Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Raiders vs. Broncos Week 10 Thursday Night Football picks: Courtland Sutton should shine at home

The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos kick off Week 10 at home against their divisional basement-dwellers, the Las Vegas Raiders.

The pregame narrative: Denver won in Houston last week to extend its streak to six games. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is 1-6 in its past seven games. On the bright side for the Raiders, their offence showed some life with Brock Bowers back in the mix.

Check out my Raiders vs. Broncos picks for Nov. 4, featuring a prop bet on Denver wideout Courtland Sutton.

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Raiders vs. Broncos picks

Best Bet: Raiders over 16.5 points (-107)

The Raiders’ 29th-ranked scoring offence is averaging just 16.5 points per game. Given that they’re playing on the road against the Broncos (No. 4 scoring defence), this might seem like a great time for a fade.

That’s not how I see it, though, because the Raiders have been far more competent on offence when Brock Bowers is healthy.

A year after setting the NFL rookie record for catches (and the rookie tight end record for receiving yards), Bowers is the obvious focal point of Las Vegas’ offence.

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I’m not here to say that it’s a great offence, but in the games that Bowers has been healthy, things have largely been fine:

at Patriots: 20 points, 389 total yards
vs. Chargers: 9 points, 218 total yards
at Commanders: 24 points, 354 total yards
vs. Bears: 24 points, 357 total yards
vs. Jaguars: 29 points, 331 total yards

In three games without Bowers, the Raiders have averaged 8.7 PPG and 205.7 yards.

With Bowers, the Raiders have averaged 21.2 PPG and 329.8 yards. If you think he’s a true game-changer, as I do, this is a point total worth buying in on.

Also, Denver won’t have Patrick Surtain, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. That should give Bowers and the rest of the Raiders’ pass offence a better opportunity to thrive.

Key stat: The Broncos are allowing 18.4 PPG, and five of nine opponents have surpassed a 16.5-point total. The exceptions include the Titans (Cam Ward’s NFL debut), Bengals (without Joe Burrow), and Texans (with C.J. Stroud sidelined for most of the game).

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TNF prop prediction

Sutton over 52.5 receiving yards (-114): Sutton has had some frustratingly quiet weeks this season, but this is a disrespectfully low line for a guy Bo Nix has built a solid connection with.

In 26 regular-season games with Nix, Sutton is averaging 63.3 yards/game.

Sutton is 17-9 vs. this yardage total in those matchups.

-> Bet on Courtland Sutton and more Raiders vs. Broncos prop markets

Troy Franklin just overtook Sutton as the Broncos’ target leader, but not all targets are created equally.

Sutton consistently has opportunities to do more with less, evidenced by his 688 air yards this season (11th in the NFL, per Player Profiler).

In home games this season, Sutton is 4-0 vs. this prop while averaging 74.0 YPG.

Raiders vs. Broncos picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 11/04/2025.

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Thunder vs. Clippers prop picks Nov. 4: Bet on Harden as a passer, Holmgren from 3-point range

On the latter half of a back-to-back, the Los Angeles Clippers host the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

The latest: OKC is off to a 7-0 start and is favoured to stay perfect. L.A., meanwhile, is on a four-game ATS losing streak — with two of those losses coming straight up as the favourite.

See how Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and James Harden are featured in my Thunder vs. Clippers picks for Tuesday, Nov. 4.

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Thunder vs. Clippers picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-154)

While Victor Wembanyama has opted to play in the paint a lot more this season, there’s a lanky big man in Oklahoma City who’s taking the opposite approach.

It’s only been four games, but 7-foot-1 centre Chet Holmgren has bumped up his 3-point shot volume for the Thunder.

After averaging 3.6 attempted 3s last season, Holmgren has attempted 5+ threes in every game so far.

He’s shooting it well from deep, going 10-for-24 (41.7%) and cashing this bet in three of four games.

-> Bet on Thunder vs. Clippers prop markets

It seems counterintuitive for a big man to spend so much time on the outside, but Holmgren has the scoring touch to justify the move.

And if the shot volume stays roughly where it is, asking for a pair of 3s on any given night won’t seem unreasonable.

Holmgren attempts 39% of his shots from 3-point range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 78th percentile in the league. He’s one of nine Thunder players averaging more than 4.0 attempted 3s, so it’s clearly a team-wide directive.

After missing the past three games due to a back injury, Holmgren did not appear on Tuesday’s injury report. He should be good to go in an encouraging matchup.

Key stat: The Clippers allow the fifth-most attempted 3s and the fifth-highest 3PT% in the NBA.

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More OKC vs. L.A. props

Hartenstein over 19.5 points/rebounds (-130): This line seems a bit low to me, as Hartenstein and Holmgren have proven they can both thrive on the floor together.

Hartenstein has 85 points/rebounds across four starts when Holmgren played this season. That equates to 21.3 PR per game.

In his past five games, Hartenstein is 4-1 vs. this prop while averaging 13.0 points and 11.6 rebounds.

-> Bet on Holmgren and Hartenstein to shine in Los Angeles!

OKC won its past two games by a combined 50 points, and Hartenstein played fewer than 26 minutes in both blowouts — but he still cashed this PR line both times.

Ideally, tonight’s matchup is a bit tighter, and Hartenstein plays more in his typical sum of minutes (around 30). The Thunder are 8-point road favourites at Intuit Dome.

In his first year with OKC last season, Hartenstein went 2-0 vs. this prop when facing the Clippers.

Harden over 7.5 assists (-130): Harden had a great night last night for the Clips, scoring 29 points with 6-of-10 shooting from 3-point range.

And he still found time to dish out eight assists, too.

The well-beared point guard is now 4-2 vs. this prop, tallying seven assists in one of the outlier games.

OKC is a stout defensive squad that has allowed the second-fewest assists per game this season, but I’m not sure the team can do enough to slow Harden down. He had 17 assists in two matchups vs. the Thunder last year and cashed this bet both times.

Harden is giving himself plenty of opportunities to rack up assists, evidenced by his 14.3 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) per game. That’s the seventh-most potential APG in the league.

Thunder vs. Clippers picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 11/04/2025.

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Raiders vs. Broncos Week 10 Thursday Night Football picks: Courtland Sutton should shine at home

The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos kick off Week 10 at home against their divisional basement-dwellers, the Las Vegas Raiders.

The pregame narrative: Denver won in Houston last week to extend its streak to six games. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is 1-6 in its past seven games. On the bright side for the Raiders, their offence showed some life with Brock Bowers back in the mix.

Check out my Raiders vs. Broncos picks for Nov. 4, featuring a prop bet on Denver wideout Courtland Sutton.

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Raiders vs. Broncos picks

Best Bet: Raiders over 16.5 points (-107)

The Raiders’ 29th-ranked scoring offence is averaging just 16.5 points per game. Given that they’re playing on the road against the Broncos (No. 4 scoring defence), this might seem like a great time for a fade.

That’s not how I see it, though, because the Raiders have been far more competent on offence when Brock Bowers is healthy.

A year after setting the NFL rookie record for catches (and the rookie tight end record for receiving yards), Bowers is the obvious focal point of Las Vegas’ offence.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Thursday Night Football!

I’m not here to say that it’s a great offence, but in the games that Bowers has been healthy, things have largely been fine:

at Patriots: 20 points, 389 total yards
vs. Chargers: 9 points, 218 total yards
at Commanders: 24 points, 354 total yards
vs. Bears: 24 points, 357 total yards
vs. Jaguars: 29 points, 331 total yards

In three games without Bowers, the Raiders have averaged 8.7 PPG and 205.7 yards.

With Bowers, the Raiders have averaged 21.2 PPG and 329.8 yards. If you think he’s a true game-changer, as I do, this is a point total worth buying in on.

Also, Denver won’t have Patrick Surtain, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. That should give Bowers and the rest of the Raiders’ pass offence a better opportunity to thrive.

Key stat: The Broncos are allowing 18.4 PPG, and five of nine opponents have surpassed a 16.5-point total. The exceptions include the Titans (Cam Ward’s NFL debut), Bengals (without Joe Burrow), and Texans (with C.J. Stroud sidelined for most of the game).

Embed: #120650

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TNF prop prediction

Sutton over 52.5 receiving yards (-114): Sutton has had some frustratingly quiet weeks this season, but this is a disrespectfully low line for a guy Bo Nix has built a solid connection with.

In 26 regular-season games with Nix, Sutton is averaging 63.3 yards/game.

Sutton is 17-9 vs. this yardage total in those matchups.

-> Bet on Courtland Sutton and more Raiders vs. Broncos prop markets

Troy Franklin just overtook Sutton as the Broncos’ target leader, but not all targets are created equally.

Sutton consistently has opportunities to do more with less, evidenced by his 688 air yards this season (11th in the NFL, per Player Profiler).

In home games this season, Sutton is 4-0 vs. this prop while averaging 74.0 YPG.

Raiders vs. Broncos picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 11/04/2025.

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Thunder vs. Clippers prop picks Nov. 4: Bet on Harden as a passer, Holmgren from 3-point range

On the latter half of a back-to-back, the Los Angeles Clippers host the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder.

The latest: OKC is off to a 7-0 start and is favoured to stay perfect. L.A., meanwhile, is on a four-game ATS losing streak — with two of those losses coming straight up as the favourite.

See how Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and James Harden are featured in my Thunder vs. Clippers picks for Tuesday, Nov. 4.

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Thunder vs. Clippers picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-110)

While Victor Wembanyama has opted to play in the paint a lot more this season, there’s a lanky big man in Oklahoma City who’s taking the opposite approach.

It’s only been four games, but 7-foot-1 centre Chet Holmgren has bumped up his 3-point shot volume for the Thunder.

After averaging 3.6 attempted 3s last season, Holmgren has attempted 5+ threes in every game so far.

He’s shooting it well from deep, going 10-for-24 (41.7%) and cashing this bet in three of four games.

-> Bet on Thunder vs. Clippers prop markets

It seems counterintuitive for a big man to spend so much time on the outside, but Holmgren has the scoring touch to justify the move.

And if the shot volume stays roughly where it is, asking for a pair of 3s on any given night won’t seem unreasonable.

Holmgren attempts 39% of his shots from 3-point range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 78th percentile in the league. He’s one of nine Thunder players averaging more than 4.0 attempted 3s, so it’s clearly a team-wide directive.

After missing the past three games due to a back injury, Holmgren did not appear on Tuesday’s injury report. He should be good to go in an encouraging matchup.

Key stat: The Clippers allow the fifth-most attempted 3s and the fifth-highest 3PT% in the NBA.

Embed: #120643

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More OKC vs. L.A. props

Hartenstein over 19.5 points/rebounds (-124): This line seems a bit low to me, as Hartenstein and Holmgren have proven they can both thrive on the floor together.

Hartenstein has 85 points/rebounds across four starts when Holmgren played this season. That equates to 21.3 PR per game.

In his past five games, Hartenstein is 4-1 vs. this prop while averaging 13.0 points and 11.6 rebounds.

-> Bet on Holmgren and Hartenstein to shine in Los Angeles!

OKC won its past two games by a combined 50 points, and Hartenstein played fewer than 26 minutes in both blowouts — but he still cashed this PR line both times.

Ideally, tonight’s matchup is a bit tighter, and Hartenstein plays more in his typical sum of minutes (around 30). The Thunder are 8-point road favourites at Intuit Dome.

In his first year with OKC last season, Hartenstein went 2-0 vs. this prop when facing the Clippers.

Harden over 7.5 assists (-106): Harden had a great night last night for the Clips, scoring 29 points with 6-of-10 shooting from 3-point range.

And he still found time to dish out eight assists, too.

The well-beared point guard is now 4-2 vs. this prop, tallying seven assists in one of the outlier games.

OKC is a stout defensive squad that has allowed the second-fewest assists per game this season, but I’m not sure the team can do enough to slow Harden down. He had 17 assists in two matchups vs. the Thunder last year and cashed this bet both times.

Harden is giving himself plenty of opportunities to rack up assists, evidenced by his 14.3 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) per game. That’s the seventh-most potential APG in the league.

Thunder vs. Clippers picks made at 11:36 a.m. ET on 11/04/2025.

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NFL Week 10 upset picks: Back the Eagles to win on Monday Night Football

Coming off a hideous loss at home, the Green Bay Packers are somehow favoured against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: On Monday Night Football, Philly faces a Green Bay squad that’s missing one of its best offensive weapons. In Sunday’s action, look for the San Francisco 49ers to contend against a Los Angeles Rams squad they’ve already beaten this year.

Check out my top NFL Week 10 upset picks for games on Nov. 9-10.

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NFL Week 10 upset picks

Best bet: Eagles moneyline (+112)

This is the first time the Eagles have been underdogs all season. But why now?

Sure, Green Bay (5-2-1) is at home, but Philly (6-2) has the better record and is coming off a bye. The Eagles are also 3-0 vs. the Packers since 2022, with a pair of wins last season.

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Oh, and let’s not forget the abomination of a performance from Green Bay’s offence in Week 9. With the Carolina Panthers in town, the Packers scored just 13 points in a losing effort.

Green Bay was favoured by 13.5 points, mind you. It was by far the NFL’s biggest upset of the season.

The Packers just lost tight end Tucker Kraft (knee) for the year. It’d be difficult to overstate the value of Kraft, who’s third in the NFL in yards after catch (344 YAC).

None of Green Bay’s wide receivers has even 100 YAC this season.

Philadelphia hasn’t looked as dominant as people might expect from a defending champion, but the team has stacked wins over some impressive teams: Chiefs, Rams and Buccaneers.

It’s tough to expect a proper bounce back from the Packers’ offence in their first game without Kraft. The rested Eagles should take advantage.

Key stat: The Eagles rushed for 140+ yards in both games vs. Green Bay last year and won those matchups by a combined 17 points.

NFL underdog predictions

49ers moneyline (+150): San Francisco routinely has a laundry list of injuries to contend with, but a couple of key names could be back in the fold for Week 10.

QB Brock Purdy, who has only played in two games this year, practiced all of last week and seems likely to return Sunday.

WR Ricky Pearsall, who’s averaging 80+ yards per game but hasn’t played since September, “has a chance to play,” according to head coach Kyle Shanahan.

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The Rams are a tough team to stop, but the Niners already have a win over them this season (26-23 in L.A. in Week 5). And that was with Mac Jones at quarterback.

With a top-10 scoring defence, the Niners won’t be doormats for the Rams’ loaded offence. And if Purdy/Pearsall return, expect San Francisco’s offence to make some noise, too.

NFL upset picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on 11/04/2025.

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NFL Week 10 upset picks: Back the Eagles to win on Monday Night Football

Coming off a hideous loss at home, the Green Bay Packers are somehow favoured against the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.

The pregame narrative: On Monday Night Football, Philly faces a Green Bay squad that’s missing one of its best offensive weapons. In Sunday’s action, look for the San Francisco 49ers to contend against a Los Angeles Rams squad they’ve already beaten this year.

Check out my top NFL Week 10 upset picks for games on Nov. 9-10.

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NFL Week 10 upset picks

Best bet: Eagles moneyline (+112)

This is the first time the Eagles have been underdogs all season. But why now?

Sure, Green Bay (5-2-1) is at home, but Philly (6-2) has the better record and is coming off a bye. The Eagles are also 3-0 vs. the Packers since 2022, with a pair of wins last season.

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Oh, and let’s not forget the abomination of a performance from Green Bay’s offence in Week 9. With the Carolina Panthers in town, the Packers scored just 13 points in a losing effort.

Green Bay was favoured by 13.5 points, mind you. It was by far the NFL’s biggest upset of the season.

The Packers just lost tight end Tucker Kraft (knee) for the year. It’d be difficult to overstate the value of Kraft, who’s third in the NFL in yards after catch (344 YAC).

None of Green Bay’s wide receivers has even 100 YAC this season.

Philadelphia hasn’t looked as dominant as people might expect from a defending champion, but the team has stacked wins over some impressive teams: Chiefs, Rams and Buccaneers.

It’s tough to expect a proper bounce back from the Packers’ offence in their first game without Kraft. The rested Eagles should take advantage.

Key stat: The Eagles rushed for 140+ yards in both games vs. Green Bay last year and won those matchups by a combined 17 points.

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NFL underdog predictions

49ers moneyline (+150): San Francisco routinely has a laundry list of injuries to contend with, but a couple of key names could be back in the fold for Week 10.

QB Brock Purdy, who has only played in two games this year, practiced all of last week and seems likely to return Sunday.

WR Ricky Pearsall, who’s averaging 80+ yards per game but hasn’t played since September, “has a chance to play,” according to head coach Kyle Shanahan.

The Rams are a tough team to stop, but the Niners already have a win over them this season (26-23 in L.A. in Week 5). And that was with Mac Jones at quarterback.

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With a top-10 scoring defence, the Niners won’t be doormats for the Rams’ loaded offence. And if Purdy/Pearsall return, expect San Francisco’s offence to make some noise, too.

NFL upset picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 11/04/2025.

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Heat vs. Clippers SGP predictions Nov. 3: James Harden should lead L.A. to victory at home

The Miami Heat conclude a SoCal back-to-back on Monday night with a matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers

The pregame narrative: Miami lost by 10 last night against the Lakers and will now face a Clippers squad that has been resting at home for multiple nights. Los Angeles is 35-12 at home since the start of last season and is an 8-point favourite tonight.

Check out my Heat vs. Clippers SGP predictions for Nov. 3, featuring James Harden and Davion Mitchell.

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Heat vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Harden over 2.5 threes | Mitchell 6+ assists | Clippers -5.5 (+325)

Harden over 2.5 threes (-122): Harden is far and away the No. 1 option for the Clippers from 3-point range. Even if he’s not the most efficient sharpshooter they have, I feel good about his game-to-game shot volume.

Harden averaged 8.5 attempted 3s last season, which was his highest mark since his three-year run as the NBA scoring champ (2017-20). This year, he’s at 8.2 attempts/game through five games.

Harden has 7+ attempted 3s in four of five games, and he’s coming off a 4-for-13 showing from deep.

Kawhi Leonard is the only other Clipper attempting more than 4.0 threes per game right now.

-> Bet on James Harden on Monday night

Though he’s only 2-3 vs. this prop so far, Harden is worth a look based on how often he’s letting it fly from deep. After all, you have to shoot to score.

In four matchups vs. the Heat over the past two seasons, Harden is 4-0 vs. this prop while posting a 53.1 3PT% on 8.0 attempts/game.

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NBA SGP legs

Mitchell 6+ assists (-210): The Toronto Raptors might regret moving on from Mitchell for a 2026 second-round pick and some cash. The fifth-year guard plays relentless defence and knows how to dish the rock.

Mitchell, who was shipped to Miami at last year’s deadline, has become the Heat’s primary passer. He’s averaging 7.5 APG, along with 13.7 potential assists.

Those 13.7 potential APG, which are passes that lead directly to a shot, rank 10th among all NBA passers.

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If you’re getting nearly 14 chances at assists on a given night, there’s a good chance six of them (or more) will convert.

Mitchell is 5-1 vs. this milestone. And he’s facing a Clippers squad that allows the seventh-most APG.

Clippers -5.5 (-177): L.A. played at home on Halloween night and has since been resting for a pair of days.

Miami, meanwhile, lost by 10 on the road against the Lakers just last night.

The Clippers are 3-0 at home so far this season, covering this number twice. And they’re building a reputation as one of the best home teams in the league.

Since debuting at Intuit Dome last season, the Clips are 30-16-1 ATS on home court (second-best home ATS record in the NBA, per Team Rankings).

Heat vs. Clippers predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET 11/03/2025.

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Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 9 MNF TD picks: Look for Jake Ferguson, Zonovan Knight to find the end zone

On Monday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals in a game with tons of scoring potential.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup at Jerry World has a 53.5-point projected total. Overs are 6-2 in Cowboys games this year, with each of their past four matchups clearing this number.

Check out our top Cardinals vs. Cowboys MNF TD picks, featuring Jake Ferguson and Zonovan “Bam” Knight.

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Cardinals vs. Cowboys TD picks: Week 9

Best bet: Knight to score a TD (+105)

This could be Knight’s last opportunity as a starting tailback for the foreseeable future, and I expect him to make the most of it.

Dallas has played some truly terrible football on the defensive side of things, ranking 31st in both points and yards allowed.

The Cowboys’ defence is also 30th in EPA per rush and 31st in rush success rate, according to RBSDM.com.

-> Bet on Zonovan Knight to score on Monday Night Football

It’s a smash matchup, and Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon has already confirmed that Knight will get the start for Arizona.

Knight isn’t guaranteed to dominate touches for Arizona. But neither of his counterparts, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter, should be much of a concern.

Carter was the first depth chart RB to get a start when Trey Benson and James Conner were sidelined. But in Carter’s second start, in Week 6, he rushed just nine times. Knight rushed 11 times in that game and out-touched him last matchup, too.

Demercado made the grave mistake of dropping the ball at the one-yard line on what would’ve been a 72-yard touchdown in Week 5. He’s only had one carry since then and is coming off an ankle injury.

Knight has scored in two of three games in which he’s taken offensive snaps. His red zone usage has been great, and the Cowboys have a tough time stopping anyone.

Treat Knight as a high-value prop play on MNF.

Key stat: Knight has three red zone touches in back-to-back games, with five carries inside the 10-yard line in that span.

Monday Night Football TD picks

Ferguson to score a TD (+105): Last week was a rough one for the Cowboys’ passing game, but things have been running quite smoothly in that regard for most of the season.

Quarterback Dak Prescott had 13 pass TDs over a four-game span from Weeks 4-7 and is thriving at the helm of the Cowboys’ No. 2-ranked scoring offence.

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In that aforementioned four-game span, Ferguson was a huge part of the scoring binge.

He went 4-0 vs. this prop, snagging six TDs on 24 receptions in those games. Prescott has ample options to throw to, but the fourth-year tight end is clearly a favourite in the red zone.

Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in five of his past six games — with 11 total red zone targets in that span.

Arizona’s defence has allowed the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Cardinals vs. Cowboys TD picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET 11/03/2025.

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Best NBA prop predictions Nov. 3: Bet on Nikola Jokic and Jrue Holiday in plus-money prop bets

The Portland Trail Blazers are catching the Los Angeles Lakers on a back-to-back Monday, and that matchup has my attention for my favourite NBA prop bet.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Portland’s Jrue Holiday is off to a great start as a passer, and he draws a nice matchup to keep that going tonight. In an all-Texas tussle down in Houston, look for Max Christie to feed off an ultra-efficient start as a scorer.

Check out my favourite NBA player prop predictions for Nov. 3, featuring Nikola Jokic.

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NBA prop predictions

Best bet: Holiday 8+ assists (-150)

In his age-35 season, Holiday is still an impact NBA player.

The veteran point guard is now on his fifth team, and so far he’s played as many minutes as anyone on Portland.

He also has more than twice as many assists as any other Blazer.

Is it likely that Holiday’s current 8.7 assists/game rate — which would be a career high — holds up? No, but Portland is counting on him to be their primary passer, so obtaining eight-or-so assists on a nightly basis isn’t far-fetched.

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Holiday is seventh in the NBA in potential assists/game (14.3), which denotes the number of passes a player makes that lead directly to a shot.

Next on the list among Portland players is Deni Avdija at 10.3 potential APG, and then it drops off to 5.5 (Blake Wesley).

There’s a clear pecking order with Holiday at the top.

Holiday is coming off a 13-assist game to move to 4-2 vs. this prop. He has at least six assists in every game, which is a nice floor to work from.

Key stat: Holiday’s opponents, the Lakers, have allowed the sixth-most assists to opposing PGs (10.15/game), per Fantasy Pros.

More prop picks

Jokic over 46.5 points/rebounds/assists (-130): Jokic averaged a triple-double last year for the first time, and somehow that wasn’t enough to help him earn a fourth MVP award.

Well, he’s on track to average a triple-double again, and he currently leads the NBA in rebounds and assists on a per-game basis.

20.4 PPG
14.4 RPG
10.8 APG
Triple-double in 4 of 5 games

Though he’s only 1-4 vs. this PRA total, Jokic has at least 43 PRA in every game.

Jokic typically feasts against the Sacramento Kings, who currently have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

In his past five games vs. the Kings, Jokic has averaged 22.2/15.4/11.6 (47.6 PRA).

Christie over 10.5 points (-120): When will Christie’s superb efficiency lead to a greater shot volume?

The 22-year-old is shooting 53.3% from the floor through six games, going 16-for-32 from 3-point range in the process.

He plays big minutes (30.0 MPG) but is attempting fewer than eight shots per night.

-> Bet on Christie to clear his points total

Christie is 3-3 vs. this prop while scoring at least nine points in every game. He can’t possibly stay this efficient for long, but in the short term, I expect him to get a few more looks for the Dallas Mavericks.

Especially as the team hunts for offence with Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively sidelined.

NBA player prop predictions made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 11/03/25.

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Cardinals vs. Cowboys Week 9 MNF TD picks: Look for Jake Ferguson, Zonovan Knight to find the end zone

On Monday Night Football, the Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals in a game with tons of scoring potential.

The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup at Jerry World has a 53.5-point projected total. Overs are 6-2 in Cowboys games this year, with each of their past four matchups clearing this number.

Check out our top Cardinals vs. Cowboys MNF TD picks, featuring Jake Ferguson and Zonovan “Bam” Knight.

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Cardinals vs. Cowboys TD picks: Week 9

Best bet: Knight to score a TD (+140)

This could be Knight’s last opportunity as a starting tailback for the foreseeable future, and I expect him to make the most of it.

Dallas has played some truly terrible football on the defensive side of things, ranking 31st in both points and yards allowed.

The Cowboys’ defence is also 30th in EPA per rush and 31st in rush success rate, according to RBSDM.com.

-> Bet on Zonovan Knight to score on Monday Night Football

It’s a smash matchup, and Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon has already confirmed that Knight will get the start for Arizona.

Knight isn’t guaranteed to dominate touches for Arizona. But neither of his counterparts, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter, should be much of a concern.

Carter was the first depth chart RB to get a start when Trey Benson and James Conner were sidelined. But in Carter’s second start, in Week 6, he rushed just nine times. Knight rushed 11 times in that game and out-touched him last matchup, too.

Demercado made the grave mistake of dropping the ball at the one-yard line on what would’ve been a 72-yard touchdown in Week 5. He’s only had one carry since then and is coming off an ankle injury.

Knight has scored in two of three games in which he’s taken offensive snaps. His red zone usage has been great, and the Cowboys have a tough time stopping anyone.

Treat Knight as a high-value prop play on MNF.

Key stat: Knight has three red zone touches in back-to-back games, with five carries inside the 10-yard line in that span.

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Monday Night Football TD picks

Ferguson to score a TD (+130): Last week was a rough one for the Cowboys’ passing game, but things have been running quite smoothly in that regard for most of the season.

Quarterback Dak Prescott had 13 pass TDs over a four-game span from Weeks 4-7 and is thriving at the helm of the Cowboys’ No. 2-ranked scoring offence.

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In that aforementioned four-game span, Ferguson was a huge part of the scoring binge.

He went 4-0 vs. this prop, snagging six TDs on 24 receptions in those games. Prescott has ample options to throw to, but the fourth-year tight end is clearly a favourite in the red zone.

Ferguson has been targeted inside the 10-yard line in five of his past six games — with 11 total red zone targets in that span.

Arizona’s defence has allowed the second-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Cardinals vs. Cowboys TD picks made at 11:14 a.m. ET 11/03/2025.

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