Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars Week 5 MNF TD picks: Bet on Travis Kelce to score in Jacksonville

Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks

Travis Kelce hasn’t scored since Week 1, but he’s my best bet to find the end zone on Monday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Chiefs are still looking Kelce’s way in the red zone on a consistent basis, and I don’t see why that would change now. For a play with slightly longer odds, look to KC’s short-yardage running back, Kareem Hunt.

Check out our top Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF TD picks for Oct. 6.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks: Week 5

Best Bet: Kelce to score a TD (+185)

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At 36 years old, Kelce is not the yardage generator or touchdown machine that he once was. But the future Hall of Famer is still a consistent presence in the red zone, and that has my attention.

  • Kelce is the only Chief to be targeted inside the red zone in all four games this season.
  • He has an 85.2% route participation rate, according to Player Profiler, which is seventh among tight ends

Kelce has yet to convert any of his four red zone targets (including two inside the 10-yard line) into points. But if KC is going to be patient with any of its pass-catchers, it’s going to be the veteran TE.

Teams haven’t put up much success in the ground game against Jacksonville, so I think this matchup could be advantageous for Kelce, too.

The Jaguars have only allowed one rushing TD through four games. They’re also holding opponents to an NFL-low rushing success rate in the NFL (28.6%), per RBSDM.com.

Kelce caught all of his targets for a season-high five receptions last week and is still at the core of what the Chiefs’ offensive strategy.

Key stat: In two games against the Jaguars since 2022, Kelce has 10 catches for 107 yards and two TDs (going 2-0 vs. this prop).

Embed: #118878

Monday Night Football TD picks

Hunt to score a TD (+235): I did just highlight the Jaguars’ stoutness as a run defence, but I think Hunt is worth a flier at these odds.

KC’s rushing attack has been miserable, evidenced by the fact that Patrick Mahomes is the leading rusher (130 yards, two TDs).

This isn’t about Hunt potentially having a huge week. It’s merely a belief that he’ll continue seeing the most valuable carries available.

  • Hunt is the only Chiefs tailback with a carry inside the 10-yard line.
  • He’s had six red zone carries over the past three games. Half of those have been from inside the 10.

Last week, Hunt led a muddled backfield in snap share, with Isiah Pacheco and Brashard Smith trailing behind.

Smith, a rookie, could continue to get more run as a change-of-pace back. But he doesn’t have any red zone carries yet, so I’m not overly concerned there.

In a game where the Chiefs are favoured and Hunt has a solidly defined role as the short-yardage runner, this anytime TD price really stands out.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars TD picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET on 10/06/2025.

Best MLB Game 2 division series prop bets: Ortiz and Hernandez have value, fade Schwarber

MLB prop bets

After Sunday’s off-day, both NLDS matchups are back on tap for their respective Game 2s on Monday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Blake Snell has carved up the Philadelphia Phillies many times before, including just a few weeks ago. Teoscar Hernandez has put on a laser show so far in the postseason, and he’ll have a good chance to keep that rolling against a familiar left-handed pitcher tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Monday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Joey Ortiz.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Snell over 7.5 strikeouts (-109)

The Cy Young version of Snell returned in August, and he seems to be hear to stay.

Snell, who missed most of this season with a shoulder injury, came back on Aug. 2 and turned in these numbers to close out the regular season:

  • 9 starts
  • 2.41 ERA
  • 11.7 K/9
  • .209 xBA
  • 33% hard-hit rate

The two-time Cy Young winner as absolutely looked the part, as the Phillies know all too well.

Against Snell, Philadelphia’s active lineup is 23-for-137 (.168) with 56 strikeouts and a sub-.300 SLG. That includes a game last month when Snell had 12 Ks over 7.0 scoreless innings.

The Phillies had the 11th-highest K rate vs. left-handers this season (23.8%). And their 35.4% K rate vs. Snell is off the charts.

Leashes tend to be tighter for pitchers in October, and the Dodgers have no reason to push Snell given that his start is sandwiched between two off days. But if he’s cruising, why stand in the way of that?

In his first postseason start as a Dodger, Snell went 7.0 IP vs. the Reds and struck out nine.

Key stat: Snell is 4-2 vs. this prop in his past six outings, averaging 8.5 Ks per start in that span.

Embed: #118870

MLB postseason player props

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+138): Hernandez is 3-0 vs. this prop in the postseason, and I don’t intend to get off the bandwagon with a price this good.

  • The former Blue Jay has been a productive playoff contributor for the Dodgers since joining the team last season, slugging .541 and averaging 2.1 total bases over 19 games.
  • So far in these playoffs, Hernandez is 5-for-14 with three home runs and a double.

Facing a lefty tonight should give the right-hitting Hernandez an even greater chance to mash. He has a .549 SLG in his career when wielding a platoon advantage.

This particular lefty, Jesus Luzardo, should be a good fit for Hernandez, too. The outfielder is 3-for-8 with two doubles vs. Luzardo in their previous meetings.

Schwarber under 0.5 hits (+110): Schwarber walks and whiffs a ton, which makes him a great guy to fade in this market with Snell on the mound.

Snell’s primary flaw is his walk rate, which has ranked in the bottom 30th percentile every season since 2021, according to Baseball Savant.

He does also have a 96th-percentile whiff rate this year, though, so hitters are often fooled when they see something that looks hittable.

Schwarber’s 33.1% whiff rate ranks in the fifth percentile among hitters, but his 14.9% walk rate is way up in the 97th percentile.

He absolutely mashes when he gets ahold of the ball, but there are also tons of instances in which no contact is made.

Entering tonight, Schwarber is hitless in five consecutive games. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in NLDS Game 1.

And against Snell, Schwarber is 2-for-14 with six strikeouts and three walks.

MLB prop bets: Cubs vs. Brewers

Ortiz over 0.5 hits (-136): Ortiz had a sub-.600 OPS this season, which makes him a bit of a tough sell for any overs predictions.

But the right-hitting shortstop is solid against LHPs, and that’s the foundation of this pick.

  • Ortiz batted 39-for-135 (.289) vs. LHPs this season.
  • Against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, Ortiz is 4-for-9 with a double.

Ortiz hardly ever walks (5.3%, 14th percentile) and he rarely strikes out (14.6%, 86th percentile). As long as he continues putting balls in play, he’ll have a chance.

Over his final 15 regular season starts, Ortiz went 12-3 vs. this line.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 10/06/2025.

College football Week 6 prop picks: Bet on Miami’s CharMar Brown to score vs. Florida State

College football prop bets

There are three top-10 college football programs in action tonight, and I’ve got prop bets from each of their games.

The latest: The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes have leaned on a pair of running backs this season, and CharMar Brown has value to score against the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles. Elsewhere, look for Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey to have a high-volume passing day against the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Check out my favourite Week 6 college football prop picks, featuring a prediction on Texas A&M Aggies receiver Kevin Concepcion.

College football prop picks

Best bet: Brown rushing TD (+110)

The Hurricanes have a backfield timeshare, and Brown is the 1B option behind Mark Fletcher Jr.

But Brown is the primary pass-catching back, and there seems to be enough touches to go around for both players.

Here are their per-game stats through four games:

  • Fletcher: 17.5 touches, 108.3 yards
  • Brown: 14.3 touches, 70.3 yards

Both players have five touchdowns apiece, so it’s not like all the scoring opportunities are tilted one way or another.

The difference is that Fletcher holds -182 odds to score, while Brown’s TD price sits at plus money. To me, that screams value.

Especially since Brown is coming off his best game of the season: 133 scrimmage yards and two TDs on 22 touches vs. Florida.

Both the Hurricanes and Seminoles have potent offences, which explains the rather juicy 54.5-point projected total for tonight’s matchup.

Defensively, Florida State could be liable to get gashed in the run game. Last week, the Noles allowed 211 rushing yards and four TDs in an upset loss against then-unranked Virginia.

Key stat: Brown has been a trusted goal-line back so far for Miami. All five of his touchdowns have come inside the five-yard line.

Bet on today’s college football games

CFB prop bets

Concepcion over 68.5 receiving yards (-118): There will be plenty of attention paid to Texas A&M’s Mario Craver in tonight’s matchup as he faces his old team (Mississippi State) for the first time. But my attention is elsewhere.

Concepcion has been about as good a WR2 could be through four games:

  • 20 catches, 340 yards, 3 TDs
  • 70+ yards in 4 of 4

Concepcion didn’t find the end zone last time out, but he paced Aggies receivers in targets (nine), catches (seven) and yards (113).

Mississippi State’s defence ranks 69th in EPA per pass, and last week the Bulldogs allowed two Tennessee receivers to crest 100 yards.

There should be room for Craver and Concepcion both to shine at Kyle Field.

Lindsey over 173.5 passing yards (-118): Ohio State’s defence is disgusting, and that makes it difficult to bet the over on any opposing player props. But the game script works in Lindsey’s favour, and he’s been solid so far in 2025.

  • Minnesota is a 23.5-point underdog at Ohio Stadium.
  • Lindsey has thrown for 200+ yards in his three full games this season. He also went 8-for-9 for 139 yards in an abbreviated start vs. Northwestern State (FCS) and was pulled early in a blowout.

Ohio State has faced two Power 4 opponents so far, and their quarterbacks hovered right around this line (170 yards for Texas’ Arch Manning, 173 yards for Washington’s Demond Williams Jr.).

I don’t expect the Golden Gophers to be terribly competitive in this game, but Lindsey should have enough passing volume to hit this over.

College football prop picks made at 1:50 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

College football Week 6 prop picks: Bet on Miami’s CharMar Brown to score vs. Florida State

College football prop bets

There are three top-10 college football programs in action tonight, and I’ve got prop bets from each of their games.

The latest: The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes have leaned on a pair of running backs this season, and CharMar Brown has value to score against the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles. Elsewhere, look for Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey to have a high-volume passing day against the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes.

Check out my favourite Week 6 college football prop picks, featuring a prediction on Texas A&M Aggies receiver Kevin Concepcion.

College football prop picks

Best bet: Brown anytime TD (+108)

The Hurricanes have a backfield timeshare, and Brown is the 1B option behind Mark Fletcher Jr.

But Brown is the primary pass-catching back, and there seems to be enough touches to go around for both players.

Here are their per-game stats through four games:

  • Fletcher: 17.5 touches, 108.3 yards
  • Brown: 14.3 touches, 70.3 yards

Both players have five touchdowns apiece, so it’s not like all the scoring opportunities are tilted one way or another.

The difference is that Fletcher holds -182 odds to score, while Brown’s TD price sits at plus money. To me, that screams value.

Especially since Brown is coming off his best game of the season: 133 scrimmage yards and two TDs on 22 touches vs. Florida.

Both the Hurricanes and Seminoles have potent offences, which explains the rather juicy 54.5-point projected total for tonight’s matchup.

Defensively, Florida State could be liable to get gashed in the run game. Last week, the Noles allowed 211 rushing yards and four TDs in an upset loss against then-unranked Virginia.

Key stat: Brown has been a trusted goal-line back so far for Miami. All five of his touchdowns have come inside the five-yard line.

Embed: #118765

Bet on today’s college football games

CFB prop bets

Concepcion over 65.5 receiving yards (-121): There will be plenty of attention paid to Texas A&M’s Mario Craver in tonight’s matchup as he faces his old team (Mississippi State) for the first time. But my attention is elsewhere.

Concepcion has been about as good a WR2 could be through four games:

  • 20 catches, 340 yards, 3 TDs
  • 70+ yards in 4 of 4

Concepcion didn’t find the end zone last time out, but he paced Aggies receivers in targets (nine), catches (seven) and yards (113).

Mississippi State’s defence ranks 69th in EPA per pass, and last week the Bulldogs allowed two Tennessee receivers to crest 100 yards.

There should be room for Craver and Concepcion both to shine at Kyle Field.

Lindsey over 172.5 passing yards (-121): Ohio State’s defence is disgusting, and that makes it difficult to bet the over on any opposing player props. But the game script works in Lindsey’s favour, and he’s been solid so far in 2025.

  • Minnesota is a 23.5-point underdog at Ohio Stadium.
  • Lindsey has thrown for 200+ yards in his three full games this season. He also went 8-for-9 for 139 yards in an abbreviated start vs. Northwestern State (FCS) and was pulled early in a blowout.

Ohio State has faced two Power 4 opponents so far, and their quarterbacks hovered right around this line (170 yards for Texas’ Arch Manning, 173 yards for Washington’s Demond Williams Jr.).

I don’t expect the Golden Gophers to be terribly competitive in this game, but Lindsey should have enough passing volume to hit this over.

College football prop picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 10/04/2025.

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Best MLB Game 1 division series prop bets: Bet on Hernandez to rake, fade Schwarber in NLDS showdown

MLB prop bets

MLB’s division series begin on Saturday, and I’m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that’s bad news for the Phillies’ chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that matchup, Teoscar Hernandez is swinging a hot bat and will have a platoon advantage.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Kerry Carpenter.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Carpenter over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+125), to get a hit (-167)

Depending on your appetite for risk, I have two predictions for the guy who’s somewhat generously nicknamed “Kerry Bonds.”

The left-hitting outfielder is off to a nice start in the postseason, batting 4-for-10 with a double and three walks. He has a hit in all three games and is 3-0 vs. this hits/runs/RBI prop.

Carpenter slugged .512 against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and his .512 xSLG on the season ranks in the 89th percentile (per Baseball Savant).

He also has crazy good numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby:

  • 4-for-8
  • 4 HRs
  • 104 mph average exit velocity

Kirby is coming off the worst of his four seasons as a big-leaguer, posting a 4.21 ERA (90 ERA+). He also posted a 4.72 K/BB ratio, which was drastically lower than his two previous seasons (7.78, 9.05).

Still, Kirby’s 5.5% walk rate is among the highest in the majors, ranking in the 89th percentile.

And Carpenter seldom walks (3.9%, second percentile), so this is a great matchup to expect balls in play.

Key stat: Since the beginning of September, Carpenter has a .269 xBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity. For context, league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph exit velo.

MLB postseason player props

Schwarber under 0.5 runs (+100): If you want to fade the Phillies with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, there are very few playable lines as standalones. But this is one of them.

Schwarber is the leadoff man for a very talented Phillies lineup, so naturally, he scores a lot.

But it’s a tough task to score on Ohtani, who kept Schwarber’s Phillies hitless through five innings on Sept. 16.

Ohtani has allowed just one run over his past four starts (19.2 innings) while striking out 27 batters.

Schwarber has massive power potential, but he has plenty of swing-and-miss, too. Over his past 35 games, he’s batting .192 with 45 Ks.

In that span, Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs in 19 games (54.3%).

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+130): Hernandez showed up big time in the Dodgers’ two-game sweep of the Reds in the wild-card series, and I expect him to stay hot on Saturday.

In the opening round of the playoffs, Hernandez went 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double vs. Cincinnati. He cashed this bet both times.

The ex-Blue Jay didn’t have his best year overall, but I’m still partial to backing him when there’s a lefty on the mound. Hernandez has a .549 SLG in his career against LHPs.

When facing Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez in particular, Hernandez is 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 10/04/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALDS best bets: Look for Guerrero, Gausman to fuel a Toronto win

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

For the first time since 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the American League Division Series — and their voyage starts Saturday against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Since the all-star break, Toronto’s offence has been humming. So has Kevin Gausman, who will get the ball for the home team this afternoon. The Blue Jays are 3-1 vs. the Yankees with Gausman on the mound this season.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Volpe.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-125)

It’s been a while since the excitement and expectations were this high for the Blue Jays, and they’re equipped to match that energy in Game 1.

Coming off the club’s highest win total since the early ’90s World Series years, Toronto is the top seed in the AL. That status came down to a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Yankees.

The Blue Jays went 8-5 vs. the Yankees this season, including 6-1 at home.

Gausman had a rough start in New York all the way back in April, but he turned the page for three strong outings over the summer:

  • July 1: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 K
  • July 21: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K
  • Sept. 5: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K

The Yankees are seeing the best version of Gausman right now. Since the all-star break, he has a 2.81 ERA and a .201 opponent BA.

As for New York’s Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA), his underlying numbers tell a different story than his on-paper production.

Gil has had a nice year since returning from the injured list in August. I’m still not sold on his ability to shut down a talented lineup, though.

The right-hander ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in some key analytical metrics (per Baseball Savant): xERA, average exit velocity, ground ball rate, chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.

Toronto had the No. 1 offence in baseball in the second half, posting a 123 wRC+ and averaging 5.4 runs per game.

Backed by home-field advantage and a red-hot Gausman, I like the Jays to take Game 1.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have the best home record in the AL this season (54-27).

Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (+110): High walk rates for Guerrero as a hitter and Gil as a pitcher steered me away from a total bases prediction today.

But I wanted something on Guerrero, and at plus-money odds, this is a way I’m happy to back him.

  • Vladdy is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks vs. Gil.
  • He ranked eighth in the regular season in runs (96) and third in on-base percentage (.381).
  • In 154 starts, Guerrero scored 75 times (48.7%). That’s a slightly higher rate than the 48.1% implied probability on this prop price.

I’m sure the Yankees will try to be careful with Guerrero, and Gil’s wildness could lead to a free pass or two regardless. As long as Vladdy finds a way on, he’ll have a chance.

Volpe under 0.5 hits (+100): Volpe has four hits through three postseason games so far, but three of them were grounders that snuck through.

Over his final 26 starts in the regular season, Volpe cashed this under 13 times while batting just .198.

His .212 BA for the season was the second-worst among 145 qualified hitters.

Now he’ll face Gausman, who has excelled at keeping the shortstop quiet in the past. Volpe is just 3-for-24 vs. Gausman with one walk and 10 strikeouts.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds as of 11:36 a.m. on 10/04/2025.

Best MLB Game 1 division series prop bets: Bet on Hernandez to rake, fade Schwarber in NLDS showdown

MLB prop bets

MLB’s division series begin on Saturday, and I’m targeting a trio of players in the final two games of the quadruple-header.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start for the Dodgers in Philadelphia, and that’s bad news for the Phillies’ chances to put runs on the board. On the flip side of that matchup, Teoscar Hernandez is swinging a hot bat and will have a platoon advantage.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Saturday’s postseason action, featuring predictions on Kyle Schwarber and Kerry Carpenter.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Carpenter over 1.5 bases (+185), to get a hit (-134)

Depending on your appetite for risk, I have two predictions for the guy who’s somewhat generously nicknamed “Kerry Bonds.”

The left-hitting outfielder is off to a nice start in the postseason, batting 4-for-10 with a double and three walks. He has a hit in all three games and is 2-1 vs. this bases prop.

Carpenter slugged .512 against right-handed pitchers during the regular season, and his .512 xSLG on the season ranks in the 89th percentile (per Baseball Savant).

He also has crazy good numbers against Mariners righty George Kirby:

  • 4-for-8
  • 4 HRs
  • 104 mph average exit velocity

Kirby is coming off the worst of his four seasons as a big-leaguer, posting a 4.21 ERA (90 ERA+). He also posted a 4.72 K/BB ratio, which was drastically lower than his two previous seasons (7.78, 9.05).

Still, Kirby’s 5.5% walk rate is among the highest in the majors, ranking in the 89th percentile.

And Carpenter seldom walks (3.9%, second percentile), so this is a great matchup to expect balls in play.

Key stat: Since the beginning of September, Carpenter has a .269 xBA, a 50% hard-hit rate and a 92.2 mph average exit velocity. For context, league averages in those categories are .252 xBA, 40.9% hard-hit rate and an 89.4 mph exit velo.

Embed: #118751

MLB postseason player props

Schwarber under 0.5 runs (-118): If you want to fade the Phillies with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, there are very few playable lines as standalones. But this is one of them.

Schwarber is the leadoff man for a very talented Phillies lineup, so naturally, he scores a lot.

But it’s a tough task to score on Ohtani, who kept Schwarber’s Phillies hitless through five innings on Sept. 16.

Ohtani has allowed just one run over his past four starts (19.2 innings) while striking out 27 batters.

Schwarber has massive power potential, but he has plenty of swing-and-miss, too. Over his past 35 games, he’s batting .192 with 45 Ks.

In that span, Schwarber has gone under 0.5 runs in 19 games (54.3%).

Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+140): Hernandez showed up big time in the Dodgers’ two-game sweep of the Reds in the wild-card series, and I expect him to stay hot on Saturday.

In the opening round of the playoffs, Hernandez went 4-for-10 with two home runs and a double vs. Cincinnati. He cashed this bet both times.

The ex-Blue Jay didn’t have his best year overall, but I’m still partial to backing him when there’s a lefty on the mound. Hernandez has a .549 SLG in his career against LHPs.

When facing Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez in particular, Hernandez is 5-for-12 with two homers and two doubles.

MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 10/04/2025.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALDS best bets: Look for Guerrero, Gausman to fuel a Toronto win

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

For the first time since 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the American League Division Series — and their voyage starts Saturday against the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: Since the all-star break, Toronto’s offence has been humming. So has Kevin Gausman, who will get the ball for the home team this afternoon. The Blue Jays are 3-1 vs. the Yankees with Gausman on the mound this season.

Check out my Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Volpe.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays ML (-129)

It’s been a while since the excitement and expectations were this high for the Blue Jays, and they’re equipped to match that energy in Game 1.

Coming off the club’s highest win total since the early ’90s World Series years, Toronto is the top seed in the AL. That status came down to a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Yankees.

The Blue Jays went 8-5 vs. the Yankees this season, including 6-1 at home.

Gausman had a rough start in New York all the way back in April, but he turned the page for three strong outings over the summer:

  • July 1: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 3 K
  • July 21: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 8 K
  • Sept. 5: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 5 K

The Yankees are seeing the best version of Gausman right now. Since the all-star break, he has a 2.81 ERA and a .201 opponent BA.

As for New York’s Gil (4-1, 3.32 ERA), his underlying numbers tell a different story than his on-paper production.

Gil has had a nice year since returning from the injured list in August. I’m still not sold on his ability to shut down a talented lineup, though.

The right-hander ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in some key analytical metrics (per Baseball Savant): xERA, average exit velocity, ground ball rate, chase rate, strikeout rate and walk rate.

Toronto had the No. 1 offence in baseball in the second half, posting a 123 wRC+ and averaging 5.4 runs per game.

Backed by home-field advantage and a red-hot Gausman, I like the Jays to take Game 1.

Key stat: The Blue Jays have the best home record in the AL this season (54-27).

Embed: #118750

Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (+108): High walk rates for Guerrero as a hitter and Gil as a pitcher steered me away from a total bases prediction today.

But I wanted something on Guerrero, and at plus-money odds, this is a way I’m happy to back him.

  • Vladdy is 3-for-7 with two doubles and three walks vs. Gil.
  • He ranked eighth in the regular season in runs (96) and third in on-base percentage (.381).
  • In 154 starts, Guerrero scored 75 times (48.7%). That’s a slightly higher rate than the 48.1% implied probability on this prop price.

I’m sure the Yankees will try to be careful with Guerrero, and Gil’s wildness could lead to a free pass or two regardless. As long as Vladdy finds a way on, he’ll have a chance.

Volpe under 0.5 hits (-106): Volpe has four hits through three postseason games so far, but three of them were grounders that snuck through.

Over his final 26 starts in the regular season, Volpe cashed this under 13 times while batting just .198.

His .212 BA for the season was the second-worst among 145 qualified hitters.

Now he’ll face Gausman, who has excelled at keeping the shortstop quiet in the past. Volpe is just 3-for-24 vs. Gausman with one walk and 10 strikeouts.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds as of 8:36 a.m. on 10/04/2025.

NFL Week 5 betting guide: Player prop recommendations, parlay picks and more for the 14-game slate

NFL betting guide

Bye weeks are here for a selection of NFL squads as a fresh month of football begins.

Week 5 at a glance: Once again, NFL Sunday starts with a morning matchup across the pond as the Minnesota Vikings face Dillon Gabriel and the Cleveland Browns. Later on, the Baltimore Ravens will be playing desperately without Lamar Jackson, while the Washington Commanders will graciously welcome back Jayden Daniels under centre.

Check out our Week 5 NFL betting guide for staff picks and predictions on the loaded 14-game slate, which features the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs in primetime slots.

NFL betting guide

Key storylines:

  • It’s getting late early for the Ravens (1-3), who turn to backup quarterback Cooper Rush in place of the injured Jackson. According to ESPN, only 10.6% of teams in the Super Bowl era that started 1-3 were able to turn things around and make the playoffs (43 of 405 teams).
  • It hasn’t always looked pretty for the Philadelphia Eagles (4-0), but they’re one of just two unbeaten teams remaining. This week, they host the Denver Broncos, who have the No. 2 scoring defence so far 16.8 PPG).
  • Joe Flacco out, Gabriel in. Cleveland’s third-round rookie QB will make his first start in this week’s international game in London. Three weeks ago, Gabriel went 3 for 3 through the air for 19 yards and a touchdown in mop-up duty against Baltimore.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally had a comeback attempt fall short, losing at home against the reigning champion Eagles last week. Now the Bucs face a fellow 3-1 squad, the Seattle Seahawks, who are at home with extra rest after a Thursday Night Football victory in Week 4.
  • Rashee Rice still won’t be back for a couple of weeks, but Xavier Worthy showed what he can unlock for the Chiefs in his return last Sunday. The second-year speedster turned seven touches into 121 scrimmage yards, pacing KC in both receiving and rushing yards.
  • There were some big-name injuries in Week 4. Star wideouts Tyreek Hill and Malik Nabers are done for the season with knee injuries and standout defensive end Nick Bosa is out for the season, while the aforementioned Jackson is reportedly expected to miss multiple weeks.

NFL betting hub

NFL Week 5 betting notes

  • The Houston Texans are 1-4 SU in their past five road games, while the Denver Broncos are 1-7 SU in their past eight road games.
  • The Tennessee Titans are on a truly miserable ATS run, going 3-18 in their last 21 games. First overall pick Cam Ward hasn’t stopped the bleeding and is 1-3 ATS as a starter … coming off a 26-0 loss in Houston.
  • The Detroit Lions quickly put their season-opening loss to the Green Bay Packers in the rearview and are 3-0 ATS since. Since the start of last season, Detroit is 6-1 ATS as a road favourite, according to Team Rankings.
  • How much will home-field advantage matter when Miami visits Carolina? These teams are a combined 0-5 on the road, and the Panthers won their lone home game 30-0 over the Falcons (as 5-point underdogs).
  • For the third straight week, Buffalo is favoured by more than a touchdown. But the Bills failed to cover their hefty spreads in Weeks 3 and 4, and they went 0-4 ATS vs. the Patriots over the previous two seasons.

Biggest spreads: Lions (-10.5) vs. Bengals; Patriots vs. Bills (-8.5); Titans vs. Cardinals (-7.5)

Highest totals: Lions vs. Bengals (49.5); Patriots vs. Bills (49.5); Commanders vs. Chargers (48)

NFL betting guide: Week 5 predictions

49ers vs. Rams TNF picks: Puka Nacua is on an absurd run to start his third season, and he should be L.A.’s main weapon in this divisional clash between two 3-1 teams. A Nacua prop bet is one of two picks displayed here.

49ers vs. Rams TNF SGP: Brock Purdy, Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings have all been ruled out, while the Rams come into Thursday Night Football almost completely healthy. L.A. should have the edge, and Christian McCaffrey should be heavily involved for the visiting Niners.

ATS picks: Get ATS predictions for the entire slate, headlined by Lions vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football.

Upset picks: The Browns (+150) and the Patriots (+340) are this week’s underdogs to watch. Want to know why? Click the link to find out.

Best bets: We’re serving up a true combo platter this week, with two ATS picks (a favourite and an underdog), a plus-money moneyline pick and a Justin Fields prop bet.

TD picks: This week, Avery Perri has two plus-money recommendations on star players Alvin Kamara and Trey McBride.

Broncos vs. Eagles Week 5 SGP: What’s more exciting than lots of scoring and strong quarterback play? Check out this +310 SGP that includes the over with prop picks on Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix.

Patriots vs. Bills SNF picks: Can Drake Maye continue his strong season? Find out how Spencer Closs is backing him on Sunday Night Football.

Patriots vs. Bils SNF SGP: Looking for a long shot? Steven Psihogios has a +500 ticket for Sunday Night Football that features Josh Allen and Hunter Henry.

Prop bets: Ladd McConkey is due for a big game. Click the link to see his best prop bet, plus two extra picks for Sunday.

Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks: Is Kansas City back? Psihogios says not so fast. He’s backing the Jaguars to cover the spread, and tacking on props for Trevor Lawrence and Kareem Hunt.s

We’ll release more NFL predictions throughout the week. Here’s what you can expect for Week 5.

Oct. 4

Patriots vs. Bills SNF SGP
Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF picks

Oct. 5

Patriots vs. Bills TD picks
Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF SGP

NFL Week 5 matchups

Thursday Night Football (Oct. 2)

  • 49ers vs. Rams (8:15 p.m. ET)

Bet on Week 5 NFL action

International Series game in London (Oct. 5)

  • Vikings vs. Browns (9:30 a.m. ET)

Sunday, Oct. 5: 1 p.m. ET slate

  • Cowboys vs. Jets | Broncos vs. Eagles
  • Texans vs. Ravens | Raiders vs. Colts
  • Dolphins vs. Panthers | Giants vs. Saints

Sunday, Oct. 5: 4 p.m. ET slate

  • Buccaneers vs. Seahawks | Titans vs. Cardinals
  • Lions vs. Bengals | Commanders vs. Chargers

Sunday Night Football

  • Patriots vs. Bills (8:20 p.m. ET)

Monday Night Football (Oct. 6)

  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars (8:15 p.m. ET)

Red Sox vs. Yankees Game 3 wild-card SGP predictions: Bet on Judge, Bellinger in decisive matchup

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees square off in a win-or-go-home matchup on Thursday night to advance to the ALDS.

The pregame narrative: A pair of promising rookie pitchers, Connelly Early and Cam Schlittler, take the mound in their clubs’ biggest game of the season. The Yankees have never faced Early, but there are some menacing sluggers in their lineup who thrive against left-handed pitching.

Check out my +310 Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions for Game 3, featuring prop bets on Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Cedanne Rafaela.

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Judge over 1.5 bases | Bellinger 1+ hits | Rafaela under 1.5 bases (+310)

Judge over 1.5 total bases (-106): Judge is the best hitter on the planet overall, and he’s the best hitter against left-handed pitching, too.

  • During the regular season, Judge posted a .341/.491/.789 slash line vs. LHPs.
  • His OPS (1.280), wRC+ (225) and ISO (.447) vs. LHPs all led the majors.

Judge is 4-for-8 so far in this series, cashing this bet in both games. He’s now 81-73 against this prop on the season as a whole.

Early has been nasty so far, posting a 2.33 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. But Judge mashes southpaws, and this price is more than fair to back the AL MVP-in-waiting.

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MLB SGP legs

Bellinger 1+ hits (-210): Judge isn’t the only Yankee who excels against LHPs. Bellinger finished third in the regular season in wRC+ against southpaws (180) with a .353 batting average.

Typically, lefty-on-lefty matchups put hitters at a disadvantage. But Bellinger is an exception to the rule.

Early throws a combination of sinkers, sweepers and four-seamers roughly two-thirds of the time when facing left-handed batters.

Bellinger has a .385/.443/.644 slash line against those pitches from LHPs this season.

In his past 34 games, Bellinger has cashed this bet 26 times (76.5%).

Rafaela under 1.5 total bases (-250): Given that Schlittler throws gas, I wanted to fade a Red Sox hitter who struggles to handle the heat.

Rafaela is that guy, as he’s just 5-for-33 (.152) with zero extra-base hits this season against pitches that are 97 mph or above, per Baseball Savant.

Schlittler’s four-seamer and sinker both sit north of 97 mph. On the four-seamer in particular, opponents are batting .176 with a .279 SLG.

Rafaela is hitless in this series (0-for-6). This under is now 18-5 in his past 23 starts.

Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions as of 12:26 p.m. on 10/02/2025.