Jordan Horrobin

A pair of division winners do battle in the Pacific Northwest tonight, as the Seattle Mariners host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have already locked in their playoff seedings, so there’s nothing of note to play for. It’s still a marquee matchup, though, with Tyler Glasnow and Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Check out these Dodgers vs. Mariners SGP predictions for Sept. 27, featuring Shohei Ohtani and Josh Naylor.

Dodgers vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Ohtani over 1.5 total bases | Naylor over 0.5 hits | Under 8.5 runs (+295)

Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (-134): I hate betting against Ohtani, but this is a playable number with Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Ohtani walks a lot and strikes out a lot, and both of those things are good for this under.

Against Gilbert, Ohtani is 4-for-15 (.267) with seven strikeouts and five walks.

Seattle’s right-hander has 37 plate appearances against the rest of the Dodgers lineup and hasn’t walked anyone. He tries to be avoidant around Ohtani, and I totally understand that.

Ohtani is waltzing to his fourth MVP award in five seasons. He’s averaging 2.4 total bases per game.

One titanic swing can ruin this, but I’m riding with the under based on a history against Gilbert that works in my favour.

Also, Ohtani has gone under 1.5 bases in 18 of his past 32 games.

Embed: #118432

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

MLB SGP legs

Naylor over 0.5 hits (-195): As a standalone wager, I’d be looking hard at Naylor over 1.5 bases for tonight. He’s on a serious heater, and the +150 price point jumps off the page.

For this SGP, though, I’ll go with the safer route of one hit. Naylor is batting .364 this month and is 18-3 vs. this prop.

He’s also on a 12-game hit streak, which has been a thing of beauty:

• 19-for-44 (.432)
• 10.4 K%
• 4.2 BB%

Naylor has a 90th-percentile strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant, so his low K% during this streak isn’t much of a surprise. The low walk rate is nice to see, too, since walks don’t help with this prop.

Against Glasnow, Naylor is 1-for-3 in his career.

Under 8.5 runs (-180): Both teams have potent offences, but I like this under with two stellar pitchers on the mound.

• Both Glasnow and Gilbert have sub-3.50 ERAs and sub-3.90 FIPs.

• This under is 8-4 in Gilbert’s 12 starts since the all-star break.

• This under is 10-7 in Glasnow’s starts this season (and three of the overs finished with exactly nine runs).

The Dodgers average 5.1 runs per game, which is the second-highest total in MLB, but they tend to play low-scoring games on the road. Unders are 43-33-1 in L.A.’s road games this season.

Last night’s series opener finished as a 3-2 win for the Dodgers.

Dodgers vs. Mariners predictions made at 11:15 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Still clinging to the slightest of advantages in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday in the penultimate game of the regular season.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won on Friday, but the New York Yankees held serve in their matchup elsewhere, meaning these teams are separated only by a tiebreaker. Trey Yesavage, who starts today for the Jays, carved up Tampa Bay’s lineup earlier this month in his MLB debut.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays for Sept. 27, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Yandy Diaz.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best bet: Diaz over 0.5 runs (+110)

Yesavage posted a 52.8% whiff rate when he faced the Rays the first time around, which was the highest mark for any Jays starter since that stat was first tracked in 2009 (according to Sportsnet).

But you know who wasn’t fooled against the big right-hander? Diaz.

The 1B/DH went 2-for-2 with a double and a walk against Yesavage. He reached base all three times without a single swing-and-miss.

Diaz is having a heck of a month for Tampa Bay, so we’re also catching him at a good time:

• 22 games
• 16 runs
• .397 BA
• 1.059 OPS
• 16.1 BB%
• 10.8 K%

Diaz is typically around league average in terms of walk rate, but he’s been more patient this month. That’s part of the reason I prefer the over on his runs prop rather than total bases (+102).

According to Baseball Savant, Diaz ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA (.296) and hard-hit rate (52.3%).

Key stat: Diaz has scored a run in 15 of his past 29 games.

Embed: #118430

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Jays prop predictions

Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-124): The Rays were seeing Yesavage for the first time when he debuted on Sept. 15, and he left them guessing time after time.

Toronto’s rookie right-hander finished with nine strikeouts over 5.0 innings of one-run ball. That’s how you justify a late-season call-up to a contending club.

Last time out, Yesavage only had two strikeouts over 4.0 innings. But that was against the Royals, who have the second-lowest K rate in the majors at 18.3% (Tampa has the ninth-highest K rate, 23.0%).

I wouldn’t bank on Yesavage posting nine strikeouts again today, but getting just over halfway there should be doable. Remember, he had the Rays in knots last time.

On Sept. 15, Yesavage garnered 19 whiffs, which was the second-highest total for a Blue Jays starter all season.

Guerrero under 1.5 total bases (-129): I faded Guerrero on this market — at this exact price — yesterday. And I don’t mind running it back based on how little power he’s displayed in recent weeks.

Including yesterday, here’s what Guerrero has done offensively since Sept. 10:

• .217 BA
• .233 SLG
• 1 extra-base hit
• Under 1.5 bases in 13 of 16 games

It’s been more than three weeks since Vladdy went yard. He still has a 100th-percentile xBA (.317), but the power numbers aren’t following right now.

Guerrero also takes a lot of free passes, with an 87th-percentile walk rate. I’d consider fading him until further notice.

Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.