Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

NFL Week 9 upset picks: Bills, Bengals are worth backing as home underdogs

There are eight home underdogs in this week’s action, and I’m backing two of them as NFL upset picks.

The pregame narrative: In Buffalo, the Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the game of the week. Buffalo is only getting points at home for the sixth time since 2020. Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals look to bounce back against a Chicago Bears team that hasn’t fared well on the road.

Check out my top Week 9 NFL upset picks for games on Nov. 2.

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NFL upset picks: Week 9

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Best bet: Bills moneyline (+110)

The Bills are barely underdogs this week, but I’m happy to back them at home at any number with a “+” sign in front of it.

Since 2022 regular season, the Bills are 28-5 at home. Their .840 win percentage at home in that span is the best in the NFL.

The Chiefs come to town looking like a Death Star again, winning five of their past six games by 13+ points. So if anyone was going to lay points as visitors in Western New York, it’s these guys.

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But let’s not give KC too much credit. During their recent 5-1 stretch, four of the games were at home. And they only obtained one reputable win (vs. Lions).

Their others wins came against the Giants, Ravens, Raiders and Commanders — teams with a combined 9-21 record.

And the last time the Chiefs were on the road, they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-28, as 3.5-point favourites.

Buffalo had some shaky results ahead of its Week 7 bye, but the team came out of it with a get-right effort in Carolina (40-9 win). The Bills are a balanced squad, ranking in the top 10 in scoring on both sides of the ball.

Also, Buffalo has owned KC in regular season matchups in recent seasons. It’s the playoff showdowns that tend to break the Chiefs’ way.

Over the previous four seasons, the Bills are 4-0 with a +34 point differential in regular season games vs. the Chiefs.

Key stat: Since 2020, the Bills have only been home underdogs five times. They’re 4-1 SU in those games.

NFL underdog predictions

Bengals moneyline (+130): The New York Jets had been the final winless team in the NFL … until the Bengals handed them a win last week.

Somehow, the Bengals choked away a 15-point lead — at home — against the Jets. Not great.

But hey, they did beat the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers at home the week before (as 5.5-point underdogs).

Cincy is a +3 home dog this week against a Bears squad that has been pretty sloppy on the road. I just don’t think the Bears deserve to be favoured.

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Chicago is 2-2 SU on the road, but both of its wins came by exactly one point. The losses, including last week’s 30-16 drubbing in Baltimore, came by a combined 45 points.

One aspect of this pick to keep an eye on closer to kickoff is the health status of Cincinnati quarterback Joe Flacco. He left last week’s loss to the Jets due to a shoulder sprain but returned before the end of the game.

Flacco’s backup is Jake Browning, who is 3-2 for the Bengals in home starts (since joining the NFL in 2023).

NFL upset picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 10/29/2025.

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NFL Week 9 upset picks: Bills, Bengals are worth backing as home underdogs

There are eight home underdogs in this week’s action, and I’m backing two of them as NFL upset picks.

The pregame narrative: In Buffalo, the Bills take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the game of the week. Buffalo is only getting points at home for the sixth time since 2020. Elsewhere, the Cincinnati Bengals look to bounce back against a Chicago Bears team that hasn’t fared well on the road.

Check out my top Week 9 NFL upset picks for games on Nov. 2.

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NFL upset picks: Week 9

Best bet: Bills moneyline (+108)

The Bills are barely underdogs this week, but I’m happy to back them at home at any number with a “+” sign in front of it.

Since 2022 regular season, the Bills are 28-5 at home. Their .840 win percentage at home in that span is the best in the NFL.

The Chiefs come to town looking like a Death Star again, winning five of their past six games by 13+ points. So if anyone was going to lay points as visitors in Western New York, it’s these guys.

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But let’s not give KC too much credit. During their recent 5-1 stretch, four of the games were at home. And they only obtained one reputable win (vs. Lions).

Their others wins came against the Giants, Ravens, Raiders and Commanders — teams with a combined 9-21 record.

And the last time the Chiefs were on the road, they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 31-28, as 3.5-point favourites.

Buffalo had some shaky results ahead of its Week 7 bye, but the team came out of it with a get-right effort in Carolina (40-9 win). The Bills are a balanced squad, ranking in the top 10 in scoring on both sides of the ball.

Also, Buffalo has owned KC in regular season matchups in recent seasons. It’s the playoff showdowns that tend to break the Chiefs’ way.

Over the previous four seasons, the Bills are 4-0 with a +34 point differential in regular season games vs. the Chiefs.

Key stat: Since 2020, the Bills have only been home underdogs five times. They’re 4-1 SU in those games.

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NFL underdog predictions

Bengals moneyline (+130): The New York Jets had been the final winless team in the NFL … until the Bengals handed them a win last week.

Somehow, the Bengals choked away a 15-point lead — at home — against the Jets. Not great.

But hey, they did beat the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers at home the week before (as 5.5-point underdogs).

Cincy is a +3 home dog this week against a Bears squad that has been pretty sloppy on the road. I just don’t think the Bears deserve to be favoured.

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Chicago is 2-2 SU on the road, but both of its wins came by exactly one point. The losses, including last week’s 30-16 drubbing in Baltimore, came by a combined 45 points.

One aspect of this pick to keep an eye on closer to kickoff is the health status of Cincinnati quarterback Joe Flacco. He left last week’s loss to the Jets due to a shoulder sprain but returned before the end of the game.

Flacco’s backup is Jake Browning, who is 3-2 for the Bengals in home starts (since joining the NFL in 2023).

NFL upset picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 10/29/2025.

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Grizzlies vs. Suns SGP predictions Oct. 29: Devin Booker should fill the net at home

In the 10th and final NBA game of the night, the Memphis Grizzlies visit the struggling Phoenix Suns on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is 1-3 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS to start the season. And the team is on a five-game losing skid vs. Memphis dating back to January 2024. The Suns are slight underdogs in a game with the highest projected total of the night.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Suns SGP predictions for Oct. 29, with prop bets on Devin Booker and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

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Grizzlies vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Booker over 30.5 pts | Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 threes | Over 239.5 points (+295)

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Booker over 30.5 points (-118): With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal gone, the Suns aren’t exactly teeming with scoring options.

Booker is the obvious (and justified) alpha dog of the bunch. I expect him to act like it on Wednesday.

Four games into the season, Booker has already scored 30+ points three times. He’s shooting 50.7% from the floor

Booker is eighth in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (10.3), and he’s canning them at an 80.5% clip.

-> Bet on Devin Booker to go off vs. Grizzlies

Phoenix’s most high-volume shooter is Dillon Brooks (19.7 FGA), but he’s out tonight with a groin injury. So expect even more shots for Booker.

The Grizzlies have allowed the most PPG to opposing shooting guards so far this season (29.46), according to Fantasy Pros.

NBA SGP legs

Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 threes (-143): No one has really gotten going from beyond the arc for the Grizzlies yet, but Caldwell-Pope’s steady shot volume from deep makes him stand out to me.

4+ attempted 3s in every game
1+ made 3s in every game
2-2 vs. this milestone

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KCP has averaged 5.3 attempted 3s per game, and if he keeps that up, this pick will be in play on a nightly basis.

Phoenix is currently allowing the ninth-highest 3PT% in the NBA (37.6%).

Last year was a bit of a lost season for KCP in Orlando, but he’s still known as a sharpshooter from deep. In five seasons from 2019-24, he posted a 40.3 3PT%.

Over 239.5 points (-138): Neither team has put on a defensive clinic to this point, and I expect tons of scoring on both sides tonight.

Overs are 3-1-0 in Grizzlies games so far, thanks in large part to their lightning-quick pace (No. 2 in the NBA).

Overs are 4-0-0 in Suns games so far, thanks in large part to their brutally poor defensive rating (No. 29 in the NBA).

Memphis’ games have averaged 247.5 points and cashed this over in three of four games. If the Grizzlies continue to push the pace, the scoring will follow.

Two notable players on the defensive end, Brooks and Zach Edey (Grizzlies), are out tonight. Their absences should help free up some scoring opportunities, too.

Grizzlies vs. Suns predictions made at 1:40 p.m. ET 10/29/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Game 5 World Series SGP predictions: Ride with Kirk and Clement in a +525 same-game parlay

Trey Yesavage and Blake Snell are back on the mound for the second time in the World Series with Game 5 on tap Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Fall Classic is now effectively a best-of-three after the Toronto Blue Jays evened things up on Tuesday night. For Wednesday, Snell and the Los Angeles Dodgers are favoured to win at home.

Check out my same-game parlay Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring Snell, Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement.

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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions

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Snell under 6.5 Ks | Kirk 1+ hits | Clement 1+ hits | Over 7.5 runs (+525)

Snell under 6.5 Ks (-130): Snell facing the Blue Jays’ exceptionally disciplined lineup is a bit of an unstoppable-force-vs.-immovable-object situation.

The southpaw has an 11.2 K/9 in his career, which is the highest rate in MLB history. Entering the World Series, Snell had 28 Ks over 21.0 innings in postseason play.

But the Blue Jays are as tough of a matchup as any when it comes to strikeouts.

Toronto had the lowest K rate in the majors during the regular season (17.8%), and the club has pared that down even further in the playoffs (16.2%).

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In Game 1, Toronto struck out four times vs. Snell over 5.0 innings. The Jays did a ton of damage off the left-hander, converting 11 baserunners into five runs.

Against most teams, backing Snell to clear this strikeout line would be a no-brainer. But it’s a different story with the Jays.

Opposing starters have gone under 6.5 Ks in 14 of Toronto’s 15 playoff games.

MLB SGP picks

Kirk 1+ hits (-175): Kirk was an absolute menace in Game 1, going 3-for-3 with a two-run homer and a walk. He reached base in all three plate appearances against Snell.

Now, Kirk is 5-for-7 lifetime vs. Snell with two walks and a strikeout. He certainly sees the two-time Cy Young winner better than most.

In the 2025 postseason, Kirk is 10-5 vs. this prop while batting .254. And there’s reason to believe his numbers could be better.

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According to Baseball Savant, Kirk has a .281 xBA in the postseason.

Kirk has been blasting the ball this series, with seven of 12 balls in play registering as hard-hit (i.e., 95+ mph exit velocity. For context, the average hard-hit rate this season was 40.9%.

There’s plenty to admire about Kirk’s approach at the plate right now.

Clement 1+ hits (-209): Clement’s name doesn’t carry any prestige, but he’s performing like a star this postseason and looks like a great candidate to get a hit tonight.

Clement is 13-2 vs. this prop in the postseason while batting .393.

He’s on a 10-game hit streak entering Wednesday’s matchup.

During the regular season, Clement batting .326 vs. LHPs (11th in the majors).

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What more is there to say? He almost never strikes out (97th-percentile K rate) and he almost never walks (sixth-percentile walk rate), which means the ball is very likely to be put in play.

Clement recorded a second-inning single vs. Snell in Game 1 as part of a 2-for-4 night.

Over/under prediction

Over 7.5 runs (-143): As the prop predictions above might indicate, I’m expecting some offence tonight.

And really, based on how the series has gone, this over is perfectly attainable.

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Toronto has the highest overs rate in MLB this season (57.1%), per Team Rankings.

This over is 3-1 in the World Series and 5-2 in Jays/Dodgers matchups this season.

The average total in Jays/Dodgers matchups this year is 9.3 runs.

When Yesavage faced Snell in Game 1, the Blue Jays came away with an 11-4 win.

This will be the third day in a row for both bullpens to operate, and it’ll feel a bit like a fourth day in a row after Monday’s 18-inning marathon.

Hitters should be at an advantage from a familiarity standpoint.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions as of 12:25 p.m. on 10/29/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Game 5 World Series SGP predictions: Ride with Kirk and Clement in a +510 same-game parlay

Trey Yesavage and Blake Snell are back on the mound for the second time in the World Series with Game 5 on tap Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Fall Classic is now effectively a best-of-three after the Toronto Blue Jays evened things up on Tuesday night. For Wednesday, Snell and the Los Angeles Dodgers are favoured to win at home.

Check out my same-game parlay Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions, featuring Snell, Alejandro Kirk and Ernie Clement.

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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions

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Snell under 6.5 Ks | Kirk 1+ hits | Clement 1+ hits | Over 7.5 runs (+510)

Snell under 6.5 Ks (-113): Snell facing the Blue Jays’ exceptionally disciplined lineup is a bit of an unstoppable-force-vs.-immovable-object situation.

The southpaw has an 11.2 K/9 in his career, which is the highest rate in MLB history. Entering the World Series, Snell had 28 Ks over 21.0 innings in postseason play.

But the Blue Jays are as tough of a matchup as any when it comes to strikeouts.

Toronto had the lowest K rate in the majors during the regular season (17.8%), and the club has pared that down even further in the playoffs (16.2%).

-> Bet on World Series Game 5 at NorthStar Bets

In Game 1, Toronto struck out four times vs. Snell over 5.0 innings. The Jays did a ton of damage off the left-hander, converting 11 baserunners into five runs.

Against most teams, backing Snell to clear this strikeout line would be a no-brainer. But it’s a different story with the Jays.

Opposing starters have gone under 6.5 Ks in 14 of Toronto’s 15 playoff games.

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MLB SGP picks

Kirk 1+ hits (-152): Kirk was an absolute menace in Game 1, going 3-for-3 with a two-run homer and a walk. He reached base in all three plate appearances against Snell.

Now, Kirk is 5-for-7 lifetime vs. Snell with two walks and a strikeout. He certainly sees the two-time Cy Young winner better than most.

In the 2025 postseason, Kirk is 10-5 vs. this prop while batting .254. And there’s reason to believe his numbers could be better.

-> Add Alejandro Kirk to your same-game parlay!

According to Baseball Savant, Kirk has a .281 xBA in the postseason.

Kirk has been blasting the ball this series, with seven of 12 balls in play registering as hard-hit (i.e., 95+ mph exit velocity. For context, the average hard-hit rate this season was 40.9%.

There’s plenty to admire about Kirk’s approach at the plate right now.

Clement 1+ hits (-159): Clement’s name doesn’t carry any prestige, but he’s performing like a star this postseason and looks like a great candidate to get a hit tonight.

Clement is 13-2 vs. this prop in the postseason while batting .393.

He’s on a 10-game hit streak entering Wednesday’s matchup.

During the regular season, Clement batting .326 vs. LHPs (11th in the majors).

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What more is there to say? He almost never strikes out (97th-percentile K rate) and he almost never walks (sixth-percentile walk rate), which means the ball is very likely to be put in play.

Clement recorded a second-inning single vs. Snell in Game 1 as part of a 2-for-4 night.

Over/under prediction

Over 7.5 runs (-137): As the prop predictions above might indicate, I’m expecting some offence tonight.

And really, based on how the series has gone, this over is perfectly attainable.

-> Build your own Blue Jays vs. Dodgers SGP!

Toronto has the highest overs rate in MLB this season (57.1%), per Team Rankings.

This over is 3-1 in the World Series and 5-2 in Jays/Dodgers matchups this season.

The average total in Jays/Dodgers matchups this year is 9.3 runs.

When Yesavage faced Snell in Game 1, the Blue Jays came away with an 11-4 win.

This will be the third day in a row for both bullpens to operate, and it’ll feel a bit like a fourth day in a row after Monday’s 18-inning marathon.

Hitters should be at an advantage from a familiarity standpoint.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers predictions as of 12:25 p.m. on 10/29/2025.

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Grizzlies vs. Suns SGP predictions Oct. 29: Devin Booker should fill the net at home

In the 10th and final NBA game of the night, the Memphis Grizzlies visit the struggling Phoenix Suns on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is 1-3 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS to start the season. And the team is on a five-game losing skid vs. Memphis dating back to January 2024. The Suns are slight underdogs in a game with the highest projected total of the night.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Suns SGP predictions for Oct. 29, with prop bets on Devin Booker and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

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Grizzlies vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Booker over 29.5 pts | Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 threes | Over 239.5 points (+350)

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Booker over 29.5 points (-122): With Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal gone, the Suns aren’t exactly teeming with scoring options.

Booker is the obvious (and justified) alpha dog of the bunch. I expect him to act like it on Wednesday.

Four games into the season, Booker has already scored 30+ points three times. He’s shooting 50.7% from the floor

Booker is eighth in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (10.3), and he’s canning them at an 80.5% clip.

-> Bet on Devin Booker to go off vs. Grizzlies

Phoenix’s most high-volume shooter is Dillon Brooks (19.7 FGA), but he’s out tonight with a groin injury. So expect even more shots for Booker.

The Grizzlies have allowed the most PPG to opposing shooting guards so far this season (29.46), according to Fantasy Pros.

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NBA SGP legs

Caldwell-Pope over 1.5 threes (-134): No one has really gotten going from beyond the arc for the Grizzlies yet, but Caldwell-Pope’s steady shot volume from deep makes him stand out to me.

4+ attempted 3s in every game
1+ made 3s in every game
2-2 vs. this milestone

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KCP has averaged 5.3 attempted 3s per game, and if he keeps that up, this pick will be in play on a nightly basis.

Phoenix is currently allowing the ninth-highest 3PT% in the NBA (37.6%).

Last year was a bit of a lost season for KCP in Orlando, but he’s still known as a sharpshooter from deep. In five seasons from 2019-24, he posted a 40.3 3PT%.

Over 239.5 points (-127): Neither team has put on a defensive clinic to this point, and I expect tons of scoring on both sides tonight.

Overs are 3-1-0 in Grizzlies games so far, thanks in large part to their lightning-quick pace (No. 2 in the NBA).

Overs are 4-0-0 in Suns games so far, thanks in large part to their brutally poor defensive rating (No. 29 in the NBA).

Memphis’ games have averaged 247.5 points and cashed this over in three of four games. If the Grizzlies continue to push the pace, the scoring will follow.

Two notable players on the defensive end, Brooks and Zach Edey (Grizzlies), are out tonight. Their absences should help free up some scoring opportunities, too.

Grizzlies vs. Suns predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 10/29/2025.

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Ravens vs. Dolphins Week 9 Thursday Night Football picks: Expect Achane, Likely to provide offence in prime time

Lamar Jackson is expected to return for the Baltimore Ravens’ Thursday Night Football clash against the Miami Dolphins.

The pregame narrative: Jackson’s status was up in the air late into last week’s practice slate, and he ultimately sat out for a third straight game due to a hamstring injury. The Ravens won handily without him, though, and they’re 7.5-point favourites with the two-time MVP back in the fold.

Check out my Ravens vs. Dolphins picks for Oct. 30, featuring prop bets on Miami’s De’Von Achane and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely.

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Ravens vs. Dolphins picks

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Best Bet: Achane over 63.5 rush yards (-118)

Will Jackson’s looming return help Baltimore figure out how to play defence? There’s no correlation there, so I’m not counting on it.

The Ravens rank 30th in points allowed (30.0/game) and 28th in yards allowed (379.6/game)

According to RBSDM.com, Baltimore ranks 30th in defensive EPA per play and 27th in run defence success rate.

Despite those unsightly metrics, not a lot of opposing tailbacks have actually cleared this yardage prop against the Ravens.

But I like Achane’s chances because his opportunity share feels secure.

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Achane has 10+ carries in seven straight games and is averaging 13.4 rush attempts on the season. Last week, he totalled 18 carries (his second-highest mark of the year) for 67 yards.

The third-year back is 4-1 vs. this prop in his past five games.

Both of Achane’s backups, Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright, saw a fair bit of action in last week’s win. But that was a blowout victory for Miami, so it makes sense that the team would share the love.

Achane still owns a 77% snap share on the season, though, while neither of his backups is above 25%. This is still very much his backfield.

Key stat: Since Week 3, Achane is averaging 75.7 rush yards/game on 5.1 yards/attempt.

TNF prop bet

Likely over 21.5 receiving yards (-118): Likely missed a chunk of training camp and the first few weeks of the season with a foot injury.

He’s still getting up to speed, but I think the breakout game could come at any time.

Last year, Likely averaged 29.8 yards in 16 games for the Ravens.

In 19 games with Lamar Jackson since the start of 2024-25, Likely is 11-8 vs. this prop while averaging 31.7 YPG.

Miami is in the top eight in targets, receptions and yards allowed to opposing tight ends. So the matchup is compelling.

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When Likely last faced Miami, in 2023 with Lamar, the tight end caught two of three targets for 42 yards and two TDs.

Mark Andrews has dominated the target share for Ravens TEs so far in 2025, but I believe Likely’s time is coming.

Though he missed Weeks 1-3, Likely jumped right back into a healthy snap share in Week 4. From then on, him and Mark Andrews have seen almost an identical volume of snaps.

Thursday Night Football O/U pick

Over 50.5 points (-110): I’ve already talked down on the Ravens defence, so it might come as no surprise to know that overs are 6-1-0 in Baltimore’s games this year.

But did you know that overs are 6-1-1 in Miami’s games?

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That’s right, this matchup pits two of the most overs-friendly squads against each other. Two struggling defences, as well as Jackson’s return, give me ample faith in another scoring binge.

Thursday’s weather in Miami is shaping up to be excellent — mid-20s (Celsius) and dry — so there are no concerns on that front.

Since the 2023 season, overs are 13-7-0 when Miami is at home. The Dolphins’ three home games this year have featured an average of 54.7 points.

Both of the Ravens’ road games this year had at least 57 points.

Ravens vs. Dolphins picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 10/28/2025.

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Ravens vs. Dolphins Week 9 Thursday Night Football picks: Expect Achane, Likely to provide offence in prime time

Lamar Jackson is expected to return for the Baltimore Ravens’ Thursday Night Football clash against the Miami Dolphins.

The pregame narrative: Jackson’s status was up in the air late into last week’s practice slate, and he ultimately sat out for a third straight game due to a hamstring injury. The Ravens won handily without him, though, and they’re 7.5-point favourites with the two-time MVP back in the fold.

Check out my Ravens vs. Dolphins picks for Oct. 30, featuring prop bets on Miami’s De’Von Achane and Baltimore’s Isaiah Likely.

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Ravens vs. Dolphins picks

Embed: #120174

Best Bet: Achane over 63.5 rush yards (-113)

Will Jackson’s looming return help Baltimore figure out how to play defence? There’s no correlation there, so I’m not counting on it.

The Ravens rank 30th in points allowed (30.0/game) and 28th in yards allowed (379.6/game)

According to RBSDM.com, Baltimore ranks 30th in defensive EPA per play and 27th in run defence success rate.

Despite those unsightly metrics, not a lot of opposing tailbacks have actually cleared this yardage prop against the Ravens.

But I like Achane’s chances because his opportunity share feels secure.

-> Bet on De’Von Achane and more Ravens vs. Dolphins prop markets

Achane has 10+ carries in seven straight games and is averaging 13.4 rush attempts on the season. Last week, he totalled 18 carries (his second-highest mark of the year) for 67 yards.

The third-year back is 4-1 vs. this prop in his past five games.

Both of Achane’s backups, Ollie Gordon and Jaylen Wright, saw a fair bit of action in last week’s win. But that was a blowout victory for Miami, so it makes sense that the team would share the love.

Achane still owns a 77% snap share on the season, though, while neither of his backups is above 25%. This is still very much his backfield.

Key stat: Since Week 3, Achane is averaging 75.7 rush yards/game on 5.1 yards/attempt.

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TNF prop bet

Likely over 21.5 receiving yards (-115): Likely missed a chunk of training camp and the first few weeks of the season with a foot injury.

He’s still getting up to speed, but I think the breakout game could come at any time.

Last year, Likely averaged 29.8 yards in 16 games for the Ravens.

In 19 games with Lamar Jackson since the start of 2024-25, Likely is 11-8 vs. this prop while averaging 31.7 YPG.

Miami is in the top eight in targets, receptions and yards allowed to opposing tight ends. So the matchup is compelling.

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When Likely last faced Miami, in 2023 with Lamar, the tight end caught two of three targets for 42 yards and two TDs.

Mark Andrews has dominated the target share for Ravens TEs so far in 2025, but I believe Likely’s time is coming.

Though he missed Weeks 1-3, Likely jumped right back into a healthy snap share in Week 4. From then on, him and Mark Andrews have seen almost an identical volume of snaps.

Thursday Night Football O/U pick

Over 50 points (-109): I’ve already talked down on the Ravens defence, so it might come as no surprise to know that overs are 6-1-0 in Baltimore’s games this year.

But did you know that overs are 6-1-1 in Miami’s games?

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That’s right, this matchup pits two of the most overs-friendly squads against each other. Two struggling defences, as well as Jackson’s return, give me ample faith in another scoring binge.

Thursday’s weather in Miami is shaping up to be excellent — mid-20s (Celsius) and dry — so there are no concerns on that front.

Since the 2023 season, overs are 13-7-0 when Miami is at home. The Dolphins’ three home games this year have featured an average of 54.7 points.

Both of the Ravens’ road games this year had at least 57 points.

Ravens vs. Dolphins picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 10/28/2025.

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Clippers vs. Warriors SGP predictions Oct. 28: Bet on Curry, Harden in +310 parlay

In the fifth and final NBA game of the night, the Golden State Warriors host the Los Angeles Clippers at Chase Center.

The pregame narrative: Neither team has won on the road yet, and I think Golden State’s home-court advantage will help the Warriors at least keep this one close. Steph Curry continues lighting it up from 3-point range and draws a favourable matchup to keep that going.

Check out my Clippers vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Oct. 28, with prop bets on Curry and James Harden.

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Clippers vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Harden over 14.5 reb/ast | Curry 4+ threes | Warriors +5.5 (+310)

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Harden over 14.5 rebounds/assists (-117): Harden is a three-time scoring champ, but it’s been several years since he was at the peak of his powers in that regard.

In the first 11 seasons of his career, Harden won his three scoring titles while averaging 25.2 PPG. He only averaged 11.6 rebounds/assists in that span.

In six seasons since then, Harden has scaled back to 21.2 PPG. Meanwhile, he’s up to 16.0 RA on a nightly basis.

The point guard is still capable of a double-digit assist total on any given night. And at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds, he’s got plenty of size to compete for rebounds around the rim.

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Last season, Harden went 3-1 vs. this RA prop when facing the Warriors. He averaged 11.0 assists and 5.8 rebounds in those games.

He was also 46-40 overall in this prop market last year (playoffs included).

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 4+ threes (-225): How much longer can the 37-year-old Curry keep this up? I don’t know, but for now, it’s worthwhile to enjoy the ride.

Curry, who has led the NBA in 3s per game in 10 of the previous 13 seasons, is off to another scorching start from deep.

at Lakers: 3-for-9
vs. Nuggets: 6-for-12
at Trailblazers: 7-for-14
vs. Grizzlies: 4-for-9

-> Bet on Steph Curry to rain 3s vs. Los Angeles

While I don’t love the individual price for this 3s milestone, I do respect the volume and efficiency with which Curry is letting it fly.

Through three games, the Clippers have allowed the second-most attempted 3s to opponents (44.0/game). And Curry put in some serious work vs. L.A. last year.

In three games against the Clippers during the 2024-25 season, Curry shot 17-of-34 and cashed this milestone all three times.

Warriors +5.5 (-190): Golden State’s recent track record against L.A. is terrible, but I still think the home team should be safe against this number tonight.

The Warriors are just 1-7 SU vs. the Clippers since the 2023-24 season, but the Dubs have covered a +5.5 spread in five of those eight games.

Since the start of last season, the Clippers are 8-14 ATS as road favourites. That includes a 129-108 loss in Utah (as -9.5 favourites) in their season opener this year.

Golden State is 2-0 SU and ATS at home to begin the new campaign. The Dubs will be at a rest disadvantage, but that doesn’t mean much to me since we’re only a week into the season.

Clippers vs. Warriors predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET 10/28/2025.

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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Game 4 World Series picks: Bet the over and fade Shohei Ohtani on the mound

After landing on the wrong side of last night’s 18-inning battle, the Toronto Blue Jays will look to level the World Series on Tuesday in Los Angeles.

The pregame narrative: The Dodgers won a game that lasted six hours and 39 minutes to take a 2-1 series lead. Shohei Ohtani will be back in two-way mode for L.A. tonight after a superb showing at the plate in Game 3.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Dodgers picks for Game 4 of the World Series, featuring a prop prediction on Ohtani as a pitcher.

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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers picks

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Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-106)

In Game 3 on Monday, there was a stretch of 10-plus innings without any runs. That might seem like a reason to back the under tonight, but I view it differently.

Both teams maxed out their bullpens, as all 17 relievers made an appearance in the marathon matchup.

That means some arms will be unavailable tonight, but more importantly, it means the hitters have had a recent look at everyone they might face.

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The situational aspect isn’t the only reason I like the over, mind you. This is a bet on two of the very best offences in the majors.

In the regular season, Toronto led the majors in batting average (.265) and on-base percentage (.333) while posting a league-low strikeout rate. The Jays have the third-highest scoring average (5.03 runs/game) across the regular season and playoffs.

The Dodgers finished second in the regular season in SLG (.441) and wRC+ (113). Also, they’re second in scoring (5.06 runs/game) across the regular season and playoffs.

Ohtani is a great pitcher — one of several donning Dodger Blue — but I don’t expect an all-world effort on the mound tonight.

In 75 combined plate appearances, Toronto’s lineup is batting .284 with a .478 SLG vs. Ohtani.

George Springer, who exited Game 3 with an injury and is considered day-to-day, has the best numbers against Ohtani. But even if he’s unavailable, there are others who can step up.

Overs are cashing at a 57.1% rate for Toronto this year, per Team Rankings, which leads the majors.

Key stat: This over is 4-2 in Blue Jays/Dodgers matchups this season, with an average total of 9.5 runs.

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Best World Series prop bet

Ohtani under 18.5 outs (-154): The Dodgers rolled out all nine of their relievers last night. So it’s fair to assume they want Ohtani to work fairly deep into Tuesday’s game.

And he might, given that he’s cleared this outs total in each of his past three starts (including two in the playoffs).

I like the plus-money fade here, though, because Ohtani was more a part of the Game 3 marathon than any of the relievers who might follow him tonight. He reached base in all nine of his plate appearances, going 4-for-4 with five walks.

At one point, he even needed a break in the action due to some minor cramping on the basepaths.

No one is going to feel 100% coming out of an 18-inning game. But only one guy is being asked to pitch several innings after being part of that.

The Jays have a potent lineup that could chase Ohtani a bit early anyway, and I would be surprised if the Dodgers pushed him hard on the mound — especially since he’s also their most important hitter.

Eight of the past nine starters to face Toronto went under this number.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers picks made at 9:23 a.m. ET on 10/28/2025.

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