Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Kirk to shine, Toronto to cover the run line at home

For the first time in nine years, the ALCS is back in Toronto, as the Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: Two nights ago, the Mariners used seven pitchers — including their top three starters — to earn an ALCS berth. That puts Toronto in a favourable position to win this series. Backed by Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays are expected to win Game 1 tonight.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Alejandro Kirk.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays -1.5 | Naylor to record a hit | Kirk to record a hit (+300)

Blue Jays -1.5 (+115): Rest advantage isn’t talked about in baseball nearly as much as in football or basketball. But there should be a notable edge for Toronto in the series opener.

The Jays have had three full days off, providing plenty of time to nurse celebration hangovers, work on drills at their home park and line up their pitching rotation however they please.

The Mariners didn’t punch their ALCS ticket until the wee hours of Saturday morning (in eastern time), having gutted through a 15-inning slog against the Tigers.

Between the final out of Seattle’s ALDS and the first out of its ALCS, fewer than 43 hours will have passed — with a boozy celebration and a cross-country flight in between.

That’s one layer of this prediction, but it’s far from the only one.

Toronto is 4-2 vs. Seattle this year, and all four wins covered a -1.5 run line.

The Jays are 7-1 in their past eight games overall. They covered a -1.5 run line in every win during that span (they also led 6-1 in the lone loss).

Seattle’s Bryce Miller allowed seven runs on eight hits in his lone start vs. Toronto this season (a 9-1 win for the Jays).

At home, Toronto has an MLB-best record (56-27) and a +109 run differential.

MLB SGP legs

Naylor to record a hit (-223): Naylor was a great trade deadline addition for the Mariners, and he’s kept that rolling into October.

Post-trade in the regular season, Naylor slashed .299/.341/.490 in 54 games for Seattle.

In Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS, he went 6-for-10 with two doubles.

The Mississauga, Ontario native has felt right at home inside Rogers Centre, batting 16-for-51 (.314) with three doubles and a home run.

Against Gausman, Naylor is 4-for-11 lifetime.

Kirk to record a hit (-264): Kirk is among several Blue Jays worth backing on Sunday. I chose him because of his success against Miller’s pitch mix.

Against right-handed batters, Miller throws a combination of four-seamers, sinkers and splitters more than 75% of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Kirk had a .322 xBA and a .544 xSLG off those pitch types this year.

The two-time all-star catcher cashed this bet in three of four ALDS games. And his .290 xBA on the season ranked in the 90th percentile in the majors.

As for Miller, his .285 xBA ranked in the seventh percentile among pitchers.

Blue Jays picks as of 12 p.m. on 10/12/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Kirk to shine, Toronto to cover the run line at home

For the first time in nine years, the ALCS is back in Toronto, as the Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: Two nights ago, the Mariners used seven pitchers — including their top three starters — to earn an ALCS berth. That puts Toronto in a favourable position to win this series. Backed by Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays are expected to win Game 1 tonight.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Alejandro Kirk.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays -1.5 | Naylor to record a hit | Kirk to record a hit (+390)

Blue Jays -1.5 (+128): Rest advantage isn’t talked about in baseball nearly as much as in football or basketball. But there should be a notable edge for Toronto in the series opener.

The Jays have had three full days off, providing plenty of time to nurse celebration hangovers, work on drills at their home park and line up their pitching rotation however they please.

The Mariners didn’t punch their ALCS ticket until the wee hours of Saturday morning (in eastern time), having gutted through a 15-inning slog against the Tigers.

Between the final out of Seattle’s ALDS and the first out of its ALCS, fewer than 43 hours will have passed — with a boozy celebration and a cross-country flight in between.

That’s one layer of this prediction, but it’s far from the only one.

Toronto is 4-2 vs. Seattle this year, and all four wins covered a -1.5 run line.

The Jays are 7-1 in their past eight games overall. They covered a -1.5 run line in every win during that span (they also led 6-1 in the lone loss).

Seattle’s Bryce Miller allowed seven runs on eight hits in his lone start vs. Toronto this season (a 9-1 win for the Jays).

At home, Toronto has an MLB-best record (56-27) and a +109 run differential.

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MLB SGP legs

Naylor to record a hit (-180): Naylor was a great trade deadline addition for the Mariners, and he’s kept that rolling into October.

Post-trade in the regular season, Naylor slashed .299/.341/.490 in 54 games for Seattle.

In Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS, he went 6-for-10 with two doubles.

The Mississauga, Ontario native has felt right at home inside Rogers Centre, batting 16-for-51 (.314) with three doubles and a home run.

Against Gausman, Naylor is 4-for-11 lifetime.

Kirk to record a hit (-240): Kirk is among several Blue Jays worth backing on Sunday. I chose him because of his success against Miller’s pitch mix.

Against right-handed batters, Miller throws a combination of four-seamers, sinkers and splitters more than 75% of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Kirk had a .322 xBA and a .544 xSLG off those pitch types this year.

The two-time all-star catcher cashed this bet in three of four ALDS games. And his .290 xBA on the season ranked in the 90th percentile in the majors.

As for Miller, his .285 xBA ranked in the seventh percentile among pitchers.

Blue Jays picks as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/12/2025.

Lions vs. Chiefs Week 6 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on David Montgomery to stay involved, Detroit to cover as SNF underdogs

A pair of cross-conference Super Bowl hopefuls meet in Week 6 on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs are second and fourth, respectively, on the current Super Bowl 60 odds leaderboard. KC is a modest home favourite this week despite some truly stellar play of late on the Lions’ side.

Check out my Lions vs. Chiefs picks for the Sunday Night Football matchup on Oct. 12, featuring a prop prediction on David Montgomery.

Lions vs. Chiefs picks

Best bet: Montgomery over 10.5 rush attempts (-125)

The Lions should want to run the ball a lot on Sunday night. To me, this line is a smash play.

For one thing, the Lions already run the ball a lot. They rank third in the NFL in run play percentage (49.67%), per Team Rankings.

The Chiefs’ run defence has struggled mightily. It ranks 30th in rush success rate and 31st in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.

The catch is that Montgomery is the 1B in Detroit’s two-man backfield, having handed the 1A reins to Jahmyr Gibbs. So if Gibbs is rolling, Montgomery could see a smaller piece of the pie.

That wasn’t the case last week, though, when Montgomery rumbled for 65 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against the Bengals.

Gibbs, meanwhile, had 12 carries for 54 yards.

It was the first time this season that Montgomery out-touched Gibbs on the ground since Week 1. I’m not expecting that to become a trend, but it tells me there’s room for both to be active.

Jared Goff is capable of airing it out, but Detroit’s offensive identity starts with its two-headed monster in the backfield. Montgomery has been steadily involved all season, and that shouldn’t change.

Key stat: Montgomery is 4-1 vs. this rush attempts prop, averaging 12.2 attempts per game.

Sunday Night Football ATS pick

Lions +2.5 (-110): Detroit’s Week 1 flop in Green Bay feels like a distant memory.

That was the Lions’ first game without its Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, the former offensive and defensive coordinators who departed in the offseason for head coaching gigs. Maybe the team just needed a little longer to gel without them.

From Week 2 onward, Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS with a +76 point differential. The Lions are also No. 1 in offensive EPA and No. 2 in defensive EPA in that span.

I like the Lions to win outright at plus money, but backing them with a couple of extra points doesn’t hurt, either.

Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, Detroit is 24-11 ATS as an underdog (68.6%, No. 2 hit rate in the NFL).

Kansas City has one fewer day of rest and is just 1-2 SU as a favourite on the season.

Lions vs. Chiefs picks made at 4:27 p.m. ET 10/10/2025.

Cubs vs. Brewers Game 5 NLDS best bet: Bet the over in do-or-die matchup

Only one NL Central team can squeeze its way into the NLCS, and we’ll have our answer on Saturday night in Milwaukee.

The pregame narrative: The Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in a win-or-go-home matchup in Game 5 of the NLDS. Milwaukee won the first two games of the series at home, but Chicago held serve in its home park. Neither team’s starting pitcher had been confirmed at the time of this writing.

Check out my Cubs vs. Brewers best bet for Game 5 at American Family Field.

Cubs vs. Brewers best bet

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-106)

The Cubs and Brewers have seen a lot of each other. In my view, that should benefit the hitters.

Saturday’s matchup will be their fifth in eight days. It’ll also be their 13th since the all-star break.

Right now, Chicago has five true bullpen arms to go with four pseudo-starters. Four of the five legitimate relievers pitched on back-to-back days in Games 3 and 4.

Shota Imanaga figures to be involved for the Cubs, though he’ll be lined up on four days’ rest instead of his usual five-plus. In Game 2, Imanaga allowed four earned runs over 2.2 innings in a 7-3 loss.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, used seven relievers in a Game 2 bullpen day and five relievers in Game 3. The Brewers only have two stretched-out starters right now (Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester), and it’s likely that neither will be available in the decisive game.

Jacob Misiorowski should factor into this game for the Brewers. He tossed 3.0 scoreless innings (with four strikeouts) in relief in Game 2 … but he still has a 4.98 ERA in 11 outings since the all-star break.

The Cubs and Brewers cashed this over in both previous NLDS matchups in Milwaukee, totalling 22 runs in those games.

Playing in an enclosed ballpark eliminates the negative effect that fall weather in the Midwest can have on scoring.

Key stat: This over is 10-7 in head-to-head matchups between Chicago and Milwaukee these season. The average total in those games was 8.9 runs.

Cubs vs. Brewers picks made at 4:05 p.m. on 10/10/2025.

Cubs vs. Brewers Game 5 NLDS picks: Bet on Chourio, Vaughn to drive offence in Milwaukee

Only one NL Central team can squeeze its way into the NLCS, and we’ll have our answer on Saturday night in Milwaukee.

The pregame narrative: The Brewers host the Chicago Cubs in a win-or-go-home matchup in Game 5 of the NLDS. Milwaukee won the first two games of the series at home, but Chicago held serve in its home park. Neither team’s starting pitcher had been confirmed at the time of this writing.

Check out my Cubs vs. Brewers picks for Game 5 at American Family Field, featuring a two-leg prop bet featuring Jackson Chourio and Andrew Vaughn.

Cubs vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-109)

The Cubs and Brewers have seen a lot of each other. In my view, that should benefit the hitters.

Saturday’s matchup will be their fifth in eight days. It’ll also be their 13th since the all-star break.

Right now, Chicago has five true bullpen arms to go with four pseudo-starters. Four of the five legitimate relievers pitched on back-to-back days in Games 3 and 4.

Shota Imanaga figures to be involved for the Cubs, though he’ll be lined up on four days’ rest instead of his usual five-plus. In Game 2, Imanaga allowed four earned runs over 2.2 innings in a 7-3 loss.

Milwaukee, meanwhile, used seven relievers in a Game 2 bullpen day and five relievers in Game 3. The Brewers only have two stretched-out starters right now (Freddy Peralta, Quinn Priester), and it’s likely that neither will be available in the decisive game.

Jacob Misiorowski should factor into this game for the Brewers. He tossed 3.0 scoreless innings (with four strikeouts) in relief in Game 2 … but he still has a 4.98 ERA in 11 outings since the all-star break.

The Cubs and Brewers cashed this over in both previous NLDS matchups in Milwaukee, totalling 22 runs in those games.

Playing in an enclosed ballpark eliminates the negative effect that fall weather in the Midwest can have on scoring.

Key stat: This over is 10-7 in head-to-head matchups between Chicago and Milwaukee these season. The average total in those games was 8.9 runs.

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NLDS Game 5 prop bet

Parlay: Chourio, Vaughn 1+ hits each (-108): I made this prediction under the assumption that the left-handed Imanaga will pitch in Game 5 as either a starter or bulk reliever.

If that’s the case, both of these Brewers should have a good chance at getting a hit.

Chourio is 7-for-15 (.467) with a pair of doubles and a home run in the postseason. Against LHPs this season, he batted .343 with a 168 wRC+.

Vaughn is 3-for-10 (.300) with a HR in the postseason. Against LHPs this year, he batted .313 with a 142 wRC+.

Both players cashed this bet when Imanaga pitched in Game 2.

Cubs vs. Brewers picks made at 3:25 p.m. on 10/10/2025.

Michigan vs. USC college football Week 7 SGP predictions: Haynes, Lemon should shine in Southern California

Coming off a bye, the USC Trojans are hosting the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines in a marquee Big Ten matchup.

The pregame narrative: The Wolverines are slight road underdogs against the unranked Trojans, whose offence has been electric so far this season. Michigan ran the ball at will against USC last season, and I expect another run-heavy approach from the visitors again.

Check out my Michigan vs. USC same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 11, featuring prop bets on Justice Haynes and Makai Lemon.

Michigan vs. USC predictions

Parlay: Haynes over 105.5 rush yards | Lemon 80+ rec. yards | Under 64.5 points (+400)

Haynes over 105.5 rushing yards (-118): You’d almost never see a rushing yards line this high in the NFL, but I’m not blinking at it for Haynes.

He’s been used early and often, and his home run potential has flashed every game.

Haynes leads the Big Ten with 654 rushing yards, averaging 130.8 yards/game.

The Alabama transfer has 100+ yards in every game. He’s 4-1 vs. this prop, falling just short in the lone outlier (104 yards on 14 carries in a 60-point blowout vs. Central Michigan).

Haynes has a carry of 40+ yards in all five matchups.

Last season, Michigan rushed 46 times for 290 yards and three TDs vs. USC.

Haynes wasn’t there, mind you, and Michigan had an inept passing game with Alex Orji at the helm. But I think the Wolverines can deploy a similarly run-heavy strategy with success this time around.

USC’s defence ranks 123rd in rushing success rate, according to Game On Paper, and 62nd in EPA per rush.

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Full NCAAF betting markets

Wolverines vs. Trojans SGP picks

Lemon 80+ receiving yards (-148): Lemon is a star who will be catching passes on Sundays next fall. For now, the Trojans are surely grateful to have him.

The junior leads the Big Ten in receiving yards, averaging 117.8 yards/game

He has 8+ targets in four of five games, as well as 90+ yards in four of five.

Last time out, Lemon turned 16 targets in to 11 catches for 151 yards and two TDs.

Michigan has a solid defence, as usual, but it’s been a far better outfit against the run. The Wolverines’ defence ranks ninth in run success rate and 70th in pass success rate.

In both of its road games this season, Michigan has allowed an opposing receiver to clear 100 yards.

Under 64.5 points (-286): The highest over/under of Michigan’s season is 49 points, so this might seem like a comical number to tease up to. But that’s the USC effect.

The Trojans’ offence, led by Lemon and quarterback Jayden Maiava, has been electric:

1st in EPA per play
1st in success rate
1st in yards per game
3rd in points per game

Overs are 4-1 in USC’s games, with an average total of 71.4 points.

With all of that in mind, betting any under in a game involving USC can be a scary proposition. But if Michigan commits to running the ball the way I expect, I think the game will stay under this total.

The average total in Michigan’s games is 49.0 points.

Michigan vs. USC predictions made at 11:52 a.m. ET on 10/10/2025

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Lions vs. Chiefs Week 6 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on David Montgomery to stay involved, Detroit to cover as SNF underdogs

A pair of cross-conference Super Bowl hopefuls meet in Week 6 on Sunday Night Football.

The pregame narrative: The Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs are second and fourth, respectively, on the current Super Bowl 60 odds leaderboard. KC is a modest home favourite this week despite some truly stellar play of late on the Lions’ side.

Check out my Lions vs. Chiefs picks for the Sunday Night Football matchup on Oct. 12, featuring a prop prediction on David Montgomery.

Lions vs. Chiefs picks

Best bet: Montgomery over 10.5 rush attempts (-121)

Weekly prizes & bet boosts: Beat the Spread Challenge: ENTER NOW!

The Lions should want to run the ball a lot on Sunday night. To me, this line is a smash play.

For one thing, the Lions already run the ball a lot. They rank third in the NFL in run play percentage (49.67%), per Team Rankings.

The Chiefs’ run defence has struggled mightily. It ranks 30th in rush success rate and 31st in EPA per rush, according to RBSDM.com.

The catch is that Montgomery is the 1B in Detroit’s two-man backfield, having handed the 1A reins to Jahmyr Gibbs. So if Gibbs is rolling, Montgomery could see a smaller piece of the pie.

That wasn’t the case last week, though, when Montgomery rumbled for 65 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries against the Bengals.

Gibbs, meanwhile, had 12 carries for 54 yards.

It was the first time this season that Montgomery out-touched Gibbs on the ground since Week 1. I’m not expecting that to become a trend, but it tells me there’s room for both to be active.

Jared Goff is capable of airing it out, but Detroit’s offensive identity starts with its two-headed monster in the backfield. Montgomery has been steadily involved all season, and that shouldn’t change.

Key stat: Montgomery is 4-1 vs. this rush attempts prop, averaging 12.2 attempts per game.

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Sunday Night Football ATS pick

Lions +2.5 (-117): Detroit’s Week 1 flop in Green Bay feels like a distant memory.

That was the Lions’ first game without its Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, the former offensive and defensive coordinators who departed in the offseason for head coaching gigs. Maybe the team just needed a little longer to gel without them.

From Week 2 onward, Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS with a +76 point differential. The Lions are also No. 1 in offensive EPA and No. 2 in defensive EPA in that span.

I like the Lions to win outright at plus money, but backing them with a couple of extra points doesn’t hurt, either.

Since Dan Campbell took over as head coach in 2021, Detroit is 24-11 ATS as an underdog (68.6%, No. 2 hit rate in the NFL).

Kansas City has one fewer day of rest and is just 1-2 SU as a favourite on the season.

Lions vs. Chiefs picks made at 1:37 p.m. ET 10/10/2025.

NFL Week 6 TD picks and predictions: Bet on Kraft, Judkins and Smith-Njigba to score

One running back, one wideout and one tight end are featured in this week’s NFL TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Tucker Kraft has found the end zone twice at Lambeau Field already this season, and he draws an excellent matchup to get back in there on Sunday. In Pittsburgh, I’m looking for Quinshon Judkins to turn his mountain of red zone opportunities into points for the visiting Browns.

Check out my top Week 6 NFL TD picks, featuring Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

NFL TD picks: Week 6

Best bet: Kraft to score (+150)

Coming off a bye to play the woeful Cincinnati Bengals at home, the Green Bay Packers are the heftiest favourites of the week. They should win comfortably, and Kraft should get in on the fun.

Kraft balled out in Weeks 1 and 2 at home. He this bet in both games while posting a combined eight catches for 140 yards and two TDs.

The third-year tight end was an inch or two away from scoring in Green Bay’s most recent game (Week 4 at Dallas), but he tacked just shy of the end zone.

Dallas has one of the weakest defences in the NFL, and so does Cincinnati. The Bengals rank 30th in both points and yards allowed.

Cincy is also among the very worst at defending tight ends. The team has allowed four receiving touchdowns to opposing TEs, as well as the second-most catches per game (6.8) and the fourth-most yards (69.0).

As a 14.5-point favourite in a game with a 44.5-point over/under, Green Bay has an NFL-high implied total this week (29.5 points).

Backing someone as heavily involved as Kraft at this price feels like a bargain.

Key stat: Kraft leads the Packers in targets (20), receptions (16) and receiving yards (225).

Best NFL touchdown bets

Smith-Njigba to score (+105): As a second-year wideout in 2024, Smith-Njigba cleared 1,100 receiving yards and made the Pro Bowl. But his true breakout seems to be happening right now.

Through five games, JSN is second in the league in receiving yards (534) and first in yards per touch (14.7). He has 75+ yards in every game so far.

Smith-Njigba isn’t a hyper-targeted red zone guy, which is the one downside here. But his three red zone targets so far still lead the Seahawks.

Also, JSN has a catch of 40+ yards in four of five games. And 10 total catches of 20+ yards.

So even if he’s not peppered with passes in the red zone, his big-play ability can get him across the line.

On Sunday, JSN faces a Jaguars squad that has allowed 13.6 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers (tied for fourth-most in the NFL, per Sports Reference)

Judkins to score (+105): After a tumultuous offseason and an absence in Week 1, Judkins has taken over Cleveland’s backfield.

Last week, he accounted for 23 of 29 rush attempts among Browns running backs.

His carry count has risen every game since his Week 2 debut: 10, 18, 21, 23.

The red zone involvement for Judkins has been significant, too.

From Week 3 onward, Judkins has 14 red zone touches (all carries). The rest of the Cleveland offence has 11 RZ touches combined.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defence hasn’t had as many teeth as you’d typically expect. Right now, the group ranks 20th in success rate, per RBSDM.com, and outside the top 20 in points and yards allowed.

A low-scoring game is expected, but Judkins has the best chance of anyone to punch it in.

NFL TD picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 10/10/2025.

NFL Week 6 TD picks and predictions: Bet on Kraft, Judkins and Smith-Njigba to score

One running back, one wideout and one tight end are featured in this week’s NFL TD picks.

The pregame narrative: Tucker Kraft has found the end zone twice at Lambeau Field already this season, and he draws an excellent matchup to get back in there on Sunday. In Pittsburgh, I’m looking for Quinshon Judkins to turn his mountain of red zone opportunities into points for the visiting Browns.

Check out my top Week 6 NFL TD picks, featuring Seattle Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

NFL TD picks: Week 6

Best bet: Kraft to score (+180)