Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 4 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Fade two-way Shohei Ohtani at the plate

Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound Friday night with an opportunity to send the Los Angeles Dodgers back to the World Series.

The pregame narrative: The reigning champions have a 3-0 series lead over the top-seeded Brewers and are favoured to finish the job at home. Ohtani has been spectacular on the mound this year, but his offensive production typically declines when he’s working in a two-way capacity.

Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 4, featuring predictions on Ohtani and Brice Turang.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Turang under 0.5 hits (+110)

Turang took a big step offensively this season, posting a .288/.359/.435 slash line for the Brewers as part of a 5.5 bWAR campaign.

The reigning NL Platinum Glove winner (i.e., voted as the best of all Gold Glove recipients) seems to have a promising career ahead. But it’s been a rough postseason for the 25-year-old, and Ohtani likely won’t make things any easier.

After a two-hit game in the NLDS opener, Turang is just 2-for-27 (.074) with 10 strikeouts.

All in all, Turang gone under 0.5 hits in five of eight playoff games.

Ohtani has allowed just 13 hits and four runs over his past 25.2 innings.

Ohtani does his best work at home, and he’s also better against left-hitting batters. More bad news for Turang.

In seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year, Ohtani has a 1.71 ERA, a 12.9 K/9 and a .151 opponent batting average.

Against LHBs this year, Ohtani has a 38.6% K rate and a .179 opponent BA. Disgusting stuff.

Key stat: Based on Baseball Savant’s metrics, Turang has largely earned his woeful playoff production. He has a .125 BA and a .171 xBA — along with an unsightly 39.4% K rate.

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MLB best bets

Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (-112): Ohtani tripled in the first inning of NLCS Game 3, so I’m glad I didn’t make this pick yesterday.

I’m willing to fly in the face of the NL-MVP-to-be, though, due to the fact that he’s pitching Friday night. His offensive numbers tend to take a dive when he’s on the mound.

Ohtani has made 10 starts as a pitcher since the all-star break. In that span, he is 7-for-38 (.184) at the plate with 17 strikeouts.

On Oct. 4, in his first (and so far only) career postseason outing as a pitcher, Ohtani went 0-for-4 with four Ks and a walk.

Without knowing the Brewers’ exact pitching plans, it’s difficult to dive too deeply into the matchups Ohtani will see tonight.

But he’s struggled as a hitter throughout the postseason so far, so I’m comfortable plugging my nose and predicting this under.

Ohtani has a .158/.273/.368 slash line in nine playoff games and has cashed this under seven times.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 11:13 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on George Springer, Cal Raleigh to generate offence in Seattle

Can the Toronto Blue Jays take all three ALCS road games in Seattle? They’ll have an opportunity to do so in Game 5 on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: The best-of-seven ALCS is now effectively a best-of-three after Toronto evened things up yesterday. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em with Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller on the mound.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 5, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Cal Raleigh.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Springer over 1.5 bases | Raleigh over 0.5 hits | Over 7 runs (+250)

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+115): Springer started off the ALCS with a bang, homering on the first pitch he saw from Miller in Game 1.

After a renaissance regular season, Springer has kept his foot on the gas in October. He’s slugging .611 in eight games and is 5-0 vs. this prop in his past five.

Springer is 2-for-9 with a pair of homers off Miller, and there’s reason to believe he’s been shortchanged in this matchup. According to Baseball Savant, Springer has a .353 xBA and a 1.189 xSLG in those nine at-bats.

From the top of the Blue Jays’ lineup, Springer will have a shot at setting the tone again on Friday.

With his 98th-percentile xSLG (.592) and xBA (.303), this is a dangerous hitter that I want to continue buying in on.

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MLB SGP legs

Raleigh over 0.5 hits (-175): Raleigh turned in a rare hitless effort on Thursday. But if the Mariners are going to right the ship, he’ll almost certainly be one of the guys leading the way.

The AL MVP contender is still having a very strong postseason, with a .314/.429/.600 slash line in nine games. He’s 7-2 vs. this prop.

During the regular season, Raleigh led the majors in homers (60). He also finished fourth in OPS (.948), behind only Springer, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The HR Derby champ has seen Gausman well, batting 8-for-17 (.471) with four homers.

In Game 1, Raleigh singled off Gausman in the first and belted a game-tying homer in the sixth to spark a Seattle win.

Behind Raleigh, the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor has been awfully effective. It doesn’t make sense to pitch around the switch-hitting catcher, and I like his chances of getting something good to hit.

Toronto vs. Seattle over/under prediction

Over 7 runs (-112): I thought T-Mobile Park was supposed to be pitcher-friendly.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Seattle’s home stadium has yielded 17% fewer runs than league average over the past three seasons. In most respects, it’s considered the least offence-friendly park in the majors.

But this over is 5-0 when the Jays and Mariners have met there this season. Their average total in those matchups is 11.0 runs.

Toronto and Seattle also have the two highest overs rates in MLB this season (56.7% and 56.0%), per Team Rankings.

In the first Gausman/Miller go-round, the final score was 3-1 in favour of the Mariners. But the Blue Jays had a .241 xBA that translated to just a 2-for-29 (.069) showing.

Both offences are plenty familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point, having played four times in the previous five days.

I’ll gladly back an over that the winning team has cleared by itself in three straight games.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:55 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 5 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on George Springer, Cal Raleigh to generate offence in Seattle

Can the Toronto Blue Jays take all three ALCS road games in Seattle? They’ll have an opportunity to do so in Game 5 on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: The best-of-seven ALCS is now effectively a best-of-three after Toronto evened things up yesterday. Tonight’s matchup is a pick’em with Kevin Gausman and Bryce Miller on the mound.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 5, featuring prop bets on George Springer and Cal Raleigh.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Springer over 1.5 bases | Raleigh over 0.5 hits | Over 7 runs (+390)

Springer over 1.5 total bases (+116): Springer started off the ALCS with a bang, homering on the first pitch he saw from Miller in Game 1.

After a renaissance regular season, Springer has kept his foot on the gas in October. He’s slugging .611 in eight games and is 5-0 vs. this prop in his past five.

Springer is 2-for-9 with a pair of homers off Miller, and there’s reason to believe he’s been shortchanged in this matchup. According to Baseball Savant, Springer has a .353 xBA and a 1.189 xSLG in those nine at-bats.

From the top of the Blue Jays’ lineup, Springer will have a shot at setting the tone again on Friday.

With his 98th-percentile xSLG (.592) and xBA (.303), this is a dangerous hitter that I want to continue buying in on.

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MLB SGP legs

Raleigh over 0.5 hits (-175): Raleigh turned in a rare hitless effort on Thursday. But if the Mariners are going to right the ship, he’ll almost certainly be one of the guys leading the way.

The AL MVP contender is still having a very strong postseason, with a .314/.429/.600 slash line in nine games. He’s 7-2 vs. this prop.

During the regular season, Raleigh led the majors in homers (60). He also finished fourth in OPS (.948), behind only Springer, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

The HR Derby champ has seen Gausman well, batting 8-for-17 (.471) with four homers.

In Game 1, Raleigh singled off Gausman in the first and belted a game-tying homer in the sixth to spark a Seattle win.

Behind Raleigh, the trio of Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco and Josh Naylor has been awfully effective. It doesn’t make sense to pitch around the switch-hitting catcher, and I like his chances of getting something good to hit.

Toronto vs. Seattle over/under prediction

Over 7 runs (-112): I thought T-Mobile Park was supposed to be pitcher-friendly.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Seattle’s home stadium has yielded 17% fewer runs than league average over the past three seasons. In most respects, it’s considered the least offence-friendly park in the majors.

But this over is 5-0 when the Jays and Mariners have met there this season. Their average total in those matchups is 11.0 runs.

Toronto and Seattle also have the two highest overs rates in MLB this season (56.7% and 56.0%), per Team Rankings.

In the first Gausman/Miller go-round, the final score was 3-1 in favour of the Mariners. But the Blue Jays had a .241 xBA that translated to just a 2-for-29 (.069) showing.

Both offences are plenty familiar with the opposing pitching staffs at this point, having played four times in the previous five days.

I’ll gladly back an over that the winning team has cleared by itself in three straight games.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:25 a.m. on 10/17/2025.

College football Week 8 prop picks: Bet on USC’s Lemon vs. Notre Dame, fade Kentucky’s Cutter Boley vs. Texas

Makai Lemon continues putting on a show for the USC Trojans, and I expect that to continue in a huge matchup against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

The latest: Lemon will need to come up big if No. 20 USC is going to knock off No. 13 Notre Dame without the bulk of its running game. Elsewhere, Sedrick Alexander looks to get to double-digit touchdowns for the Vanderbilt Commodores.

Check out my favourite Week 8 college football prop picks, featuring a prediction on Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Cutter Boley.

College football prop picks

Best bet: Lemon over 90.5 receiving yards (-118)

This is a pretty square play, but I don’t think this line shows enough respect to Lemon given the circumstances.

USC’s top two running backs, Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders, have both been ruled out due to injury. And Lemon currently leads the Big Ten in receptions (44) and receiving yards (682).

Notre Dame’s secondary lost a pair of studs to the NFL this spring. The remaining group has been solid but not superb (rankings via Game On Paper):

57th in EPA per dropback
72nd in pass success rate

Lemon is 4-2 vs. this yardage line, but he landed on exactly 90 yards in one of the unders.

In his past three games, Lemon has 28 catches, 371 yards and four TDs on 34 targets. Notre Dame knows to key on him, but I don’t think that will matter.

Key stat: Halfway through the season, Lemon is averaging 113.7 receiving yards per game.

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CFB prop bets

Alexander anytime TD (-103): Alexander has nine TDs through six games, which leads the SEC.

The LSU Tigers are a tough bunch to score on, but Alexander’s dual-threat ability as a tailback and pass-catcher will help the cause.

Alexander has 50 carries and five rushing TDs so far. He also has eight catches and four receiving TDs.

Last time out, Alexander provided all the scoring for Vanderbilt in a 30-14 loss to Alabama. He broke off a 65-yard TD run in the first quarter and followed up with a four-yard receiving touchdown near halftime.

Even if Vandy is largely held in check by LSU, Alexander should be at the centre of the Commodores’ offensive plans. That makes this near-even play enticing.

Boley under 0.5 passing TDs (+112): Texas has one of the best defences in the country, ranking inside the top 10 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush and average third-down distance.

Kentucky quarterback Cutter Boley will likely be in plenty of obvious passing situations, but that doesn’t mean he’s going to convert any into points.

In two SEC games so far, the redshirt freshman is 1-1 vs. this prop with two passing touchdowns, three interceptions and a miserable 5.8 yards per attempt.

Texas has only allowed three passing TDs across six total games so far, going 4-2 vs. this prop. Things should be a bit easier for Bowley at home, but I like the plus-money value of fading an inexperienced QB against a vaunted defence.

College football prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. on 10/16/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Addison Barger to help drive Toronto’s offence

After an overdue offensive explosion Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays are a game away from levelling the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: The Jays blew out the Seattle Mariners, 13-4, to set up a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Thursday night at T-Mobile Park. Luis Castillo will pitch for the home team, opposite Max Scherzer in his Toronto postseason debut.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 4, featuring prop bets on Addison Barger and Anthony Santander.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Barger to record a hit | Santander under 0.5 hits | Over 5.5 runs (+300)

Barger to record a hit (-138): Barger broke out of a mini-slump in a major way on Wednesday night.

After an 0-for-10 start to the ALCS, Barger blasted a 414-foot home run late into Game 3. Here’s hoping he can breathe a sigh of relief and keep on slugging for the Jays.

The left-hitting third baseman has seen the ball well from Castillo already this season, batting 3-for-5 with three doubles and a walk.

LHBs have a .278 average and an .814 OPS off Castillo this season.

Barger often gets his money’s worth when he swings, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile bat speed and 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (per Baseball Savant).

With the platoon advantage, Barger over 1.5 bases at +190 is a pretty interesting solo play. But I’ll stick to this safer pick in a parlay format.

Barger has a .480 SLG vs. right-handed pitchers this season.

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MLB SGP legs

Santander under 0.5 hits (+105): As a switch-hitter, Santander never explicitly has a platoon disadvantage. But he hasn’t set the world on fire from the left side, and his numbers against Castillo are rough.

Santander batted .185 with a .606 OPS from the left side this year.

Against Castillo, Santander is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts.

The first-year Blue Jay missed significant time this year due to injury, and he doesn’t seem to be 100% right in October.

He was scratched from the lineup in Game 2 with lower back tightness, and he was lifted in the fifth inning of Game 3 for a defensive replacement.

Sure, the game seemed largely out of hand at that point. But Santander’s weak fielding profile could be a factor that forces him out of any game early.

In five postseason starts, Santander is 3-for-15 (.200) and has been pulled early three times.

Toronto vs. Seattle alt total prediction

Over 5.5 runs (-275): The negative correlation with the Santander under makes this super-juiced leg a worthy SGP addition.

This over is 7-2 in this year’s matchups between Toronto and Seattle. The average total in those games is 9.9 runs.

Castillo has allowed eight runs on 17 hits in 10.0 innings vs. the Blue Jays this year. Both of his starts cleared this number with ease.

Castillo has been superb in recent starts, with just three runs allowed over his past 30.0 IP. But even if we see that version of him, rather than the one the Jays beat up on this year, there’s a pathway to this over.

Scherzer has allowed four or more runs in six of his past seven outings. In that span, he’s allowed 25 runs and 37 hits in 25.0 IP. Woof.

Toronto and Seattle rank No. 1 and 2, respectively, in overs rate this year (both over 55.0%), per Team Rankings.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 9:55 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners Game 4 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Addison Barger to help drive Toronto’s offence

After an overdue offensive explosion Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays are a game away from levelling the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: The Jays blew out the Seattle Mariners, 13-4, to set up a pivotal Game 4 matchup on Thursday night at T-Mobile Park. Luis Castillo will pitch for the home team, opposite Max Scherzer in his Toronto postseason debut.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions for ALCS Game 4, featuring prop bets on Addison Barger and Anthony Santander.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions

Parlay: Barger to record a hit | Santander under 0.5 hits | Over 5.5 runs (+410)

Barger to record a hit (-132): Barger broke out of a mini-slump in a major way on Wednesday night.

After an 0-for-10 start to the ALCS, Barger blasted a 414-foot home run late into Game 3. Here’s hoping he can breathe a sigh of relief and keep on slugging for the Jays.

The left-hitting third baseman has seen the ball well from Castillo already this season, batting 3-for-5 with three doubles and a walk.

LHBs have a .278 average and an .814 OPS off Castillo this season.

Barger often gets his money’s worth when he swings, evidenced by his 93rd-percentile bat speed and 91st-percentile hard-hit rate (per Baseball Savant).

With the platoon advantage, Barger over 1.5 bases at +190 is a pretty interesting solo play. But I’ll stick to this safer pick in a parlay format.

Barger has a .480 SLG vs. right-handed pitchers this season.

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MLB SGP legs

Santander under 0.5 hits (+110): As a switch-hitter, Santander never explicitly has a platoon disadvantage. But he hasn’t set the world on fire from the left side, and his numbers against Castillo are rough.

Santander batted .185 with a .606 OPS from the left side this year.

Against Castillo, Santander is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts.

The first-year Blue Jay missed significant time this year due to injury, and he doesn’t seem to be 100% right in October.

He was scratched from the lineup in Game 2 with lower back tightness, and he was lifted in the fifth inning of Game 3 for a defensive replacement.

Sure, the game seemed largely out of hand at that point. But Santander’s weak fielding profile could be a factor that forces him out of any game early.

In five postseason starts, Santander is 3-for-15 (.200) and has been pulled early three times.

Toronto vs. Seattle alt total prediction

Over 5.5 runs (-315): The negative correlation with the Santander under makes this super-juiced leg a worthy SGP addition.

This over is 7-2 in this year’s matchups between Toronto and Seattle. The average total in those games is 9.9 runs.

Castillo has allowed eight runs on 17 hits in 10.0 innings vs. the Blue Jays this year. Both of his starts cleared this number with ease.

Castillo has been superb in recent starts, with just three runs allowed over his past 30.0 IP. But even if we see that version of him, rather than the one the Jays beat up on this year, there’s a pathway to this over.

Scherzer has allowed four or more runs in six of his past seven outings. In that span, he’s allowed 25 runs and 37 hits in 25.0 IP. Woof.

Toronto and Seattle rank No. 1 and 2, respectively, in overs rate this year (both over 55.0%), per Team Rankings.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions as of 8:55 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

College football Week 8 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Ole Miss’ Cayden Lee, Utah vs. BYU

It’s a loaded week in NCAA Division I football, and we’ve got four predictions featuring some of the best teams.

The pregame narrative: The Ohio State Buckeyes have been as dominant as anyone so far, and they should be able to handle the Wisconsin Badgers with ease. In a top-10 matchup between the Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels, look for Cayden Lee to make his mark in between the hedges.

Check out the best college football Week 8 picks, featuring a prediction for the Utah Utes vs. BYU Cougars matchup.

College football picks Week 8

Best bet: Iowa -3 (-106)

I wish I knew what this line would’ve been before the season. A lot has changed since then, at least on the Penn State side.

The Nittany Lions were in the Big Ten championship game and the College Football Playoff last year. But their 2025 season has gone off the rails.

Penn State has lost three games in a row, including two in which it was favoured by 21+ points. Quarterback Drew Allar is out for the year with an injury, and head coach James Franklin was ousted after the team’s most recent defeat.

Times are tough in State College, and I doubt they’ll get any easier this week in the hostile environment of Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium.

The Hawkeyes are 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games, which includes a 20-15 loss (as 9-point underdogs) vs. No. 3 Indiana a few weeks back.

I picked Iowa to cover a -3 spread last week in Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes came up big with a 37-0 win.

Penn State still has two talented running backs in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, but Iowa is stout against the run (2.8 yards per carry, eighth in D-I).

Given how much Penn State’s stock has tanked in the past week, this is a worthwhile number to back a solid Iowa team at home.

Key stat: Penn State is 0-6 ATS, losing each of its past three games outright as a favourite.

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More college football picks: Week 8

Lee over 45.5 receiving yards (-118): In arguably the biggest matchup of the week, No. 5 Ole Miss visits No. 9 Georgia. Lee should be an X-factor for the Rebs.

The third-year wideout has been steadily productive in the past four games:

Sept. 13: 3 catches, 75 yards
Sept. 20: 2 catches, 60 yards
Sept. 27: 4 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
Oct. 11: 3 catches, 56 yards, 1 TD

Coinciding with Lee’s production uptick is the ascendence of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. The former D-II quarterback took over for the injured Austin Simmons and has been lighting it up.

I wouldn’t hate seeing a greater volume of receptions from Lee, but his big-play ability has shined through.

Georgia’s defence is gettable through the air. The Dawgs rank 84th in defensive EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper (compared to eighth in defensive EPA per rush).

Lee put up 81 yards on four catches against Georgia last year.

Utah over 26.5 points (-118): One of the pluses of conference realignment is the annual reinstatement of the Holy War, a rivalry game that’s renewed this week in Provo, Utah.

No. 15 BYU is a home underdog against No. 23 Utah, which probably has something to do with their strength-of-schedule discrepancy.

The Utes have the 71st-ranked schedule, per ESPN, while the Cougars rank 85th in that regard.

Utah has a dangerous dual threat quarterback named Devon Dampier. The transfer from New Mexico leads the Big 12 in completion percentage (71.5%) and has rushed for five TDs and 5.8 yards per carry.

Having scored 30+ points in five of their six games, the Utes should be able to cash this bet. They rank fifth in the country in offensive success rate.

BYU just coughed up 27 points to a mediocre Arizona team that ranks 72nd in success rate.

No. 1 Ohio State vs. Wisconsin ATS pick

Ohio State -25 (-110): Coming off a shutout loss at home to Iowa, the Wisconsin Badgers have to face the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. This could — and should — be ugly.

Ohio State is 5-0-1 ATS this year and has won its six games by an average of 30.0 points.

The Buckeyes are scoring 36.8 PPG, while the Badgers have only scored 34 total points in their past four games.

Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS at home this season.

Advanced stats swing heavily in Ohio State’s favour. The Buckeyes rank third in net EPA per play, while the Badgers sit way down at 109th.

Offensively, the Buckeyes should be able to blow the doors off the Badgers. Ohio State is third in offensive success rate; Wisconsin is 93rd.

Despite facing excessive roster/coaching turnover following its national championship season, Ohio State has hardly missed a beat. The Buckeyes should bury the Badgers on Saturday.

College football picks made at 4:50 p.m. on 10/15/2025.