Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

College football Week 6 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, Duke vs. Cal

The unbeaten Vanderbilt Commodores are involved in one of the marquee college football matchups in Week 6, as they hit the road to face the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The pregame narrative: Vanderbilt shocked the world with an upset win over Alabama last season, but the Commodores are still double-digit underdogs in the rematch. Later on, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are sizeable road favourites against the Houston Cougars in a battle of unbeatens.

Check out the best college football Week 6 picks, featuring an ATS pick for the Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears matchup.

College football picks Week 6

Best bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-112)

College GameDay is pulling up to Tuscaloosa for No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama this week.

That would’ve seemed preposterous a couple of years ago, but Vandy’s football program has risen to heights rarely seen before. The 16th-ranked Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008.

Vandy has also scored 50+ points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1915.

The program’s turnaround began in earnest against Alabama last season. On Oct. 5, 2024, unranked Vanderbilt was a 23-point home underdog against No. 1 Alabama, but the Commodores came away with a stunning 40-35 win.

Vanderbilt went on to beat Auburn and Kentucky, lose close against Texas, and claim a bowl victory for just the fourth time since the mid-1950s.

With Diego Pavia back under centre for the Commodores, expectations were certainly raised. Pavia leads the SEC in passing TDs (13) and passer rating (184.6) to fuel Vandy’s dominant start.

Alabama did earn a massive road win last week against Georgia, but the Crimson Tide were shut out in the second half. I’m not sold on their ability to pull away on Saturday.

Vanderbilt ranks seventh in NCAA Division I in net EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. Alabama is 19th in that category.

The Commodores already have two outright wins as road underdogs this season, and this is a lot of points to give them.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS (7-5 SU) as an underdog.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

More college football best bets

Texas Tech -11.5 (-112): The Red Raiders and Cougars are both 4-0 entering this matchup, but they aren’t considered equals.

Texas Tech ranks inside the top 20 in success rate on both sides of the ball. Houston is 35th in defensive success rate and 131st in offensive success rate (out of 136 schools).

Texas Tech is 3-0 ATS vs. Houston since the 2021 season, covering this number in two of those games.

Houston is unranked, while Texas Tech is the No. 11 team in the country.

Houston’s offence struggles to stay ahead of the sticks, and I expect Texas Tech to capitalize on that weakness.

Through four games, Houston ranks 129th in the country in offensive EPA per play on early downs. On the flip side, Texas Tech’s defence allows the fifth-lowest EPA per play on early downs.

The Red Raiders and Cougars have faced one common opponent, Oregon State, and the results from their respective matchups are telling.

Texas Tech won dominantly, 45-14, while Houston needed overtime for a 27-24 victory.

Full NCAAF betting markets

Cal +3 (-112): Cal got embarrassed a couple of weeks ago, getting shut out as a 14-point favourite on the road against San Diego State. But the Golden Bears responded really well.

Last Saturday, playing as 6.5-point underdogs at Boston College, they stole a 28-24 win in the closing minutes:

MASON MINI, OH MY🤯@JaronKeawe connects with @MasonMini4 to give the Bears the lead!

📺 https://t.co/h5x4ITfQqF #SmartAndTough #GoBears pic.twitter.com/iOxH8GeniC
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) September 27, 2025

Now Cal is back home, where it’ll host a Blue Devils squad that hasn’t yet ventured west of the central time zone. That should work in the Bears’ favour.

Cal is 3-2 ATS this season, which includes a 2-0 ATS mark as an underdog.

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is the ACC leader in passing yards and TDs, so he’ll be tough to slow down. But Cal’s defence ranks 22nd in EPA per pass, so I’m hoping they’ll be up to the task.

College football picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 09/30/2025.

MLB wild-card Game 1 best bets: Bet the over for Padres vs. Cubs, look for Jose Ramirez to rake

All four MLB wild-card series begin on Tuesday, and I’ve got plays from three of them.

The pregame narrative: As is typically the case when the playoffs begin, the projected run totals for today’s games are quite low. I’ve got the over in one game and the under in another, along with a prop bet on Jose Ramirez.

Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 1 action on Sept. 30, including an over/under prediction for the San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs matchup.

MLB wild-card best bets

Best bet: Reds/Dodgers under 7 runs (-106)

If the Cincinnati Reds are going to have any shot at shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers, Hunter Greene will need to shove.

Based on how he’s fared all season, and especially in September, I like Greene’s chances of quieting the Dodgers’ potent lineup.

In five starts this month, Greene has a 2.64 ERA, a .152 opponent BA and an 11.2 K/9.

He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 19 starts on the season.

This under has cashed or pushed in 11 of Greene’s 19 starts.

Greene sits at 99 mph with his fastball, and he works off that with a slider that has a 46.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the ninth-highest whiff rate of any qualified pitch this season.

It’s nasty stuff that can keep any lineup guessing.

L.A. guessed right more than I would’ve liked when Greene last pitched in this matchup, as he yielded five runs (three earned) over 5.0 innings in one of his worst starts of the year.

Even so, this total pushed as the Reds were held scoreless in a 7-0 loss.

Cincinnati’s hapless offence is just as key to this wager as Greene’s excellence. The Reds have a .694 OPS as a team this month, which is the second-worst among all playoff clubs — ahead of only the Tigers.

On the season, Cincinnati posted a 92 wRC+ (24th in MLB).

Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) starts for the Dodgers. He has a 2.09 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 in his past eight outings.

Key stat: Cincinnati’s active lineup is just 5-for-48 (.104) with 12 strikeouts against Snell.

More wild-card predictions

Padres/Cubs over 7 runs (-106): This will be the third time Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta square off this season, and I think that familiarity works in the favour of the hitters.

Both lineups already have solid numbers against these pitchers, too.

Padres vs. Boyd: 19-for-68 (.279), .412 SLG, 17.6 K%

Cubs vs. Pivetta: 32-for-106 (.302), .491 SLG, 27.4 K%

San Diego and Chicago are both swinging the bats well lately, which certainly doesn’t hurt. They rank seventh and fourth, respectively, in wRC+ over the past 30 days.

Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+115): Tarik Skubal is a menacing opponent for any hitter, but Ramirez has managed to put together plenty of good at-bats in this matchup.

The switch-hitting third baseman is 12-for-36 with a triple and three doubles vs. Skubal.

This will be Ramirez’s third time seeing Skubal in less than two weeks. In the two previous games, he went 2-for-5 with a walk.

Ramirez enters with a .301/.393/.548 slash line over his past 25 games. He’s 13-12 vs. this prop in that span.

At this price, J-Ram has value to stay hot.

MLB wild-card best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.

MLB wild-card Game 1 best bets: Bet the over for Padres vs. Cubs, look for Jose Ramirez to rake

All four MLB wild-card series begin on Tuesday, and I’ve got plays from three of them.

The pregame narrative: As is typically the case when the playoffs begin, the projected run totals for today’s games are quite low. I’ve got the over in one game and the under in another, along with a prop bet on Jose Ramirez.

Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 1 action on Sept. 30, including an over/under prediction for the San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs matchup.

MLB wild-card best bets

Best bet: Reds/Dodgers under 7 runs (-112)

If the Cincinnati Reds are going to have any shot at shocking the Los Angeles Dodgers, Hunter Greene will need to shove.

Based on how he’s fared all season, and especially in September, I like Greene’s chances of quieting the Dodgers’ potent lineup.

In five starts this month, Greene has a 2.64 ERA, a .152 opponent BA and an 11.2 K/9.

He has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of 19 starts on the season.

This under has cashed or pushed in 11 of Greene’s 19 starts.

Greene sits at 99 mph with his fastball, and he works off that with a slider that has a 46.9% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. That’s the ninth-highest whiff rate of any qualified pitch this season.

It’s nasty stuff that can keep any lineup guessing.

L.A. guessed right more than I would’ve liked when Greene last pitched in this matchup, as he yielded five runs (three earned) over 5.0 innings in one of his worst starts of the year.

Even so, this total pushed as the Reds were held scoreless in a 7-0 loss.

Cincinnati’s hapless offence is just as key to this wager as Greene’s excellence. The Reds have a .694 OPS as a team this month, which is the second-worst among all playoff clubs — ahead of only the Tigers.

On the season, Cincinnati posted a 92 wRC+ (24th in MLB).

Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (5-4, 2.35 ERA) starts for the Dodgers. He has a 2.09 ERA and an 11.4 K/9 in his past eight outings.

Key stat: Cincinnati’s active lineup is just 5-for-48 (.104) with 12 strikeouts against Snell.

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More wild-card predictions

Padres/Cubs over 7 runs (-112): This will be the third time Matthew Boyd and Nick Pivetta square off this season, and I think that familiarity works in the favour of the hitters.

Both lineups already have solid numbers against these pitchers, too.

Padres vs. Boyd: 19-for-68 (.279), .412 SLG, 17.6 K%

Cubs vs. Pivetta: 32-for-106 (.302), .491 SLG, 27.4 K%

San Diego and Chicago are both swinging the bats well lately, which certainly doesn’t hurt. They rank seventh and fourth, respectively, in wRC+ over the past 30 days.

Ramirez over 1.5 total bases (+140): Tarik Skubal is a menacing opponent for any hitter, but Ramirez has managed to put together plenty of good at-bats in this matchup.

The switch-hitting third baseman is 12-for-36 with a triple and three doubles vs. Skubal.

This will be Ramirez’s third time seeing Skubal in less than two weeks. In the two previous games, he went 2-for-5 with a walk.

Ramirez enters with a .301/.393/.548 slash line over his past 25 games. He’s 13-12 vs. this prop in that span.

At this price, J-Ram has value to stay hot.

MLB wild-card best bets made at 9:37 a.m. ET on 09/30/2025.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 1 wild-card SGP predictions: Fade Judge, look for Crochet to carve up New York in series opener

The most storied rivalry in MLB will be renewed this week, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in the wild-card round.

The pregame narrative: Boston got the better of New York during the regular season, but the Yankees finished five games ahead in the standings and will host this best-of-three series. Tuesday’s Game 1 is a battle of bona fide aces, with Max Fried and Garrett Crochet on the mound.

Check out my +410 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 1, featuring Aaron Judge.

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Fried over 5.5 Ks | Crochet over 6.5 Ks | Judge under 1.5 bases | Red Sox +1.5 (+410)

Fried over 5.5 strikeouts (-143): Fried has been exactly the type of frontline pitcher the Yankees wanted to invest in this offseason, and his results against the Red Sox in 2025 are indicative of that:

June 15: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 9 K
Aug. 22: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 7 K
Sept. 13: 5.1 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 6 K

Fried is 3-0 vs. this prop and has a 1.96 ERA against the Red Sox this season. He’s certainly earned this Game 1 start.

Boston has the 10th-highest strikeout rate in the majors (22.9%), and it’s even higher against Fried (26.8% in 97 plate appearances).

Fried is 19-13 vs. this prop market overall in 2025, and the Red Sox are a plus matchup for him at this number.

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MLB SGP legs

Crochet over 6.5 Ks (-265): Crochet has absolutely carved up the Yankees. There’s no other way to say it.

The left-hander has racked up 45 Ks in just 114 plate appearances against New York’s active lineup, as well as a 34.4% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant. For context, the league-average whiff rate is 25.3%.

Crochet is 4-0 vs. this Ks total when facing the Yankees this year. He’s averaged 9.8 Ks per outing in that span.

Crochet paced the majors in strikeouts (255) and was the AL leader in K/9 (11.2). He’s at the pinnacle of the sport in strikeout volume and efficiency.

Betting the over on 7.5 Ks at -130 looks solid for a standalone play, but I’ll shave off one strikeout to be a bit safer in the SGP.

Boston’s fireballer went 23-9 vs. a 6.5-strikeout prop this season.

Judge under 1.5 total bases (-152): Aside from a couple of mistakes, Crochet has kept Judge muzzled at the plate.

Judge, the two-time MLB home run king, has homered twice off Crochet. But overall, the slugger is just 3-for-15 with 11 strikeouts and a disastrous 61.8% whiff rate.

Guys like Judge and Shohei Ohtani are dangerous to fade in this market, but when the right matchup comes around, it can be worthwhile.

And though I don’t think there’s a lot of stickiness that ties Judge’s 2024 postseason results to now, I do want to point out that he struggled quite a bit last fall:

.184 BA
31.3 K%
Under 1.5 bases in 10 of 14 games

Red Sox vs. Yankees run line prediction

Red Sox +1.5 (-205): The Yankees are favoured to win Game 1 and the series, but I think Boston can at least keep this one close.

The Red Sox are 9-4 with a +15 run differential against the Yankees this season.

With Crochet on the mound, Boston went 4-0 vs. New York. Also, the Red Sox are 7-0 in Crochet’s past seven starts.

Against a +1.5 run line, the Red Sox are 28-4 with Crochet on the mound this season. That’s preposterously good.

New York has home-field advantage, but I view Boston’s visitor status as a plus for this pick. The Red Sox are guaranteed to bat nine times, so maybe they can scratch something across in the ninth if they’re down by multiple runs.

Boston is 40-22 ATS (64.5%) as an underdog this year, according to Team Rankings.

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 1:36 p.m. on 09/29/2025.

MLB Game 1 wild-card schedule and betting odds: Matchups for start of postseason Sept. 30

It’s not quite October yet, but MLB postseason action has arrived.

The latest: The wild-card round begins on Tuesday with a four-pack of games starting at 1:08 p.m. ET. These are best-of-three series, which means some teams will be sent home in a blink.

Check out the latest MLB wild-card schedule and odds for the Game 1 matchups.

MLB wild-card schedule notes

For most of the season, the Detroit Tigers led the AL Central and were positioned to clinch a bye. But their 11-game division lead as of Sept. 4 whittled away to nothing in the closing weeks, thanks in part to an 87 wRC+ in the final month (dead last among playoff teams).

The Cleveland Guardians helped their cause by going 5-1 vs. Detroit in the final two weeks of the season to steal the division title. Game 1 will feel like a must-win for the Tigers with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on the mound.

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs split their matchups this season, 3-3. Both teams went 2-1 at home against each other. San Diego posted a 7-1 record down the stretch and will start Nick Pivetta, who has a 2.38 ERA in 15 starts since July.

The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is nearly as old as baseball itself, and it’ll add another postseason chapter this week. Game 1 features a pair of new faces in the rivalry, as Garrett Crochet starts opposite Max Fried.

Crochet’s Red Sox went 4-0 vs. the Yankees in his first year with the club. As for Fried, he posted a 1.96 ERA in three starts vs. Boston but saw extremely limited run support. New York is 8-1 in Fried’s past nine starts overall, though.

Which team is a more surprising entrant to the wild-card round: the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Cincinnati Reds squad that was playing sub-.500 baseball as recently as Sept. 16?

This is easily the most lopsided wild-card series on paper, but anything can happen in a span of three games. The Reds went 8-3 down the stretch to steal a playoff spot, but they were just 1-5 vs. the Dodgers during the regular season.

Game 1 wild-card matchups: Sept. 30

Visit all of NorthStar Bets’ MLB markets. Click on game odds to bet now.

Detroit Tigers (-167) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+137)
Start time: 11:08 a.m. MT
Over/Under: 6 runs

San Diego Padres (-106) vs. Chicago Cubs (-112)
Start time: 1:08 p.m. MT
Over/Under: 7 runs

Boston Red Sox (+115) vs. New York Yankees (-138)
Start time: 4:08 p.m. MT
Over/Under: 7 runs

Cincinnati Reds (+165) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-200)
Start time: 7:08 p.m. MT
Over/Under: 7 runs

MLB Game 1 wild-card schedule and betting odds: Matchups for start of postseason Sept. 30

It’s not quite October yet, but MLB postseason action has arrived.

The latest: The wild-card round begins on Tuesday with a four-pack of games starting at 1:08 p.m. ET. These are best-of-three series, which means some teams will be sent home in a blink.

Check out the latest MLB wild-card schedule and odds for the Game 1 matchups.

MLB wild-card schedule notes

For most of the season, the Detroit Tigers led the AL Central and were positioned to clinch a bye. But their 11-game division lead as of Sept. 4 whittled away to nothing in the closing weeks, thanks in part to an 87 wRC+ in the final month (dead last among playoff teams).

The Cleveland Guardians helped their cause by going 5-1 vs. Detroit in the final two weeks of the season to steal the division title. Game 1 will feel like a must-win for the Tigers with reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on the mound.

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs split their matchups this season, 3-3. Both teams went 2-1 at home against each other. San Diego posted a 7-1 record down the stretch and will start Nick Pivetta, who has a 2.38 ERA in 15 starts since July.

The Red Sox/Yankees rivalry is nearly as old as baseball itself, and it’ll add another postseason chapter this week. Game 1 features a pair of new faces in the rivalry, as Garrett Crochet starts opposite Max Fried.

Crochet’s Red Sox went 4-0 vs. the Yankees in his first year with the club. As for Fried, he posted a 1.96 ERA in three starts vs. Boston but saw extremely limited run support. New York is 8-1 in Fried’s past nine starts overall, though.

Which team is a more surprising entrant to the wild-card round: the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers, or a Cincinnati Reds squad that was playing sub-.500 baseball as recently as Sept. 16?

This is easily the most lopsided wild-card series on paper, but anything can happen in a span of three games. The Reds went 8-3 down the stretch to steal a playoff spot, but they were just 1-5 vs. the Dodgers during the regular season.

Game 1 wild-card matchups: Sept. 30

Visit all of NorthStar Bets’ MLB markets. Click on game odds to bet now.

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians

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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs

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Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

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Bengals vs. Broncos Week 4 Monday Night Football picks: Take Denver to cover, Dobbins to run wild

In the second half of this week’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals.

The pregame narrative: Denver is a 7.5-point favourite against a Cincinnati squad that looked lost on the road last week. J.K. Dobbins has scored in every game so far with his new team and should be a factor in the running game again.

Check out my Bengals vs. Broncos picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Sept. 29.

Bengals vs. Broncos picks

Best Bet: Dobbins over 59.5 rushing yards (-118)

There’s a clear-cut RB1 in Denver, and it’s not R.J. Harvey.

After the Broncos selected Harvey in the second round of the 2025 draft, many thought he could ascend to the top of the depth chart.

And maybe Harvey’s time will come, but for now, Dobbins has a stronghold on the primary role in Denver’s backfield.

Dobbins has out-touched Harvey, 45-18. In the running game, Dobbins has had at least nine more carries than Harvey in every matchup.

Dobbins has had a 55% snap share, while Harvey’s snap share is just 30%.

It’s been a frustrating, injury-riddled career so far for Dobbins, but he finally put together a mostly healthy season in 2024. Over 13 games with the Chargers, he rushed for 905 yards and nine TDs.

Through three games with the Broncos, Dobbins is on a full-season pace of 1,258 rushing yards. He has also scored in each game.

Over the past two weeks, the Bengals have coughed up 5.3 yards per rush to the Jaguars and Vikings. Both of their starting running backs cashed this bet.

Dobbins is coming off his best game with Denver (11 carries, 83 yards, one TD) and should exceed this fairly modest line.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Dobbins has averaged 70.4 rushing yards/game.

Other Monday Night Football picks

Broncos -7.5 (-106): I expect Denver’s pressure-packed defence to torment Jake Browning at home in prime time.

The Broncos have the highest pressure rate in the NFL (39.2%), according to Sports Reference. They’re tied for the NFL lead with 12 sacks.

Browning was consistently flustered last week in a 48-10 road loss against the Vikings. They sacked him three times and forced two interceptions.

Obviously, Cincinnati is a much different team without Joe Burrow under centre. Denver covered this number in its first home game of the season, and I expect that to happen again.

Bengals vs. Broncos picks made at 3:09 p.m. ET 09/27/2025.

Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 Monday Night Football picks: Mason Taylor, Jaylen Waddle have value in receiving game

Someone is probably going to get into the win column when the Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Both AFC East squads are 0-3 so far, but things have looked particularly grim for the Dolphins. In fairness, New York and Miami both covered as road underdogs last week as a way to show some sign of life.

Check out my Jets vs. Dolphins picks for the first Monday Night Football matchup of a doubleheader on Sept. 29.

Jets vs. Dolphins picks

Best Bet: Mason Taylor over 2.5 receptions (+115)

It can be easy to get wrapped up in coach-speak, but I’m going to drink the Kool-Aid a bit on this one.

Speaking to reporters this week, Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said this about the team’s plan for rookie tight end Mason Taylor:

“To do everything we can to try and get him more involved. He’s a dynamic player for us, and when the ball gets in his hands, even when the ball is not in his hands, he makes plays for us … But he’s a guy that we all recognize needs to get the ball.”

Taylor’s target volume has grown each week: 1, 2 and 6. Last Sunday, he caught four passes for 18 yards.

While I’m sure the Jets would want more explosiveness out of Taylor’s opportunities, I’m just focused on the volume of opportunities.

The jump in targets for Taylor came with Tyrod Taylor under centre for the Jets, and with Justin Fields likely returning, that could be a cause for concern. But Glenn’s comments affirm to me that the young TE should stay involved.

Miami’s pass defence has been the worst in the league, which also helps.

The Dolphins’ defence ranks 32nd in both EPA per dropback and pass success rate, per RBSDM.com.

Key stat: A tight end has cashed this bet in all three games vs. the Dolphins. All told, Miami has allowed an average of 7.7 targets and 6.0 receptions to opposing tight ends per game.

Other Monday Night Football picks

Jets +3 (-120): This is an ugly matchup between winless teams, and when that happens, I typically like to take the side that’s getting points.

New York has covered this number in two of its three losses and went 2-0 ATS vs. Miami last year.

I’m completely out on the Dolphins until they give me a reason to think otherwise. They’re dead last in defensive EPA per play, and their -41 point differential is markedly worse than New York’s (-24).

Miami was favoured in its first home game of the year and lost by six against New England.

Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions (-106): Waddle has cashed this bet in back-to-back games, and now he’ll face a team that he tends to ball out against.

In seven career games vs. the Jets, Waddle has averaged 6.4 catches and 75.9 yards on 8.0 targets.

He’s 3-0 vs. this prop when facing New York at home. Last season, he had nine catches for 99 yards against the Jets at Hard Rock Stadium.

Miami has been the worst pass defence in the NFL so far, but New York isn’t too far behind.

The Jets’ defence is 30th in EPA per dropback while allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.

Jets vs. Dolphins picks made at 3 p.m. ET 09/27/2025.

Bengals vs. Broncos Week 4 Monday Night Football picks: Take Denver to cover, Dobbins to run wild

In the second half of this week’s Monday Night Football doubleheader, the Denver Broncos host the Cincinnati Bengals.

The pregame narrative: Denver is a 7.5-point favourite against a Cincinnati squad that looked lost on the road last week. J.K. Dobbins has scored in every game so far with his new team and should be a factor in the running game again.

Check out my Bengals vs. Broncos picks for the Monday Night Football matchup on Sept. 29.

Bengals vs. Broncos picks

Best Bet: Dobbins over 65.5 rushing yards (-115)

There’s a clear-cut RB1 in Denver, and it’s not R.J. Harvey.

After the Broncos selected Harvey in the second round of the 2025 draft, many thought he could ascend to the top of the depth chart.

And maybe Harvey’s time will come, but for now, Dobbins has a stronghold on the primary role in Denver’s backfield.

Dobbins has out-touched Harvey, 45-18. In the running game, Dobbins has had at least nine more carries than Harvey in every matchup.

Dobbins has had a 55% snap share, while Harvey’s snap share is just 30%.

It’s been a frustrating, injury-riddled career so far for Dobbins, but he finally put together a mostly healthy season in 2024. Over 13 games with the Chargers, he rushed for 905 yards and nine TDs.

Through three games with the Broncos, Dobbins is on a full-season pace of 1,258 rushing yards. He has also scored in each game.

Over the past two weeks, the Bengals have coughed up 5.3 yards per rush to the Jaguars and Vikings. Both of their starting running backs cashed this bet.

Dobbins is coming off his best game with Denver (11 carries, 83 yards, one TD) and should exceed this fairly modest line.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Dobbins has averaged 70.4 rushing yards/game.

Embed: #118449

Other Monday Night Football picks

Broncos -7.5 (-112): I expect Denver’s pressure-packed defence to torment Jake Browning at home in prime time.

The Broncos have the highest pressure rate in the NFL (39.2%), according to Sports Reference. They’re tied for the NFL lead with 12 sacks.

Browning was consistently flustered last week in a 48-10 road loss against the Vikings. They sacked him three times and forced two interceptions.

Obviously, Cincinnati is a much different team without Joe Burrow under centre. Denver covered this number in its first home game of the season, and I expect that to happen again.

Bengals vs. Broncos picks made at 2:19 p.m. ET 09/27/2025.

Jets vs. Dolphins Week 4 Monday Night Football picks: Mason Taylor, Jaylen Waddle have plus-money value in receiving game

Someone is probably going to get into the win column when the Miami Dolphins host the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Both AFC East squads are 0-3 so far, but things have looked particularly grim for the Dolphins. In fairness, New York and Miami both covered as road underdogs last week as a way to show some sign of life.

Check out my Jets vs. Dolphins picks for the first Monday Night Football matchup of a doubleheader on Sept. 29.

Jets vs. Dolphins picks

Best Bet: Mason Taylor over 2.5 receptions (+125)