Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Raptors vs. Hawks SGP predictions Nov. 7: Back Toronto to win, Jamal Shead to shine as a passer

For the second time in the season’s first three weeks, the Toronto Raptors are in Atlanta to face the Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has responded with three straight wins after four straight losses to get back to .500. The Raptors opened their season with a dominant win in Atlanta, and now they’ll face that squad again — but this time, without Trae Young.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hawks SGP, featuring picks on Jalen Johnson and Jamal Shead.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NBA

Raptors vs. Hawks SGP predictions

Parlay: Raptors moneyline | Johnson under 1.5 threes | Shead over 3.5 assists (+475)

Raptors moneyline (+104): Toronto dominated in its season opener against Atlanta, winning by 20 points while boasting a +20 rebound advantage.

It’s surprising — and impressive — that Toronto was able to win by such a significant margin despite shooting just 6-for-25 (24.0%) from deep and sending the Hawks to the free throw line 37 times.

-> Bet on tonight’s NBA slate at NorthStar Bets

Young was 11-for-13 from the line and matched a team-high with 22 points, and he won’t be in tonight’s rematch. Advantage, Toronto.

The Raptors are modest underdogs, and I expect them to run it back with a win of some kind. They’re rolling off three straight wins, and they’ve dominated a full-strength Hawks team already.

Toronto has a +2.4 net rating so far, while Atlanta’s net rating sits at -0.9.

Embed: #120727

NBA SGP legs

Johnson under 1.5 threes (-150): Johnson is scoring more than ever before, and he’s doing so at a career-best efficiency. But the production isn’t coming from beyond the arc.

Through seven games, Johnson is averaging 20.6 PPG on 58.0% shooting.

His free-throw attempts and 2-point attempts are up, while his 3-point attempts (2.1/game) are lower than either of the two previous seasons.

-> Bet on NBA futures here

Johnson has yet to attempt more than three 3s in a matchup this season, and this under is 7-0.

On opening night, Johnson scored 22 points on 13 shots vs. Toronto, but he was 0-for-2 from deep. This prop is playable as a standalone, even with all the extra juice.

Shead over 3.5 assists (-134): Again, there’s some extra juice on this prop, but I think this one is very playable as a standalone.

Shead comes off the bench for the Raptors and typically plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. But when he’s out there, the objective is to tee up his teammates for buckets.

Despite being a bench player, Shead leads the Raptors in potential assists per game (10.9), which denotes the quantity of passes that lead directly to a shot.

-> Bet on tonight’s Raptors vs. Hawks game

He’s averaging 5.4 APG through eight games and is 8-0 vs. this prop.

In Shead’s first go-round against Atlanta, he chipped in 10 points and five assists off the bench in 19 minutes.

Raptors vs. Hawks SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET 11/07/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Best NFL Week 10 prop bets: Drake Maye, Sam LaPorta have smash-play potential on Sunday

Drake Maye headlines this week’s NFL prop bets, with a pair of targets in the 4 p.m. slate as well.

The pregame narrative: Maye’s passing efficiency has been elite this season, and he is well equipped to exceed his yardage line in Week 10. Later on Sunday, Sam LaPorta has a Grade-A matchup in Washington.

Check out my top NFL Week 10 prop bets, featuring a prediction on Arizona Cardinals receiver Michael Wilson.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

NFL Week 10 prop bets

Best bet: Maye over 246.5 passing yards (-118)

The New England Patriots have been one of the surprise successes in the NFL this season. And Maye is easily the biggest reason why.

In his second NFL season, Maye has been an absolute star. He leads the league in completion rate (74.1%) despite also being among the leaders in average depth of target (8.9 yards, 82nd percentile).

-> Bet on Drake Maye’s prop markets vs. 49ers

According to RBSDM.com, Maye also ranks in the top five in these advanced metrics:

Success rate
EPA per play
Completion rate above expectation

This yardage line seems pretty low for someone who has been arguably the most efficient quarterback in the NFL, no? He’s certainly not the most high-volume passer, but he doesn’t have to be.

Maye is averaging 253.9 yards/game, which is pretty comfortably north of his line for Sunday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a decent defence, but it’s primarily geared toward stopping the run. Through eight games, the Bucs’ defence ranks third in rush success rate and 20th in pass success rate.

As road underdogs, the Patriots could be put into more passing situations. And the warm Tampa weather shouldn’t deter an air attack, either.

Key stat: Maye is 6-3 vs. this prop, cashing in four of his past five starts.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 10 betting markets

Best NFL picks

Wilson over 29.5 receiving yards (-118): Wilson is not a big name by any means, but he’s worth knowing about in this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle has a stout defence that is particularly tough against the run (No. 1 in yards/attempt). In the passing game, the Seahawks’ primary tasks will be to stop Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 10!

I think Wilson can easily sneak in 30+ yards, especially with Jacoby Brissett sticking as Arizona’s QB1 for now. Wilson has hit these milestones in each of Brissett’s three starts:

4+ targets
3+ catches
40+ yards

Wilson is the clear WR2 for the Cardinals, garnering 76% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. He and Brissett seem to have a connection that’s worth tapping into.

LaPorta over 46.5 receiving yards (-118): The Detroit Lions lost a shocker at home last week against J.J. McCarthy’s Minnesota Vikings, but it wasn’t LaPorta’s fault.

LaPorta caught six of eight targets for 97 yards and a touchdown — his third score in the past four games.

He’s also 3-1 vs. this prop in his past four, and I’m loving the matchup on tap.

The Washington Commanders are allowing the most net yards per pass attempt (7.7), and their linebackers are among the worst coverage groups in the league.

According to Rotowire, Washington’s LBs have allowed a 106.9 passer rating, which ranks in the 10th percentile. LaPorta will likely match up against linebackers on most of his routes, so that’s worth noting.

In last year’s playoff matchup vs. Washington, LaPorta had six catches for 51 yards and a TD.

NFL prop bets made at 2:09 p.m. ET on 11/06/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Best NFL Week 10 prop bets: Drake Maye, Sam LaPorta have smash-play potential on Sunday

Drake Maye headlines this week’s NFL prop bets, with a pair of targets in the 4 p.m. slate as well.

The pregame narrative: Maye’s passing efficiency has been elite this season, and he is well equipped to exceed his yardage line in Week 10. Later on Sunday, Sam LaPorta has a Grade-A matchup in Washington.

Check out my top NFL Week 10 prop bets, featuring a prediction on Arizona Cardinals receiver Michael Wilson.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

NFL Week 10 prop bets

Best bet: Maye over 234.5 passing yards (-115)

The New England Patriots have been one of the surprise successes in the NFL this season. And Maye is easily the biggest reason why.

In his second NFL season, Maye has been an absolute star. He leads the league in completion rate (74.1%) despite also being among the leaders in average depth of target (8.9 yards, 82nd percentile).

-> Bet on Drake Maye’s prop markets vs. 49ers

According to RBSDM.com, Maye also ranks in the top five in these advanced metrics:

Success rate
EPA per play
Completion rate above expectation

This yardage line seems pretty low for someone who has been arguably the most efficient quarterback in the NFL, no? He’s certainly not the most high-volume passer, but he doesn’t have to be.

Maye is averaging 253.9 yards/game; that’s damn near 20 yards north of his line for Sunday.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a decent defence, but it’s primarily geared toward stopping the run. Through eight games, the Bucs’ defence ranks third in rush success rate and 20th in pass success rate.

As road underdogs, the Patriots could be put into more passing situations. And the warm Tampa weather shouldn’t deter an air attack, either.

Key stat: Maye is 6-3 vs. this prop, cashing in four of his past five starts.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 10 betting markets

Best NFL picks

Wilson over 27.5 receiving yards (-112): Wilson is not a big name by any means, but he’s worth knowing about in this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle has a stout defence that is particularly tough against the run (No. 1 in yards/attempt). In the passing game, the Seahawks’ primary tasks will be to stop Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 10!

I think Wilson can easily sneak in 30+ yards, especially with Jacoby Brissett sticking as Arizona’s QB1 for now. Wilson has hit these milestones in each of Brissett’s three starts:

4+ targets
3+ catches
40+ yards

Wilson is the clear WR2 for the Cardinals, garnering 76% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. He and Brissett seem to have a connection that’s worth tapping into.

LaPorta over 45.5 receiving yards (-113): The Detroit Lions lost a shocker at home last week against J.J. McCarthy’s Minnesota Vikings, but it wasn’t LaPorta’s fault.

LaPorta caught six of eight targets for 97 yards and a touchdown — his third score in the past four games.

He’s also 3-1 vs. this prop in his past four, and I’m loving the matchup on tap.

The Washington Commanders are allowing the most net yards per pass attempt (7.7), and their linebackers are among the worst coverage groups in the league.

According to Rotowire, Washington’s LBs have allowed a 106.9 passer rating, which ranks in the 10th percentile. LaPorta will likely match up against linebackers on most of his routes, so that’s worth noting.

In last year’s playoff matchup vs. Washington, LaPorta had six catches for 51 yards and a TD.

NFL prop bets made at 1:39 p.m. ET on 11/06/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

College football Week 11 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Oregon vs. Iowa, Florida State vs. Clemson

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings came out this week, which is a reminder that we’re approaching crunch time for the season.

The pregame narrative: In the Big Ten, the matchup of the week pits the Oregon Ducks against the Iowa Hawkeyes in one of college football’s most special venues. Elsewhere, the San Diego State Aztecs look to keep their CFP hopes alive in Hawaii.

Check out the best college football Week 11 picks, featuring a prediction for the Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers matchup.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on college football

College football picks Week 11

Best bet: Iowa +6.5 (-110)

Kinnick Stadium will be rocking Saturday as it hosts a playoff-calibre opponent for the second time this season.

In late September, the Indiana Hoosiers (now No. 2 in the country) came to Iowa City as 9-point favourites. Indiana clawed out an ugly, hard-fought win, 20-15.

No. 20 Iowa held Heisman Trophy contender Fernando Mendoza to a season-low 56.5% completion rate in that game. On the ground, the Hoosiers had a season-low 2.7 yards/rush.

Up next at Kinnick is No. 9 Oregon, a team that lost to the Hoosiers, 30-20, two weeks after their matchup against the Hawkeyes.

-> Bet on No. 20 Iowa to cover vs. No. 9 Oregon

Iowa’s path to a win (or at least a cover) involves long, grind-it-out possessions in the run game and stifling defence. Quarterback Mark Gronowski, who has at least one rushing TD in every game, is the X-factor.

Given that Oregon’s defence is better equipped to defend the pass, that formula makes sense. The Ducks’ defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.

Iowa is a home underdog for just the third time since the start of the 2021 season and has covered a +6.5 spread in every game this year. Oregon, meanwhile, is 2-3-1 ATS in its past six games

Key stat: The Hawkeyes are 10-7-2 ATS at home since the start of the 2023 season.

More college football best bets

Florida State +3 (-143): This ACC matchup would’ve been circled on the calendar in red pen before the season started. But now the stakes are pride and a path to bowl eligibility rather than CFP considerations.

It’s easy to paint an ugly picture for both teams’ seasons. But I think Clemson comes off as the uglier of the two.

-> Check out Week 11 NCAAF prop markets at NorthStar Bets

The Tigers are 1-4 straight up at home despite being favoured by more than a field goal each time. Keep in mind that Clemson went 29-4 at home over the previous five seasons.

In an attempt at positive spin on Florida State’s 4-4 season, I’ll say this:

All four losses came by one score.

Three of FSU’s losses came against currently ranked schools.

Oh, and the Seminoles did hand No. 4 Alabama its only loss of the season. That was more than two months ago, but it’s still a far greater accomplishment than anything Clemson has to its name.

Florida State also has the best playmakers in this matchup. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos leads the nation in yards per attempt (10.3), and receiver Micahi Danzy leads the ACC in yards per reception (24.0).

San Diego State -7 (-106): Could a one-loss San Diego State make the CFP? If the team keeps rolling like it is right now, I think so.

Since suffering a blowout loss at Washington State in Week 2, the Aztecs have ripped off six straight wins by a combined 132 points. They’re 6-0 ATS in that span and have covered this number five times.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Saturday’s college football action!

Hawaii is a dangerous squad that has three upset wins in its past four games. But I don’t view these teams on a level playing field.

SDSU ranks eighth in NCAA Division I in EPA per play; Hawaii ranks 85th.

Their two common opponents are Fresno State and Colorado State. The Aztecs went 2-0 with a +44 point differential in those games, while Hawaii went 1-1 with a +10 point differential.

College football picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 11/06/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

College football Week 11 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Oregon vs. Iowa, Florida State vs. Clemson

The first set of College Football Playoff rankings came out this week, which is a reminder that we’re approaching crunch time for the season.

The pregame narrative: In the Big Ten, the matchup of the week pits the Oregon Ducks against the Iowa Hawkeyes in one of college football’s most special venues. Elsewhere, the San Diego State Aztecs look to keep their CFP hopes alive in Hawaii.

Check out the best college football Week 11 picks, featuring a prediction for the Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers matchup.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on college football

College football picks Week 11

Best bet: Iowa +6.5 (-112)

Kinnick Stadium will be rocking Saturday as it hosts a playoff-calibre opponent for the second time this season.

In late September, the Indiana Hoosiers (now No. 2 in the country) came to Iowa City as 9-point favourites. Indiana clawed out an ugly, hard-fought win, 20-15.

No. 20 Iowa held Heisman Trophy contender Fernando Mendoza to a season-low 56.5% completion rate in that game. On the ground, the Hoosiers had a season-low 2.7 yards/rush.

Up next at Kinnick is No. 9 Oregon, a team that lost to the Hoosiers, 30-20, two weeks after their matchup against the Hawkeyes.

-> Bet on No. 20 Iowa to cover vs. No. 9 Oregon

Iowa’s path to a win (or at least a cover) involves long, grind-it-out possessions in the run game and stifling defence. Quarterback Mark Gronowski, who has at least one rushing TD in every game, is the X-factor.

Given that Oregon’s defence is better equipped to defend the pass, that formula makes sense. The Ducks’ defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.

Iowa is a home underdog for just the third time since the start of the 2021 season and has covered a +6.5 spread in every game this year. Oregon, meanwhile, is 2-3-1 ATS in its past six games

Key stat: The Hawkeyes are 10-7-2 ATS at home since the start of the 2023 season.

Embed: #120706

More college football best bets

Florida State +3 (-125): This ACC matchup would’ve been circled on the calendar in red pen before the season started. But now the stakes are pride and a path to bowl eligibility rather than CFP considerations.

It’s easy to paint an ugly picture for both teams’ seasons. But I think Clemson comes off as the uglier of the two.

-> Check out Week 11 NCAAF prop markets at NorthStar Bets

The Tigers are 1-4 straight up at home despite being favoured by more than a field goal each time. Keep in mind that Clemson went 29-4 at home over the previous five seasons.

In an attempt at positive spin on Florida State’s 4-4 season, I’ll say this:

All four losses came by one score.

Three of FSU’s losses came against currently ranked schools.

Oh, and the Seminoles did hand No. 4 Alabama its only loss of the season. That was more than two months ago, but it’s still a far greater accomplishment than anything Clemson has to its name.

Florida State also has the best playmakers in this matchup. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos leads the nation in yards per attempt (10.3), and receiver Micahi Danzy leads the ACC in yards per reception (24.0).

San Diego State -7 (-108): Could a one-loss San Diego State make the CFP? If the team keeps rolling like it is right now, I think so.

Since suffering a blowout loss at Washington State in Week 2, the Aztecs have ripped off six straight wins by a combined 132 points. They’re 6-0 ATS in that span and have covered this number five times.

Hawaii is a dangerous squad that has three upset wins in its past four games. But I don’t view these teams on a level playing field.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Saturday’s college football action!

SDSU ranks eighth in NCAA Division I in EPA per play; Hawaii ranks 85th.

Their two common opponents are Fresno State and Colorado State. The Aztecs went 2-0 with a +44 point differential in those games, while Hawaii went 1-1 with a +10 point differential.

College football picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 11/06/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Warriors vs. Kings SGP predictions Nov. 5: Fade offence, look for Draymond Green to contribute

It’s an all-NorCal showdown on Wednesday at Golden 1 Center, where the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Steph Curry (illness) will miss tonight’s game, which helps explain why the Warriors are underdogs against the 2-5 Kings. Sacramento was off last night after wrapping up a four-game road trip.

Check out my Warriors vs. Kings SGP predictions for Nov. 5, featuring Draymond Green and Zach LaVine.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NBA

Warriors vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Green over 12.5 rebounds/assists | LaVine 3+ threes | Under 237.5 points (+335)

Green over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-115): Green is averaging exactly 12.5 rebounds/assists through eight games, and tonight’s situation feels like one that should lead to an over.

Jimmy Butler, who’s third on Golden State in rebounds and second in assists, exited last night’s game with a back issue. He is questionable to play tonight.

Curry, who’s third on the team in assists, has been ruled out with an illness.

-> Bet on Draymond Green on Wednesday night

Green is already the Warriors assists leader (6.4 APG), and with Curry out at point guard, he should see heightened responsibilities as a passer.

From a rebounding standpoint, the Kings don’t have a lot of fearsome players on the glass after NBA rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis.

As a whole, Sacramento ranks 28th in rebounding rate (47.0%).

Embed: #120692

NBA SGP legs

LaVine 3+ threes (-190): LaVine was the best 3-point shooter in the NBA last year, cashing from deep at a 44.6% clip. That was No. 1 among 177 players averaging at least four 3-point attempts per game.

Understandably, he has continued to lean into his beyond-the-arc shooting. So far this season, he’s attempting a career-high 8.6 threes/game.

Though his success rate hasn’t been as high (38.3 3PT%), LaVine’s shot volume means this milestone should be good most nights.

-> Bet on NBA futures at NorthStar Bets

He’s 4-3 vs. this prop, with multiple 3s in six of seven games.

LaVine has attempted 8+ threes in five of seven games.

LaVine is 8-for-18 from deep at home this season, cashing this 3s milestone in both games.

He’s also 3-1 vs. this milestone in his past four matchups against the Warriors (since January 2024).

Under 237.5 points (-286): Even in Year 17, Curry is still the primary offensive driver for the Warriors. His absence tonight leads me to believe that this matchup is headed for a fairly low point total.

In their past 10 regular season games without Curry, the Warriors have averaged 105.5 points. The average total in those games was 212.9 points.

The Warriors have gone under 237.5 points in four consecutive games (and Curry played in each of those).

Keep in mind that Butler could miss tonight’s game, too. That would leave Golden State with zero players averaging 17.0 PPG or more.

The Kings and Warriors rank 14th and 20th, respectively, in pace. So it’s not like this game should be expected to turn into a track meet.

Both teams rank outside the top 10 in offensive rating as well, and with at least one notable star on the sidelines, they should stay under this number.

Warriors vs. Kings predictions made at 3:20 p.m. ET 11/05/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

Raiders vs. Broncos TNF Week 10 SGP predictions: Expect a huge game from Brock Bowers on Thursday

The best and the worst of the AFC West will clash on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.

The pregame narrative: Riding a six-game win streak, the Denver Broncos are two-score favourites at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders’ season is moving in the wrong direction, but at least their best player, Brock Bowers, is back in the mix.

Check out my Raiders vs. Broncos predictions in this +400 same-game parlay, featuring a prop bet on Troy Franklin.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Raiders vs. Broncos predictions

SGP: Bowers over 5.5 catches | Franklin over 3.5 catches | Raiders +12.5 (+250)

Bowers over 5.5 catches (-163): After sitting out all of October with a knee injury, Bowers returned last week to remind everyone that he’s an elite offensive weapon.

The runner-up for 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year posted his best NFL game so far, hauling in 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns.

I expect a mountain of targets to come Bowers’ way this week, and not just because he deserves them. Frankly, the Raiders don’t have many other options.

-> Bet on Brock Bowers prop markets for TNF

After trading away top wideout Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, Bowers is by far the best pass-catcher left. He’ll be flanked by the likes of Tre Tucker, rookie Jack Bech and a washed-up Tyler Lockett.

Remember, Bowers set the NFL rookie record for catches last season (112). He had eight catches, 97 yards and a touchdown on the road against Denver.

Denver will obviously be keying on him, which might make it more difficult for him to rack up yards downfield. But the Raiders should still be doing whatever it takes to get the ball into No. 89’s hands.

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Franklin over 3.5 catches (-175): Courtland Sutton is still the clear WR1 for the Broncos, but Franklin’s usage can’t be ignored.

The second-year receiver leads the Broncos in targets (64) and is second in receptions (37).

That equates to 7.1 targets and 4.1 catches per game.

-> Build your own Thursday Night Football SGP!

The arrow is pointing up for Franklin, a former college teammate of Denver quarterback Bo Nix. In the past three games, Franklin has 28 total targets — good for a hefty 28.0% target share on routes run.

In the same three-game span, Sutton had 22 targets (22.4% target share on routes run).

There’s room for both receivers to succeed. Sutton has more downfield potential, while Franklin is more of a short-yardage safety valve who wants to make things happen after the catch.

Franklin is 5-4 vs. this prop and has at least three catches in eight games. His floor is high, and it’s rising.

Raiders +12.5 (-167): Las Vegas is 0-3 with a -82 point differential in its past three road games. By itself, that stat should make this a clear stay-away spot.

Bowers missed the two most thorough beatdowns in that stretch, though, and his presence on the field gives me hope that the Raiders can at least keep this modestly close.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 10 betting markets

In three games without their star tight end, the Raiders have mustered just 8.7 points and 205.7 yards per game.

With Bowers, though, they’ve averaged 21.2 points and 329.8 yards over five games.

Las Vegas is 4-1 vs. this inflated spread when Bowers is playing. Denver, meanwhile, has only won by a double-digit margin in two of nine games.

Raiders vs. Broncos predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 11/05/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Spurs vs. Lakers prop picks Nov. 5: Fade Doncic, bet on Wembanyama from 3-point range

Two of the most exciting stars in the NBA will meet tonight, as Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers host Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs.

The latest: Doncic has scored 40+ points in three of four games so far and will once again headline a Lakers squad that’s missing LeBron James. Wembanyama, meanwhile, has played as a more traditional big this season but could opt to attack the Lakers from deep.

Check out my Spurs vs. Lakers picks for Wednesday, Nov. 5, featuring Julian Champagnie.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NBA today!

Spurs vs. Lakers picks

Best bet: Doncic under 32.5 points (-110)

Doncic has been on fire through four games, and I get that NBA fans (and bettors) might not want this run to end.

But that’s not how life works, and even a guy like Doncic isn’t going to average 41.3 points per game for a season.

Tonight’s matchup against San Antonio is a logical come-back-to-Earth game. The Spurs’ defence has been elite in the first couple of weeks:

1st in PPG
2nd in defensive rating
2nd in defensive rebound rate
3rd in blocks
4th in opponent FG%

Wembanyama, who leads the NBA in defensive rebounds and blocks per game, is certainly the key cog in all of this. But defence is played collectively, so I still think Doncic will be challenged even if he tries to dodge the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 superstar.

-> Check out tonight’s Spurs vs. Lakers prop markets

Also, avoiding Wembanyama in the offensive halfcourt is a lot easier said than done.

Wemby is staying home in the paint a lot more now than in past years, and with his length, that means he can challenge anything inside the perimeter on a consistent basis.

Doncic attempts 40% of his shots from mid-range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 65th percentile. The Spurs allow the sixth-lowest FG% on mid-range shots.

Key stat: Doncic failed to hit the 30-point mark in any of his three matchups vs. the Spurs last season (and Wemby only played in one of those games).

-> Wager on Wednesday’s 11-game NBA slate

Wembanyama prop prediction

Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (-125): Wembanyama averaged 3.1 threes last year on a whopping 8.8 attempts. When he’s given the green light, he’s happy to let it fly.

His 3-point volume has been drastically scaled back this year (3.5 attempts/game), but I still think it’s too early to put a ton of stock into that.

-> Bet on Doncic and Wemby in Los Angeles!

Do I expect Wembanyama to return to nearly nine 3s attempted on a nightly basis? Certainly not. But somewhere in the range of five or six 3s wouldn’t surprise me.

Wembanyama has attempted 5+ threes in three of his past four games.

As a rookie in 2023-24, he averaged 5.5 attempted 3s per night.

Wembanyama went 2-0 vs. this prop against L.A. last year, and this year’s Lakers are yielding the seventh-most attempted 3s per game.

Champagnie over 1.5 threes (-130): Though he’s not a household name like Wembanyama, Champagnie comes in at almost the same price for the same prop market. Count me in.

The undrafted wing attempts corner 3s on 41% of his shots, which is the highest rate in the NBA.

L.A. allows the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (41.0%).

Last season, Champagnie went 3-1 vs. this prop when facing the Lakers. He averaged 6.5 attempted 3s per game.

He hasn’t gotten off to a great start from beyond the arc, mind you, but the 24-year-old has attempted at least four 3-pointers in four of his past five games.

Spurs vs. Lakers picks made at 11:36 a.m. ET on 11/05/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Raiders vs. Broncos TNF Week 10 SGP predictions: Expect a huge game from Brock Bowers on Thursday

The best and the worst of the AFC West will clash on Thursday Night Football in Week 10.

The pregame narrative: Riding a six-game win streak, the Denver Broncos are two-score favourites at home against the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders’ season is moving in the wrong direction, but at least their best player, Brock Bowers, is back in the mix.

Check out my Raiders vs. Broncos predictions in this +400 same-game parlay, featuring a prop bet on Troy Franklin.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Raiders vs. Broncos predictions

SGP: Bowers 7+ catches | Franklin 4+ catches | Raiders +14.5 (+400)

Bowers 7+ catches (+118): After sitting out all of October with a knee injury, Bowers returned last week to remind everyone that he’s an elite offensive weapon.

The runner-up for 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year posted his best NFL game so far, hauling in 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns.

I expect a mountain of targets to come Bowers’ way this week, and not just because he deserves them. Frankly, the Raiders don’t have many other options.

-> Bet on Brock Bowers prop markets for TNF

After trading away top wideout Jakobi Meyers at the deadline, Bowers is by far the best pass-catcher left. He’ll be flanked by the likes of Tre Tucker, rookie Jack Bech and a washed-up Tyler Lockett.

Remember, Bowers set the NFL rookie record for catches last season (112). He had eight catches, 97 yards and a touchdown on the road against Denver.

Denver will obviously be keying on him, which might make it more difficult for him to rack up yards downfield. But the Raiders should still be doing whatever it takes to get the ball into No. 89’s hands.

Embed: #120676

Thursday Night Football SGP picks

Franklin 4+ catches (-148): Courtland Sutton is still the clear WR1 for the Broncos, but Franklin’s usage can’t be ignored.

The second-year receiver leads the Broncos in targets (64) and is second in receptions (37).

That equates to 7.1 targets and 4.1 catches per game.

-> Build your own Thursday Night Football SGP!

The arrow is pointing up for Franklin, a former college teammate of Denver quarterback Bo Nix. In the past three games, Franklin has 28 total targets — good for a hefty 28.0% target share on routes run.

In the same three-game span, Sutton had 22 targets (22.4% target share on routes run).

There’s room for both receivers to succeed. Sutton has more downfield potential, while Franklin is more of a short-yardage safety valve who wants to make things happen after the catch.

Franklin is 5-4 vs. this prop and has at least three catches in eight games. His floor is high, and it’s rising.

Raiders +14.5 (-220): Las Vegas is 0-3 with a -82 point differential in its past three road games. By itself, that stat should make this a clear stay-away spot.

Bowers missed the two most thorough beatdowns in that stretch, though, and his presence on the field gives me hope that the Raiders can at least keep this modestly close.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 10 betting markets

In three games without their star tight end, the Raiders have mustered just 8.7 points and 205.7 yards per game.

With Bowers, though, they’ve averaged 21.2 points and 329.8 yards over five games.

Las Vegas is 4-1 vs. this inflated spread when Bowers is playing. Denver, meanwhile, has only won by a double-digit margin in two of nine games.

Raiders vs. Broncos predictions made at 11:25 a.m. ET 11/05/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

Spurs vs. Lakers prop picks Nov. 5: Fade Doncic, bet on Wembanyama from 3-point range

Two of the most exciting stars in the NBA will meet tonight, as Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers host Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs.

The latest: Doncic has scored 40+ points in three of four games so far and will once again headline a Lakers squad that’s missing LeBron James. Wembanyama, meanwhile, has played as a more traditional big this season but could opt to attack the Lakers from deep.

Check out my Spurs vs. Lakers picks for Wednesday, Nov. 5, featuring Julian Champagnie.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NBA today!

Spurs vs. Lakers picks

Best bet: Doncic under 33.5 points (-124)

Doncic has been on fire through four games, and I get that NBA fans (and bettors) might not want this run to end.

But that’s not how life works, and even a guy like Doncic isn’t going to average 41.3 points per game for a season.

Tonight’s matchup against San Antonio is a logical come-back-to-Earth game. The Spurs’ defence has been elite in the first couple of weeks:

1st in PPG
2nd in defensive rating
2nd in defensive rebound rate
3rd in blocks
4th in opponent FG%

Wembanyama, who leads the NBA in defensive rebounds and blocks per game, is certainly the key cog in all of this. But defence is played collectively, so I still think Doncic will be challenged even if he tries to dodge the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 superstar.

-> Check out tonight’s Spurs vs. Lakers prop markets

Also, avoiding Wembanyama in the offensive halfcourt is a lot easier said than done.

Wemby is staying home in the paint a lot more now than in past years, and with his length, that means he can challenge anything inside the perimeter on a consistent basis.

Doncic attempts 40% of his shots from mid-range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 65th percentile. The Spurs allow the sixth-lowest FG% on mid-range shots.

Key stat: Doncic failed to hit the 30-point mark in any of his three matchups vs. the Spurs last season (and Wemby only played in one of those games).

Embed: #120671

-> Wager on Wednesday’s 11-game NBA slate

Wembanyama prop prediction

Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (-112): Wembanyama averaged 3.1 threes last year on a whopping 8.8 attempts. When he’s given the green light, he’s happy to let it fly.

His 3-point volume has been drastically scaled back this year (3.5 attempts/game), but I still think it’s too early to put a ton of stock into that.

-> Bet on Doncic and Wemby in Los Angeles!

Do I expect Wembanyama to return to nearly nine 3s attempted on a nightly basis? Certainly not. But somewhere in the range of five or six 3s wouldn’t surprise me.

Wembanyama has attempted 5+ threes in three of his past four games.

As a rookie in 2023-24, he averaged 5.5 attempted 3s per night.

Wembanyama went 2-0 vs. this prop against L.A. last year, and this year’s Lakers are yielding the seventh-most attempted 3s per game.

Champagnie over 1.5 threes (-106): Though he’s not a household name like Wembanyama, Champagnie comes in at almost the same price for the same prop market. Count me in.

The undrafted wing attempts corner 3s on 41% of his shots, which is the highest rate in the NBA.

L.A. allows the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (41.0%).

Last season, Champagnie went 3-1 vs. this prop when facing the Lakers. He averaged 6.5 attempted 3s per game.

He hasn’t gotten off to a great start from beyond the arc, mind you, but the 24-year-old has attempted at least four 3-pointers in four of his past five games.

Spurs vs. Lakers picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 11/05/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!