The Toronto Blue Jays have forced a Game 7 on home turf, setting up an opportunity to clinch a World Series berth on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto dug out of an early two-game deficit against the Seattle Mariners, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helping lead the charge on offence. Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a laser of a home run in Game 6, continuing his statistical rampage through the playoffs.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 20, featuring predictions on Guerrero, Shane Bieber and J.P. Crawford.
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Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks
Best bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (+100)
It’s been a magical postseason ride for the Blue Jays, and right in the middle of it all is their $500-million superstar.
From a power perspective, Guerrero’s 2025 regular season was a disappointment to many. But he has been an absolute wrecking ball in the playoffs.
- Through 10 postseason games, Guerrero has 11 runs and a .462/.532/1.000 slash line.
- Guerrero has driven himself in six times with home runs, including HRs in three of the past four ALCS games.
Is a .462 batting average sustainable over a large sample? No, but we’re not here to project anything further out than tonight.
And Guerrero’s .408 xBA in the postseason, as gauged by Baseball Savant, tells me he’s not lucking into much of this production. The all-star first baseman also reached base 24 times while only striking out twice.
-> Bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to come up big in Game 7!
The last time Guerrero dug in against Mariners starter George Kirby, he went 3-for-3 with a single, double and home run.
Kirby coughed up eight earned runs over 4.0 innings, and Guerrero had two of them.
It’d be tough to be more locked in than Vladdy is right now, and this is a matchup he has thrived in already in this series. Backing him to score at even money is something I’ll do gladly.
Key stat: Since Game 3 of the ALCS, Guerrero has scored six runs while reaching base in 12 of 18 plate appearances.
MLB prop picks
Bieber over 4.5 Ks (-132): How quick will the hook be from Jays manager John Schneider tonight?
That’s the key question when looking at Bieber’s strikeouts line. Because in a vacuum, this is at least one strikeout below what I’d typically expect the former Cy Young winner to see.
- Last night, rookie Trey Yesavage had enough rope from Schneider to throw 87 pitches over 5.2 innings — facing multiple bases-loaded situations along the way. Yesavage struck out seven.
- Bieber, who has worked into the sixth inning or later in seven of nine starts this year (playoffs and regular season) should be afforded a similar opportunity.
- Last time out, Bieber fanned eight Mariners over 6.0 innings. He garnered a 37.8% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant, which is far above MLB average (25.3%).
-> See Shane Bieber’s Game 7 props at NorthStar Bets
Crawford over 0.5 hits (-139): Crawford has surprisingly good numbers against Bieber, and that has me interested in taking a flier on his bat in the bottom-third of the lineup.
- Crawford is 7-for-14 vs. Bieber. All of the hits were singles, but that’s perfectly fine for this prop.
- In the postseason, Crawford is 6-5 vs. this prop. He only has a .189 average (7-for-37), but his .269 xBA, per Baseball Savant, suggests the contact quality has been solid.
Crawford is hitless in his past three games, though he’s reached safely with three walks in that span.
I expect him to put the ball in play against Bieber, whose 4.4% walk rate is among the lowest in the majors (for context, league average is 8.4%).
Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:35 a.m. on 10/20/2025.
