Saturday afternoon’s marquee matchup features the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners, who square off in a game with major implications for the SEC standings.
The pregame narrative: No. 4 Alabama looks to stay perfect in the SEC with a win, while No. 11 Oklahoma would be on shaky ground in the College Football Playoff picture with a loss. Later on, the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes are home against Nico Iamaleava’s UCLA Bruins in what should be a laugher.
Check out the best college football Week 12 picks, featuring a prediction for the TCU Horned Frogs vs. BYU Cougars matchup.
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College football picks Week 12
Best bet: Iamaleava under 29.5 rushing yards (-120)
With a dearth of talent around him, Iamaleava has been forced to use his legs quite a bit throughout the season for three-win UCLA.
I’m sure the third-year quarterback — who transferred from Tennessee last offseason — intends to create his own chunk plays on Saturday night in Columbus. But the No. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes should be ready for him.
Ohio State has a handful of Sunday-ready talents, including a pair of linebackers that are tracking for first-round draft status this spring (Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles).
I could see Reese wrecking things at the line of scrimmage, with Styles spying from the second level.
-> Fade UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava vs. No. 1 Ohio State
- Ohio State has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (81.5) and the sixth-fewest yards per rush (2.8).
- The Buckeyes also average the fifth-highest sack rate (9.87%). That’s notable because sacks count against quarterback rushing yards.
Iamaleava is averaging over 50 rushing yards per game, so this line would typically seem far too low for him. But the under is 3-1 in his past four games, and now he’ll face arguably the toughest matchup possible.
From a game script standpoint, UCLA should be in a position to throw most of the game. After all, the Bruins are 33.5-point road dogs.
Key stat: Opposing quarterbacks have gone under 29.5 rushing yards in seven straight games vs. Ohio State. And five of those QBs finished with negative yards.
More college football best bets
Oklahoma/Alabama under 45.5 points (-109): Oklahoma’s past two games have hit the over, but that was against a pair of run-and-gun offences (Tennessee, Ole Miss).
Unders are still 7-2 on the year for the Sooners, and I expect defence to rule the day in Tuscaloosa.
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- Oklahoma’s defence ranks No. 1 in success rate, No. 7 in points and No. 16 in EPA per play.
- Alabama’s defence ranks No. 27 in success rate, No. 13 in points and No. 25 in EPA per play.
With two unequivocally top-30 defences on the field, I can’t imagine this game getting into the upper-40s.
Unders are 5-1 in Bama’s past six games, and last year’s head-to-head meeting finished with 27 total points.
BYU -4.5 (-108): Home-field advantage should mean something in Saturday’s late-night showdown between unranked TCU and No. 12 BYU.
- TCU is 0-3 ATS on the road in Big 12 play, including a 13-point loss at Kansas State as a 3-point favourite.
- BYU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home this season, most recently earning an upset win over Utah.
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Last week, the Horned Frogs lost at home as 7.5-point favourites against Iowa State … a team the Cougars beat by 14 points two weeks prior.
BYU starting running back LJ Martin is reportedly good to go after playing just parts of the past two games due to injury.
Before getting hurt on Oct. 25, Martin led the Big 12 in rushing and was sixth in NCAA Division I. Though TCU has a stout run defence, Martin’s presence should allow BYU to deploy a more well-rounded offence.
The Cougars are 6-3 ATS on the season (4-2 ATS as favourites), per Team Rankings.
College football picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 11/12/2025.
