I’m going big on the Big Ten this week, with three picks coming from that conference’s slate.
The pregame narrative: Bo Jackson has been running wild for the Ohio State Buckeyes, and he should be able to keep that going against an Illinois Fighting Illini team that has been flattened before in the run game. Elsewhere, Gunner Stockton faces a defence that has really struggled to slow down air attacks.
Check out the best college football Week 7 picks, featuring an ATS pick for the Indiana Hoosiers vs. Oregon Ducks matchup.
College football picks Week 7
Best bet: Iowa -3 (-110)
This is a for-the-love-of-the-game matchup between two programs with absolutely miserable offences. As a result, the projected total is an NCAA Division I-low 35.5 points.
The differentiating factor here is the Iowa Hawkeyes’ defence, which put the clamps on No. 7 Indiana two weeks ago. Iowa ranks 20th in scoring defence, allowing 15.6 points per game.
- According to Game On Paper, Iowa’s defence ranks 38th in EPA per play and 49th in success rate.
- By comparison, the Wisconsin Badgers’ defence ranks 95th in EPA per play and 86th in success rate.
- The Badgers have allowed 89 points in their past three games. The Hawkeyes have allowed just 78 total points in five games this season.
Iowa is on the road, but it has a rest advantage after enjoying a bye last week. Wisconsin, meanwhile, had just come off a bye to score 10 points in a multi-score loss at No. 15 Michigan.
In each of the past three seasons, Iowa has won and covered against Wisconsin. That includes last season’s 42-10 win at home.
Key stat: Iowa is 3-0-1 ATS in its four matchups against FBS opponents this season.
More college football best bets
Jackson over 78.5 rushing yards (-120): Before you get any ideas, no, this Bo Jackson is not related to that Bo Jackson. But Ohio State’s young running back has been seriously tearing it up in his freshman year.
- Through four games, Jackson has averaged 90 rushing yards per game on 7.5 yards/carry.
- Jackson is 3-1 vs. this prop.
The workload for Jackson is trending up, too, as he’s had 30 carries in the past two weeks — after getting 18 carries in Ohio State’s first two games.
The top-ranked Buckeyes are 14.5-point favourites and should be in position to grind clock by running the football. That’s a plus for Jackson.
In Illinois’ two other games against ranked opponents, three total running backs cleared this total.
Oregon -7.5 (-112): Indiana and Oregon rank second and third, respectively, in net EPA per play so far.
But I think this is an opportunity for the Ducks to put some distance between themselves and what I deem to be a lesser Big Ten foe.
Oregon and Indiana are both unbeaten and ranked in the top 10, but the Ducks have played a tougher schedule (47th in FBS, compared to 70th for Indiana).
The Ducks also have the best win between the two squads, beating then-No. 3 Penn State as 3.5-point road underdogs two weeks ago.
In the Hoosiers’ lone road game of the season, they scored just 20 points in a narrow win over unranked Iowa (failing to cover as 9-point favourites).
No. 10 Georgia vs. Auburn prop bet
Stockton over 1.5 passing TDs (+110): Georgia has scored 16 of its 23 offensive touchdowns on the ground, but I expect it’ll need a more pass-heavy attack this weekend.
The Auburn Tigers have deployed one of the best run defences in the nation so far, allowing just 2.6 yards/carry and two rushing TDs through five games.
Auburn’s run defence ranks No. 2 in EPA per play and No. 3 in success rate.
Stockton has five rushing TDs of his own, which leads the Dawgs. But Auburn’s strength up front should deter him from calling his own number so often.
Auburn has thrived at stopping the run but floundered when trying to stop the pass. The Tigers are 115th in EPA per pass on defence, as well as 106th in success rate.
College football picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 10/09/2025.
