets

BYU/Colorado over 47 points (-110): No. 25 BYU has a quarterback with a pristine TD-to-INT ratio and a tailback who’s averaging 8.6 yards per carry. That’ll play.

The Cougars moved on from Jake Retzlaff this offseason but haven’t skipped a beat. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS, averaging north of 40.0 points per game.

BYU’s defence has only allowed 16 points so far. But with a cupcake slate featuring East Carolina, Stanford and Portland State (FCS), that isn’t much to boast about.

I expect the Colorado Buffaloes to put up some points after a terrific showing from QB Kaidon Salter last week. The Liberty transfer was benched in Week 3 but responded well last Saturday, throwing for 304 yards and three TDs on 28 attempts.

Colorado has scored 20+ points in all four of its games. The average total in those matchups was 49.5 points.

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Louisiana Tech -4 (-110): One way to put yourself on the map as a lesser-known program is to hang tough against a top-tier team. Louisiana Tech did that last earlier this month with a 23-7 loss at No. 4 LSU.

The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS, with three wins of 10+ points as favourites.

UTEP, in fairness, also has a quality loss, as the saying goes (27-10 at No. 10 Texas). But the Miners followed that up by losing at home last week as -5.5 favourites.

Louisiana Tech has covered or pushed this spread in each of the past three seasons vs. UTEP.

I like where the Bulldogs and their dual-threat quarterback, Blake Baker, are at right now.

College football picks made at 4:30 p.m. on 09/23/2025.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals Week 4 Thursday Night Football picks: Trey Benson should thrive, but take Seattle on the moneyline

Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks

We’ve got an NFC West pick’em to open NFL Week 4 action on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Either the Seattle Seahawks or Arizona Cardinals will move to 3-1 following this game in the desert. The Seahawks swept the season series last year, and a key injury on the Cardinals’ side shifts the landscape a bit for this game.

Check out my Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks for Thursday Night Football Week 4 on Sept. 25, featuring a prop bet on Trey Benson.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks

Best Bet: Benson over 18.5 receiving yards (-120)

It’s time for the Cardinals to see what they’ve got in Benson.

A Day 2 pick in last year’s draft, Benson has been a clear backup behind veteran running back James Conner so far. But now that Conner is done for the year with an ankle injury, Benson’s opportunities should skyrocket.

Conner sustained his injury on Arizona’s first drive of the second half on Sunday. From that point onward, Benson had seven touches and 39 scrimmage yards.

Extrapolated over a full game, I expect Benson to see 15 touches or more. After all, he had 13 total in Week 3 despite being in a timeshare for half of the game.

Seattle has been superb at stopping the run so far, but RBs are finding tons of daylight in the receiving game.

  • The Seahawks’ defence ranks 8th in rush success rate and 4th in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com
  • Through three games, Seattle has allowed the second-most receptions (22) and the most receiving yards (234) to opposing RBs.

Benson has 11 targets so far, which leads Arizona’s RB room. Emari Demercado is the only other healthy tailback who’s been targeted, but he failed to bring in the lone pass thrown his way.

The Cardinals like checking down to their RBs, and Benson should have an excellent opportunity to capitalize on that Thursday.

Key stat: Arizona running backs have a 23.9% team target share, per Fantasy Pros, which is the seventh-highest in the NFL. The Cardinals’ WR target share (37.5%) is dead last.

Who will win Thursday Night Football?

Seahawks moneyline (-120): Both teams are 2-1 with a close loss to the 49ers, so I get why this game is a pick’em.

But I prefer Seattle’s side of the coin for a few reasons:

  • The Seahawks went 2-0 vs. the Cardinals last year, winning both games by 10+ points.
  • After losing to San Francisco in Week 1, Seattle responded by winning its past two games by 14+ points (including a win in Pittsburgh as an underdog).
  • Seattle is 8-1 SU on the road since the start of last season.

The Seahawks could be getting some reinforcements on defence as two-time Pro Bowler Devon Witherspoon and 2025 second-rounder Nick Emmanwori opened the week as limited participants in practice. Neither has played since Week 1.

Losing Conner might be a plus for Benson’s opportunities, but it’s a negative for Arizona.

And the Cardinals’ one-score wins over the Saints and Panthers aren’t compelling in my eyes.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals picks made at 4:55 p.m. ET 09/23/2025.