Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

MLB wild-card Game 3 best bets: Bet on Darvish, Early to exceed their strikeout props

It’s the final day of MLB’s wild-card round, and we’ve got three do-or-die games on tap.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got plays from all three matchups, starting with a prop bet on Cleveland’s Brayan Rocchio. Later on, Yu Darvish looks to build on his strong career numbers against the Chicago Cubs, which should help keep the game total low.

Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 3 action on Oct. 2, including a prop bet on Boston’s Connelly Early.

MLB wild-card best bets

Best bet: Darvish over 3.5 Ks (-112)

This is a classic postseason baseball prop line, sitting comfortably below what Darvish would be seeing during the regular season.

Truncated workloads are always a risk for starters in the playoffs, and a quick hook could be in play here. But if Darvish is pitching well, I think he can stick around long enough to cash this bet.

The veteran right-hander began the year on the injured list and proceeded to post career-worst marks in ERA (5.38) and K/9 (8.5).

In fairness, a lot of that damage came in his first handful of post-IL outings. Over his final 11 starts, Darvish had a 4.23 ERA and a 9.3 K/9.

He also has great numbers against the Cubs’ active lineup:

102 plate appearances
26 Ks (25.5 K%)
.194 opponent BA
.280 SLG

Darvish has gone over this number in 10 of his past 11 starts, and he had nine Ks in 8.0 innings vs. the Cubs last season. If he can at least get into the fourth inning, he’ll have a chance.

Key stat: The Cubs have struck out 24 times in just 62 postseason plate appearances so far, equating to the highest K rate of the playoffs (38.7%).

More wild-card predictions

Early over 3.5 Ks (-110): The same workload-related caution with Darvish applies to Early, too. And I’d expect the leash to be even shorter for a guy who’s making just his fifth MLB start.

But Early is downright nasty, and the Yankees haven’t faced him yet. They aren’t going to like what they see.

The 6-foot-3 left-hander sits at 94 mph and has a myriad of other pitches to go with it.

MLB’s average whiff rate is 25.3%, according to Baseball Savant, and five of Early’s six pitches are above that.

Through 19.1 IP as a big-leaguer, Early has 29 Ks and is 4-0 vs. this prop.

The Yankees had the sixth-highest K rate in the majors during the regular season (23.5%).

Padres/Cubs under 7.5 runs (-110): San Diego and Chicago combined for just seven total runs in Games 1 and 2 of this series, and I think we’re in for another rock fight in the deciding matchup.

Darvish, as mentioned, has held the Cubs’ lineup to a sub-.200 BA and a sub-.300 SLG in 102 plate appearances.

On the other side, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has finished the season on fire. He had a 1.57 ERA from August onward, and this under went 5-1 in those games.

If Darvish falters, the Padres’ league-best bullpen is there to back him up. Following the all-star break, San Diego’s relief corps had a league-best 2.87 ERA and 81.3% strand rate.

In the five Padres/Cubs matchups played at Wrigley Field this year, the average total is 6.8 runs.

Rocchio over 0.5 hits (-150): Rocchio was the Game 2 hero for the Guardians yesterday, clubbing a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning to force a rubber match.

The 24-year-old is a light-hitting shortstop who occasionally runs into one. I like his chances to scratch across another base knock today.

Rocchio is 3-for-9 with a double and a walk against Tigers starter Jack Flaherty.

Rocchio is a switch-hitter who has fared better from the left side this season (.236 BA, compared to a .224 BA from the right side). He’s also been better at home (.250) than on the road (.217).

Dating back to last year, Rocchio now has 1+ hits in 9 of 12 postseason starts.

MLB wild-card best bets made at 12:17 p.m. ET on 10/02/2025.

NFL Week 5 staff best bets: Bet on Lions to roll Bengals, Justin Fields to produce as a passer

Our staff’s Week 5 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and a prop bet.

The Week 5 narrative: Things are not looking good in Cincinnati, and now the Bengals face a Detroit Lions team firing on all cylinders. Also, Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants hit the road as enticing underdogs in New Orleans.

Check out our NFL Week 5 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction on New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields.

NFL Week 5 best bets

These NFL Week 5 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Jordan Horrobin.

ATS picks

Lions -10.5 (-106): Cincinnati has utterly imploded since losing Joe Burrow to injury, and I can’t imagine things getting better against a red-hot Detroit team that plays whistle-to-whistle.

The Bengals have been outscored 76-13 over their last two games. Now, they face a squad averaging 41.3 PPG during a three-game winning streak.

Just take a look at what each team’s offence has done in Weeks 3 and 4:

Cincinnati: 13 points, 330 total yards
Detroit: 72 points, 703 total yards

The Lions will put up a boatload of points — that’s a given. I just can’t see Cincinnati finding the end zone enough to make this match competitive.

Buccaneers +3.5 (-112): Styles make fights, and I think this matchup bodes well for Tampa Bay.

The Seahawks have the second-highest rush play percentage in the NFL (53.02%).

The Buccaneers have held opponents to the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (85.0) at the second-lowest yards per carry (3.3).

Tampa’s defence also ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate. It has held 12 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards.

I have to put some respect on Sam Darnold’s name for a hot start, but he’s beaten up on a trio of underhwhelming defences (Steelers, Saints, Cardinals).

Things won’t come as easily against Tampa, and I trust Baker Mayfield to keep his offence (which admittedly has some injury problems) cooking.

Dart, Giants have value as underdogs

Giants moneyline (+110): Dart didn’t have the prettiest day as a passer in his NFL debut, but he mixed in 54 yards and a TD on the ground to help fuel an upset win over the Chargers.

The New Orleans Saints’ defence ranks 29th in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com, so they should be easier for Dart to operate against.

And the Cam Skattebo/Dart combo in the running game has flashed plenty of promise.

New Orleans is 0-4 and ranks in the bottom five in scoring on both sides of the ball. Having home-field advantage is nice, but the Saints don’t deserve to be favoured.

The Giants’ loaded defensive line should make Spencer Rattler uncomfortable in this matchup. New York ranks fourth in QB knockdown rate (12.5%), per Sports Reference.

NFL Week 5 best bets: Player props

Fields over 1.5 passing TDs (+190): This is oozing with value. Though Fields isn’t known as a pocket passer, New York should be forced into an aerial attack against the Dallas Cowboys.

Dallas owns a top-five scoring offence and a bottom-five scoring defence.

After trading Micah Parsons, the Cowboys’ defence ranks 27th in pass rush win rate and fourth in run stop win rate.

Dallas has allowed 10 passing touchdowns in its last three games, with each quarterback (Russell Wilson, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love) comfortably clearing this number.

Fields should be asked to throw the ball plenty in a matchup with serious shootout potential.

NFL Week 5 best bets made at 12:09 p.m. ET on 10/02/2025.

MLB wild-card Game 3 best bets: Bet on Darvish, Early to exceed their strikeout props

It’s the final day of MLB’s wild-card round, and we’ve got three do-or-die games on tap.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got plays from all three matchups, starting with a prop bet on Cleveland’s Brayan Rocchio. Later on, Yu Darvish looks to build on his strong career numbers against the Chicago Cubs, which should help keep the game total low.

Check out my MLB wild-card best bets for Game 3 action on Oct. 2, including a prop bet on Boston’s Connelly Early.

MLB wild-card best bets

Best bet: Darvish over 3.5 Ks (-122)

This is a classic postseason baseball prop line, sitting comfortably below what Darvish would be seeing during the regular season.

Truncated workloads are always a risk for starters in the playoffs, and a quick hook could be in play here. But if Darvish is pitching well, I think he can stick around long enough to cash this bet.

The veteran right-hander began the year on the injured list and proceeded to post career-worst marks in ERA (5.38) and K/9 (8.5).

In fairness, a lot of that damage came in his first handful of post-IL outings. Over his final 11 starts, Darvish had a 4.23 ERA and a 9.3 K/9.

He also has great numbers against the Cubs’ active lineup:

102 plate appearances
26 Ks (25.5 K%)
.194 opponent BA
.280 SLG

Darvish has gone over this number in 10 of his past 11 starts, and he had nine Ks in 8.0 innings vs. the Cubs last season. If he can at least get into the fourth inning, he’ll have a chance.

Key stat: The Cubs have struck out 24 times in just 62 postseason plate appearances so far, equating to the highest K rate of the playoffs (38.7%).

Embed: #118626

More wild-card predictions

Early over 3.5 Ks (-129): The same workload-related caution with Darvish applies to Early, too. And I’d expect the leash to be even shorter for a guy who’s making just his fifth MLB start.

But Early is downright nasty, and the Yankees haven’t faced him yet. They aren’t going to like what they see.

The 6-foot-3 left-hander sits at 94 mph and has a myriad of other pitches to go with it.

MLB’s average whiff rate is 25.3%, according to Baseball Savant, and five of Early’s six pitches are above that.

Through 19.1 IP as a big-leaguer, Early has 29 Ks and is 4-0 vs. this prop.

The Yankees had the sixth-highest K rate in the majors during the regular season (23.5%).

Padres/Cubs under 7.5 runs (-112): San Diego and Chicago combined for just seven total runs in Games 1 and 2 of this series, and I think we’re in for another rock fight in the deciding matchup.

Darvish, as mentioned, has held the Cubs’ lineup to a sub-.200 BA and a sub-.300 SLG in 102 plate appearances.

On the other side, Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has finished the season on fire. He had a 1.57 ERA from August onward, and this under went 5-1 in those games.

If Darvish falters, the Padres’ league-best bullpen is there to back him up. Following the all-star break, San Diego’s relief corps had a league-best 2.87 ERA and 81.3% strand rate.

In the five Padres/Cubs matchups played at Wrigley Field this year, the average total is 6.8 runs.

Rocchio over 0.5 hits (-143): Rocchio was the Game 2 hero for the Guardians yesterday, clubbing a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning to force a rubber match.

The 24-year-old is a light-hitting shortstop who occasionally runs into one. I like his chances to scratch across another base knock today.

Rocchio is 3-for-9 with a double and a walk against Tigers starter Jack Flaherty.

Rocchio is a switch-hitter who has fared better from the left side this season (.236 BA, compared to a .224 BA from the right side). He’s also been better at home (.250) than on the road (.217).

Dating back to last year, Rocchio now has 1+ hits in 9 of 12 postseason starts.

MLB wild-card best bets made at 10:17 a.m. ET on 10/02/2025.

Reds vs. Dodgers Game 2 wild-card SGP predictions: Hernandez, L.A. should close out at home

The defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers can advance to the NLDS with a win on Wednesday night over the Cincinnati Reds.

The pregame narrative: Cincinnati’s back is against the wall after a 10-5 loss last night at Dodger Stadium. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has already shut down the Reds once this year, and the Dodgers will look for him to do that again tonight.

Check out my +700 Reds vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring prop bets on Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler Stephenson.

Reds vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Dodgers -1.5 | Hernandez over 1.5 bases | Stephenson under 1.5 bases (+700)

Dodgers -1.5 (-138): The Dodgers’ dominance of the Reds continued on Tuesday night, and I expect the defending champs to close this one out in convincing fashion.

L.A. is 6-1 with a +20 run differential against Cincy this year. The Dodgers have covered a -1.5 run line in four straight meetings.

In Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s lone start vs. the Reds this season, he tossed 7.0 innings of one-run ball in a 5-2 win.

Yamamoto’s July 28 start against the Reds sparked a stellar run to close out the regular season. Over his final 10 outings, the right-hander posted a 2.10 ERA and a 10.8 K/9.

He only allowed three runs and 11 hits over his final 34.0 IP.

Cincinnati’s Zack Littell, meanwhile, posted a 4.39 ERA and a 6.9 K/9 in his final 10 outings of the season.

Offensively, the Reds entered the postseason with the worst wRC+ among NL playoff teams (92). The Dodgers (113 wRC+) rank first in that field.

L.A. simply overmatches Cincy in every facet and should get this done.

MLB SGP legs

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+125): Hernandez was a spark plug for L.A.’s offence last night, going 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs and four RBI.

One swing of the bat could easily cash this bet, especially against Littell, who had the second-highest HR/9 among 52 qualified pitchers (1.74).

Hernandez is 2-for-4 vs. Littell. The former Blue Jay is 8-9 vs. this prop in his past 17 games.

Littell is a great pitcher to target on bases props because his strikeout and walk numbers are low, while his contact quality allowed is high.

According to Baseball Savant, Littell ranks in the 98th percentile in walk rate, the 12th percentile in K rate and the 21st percentile in barrel rate.

Stephenson under 0.5 hits (-118): Stephenson has a seventh-percentile xBA (.226) and went hitless in 37 of 82 starts this year (45.1%).

Also, his 33.9% K rate is the fifth-highest among 277 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.

Stephenson went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts vs. Yamamoto this season in their lone matchup against each other.

Reds vs. Dodgers predictions as of 2:55 p.m. on 10/01/2025.

49ers vs. Rams TNF Week 5 SGP predictions: Bet on McCaffrey, Stafford in +325 parlay

In a battle of 3-1 divisional foes, the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Rams swept the home-and-home series last year and are favoured to win again at home. San Francisco is awaiting word on a laundry list of injuries leading up to the Week 5 kick-off.

Check out my 49ers vs. Rams same-game parlay predictions for Week 5 below, featuring Matthew Stafford and Christian McCaffrey.

49ers vs. Rams SGP predictions

SGP: Stafford 225+ passing yards | Rams -3.5 | McCaffrey 50+ rushing yards (+325)

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Stafford 225+ passing yards (-175): My best bet for Thursday is Puka Nacua over 95.5 receiving yards, and Stafford is obviously a beneficiary of Nacua’s excellence.

With the tandem of Nacua and three-time All-Pro Davante Adams, Stafford has some elite weapons to work with. And all of them feasted at home last week against the previously unbeaten Colts:

Stafford: 375 yards, 3 TDs, 123.5 rating
Nacua: 13 catches, 170 yards, 1 TD
Adams: 4 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD

The Rams have a bell cow tailback in Kyren Williams, so they don’t always need Stafford to put up huge numbers. But Stafford is at his best inside SoFi Stadium, and this is a very manageable yardage milestone for him.

In his past 10 home games, Stafford has averaged 256.7 passing yards with a 70.7% completion rate and a 99.6 rating.

He is 7-3 vs. this line in that span.

San Francisco’s defence ranks 17th in dropback success rate and 16th in EPA per dropback, according to RBSDM.com. Stafford can excel in this matchup.

Embed: #118605

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Rams -3.5 (-186): Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall all missed Monday’s practice for the 49ers. That’s not a great sign on a short week.

San Francisco’s injury report is more than twice as long as Los Angeles’ list. And with some key names in question for Thursday’s matchup, I think that puts the Niners at a distinct disadvantage.

On the flip side, the Rams are in a great spot right now. They’re at home for a second consecutive week after a 27-20 win over the Colts on Sunday.

L.A. is 7-3 ATS at home since the start of last season, and the team went 4-0 ATS against San Francisco in the 2023-24 seasons.

McCaffrey 50+ rushing yards (-215): McCaffrey has often struggled to stay healthy in the past, and as a result, he has only faced the Rams twice since joining the 49ers.

He did put up big numbers in both games, though:

Oct. 30, 2022: 94 rush yards, 2 TDs
Sept. 17, 2023: 116 rush yards, 1 TD

Against all odds, McCaffrey is the healthiest weapon on San Francisco’s offence right now. The Niners should lean on him Thursday, no matter how their final injury report shakes out.

McCaffrey is 3-1 vs. this yardage milestone, finishing with 49 yards in his lone outlier.

49ers vs. Rams predictions made at 2:34 p.m. on 10/01/2025.

Reds vs. Dodgers Game 2 wild-card SGP predictions: Hernandez, L.A. should close out at home

The defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers can advance to the NLDS with a win on Wednesday night over the Cincinnati Reds.

The pregame narrative: Cincinnati’s back is against the wall after a 10-5 loss last night at Dodger Stadium. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has already shut down the Reds once this year, and the Dodgers will look for him to do that again tonight.

Check out my +310 Reds vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring prop bets on Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler Stephenson.

Reds vs. Dodgers predictions

Parlay: Dodgers -1.5 | Hernandez over 1.5 bases | Stephenson under 1.5 bases (+310)

Dodgers -1.5 (-129): The Dodgers’ dominance of the Reds continued on Tuesday night, and I expect the defending champs to close this one out in convincing fashion.

L.A. is 6-1 with a +20 run differential against Cincy this year. The Dodgers have covered a -1.5 run line in four straight meetings.

In Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s lone start vs. the Reds this season, he tossed 7.0 innings of one-run ball in a 5-2 win.

Yamamoto’s July 28 start against the Reds sparked a stellar run to close out the regular season. Over his final 10 outings, the right-hander posted a 2.10 ERA and a 10.8 K/9.

He only allowed three runs and 11 hits over his final 34.0 IP.

Cincinnati’s Zack Littell, meanwhile, posted a 4.39 ERA and a 6.9 K/9 in his final 10 outings of the season.

Offensively, the Reds entered the postseason with the worst wRC+ among NL playoff teams (92). The Dodgers (113 wRC+) rank first in that field.

L.A. simply overmatches Cincy in every facet and should get this done.

Embed: #118596

MLB SGP legs

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+117): Hernandez was a spark plug for L.A.’s offence last night, going 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs and four RBI.

One swing of the bat could easily cash this bet, especially against Littell, who had the second-highest HR/9 among 52 qualified pitchers (1.74).

Hernandez is 2-for-4 vs. Littell. The former Blue Jay is 8-9 vs. this prop in his past 17 games.

Littell is a great pitcher to target on bases props because his strikeout and walk numbers are low, while his contact quality allowed is high.

According to Baseball Savant, Littell ranks in the 98th percentile in walk rate, the 12th percentile in K rate and the 21st percentile in barrel rate.

Stephenson under 1.5 total bases (-315): This leg bumps the SGP from +215 to +310, and to me, that’s a worthy lift.

The catcher has a seventh-percentile xBA (.226) and went under 1.5 bases in 51 of 82 starts this year (62.2%).

Also, his 33.9% K rate is the fifth-highest among 277 hitters with at least 300 plate appearances.

Stephenson went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts vs. Yamamoto this season in their lone matchup against each other.

I like Stephenson under 0.5 hits (-106) as a standalone, but this bases prop is merely a safer way to fade him.

Reds vs. Dodgers predictions as of 12:05 p.m. on 10/01/2025.

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Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 2 wild-card SGP predictions: Fade Duran, back Boston to cover alt run line in potential series clincher

After a narrow victory in Game 1, the Boston Red Sox have a chance on Wednesday to close out their best-of-three wild-card series against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Garrett Crochet dominated for the Red Sox last night, freeing up his team to use its bullpen in any way imaginable behind Brayan Bello. For the Yankees, Carlos Rodon takes the ball in hopes of extending the series to a third game on Thursday.

Check out my +400 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 2, featuring prop bets on Cody Bellinger and Jarren Duran.

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Bellinger to get a hit | Bello over 3.5 Ks | Duran under 1.5 bases | Red Sox +2.5 (+400)

Bellinger to get a hit (-177): In a parlay consisting of four juiced-up legs, this pick has the longest odds. Still, it’s a pretty reasonable ask.

Bellinger is 4-for-10 vs. Bello with two home runs and a walk.

Last night, Bellinger recorded a single in New York’s loss. He now has 1+ hits in 25 of his past 33 games.

In his first year as a Yankee, the former NLCS MVP thrived in his new home park. Bellinger posted a .302/.365/.544 slash line in 80 regular season games at Yankee Stadium.

Bello has a .264 xBA this year, per Baseball Savant, which ranks in the 25th percentile among pitchers.

Embed: #118591

MLB SGP legs

Bello over 3.5 Ks (-180): The main risk here is Bello’s workload, which could be curtailed with so many fresh arms in the bullpen.

But this is a low bar, and the matchup is enticing.

Bello has 4+ strikeouts in all three starts vs. the Yankees this season.

He has 41 Ks in 152 plate appearances against New York’s current lineup. That equates to a 27.0% K rate, which is well above league average (22.2%).

Bello’s outs prop is set at 14.5, which means there’s a fair chance he doesn’t get past the fifth inning. But he shouldn’t need to do that to get to four strikeouts anyway.

In Game 1, the Yankees struck out 13 times.

Duran under 1.5 total bases (-315): Duran struggles in lefty-on-lefty matchups, and we’ve already seen that play out against Rodon.

New York’s southpaw pitcher has held Duran to 2-for-16 batting with a double, a walk and five strikeouts.

Duran is hitless in seven at-bats vs. Rodon this year.

Against LHPs as a whole in 2025, Duran is batting .211 with a .600 OPS.

In Game 1, Duran batted seventh against left-hander Max Fried and went 0-for-4. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see him slotted somewhere low in the lineup again tonight.

Duran has gone under 1.5 bases in six of his past eight games.

Red Sox vs. Yankees run line prediction

Red Sox +2.5 (-286): As with Game 1, the Yankees are favoured to win tonight. But the Red Sox have been good enough in this matchup that I’m content to at least back them with some cushion.

Boston is 10-4 with a +17 run differential against New York this season.

Dating back to July 2024, the Red Sox are 4-1 in Bello’s starts vs. the Yankees. And the right-hander has a 2.45 ERA in those outings.

Rodon has been a better pitcher than Bello this season, but his numbers against the Red Sox are just so-so.

Boston scored 11 runs over 15.2 innings vs. Rodon this season, and he took the loss in two of his three starts.

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/01/2025.

College football Week 6 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Vanderbilt vs. Alabama, Duke vs. Cal

The unbeaten Vanderbilt Commodores are involved in one of the marquee college football matchups in Week 6, as they hit the road to face the Alabama Crimson Tide.

The pregame narrative: Vanderbilt shocked the world with an upset win over Alabama last season, but the Commodores are still double-digit underdogs in the rematch. Later on, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are sizeable road favourites against the Houston Cougars in a battle of unbeatens.

Check out the best college football Week 6 picks, featuring an ATS pick for the Duke Blue Devils vs. California Golden Bears matchup.

College football picks Week 6

Best bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110)

College GameDay is pulling up to Tuscaloosa for No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Alabama this week.

That would’ve seemed preposterous a couple of years ago, but Vandy’s football program has risen to heights rarely seen before. The 16th-ranked Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008.

Vandy has also scored 50+ points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1915.

The program’s turnaround began in earnest against Alabama last season. On Oct. 5, 2024, unranked Vanderbilt was a 23-point home underdog against No. 1 Alabama, but the Commodores came away with a stunning 40-35 win.

Vanderbilt went on to beat Auburn and Kentucky, lose close against Texas, and claim a bowl victory for just the fourth time since the mid-1950s.

With Diego Pavia back under centre for the Commodores, expectations were certainly raised. Pavia leads the SEC in passing TDs (13) and passer rating (184.6) to fuel Vandy’s dominant start.

Alabama did earn a massive road win last week against Georgia, but the Crimson Tide were shut out in the second half. I’m not sold on their ability to pull away on Saturday.

Vanderbilt ranks seventh in NCAA Division I in net EPA per play, according to Game On Paper. Alabama is 19th in that category.

The Commodores already have two outright wins as road underdogs this season, and this is a lot of points to give them.

Key stat: Since the start of last season, Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS (7-5 SU) as an underdog.

Full NCAAF betting markets

More college football best bets

Texas Tech -11.5 (-120): The Red Raiders and Cougars are both 4-0 entering this matchup, but they aren’t considered equals.

Texas Tech ranks inside the top 20 in success rate on both sides of the ball. Houston is 35th in defensive success rate and 131st in offensive success rate (out of 136 schools).

Texas Tech is 3-0 ATS vs. Houston since the 2021 season, covering this number in two of those games.

Houston is unranked, while Texas Tech is the No. 11 team in the country.

Houston’s offence struggles to stay ahead of the sticks, and I expect Texas Tech to capitalize on that weakness.

Through four games, Houston ranks 129th in the country in offensive EPA per play on early downs. On the flip side, Texas Tech’s defence allows the fifth-lowest EPA per play on early downs.

The Red Raiders and Cougars have faced one common opponent, Oregon State, and the results from their respective matchups are telling.

Texas Tech won dominantly, 45-14, while Houston needed overtime for a 27-24 victory.

Full NCAAF betting markets

Cal +3 (-110): Cal got embarrassed a couple of weeks ago, getting shut out as a 14-point favourite on the road against San Diego State. But the Golden Bears responded really well.

Last Saturday, playing as 6.5-point underdogs at Boston College, they stole a 28-24 win in the closing minutes:

MASON MINI, OH MY🤯@JaronKeawe connects with @MasonMini4 to give the Bears the lead!

📺 https://t.co/h5x4ITfQqF #SmartAndTough #GoBears pic.twitter.com/iOxH8GeniC
— Cal Football (@CalFootball) September 27, 2025

Now Cal is back home, where it’ll host a Blue Devils squad that hasn’t yet ventured west of the central time zone. That should work in the Bears’ favour.

Cal is 3-2 ATS this season, which includes a 2-0 ATS mark as an underdog.

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is the ACC leader in passing yards and TDs, so he’ll be tough to slow down. But Cal’s defence ranks 22nd in EPA per pass, so I’m hoping they’ll be up to the task.

College football picks made at 2:30 p.m. on 09/30/2025.

49ers vs. Rams Week 5 Thursday Night Football picks: Bet on Puka Nacua to stay hot, L.A. to cover

For the second time in as many weeks, it’s an all-NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Puka Nacua has been electric for the Los Angeles Rams through the first month, and he should continue to be a problem with the San Francisco 49ers in town. The Niners, who have a laundry list of injuries, are underdogs for the first time this season.

Check out my 49ers vs. Rams picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5 on Oct. 2, featuring a prop bet on Nacua and an ATS pick.

49ers vs. Rams picks

Best Bet: Nacua over 97.5 receiving yards (-118)

It’s rare to see a receiving yards line this high, but Nacua is a rare talent.

In 2023, Nacua set NFL rookie records in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486). He was even better on a per-game basis last year, but missed six games due to injury.

And now in Year 3, Nacua is raising the bar once again.

Through four games, Nacua has 42 catches and 503 yards.

It’s far too early to extrapolate, but that does put him on pace to be the first receiver to crest 2,000 yards.

Nacua has 8+ catches and 90+ yards in all four games. He’s 3-1 vs. this prop.

The BYU grad missed last year’s home matchup against the 49ers, but he carved them up as a rookie: 15 catches, 147 yards on 20 targets.

Altogether, Nacua is 1-2 vs. this prop when facing the 49ers, but he finished with exactly 97 yards in one of the unders.

San Francisco’s pass defence has been mediocre at best so far. According to RBSDM.com, the Niners’ defence ranks 17th in dropback success rate and 16th in EPA per dropback.

Key stat: Nacua already has six career games with 150+ receiving yards. Only two other wideouts had more through three seasons (Randy Moss, seven; Justin Jefferson, eight).

Thursday Night Football ATS pick

Rams -5.5 (-134): We’re already at a point in the season where injury report discrepancies can make a big difference. Especially on a short week.

The 49ers’ injury report was more than twice the length of the Rams’ list to open the week. Neither Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, nor Ricky Pearsall practiced on Monday to start the week.

Purdy, who missed Weeks 2 and 3 with a toe injury, played the full game in Week 4 (a home loss vs. the Jaguars). But by Sunday night, he said the toe was bothering him again.

Not practicing on the first of three days to open the week isn’t a great sign, obviously.

The Rams are 4-0 ATS against the Niners over the previous two seasons, winning three of those games straight up as underdogs.

L.A. downed the previously unbeaten Indianapolis Colts at home last week. The Rams are now 7-3 ATS at SoFi Stadium since the start of last season.

49ers vs. Rams picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET 09/30/2025.

49ers vs. Rams Week 5 Thursday Night Football picks: Bet on Puka Nacua to stay hot, L.A. to cover

For the second time in as many weeks, it’s an all-NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: Puka Nacua has been electric for the Los Angeles Rams through the first month, and he should continue to be a problem with the San Francisco 49ers in town. The Niners, who have a laundry list of injuries, are underdogs for the first time this season.

Check out my 49ers vs. Rams picks for Thursday Night Football Week 5 on Oct. 2, featuring a prop bet on Nacua and an ATS pick.

49ers vs. Rams picks

Best Bet: Nacua over 95.5 receiving yards (-114)

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It’s rare to see a receiving yards line this high, but Nacua is a rare talent.

In 2023, Nacua set NFL rookie records in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1,486). He was even better on a per-game basis last year, but missed six games due to injury.

And now in Year 3, Nacua is raising the bar once again.

Through four games, Nacua has 42 catches and 503 yards.

It’s far too early to extrapolate, but that does put him on pace to be the first receiver to crest 2,000 yards.

Nacua has 8+ catches and 90+ yards in all four games. He’s 3-1 vs. this prop.

The BYU grad missed last year’s home matchup against the 49ers, but he carved them up as a rookie: 15 catches, 147 yards on 20 targets.

Altogether, Nacua is 2-1 vs. this prop when facing the 49ers.

San Francisco’s pass defence has been mediocre at best so far. According to RBSDM.com, the Niners’ defence ranks 17th in dropback success rate and 16th in EPA per dropback.

Key stat: Nacua already has six career games with 150+ receiving yards. Only two other wideouts had more through three seasons (Randy Moss, seven; Justin Jefferson, eight).

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Thursday Night Football ATS pick

Rams -5.5 (-110): We’re already at a point in the season where injury report discrepancies can make a big difference. Especially on a short week.

The 49ers’ injury report was more than twice the length of the Rams’ list to open the week. Neither Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, nor Ricky Pearsall practiced on Monday to start the week.

Purdy, who missed Weeks 2 and 3 with a toe injury, played the full game in Week 4 (a home loss vs. the Jaguars). But by Sunday night, he said the toe was bothering him again.

Not practicing on the first of three days to open the week isn’t a great sign, obviously.

The Rams are 4-0 ATS against the Niners over the previous two seasons, winning three of those games straight up as underdogs.

L.A. downed the previously unbeaten Indianapolis Colts at home last week. The Rams are now 7-3 ATS at SoFi Stadium since the start of last season.

49ers vs. Rams picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET 09/30/2025.